After posting only a 29-30 record through June 2, the Indians played .621 baseball the rest of the way but couldn’t catch up to the Twins in the AL Central, or to the Athletics and Rays in the AL wild card race. It was a tough result for a team in “win-now” mode, and now the Tribe will have to retool in order to take advantage while their (perhaps rapidly closing?) competitive window is still open.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Carrasco, SP: $37.25MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)
- Corey Kluber, SP: $17.5MM through 2020 (club option will be exercised; Indians also have $18MM club option for 2021 with $1MM buyout)
- Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM through 2020 ($17.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout)
- Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $17.25MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022)
- Brad Hand, RP: $7MM through 2020 ($10MM club option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
- Roberto Perez, C: $3.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM club option for 2021, $450K buyout)
- Oliver Perez, RP: $3MM through 2020
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Danny Salazar – $4.5MM
- Francisco Lindor – $16.7MM
- Kevin Plawecki – $1.5MM
- Cody Anderson – $800K
- Nick Goody – $1.1MM
- Nick Wittgren – $1.3MM
- Mike Clevinger – $4.5MM
- Tyler Naquin – $1.8MM
- A.J. Cole – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Salazar, Cole
Option Decisions
- Jason Kipnis, 2B: $16.5MM club option for 2020 will be declined (Kipnis gets $2.5MM buyout)
- Dan Otero, RP: $1.5MM club option for 2020 will be declined (Otero gets $100K buyout)
Free Agents
- Yasiel Puig, Tyler Clippard, Ryan Flaherty, Kipnis, Otero
Looking at the position players, Cleveland has a very nice core group of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, and Franmil Reyes heading into 2020. Jordan Luplow’s huge numbers against left-handed pitching will merit at least a platoon role in either corner outfield slot, and since the Tribe’s outfield situation is still rather unsettled outside of Mercado in center field, Luplow has a decent shot of winning an everyday job in Spring Training.
It also remains to be seen if Reyes could be an option in right field. Though Reyes has shown very little fielding aptitude over his young career, the Indians would certainly like to see if Reyes can be a passable option on at least a part-time basis before relegating him to DH-only duty at age 24. One would also think that the Indians would prefer to keep the designated hitter position open so multiple players could be rotated through DH days in order to keep everyone fresh.
Assuming Reyes will mostly be a DH in 2020, that leaves Luplow, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, and Bradley Zimmer battling for playing time in the corner outfield slots, with Tyler Naquin entering the mix sometime between mid-April or mid-June as he recovers from a torn ACL. Prospect Daniel Johnson (acquired from the Nationals in last offseason’s Yan Gomes trade) is also knocking on the door after a big season at Triple-A.
It isn’t a stellar collection of names on paper, but there’s enough promise here that Cleveland might prefer to see what it has rather than pursue an everyday corner outfielder (like, for instance, a re-signed Yasiel Puig). In particular, the Indians are hoping that Bauers can start to blossom after a disappointing first year in Cleveland, while Zimmer is looking to get his career on track after missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to shoulder surgery. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians sign a veteran to a minor league deal for extra depth, or perhaps a multi-position utility type to fill holes all over the diamond.
Ramirez has said he wants to remain at one single position in 2020 rather than alternate between second and third base, though he is open to playing either position, giving the Indians some flexibility as they look for infield help. It doesn’t seem like longtime second baseman Jason Kipnis will be brought back at a lower price tag after the Tribe declined his $16.5MM option, leaving the team with Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, and Yu Chang as internal candidates.
Needless to say, the Indians don’t have the payroll space to shop at the very top of the free agent infield market (i.e. Anthony Rendon or old friend Josh Donaldson). And the presence of top third base prospect Nolan Jones will further preclude any type of truly long-term signing, as Jones could potentially make his MLB debut as early as the second half of the 2020 season.
Players like Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard are coming off big seasons yet could likely be had on one-year contracts. Along those same lines, productive veterans like Starlin Castro, Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, or former Clevelander Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued in free agency.
Depending on how much the Tribe are willing to spend, Mike Moustakas seems like a realistic option. The Moose has had trouble finding even a multi-year contract the last two offseasons, despite still swinging an above-average bat and slugging 101 homers over the last three seasons. Since Moustakas is likely to decline his end of an $11MM mutual option with the Brewers for 2020, a modest two-year offer for maybe only a bit more than that $11MM average annual value should get his attention.
Such a signing would essentially just replace Kipnis’ declined salary commitment with Moustakas — certainly an upgrade on the field, though perhaps not a move the cost-conscious Indians are looking to make. Spending cuts were a big factor in last year’s offseason moves and even into the year, as evidenced by the trade deadline blockbuster with the Reds and Padres that saw Trevor Bauer moved to Cincinnati, and Reyes, Yasiel Puig, young pitching prospect Logan Allen and two other minor leaguers come to Cleveland.
The biggest looming payroll question, of course, is Lindor’s status as both the Tribe’s best player and biggest trade chip. Lindor is projected to earn $16.7MM via arbitration next season, a raise of $6.15MM from his 2019 salary, and putting him on a likely path to a salary in the $23MM range for 2021. Indians owner Paul Dolan’s already-infamous comment from last March that Cleveland fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens” with a potential extension doesn’t overly optimistic about the chances of Lindor staying in a Tribe uniform for the long term. Dolan’s interview also cited a lack of bonus revenue from postseason games as a reason for last winter’s payroll-lessening measures (the 2018 Indians had just one postseason home game during a three-game sweep at the Astros’ hands in the ALDS), and thus a spending increase doesn’t seem likely coming off a season that saw the Indians miss the playoffs entirely.
Having a superstar like Lindor on the books for roughly $40MM over a two-year span is still a bargain even for a smaller-market team like the Indians, of course, so there’s certainly value in keeping him around. But given how the Tribe shopped Bauer and Corey Kluber last offseason before eventually moving Bauer at the deadline, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office at least discuss Lindor with other teams this winter if for no other reason to see what a rival could potentially offer. Needless to say, the Indians would want a haul of MLB-ready talent and prospects to move the All-Star shortstop, but if Cleveland finds a team willing to meet that price, a Lindor trade can’t be ruled out. The Dodgers have already come up as a potential fit for Lindor.
A Lindor trade would be the kind of franchise-altering move that could potentially address all of Cleveland’s offseason needs in one fell swoop. Dealing Kluber could have brought back a similar package last offseason, though the former two-time AL Cy Young Award winner’s trade value isn’t nearly as high in the wake of a season that saw Kluber make just seven starts due to a fractured forearm and then an oblique strain.
Despite this lost year, Kluber’s $17.5MM club option was still exercised by the Indians. Letting him go for nothing wouldn’t have been too logical, given the chances that Kluber could quite possibly bounce back and look like his old self. A Kluber trade can’t be entirely ruled out this offseason, just in case an aggressive team is willing to offer something at least in the neighborhood of a trade package befitting an ace-level pitcher, which would leave Cleveland in an interesting conundrum.
Starting pitching, after all, is the Tribe’s biggest strength. Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger project as strong front-of-the-rotation arms, with Carlos Carrasco looking to return after battling leukemia last summer, rookies Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both making strong first impressions in 2019, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez on hand as further depth options, and Allen approaching big league readiness. If Kluber and Carrasco both return to form, the Indians will be left with the enviable problem of having almost too much pitching, though that depth will almost surely be necessary given the inevitability of injuries or downturns in performance.
An argument could be made that the Indians could turn one of their younger pitchers into a trade chip, though that seems a little less likely given how controllable young arms are such an especially big asset to a lower-payroll team like Cleveland. The Tribe might also want that extra depth in the fold given the uncertainty around Kluber and Carrasco heading into 2020. One pitcher who likely won’t be back is Danny Salazar, as two straight years of virtual inactivity will make him a non-tender candidate.
The starting pitching depth could be translated into extra bullpen help, and since the Indians’ relief corps is already pretty solid, any reliever shopping this winter is more likely to take the form of minor league signings. There probably isn’t quite enough depth that the Tribe would feel totally secure in trading Brad Hand, and a $7MM salary isn’t onerous for a closer of Hand’s caliber.
Ramirez and Carrasco are the only two Cleveland players on guaranteed contracts for 2021, and several big names (Santana, Kluber, Hand, Perez) are on club options for that season. Though Lindor and many other key talents will still be in their arbitration or pre-arb years, 2020 stands a pivotal year for this core group given the amount of roster churn that could be on the horizon next winter.
President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have shown a lot of creativity in assembling this roster and supplementing it with a strong pipeline of young players, especially pitchers. Yet the Twins’ emergence in the AL Central has narrowed the Indians’ margin for error rather considerably, and another missed postseason could lead to many more tough decisions.
Any trade partners in mind for a bat?
Or is this team okay as is?
What do you guys think?
They need an outfielder and a 2B. Don’t know if they’ll spend the money on guys though. If Lindor is sold that’ll give them some flexibility to pursue that. Don’t know if they’ll spend at all if not. They managed to slap together okay production from Luplow/Naquin/Mercado last season. I wouldn’t bet on that group being good enough again but I sure as hell didn’t have them being good enough last season either.
If this roster was okay then they’d be in the World series right now
Indians do need more hitters.
Yankees looking to trade both Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar
if Andujar can play a reasonably competent 3B, he would be a good fit.
The problem with that is Andujar has not to date played a reasonably competent 3B and is coming off a serious arm injury. Frazier has an attitude problem and is also not competent in the field. Cleveland values defense and I doubt they would be interested in either player.
I wonder If Cashman is sorry that he did not trade these two guys to the Pirates for Cole two years ago..
Non-tender candidates: Salazar, Cole
…I would have to think Plawecki and Naquin might be on that list as well… certainly Plawecki. Maybe Goody even, depending on what he might get in arb.
I’d have to think they kick the tires on Clippard if they can affordably sign him, but Puig’s gone.
I would not be opposed to bringing in some vets like Howie Kendrick and/or former Indian Asdrubal Cabrera… super underrated players due to their age but they can still play. Sogard is a solid backup infielder as well.
Obviously you need to add a big bat or 3 – gotta look at the trade market. Should be open season on Kluber with all the depth we have at SP and more coming from the minors this year.
Naquin I would say definitely not. I was thinking Plawecki at that price is certainly not a guarantee to be tendered. They can get that kind of production for a hell of a lot less from an out of options waiver claim.
Naquin definitely will be tendered is what I mean here.
Plawecki is a non-tender candidate for sure (they could save about $1 million by replacing him with Eric Haase, for instance).
I’d add Cody Anderson to that list as well. He hasn’t been fully healthy in a few years, and outside of his rookie year (which was, a mirage anyway as far as advanced metrics are concerned), he really hasn’t been that good anyway.
Cutting Salazar, Cole, Plawecki, and Anderson loose could save them $8-9 million. That’s big for a team in their position.
Might the Angels be a fit? We have depth in the infield and a lack of pitching. La Stella, Fletcher at the MLB level, Rengifo just got his feet wet. Some possibilities on the farm in Jahmai Jones, Matt Thaiss, and Jeremiah Jackson.
Obviously not for Kluber, but maybe getting Clevinger back to Anaheim?
With those guys? You are not even in the ballpark for Mike Clevinger. That guy looks like an absolute ace. That’s more like the type of players it’d take to get Corey Kluber coming off an injury riddled season.
Cool. Was just throwing it out there. It’s hard watching Clevinger knowing we gave him up for 2 months of Vinnie Pestano. Oh, trader Trader Jerry screwed they pooch on that one.
Keep on dreaming.
Indians aren’t parting ways with Clevinger with the type of money he’s making.
Also the Angels have the third worst farm system according to the bleacher report.
The Angels don’t have the goods for a blockbuster trade.
If I am the Indians, I am valuing Clevinger more than Kluber right now.
Maybe Plutko for one of those guys and even that’s iffy, aside from Fletcher.
Clevinger isn’t going anywhere.
Cole, not Anderson, as a NT candidate??
Tough call on where to concentrate the spending the spending this winter. I think CLE should go all in on an OF, 2B, or 3B. There are more OF options of course, but NOT having Kipnis and his contract clogging 2B and payroll is definitely a step in the right direction.
Let’s remember it’s the AL Central. Minny’s got some smart folks, but is about to lose most of its starting rotation. Detroit and KC are on 5 year plans, to be renewed annually. White Sox? In a state of perpetual confusion; Hahn’s contract is up, so another Tatis for Shields deal is just around the corner.
The Indians have the pitching, both in the majors and in the pipeline. It’s hard not to see them back atop the division next year.
Tatis for Shields was horrible in hindsight.
The hope was for Coop to fix Shields’ ills.
At least Shields was very good at mentoring the young Chisox pitchers.
Tatis was developing nicely but had not yet broken out. Sox saw TA as their future at SS, and it’s beginning to look like they were right about that.
SD handed over a respected veteran pitcher and figure $20MM or so dollars for a hopeful 18-year-old in the minors. I don’t know many who call that good business.
SD got lucky, and those taking any credit are probably guys sitting in a van outside a convenient store working on a scratch off.
Kluber’s value is an intriguing discussion. Despite the lost Yr, he might have one All Star Caliber season left in the tank. I could see a team that has interest in acquiring him last offseason circling back at the reduced asking price.
Deep on Pitching & need an outfield bat. A few trade options worth considering are Mariners Mitch Haniger, Rockies David Dahl, Rays Tommy Pham. A few interesting FA options, but doubt Indians will add payroll & give up a draft pick for a Marcell Ozuna type.
Trading Lindor shouldn’t be considered until the 2020 Deadline. Is there a chance his value Plummets? Yes but unlikely. A Yr & a half of control on Lindor will be enough to return a huge haul in July.
Dealing from the pitching depth is the logical step. Need to add Bats and sort out the internal options. What to think of Jake Bauer & Franmil Reyes is the dilemma in Cleveland.
Yeah I m not sure anyone should give up a draft pick and 50+MM for Ozuna. Let alone Cleveland. I see another AJ pollock contract that is quickly regretted. But I’m sure someone gives it to him. He’s the right age but he’s been anything but consistent.
There honestly should be no reason the Indians trade Lindor. His trade value won’t diminish that significantly. He along the line of Betts has really no faults that crater his potential value. The problem with trading a superstar is you’re not going to really get back fair value especially in this day and age when young cost controlled players have become so valuable. You might get controllable years, and surplus value, but the ask for 2 years is/should be so prohibitive that it doesn’t make sense for the pursuing team. The division is up for grabs and if they find their way into the playoffs the rotation is still a great rotation. Their needs aren’t even really that difficult or expensive to find on the market. Most likely doesn’t even involve getting that creative. A COF/CIF generally is easy to grab even 2Bs this offseason, along with a back up C and some minor pen tweaks. A bit different situation than with Kluber, who they probably should have moved last offseason, but the Indians should at least be earnest in giving it one last run.
You’ve hit the nail on the head with the Lindor/Betts trade value conundrum.
There are fewer and fewer GMs who will make questionable trades from their end these days.
Jake Bauers is not very hood, Franmil Reyes is a DH.
No dilemma there.
More penny-pinching Olympics for the Indians. They might stand pat with their OF and go after a 3B or 2B with Jose Ramirez playing one of the positions. The SP with Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, Plesac and Carrasco isn’t bad if they opt to deal Kluber. They still have some other trade piece in the minors to grab a player in a trade this offseason.
Karinchak may be the bullpen arm to watch for in 2020.
Your B-R link for José Ranier goes to a pitcher with that name.
Jose Ramirez sorry autocorrect got me
The Indians 25 man roster payroll sits at around 102 million right now figuring in arb raises and Salazar being non-tendered.
Given that there is no play off money and attendance decreased 10% for the second season in a row despite a 93 win season,I see a max payroll in the 215-218 million dollar range.
So 13-16million to spend for 2020.
I don’t see Lindor being traded the Tribe would want Lux or Gleybar Torres back in any deal and I can’t see that happening.Of course no one thought they would get what they got for Bauer either.They reloaded quite of bit of young talent in that deal and in the previous off season so Lindor for just prospects doesn’t make much sense for a competitive team this year.
The trade market for second and third baseman isn’t great.
Camargo from ATL,Taylor or Hernandez from LA,Happ or Kemp from CHI,Villar from BAL,Shaw fromMIL are probably available and fit the Indians budget if they can be had at a reasonable cost.
The free agent market is also a bit thin,I see the Tribe waiting it out looking for a relative bargain there.
Moustakas at 2 years 20-25million with an option could work and makes a lot of sense.
Otherwise it’s the bounce back candidates and older vets like
Gennet,Dozier,Gyorko,Frazier,Castro and yes ,Kipnis.
A full time outfielder would be a good addition but it’s not the number one need and any one that would be an improvement over the players they already have would probably cost more than the Tribe is willing to pay in either talent or dollars.
The Tribe will again wait out the market and bargain shop here as well.
The pitching is deep but counting on a guy with leukemia to start every fifth day is a bit much,I think Carrasco could handle bull pen work/opener duty and see him ending up there so there may not be enough depth to trade from there.They are more likely to deal Kluber if he regains his pre-broken arm form,than any of their young guys aside from Plutko who’s out of options.
The Tribe really only has one glaring hole to fill,
The pitching looks to be solid top to bottom.
The Indians will go bargain hunting as usual,
This is a team coming off an injury riddled 93 win season,Not many teams win that many with their #1 and 2 starters gone for most of the season.They need to sort through the young talent they’ve acquired and pick up an infielder.They’ll be the favorite in the Central again.
The biggest need is either a second or third baseman. Also, I can see Carlos Carrasco returning to the starting rotation. He will certainly work hard to return there.
Good write up, themaven.
Thanks.
I would love to see Carrasco return to form as a starter,but I’m prepared for less. He’s got a serious illness no matter how good he looked coming out of the bullpen in September.
Yeah, I’d love to see them spend $215-218MM in payroll.
yeah I got a little excited,honest mistake.I got the amount they can spend right though
Where is Zach Plesac?
On vacation?
Could see Cleveland go either way. Either build on this team which won 93 games last season or begin the rebuild this offseason when most of the best trade chips have multiple years of control.
Tribe better go for it now.
Starting in 2021 the Chisox will be perennial winners of AL-C for the next 5 or 6 years.
I think Corey Dickerson is a perfect fit for the Indians.
At worst, he’s a righty-mashing platoon partner for Luplow in an outfield corner. At best, he’s a mediocre to average regular.
Dickerson was impressive with both the Pirates and the Phillies over the last two years.
He is much better than a platoon player.
If the Pirates ever get their act somewhat together,and end up trading Marte,I could see them want to sign Dickerson to say three years $30M.
I did some number crunching a few days ago (stuff like this is what I do with my free time) and assuming the Indians still decline their options on Kipnis/Otero and non-tender Salazar/Cole/Anderson/Plawecki (none of whom are locks to even make the roster), that leaves their payroll at about $19 million less than what they opened this season with. A slight decrease is probably in order coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs, so they’re realistically looking at about $15 million to spend this offseason.
Trading Kluber would move their payroll space to the $32-35 million range, minus whatever salary they would potentially take back in a deal. His value isn’t nearly as much as it was last offseason, but I think a top 60-100 prospect and another piece of good value is probably a good starting point.
I’d imagine they’ll look into trading Lindor this offseason, but the return would have to be so overwhelming that an acquiring team would hesitate to even make the deal from their perspective. For instance, a deal with the Dodgers would have to include Lux (along with more), and so forth.
Lindor is legitimately one of the 10 or so best players in the sport and is under control for 2 more years, so most of the proposals I’ve seen from fans of other teams on here just won’t cut it. There are a lot of teams that are risk-averse and hesitant to trade their top prospects, but the Indians won’t give up their best player and the face of their franchise (i.e. their biggest money maker) without an insane return.
Go get either Starlin Castro or Moustakas on a cheap short term deal. Then Corey Dickerson on a similar one.
Do not trade Lindor until after the window has slammed completely shut after 2020 season.
BOOM. Off season complete.
That’s actually the exact plan I’d have, although I imagine Moustakas would cost a fair bit more than Castro (but either could be fits). And in a comment above, I said that Dickerson is a perfect fit for them, so I agree there.
I’d be leaning towards giving this team one more chance to make a run, and trading Lindor next year if things don’t work out. But if someone makes a Godfather-type offer for Lindor, I think they might need to do some soul-searching and consider it.
If Dolan cut payroll because of no postseason income, maybe he should’ve re-signed Michael Brantley. The enormous hole in LF wouldn’t be there, and he probably gets them by the Twins. Voila- postseason income.
Outfield will be Luplow/Allen in LF, Mercado in CF, and…….Daniel Johnson in RF.
Indian fans would you think Kris Bryant for Mike Clevinger is a good trade? What about Bryant and Almora for Clevinger and Freeman?
I’ll give you freeman for a happy meal.
Make sure that is mike freeman that you are trading for a happy meal and not our #2 prospect Tyler Freeman.who I think he was asking for.
NO, I do not think that 2 years of Kris Bryant for 3 years of Mike Clevinger is a good trade. Since I didn’t like the first one, I definitely would not like the second one even if the Freeman in question is our utility infielder Mike Freeman rather then our highly rated prospect. Tyler Freeman.