Starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi is “strongly considering” accepting his qualifying offer from the Twins, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (link). If he accepts, Odorizzi would be set to earn $17.8MM in 2020. Final qualifying offer decisions are due by 4 pm CST this afternoon.
If Odorizzi ultimately decides to return to Minnesota under the auspices of the one-year QO, it will stand as one of the early surprises of the offseason. Although the right-hander faces some stiff competition from fellow free-agent starting pitchers on the open market, it seemed at the offseason’s outset that the former Ray could represent the very best of the market’s “third tier” of starters (following, arguably, after the triumvirate of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, and Zack Wheeler). While our free agent predictions from earlier this month did predict the 29-year-old would remain in Minnesota, his relative youth and recent production were factors in our projection of a three-year, $51MM open-market reward.
Even considering Odorizzi’s current status of contemplation, that hypothetical pact still projects as a relatively reasonable package of compensation for an under-30 starter coming off a 2019 season that resounded as a career-best. After two lackluster campaigns in ’17 and ’18, this past season saw the Illinois native record career bests in both strikeout rate (10.1 K/9) and fielding independent metrics (3.36 FIP through 159 innings) while leading a staff that helped secure an AL Central crown.
And, to be fair, it’s not as if Odorizzi’s success was exactly “out of nowhere”: between his 2015 and 2016 seasons with Tampa, the righty notched a 3.53 ERA across 81 starts. For all intents and purposes, Odorizzi’s 2019 breakouts simply seemed like a case of a formerly well-regarded youngster righting the ship after a few seasons of mid-career adjustment; add in a legitimate year-over-year jump in fastball velocity (from an average of 91.1 mph in 2018 to 92.9 mph this past season, per Statcast), and it appeared as if the hurler actually promised something of a value play to teams unwilling to enter the luxury aisle for free agent starting pitchers this offseason.
Odorizzi’s decision suddenly looms as one of the more interesting ripple effects to watch in advance of the QO deadline this afternoon. His return to the Twins would, for one, go a long way toward clearing up the club’s murky rotation picture–even if Odorizzi remains in the fold, the club would likely still need to add one (or perhaps two) starting options. Meanwhile, free agents like Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, and Julio Teheran would seem to gain leverage from having one less arm above them in the open-market pecking order.
He’s had a chance to test the market. Could be a good play. Better twins than blue jays.
Not with the qo offer
Next year he won’t have to worry
The stupid move will be ozuna and it smith turning it down
I also think Ozuna should take the QO. It’s not like he’s coming off a career year. He takes the QO, bets on himself, won’t have the draft pick attached to him next year, and still pockets $18m.
I disagree. Ozuna has proven to be a steady offensive force. Now I don’t think he’ll get $20 plus million per season but if he can get say a 5 yr, $75 million contract, I would rather the financial security of $75 mil over just $18. Just my opinion.
It’s a weak FA class this year, which definitely tilts toward rejecting the QO, and only he knows the true condition of his shoulder. But I don’t think he’s going to get 5/$75m. If he’s going to land in the 3/$45 range they predicted here, I think he might as well take the QO. He could get at least 3/$45 next year.
You might be right.
I may be crazy.
But it just may be a lunatic you’re looking for…
The way the labor union agreement is set up these days. Take the QA because 5 years for Ozuna. No way. Back then when players forced the issue to get paid it was different. Owners control players beyond their ripe point now which makes it so veterans have a hard time getting resigned at top dollar if they are older than or past the age 29. Owners are using Sabermetrics to prove it in the negotiations. It has nothing to do with whether the veteran is a better ballplayer. It’s about the money. The advantage for players these days is that they see ‘The Show’ more often and get sent back down; get a better minimum salary and benefits package…. Here is the thing. If the MLB does not develop stars and household names attendance will suffer. The the owners have a problem to deal with as well. Ozuna should take the QA to become entrenched in STL. future.
If this guy takes the QO then Will Smith has too. It will blow my mind if Smith turns it down. No way that guy gets a big contract with draft compensation if Kimbrel and Keuchel couldn’t pull it off.
Smith should have accepted around the 3rd syllable of “qualifying”.
Agree, accept QO and still allowed to negotiate a long term contract with Twins.
Odo might struggle this offseason if he has that draft pick hanging over him. (even though id say id probably rather have him than MadBum or Wheeler) he should take it and try the open market next offseason.
going forward . . . . for the next 3-5 years . . . . you’d be a fool to not choose Wheeler
Why? Solely because of the cost differential? Because Odorizzi has thrown 180 innings once in his career. He just came off a 30 start 159 inning season. They talk about Odo’s up tick in velocity which is certainly a positive but it’s not as if a 92.9 mph fastball is something to write home about. He’s going to cost less but you’re also getting a whole lot less. I see Mad Bum and Wheeler as clearly superior options who should be a relatively lock to give you the 180+ innings as long as they stay off the DL.
Odorizzi isn’t going to give you that if he is healthy all year.
I’d sign Pineda or Gibson for less than half the price. If Odorizzi’s market is truly in the 50-60MM range. I think it’s a toss up which one of that trio performs better next year.
@ jbigz12 . . . so you are agreeing with me and would sign Wheeler over Odorizzi if doing a 4 or 5 year pact ?
** to give Michael Pineda anything other than basically a minimum contract with big incentives is silly. He is a 30 year old pitcher with a .500 win-loss record history of injuries.
Yeah I’m not disagreeing with you.im a fan of Wheeler. I was disagreeing w phillyguy. I wouldn’t give Odorizzi 50 million bucks. But I’d give Pineda 2/15 or so to be my #4 starter. I don’t see a huge difference b/w Pineda and Odorizzi moving forward. Obviously if Odorizzi takes the QO that’d be perfectly fine and you can go scratch Pineda. Unless he takes a 1 year deal.
I believe Odo will sign QO with the Twins and than negotiate a long term contract . In addition I believe they will also sign Wheeler or Bumgardner as they have the funds to do both .
Handing him that offer was likely a chess move by MN. They want him to stick around longer than one year. Hanging him out to dry with a draft pick tied to him is a good way to make a return to the Twins look like a good idea. My guess is he accepts and they hammer out a longer contract.
For purely selfish reasons, yes, Jake, take the offer..
General consensus in Minnesota is that it would be surprising to see him NOT accept the QO. This system really is flawed. Either way Twins win big here. Pay a premium on his salary by investing in him for 1 year (with a player motivated to get his payday and perform) or he declines and we get a draft pick at the end of the 1st round and still have 65-80million to spend on the rotation. That being said, as a Twins fan, I want him to accept it.
3rd highest pick. I’m saying it’s not the big dogs that sign him.
If he signs over $50m we get a pick at the end of the 1st round.
We
Hahahaha. So funny how people seem to get so upset by using “we” when talking about ones favorite team.
Man that would be the most damning indictment of the FA market yet
Grandal says hi.
Moose also says hi. Twice.
Take the qualifying offer Ordorizzi. Just leave my Jays alone. We like our draft picks in Toronto. Lol
Not gonna be able to plug these draft picks into the 2020 rotation, though. Gonna need to sign someone on that FA list…
Really? The advantage is that he would go into free agency next year without the compensatory draft pick attached to him. However, he would be going into his age 31 year, and there’s always the risk of injury or ineffectiveness next year that would hurt his free agency value. The wise move is to reject the QO and look for 3-4 years in the $45-$55 mill. range.
Like Dallas Keuchel?
I thought Keuchel was hell-bent on the Arrieta-level contract, which was why he languished in FA for so long.
No shocker here. I even predicted he would accept it on another thread.
I didn’t think there would be a big market for him. He pitches in the AL Central, which was the best division in baseball to pitch. Stuff like this doesn’t go unnoticed.
Ooo that would be a mistake, Jake. If you aren’t as good in 2020, you’ve lost yourself a huge pile of cash. You’ll only be a year older.
It’s a close call but I think he declines, a team falls in love with his durability and give him a 4/65 mil pay day
With a current career earning of just over $23M why would he not take one year at 17+ and then go back into free agency next year?
He still will only be 30 and can easily land a three-year deal.
This is a no-brainer.
17 mil plus now in the bank with maybe more later? Take the money now, save or invest a few million for later in case of injury , and pitch your heart out in 2020, Jake .
I’d still be surprised to see Odorizzi accept the QO. There’s almost certainly a multi-year deal waiting out there for him–especially with two FA pitchers (Cole/Stras) realistic options for so few teams.
Then again, as I was typing this, I realized there’s quite a bit of depth out there in terms of SP’s–so maybe accepting wouldn’t be a bad idea. Hmmm.
Odorizzi is betting on himself and I can’t fault the guy. Gets a larger annual value than projected this year and can still hit the market next year without the QO affecting his market. Good move!
Coupled with a much weaker FA pitching list next year, if he’s going to bet on himself, now seems like a good time.
Well, if a team wants more velocity (93.9 mph average vs 92.9 average), less walks (42 in 165 IP vs 53 in 159 IP) more innings pitched per start (6.0 vs 5.3) at a lower cost (and fewer strikeouts). Then they should sign Angel Sánchez out of the KBO to a 1 year $2 million deal with a team option for $4 million.
Just another sign that the “expert predictions” on here are no better or worse than commenter predictions. Whoever wins the free agent contest should get to be a “writer” for MLBTR and we can vote off one of the current writers.
Pretty sure they predicted the Twins as his next team, so techmically they’d only be half wrong and could still win the contest. Maybe one of the writers could vote off one of the current “readers.”
Take the QO.
Have another good year.
Be free of one going forward.
He definitely didn’t make 81 starts between 2015 and 2016.
Would the other pitchers actually benefit from him leaving the market if his leaving it involves an pitching-needy team losing $18m of payroll space? Less supply sure but more-less demand.
His logic is probably that, if he accepts the QO and has another season like the one he just wrapped up he could enter next off-season having earned a nice $17.8M and be a FA next off-season without the hindrance of a QO setting him up for a similar, if not better, offer next off-season. Personally I think this is a solid tactic (similar to what Ryu did last off-season — though with him there were some injury issues as well that aren’t in play here) it still could wind up being a really beneficial scenario to be able to rid himself of the QO burden next year and he an ‘unrestricted’ FA at just 1 year older. (Assuming he pitches as well as he did this season — which granted is a legitimate “IF” )