After accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer last winter, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu is slated to fully explore the open market for the first time in his career. The NL Cy Young runner-up won’t have the burden of draft-pick compensation attached to his name, as he would’ve had he rejected last year’s offer, and he told reporters in his native South Korea this week that he’s hoping to sign a three- or four-year deal wherever he lands (link via Jee-Ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency).
Ryu’s decision to accept that qualifying offer looks to have paid off in spades, as the southpaw not only took home a rather hefty one-year salary in 2019 but also strengthened his open-market case with the finest season of his Major League career. In 29 starts and a total of 182 2/3 innings, Ryu worked to a pristine 2.32 ERA (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP) with 8.0 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate. He may very well have won the NL Cy Young Award had it not been for a brief IL trip due to discomfort in his neck and some ensuing struggles in his return. Ryu yielded 21 runs (45 percent of his season total) in a span of 19 innings from Aug. 17 through Sept. 4 before rebounding with a trio of strong, seven-inning outings to close out the season.
At this point, Ryu says he’s entrusting agent Scott Boras to handle everything pertaining to his free agency, although Ryu did add that he doesn’t believe there have been many talks about a reunion with the Dodgers. That could change quickly, of course, and the Dodgers will surely gauge the asking price and market competition for Ryu — as they figure to do with virtually every free agent of note. Ryu also expressed gratitude in reference to recent comments made by countryman Shin-Soo Choo, who last week revealed that he’d pushed the Texas front office to look into signing Ryu. The 32-year-old Ryu (33 in March) said it would be “special” to play with a fellow Korean on the same big league club.
Whether a three- or four-year deal is possible will of course depend on the competition for Ryu’s services this winter. He ranks among the best available in terms of sheer talent, as evidenced by the otherworldly 2.21 ERA he’s notched in his past 265 big league innings dating back to Opening Day 2018. But Ryu’s next contract will begin with his age-33 campaign, and he carries with him an extensive injury history that’ll give plenty of teams pause.
Ryu had Tommy John surgery before he was even drafted in the Korea Baseball Organization, and he’s had a pair of surgeries since jumping to MLB as well: a shoulder operation to repair his labrum in 2015 and an elbow debridement procedure in 2016. Ryu pitched just 4 2/3 MLB innings from 2015-16 as a result of those two surgeries. He’s also had some hip troubles in the past, and in 2018 he was limited to 82 2/3 innings after suffering a gruesome injury when he tore a muscle in his groin clear off the bone.
Durability and age are the clearest red flags for Ryu as he and Boras look for a new contract this winter, but the lefty is one of the most impactful arms on the market. For a team that is reluctant to surrender draft picks by inking pitchers who received a qualifying offer, he’s the best available option. Ryu ranked ninth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings earlier this month (wherein we predicted a three-year, $54MM deal with the Rangers).
I can see three based on how well he did last year but I’d be shocked to see him get four years with his injury history.
hard pass on 4 years. next
My first thought if the Rangers signed him: what if they turned around and traded Choo before the season starts lol
Choo won’t get traded, Rangers are more likely to trade Mazara.
Why are they more likely to trade the young controllable piece than the veteran on a one year deal when they probably won’t be contending next season?
I chose Milwaukee as his landing spot.
Hope so, but not for 4 years. Id be okay with 2 and an option with a higher AAV
he can absolutely get 3 years, but it will sure as heck be well insured.
Can free agents sign with other teams yet? If not, when?
They’re free to do so right now, yes.
Thank you!
Isn’t it weird how no one signs anyone?
This would be a great signing … if he didn’t have a glass arm.
Too big of an injury history to risk 4 Years on. 3 seems reasonable.
The Rangers are apparently signing all of the free agents.
They will continue to position themselves in the rumor mill in order to get season tickets sold for their new shrine.
I wouldn’t buy tickets to Ranger games because of rumors!
Love your optimism, but really?
I’d overpay for two years, or pay market value for three. Not a chance I’d go four on him.
Agreed. Even 3 is a gamble. Either he’ll be a great get, or a really bad one. All comes down to injuries with this guy.
I agree with the over pay idea & market value for yr 3. I would even go with a market value 4th yr that is a vesting option.
The vesting trigger can’t be too high but have it set up for reaching if healthy & effective during the 1st 3 years (for example vesting year triggers if 425 IP during 1st 3 years but no 1 season can account for more than 175 IP)..
If healthy & effective, he deserves the 4th year. If not, both team & player can get out after 3 seasons.
To modify the lackey clause, 3 yr deal at market average. 4th year vests at market rate based on reasonable health and production, BUT, in event of significant IL time, 4th year converts to team option league minimum
Yep. Team options on a 2 or 3-year deal. When healthy he is excellent.
Rangers or Angels, 3/50mil
the latter is my bet; he’s LAA’s Cole consolation prize.
I could see a team going 4 if that’s what separates them from the pack, but it’ll cost Ryu some money on a per-year basis and be heavily insured. Maybe 4/$60M at most. He could probably get ~$54M for 3 though, so I don’t think 4 years is realistic.
He’s ours after Cole signs with the Yanks.
I got Donaldson and Ryu going to the Rangers in my picks. Rumors are looking good thus far.
Love to see him on the South side of Chicago
If the QO weighs his market down, I’m all for Phillies checking in. I could go for 2/34 or 3/45, although I can’t imagine the Dodgers not offering that themselves.
He doesn’t have a QO
True, forgot he played on it this year. I’ll see myself out.
When Boras said Cole is going to wait until 2020 to sign, that means the Angels have dropped out of the Cole bidding. Moreno is not going to wait until 2020 for Cole and then be left without a chair in the game of musical free agent signings.
Wheeler and Ryu make sense for the Angels and for Wheeler (Callaway) and Ryu (doesn’t have to move).
His objective is a three year deal. Not two, not four, three. And he’ll get it.
Man, people are quick to bail on the whole “Cole to the Angels” thing.
Thurman8er
My position on Cole has always been the same. The Angels will make him a great offer and if Cole wants to play for the Angels he’ll take it. If Boras prolongs the negotiations the Angels will drop out.
When Boras said Cole is going to sign in 2020, I concluded the Angels are to not going hang around.
When people get more information, they should apply it.
Why doesn’t somebody work on this guys mechanics? That’s usually a big part of the problem for pitchers that get injured this frequently. He is probably coming close to injuring himself every time he throws the ball. I could see the Braves maybe going after him if they can get it insured. I’ve heard a lot of rumors about MadBum but this guy had a better season and would be a cheaper/shorter term contract that comes without draft compensation. We all know how much the Braves hate giving up draft compensation. I would think the Braves would go pretty hard after Grandal as well. If not him then maybe darnaud. Either that or they will just have to settle for trying to resign Cervelli.
Have you ever seen Ryu pitch?
Hard pass for the Rangers. I have a long memory and this guy has Chan Ho Park II written all over him. Too many similarities coming from the Dodgers with a good year and a bunch of red flags. The Rangers made a huge mistake giving Park a 5 year deal and I don’t want to see them burned again.
I vehemently disagree. There is no comparison except they are both Asians. Park never put up numbers as Ryu has demonstrably proven.
Ryu can be had with a medium sized contract. If the Rangers offered his 4 years, $60 million guaranteed, with incentives tied to innings pitched that could drive his salary over $20 million if he hit benchmarks at 175, 190, and 2o0 inning pitched. Say each benchmark paid an extra $2 million bonus, that would be 21 million which is fair for both sides. You can’t really expect to pay less than 15 million/year, and even $60 million might not get it done if teams get in on the bidding. Without his injury history and age, his production last year would warrant at least $25 million/year, if he was only 30 with no major histories. So it is a gamble, but Ryu is more Maddox than Cole, and with his arsenal and command of the baseball, he should be able to produce like Greinke does, without overpowering stuff if he remains healthy. This is a gamble the Rangers need to take. I don’t see any of the other big names wanting to come to Texas. We always get the pitchers like Minor (Injury), Lynn (Age and production issues), pitchers usually on the downward spiral (Shelby Miller). Some Gambles pay off, as Lynn and Minor were way more productive than I ever would have thought. Ryu could be the next gamble to pay off, and the Rangers will be lucky to afford him.
You have to aim high, but I just don’t see 4 years with his injuries. He was awfully good last year but geez. 2-3 years at best. 3 years is pretty generous.
Most west coast teams make sense, I’m betting he goes to Seattle or resigns with the dodgers
Funny how everyone keeps mentioning Ryu’s IL history when some other pitchers with just as much IL records get multi-year deals easily.
I would say Ryu will get either 3 year or 3+1 year kind of deals with solid base salary and lots of incentives.
Exactly. The big worry injuries are four and more years behind him. If you’re looking to understand an injury history the concerns are with chronic issues. He’s had a lot of injuries, but none that recur. It’s pretty difficult to come to a logical medical conclusion on the basis of a bunch of unrelated acute injuries, not that this stops a lot of baseball fans from looking at some numbers and playing doctor.
I think Ryu could be the steal of the off-season for whoever winds up signing him. I mean don’t get me wrong he isn’t going to be “cheap” by any means but if healthy he has a chance to out-pitch even Cole and Strasburg – at least ERA-wise. And he’s presumably going to be had for close to have the cost. I know there will be a question of how the back end of the deal’s years go and his durability in general given recent season’s injuries. But IF healthy — I think he could be a HUGE difference maker for whoever winds up signing him.
Could definitely see the Yankees going after him if they miss out on Cole strausburg and Wheeler. Although, all reports indicate the Yankees will finally have a desire to go over there spending limit to get a Ace. I know that sounds funny given it is the Yankees but lately they normally have a value on a player and will not go over that number but, all reports indicate they are willing to do that now.
With Hamels gone and Quintana and Lester next year , cubs should consider him 3 years and 4 if must have
As he gets up there in age, I’d rather see Ryu stay in the NL as he would typically have to face one less batter with the pitcher hitting 9th.
However if the Angels could snag both Cole as a #1 and Ryu as a #2, that would be a massive improvement to their team. I’m not an Angels fan but I hate to see Mike Trout’s talents get wasted every year. And there’s only two more years of Pujols’s contract so that money will come off the books way sooner then say…. the once phenom Miguel Cabrera.
Spend Artie! Spend! You can’t have Trout and not make the playoffs again!
Not included in this article (and should have been) are Friedman’s comments about the possibility of re-signing Ryu. Not that he said a lot (he never does) but it did sound like a conversation of some sort had started. They were supposed to be meeting with his agent (Boras) on Wednesday.
Give him 3 years, Friedman. He’ll be our new Rich Hill
Likely destination for RYU – the Rangers. Big plus it won’t cost the club a second round draft pick. History of injuries are worrisome, but I think he is past that now.