NOVEMBER 25: The Seattle organization has announced the signing.
NOVEMBER 22: The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White are in agreement on a six-year, $24MM contract that contains three club options, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). The contract, which can max out at $55.5MM if the options are exercised (via Robert Murray), locks up a key piece of the Mariners’ future before he even sets foot in the Majors. White is represented by True Gravity Baseball.
White, the No. 17 overall pick in the 2017 draft, spent the 2019 campaign with the Mariners’ Double-A in Arkansas, where he batted .293/.350/.488 with 18 home runs, 13 doubles, two triples, a 7.3 percent walk rate and a 23 percent strikeout rate in 400 plate appearances. Those numbers were particularly impressive in a pitcher-friendly setting, evidenced by White’s robust 132 wRC+ (indicating that he was 32 percent better at the plate than the average hitter in the Texas League).
From a broader offensive standpoint, the University of Kentucky product has performed well throughout his minor league tenure. He hit .277/.345/.532 in a tiny sample of 14 games of short-season Class-A ball in 2017 after being drafted and followed that up with a .303/.375/.458 slash in a full season at Class-A Advanced in 2018.
White is also regarded as a superlative defensive first baseman, with scouting reports at FanGraphs and MLB.com pegging him as a 70-grade defender. He currently ranks in the game’s top 100 overall prospects at MLB.com (No. 58), Baseball America (No. 73) and FanGraphs (No. 77).
The extension in many ways mirrors the long-term deal signed by Scott Kingery just prior to the 2018 season. As was the case with Kingery at the time, White is a 23-year-old top prospect who is widely expected to be a key contributor for his club in the near future. Both deals guaranteed the player $24MM over six years, though Kingery’s option years are valued at a slightly higher rate, as his contract can max out at $65MM. That’s perhaps reflective of the fact that Kingery, unlike White, had already played in Triple-A and was perhaps on the cusp of making the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training. White, meanwhile, could still be ticketed for some Triple-A time to being the 2020 season, although the long-term deal should increase his chances of breaking camp with the team. There’s no longer any reason to play service-time games and option him to Triple-A if he convinces the team of his MLB readiness with a strong spring effort.
White is suddenly the only player on the Mariners’ roster signed to a guaranteed contract beyond the 2021 season. The 2020 campaign will be a pivotal one for the “reimagining” Mariners, as they’ll get their first glimpse at White and quite possibly (later in the summer) at vaunted outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic (acquired in last winter’s Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade). Lengthy auditions for lefty Justus Sheffield, righty Justin Dunn and outfielders Kyle Lewis and Jake Fraley — each of whom made his MLB debut in 2019 — are likely on the 2020 docket as well.
Hopefully he can hit.
Based on his Minors production, he has proven that he can hit also he’s a better fielder than Vogelbach, who is a DH at best.
Hitting in the minors proves you can in the majors?
Exactly I’ll have to ask Brandon Wood that very question
No, but it proves he can hit in the minors, which is better than guys who can’t hit in the minors. And he’s been much better than league average in the minors and hit well in a great pitching environment. That means he has a better chance to be good at the major league level than someone who can’t hit in the minors.
Double A didn’t use a juiced ball, so that helps.
@bush1
I don’t think MLB used juiced balls either. I think it was something else that was juiced at the MLB level. Just a matter of time before testing catches up to it.
It was the ball, not your baseless theory about steroids.
It was the ball. MLB and AAA used the same ball and both had the same results
That would mean 70% of major league hitters were juicing in 2019. Do you still think that?
so I guess we should not base our prospects in hitting in the minors for performance evaluation….
No, but it proves he can hit in the minors
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Not really. He had a .838 OPS in AA at age 23 with a 92/29 K/W. He has less than a 1,000 minor league ABs altogether. Jon Singleton was a much better AA hitter, at a much younger age, and bombed completely when he signed long-term..
“That means he has a better chance to be good at the major league level than someone who can’t hit in the minors.”
That goes without saying, but is also fairly meaningless.
Joe, you’re not taking into account park factors. He hit much better on the road than at RHH-killing DSP and he had the second highest exit velocity among Mariner prospects last season.
None of that proves he can hit MLB pitching, as each and every player has to prove that themselves, but it does help explain why the Mariners are confident enough in him to get this contract done before even reaching AAA.
And he has just over 1000 PA’s in the minors. He might need more, but we’ll have to wait and see.
@T_Rexx2
Knowing he can hit in the minors isn’t saying much. I don’t know much about his potential or projections but his numbers aren’t really that impressive to be worthy of a 6/$24 mil deal.
Just as an example, Luis Torrens is the same age, a catcher and hit .300/.373/.500 w 15 homers.
White might turn out to be a good player but he doesn’t look as promising as some of the more elite-ish prospects we’ve seen put in mlb work before tasting big money. And the fact that he’s “only” a 1B makes it even more perplexing.
Yeah. Extending further, hitting for one season in AA proves you can in the majors?
So, based on MiLB, a guy has proven he can hit. Darn it. The Marlins should have signed Jake Marisnick, Lewis Brinson, Chris Agila, Darrell Whitmore, Nigel Wilson, Jeremy Hermida, etc. to long term deals when they were in the minors.
Brad Kominsk and Jim Lindeman sure wish that they were playing right now. Lastings Milledge and Domonic Brown second that motion. Jason Heyward is not sure what he thinks because he got paid…but that’s because his skills with his bat made him the best motivational speaker in MLB history.
How did hessman or he sop choi work out in the majors? Rake the minors, couldn’t hit the side of a barn in the majors. SHould have at least waited a year into the majors or a call up before this.
I don’t really get this. Even if he is good enough to have all his team options picked up this guy will be making $20 million more than Ozzie Albies over the same period of time. Ozzie plays 2nd base, hits for more power and had actually already proven himself as a good if not great major league player over the course of more than a full major league season and Ozzie got a 9-year $35 million contract. This guy gets a 9 year $55 million contract? He hit for less power and a lower average than Ozzie and he had the benefit of facing AA pitchers. He hasn’t even sniffed triple A yet. Not to mention he plays first base which is a position that typically goes to very offensively gifted players. How is a double A first baseman that doesn’t hit as well as Ozzie Albies worth $20 million more than Ozzie Albies? I mean honestly… Let’s take a vote: Who would everyone rather have? This guy or Ozzie Albies?
My vote is Ozzie Albies even if it didn’t come with the extra $20 million. That cash just makes it so much sweeter though.
Ozzie Albies’ deal should not be the market value for a young players extension. Ozzie’s deal is an absolute steal for the organization. That’s not going to become a trend. Ozzie and his reps got taken to the cleaners.
There is no reason to debate talent. Albies’ contract is simply an egregious atrocity.
the word atrocity is usually used to describe things like the Holocaust or the world poverty or homeless problem not when somebody gets absolutely stinking rich. This is exactly what’s wrong with American culture
This is exactly what’s wrong with American culture
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But what’s right about American culture is that we do not get hung up on every single word people write or say.
Americans understand that the writing was not comparing someone’s salary to the Holocaust.
You should also take into account the extremely negative offensive park factor of the Mariners AA affiliate. Kyle Lewis showed you can’t really trust the stats from Arkansas as a predictor of MLB performance. White is likely to hit much better than you think.
Kyle Lewis only got 73 abs in the bigs and posted a sub .300 OBP while striking out in about 40% of those ABS. I don’t think you can determine anything from that. Certainly not a negative offensive park factor.
He launched some HRS but that could’ve simply been a mirage. Everything else about his offensive game looked bad. We’ll see this year.
All RH hitters in Arkansas were negatively impacted by the park factors there. Lewis and White’s Home/Away splits showed significant differences. Lewis’ MLB performance was far more in line with his Away splits.
White’s splits
Home: 181 PA 260/309/408 with 5 HR
Road: 219 PA 321/384/556 with 13 HR
He is much more likely to be a better hitter than what many who simply just look at his aggregate statline think.
Maybe but again that’s a double A stat line for a guy with a 30% minor league K rate. He’s going to need to connect more with the bat or he’s not going to be much of anything. He’s obviously got more pop but the whole hitting profile really isn’t there yet.
White doesn’t have a 30% K rate, it was 23% (16.8 kS%) last season and that’s the highest it’s been in pro ball, with exception to his 4-game fill-in at AAA in 2018.
Also had a .195 ISO and a 132 wRC+ in AA and those numbers include the DSP experience. If his road numbers represent a better reflection of where he’s at and what he’s capable of, this deal makes a lot of sense.
If you were talking about Lewis, I would point out that the stat line xcfan shared was White’s.
But Lewis’ career K% isn’t 30%, either. It was 28.5% last I checked. He absolutely has to make more and better contact, though. He’s not as polished as White.
It was Lewis. And 28.5 and 30 are well within the ballpark of each other. Anything that close to 30 in the minor leagues is a gigantic red flag.
@xcfan
Jack Fraley is on the same team, is 1 year older and posted much better stats @ AA and across both AA and AAA slashed .298/.365/.545 w/ 27 homers.
I just don’t understand why a non-elite hitter still in AA requires such an aggressive move to extend with his numbers at AA. I also think it sends the wrong message to their other prospects. How does Jarred Kelenic feel about it? He’s their best prospect and best hitter. You would think he’s the guy you would prioritize first.
How does Jarred Kelenic feel about it? He’s their best prospect and best hitter. You would think he’s the guy you would prioritize first.
_____
I’d say he’d be excited about the possibilities for himself. If the organization gives their #5-ranked prospect a contract like that after a decent (and only decent) year at AA, imagine what they’ll be willing to give him after say… a solid-to-good rookie year. Talk about one heck of a green flag for not playing service-time BS and willingness to lock in youth.
Maybe Evans agent is smarter? Probably not.
I like Ozzie.
They say Evan is Will Clark 2.0 =offensive and defensively.
Oh no! Will Clark 2.0…. Based on talent and minor league stats? If he ends up being the beta version of Clark, Sea will be lucky. And I like White. I’m not ripping him. At one time Smoak was called Will Clark 2.0. Jason Heyward was called Hank Aaron 2.0. I get worried everytime I hear 2.0 version. Jerome Williams was Dwight Gooden 2.0 Until we found out he topped out around 90 not 100 (which scouts said he could do)
That’s more of a reflection on how bad Albies’ deal was than White’s deal is.
Worth noting that White had significant home-road splits, hitting for far more power on the road (much like Lewis). He made adjustments the year before, so while this is a gamble, this is one one that could pay off really well for the Mariners.
This also allows them to not stress service time and give him a legitimate opportunity to start the Season in Seattle, rather than AAA. There have been rumblings that Seattle’s management believes he’s ready now. This deal would seem to support that.
I’m gonna assume that the guy that said Albies deal was atrocious also meant that Albies deal was atrociously good for the franchise that signed him. So I guess so far that’s 10 votes for Albies and 0 votes for Evan. Not looking good Mr. White. Not looking good.
Ozzie Albies signed the worst contract in MLB history. That should never be used as a barometer.
@myaccount
What am I missing here? Is that sarcasm? How is Albie’s contract bad?
Albies must have negotiated that K himself after spending a night at the Holiday Inn.
I’ve been offering trade proposals for this guy on here for a couple years. He’s an elite defensive player who’s believed to have what it takes to play MLB first base for nine years. Good signing, not sure how his power translates in Seattle. I’d of rather kept Kelly, traded Carpenter with/out extending him (a couple years ago), and of traded Weaver for him. I liked Weaver and usually don’t (over)value 1st basemen
Sounds like you should be Ozzie’s agent! Sounds like his did him a disservice.
People have been saying Albies’ agents did him bad since his contract came public.
6 for 25 on the low end, not $55, buys out the arb and raise years.
First, in regards exclusively to the Albies comparison, it’s unfair because Albies signed what is probably one of the most ridiculously team-friendly deals in recent memory. No one will compare well. This was written about extensively at the time.
Second, the major team boons for this contract are also well-discussed. It’s only $24M guaranteed over 6 seasons (the other $31M are spread out over 3 team option seasons). If White doesn’t get called up at all in Year 1 and then net performs league average for the next 5, he will have accumulated a net of 10 WAR which — not accounting for future inflation — is currently worth about $75-80M. Even if he’s a complete bust, the organization will be out the cost of a middling role player or reliever (aside: this is also why the Albies contract is so ridiculously team-friendly). If White’s 2019 was real — something internal and external prospect rankings seem to believe — he could easily eclipse that dollar value even in normal arbitration gains throughout his first 6 seasons. Also, as mentioned here and on Mariners-exclusive blogs, it sends the organizational message that they want to sign mutually beneficial contracts with all of their young players. If this already-very-low-risk,-team-friendly contract helps net others, then it’s a huge deal going forward. It would be like if Albies signed his deal because the Braves were friendly to a teammate and buddy in that imaginary, but also team-friendly contract extension.
The thing that worries me the most about this contract is a statement I have heard many major league players say. The difference between facing triple A pitchers and major league pitchers is waaaay bigger than the difference between facing rookie ball pitchers and triple A pitchers. There are tons of guys that can absolutely crush triple A pitchers but could never come close to making it it the majors because the jump was too big. I can’t imagine making that jump even bigger by having to make it from double A. If he makes the jump straight to the majors next year, my guess is that he will hut pretty well for the first month or so just until MLB pitchers can figure him out. Then he will become a hole in the lineup for the last 5 months of the season. It’s gonna be Austin Riley 2.0 except without all the power that Riley has. At least Riley hit 18 homers during the short period he was good. This guy won’t touch that.
I know you can find millions that didn’t but A Jones hit like an all-star after making the jump straight I believe.
Jones did but had a call up and was in the playoffs. Still waiting on the andruw w jones break out season….
While a completely valid issue to bring up, in terms of contract value, that’s an extremely low risk. This is worth all of $24M over 6 years. If White needs two more full seasons in the minors (roster projection have him at 1/2) and is glove-only 1B à la Doug Mientkiewicz (who was straight up bad his first 4 seasons), the dollar value of his contract would be $26M in current $/ WAR values. If he performs anything better than a bench option, the deal is comes out on top.
And all of that precludes any potential benefits to the organization in other contract negotiations. How teams treat other players does play a role in those things.
Hopefully he does better than Johnny Singleton. He only signed his contract to have guaranteed money for weed and ended up suspended; very poor work ethic. Hopefully that’s not the case with this boy.
Why
So that they control him at a fair team price for an extra three years if he performs how they expect. And if he doesn’t perform well, he gets to fall back on $24 million.
Wouldn’t he have to play like a near-superstar in order to earn more than $24M over the next six years? Even if he was a Super-2, he’d be hard-pressed to earn arbitration raises big enough to out-earn this contract.
Good for the players, I guess. They needed a win.
If JBJ is in line for $11M in year 3 of arbitration (after $8M last year) he would NOT have to play like a super star to make $24M over 6 years. Mariners are taking a gamble for sure, but the real value here is in the option years. If he does become a star, they will have a bargain on their hands for his last 3 years of this deal. This is really a win-win deal for both sides.
not when super stars can earn up to 30+ million or more their last 2 years
Love it! He’s going to be a gamer for years.
26 and is in AA, he could become a 4A player. Numbers alone, he is a suspect.
If you’re talking about White, he is 23 and will turn 24 in April.
He’s 23
AA is widely considered to be the more competitive league these days.
You shouldn’t comment on a player with no knowledge in regards to them.
don’t let this distract you from the fact that Gerrit Cole hasn’t signed yet
THANK YOU! The nerve of the MLBTR media these days.
This is the one prospect I’m not that excited about. Great defense but not much power in that bat. I think he is will be a poor mans hosmer (the kc version). Hopefully I’m wrong…
He hits for a pretty high average and is a high on base guy, which Seattle desperately needs.
Let’s see him do it at MLB level.
I just don’t think the power will translate at the MLB level. I think best case is around a .750-.800 ops from him and a 1-2 WAR player that is carried by his defense. Which at first base you want someone with a little more pop.
If he has an OPS in the .750-.800 range, his WAR is going to be around the 4 mark with his defense.
Probably closer to 3 than 4.
Splitting the middle that’s 3.5 WAR for $4 million per year through the guaranteed portion of the contract.
You take that all day.
He’s subject to the MLB minimum for the first 3 years of the contract (between 0-3 years of service) and then subject to supressed, non-free market arbitration markets for the next 3 years after that (3 years of service to 6). So $/WAR calculation doesnt really apply here.
I’m sorry dude but you don’t understand how WAR is calculated if you think a 1B with a .750 OPS is going to put that up. 1B start out with a negative 12 DRS just for playing that position. If he’s a sub .800 OPS guy at 1B his WAR number won’t get past 2.5. And that’s assuming he’s a fantastic 1B.
Now WAR isn’t the only way to value a guy. If he’s playing great D and OPS’ing around .800 I’m sure the M’s will be happy w their deal.
Yep. Of the 20 1B with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title, 2 had an OPS in the .750 – .800 range:
Vogelbach: .780 OPS / 1.6 fWAR
Votto .768 OPS / .0.7 fWAR
I have to think you need at least 35 HR and/or an OPS in the .900 range to have a 3.5 WAR at first base.
Vogelbach was a DH who got moved to first, where he was terrible.
That’s really not an argument for the WAR number though. It’s just not how it’s going to be calculated. WAR does not value 1B defense to value a guy with a sub .800 OPS above a 2-2.5 range. Unless we see a significant decline in offense around the game of baseball.
2017 Joe Mauer posted 7 DRS and put up an .800 OPS and was worth 2.3 fWAR. That profile you describe just doesn’t equal the WAR number.
As I said though WAR is just one metric. If White is a great defensive 1B with an .800 OPS the M’s won’t be upset w the deal. But it’s going to have to be damn close to .800. 1b is an offensive position. .750 doesn’t really cut it there. No matter how strong the glove is.
I made an assumption that the two guys ahead of me were throwing out legit numbers for WAR and didn’t stop to think.
.800 OPS is a borderline All Star depending on the defense. White plays exceptional defense. Maybe the best at his position in the minors.
Yeah an absolute .800 OPS would rank him 16th among ML first baseman. So despite what you think; the numbers would clearly disagree. 19th if I dropped the AB requirement to 450. So there’s a little a bit of a disparity between what you consider to be an AS 1B and what actually is an AS 1B.
Poor mans Hosmer at that contract will not be bad for Seattle.
Yeah. I think this guy will be maybe .290 hitter with maximum 20 home runs during his absolute best MLB seasons if he can adjust. Those numbers aren’t bad but they aren’t stellar for a first basemen either. I would have been more comfortable doing this if he showed he could perform at least this well for an extended time at triple A first. I have never heard of a player getting a contract this size with zero experience above the double A level. He would have been dirt cheap the first 3 years so if this guy stalls hard with serious growing pains or doesn’t pan out or even gets injured, Seattle just paid over $22.5 million for three years of a unproven possibly disappointing player at a position like 1st base nonetheless. The question is would he net $7.5 mill a year on a three year deal if he were on the open market right now? I don’t know about that. If he were putting up Ryan Howard-like numbers at triple A I could see it. But his numbers are a far cry from any serious power hitter and he hasn’t even touched the triple A level yet. Has anyone ever heard of a player that has never even been higher than double A getting a contract this size with so little power at such an offensive requisite position?
You’ve never heard of it because it’s never happened before.
‘Poor mans Hosmer;? First you need to learn about Evens skill set. He is considered the second coming of Will Clark-even better. Clark wasnt a power hitting 1B, yet he played all those years.
I think playing excellent D, and putting the ball in play will serve him well.
Power can be developed at the MLB level. There are plenty of players who didn’t show much power in the minors who went on hit for power in the majors.
Cough! Cough! Ketel Marte… Umm… Yep, I agree.
Seems completely unnecessary.
Weird……….
Team gets cost certainty he gets life changing money. Good deal all around.
Cost certainty of what?!
If he comes up and rakes, they have set salaries that will be club friendly and can avoid the uncertainty of arbitration. It’s a gamble on both sides.
The only thing that is certain is that hes done it up to Double A.
Not doing it in the majors is included in their calculation. Their probably guaranteeing 2/3 of what they think he would cost instead of going year to year plus the option years as a bonus. I think it means they think he’ll be league average at his peak with additional upside which is what most prospect people are saying.
@cold beer
Wrong again. Another thing that is certain is what he will cost the team financially on a max level for the next 9 season. That is now a certainly defined amount
Stick to cold beer
@cold beer
Cost certainty for next 9 seasons thats what
Hopefully it ain’t jon singelton part II
If it is then it’s no worse than Ellsbury or Chen being released. But there’s a lot of possible upside.
He was old for AA.
4A potential at his age. Better prospects enter the league at 21-23.
He was drafted in 2017. Being in AA this year is right on target. Nothing about that screams 4A player. I’m not even a Mariners fan and I still say: move along, dope
Almost a full year younger than the average player in the Texas League. Sure, a lot of top prospects reach Double-A sooner, but he can’t control the rate at which the Mariners push him through the system.
“Almost a full year younger than the average player in”
Not relevant.
There are legions of guys younger than the average player in their league who will never be anything in MLB.
This is like saying the number one prospect in MLB’s worst farm system is valuable because that guy is that teams best prospect.
Wow, are you dense. Just wow.
Please stop now. Your attempt to make a point related to age was atrocious to be polite.
The guy only has 2 full minor league seasons under his belt. He’s not moving at a slow pace if that’s what you’re trying to get at. The talent level between AA and AAA is not all that great. With more top prospects being in AA. So you’re really grasping here.
How is that not relevant? He was responding to a commenter who had stated that he was old for the level.
It was 100% relevant.
Also relevant was his remark about how the Mariners have handled him. Local reporters have suggested that they kept White, Lewis, and Walton in AA because they believed they would benefit more in way of development from the the pitcher-friendly Texas League than in the hitter-friendly PCL.
Of course its relevant. The only thing that is not relevant is any of your posts.
Too soon?
Hopefully he doesnt turn out like Jon singleton
My first thought with these types of deals
Well he probably doesn’t smoke weed all day.
That was Singleton’s downfall. He now had 20 million bucks to smoke his life away.
Even if it does turn up to blow up, it probably is a worthwhile gamble. This AAV is nothing for these teams. Scott Kingery already almost provides the Phillies worthwhile value on their entire investment in one season.
he’s a nice 2020 ROY sleeper. nice hitting 1B that’s been slept on a bit by prospect evaluators recently.
I suppose all 2020 rookies are potentially ROY candidates.
It looks like the Ms spent more than they needed to.
A club option at $10m a year by 2026 is robbery.
Ya, to soon to offer this kind of contract.
Jerry must be bored
I get the allure of these deals for the team, but if I were the GM I would only be trying this with the can’t-miss guys that put up way better numbers than this. Otherwise I’d want a full season of MLB production before going this route.
Once White gives you a year of production he’s not taking a guaranteed 24 million bucks. That’s the risk/return here. But is there really that much of a risk? If white stinks you lost the equivalent of one bad FA reliever contract. There’s just very little risk for the clubs in doing this. I’d look at it like a Venture Capital investment. If you give out 3-4 of these and one hits big you still wind up in the black.
It’s just a small gamble for a ML club. I’d take the gamble nearly every time on a young guy.
exactly. its smarter than getting a 20 a year free agent. of course the more of these deals u do the better chance you have. like to see a guy took a lot of money and secure his family’s future. I can think of countless guys that turn down money only to fail
Not sure if you think it is unnecessary for White or Seattle. This is a great deal for Seattle there is a small chance he fails in the bigs. It is a good deal for white he is protected from injury or the small chance he fails.
As of now White doesn’t have a ton of power but that could happen later. Even if he doesn’t there is nothing wrong with having a high OBP. We have all fallen in love with the HR and think guys who hit for a high OBP are not good enough.
I am tired of seeing guys like Vogelbach go up and swing the bat and not even come close to getting a hit. He has that weird 3/4 swing and his approach doesn’t change from strike one to two. It is all close your eyes and swing hard. Most of his HRs were the first month and a half when the team was hitting and playing crazy good.
Locking guys like this long term is a very good move. Hopefully they can lock up some more of the young guys to deals like this. There is a chance he far exceeds the contract value. The same with some of the others. Kelenic is another guy they need to sign long term. I doubt they do this year but hopefully next. Sign them and get years out of them before they become FAs.
What a great/brutal deal. If he turns out to be good and the options beat, he’s a free agent at 33.
If he turns out to be good. You also have to remember that he wouldn’t start on the ML roster this year without this contract. Now there’s a chance he does. But it’s now irrelevant to him if he doesn’t. So you figure he wasn’t going to be a free agent until he was 31 if he didn’t sign it. So he’s really just giving up 2 seasons of free agency and the arb salaries for a guarantee now.
He puts a limit on his career earnings but for a 1B prospect who was facing the reality of entering free agency at the first time at 31 years old anyway; I don’t think he did so bad.
Jerry loves his 1B.
only to trade him away in a month or so!
Well, he’s not being overhyped by the yankees, so there’s a solid chance he will make it.
9-year-old’s comment.
L
A worthwhile gamble. Power in AA is promising. It is a much more pitcher-friendly league than the PCL, so I’d rather see a 132 wRC+ in Arkansas than Tacoma.
The floor on White is solid regular on a non-competitive team, because of the OBP and defense; the ceiling is occasional All Star. And I think there’s a better than average shot that he reaches that ceiling. If he does, good deal for Seattle.
The KEY here (the “soft metric”) is how does he react? With 24M in the bank, does White think that he’s arrived? What effect does the reality that his reward is already pre-determined have on his effort, conditioning, and overall habits? That’s really the most important factor, out-weighing all this “measurement” fiction; metrics are a RESULT, not a cause.
That said, White seems to be a high-character type, who’ll continue to work at his craft. As I said, IMHO it turns out pretty good for the Mariners.
As a Mariner fan I want to understand their motive behind this better. I think White can be very good, but if he IS very good, they’re still paying ~$55MM for what already would have been a relatively cheap period of his career. And if he’s a total bust, that’s $24MM down the drain.
Could someone help me understand this from the Mariners perspective in a money/value sense?
most players will earn 24 million pretty quick if they are good. think about this way if they were to go out and spend 24 million dollars in the open market and get two players or even one I still don’t even have that great of odds of it being successful. this way for the cost have a 2-year lower cost free agent you get a chance this guy for a long time. if you signed three of these deals two of them are bound to work out even if it’s only 1 you will probably still pay no more than a free agent and they still have plenty of risk. this is the kind of deals that can give you a lot of payroll flexibility down the road and change the course of your organization if you get lucky on a few. even if you get 1 out of 2 you wont lose money
In 6 years when the options kick in, $29M over 3 years will be way below market. Overpay now for financial flexibility in the future. If he’s a star, even better.
This deal is all about the control of his expected first years of FA eligibility. Additionally, it gives the Mariners a controlled cost over his arb. years, which if a player performs well, can result in lofty salaries.
It is a curious risk the Mariners are taking, but realistically, White is arguably taking the bigger risk here.
Rip Ryon Healy.
He was let go awhile ago.
This is great news!!! I picked up White in my Roto League towards the end of the season as a speculative guess to which prospects might make their teams 25 man roster come spring training 2020.
Am I the only person who sees DiPoto as a terrible GM? This guy is clueless.
He can’t be that clueless, he did get Jarred Kelenic from the Mets while convincing them to take Robinson Cano in return.
What has he done that suggests that really? I think he earned a bad reputation in Anaheim but I feel the owner meddles with the baseball decisions a lot there. He’s had a pretty decent run in Seattle trying to build them back up. There’s certainly a strong foundation that he’s responsible for.
Probably, southpaw, especially considering this could be a very shrewd move and he’s completely rebuilt a barren farm over the past few years. He’s in the middle of the pack for GMs.
Bats right and throws left. Very intersting how that can happen
Ala Ricky Henderson
My younger brother throws left but bats right handed. He was born left handed but growing up and playing in our backyard, I taught him how to hit right handed because I’m right handed. Hence the throws left, bats right. He turned out to be a pretty good switch hitter in HS
I hope the M’s haven’t removed that incredibly powerful carrot by paying him before he performs instead of afterword.
Jerry is betting on data. He said repeatedly last season that White was leading all of MiLB in exit velo, despite not being a power hitter. He came into pro ball as a well disciplined contact hitter who hit alot of line drives. Prior to last season they tweeked his swing a bit to give him more loft and he hit his 18 homers. If he hits, he’s locked him up for about 2-3 years worth of what his market value would be.
Good comment and spot on. I agree this is not a bad a move. Low risk and potential bargain.
So, he’s never even played in AAA and he plays the least valuable defensive position?
Yeah, give him 8 figures.
He’s guaranteed $4 million LESS over 6 years than Felix took home in 2019 alone. How did that work out?
but in real money it’s more like 10 million less. pay has gone up a lot since then
AA is a way harder league to hit in and he would be a top 3 defensive 1B in the bigs right now. Led minors in exit velocity and can play OF when needed.
He sounds a lot like Cody Bellinger did before he came up to the majors. He’s got more speed and could play the outfield if needed. He’s also got solid hitting tools (less power, but a higher expected hit rating than Bellinger did) and solid plate discipline.
Stop the nonsense please. Don’t put him in the same breath as Bellinger yet.
From all the things I hear, he sounds like he’s out of the John Olerud mold, Can hit for avg, but not really ‘traditional 1B power’, but plays gold glove type D and this guy I guess doesn’t clog the basepaths(Like Ole John did…LOL) and is considered one of the better base runners in the entire system…Lots of intangibles to this guy which should make him more Scott Kingery(+3.0 WAR last season) and less Jon Singleton(a total bust)!
I really like the Will Clark comparison made above. If he becomes a Will Clark type, Seattle gets an absolute STEAL here. If he completely fails, then the $4M/yr amount does very little to Seattle’s ability to field a competitive team. In order to get this deal, the club has to think very highly of him so this is a really good gamble on Seattle’s part, and also a good deal for White too. He has life changing money locked up and now can focus 100% on his craft and not worry about stats/playing time come arbitration time.
What are they doing with vogelbach then
He’ll continue to DH, like he did in 80 of his 129 starts last season.
Ok this got done now get Hanigar to the Braves
Poor Vogy.
He’s not losing his roster spot yet, he just won’t be the primary first baseman anymore and besides, he’s a DH at best.
Poor Vogy
This is like getting a tattoo now that says Seattle Mariners 2020 World Series Champs because you’re so confident they’ve got it won you just can’t wait until it actually happens.
Not sure why so many people care what billionaires and major corporations do with their money. The Mariners/Nintendo clearly think White is worth the investment and is a risk they are willing to take. Ya’ll feel so entitled to decide what right/wrong investment of other people’s money is.
The fans understand that there is an economic aspect of a move. They just lived through the end of Felix’s contract.
UMMM Nintendo doesn’t own the team anymore. They have a very small stake but no say. Sold the team almost 3 years ago. I agree with the sentiment though. I think the only thing dumber than some of the comments was me for reading all of them.
Yeah, I actually forgot Nintendo sold majority stake in the team, my bad. But as for the Felix comparison and saying fans understand their is an economic side to every move, that is ridiculous. The white and Felix deals aren’t remotely comparable at 6yr/$24m (9/$55.5m) vs. 7/$175m.
I never said it was exactly comparable, it was a case in point. Don’t get your panties in a twist, but then again you get triggered by fans commenting on investments.
If he becomes a valuable major leaguer this is a huge win for Seattle. If that happens, they just signed him from age 24-32
For 55.5 million dollars. He gave up his “big shot” at FA with this deal. It’s basically the opposite of NOT betting on yourself. He also gets more money right now and in the next 2-3 years, than he otherwise would have. And the obvious caveat here is if e fails, the Mariners wasted 24 million pretty badly. Good bat, great glove, already has good college experience and good minor league experience? I like it for Seattle. Not as much for he player, unless he doesn’t fulfill his potential. But who knows, maybe he was broke and needed some cash now. Slight nod to Seattle. But like any trade of acquisition…..we have to wait and see! Doesn’t matter what any of us think!!
Think of it this way, he can afford to buy himself and his parents houses right away, He can go on vacations right away, He can buy himself state of the art equipment for working out at home (i.e. home gym, batting cage, etc.) Eating healthy also costs money, and for those that think well he got his signing bonus. Take 3.25M and give away 30% or more to the government. So now he has $2.25M, while that’s a lot of money, if he properly invests it, he will never have to work when his baseball career is over. By signing this deal, he can still invest in his future and create a retirement plan, but most importantly, there is no limit to the quality of life he can enjoy as a 23 to 24 year old. I would give up a lot to have the ability to travel the world, and experience whatever interests me without worry of cost while I was still young. At almost 40 years old, time goes quick. Anyone who talks about the Trout money or to be more realistic, maybe the Hosmer money he might lose.
A) Free agency is a crap shoot ~ Free Agency is getting worse for players with no easy fix in sight.
B) Might be getting more than arb would guarantee ~ If he doesn’t sign this deal, he waits half a year to reach the majors and could have a rusty 1st half which delays him even more. This means that best case he’s earning pro-rated league minimum in 2020, league minimum in 2021-2023, and $3.6M, $4.5M, and $7.5M in arb for 2024-2026, which equals $17.5M for his first 7 years and only gets hit to free agency by 31 instead of 33.
C) Age of free agency ~ Most 2 WAR players in free agency at around 31-33 are making between $2-3M and as much as $7-10M, he’s already guaranteed the higher side of that total with his option years. By doing this, he also ensures that he either gets $55M or he’s a free agent going into his age 30 season, a year earlier than he otherwise could expect.
D) Cost to Play ~ Players have to pay for their own equipment, their own cars, their own food, and I’m pretty sure he’s at least thinking about settling down with his girlfriend or future girlfriend in the next couple years.
E) Getting Older ~ At 24 next year, he’s just starting to exit prospect status, he isn’t going to be worth more than he is right now.
F) Not Broke/Don’t Fix ~ If he believes in what the Mariners are doing, this is the one way to make sure you stick around and keep playing with the guys you have been with your whole career.
G) Money Isn’t Everything ~ More than $25M versus a “huge arbitration and free agency payday” is like comparing a company giving you a $100 per diem versus a $500 per diem for your business associate that neither can’t be rolled forward. You can eat whatever you want at $100 a day, so who cares if the guy next to you gets $500, he’ll never use it anyways. What is he going to do, order three filet mignon instead of 1 for all three meals? At some point debating about lost future income at the cost of potentially being out of baseball with less than 15% of that seems stupid on so many levels.
H) Betting on Himself ~ Maybe this is the ultimate betting on himself, because this could be him betting he’s good enough to still get a huge payday at 33 years old, good enough to be a hall of fame player, good enough at investing to make $25M today be worth more than $100M in a decade!
***Arb numbers were taken from the player requested totals of Brandon Belt, which is usually a little high but probably accounts for inflation. You can verify at the link below.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
Actually, there are plenty of clueless baseball fans who think Dipoto is clueless. He’s doing a solid job fixing the mess left by Jack Z.
He’s doing many correct things, but whether he produces a winner is to remain to be seen
Selling high on Edwin Diaz and packaging him with an aging cheater in Cano borders on genius. An absolutely brilliant transaction!
Great move I agree but genius? It’s the fairly obvious move but had the Cards traded Carpenter before the year or earlier I’d be calling it genius myself.
Fairly obvious move? Dipoto was ridiculed and lambasted by most for trading away a dominant young closer with so many years of club control left.
What? That deal was a steal from day 1 even if Cabo and Diaz weren’t terrible. I don’t remember anyone blasting Dipoto. Maybe clueless Mariner fans who don’t think long term. Heck, getting rid of most of Cano’s awful deal and getting Kelenic alone made it worth it.
Bottom line: 23 years old in the Texas league , 92 K’s vs. just 29 walks in 400 PA, with decent, but not eye popping game power. (29 HR in 1000 PA last two years)
This is not a smart move.
Clearly you are out of your depth of comprehension if you truly think what you posted tells the story. First off, you mention homeruns but ignore his .488 Slg this year on AA. You also have zero idea about park factors which makes that even more impressive. Throw in his gold glove level defense and you have a pretty solid player.
Time will tell but to make a statement of fact in it is absurd as you have no factual basis if it’s a “smart move” anymore than anyone else does.
Big risk, may be a big reward on a very cheap deal if this guy becomes something productive at the big league level. We’ll see.
I’m a big fan of deals like this for the players, but never got the team. In general I believe the kids have to have some mlb experience before landing a longer term contract. Like, you know, actually being able to get to the clubhouse first. But hey, not my money, not my problem. Good for White here
They think he’s ready now, 6/24 mil plus is less than what they think he’ll cost them during that time, and the options have enough value to make the deal worth it.
We M’s fans are still shell shocked at how our last youth movement went. While these things can work great, see Astros and Altuve, Springer, Bregman, Correa, Our names were Ackley, Smoak, Zunino, Brad Miller, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, If I’ve forgotten anyone then they were obviously forgettable.
Hopefully the kid hits like Edgar Martinez..