There are multiple ways to evaluate the performance of hitters in Major League Baseball. You can go by the traditional back-of-the-baseball-card statistics, FanGraphs metrics or even the newfangled Statcast numbers we’ve seen pop up over the past couple years. For the purpose of this piece, we’ll go Statcast style to take a look at the hitters who are scheduled to be available in the upcoming offseason’s free-agent class. Here are the standouts at each position when it comes to expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls (data courtesy of Baseball Savant)…
Catchers:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Yasmani Grandal .362 (real wOBA: .365)
- Jason Castro .362 (.331)
- Alex Avila .352 (.327)
- Travis d’Arnaud .328 (.318)
- Stephen Vogt .326 (.336)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Â Chris Iannetta 97.2 mph
- Alex Avila 96.6
- Jason Castro 96.5
- Welington Castillo 96.2
- Travis d’Arnaud 93.6
First basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
- David Freese .378 (.420)
- Justin Smoak .367 (.327)
- Kendrys Morales .366 (.265)
- Jose Abreu .361 (.349)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Lucas Duda 96.4 mph
- Jose Abreu 96.1
- Mitch Moreland 95.8
- Matt Adams 95.6 (will become free agent if Nationals choose $1MM buyout over $4MM option)
- Howie Kendrick 94.4
Second basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Howie Kendrick .418 (.405)
- Brian Dozier .329 (.333)
- Brock Holt .315 (.336)
- Jason Kipnis .312 (.305)
- Ben Zobrist .310 (.305)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Â Howie Kendrick 94.4 mph
- Jonathan Schoop 93.5
- Eduardo Nunez/Chris Owings 93.1
- Brian Dozier 92.9
- Logan Forsythe 92.8
Shortstops:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Jordy Mercer .320 (.318)
- Adeiny Hechavarria .296 (.316)
- Didi Gregorius .291 (.302)
- Jose Iglesias .287 (.309)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Â Adeiny Hechavarria 92.8 mph
- Jordy Mercer 92.2
- Didi Gregorius 91.8
- Jose Iglesias 87.5
Third basemen:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Â Anthony Rendon .413 (.418)
- Josh Donaldson .386 (.382)
- Mike Moustakas .345 (.353)
- Pablo Sandoval .337 (.341)
- Logan Forsythe .320 (.301)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Josh Donaldson 98.1
- Jung Ho Kang 97.1
- Pablo Sandoval 95.2
- Mike Moustakas 93.8
- Anthony Rendon 93.5
Outfielders:
Expected weighted on-base average
- Marcell Ozuna .379 (.340)
- Nicholas Castellanos .362 (.360)
- Hunter Pence .358 (.382)
- Matt Joyce .355 (.375)
- Avisail Garcia .344 (.338)
Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls
- Â Marcell Ozuna 96.3 mph
- Hunter Pence 95.4
- Avisail Garcia 95.2
- Kole Calhoun 95.0 (Angels can buy Calhoun out for $1MM or exercise a $14MM option)
- Yasiel Puig 94.2
I hope the Tigers acquire Adeiny Hechavarria and keep him and not trade him mid season.
Never thought I’d see the day when two baseball men are shootin the shuck at the baseball field looking at a group of young of players and asking “Expected weighted on-base average” this year”?
You got to find the nerd for that
Donaldson just smashing baseballs.
Kendrick, kipnis, or gregorius in infield for Cubs. Castellanos In of
Wow. One thing I’ll say is that whole group makes me feel a lot better about the current Pittsburgh Pirates entire Infield, Outfield, and Catcher.
I could see a full season of Jacob Stallings fitting right in there in the number 2 slot of that list of catchers. If one were to compute his hitting numbers out to a full season, they would come out better than anyone outside of Grandal.
Stallings has a decent enough glove and the pitchers seem to like his work too. He has a good baseball mind and leadership qualities. A better back-up would help a lot, unless Elias Diaz can get back to his 2018 numbers.
Also hitting-wise as a whole, I’ll take the Shortstop/Second Baseman combo of Kevin Newman & Adam Frazier over any on that list.
Outfielders Bryan Reynolds & Starling Marte are better in left & center than any available free agent. Only right field is a question mark right now, but if Gregory Polanco can be fully healthy it would alleviate that.
Pirates starting lineup is actually decent.The pitching is what needs to be upgraded,although in house options are adequate if all are healthy.They do need a #1 and #2 pitcher to compete though so hopefully Keller can adapt quickly and two of Musgrove,Williams,and Archer meet previous competence levels.
The fielding definitely needs to get better.They reached a torpor with Hurdle so hopefully the new manager injects some enthusiasm and the bullpen is used better.
No more AAA pitchers.That is up to NH.
The Pirates were 20th in runs scored.
Their lineup stinks.
Their biggest problem is a lack of power.
Twentieth place hardly stinks.They also had one of the top batting averages in the NL.
I will keep with my decent rating.The group is also fairly young so they have room for improvement.
Which just goes to show that On Base Pct. is not the end-all be-all that everyone thinks it is.
You have to be able to produce runs, and that comes with good slugging. I weigh slugging to be more important than OBP, so I think it is dumb to combine the two for the OPS. You need to know exactly how much of each of those you have. If all of the OPS points come from OBP, you will never realize how bad your slugging might be.
I’d rather separate them into the two categories and never even pay attention to the combined number because it just gives false impressions.
One thing that happens when people think walks are such a great thing, is that those walks might be coming from your clean up hitters, which is totally stupid. Your clean-up hitters need to be swinging the bat and slugging and moving runners forward, not waiting for the perfect pitch.
I’ve always been of the persuasion that if I’m managing a team, and my clean-up hitters are walking, I would fine them for every time they took a walk with runners already on base, unless they were just given absolutely no pitches that could be reached.
A good clean-up hitter needs to learn to hit pitches out of the strike zone, and not accept free passes, because if they do, they have been defeated by the opposing pitcher. So people should not be so worried about free-swingers. Those guys are greatly needed on a team.
They will strike out more than normal, but it’s worth the effort to move those runners toward the plate, because after all, the object of the game is to score runs, above all else. And those high strike-out guys who slug well, should never be penalized in any way for that.
End of rant, sorry.
The Pirates also lost their best player or best trade chip for absolutely nothing. It’s not the Organizations fault but that’s a real tough pill to swallow in that division. I can’t see this current squad making any kind of noise.
That’s what happens when you hold onto players when you have no real use for them. You could get so much back for them. There was no way of knowing that bombshell was going to be dropped onto the organization. Player risks can come from anywhere. Rebuilding teams must sell them when hot. They are assists, after all.
No, take the walk. Swinging at pitches outside the zone decreases the likelihood of getting a hit, let alone an extra base hit. Taking a walk increases the likelihood of scoring a run. Getting on base (by any means) has a correlation with scoring runs, swinging at pitches outside the strike zone does not.
Assets, not assists. I’m a dork.
Henry, if you feel that SLG is more important than OBP I have no issues but to encourage more strikeouts and less walks is one of the least intelligent things i’ve heard. If your 3 and 4 hitters are consistently walking that means your 5 and 6 hitters are always getting up with runners on base. If those hitters can’t get it done, it’s on them, not the guys standing on 1st and 2nd.
wOBA does address some of the issues you rightly identified. Singles are more valuable in wOBA because there is the potential to move a runner beyond a single base.
I don’t think you are taking a few things into account here.
Marte probably gets traded in the off season.
Stallings didn’t exactly light up the stats sheet with his 87 OPS+. Believing he would be the second best catcher, as far as hitting goes, behind Grandal is just silly.
Polanco may never get back to his prior injury ways.
The Pirates have a nice player in Bell, but if he continues hitting this well, there’s no way he’ll accept a discounted contract and Nutting won’t OK a long term contract at value.
Batty- some comments on your fine post.
I doubt that NH trades Marte unless he is overwhelmed.
Stallings hit better than most thought,and played very well for a backup catcher.Keep in mind that Henry is just comparing to this five man list.Even then it is a stretch but not so if he improves again as much as he did last year.
I find it hard to believe that the doctors cannot get Polanco back to normal given one year and eight months but if they do not they should be fired.
Keep in mind that Bell hit even worse than in 2018 after June 1.
My money is on Marte being traded.
If Stallings remains a backup catcher, then his numbers won’t be quite as important. But to tout him as the possible second best hitting catcher is without a doubt silly.
Yes, he does somewhat only compare what they have to the list in this article, but that won’t be the entire list of available players and the Pirates roster is in no way competitive.
Some injuries can’t be overcome. Doctors aren’t miracle workers and sometimes careers end early because of that.
It’s funny how so many players tail off after a strong start. Yes, Bell did that very thing, but young players tend to have that happen.
I can see the dodgers signing Vogt to backup Smith and platoon around the diamond. He seems like a logical fit given the dodgers like the versatile and platoon type players.
What about Austin Barnes over Vogt?
Highest xwOBA of last year’s FA hitter class: Steve Pearce. 7th highest exit velocity in the group too. Goes to show that these expected, Statcast-based numbers are far from gospel.
Kendrick back to the Angels on a three year deal. After the Angels most likely trade Simmons. The Angels could have a infield of Thaiss at first base LaStella at second Kendrick at third and Fletcher at short. With Wong as the back up infielder.
Kendrick is a fine player but he is hurt every year and in that respect cannot be depended upon.
You could say the same thing about Rendon. Simmons is another one you could say that about. Donaldson is another one. But I bet you would want your favorite team to over pay those 3.