As we all look forward to Game 5 of the World Series, let’s run through some noteworthy items from around the baseball world…
- Should Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez elect to opt out of the three years and $62.5MM remaining on his deal, the White Sox look like the “consensus” top suitor for the 32-year-old’s services, Rob Bradford of WEEI relays. At this juncture, it seems unlikely that NL teams would enter the Martinez sweepstakes given his shortcomings as a defensive outfielder. Of course, the lack of an NL market severely restricts the potential market for Martinez, a factor that he’ll surely consider as he weighs whether to enter free agency. What’s more: if he does, he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning that a signing team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. All those things make it markedly more difficult to identify realistic landing spots for the hitting virtuoso, though the White Sox may stand above the rest.
- As the Rays prepare to embark on the offseason, they’ll have to evaluate Travis d’Arnaud’s role in their 2020 catching situation, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The ex-Met emerged as a surprising offensive contributor after he was acquired in a nondescript May trade, ending the season with a .782 OPS for the Rays. Fellow catcher Mike Zunino’s fate might depend on what happens with d’Arnaud, who has a chance to earn a two-year deal at a $6MM or $7MM AAV. If the Rays choose to keep him around at that price, Zunino may become expendable after a disappointing offensive season. Meanwhile, letting d’Arnaud walk would put pressure on Zunino to improve on the dreadful .544 OPS he posted in his first season with the Rays. Otherwise, the team could once again turn to external options.
- When it’s all said and done, the 2011 first-year player draft may go down as one of the best in baseball history, writes Dan Connolly of The Athletic. It’s a timely retrospective, with the stars of the class on full display in this year’s World Series: the Astros’ George Springer and Gerrit Cole, as well as the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon, all came from the 2011 first round (Cole and Rendon, it’s worth noting, will also be the offseason’s two most sought-after free agents). Trea Turner, meanwhile, was a 20th-round choice the same year. And that’s not to mention the bevy of stars that play elsewhere in the Majors: Mookie Betts, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor, and Javier Báez all come from the ranks of the 2011 draft, which also featured “what-if” stories like Dylan Bundy and the late José Fernández. Connolly also considers the pivotal selection of Danny Hultzen by the Mariners, which could have had a profound effect on the rest of the draft had they instead opted for Rendon, their second choice. The 2011 draft has already earned its place among the all-time great draft classes, which is doubly impressive considering that it’s collectively still in its prime years.
Can’t forget the Mets #1 pick in the 2011 Draft: Brandon Nimmo!!
jk.
Note: Nimmo is a solid player but not on the level of Springer, Rendon, Cole or even the late J. Fernandez was.
That Mets draft class isn’t terrible, all things considered. Nimmo, Fulmer, Gsellman, Gant and Lugo.
Nimmo has posted a 6+ WAR and OPS+ of 131 in his last 900 AB, you might want to find a better examples of failure (there are more than enough) from that 1st round.
Also Nimmo was a high school player, not a college player.
Technically he wasn’t even a high school player, as they don’t play high school baseball in his home state. Pretty amazing anyone comes out of the northern rocky mountain states.
Lindor and Baez were selected out of high school as well
I don’t get JD n Boras! To make changes fir a couple more million is beyond me. I really disliked JD comment about switching teams a few weeks ago when he said he liked it. To my thinking he was waving goodbye to Boston, who gave him a job when everyone passed on him.
Awe.. poor Red Sox.
Sniff sniff..
They did that to DET too.
Yup
a little pie on the sky in your beliefs about players on general, eh?
JD will not opt out. It would be stupid. He’s not getting more than 23 million from anyone, not at his age, not with hi glove, which was worse last season than before. The speculation over it has always been hyped.
Jack, JD feels like he was underpaid, which is so stupid. He isn’t a Big Papi! His back troubled him all yr till the end when he knew teams would look at his yr.
@pasha2k
Dude had a ..939 OPS with 36 hrs. That’s elite level hitting. I can absolutely see some team giving him a 3/$75 mil deal which would be about $12 mil more than what he’s guaranteed. If he feels that 2020 is going to be a transition year for the Sox he might want a change of scenery.
One out the box location might be Toronto. JD was given credit with his work habits towards hitting rubbing off on the other younger hitters. Toronto might want JD to mentor their younger hitters. They might splurge. It would be a good investment.
Couldn’t see the Jays interested. Not giving a DH 25 mil a year when we just had to work to give away the last DH (Morales). Jays will be looking for either an impact CF (which are rarely available) or an impact RF and move Grichuk to CF. Either way, they’ll be looking for someone who can catch a ball
What’s wrong with wanting to live in different cities over a career?
He is doing Boston a favor if he opts out, that is best case scenario and has been since he signed. He comes and has two great seasons, brings a ring, leaves and gets a bigger contract while leaving us a draft pick. Best case scenario when he signed and still best case.
@pasha2k
Who “gave” him a job? He wasn’t a destitute youth given his first job. He held out for the most money possible and the Sox gave it to him. If not them, then he would’ve signed elsewhere for a little less money. Not like he was going to be forced into retirement.
It’s Rob Bradford not Chad
Turner didn’t officially get drafted until a few yeara later tho in the 1st.
He was “officially” drafted but didn’t sign.
Chef throwing out first ball tonight. Then watch something else. Maybe some PBS shows. Probably watch game 6, they’re usually good games.
I remember the first draft. That wasn’t too bad a class either. Some guys named Ryan, Bench, Seaver, Bando, Messersmith. Nettles. Monday and Holtsman went in it. You might remember some of them.
White Sox have spent the last half-decade acquiring nearly a dozen DH types.
But they are absolutely foolish enough to spend $75mil and a draft pick on a declining RH DH..
Spend 1/3rd of your payroll on 1B and DH, Rick. You genius.
Add him to the pile of terrible FA signings in the Hahn era.
So putting the “Hahn” era into context, he took over to team with a mediocre roster, and an owner who wouldn’t spend on impact player in free agency. He convinced Ken Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf that rebuilding the entire organization from the minors up was the way to go. In order for a rebuild to work, you need free agent players on short term contracts as placeholders (and tank) while assembling and developing prospects. So your characterization of Hahn doesn’t hold up to scrutiny when put into context. He’s managed to payroll wisely, and should reap the benefits of that the next two offseasons. I can see the White Sox comfortably adding $120MM in payroll by 2021 as they transition into contention mode.
Sorry for the unedited reply, my iPhone is a beast to type on.
the snake at the top hasn’t ever spent nor will he. worst owner in history
Hahn’s been GM since 2012.
Cabrera, LaRoche, Hudson, Kusoke, F, Keppinger, Soto, Latos, Bonifacio, Duke, Albers, Navarro, Avila, Lawrie, Frazier, Morneau all FA’s signed by Rick on teams that were supposed to compete.
“Rebuild entire org” Getz, Steverson, Renteria, Hostetler, Poe, Vizquel all flops. Continues to oversee the smallest least creative analytics dept in MLB.
Traded Sale, Eaton and Q, tanked 3 season and ended up right back where they were in 2014. Needing to spend big to keep from another stars and scabs roster while praying for good luck due to a lack of meaningful depth.
Except they don’t need to spend big. I just demonstrated that. The young players give them financial flexibility they didn’t have before. Hahn has said the plan is to add payroll this offseason, and that the money will get spent. All we can do is trust him at this point. If the Sox fail to sign anyone of note, then all bets are off.
@pplama Exactly. Couldn’t have said it better.
Yah, outside of the fact that they didn’t have young impact talent anywhere other than pitcher back then, they’re in the exact same spot. Great call.
This team is in much better shape going forward than the 2014 team.
Sale, Eaton, Abreu, Quintana was the core.
People thought Anderson, Garcia, Rodon, Montas, Fulmer and Davidson would be the homegrown, cost controlled youngsters that would make big FA signings unnecesary.
Now it’s Moncada, Giolito and Anderson’s .400 BABIP as the core. With Kopech, Cease, Vaughn, Robert and Madrigal that Sox fans are convinced will be big contributers in short order. (after hopes were dashed on Collins, Burger, Lopez, Burdi, Hansen and Rutherford)
Right back where they were.
But it will all be different this time, because……
Their improved draft strategy? Nope. Manager? Nope. Player development? Nope. Improvements in health and training? Nope. Cutting edge analytics? Nope. Changes in scouting and FA targeting? Nope. Critical mass of prospect depth? HA! Nope.
This thing called talent. They have a heck of a lot more of it now.
The Sox never had this much talent on their roster with such a small payroll. Look it up. Heck, I’ll even go as far as to say this team has the potential to be better than the WS team in ‘05.
That 2005 team was more of a patchwork job, definitely not built from the ground up like the current group of White Sox who are mainly composed of June Draft picks, international signings and prospects acquired through trades. This current group also has a solid balance of pitchers and hitters, much more so than the recent Cubs and Astros rebuilds that concentrated on drafting young hitters while acquiring veteran pitching through trades and free agency.
Hopefully JR will now step up and supplement this talented young core with the necessary dollars the front office needs to finish the job with with an impact veteran hitter and pitcher this offseason and next.
@pplama
I’m not advocating the signing but JD still had an elite season in 2019. Being that his body is saved from playing defense he can still hit well for another few years like David Ortiz did. He could be a real mentor to their young hitters. He has a rep for having great know how on how to use advance analytics and he’s one of the most prepared hitters in the game. Sometimes a great talent needs a vet to help get the best of it. I have no idea how good the W.Sox hitting coach is but I think JD can do for the W. Sox hitter what Verlander did for Cole and what JD did to Betts, Boegarts and Devers.
My offseason wishlist for the White Sox:
1. Re-sign Abreu (2 years).
2. Add 1 of Cole/Strasburg/Bumgarner/Keuchel.
3. Sign Puig for RF (2 yrs, option for 3).
4. Sign J.D. Martinez, Kendrick or Castellanos for DH.
That should about do it. Trade for bullpen or starting pitching help as needed at the deadline and cruise to a 90+ win season and a playoff run in 2020.
The article “implies” the CWS are a likely landing spot for JDM “only if he opts out”.
So what does that tell you if you’re JDM?
You’ll never be able to do better than the contract you now have.
Assuming that’s correct then it stands to reason he doesn’t opt out and stays in Boston.
And it stands to reason the Red Sox probably won’t be able to easily move him.
Thus Mookie Betts is the “likely” candidate to be shipped out this winter.
Assuming Boston want’s to get under $208M in 2020?
If that’s not as big a priority as keeping Mookie then we’ll find out.
If I’m John Henry I go over the $208M in 2020, bite the bullet, and let Chaim Bloom work his magic gradually over 2020 and 2021 and beyond.
It’s probably worth it to have some flexibility in your arsenal and not empty the cupboard in 2020.
Unless of course they get an offer they can’t refuse. LOL
2011 draft was a good 1 and smart organizations realized last before new restrictions on drafting/spending would come into place.. I’ve mentioned this numerous times before, but the Rays had an amazing *11* picks believe it was in the 1st 100 and hit on think was 1-2. They gave slot-minus on all. I’m not looking it up this time, like usually do, but how many organizations with that many premium picks wouldn’t have shot for the moon on 3-4?
I’ll always remember as the picks were rattled off that draft and shaking my head as the Rays went further and further down the rankings list after kids with the best draft (kids wise) in probably decades and blew it.
As a RS fan, I remember that. We played the draft pick game pretty well, but that was the best manipulation I’ve ever seen, probably in any sport. 10 picks in the top 60. If it helps, after Wong at #22, the rest of the first round had only 3 10 WAR players, and TB got one of them.
With all the high picks the mariners have had they should have a great team. Maybe they need to get rid of everyone who scouts and develops players. Its sad how bad they drafted.
They haven’t really had high picks. They’ve been 75+ win team for the last 5-6 seasons. The Ms are the #4 farm right now. They are coming. I’m betting on a white Sox/mariners Alcs in 21.
They gonna offer him a contract that is entirely incentive based then throw a temper tantrum when he signs with someone else for more guaranteed money?
Yah, totally. Then maybe they can hire Bochy to manage the team in 2021, since he made it pretty clear that he’s not “Done. Period.”
The Rays should let Td’A test free agency. This was his first year he actually was in uniform for much of the season. No one is paying $6m per in my view. After testing free agency, my thinking is he resigns for one year at S3.5m with a $4.5m second year or a $500k buyout so if he reverts to his Mets days and ends up on the IL for most of the year, the Rays move on.
The thing with jd is don’t bid against yourself. If nobody will give him more than 3 years $75 million don’t be the team to do 5 for $110
The vast majority of JDM comments here show posters do not recall what his actual contract is.
1) he gets paid $2.5m to opt out.
2) because of the opt out bonus he gets anyways, his MAX extra he can earn by staying and has to beat is only an extra 21.25m 2020, and 19m in each of 2021&22.
3) I say maximum because only 2020 is truly guaranteed anyways.
Nobody seems to remember that because of the foot issues JD had in the past, there’s a number of technical clauses (that beg for grievances if used) which boils down to two things. Either of year 4 or 5 converts to a mutual option respectively if there is 1) a foot injury in any way related to what JD injured in the past, where 2) either 60 days are spent on the IL the year before, or, min 10 days are spent in preceding year with a combined 120 days in the preceding 2 years.
So class, the takeaways here?
1) JD only had to sign for 59.25m/3yr to match the MAXIMUM he will earn in boston, but, 2) his MINIMUM remaining guarantee only requires a 1yr 21.25m deal since A) a total of 60 days on the IL in either yr 3 or 4 converts the following year into a mutual option, or B) 120 days on the IL combined in years 3&4 with at least 10 of those in year 4 would make year 5 a mutual option. (Technically year 4 could also follow the formula, but, due to lack of IL time in year 2, meeting this requirement requires more than the 60 days required under option A so it’s moot.)
Unlike your vanilla opt-out, JD has other considerations – ie risk of injury – to consider leaving early and finding a deal that doesn’t allow the team to essentially void his remaining guarantees without penalty after any following season should he be iured
Sweet baby Jesus & the orphans. You’re his agent.
Thank you for that detailed analysis.
I suspect it was easier for man to land on the moon than understanding the ins and outs of his contract.
It would probably be easier to get rid of JDM than go through hiring a lawyer each time it involves looking into the nuances of his contract.
LOL
@As fan – I could only wish. The fees would be awesome, but alas, I’m nothing but a lowly Sox fan.
@SG – I really wish MLBTR would start up a post re-educating people here exactly what the contract JDM is looking at opting out of entails. In the absence of that I try to fill the void when dropping in a thread.
Lots of conversation here is basically pointless because people don’t see how things are and hypothesize and argue based on false assumptions.
So you’re basically saying it’s in JDM’s interest to opt out for more guaranteed money without restrictions.
Correct.
JDM has to know his market is limited and even further limited if the acquiring team wants to impose health based restrictions just as Boston did . Not only the foot but now his back..
The White Sox in the distant (Frank Thomas diminished skills clause) and more recent (Manny Machado , age based plate appearances) past are risk adverse to high cost players. I do not see them offering a restriction-less contract to JDM..
Opting out for him is still debatable.
Jeez… so much angst among Sox fans. ha
We all know Jerry’s one of the worst owners in professional sports when it comes to spending money. But the Sox have been gearing up for this for a while now. Salary commitments for the next few years are historically low, and they planned it that way specifically to sign higher quality free agents once the prospects start showing up. Let’s see what Hahn’s about to do this offseason before Sox fans breakout the torches and pitchforks. I’ll be the first one to yell BTMF down if they end up with no significant additions to the roster (aside from the same garbage they ALWAYS sign cuz no one else wants them).
*able to do
I’ve given up on the White Sox getting Cole, but getting JDM would take them from worst DH in the league to best overnight. I know it’s a pipe dream to imagine Jerry cracking open his wallet that far, but this would be a great time to spend and a great player to spend it on.
When you just said “it’s a pipe dream to imagine Jerry cracking open his wallet that far”, this is why I can see the Red Sox cutting payroll.
For the simple reason that not many teams are adding to theirs.
There are only a handful of teams that want to and can compete with Boston financially.
Boston has finally seen that and has added Chaim Bloom to stop competing with itself and to cut expensive players and add better value to out of control spending.
Financial sanity has finally prevailed in Boston it seems.
Rather have Abreu back for fraction of the cost! JDM not really an upgrade & will likely be more expensive!