The Red Sox just named a new chief baseball officer in Chaim Bloom, but he may already be facing the departure of one of the team’s best players. Designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez will have a chance to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, which could end Tuesday. Red Sox chairman Tom Werner recently met with Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, though owner John Henry said afterward the club’s still not sure whether JDM will exit his contract in the coming days.
On one hand, if Martinez goes back to free agency, it could give Boston the type of financial relief it’s seeking. The team’s seemingly hoping to get under the $208MM competitive-balance tax threshold for 2020, so erasing Martinez from its list of guarantees would be a boon in that regard. On the other, it’s hard to imagine a Red Sox team that just missed the playoffs improving without Martinez in the fold. The 32-year-old is only weeks removed from the end of another excellent offensive campaign, in which he slashed .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances. Martinez’s results this year weren’t as tremendous as they were from 2017-18 with the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, though he was still unquestionably one of the premier hitters in the game. Statcast backed that up, crediting Martinez with a .402 expected weighted on-base average that tied him with Aaron Judge for ninth in baseball.
It’s pretty clear Martinez can still hit at an elite level. Still, it’s not clear whether he should opt out. He’d be leaving a substantial amount of money on the table in doing so, which could be especially risky for a 30-something whom the Red Sox would saddle with a qualifying offer. There was no QO hanging over Martinez’s head when he signed with Boston for five years and $110MM entering 2018, as he was part of a midseason trade during the prior campaign. He wouldn’t be so fortunate this time, and with teams seemingly veering away from giving up draft-pick compensation for aging free agents, Martinez may be in for a disappointing trip to the open market. That’s particularly true when considering his lack of defensive value, which could largely limit Martinez’s market to American League franchises that could use him as a DH.
It’s obvious Martinez is no slam dunk to opt out, but whether he does will be one of baseball’s most interesting stories in the coming days. If Martinez does leave behind what’s left of his Red Sox deal, though, how well do you think he’d do on his next pact?
(Poll link for app users)
I think he opts out and finds 4 years for 80.
Potential landing spots in no particular order. White Sox, Angels, Padres, Rangers, Mets, Nationals, Braves, Diamondbacks
NO NL team would pay that kind of money for him as he CAN’T FIELD. That cuts your list down to the White Sox, Angels, and Rangers. The Rangers are not going to spend that kind of money for a DH. I don’t see the Angels paying that for a DH when they need to bag Cole. That leaves the ChiSox bidding against themselves. 4/$80MM? Not in a million years.
JD’s value with the bat is something you can be willing to hide in left feild. now, that decreases his value for NL teams, but if few AL teams are interested, they certainly can be in the running.
Sorry but no. Not gonna happen.
To give JD Martinez 80+ million bucks you have to look at him as a DH. No NL team is giving him that to play left field. Well I can’t say that for sure but I can’t imagine any team that winds up in the postseason has that in mind.
He’s only going to get older and slower in the outfield where he is already really bad. An NL team can’t risk that at this point. MAYBE if you had a guarantee of the DH coming in two years but even relying on him for 2 years would be a massive gamble.
It’s all about big bats and pitchers with big arms. Defense isn’t valued the same in today’s game.
They’re not getting Cole though.
Agreed.
I could reasonably see an NL team signing him. It’s tough to get a gauge on how bad his defense truly is. His one bad defensive year in Detroit was caused, in part, by injury. In Boston, what did they do? Run him out twice a month to play a corner? It’s a small sample size.
And by eye test alone, I would say he’s 10x the outfielder Nick Castellanos is.
And the same was said of Castellanos yet the Cubs made the move and from what we’ve read on this site, seem to have no problems with his defense as he played right field for them. This defense is/was no better than that of JD. Always somebody believes the bat outweighs the glove when evaluating a player who will put fans in the seats…nobody buys tickets to watch a great catch but will pay big time for seeing a homer!
Because the NL has no defensively-challenged outfielders, right?
That doesn’t mean CA won’t be hoarding their money all offseason trying. (And they have the money that few others do.) They won’t be waving it around for JDM. That’s for sure.
Nobody is going to offer him $80MM. NOBODY.
Defense has never been valued higher in the game than it is now. JD would be losing money, no team is paying him 80 Million.
The cubs didn’t give nick Castellanos 80 million dollars over 4 years as a 32 year old either. JDM has to be banking on that to opt out.
@jbigz12 Not really. If he gets his current contract but without the clause that turns the last 2 years into mutual options if he spends 60+ days on the IL due to a Lisfranc injury then opting out pays off. Remember that he gets a $2.5m buyout if he opts out.
Yeah. I didn’t know about the clause. Seems like a very important consideration for this vote to meet anything. Odd they didn’t mention. The 2.5 MM buyout is negligible. But the clause is the more serious consideration.
Maybe he can play 1B? I’ve wondered for a while why the Red Sox haven’t tried him there over the last couple years. If he can play 1B, he can go to the NL.
I’ve wondered about his ability to play 1b, too. It seems, if he planned on opting out, he would have pushed for playing time there in Boston. It’s not like they had any standouts there during his short time. If he could play 1b, it would double the teams interested in him.
Castellanos isn’t making $20 million a year.
It doesn’t matter if the Angels can’t ultimately land Cole as “thetruth” states. It doesn’t matter. Because of the Trout window, they will spend the winter trying to sign Cole while Boras seeks the highest bidder. The Angels are one of the few teams that have the need AND the resources to sign Cole. In that case, they will not be trying to sign JDM. They will not do it, especially since they have Pujols to DH. Thus, as my previous remark notes, there are no suitors for JDM. The NL is a non-starter and none of the teams Charles Stevens noted in the AL have the money or interest to best the deal JDM got two years ago from the Sox. Why would they? Has he gotten better? No. He’s gotten older, a little less godly, and less healthy. It’s dumb to think he’ll get a better deal. Just dumb.
Eliminate the NL teams. Eliminate the Angels, they have Ohtani and Pujols.
I think the Rangers already have in-house options. And the White Sox are not ready for a high priced DH for a year or two.
I don’t see it.
Ohtani as yet to play anything close to an entire season so don’t count out the Angels….remember they’re paying him dirt so no love lost if they would have to replace either his offense or pitching……The Rangers are moving into a new park and the White Sox might be looking to challenge in the Central with their blend of youth and offense…..
No love lost? He’s an asset you don’t just cast him aside because his pay is low. You take advantage of that using salary saved in other areas. Angels need pitching and if they sign a bat zero chance it’s JD unless they play him in the field which again is highly unlikely they already lack flexibility.
Angles are full up at DH
Is that Kurt’s family…..The Angles
Where to begin, the Angel’s have a DH and are not adding a 20+ M hitter when they need pitching. The Met’s don’t have the salary room. The Braves, Rangers and D’backs have other priorities, like pitching. The Padres need a front end starter and the Nationals who knows. They could need a 3rd and 1st baseman and maybe even a starter and 2nd baseman. Who knows at this point?
angels have no place for him.
With my Padres having a shitty offense, I’d take a shot
Angels are out. Where are they going to put Pujols and Ohtani ? They are already flush with DH’s
It’s time to cut ties with Pujols, no matter how much is left on his contract.
That’s a nice list!!! As a Braves fan, I think They’ll be out on JD. AA LOVES short term deals & old dudes that can hit so that is good thinking on your part.
Even if he was the right guy 4 the Braves, I think they’d be too cheap.
The Braves need Pitching. They want to resign Donaldson. They even might have to address catching.
They have 2-3 Good Prospects that can play in the OF. Plus they have a cheap Option Year on Markakis (which they might be too dumb to use). I dont think There are any serious takers on Ender Inciarte so I expect him to be back too.
JD Martinez isn’t a Good Fielder. The NL doesnt have a DH. Plus Freddie Freeman is our 1st Baseman so we cant move him there.
The Braves have too many needs & departing players to be in on JD.
They LOVE JOSH DONALDSON!!! They wouldn’t spend 20+M on JD Martinez if they can resign Donaldson.
I think Rendon will cost 30-34m. So Donaldson will be in the 26-30m Range. Even if he isnt, the Braves GM (AA) LOVES Him so much he might push the numbers that high just to get him.
I think the Nationals have their hands full trying to resign Rendon & Strasburg. They also need Bullpen help. They might win a World Series with what they have this year. That doesnt guarantee they will make the Playoffs next year tho so they need to at least try getting a better pen. Plus Scherzer’s deal ends next year so I don’t see them wanting JD for 3 years.
However, I can see it happening.
I think the market is thin on him. He is best staying in Boston on those option years.
There’s a VERY small market for his services. He’d be lucky to get what the Sox are paying him.
We’ll see…..if he stays the Sox might have to part with Mookie Betts….the Sox are probably praying he’ll opt out!
The Sox ARE praying he’ll opt out. He’s too smart to think he can get more in this market, especially with a draft pick hanging around his neck.
If he doesn’t opt out the Sox can still trade him. They might have to eat some money and won’t get back anything decent but they can do it.
Very true. It would come down to 1) who’s on the other side of the trade and 2) how much the Sox are willing to eat. I see it as a long shot but much more likely than JDM opting out and getting a better deal than he has now. In fact, I don’t see him opting out at all, but I see a chance that he might be arrogant and stupid enough to step off that cliff. Like Keuchel and Kimbrel. After 2018 he MIGHT have got a better deal if he could’ve opted out and then did so. After ’19, no. Just no. It would be stupid money to buy him at this age with his health issues and limited as a DH. Stupid money. And not in this market with so few teams even considering such a player.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if he opted out with an agreement to resign for an extra year or two but at a lower AAV? Say like 5 years for $75-$80M.
He’s opting out for more. Would any of us leave 10M more on table.
But he won’t get more. Two years older and with deeper health issues, he’s not worth more. It took forever for him to get that deal from the Sox, and that was when he was a god. He’s less godly, less healthy, and older now and confined to being a DH. It’s DUMB to think he will get more.
Unless Boras has a handshake agreement in place or JDM wants to leave, he should be staying. I just don’t see the obvious team, the CWS automatically ponying up the money. I love JDM and believe he can be serviceable but in left in Fenway understanding his bat will deliver much more than his glove takes away. My real concern in doing that is him staying healthy. He stays and the team gets some of what they need by doing the unthinkable and trade Mookie for young, ready pitching making minimum salaries.
They can trade JDM if he doesn’t opt out. They will have to eat some money and won’t get anything decent back, but they can trade him.
The Sox in my view should not dump a top ten bat or do the need to. The Mookie situation could get ugly. He has every right to test the market but if Boston does not want to pay Harper/Machado type numbers, he is the one the team trades. Return should be peanuts with respect to payroll. I don’t see JDM suddenly losing his bat speed or eye and would prefer his contact at present money for 2021. Losing both will have to be replaced although if he continues to thump, Devers will get a good chunk then and more in subsequent years. Regardless, the team needs to pray that the starters deliver.
The issue isn’t Mookie getting Machado/Harper money. If he would accept such a contract extension, it would already be signed, I believe. The issue is Mookie is looking for Mike Trout money.
Castellanos is younger and isn’t going to get 15 million so maybe one of the dumbest predictions. You don’t opt out of 65 million on the hope you can get 15 million more. He can stay & in his FA year at age 35, he can still get 10 million so don’t risk 65 million for a 5 million raise. He stays for sure no question about it.
Nearly 20% say $80MM or MORE??? SMH. Who is reading this site???
Dunces, dullards and dumbbells
Armchair GM’s all!
Exactly what 90% of the people on this site are. Including you. I think he will stay but I could see the 4/84. The guy shows he can hit. That’s my arm chair moment. Get serious about who you are…a fan.
Well it’s not THAT unreasonable to see him getting 4/84 or something in that respect. He is 39% better then the average MLB hitter. He’s 2 years younger then EE when he hit FA and he’s a better hitter now then EE was then and he got 3/60 w/ a 20ml 4th year option w/ a 5mil buyout, making it 3/65 guarantee or up to 4/80.
That said I can’t see many suitors in the AL and it would be a tremendous leap for an NL team to think he can fake a position.
I think 4/$80, through his age 36 season. Look at Cruz and EE, JDM is better than both and is a primarily DH, just like those guys. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but there’s a limited market.
Someone has to pay the money though. JD May very well be worth that kind of cash in the end but a team has to be willing to roll the dice on that. The potential market just doesn’t look big enough for that to happen. It obviously only takes 1 team to bid on him. As we’ve seen w the Hosmer and Davis deals most recently. But he has to give away 62.5MM to roll that dice. I can’t imagine he does.
Alternatively, look at Jose Bautista and how the Blue Jays avoided disaster there.
Cruz can’t be used for comparison because he used PED and changed his aging vector.
JDM should stay in Boston and I like them giving him a reworked deal with more years and a lower average annual. Maybe 6/85.
You argued yourself into a corner. It’s not that unreasonable but there’s no market… Sheesh! Then it’s unreasonable!
No I didn’t “agree myself into a corner” I stated both sides of an argument. Could he get 4/80ish? Sure cause he’s worth it, is there enough suitors to get him to his value? idk because no MLB teams have contacted me to let me know.
I do know that 2 years ago when he was a free agent and with 1 known serious suitor (the redsox) he still got a 5 year 115mil contract with 2 opt outs.
*argued
TWO YEARS AGO. There’s the rub. He had a significantly less than godlike year in ’19 AND he’s two years older AND he’s demonstrating more and more health issues. Ergo ipso facto, he’s not getting a better deal than he already has, the one he had to wait forever for and just barely got when he WAS a god.
I just hope the Ownership isn’t deliberately stonewalling JD so he leaves, n the team suffers for the fans. I don’t trust the ownership, unless they fess up n tell the fans they’re rebuilding, n trade a Mookie for prospects, which they should do anyways.
It’s his choice. Ownership has nothing to do with it.
probably just about 60 million
And that’s only if he actually opts out. My guess is that in the end he’ll be too smart to opt out.
id assume so as well. this market is too turbulent for such a thing. big reason why id be skeptical of Chapman and Stras doing it as well. though both are more likely
The high end SP market is hot though, so many teams have a need there
Chapman would have to have be the most risk averse man alive to not opt out of a 2/30. Probability of him not doing so has to be extremely low.
Yes, hence the lack of interest and money for JDM.
I just do not see a big market for his services and it will take more than one or two teams bidding to drive his annual and years beyond what he’s getting now especially with a draft choice attached.
Boras has an inflated opinion about his clients, esp JD. I’m sure Boras has looked into the market(we know they do it illegally)n will know if he opts out.
For the right team, an expensive full time DH has value. They have to be high payroll teams, who think they can contend, and a team that doesn’t currently have a DH.
That leaves the Red Sox and … The Red Sox.
I don’t see a landing spot. Once you limit the teams to high payroll, contending and no current DH, The field narrows to practically none.
Bingo.
Doubt he will even receive $60 million. Perhaps a two to three year contract for between $30-40 million. Teams have become more cautious about giving long term contracts to aging stars. Many of those players were valuable in the short terms, then quickly declined, but were still unable to be moved, with the exception of teams whose owners were willing to take on most of the money. The determining factor will be to wait and see what happens with Gerrit Cole. He will set the next free agency market.
I didn’t vote because i don’t think he opts out.
The risk/reward for him opting out just makes no sense. Unless the man absolutely hates Boston he needs to stay in his contract. I can’t imagine how you’d risk the 62.5 million owed. Next year would be the year I’d look to opt out if I were JD. At that point it’s a 2/39.5 and I think that’s beatable if he’s able to produce another JDM-Esque year.
This is why the NL needs a DH do you prefer JD hitting or a pitcher striking out
Every team automatically has an MVP candidate at DH if the NL implements it?
JD would still be hitting even if there were no DH in either league
And pitchers wouldn’t be “hitting” if there was a DH in both leagues…
You must be fun at parties
No but every team would have a hitter at DH if the NL implements it? Which 95% of NL teams do not have on any given day now as it is, without the DH.
Martinez will lose money if he opts out of his current contract. I don’t see another team giving him the same as Boston.
He would be crazy to opt out. He has the QO attached, he is 32, he can’t play the OF and any team that signs him won’t have the chance at playoff ball that the 2020 Red Sox will have. I think he should stay. Even though it would help out the Sox finances if he did leave.
The Qualifying Offer might kill him. I think he could get and should take a 3 year deal for around 60 million with another opt out after year 1. Assuming that he performs, this gives him the best chance to maximize his earnings as he might get 2/50 next year with no QO and more demand.
I think you’re onto something. If he gets the same deal he has remaining with the option to opt out again after year one it would be a win for him.
Guys. He can opt out of his Red Sox contract next season. He also banks 23.75 MM in that contract with how it’s structured. That would not make any sense for him to do. I can’t imagine he gets a contract with more downside protection and upside value. He has a slightly better deal than the one you just proposed already.
Honest question: If the Sox really want him to opt out in order to get under the threshold, why wouldn’t they decline to make a QO? I know they lose him , but it makes it more likely that someone else signs him, they get out of the contract, and they have more cash to resign Mookie.
If the RS slap him with a QO and he rejects it the Sox don’t have to sign him, even for the QO amount. They have no further obligation. JDM, in that case, has to take an offer from the market. If the market doesn’t offer him a deal better than the one he had with the RS, (which I don’t think it would; his value is not greater today than it was two years ago, when only the Sox would pney up for that kind of money) he will be forced to take a lesser deal, as both Kimbrel and Keuchel did last year. In that scenario, the Sox could come back and offer him a deal lower than the QO and maybe he would have to take it if it were the best out there.
I do not think he will opt out
If JD opts out, he’s only helping the Red Sox. I bet he opts out and discovers it was a mistake. He was such a blowhard two years ago in free agency. Meanwhile, minor leaguers starve.
“Meanwhile, minor leaguers starve.”
Sounds like something that’s not his problem… He was once one of those “starving” minor leaguers, and he busted his butt to get to where he is today. He has every right to want to be rewarded for it.
I’d lean to guess that he’s not going to opt out considering how cold free agency has been and he had to wait so long for the Red Sox to sign him in the first place.
That said, if the Red Sox are smarter with their newfound payroll flexibility (no Porcello, Sandoval and other contracts that came off the payroll) they should be able to compete if they sign Howie Kendrick (my preference) or Eric Sogard on the cheap to fill in at 2nd base, sign Josh Lindblom to be the fifth starter, add some cheap relievers from Japan like Pierce Johnson, Rafael Dolis, Frank Herrmann and some others, and try to sign Rick Vandenhurk to a minor league deal with a spring training invite since he’s done well in the NPB when healthy.
Assuming 1 WAR is worth 8.25m and assuming his WAR will decline by 0.4/year for the remainder of his contract, the remaining money on his contract is pretty much fair. Almost all the players who have opted out were clearly worth more than the money they left on the table.
But you also have to factor the value of that draft pick into a potential new contract for JDM. Also as AtlSoxFan astutely pointed out, his team can void his current contract if he sustains a very specific injury, which decreases the real value of that contract to some extent.
One WAR is actually worth much less than $8M.
What is it worth for the best player in the game today,$4M?
As a pale hose fan, I don’t want him. I think his bat would be nice, but if we intend to resign Abreu then we have our future DH. I would rather go after Castellanos if we decide to go for a bat first fielder. Plus there is no way Jerry pays him more then his current contract.
The thing is that he’s not really gambling $62.5M because he’s a terrific hitter and he will get paid a decent amount of money. I’d be really surprised if someone wouldn’t be willing to give him three years, and I’d be really surprised if he couldn’t get $15-20M per year. Of course, that’s not what he’s making now, but there’s going to be a floor someplace. It’s the differential between the floor and $62.5 traded off against the maximum he could possibly get. What’s his max? Well almost half of us think he will do $70M or better. If I were Boras, I might not want to bet, say, $15M to get another $15/20, but then again I’m not Boras.
He’s due to make $23.5 MM THIS YEAR with the Sox. $15-$20MM is NOT a raise!
I get that. I was only pointing out that he’s not betting $62.5 Million, he’s betting the difference between that and what a reasonable estimate of his floor might be. What do you think his floor might be?
He’s in a strange spot because he’s already paid just about exactly what he’s worth. If he opts-out, he’d be betting that he can get a 4th year guaranteed somewhere. I think it’s mite likely that he opts-out after 2020 when the AAV on his deal drops.
That’s a good point, although at time he’d be a year older, a year less able to play the field. The reason to opt-out now would be to increase the total guarantee (more likely with a 4th year and a slightly lower AAV).
I think his current contract is the floor
@Bernie – JDs deal doesn’t drop much after 2020.
If he opts out he carries away 2.5m from the sox. So, if he signs with another team for 21.25m in 2020 JD pulls down the same money as staying in Boston.
So we’re are 21.25 in ’20, then 19 in each of ’21 and ’22.
If jd waits another year it would be from perceived market weakness, but not because the salary is that much better
Michael Birks: he’s NOT worth more today than he was two years ago, He’s older, has greater health issues and is less godlike. And it took him forever to get that deal from the Sox. No, his current deal is not the floor. It’s the ceiling.
He would be wise to stay. Not the kind of player to do better than what he has in this market.
LA Dodgers can NEVER be ruled out for any home run hitter. Kike Hernandez, Corey Seager, AJ Pollack, Joc Pederson would all fit well in Beantown rebuild
Sox do not need Seager. For starters.
Say what you want about his defensive value. JD’s bat can transform an offense.
Name a team who actually needs him and can pay for him at greater than $21MM per year?
If he opts out he’s a fool. There’s one team that pays money like they already do for his limited skill set and he has that gig.
Yankees could use him…you know..
just in case the other 4 DH’s they have get hurt!
As a Yankees fan I hope JDM gets $5.1M AAV raise and 2 years tacked on. 5 years/$130M seems like a great investment for the Red Sox in a 33 y/o inevitable full time DH….
He’s making $20.833M AAV over 3 years. He’s maybe worth $25M AAV. I don’t think anybody gives him an extra $4.167M a season over 3 years because he walked over a $12.5M difference and if he does get paid what he’s worth I guarantee his actual on field value craters somehow…
That said I’m thinking 7 years/$193M to extend Judge w/ a $10M buyout on a $32M Option. I wish I was joking. That’s what it is nowadays….
If JDM does not opt out Boston can still opt to go over the $208 MM luxury tax threshold in 2020 even though ownership expressed a desire not to do so.
If JDM leaves it probably brings Boston down to about $200 MM plus or minus.
That would leave some room to add some pitching either RP or SP.
2020 will be a tight year financially, if Boston holds fast to it’s goal of getting below $208 MM.
I suspect ownership will decide to go over the $208 MM limit if the only alternative is to give up on the 2020 season.
Since RS ownership forfeited the season by not bolstering the BP going into ’19, I’m inclined to think they are serious about getting under $208MM no matter what. I think they’re going to bank the ’18 WS for a couple/few years and pocket the cash (and goodwill) of the fans.
Wondering if they have any way of clearing Pedroia’s or Castillo’s contracts off of the books?
That’s probably one of the reasons why they have Chain Bloom in place to figure “creative” ways of cutting payroll costs on paper that can give them luxury tax room to add more payroll.
Castillo doesn’t count
Nathan Eovaldi and JBJ for Manuel Margot and Wil please take my shi…ttty deal Myers. Cuts 14 million bucks in luxury tax payroll.
I’d do it. Margot gets to come back home, and maybe somebody can get Myers’ head together. And nobody wants to see Sam Travis at 1B next year. Would miss JBJ, but the glove is only worth so much. Eovaldi? The spirit is willing, the body isn’t.
JD opting out? Nah, can’t see it.
Also, from the results of the above poll 5,000 plus votes it shows a great deal of uncertainty as to what JDM can actually get if he opts for free agency.
It will be up to JDM if he wants to throw away $62 MM in the hopes of getting more.
It’s possible he could even get less than $62 MM.
Just ask Mike Moustakas.
He can always be traded if he doesn’t opt out although that may not be an easy trade for Boston.
We’ll see. It’s too close to call.
Martinez is owed $63.25 million over the next 3 years.with a $2.5 million buyout if he opts out in 2019.
A great outcome for both Martinez and the Red Sox would be for them to resign him to a 5 years/$93.25 million deal with the last 3 being options if he has another foot injury (Lisfranc fracture) lowers the AAV for the Red Sox and tacks $30 million to the guaranteed money Martinez can receive if his feet stay healthy.
His OPS was 140 this season. Assuming he declines like others his age have in the past, between 5-7% per year, for the next 5 seasons, he is still an above average hitter in the last year of the contract.
No, I wouldn’t do that deal.
JDM will be 35 when the current contract expires, assuming he doesn’t opt out.
He doesn’t field in as high a % of games as is required to command big bucks.
If he doesn’t opt out the end of this season he almost surely will at the end of next season so no point in keeping him.
Mookie will be too expensive after 2020 so he is also likely gone after 2020 but they should try to retain him.
So the Red Sox can offer QO’s to both JDM and Mookie after 2020 and get a draft pick.
I also don’t think they keep JBJ and non tender him as I can’t see paying JBJ $11 MM just to field.
After those issues pass then the Red Sox will have a much lower payroll and will be in a position to add talent at the trade deadline, which they can release after season end, should they be in contention.
They should also have some new talent added within the organization by then.
If Tampa can play better than Boston for 25% of the payroll in 2019 then it’s a no brainer that with Chaim Bloom they should win more games by spending $208 MM in 2020 than what they won in 2019.
And if 2020 is a transition year than so be it. The point is that they eventually will draft and develop young inexpensive talent and continue to be in contention for years and years to come.
It’s not a no-brainer that Bloom will revolutionize the RS play on the field while cutting the payroll nearly $40MM in 2020, especially when they includes cutting JDM and/or Mookie from the mix. It’s going to take Bloom time to have any kind of significant impact, not least because he will be working with a team of 4 heavy hitters who have their own ideas and agendas. Also, it’s not entirely clear how much Bloom was responsible for Tampa Bay squeezing out so much out of so little. Who could have foreseen D’Arnaud’s renaissance? That was a complete fluke.
Now do you finally see why opt outs are terrible for teams? If JDM is worth $93.25m as you say then losing him for $62.5m would be a disaster for Boston.
Only 1 person is even saying JDM is worth $93.25 MM
LOL
The way to judge opt outs is to see how teams got hurt by them. It isn’t a lot. CC & Kershaw got one year tacked on. CC was surely worth it, and Kershaw will be about ‘okay’ for that price. Greinke did well. Upton got one year, but Detroit had already dumped him.
Even now, with the JDM signing turning out as good as gold, his opt out is still not automatic.
Greinke opting out was a disaster for LAD.
JD gets a bad rap for his defense, but he isn’t worse than a lot of outfielders, but not many outfielders can hit like he does. That being said, only way he opts out is with a 20 million dollar buyout from Henry.
Why would he need a $20 MM buyout from Henry if he is so good and can make so much more in the free market?
Why wouldn’t JDM just opt out now?
You can’t just use stats to judge JD in the fielding department. The guy has the range of your average rock, he gets as far as you can literally throw him.
Is the more valuable fielder a guy who ranges 50 feet and misses 5% of the balls when he gets there, or a guy who might barely move 5 feet but catches 99% of what he can find hit way?
That’s a lot of balls that drop in if you pick the latter.
I exaggerate the distances or percentages, but hopefully you see the point. If JD didn’t have the hit tool he’d be out of baseball, his glove has nearly no value aside from being attached to a living body that can be written on a lineup card.
Just keep in mind that Boston paid more money in payroll than every other team in the MLB in 2019.
Every team that made the playoffs in 2019 paid “less” than Boston to get there.
If that doesn’t make you realize what they did in Boston in 2019 didn’t work then what will?
Why would anyone want to pay good money to watch a team that loses and especially a team that has the highest payroll in baseball?
Time to wake up and smell the coffee.
Flags fly forever
Or is it about the players we’re in love with and who cares about winning?
Funny but the stands were empty in Tampa and the stands full in Boston?
Even thought Tampa played way better than Boston for 25% of the payroll in 2019?
NO EXCUSE FOR LOSING LIKE THAT !!!!!!!!!!!
The current Boston players and coaches should be ashamed.
The only way Boston can win is if the fans demand winning and not accept losing by not going to games.
John Henry, to his credit, realizes this and has made a change.
Now it’s not an excuse, but, there was a lot of money paid to guys who aren’t around anymore contributing to the on-field product.
Likewise, comparing to say a TB doesn’t really work BECAUSE of the fan base and media market.
Let’s be honest, the TB model relies in selling off its assets and stars high, and near peak, hoping to hit on the return. Due to volume it evens out, but sometimes they win, sometimes they dont.
But could you imagine what the media and fan base would do if you sold a bogey/mookie/papi/pick your name and 2 years later wound up with NOTHING to show for it?
How good was their attendance the three years they finished last in this last decade or so? My guess is that it was fine. It’s a small ballpark. My guess is they fill it win or lose. Which doesn’t give ownership much of an incentive to spend big bucks to win. My guess is they’ll bank the ’18 WS, look to shed payroll, see what Bloom can do to get something from nothing (the Tampa Bay model the success of which everyone seems to assume he was responsible for), hope to get another WS in 3-4 years, wash, rinse, repeat…
3 years is enough for this guy. The current Sox contract seems right. On the open market he gets max for 4 for 80. I’m thinking he waits a long time for 4 for 70.
How long can he wait? Doesn’t he have to make a decision five days after the World Series ends?
Yes but if he opts in those five days he can wait all winter for 4 for 70. I don’t see how he gets more money two years later, when he’s older, his health issues are more pronounced, and few teams with the money to pay need a DH, but he can wait all winter, as he did for the deal from the Sox two years ago. That was the best deal on the market two years ago. And he expects more today? Puh-lease.
I wouldn’t opt out with this guy. I think he’s being paid exactly what he’s worth. Only way I’d consider is if I get a longer term contract where the entire value of that contract ends up being a good bit more than he’s making albeit could still be less per year. When you’re making this kind of money, you can afford to make a little less today to secure money over a longer period of time
Being a redsox fan I have seen the impact he has on this teams lineup. They needed him badly. I think the young guys learned from him. That’s not saying that every team is the same and that he would have the same type of impact but he is an excellent hitter. He puts so much time into preparing for hitting. Too bad he didn’t spend a little more time learning how to field. Can’t even stick him at first. He butchered the outfield this past year
The Sox and JD will agree to a mutual agreement. The Sox guarantee the balance of his 3 years paying him $23.5 M per with a 4 th year Mutual understanding of ? if he meets performance marks during the 3 years.
JD, Boras and the Sox avoid unnecessary bickering and everyone wins.
This offer ends at the end of the 5 day end to the World Series. Boras knows whether he can produce more than a $70 M. deal guaranteed. with a doable option.
JD’s contract is already guaranteed.
Sort of. To oversimplify there’s what I consider a divesting option if he misses 60 days on the IL due to foot injury related to past concerns so on so forth.
Option also triggers with 10 days IL time and total of 120 days over the year plus the year before.
The option converts the guaranteed year of the contract to a mutual option, meaning the Sox can effectively void the rest of the deal.
JDM’s contract is already guaranteed
The standard recently set in Paul Goldschmidt 5/130MM. That’s going to be the starting point except that he only has 1/2 of MLB interested in him. Someone will jump in at the 4/110MM mark and I’d guess either the Angels because they want to make a splash and Trout can cheat and cover the LF gap or the CWS and they sign Abreu also.
So you think he’s worth more today than he was two years, when he was younger, healthier, godlier…? And the deal he got from the Sox was the best on the market, and he got it last minute. And today there’s a smaller market of teams with the need and the bucks to do it.
Goldschmidt is not comparable at all. Goldschmidt can play the field: JD cannot. Teams are wising up to paying aging sluggers who are only going to regress over a 3-4 year term. I would suggest a better comparable is Edwin Encarnacion (when he left Toronto). Three x $20 is about what JD could get and he already has that. He’d be crazy to opt out.
Thank you. There is hope among MLBTR readers.
I’ve not read all the comments so this may have been discussed, but If Red Sox are really seeking salary relief to keep Betts next year, agree with Boras to not present Qualifying offer to JD if Martinez would agree to opt out. That would eliminate a major hurdle to his getting a better contract. As it is today, he should not opt out
And violate the CBA in the process.
Both sides have too much to lose to do that, and, not issuing a QO would raise waaay too many red flags for the sox to consider doing
Ugh, this is tough
Martinez is coming off a season where he hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HR for a 139 wRC+ over 146 games. Over the past 3 season : 415 Games, 124 HR, 158 wRC+, 12.9 WAR. He is 32 years old.
Let’s look for some comps using 3 years prior to their contract.
Low End Comps:
Nelson Cruz(38)- 1/$15M(2020 $12M team option)
2016-2018: 454 Games, 119 HR, 143 wRC+, 10.7 WAR
Khris Davis(31)-2/$34M(extension)
2016-2018: 454 Games, 133 HR, 129 wRC+, 7.6 WAR
High End Comps(these are hard because lack of DHs):
Shin-Soo Choo(32)-7/$130M
2011-2013: 394 Games, 45 HR, 133 wRC+, 11.2 WAR
Paul Goldschmidt(31)- 5/$130M
2016-2018: 471 Games, 93 HR, 140 wRC+,15.4 WAR
The “Please God No”/Never Again comp
Chris Davis(30)- 7/$161M
2013-2015: 447 Games, 126 HR, 140 wRC+, 13.4 WAR.
The Eerily Similar Comp
Edwin Encarnacion(33): 3/$60M(2020 $20M team option)
2014-2016: 434 Games, 115 HR, 145 wRC+, 12.2 WAR
Carlos Santana(31)- 3/$60M(2021 $18M club option)
2015-2017: 466 Games, 76 HR, 117 wRC+, 8.3 WAR
If I’m Martinez, I am looking at EE and Santana’s deals and figuring if they were worth 3/$60M a few years ago, then I am worth substantially more because I’ve been better than they were/inflation.
Boras will be shooting for a Goldy deal. Both exploded from nowhere to stardom. Martinez has batter bat, but Goldy is a tad younger, a better athlete(he had 32 SB just 3 seasons ago), and is solid at 1B. I’m also scared as hell looking at the Cruz/Davis deals(quite a dichotomy in results).
As for the market….I find it concerning that the Red Sox never even attempted to play Martinez at 1B despite a desperate need at the position.
Maybe the White Sox or Blue Jays want to start to put the pieces together/want a “hitting savant” to guide their young bats. The D-Backs or Brewers aren’t the worst fit(especially if he can play 1B).
I’m guessing he works out a deal with the Red Sox. Maybe 4/$75M with a vesting option for a 5th year?
“I’m guessing he works out a deal with the Red Sox. Maybe 4/$75M with a vesting option for a 5th year?”
The Sox are trying to shed nearly $40MM in payroll. Why would they double down on JDM NOW?
Plus almost none of your comps but Encarnacion are actually comp. And Encarnacion is at $20MM. And using a three year view to value JDM doesn’t make sense. Are his 32-34 years worth as much as his 29-31 years? In advance anyone would have to say no. He is not worth what he was two years ago, plain and simple. He was younger, healthier and more godly. Moreover, he has a smaller market of teams needing his DH skills and having the money to acquire them. He’d be a fool to opt out.
2years/$60M is his ceiling
That’s way over his ceiling. He’s at $21MM/year now. He got that two years ago when he was younger, healthier and more godly. And waited until the very last minute to get it. And the market of teams with the need and the means is smaller and more tight-fisted. If he’s dumb enough to opt out, especially with a draft pick hung around his neck, he’ll be lucky to replicate his existing deal.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the NL went to the DH under the next CBA. Some aggressive NL team(Phillies?) might be willing to roll the dice.
Remember when a very erratic/streaky Phil Hughes was signed to 3 years/$24M and was given a raise to 5 years/$58M after one pretty good season? And then remember how he immediately cratered and faded into an albatross getting passed around on benches until the contract expired? I don’t think a J.D. Martinez super extension would be that bad, but it’d be very close.
Only way I’d see him opting out is if Red Sox would prefer the salary relief and agreed not to offer qualifying offer.
I read above that that would violate the CBA.
Would be interesting to see how that one would go. I mean the commissioner’s office can’t exactly force a team to QO a player but a QO for JDM if he does opt out should be pretty much automatic so if he opts out and they don’t QO him it would be blatantly obvious that they had some sort of unwritten agreement.
I don’t see how that would violate the CBA. It wouldn’t give the team any sort of unfair advantage.
Because no-QO agreements are expressly forbidden by the CBA. Even if it’s unwritten it’ll be blatantly obvious what happened if he opts out and they don’t QO him.
Seems to me to be rather ridiculous to have a QO with an option contract like this one.
He is supposed to sign the QO for less than his contract portion cost?
Was Homer Simpson involved in writing the rules?
Obviously he won’t accept the QO. That’s why it’s an easy decision to extend it. That and the fact that Boston would gladly take him back on a 1-year deal.
I guess my question is that are we absolutely sure that they can even give him a QO since it would affect his value?
Why wouldn’t they be able to QO him?
Because this is a player option contract only .The QO language I presume was written around a standard free agent.It protects both the team’s rights and the players.This way would only protect the team’s and hurt the player’s.
The team may not have any rights in this case since it is a player only option contract.
The CBA says a team may QO any of their pending free agents unless some other rule prevents them from being QO’d, such as being traded midseason or already having received one. It does not say anything about a player who opted out vs having his contract expire being unable to receive one. Zack Greinke received a QO 4 years ago when he opted out of his contract.
People talk about things being expressly forbidden in the CBA, and when I go looking for them I can’t find them.
It is.
Interesting possible option, on the non QO by the Red Sox on JDM, and even more interesting possible outcomes per the Union and the League.
May need a lawyer to weight in. LOL
Lets just chill out and let it play out and see what happens.
It’s the game “in between seasons”
That’s why these high paid front office guys get paid “big bucks”.
The Red Sox will 100% QO JD if he opts out.
The union would have no recourse against them. This isn’t even a gray area.