Outfielder Marcell Ozuna intends to decline the $17.8MM qualifying offer and test the open market, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’s said to have received sufficient interest to believe he’ll top the QO in free agency, even with the drag of draft compensation.
Ozuna’s suitors will need to factor in some lost draft assets if they sign him; the precise hit depends upon the team. But with nearly a quarter of the MLB outfits showing some level of interest, per Heyman, it seems the circumstances will create enough bidding to get Ozuna a lengthier contract.
It’s still hard to tell just how things will shake out for a player who has some very strong attributes but also some clear demerits. And it doesn’t help that he’s entering a market filled almost to a bizarre level with roughly similar players. Fellow youthful corner outfielders Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig are also looking for new homes. None will be saddled with draft compensation.
While Ozuna has stung the ball repetitively in recent years, he has produced at merely above-average levels. It doesn’t take much to imagine Ozuna slugging again like he did in 2017; after all, he only just reached his 29th birthday today. But it’s also easy to view that standout campaign as a clear outlier, since he hasn’t otherwise produced consistently at anything close to a 143 wRC+ level. Plus, Ozuna’s once-strong defensive chops have taken a hit as he has lost speed and dealt with shoulder problems, though there’s still reason to hope he’ll be a capable defender for a few more years.
Here at MLBTR, we expect the market to treat Ozuna well — just perhaps not quite as well as once seemed possible. We guessed he’d take down a three-year, $45MM pact even after accounting for the draft hit, with teams such as the Giants, Marlins, Reds, Padres, Indians, Tigers, and Royals positioned as plausible contenders for his services.
Eeehhhh not sure that the good ole’ Tigers are going to make a move for Ozuna.
Take the draft pick and move on. Playing his left field fence debacle on repeat in the background while negotiating a contract with him is highly recommended.
Yeah, that’s a great tactic. It screams ‘We want you, but you suck’.
That was one of the funniest moments in sports ive seen in quite some time.
The Giants giving up draft picks to sign this guy makes no sense in their current situation. They need to shead veteran contracts, not add new ones other than maybe buy low starting pitchers who might be bounce back candidates to flip at the deadline.
A case could be made for the Giants signing Gerrit Cole and keeping Smith.
Losing Bumgarner I believe is likely, and that hole will not be filled by flips. Plus, keep Smith and double down on Cole. The Giants are not a bad team.
They are not shedding any of those contracts. They are stuck with them.
I know, but they at least should let them expire or get closer to expiring before taking on higher end free agents. Why pay Ozuna or someone similar around 15 million dollars a year to take them from a 70 win team to a 72 win team? Let the washed up guys play out their contracts, then spend like crazy when they are off the books and Bart/Ramos/Bishop/Luciano ect are ready to contribute.
Agreed 100%. Assuming we lose both Smith and Bum we could realistically have 3 picks within the top 45 (and 4 in the top 60). I think it’s best we more or less punt 2020 and look towards 2021 and beyond
I asked Giants fans in the Scott Harris hiring thread “what is the Giants gameplan?” It was relayed to me they are rebuilding. Yet the Giants do not seem all that intent on a rebuild of any kind.
Risky signing. Based on his last 2 years, you’ll be paying $10 million per WAR.
Which is probably the market rate or slightly over. The positive is he’s in prime age with good upside potential. I think 3/$45 is a bit short unless the signing team includes annual player opt-outs.
That is what McCutchen got as a former MVP. I am not at all interested in paying that to a guy who is only about 8% above average with his bat and can only play corner OF.
His swing has way too many moving parts. Everything has to be in perfect timing and when you add that much that can go wrong, it often does. Take the pick and move on. Heck, don’t take the pick and let him sit. Just don’t pay for someone that will not generate anything more substantive than what you already have.
Has the potential to bounceback and be a good bargain for someone. However, he could just as easily continue to regress. It’s going to be a very interesting offseason. For my money, I’d rather have Corey Dickerson or Kole Calhoun for half the price. Better defenders and no draft pick compensation
I think alike. I rather have in the team Dickerson or Calhoun than giving Ozuna a multi year contract.
Some team that misses out on the guys who don’t come with the loss of a draft pick will sign him.
3/45 sounds about right
The last two seasons at the start of Cardinal spring training Ozuna has come in about 25 pounds over weight. Looks like he does nothing for conditioning in the off-season. This rubbed the Cardinal brass the wrong way…
I wrote about his issues last ST in the comment section here, and an historical revisionist showed up to attack me.
Suggested he email a Cardinals beat writer to see if I was making it up.
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As for the Cardinals offering the QO – I believe they knew he wouldn’t take it and and are happy to get the draft picks. To put it politely, I don’t believe the FO was happy with the player they got in trade from the Marlins, and they’re making the best of the situation.
Don’t etch that pick in stone just yet. Ozuna may have to wait until June to sign.
Let Tyler O’Neill finally have his shot at the LF job. If he ever cut the strikeouts down, he’d be a stud. Sounds like a guy that just needs regular ABs since He rakes in AAA every time we send him there to get ABs, but once he gets his timing down, we promote him just to sit him in the bench.
First, he’s sorta dumb for not taking this after the year he had last year. $17 mil kinda a lot of money to post those #’s again. Although he’s a better hit than he showed last year, so if he gets a better deal, I wouldn’t be shocked. But I know I would want my team to stay far away from him unless I’m the freaking marlins. That’s the only team he makes sense in my opinion
Far, far away for this Reds fan…
I think the tigers would rather sign Puig or reunite with Garcia. Need all the draft picks we can get.
not enough OF spots that need to be filled and too many FA OFs available. no way he makes that money back.
How About those Astros? Lol
When this guy hits off the fastball, he rakes and hits absolute shots. I haven’t watched him quite as much since he left the East, but based on the years with Miami and this years NLCS, I would think that taking more breaking balls early in the count is all that’s missing offensively there. Personally, if I want to acquire an outfielder that can be a difference-maker this offseason, I’d still pay the man.
Now take that 18 million that we saved and go sign a lefty starter named MadBum, figure the OF internally or with a trade.
I hope the Reds don’t bite on this hook. I’d rather give that kind of money to Puig. Bring back a fan favorite that was an outstanding citizen in The Nati…If he’s loved he can put it all together and carry this team!
He probably should have accepted the QO.
If he wants to stay with the Cards long term he should take the qualifying offer, turn up early and in peak physical condition to spring training and show the club he is indispensable. Maybe during the year the Cards being impressed with his efforts reward him with a 5 year deal.
He’ll get a multi year deal somewhere so he’ll probably get more guaranteed money by declining, but in terms of AAV might have made more sense to bet on himself, take the higher salary this upcoming year, and then hope he proves he’s worth a bigger contract
GM’s would be asking the question, if we sign Ozuna to a multi year deal, what’s his commitment going to be like? Is he going to work hard everyday and be the player that lives up to his contract? Based on the last 2 years it’s a tough sell.
Indians add to try and pry that window from closing, then add one if the flood of 2bmen in the market.
Man this guy used to fill in cf very nice while on the marlins used to steal a few bases too. His defense has truly fallen off..