For the second straight offseason, Yasmani Grandal is scheduled to reach free agency as the undisputed No. 1 catcher available. Grandal got to the open market last winter after a strong multiyear run with the Dodgers, but he’ll return there this offseason on the heels of a quality campaign with the Brewers, who look likely to lose him.
The fact that Grandal even ended up in Milwaukee in the first place came as a surprise. Expectations were he’d emerge from his previous trip to free agency with a long-term, high-paying contract, but that didn’t materialize. There was at least one opportunity for Grandal to score that type of pact, as he reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets weeks before settling for far less.
The small-market Brewers capitalized on Grandal’s decision to reject New York, not to mention a lack of offers he deemed suitable from other clubs, by reeling him in on a one-year, $18.25MM guaranteee in January. The switch-hitting Grandal paid the Brew Crew back with a .246/.380/.468 batting line, a career-high 28 home runs and 5.2 fWAR in 632 plate appearances during another playoff-bound season for the team. Grandal performed well behind the plate at the same time, thus continuing a long run as one of the most well-rounded backstops in baseball.
The Brewers could technically control Grandal for another season, as the two sides have a $16MM mutual option (or a $2.25MM buyout) for 2020. Exercising it should be a no-brainer for Milwaukee, but rejecting it ought to be an easy call for Grandal. He has now put up five straight elite seasons, after all, and no longer has to worry about a qualifying offer weighing him down. The Dodgers hit Grandal with a QO a year ago, and because a player can’t receive it more than once, he’s in line for an unfettered free-agent run this time around. Not only that, but the 31-year-old Grandal won’t face much competition on the open market. It’s obvious the next best unsigned catchers – Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos – aren’t in his stratosphere.
Adding everything up, Grandal may be in ideal position this offseason to secure the type of payday he desired last year. Do you expect the two-time All-Star to outdo the $60MM he reportedly turned down back then?
(Poll link for app users)
he’s not getting 20 a year and probably isnt getting more than 3 years.
Reds bound. They want to upgrade the offense. Catching offense was a major weakness last year. The ownership is increasing the payroll. Makes too much sense.
Unless someone blows others out of the water, why not stay in Milwaukee?
Grandal will be 31 next year. I can’t see him getting more than a 3 year deal in the $50-55 million range. Brewers are in play in that range. It’s true he’d be a great fit for the OBP starved White Sox, but I think they’d have to blow Milwaukee’s offer out of the water as Grandal seemed to enjoy playing in Milwaukee.
The key to the Brewers resigning Grandal is Ryan Braun. Yaz wants multi year. They can offer him 4 years, the 1st two at catcher. Then once Braun’s deal ends, Grandal can switch to 1st base. His BA seems to suffer as the wear and tear of the year at catcher takes its toll.
Meh, they still have to sign Yeli and Braun is playing LF anyways
Yeli is signed through 2022 as I recall. There;s talk of an extension but they ill make that work around any other contracts. Braun will likely see playing time at first next year with Thames, a lefty, and with Gresham in the OF.
White Sox will make a push for him. James McCann is a nice player, but they will be looking to improve OBP at every feasible position.
Fear you are correct, but if JDM opts out, that will be a bigger fish to pursue/allocate the serious $$ besides desperate need for pitching.
They can afford to make upgrades in numerous areas. Also, I take your point about the need for pitching, but they do have a lot of intriguing, if unproven, options for the rotation.
Giolito is solid, Kopech should be. Dane Dunning, Cease, Reynaldo and a returning Rodon give them a fair shot at 4 solid starters. I’m open to any avenues for upgrades.
Please no JD Martinez on the Southside. We can’t waste moves shoring up the DH slot when SP, RF & depth behind the plate are so important. With Grandahl, McCann & Collins we could be strong behind the plate and have one of the 3 backstops DHing on a regular basis.
Two words, Scott Boras
Don’t believe he is a Boras client.
JD? Yes
I don’t think the white Sox would be looking to plug up the DH because of Jimenez.
Jimenez won’t become a DH till Abreus days are over. Abreu eventually will become a DH and Andrew Vaugh will become 1B of the future.
Jimenez is a fine LF and will only get better, playing the DH game now is an insult to a soon to be 23 year old.
Jimenez is an awful LF. But they have to give him a chance to prove he can be below average before they move him.
To be a good LF you must get the ball to the cutoff man and mash. No problem.
You sound like a fool!
Calling Los Bravos
they dont need to throw money at an aging catcher. if its maybe a 2 yr deal at a reasonable cost, then ok. but just long enough to give jackson time to finish developing
“finish developing”
Do people not understand that prospects fail? He stinks.
4 for $68-72m
Not happening in my view. May get two years but not more.
Grandal MAY get two years? You’ve gotta be joking if you’re implying he’ll be lucky to get 2 years. He’ll get 3. At least.
How do buyouts work with mutual options? If the Brewers exercise their half and he turns it down shouldn’t he have to pay the $2+ mill buyout to them just like they would have to in the opposite scenario?
That’s not how the contract is written. No player would do that.
I figured as much. I don’t really understand why they do mutual options anyway. They almost never get exercised and even if they do the sides could have just come together and agreed on a new contract of equal value anyway. This is the first MuOp I’ve heard of that has a buyout in it so maybe Grandals side wanted it in there as insurance.
This is like 9 years old but mutual options haven’t really changed so… mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/are-mutual-options-base…
That’s hilarious to picture a player going to the bank to effect a wire transfer or get a certified check to send to the owner.
Braves fans will be subjected to another full season of Flowers again. At least McCann retired and I don’t have to watch his terrible bat anymore.
1/18 million with an option
3 years/$55M w/ an $18M vesting option based on PA’s or games played, etc. Seems like an easy price point issue. He won’t get $60M, but I think if he looked at things like a 4 year/$72M deal or so, he should be happy. Seems like the prototypical player to push for 4-5 years and $100M or something and has to settle for 1 year/$18M again if he doesn’t jump on something in the middle… like 3 years/$55M.
3/50 seems more realistic. That would bring his four year total to 4/68, making it worth declining a 4/60 last year. Perhaps options and incentives each year to push the total up.
I’m guessing 3/39.
If guys can’t get their 5 year/$100M deal but they can settle for 1 year/$18M and will get a 3-year deal out of that, which effectively converts that into the equivalent of a 4 year/$65-70M deal, why not just do that in the first place? Deals always start with lower pay and go higher, which seems to be the main issue.
So why not give guys big first year paydays and then adjust the AAV down for the rest of deals. So Grandal would’ve received 4 years/$65M last year and it would’ve been 2019: $20M 2020-22 $15M annually. I realize it’s because guys want their largest paydays toward the end of their careers for reasonable purposes, but what’s the difference if you invest the money carefully or just spend it more judiciously over their playing years…Because the peak earning year, the AAV and the Total Contract Value all have extremely different connotations for the player to agree to those perameters, depending on what they are.
Seems like we’re heading to a world where guys get less years and more money.
There’s been talk about how certain guys could get 1 year/$50M instead of 4-5 years/$120-160M.
I think that’s the future. Give guys contracts for what they did last year and strengthen the players’ rights when it comes to stuff like the Q.O. or an equivalent replacement system for that.
Meaning, players get paid fairly for their contributions and teams can’t really complain about being hogtied by albatross contracts, which seem to be written off by teams and the public when there’s only a year or two left, regardless of the details.
When did player’s salaries become a stat I’m supposed to care about? The Brewers paid him this much but he was really worth that much… How about, the taxpayers have paid $230 million in a regressive sales tax for Miller Park over the last 20 years while the team itself only kicked in $90 million to build it. There’s a bad name for the kind of government that does the bidding of business and corporations. I don’t want to hear kids quoting AAVs at the ballpark. Moneyball is killing the sport.
If you’re not from the Milwaukee area and aren’t part of the five counties effected you have nothing to say about the tax. The are directly south of the stadium is unrecognizable compared to 15 years ago with all the development that’s been completed. Plus the tax has cost taxpayers $11 a year. If $11 a year makes such an impact on your finances then you shouldn’t be a baseball message board.
Brewers drew over 2.9 million in the smallest market in baseball. “Killing the sport”? I hardly think that Miller Park was a bad investment for the community. There must be a dozen or so local restaurants that offer buses to the park. Think they’d do that if it wasn’t profitable?
How is “Moneyball” in any way related to ballpark financing?
Moneyball is an approach to evaluating players, by a front office, where they place a higher value on stats such as OBP and Slugging percentage, as opposed to traditional stats such as batting average and stolen bases.
Those kids quoting AAVs at the ballpark maybe are just developing an appreciation for a different part of the game. Who knows, maybe one or two of them will be a bright, young executive one day?
I’m not sure what the connection you’re making here is, unless this is just a list of things you currently hate about baseball?
I think you need to watch the movie again, and here’s a little hint:
The title isn’t “NewStatsBall”
Pay attention next time.
I haven’t seen the movie for a first time, so I mean… it’s hard to really say much about that.
I generally have gathered much of what I know of it by reading up on the internet about Beane, and his philosophies on it. I know the principles of moneyball are also applied in economics, but I’m not an economics major by any means. What I do know is how Beane applies it to baseball, and there’s about a thousand articles out there that’ll tell you one of his things was placing a higher value on OBP (a new stat?) than other’s had in the past.
What the movie says, I don’t know.
Oh, you should see it. You might like it.
I didn’t mean to come across as harsh or anything, I just thought referring to moneyball as in stat finding is the part of the moneyball which comes after the not having any money part, not before.
How about, the taxpayers have paid $230 million in a regressive sales tax for Miller Park over the last 20 years
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That statement, without context, means very little. How much sales tax & parking tax does the city get? Any payroll taxes for the employees? Do they host any other events at the stadium?
I don’t want to hear kids quoting AAVs at the ballpark.
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Why not? I applaud the kids if they know this. Part of building a team is getting the most bang for your buck. You probably do the same with your money.
Moneyball is killing the sport.
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Again, I don’t know why. Moneyball is like making a decision between renting or buying a house. And if you buy, do you want a fixer-upper or something new?
You just made no sense.
I think Grandal beats the 60 million mark, but not by much. I’m going to guess someone offers him a 3 yr deal for 48 million, with a club option for a 4th at something 16 million or less, bringing the overall deal potentially up to 64 million. That wouldn’t be a bad deal for a club, and Grandal could save some face by beating the Mets deal over the 4 year (’19-’22 seasons) span by 6 million.
He’ll get 4/70
Grandal is fantastic. Most players I believe are way overpaid in free agency (technically not because of market forces–I just mean I can’t believe how much money they get), but Grandal won’t be “overpaid” in my mind unless it exceeds $100M. Seriously. 4 years at $60M is likely to be quite a bargain for what he brings to the table. Any lineup and any pitching staff would be better with Grandal on their team.
If he didn’t get $60M/4 last year, coming off of a 3.3 bWAR, I don’t think he will get it this year, a year older, with only a 2.5 WAR.
A $65 for 4 for Grandal is not out of the question. He may not get it. But not out of the question. Angels could use Grandal along with a pitcher or three. If they go hard after Grandal they might have to say bye bye to Calhoun.
Rangers are another possible team for Grandal.
That would be age 31,32,33 and 34? Problem is then he’s coming off that contract with who’s gonna pay for his 35? There may be a special team out there who makes this match, but I’m not seeing who it is. No doubt he’s a good player. But how many early 30’s have been sitting around all off-season with no deal lately? If he’s going to take a bargain he might as well pick a team that makes the playoffs. 2 years or 1 year again is probably all he gets.
3 years/48 million
Brewers should offer him 4 years 70 mil he is totally worth it, he was one of the best 2 or 3 catchers in baseball this season.