Righty Jake Odorizzi discussed his decision to accept the Twins’ qualifying offer with reporters including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (Twitter thread) and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The chat provided some insight into Odorizzi’s thought process and future intentions.
Broadly, Odorizzi made clear he was pleased to return to Minnesota. “On a one-year deal, this was the place I wanted to be,” he said. The righty indicated that he’s comfortable in all respects with the organization — and would in fact be open to a longer arrangement.
Odorizzi is “always open” to talks on a long-term pact, he says. But he suggested he’ll leave it to the front office whether to kick-start such an effort, saying “the ball’s in their court now.”
It seems possible the Twins could explore a multi-year scenario with Odorizzi in the coming spring, but that’s a low-likelihood proposition. For a front office that plainly values long-term payroll flexibility, going beyond the existing $17.8MM commitment may not hold particular appeal. There’s always a price at which it might make sense, but Odorizzi won’t be able to generate open-market pressure again until after the 2020 season.
The muddied starting pitching market seems to have been a deciding factor in Odorizzi’s decision to accept the single-season payout. He indicated that he was in touch with plenty of clubs but was ultimately unable to gain sufficient clarity regarding his contract outlook to take the risk of hitting the market with draft compensation attached. “I didn’t want to be sitting on my couch in February,” Odorizzi explained.
Compare his situation to that of Will Smith, the left-handed reliever who secured a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves and declined his QO from the Giants. Though MLBTR assessed Smith’s market value beneath that of Odorizzi, the former stood out greatly in a market that lacked for premium late-inning arms. That scarcity surely made it much easier for his reps to ramp up his market in a short time frame and arrive upon a deal.
Odorizzi’s gambit could certainly pay off in the long run, though he’ll need to turn in another high-quality season for that to be the case. He says he hopes to land “at the top of the class” on the market next winter, when the Twins won’t be able to saddle him with another QO. Odorizzi is certainly young enough to take this path, though it’s always tough to pass on a chance to lock up a long-term commitment on the heels of a strong season. Of course, it’s always worth remembering that these decisions are personal to the player.
On the Twins’ side, it’s hard to see this as anything but a win. Odorizzi might have cost just as much annually on a multi-year pact on the open market. Instead, the club gets a much-needed rotation piece at a palatable single-season rate without having to commit into the future. In theory, this could make it more likely that the Minnesota org strikes big in other areas of the market — including, perhaps, some of the players that spurned qualifying offers yesterday.
I can’t really picture this team signing any available players to big contracts. Maybe Castellanos for outfield, planning to DH him next couple years. Maybe EE first, not that that’s much of a commitment. I don’t see any interesting pitchers signing with them unless they crush the market, $80m+ for Ryu, $15m+ for Hill, etc.
You don’t know much about the Twins if you think they have even thought more than 3 seconds about signing someone as a DH, they literally had the best DH in baseball last year.
Re-read the original comment
Twins have great young pitchers in the AA and AAA. As an example Alex Schick who pitched at Cal Berkeley finished the year in AAA and can help them in 2020.
How delusional are you that out of all the great pitchersin the Twins system, you bring up Schick?
Now all the Front Office needs to do is sign Hyun-Jin Ryu to a 3 year, $15 million a year contract with an option on a 4th year with a $250,000 buyout.
Sign Dallas Keuchel on a two year, $12 million a year contract with an option for a 3rd year with a $250,00 buyout.
Sign Cole Hamels to a one year $15 million contract with a one year option and a $250,000 buy out and the Twins are ready to go.
With Dobnak, Gateral and Smeltzer ready to fill in if someone fails or get injured, the Twins should be ready to compete in 2020 and 2021..
Go Twins!!!
I would think Kuechel would need more years at that AAV, also those buyout figures are way too low for any of them.
You mean to say way way way too low.
None of those players are giving the Twins a team option that can just be bought out for chump change
“Odorizzi’s gambit could certainly pay off in the long run, though he’ll need to turn in another high-quality season for that to be the case.”
He’s making $17.8M this season and will be only 30 years of age at the end of the ’20 season. His career paid off even if he never signs another contract.
Indeed, this one year deal almost doubles his career earnings. Good for him and the Twins in my opinion.
I agree completely.
More guys need to start doing this. Kimbrel and Keuchel should’ve done it last year.
Especially Kimbrel. There was less if a chance of regression for him. Dallas should have too, but another below average performance was likelier.
No they shouldn’t. The qo is garbage.
yes, the QO is garbage, but it is the rule so they’ve gotta find a way to try to use it in their favor. Sure, with hindsight 20/20 we can all say that Kimbrel and Keuchel probably should have accepted the QO, but at the time they weren’t exactly in the same situation as Odorizzi and the Twins are now.
Why is the QO garbage?
Answering my own post. Ryu signed a QO for 2019. Now, he is in line to nail down a big contract. I know it is not oir money but when did 17+ Million become a liability for a player? 17+ million for six months work? Come on!
It’s about time a young 3rd tier free agent see’s the benefits of taking the qualifying offer. If players are good enough, they should be able to secure a multi year contract next year if they perform. Win/Win. The older players should go this route too
There is rarely a benefit.
I feel like piece of mind played a big role here. 17.8M is an enormous amount of money and he go to Thanksgiving without having to worry about where he’ll work next year. That QO can bite a player.
Minnesota got lucky, now they have no excuses to acquire another SP such as Wheeler
With the Twins future commitments (or lack there of), I’d like to see them land 2 pitchers of that ilk. Bumgarner or Ryu should could also fit in their payroll.
Good for him. I hope he pitches well this year and secures a 3 year deal next year in the open market or extends with the Twins.
One more failed prediction. I had Jake Odorizzi headed to HOU.