Red Sox chairman Tom Werner met recently with agent Scott Boras regarding the contractual status of slugger J.D. Martinez, as Christopher Smith of MassLive.com was among those to report, but there’s still no clarity as to whether Martinez will remain with the Boston organization for 2020 and beyond. Martinez can opt out of the three years and $62.5MM left on his contract, with a decision due five days after the conclusion of the World Series.
That’s one of several opt-out calls that Boras will be making with his clients. There have been some indications over recent months that Martinez is at least pondering a return to the open market. When we polled MLBTR readers late in the season, it came down as a fairly close call, with just under 57% of respondents expecting Martinez to stay in Boston.
Martinez’s representative did not give the Red Sox a clear impression as to his current thinking, per owner John Henry. Neither did the team express any interest in hammering out a new deal that would override the in-or-out decision available to the veteran outfielder/DH. Given the club’s decision to pare back payroll, that’s not at all surprising. It’s quite possible that the club would rather Martinez walk, freeing up spending capacity to utilize in other, potentially more efficient manners. The ability to issue a qualifying offer and pick up draft compensation would also hold appeal.
That said, there’s no question the Red Sox are better with Martinez anchoring the lineup. The 32-year-old turned in a .304/.383/.557 batting line with 36 home runs in his second campaign in Boston. That wasn’t quite the monster showing he put up in 2017-18, but was still about forty percent better than the league-average hitter.
With just-inked chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tasked with finding spending efficiencies to keep the BoSox competitive at a lower price point, it’d be surprising to see an expanded commitment to Martinez. But there was — and perhaps still is — at least a theoretical possibility of working out a new deal that spreads the cash owed over a lengthier stretch. But that would mean pushing deep into Martinez’s fourth decade, a decidedly risky proposition.
For much the same reason, it is far from clear that Martinez would benefit by opting out. As noted, his just-completed season was not especially excellent by his lofty standards. The qualifying offer would be a factor. The consensus among the MLBTR staff seems to be that Martinez might have trouble beating his remaining guarantee since there just isn’t a ton of obvious demand for players of his ilk on the marketplace. It’s possible to imagine him getting more money, but there’s certainly downside risk in an opt-out scenario.
It may well be that the sides will remain wedded for the time being. Boras already controls the market’s top names — including fellow opt-out candidate Stephen Strasburg — and would surely love the chance to dangle another top name when he’s making the rounds with ownership. But the super-agent has also shown ample respect (and disdain) for the power of the qualifying offer and knows the limits of earning power for aging, defensively limited hitters. In recent comments, Boras said he believes Martinez is capable of playing the corner outfield and certainly seemed to be launching his marketing campaign. But it’ll be a close decision and one that probably comes down to personal preference and risk tolerance on the part of Martinez.
JD will make more money staying however not worth being around of they dont want him there as cutting payroll. Its a cancer…
I think so too. How many (contending) teams are able and willing to spend more than $20MM per year for at least 3 years for a dh (or at best terrible defender in right field)? Yankees already have Stanton who should dh, Red Sox want to cut payroll, he’s too expensive for the Twins, Indians, A’s and Rays and the Angels and Astros already have a good dh and have needs in other areas. I doubt NL teams like the Braves, Nationals and Cardinals (who could certainly use his bat) want to roll him out in RF fulltime. I think opting in would be the best choice for JD
lol
Great analysis as always.
You Red Sox fans make us laugh trying to convince yourself that with players like JD and agents like Boras that it isn’t always about the money…..do you really think that Scott Boras is going to admit that the lousy contract his client JD had to take with the Red Sox the last time is the best that he can get for him in todays market…..get used to it “its always about the money”…players aren’t playing for the BOSTON on the front of their jerseys…they’re playing for themselves.
He’ll opt out and if Boston wants him to either stay or come back, its going to cost them….
I think Boston would and should be thrilled if he walks. That contract was silly from the get go. At least the part after the first 3 years. They outbid only themselves on that one. If he opts to stay, they deserve it.
@heater if that’s the case he is 100% not opting out
If he can get $80M for 4 years…. he will do it… but its risky… for both him and the team that signs him.
I’ve proven this numerous times both ways before Rocky. Some players have gone with boras early on and just stayed with him.. gone the mercenary way.. Like JD drew and taken the highest amount forever. Then there are multiple cases of players like Varitek, who also refused to sign in the 1st round once (like Drew), then later on took less to resign with boston.
Players, with Boras whom took discounts have mentioned before? Jared Weaver, Bogaerts, Varitek (2x), strasburg. One day will make a long list whenever keep seeing this misrepresentation.
Using JD Drew and Varitek doesn’t quite make your case as neither were marquee players except maybe in Red Sox nations minds.
I say again, the modern ballplayer like JD, who elects an agent like Boras is always going for the best money and will sign with whoever offers the most…..they don’t care about the name Boston on the front of their jersey…hard for you as a Red Sox fan to comprehend but true.
Doesn’t matter if it’s marquee or not. My point was some of the guys that go with boras are just out for the money and some find a place (any team) and are willing to stay put if the money is comparable it seems. That’s why threw Jared Weaver’s name out there since remember’d his strong desire years back telling boras publicly he wanted to stay in anaheim. Sox player’s of course remember more, but any city.
Take off those blinders rocky. it’s about the game and more than martinez. i don’t expect him to opt out this year regardless. he’s due 25m this year, but after the 2020 season when he “only” has 2-20m salaries coming in ’21-22 seasons.
Players stay with Boras simply because he’s good at what he does. Even if you want to stay where you are like Jered Weaver with Boras in your corner you’ll be able to milk that team for more money, which is obviously a good thing.
If JDM stays with Boston it will be because he calculated he could not make more elsewhere (and actually risks getting less). End of story.
Should we start a go fund me account for Martinez? When does the greed end?
I’m just gonna throw this here like I have in other threads.
1) if JD opts out he gets a 2.5m lump sum payment from the Redsox.
2) this means JD has a peak potential to earn an extra. 21.25m in 2020, with 19m salaries in 2021 and 2022
3) I say potential 2021/2022 salaries of 19m, because, the Red Sox can opt OUT of the remaining years if their mutual option vests – it requires either 60 days on the IL for a foot injury, or, 10 days in the year before and 120 days in the combined preceeding 2 years.
So, if jd gets 3yr/59.25m from someone else he matches his peak earning, and, removes the risk of being let go should he become an injury concern.
Consider that as we all wait and guess what JD will do. At the least I expect his camp to seek for boston to either add a 4th yr to the existing deal and/or rewrite those vesting mutual options out.
I hope bloom does neither.
If Chaim Bloom views JDM and his contract the way you do then no way he opts out.
I can play the corner outfield better than JD. With the problem with his back, I doubt teams quick to sign the DH to a fatter contract then he had ATM. I can not stand Boras, I’m shocked He resigned so easily.
The signee I was referring to was Bogarts.
You’re of “those guys” that think they can do it better than the pro’s, huh? All while sitting on your couch reminiscing about your Junoir high accolades. We hear you, CHAMP!
I think he was trying to prove a point by pointing out JD’s terrible defense. Little bit of reasoning tells us he doesn’t actually think he’s better than a professional baseball player.
Gotham… do you know that for sure? Some of these guys in these boards actually think they can play/manage/scout better than the pros
He was obviously commenting on JD’s lack of skills, not glorifying his own.
Are you guys sitting on the commenting beside each other? Mind readers?
Or they’re just using common sense…
I’m always confused on why people on this website focus on JD’s defense but not Dever’s. More balls hit to 3B. 50 errors in 2 years and yet most folks only think of JD as a bad defender.
JD is the best hitter on the team. He hits for average, power and when the idiot manager puts him in the 3 hole he leads baseball in RBIs. Defensive metrics completely skew reality. JBJ is great but he never off-sets his atrocious hitting with his defense but ask a fan and they will tell you it’s ok that he hits under .200 nearly half the months he’s been in the majors. JD is a slightly below average outfielder but that’s not why we need him at DH. He is getting older and is more likely to get hurt in the OF so he DHs. How many teams have a DH that hits over .300 in a bad year and drives in 100 runs and hits 35 or more home runs? His contract favors the Red Sox and he may believe he could get more if he opts out. He also remembers not getting offers last time he was a free agent so he’s probably on the fence but Boras probably isn’t.
If I were Bloom and I saw our existing contracts I would go to both Mookie and JD and tell them we can do deals that are win-wins for both sides. The Red Sox need to keep 2020 spending down to transition to a more stream-lined payroll. So, take a little less in 2020 and we’ll back-load your contracts to give Bloom time to do his magic restructuring payroll. The Red Sox can afford to spend $150M on 5 guys if the rest of the payroll resembles a small market team like Tampa Bay. He needs to lose guys like Porcello, Pearce, Moreland and JBJ then replace them with arb or pre-arb players with the skills we need like Devers, Chavis and others we currently have.
Losing JD or Mookie removes us from competing for the post season. Nobody wants that. Think back to what we looked like before JD and after Papi. We don’t want to look like that in 2020!
JD, as a top hitter in baseball, is worth a top salary. If Mookie is going to make $33M or more then JD at $25M or more is fair. Mookie is much younger so his contract will be longer but JD isn’t OLD, he’s in the later part of his prime years. His contract needs to reflect that. Papi’s value never included his lack of defense, JD should be thought of in the same vein. He’s a DH and a top hitter in baseball like Papi. If Cora put him back in the 3 hole, he would go back to leading baseball in RBIs. That’s not on JD, that’s on Cora. FYI…. when JD hits 3rd during the last two years, our winning percentage is .667. When he’s not hitting 3rd, it’s near .500.
So don’t tell me JD isn’t worth his money. The guy that’s not worth his money is Cora. Think about it. 17% more wins if you hit him 3rd and Cora and his coaching staff and analytics people can’t figure it out.
The Cubs signed Castellanos and are playing him in right field and loving his bat….too think that there isn’t a team out there that believes they are one significant bat away from contending and making the playoffs….well enough said.
JD is a huge upgrade over Castellanos and it shouldn’t be a shock to see him opt out.
“As noted, his just-completed season was not especially excellent by his lofty standards.”
His 140 OPS+ this year was above his career average (138)
They were talking about his lofty standards from 2017-18. In those two seasons he had an OPS+ of 171. 2019 was a down year when compared to those standards, but still quite productive.
i have not seen jdm play the field since he was in detroit is he that bad? also has he played left field? and how has he looked?
He played RF with the D-Backs and he has next to no range.
Just imagine an elm tree planted in RF
That bad. Maybe he can man left field. Rf is more expansive then left.
If hes only a dh hes not making 20 mil a year hes stuck in boston
On average, there are more balls in play to LF than RF per game. So moving him to LF doesn’t gain you anything. Also, there are more short porches in RF than LF, so your belief that RF is more expansive is wrong.
Right field in Fewway
Weaker fielders are usually kept in lf. I guess it’s easier to hide the fielding issues.
The only thing about that elm tree his team would care about would be the wood in that tree he uses to bat….which is pretty elite in most of today’s metrics.
His defense would only be of concern to a NL team while most of his play will probably be in the AL….guess you guys forgot about the AL and the DH?
The Angels, White Sox, Astros, Minn.,etc are all potentially teams that could be in on JD that he probably not have any issues signing with not to mention Boston on a new deal, and a slight chance the Yankees might want to send a dagger north to Red Sox Nation.
Nobody is forgetting about the AL or the DH. That’s the point of why an NL team shouldn’t pursue him.
As for the teams you list, The Angels are tied down at DH with Pujols and Ohtani. Plus, their main pursuit should and will be pitching.
The Astros also already have their DH spot tied up by multiple players.
The twins have already used their option on Cruz.
Boston is looking to pare down payroll to get under the LT.
The White Sox could be a fit, but i have my doubts they’ll go the route of a single DH.
White Sox will offer JDM a contract with like $30m guaranteed and $500m in club options then throw a temper tantrum when he signs elsewhere.
Yanks already have Stanton and sometimes Sanchez and Voit as DH’s.
JD would be a great fit in Right Field for the Atlanta Braves!
Lol
I think it would be a huge mistake for him to opt out. I just don’t believe the opportunities are going to be there for him to get more money/years. Plus, where is he gonna go that has an equal or better chance to seriously contend?
Sox aren’t contending next year unless they trade Betts for MLB ready talent. They have almost $80mm per year tied up in 3 injured SPs and the bullpen is still in shambles.
Their 19 hitting was better than their championship 18 hitting. Could losing a step in Betts plug some holes (in additions and freed up money for new free agents) in their pitching staff ?
That is the hot stove question of the winter for Boston…
There is no way Boston trades Betts and simultaneously makes 2020 contention more likely. The reason to trade him is to add years of control to the roster.
That’s what people said when NYY retooled on the fly trading away Chapman & Co.
But, there they were, playing better baseball after the AS break and making a heavy playoff push after everyone thought they were done.
The guys they got back are also a decent part of the reason NY has contended the last 2 years.
Morale of the story? It’s all about what you get back, and how bad someone wants what you got. Until a mookie deal is done nobody can say exactly how he’d be valued. Also, will it be quality or young or mlb ready? Or quantity of high upside but further from mlb? Time will tell, and maybe never happens.
Chapman’s 2016 post-trade WAR dwarfed that of the guys he was traded for combined. The Yankees would have had a much better chance of making the playoffs in 2016 without that trade. That trade was 100% about adding years of control to their roster and because the Yankees realized trading Chapman didn’t mean they couldn’t bring him back if they were serious about bringing him back, which proves my point.
It’s possible. Especially with a large market team. They can rebuild in one year. It was done in 2012 when they traded away those overpriced pieces and then won it all in 2013.
But they wouldn’t be better in 2020
The only reason to trade Betts is that he thinks he’s worth Trout money. Betts is a good player, but he’s only 75% of the player Trout is. The most Betts is worth is $25-28M a year.
JD can also opt out after 2020 or 2021.
I believe his 2020 salary is around $23.5M, whereas in 21 & 22 I believe is around $19.5M. He has an opt out after 2020….is there any chance he would stay for 1 more reason and try to cash in?
There may be more AL teams looking for a DH after the 2020 season (Choo is on his last year in Texas, and Cruz in Minnesota)
Sure there is always the chance he stays and sees what happens next year since he negotiated two opt outs in back to back years that possibility was considered back then.
Let’s assume Martinez is an AL only player (though I could see the Reds willing to hide JD in left field) the only logical suitors with a DH vacancy & need for power plus OBP skills are the White Sox, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays, Indians. Likely priced out of Rays range and the other teams are rebuilding / will be safeguarding both financial resources and draft picks. What can Boras get from the White Sox? And in a opt out scenario, would Chicago be bidding against itself? Oddly a opt in then trade could make sense for all parties. White Sox can tack on an extension & can benefit from the Red Sox insuring the contract prior to signing. Just a thought. Free Agency hasn’t been kind to this profile of player, but JD just fits the White Sox perfectly.
I actually was hoping he would opt in and Sox would deal him for Choo and Minor…gives Sox a DH for one season and another SP
If he were to opt in then that trade idea is nullified by a NTC.
Doesn’t mean he can’t approve a trade
Why would he opt in and then approve a trade? Players and agent survey the landscape before making huge career decisions like this.
If he thinks he can’t beat his current contract in FA but the Red Sox offer him a trade to a team that he thinks has a better chance of contending for the duration of his contract that is exactly what he will do.
If that was his mind set than he would just elect FA and sign with said team.
Not if he didn’t think he could beat his current contract as a FA. Which is certainly possible considering he’s 32, limited to DH and would come with a QO attached as a FA.
Things just don’t work that way.
It is. You just don’t get it. It’s ok.
If JDM opts in, the RS can keep him. No way in hell the Sox give up prospects for a $20MM+ per annum DH. RS fans man, I tell ya.
Actually, they could. If the WS thought that JDM was worth exactly $62.5M, but didn’t want to give up a draft pick, then the WS could work thru back channels to let Boras know they would not be part of a bidding war. Then, if they wanted, the RS could trade JDM to the WS for a prospect worth less than the draft pick they would be giving up.
Unlikely to happen, but still feasible and logical.
They will be giving up prospects for him if he opts out. He will have a QO attached.
No he wouldn’t.
Yes he would. Teams are allowed to QO players who opt out unless they fall under some other rule that bars them from being QO’d (being traded midseason, already having received a QO in the past).
Players who opt out aren’t eligible for QO’s. Show me one example then…
Easy. Zack Greinke with the Dodgers after the 2015 season.
You can admit you were wrong now…
That didn’t happen. Keep digging.
Ah. So you are a troll. Carry on then.
Actually it did happen. No need to keep digging.
I don’t think he’s leaving.
If he does leave, I assume it would be for something at least moderately better than this $62.5M/3. That would mean more like a 4th year, or more like the same three years, but for $25M per.
As a RS fan, i wouldn’t chase him. But I also wouldn’t close the door if he opted out, but couldn’t find a contract.
I think he stays, the yankees are most likely not going to exercise encarnacions option and Nicholas castellanos is just a younger version of Martinez, there’s two players right there that Martinez has to compete with in the open market
Qualifying Offer (draft pick)
penalty with Martinez opt out. White Sox trade for Trey Mancini OF/1B makes perfect sense.
Cool story bro, pass the spliff.
Hey stroke…Cubs fans lol
If JDM opts out Red Sox should trade for Orioles OF/1B Trey Mancini. Dude is built to hit in Fenway Park.
Deal.
White Sox trade for Mookie Betts.
Bean Sox need 2b Pedroia injured/retired and 3rd 4th starter.
Mookie with 4 year extension agreement for Carlos Rodoni, Danny
Mendick and Ian Hamilton
Rodoni? Who are those guys?
Betts is not doing an extension. He’s going to be a FA.
Would the Orioles take Dalbec and a Red Sox
relief pitcher or two for Mancini?
A 24-year-old with a .301 OBP in AAA? Doubt it.
If he renegotiates with the Sox before the actual date with $8 M more over the final 2 years–that makes sense–that’s even too high–but by todays standards and with his numbers and his age–he outproduced Encarnacion and most other DH’s.in the AL
The Sox will not be restructuring JD’s contract. They will make a qualifying offer, so they can get a draft pick when he leaves, which is what management wants.
And he won’t opt out
If Boston wants him to opt to free up payroll, can they make a deal that he will opt out if he is not given a QO? Which will improve his market thus increasing his payoff for opting out.
Nope, those type of deals are expressly prohibited in the CBA .
Officially yes but they could make a handshake agreement that they won’t QO him if he opts out. It’s not like the commissioner’s office can force them to QO JDM.
I don’t see JDM going for this though because there would be nothing stopping the Red Sox from QOing him except their word and if they go back on it he would have no recourse against them.
Given the market the past few years for defensively limited players, seems that opting out would be a mistake for JD. But would be surprised if he could not exceed the 3 years and ~$62M left on his contract with Boston, which also includes an opt-out after next year as well. Plus, he is a Bora$$ client, which makes opting out more likely. JD would have to want to stay in Boston for him to opt in.
JDM recently stated he kind of enjoys moving around from club to club. Most likely that means he is gone.
Strasburg is not going to use that opt out. He has one to use next winter when Gerrit Cole won’t be available.
I don’t know. I think he will look good in brown next year
It’s at least refreshing that JD is the DH if he wants it. For once in their history, the Red Sox don’t have an overabundance of DH types on their roster. That said, they could replace him if they had to with Devers or Chavis. I hope they can keep Holt if they lose JD. Flexibility.
Devers won’t leave 3b for dh. You might see odd man out of chavis/dalbec.
If a good 1yr deal presents o the FA front I could see something there as well, but more likely you see a combo of Holt/chavis at 2b and a test of dalbec depending on ST
I’d love to see them get Howie Kendrick as a DH/2b option
I don’t think it was meant that Devers would be the everyday DH. I think he meant maybe a dozen starts at DH for maintenance, with Chavis playing 3B on those days. Then Chavis is DH when Holt plays 2B.
Correct me if I’m wrong…but another team cannot talk to him until he officially opts out. So, any decision he makes will likely be based on whether he thinks he can get more money elsewhere with team and location likely being secondary….but how would he know if he’ll get more elsewhere since he cannot talk to other teams. Having been off for a month by the time the WS is over, he and Boras could have had this all figured out and if he was going to “opt-in”, I think he would have done it already. I guess we’ll know this time next week.
No reason to opt in until the last minute. They could still squeeze a few bucks out of the RS, and maybe get a call from a WS ‘fan’.
That’s why agents get paid for their ability to read the market
Front Offices are too stupid at the moment to realize that the odds of a random draft pick turning into something more than one of the top 20 right handed bats in the game are about non-existent, so I think he stays. I’m not opposed, I’m glad he’s mashed for 2 years and only worn a glove about 100 times. We got mad that John Henry bought a $180 million boat before the 2017 season instead of a DH, so he humored us before 2018 and got a ring out of it. If he stays, he stays. If he doesn’t, I’m glad he was here for a couple years.
Glad JDM helped Sox win the 2018 World Series, but dude is a liability in the field. He should opt out but it is a gamble.
I think he opts out, and gets a somewhat larger contract. That will satisfy everyone–he gets more money, Red Sox lose a salary and get closer to CBT. He’s legitimately a superior hitter, and someone will find a space for him. An extension with the RS really doesn’t make any sense for either side given the salary constraints. Tacking a year on at $10M reduces the hit, but not by that much. Lowering the amount and spreading it over more time doesn’t give either side what they want. Not enough $ for JDM, and too much risk for RS.
No him opting out will not satisfy the Red Sox because if he hadn’t opted out they could have traded him for a haul of prospects. But with him opting out they lose him for nothing.
I don’t think he opts out.
There are very few teams willing to spend on a 32-year-old RH DH with back problems, and certainly not a deal with would lock him up for four seasons.
The track record for such types with nagging injuries at that age is not great. That includes Frank Thomas and Jim Thome. Both of them racked, but they also missed a ton of time, regressed somewhat, and offered nothing as fielders or baserunners.
JD Martinez is no Thome or Thomas.
Seems bizarre that a player can opt out of a contract yet the club can still pin the QO on him.
How so?
Martinez would be foolish to think a team will match that money owed or offer him more in FA.. he was lucky to have gotten his initial contract with Boston for over $100M. That being said, if he leaves, Boston should let him walk.
The Red Sox want 2 things. First they do t want his contract any longer. 2 they want to be greedy and get compensation if he leaves. You can’t have it both ways. Nobody is giving him the $$$$ he currently makes and certainly not with a QO and draft compensation attached.
The red sox could just as easily keep JD and trade Mookie.
The media has made much of how easy it would be to have jd leave to get their payroll savings, but, there are other ways to accomplish the same thing.
By this time next week either JD will be a FA or he wont. Pretty simple
He is going to the White Sox. Hahn needs to make a big splash. Hahn will overpay if he doesn’t the backlash will be bad this year after last year’s failed pursuit of machado and Harper
I do think that Hahn needs to make a splash, but I’m really hoping it’s not Martinez. In order to do better than his current deal with the Sawx, Hahn will almost assuredly have to overpay for a 32 year old DH. That might pay dividends in the first or even second year, but I doubt his cliff season is that far off, and by the time this team’s young players and prospects are developed enough for them to contend, Martinez’ contract could wind up being a massive albatross.
I’d rather see them go after Cole. I know it’s a risky proposition given how pitchers can tail off, but he’s a top of the rotation guy, which bumps everyone down a peg and likely puts Rodon in the bullpen where he belongs. A rotation of Cole, Giolito, Kopech, Lopez and Cease could be deadly much more quickly than a lineup with Martinez and the various offensive players and prospects developed.
As far as offense, I hope Hahn goes after Castellanos. A lineup of Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Castellanos (RF), Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Collins (DH), McCann (C) could be pretty solid.
Obviously getting Cole AND Castellanos is a massive stretch for a team that’s as gunshy about spending as the Sox are. But if they’re truly looking to open their window this year, This would be a good way to go about it.
The WS have to recognize they are a big market club, as the Cubs have done in recent years. You can’t actually buy a WS, but you can certainly improve your odds. All big market clubs should be stepping up to the bar and improving their odds. Anything less is a waste of opportunity.
I’ve always thought that JDM is more likely to opt out after next year than this year. For 2020, he makes $23.5MM–that’s a higher AAV than he can get in the open market. After that, however, he’ll make less than $40MM over the following two years. I think he is likely to bet on himself having a good 2020 and then opt out to do better than 2 years at less than $40MM. Even 3/60 would be a win, and 4/76 would get him to retirement. With Bloom in house, it’s a certainty that the Sox will not be picking up that tab.
Per bosoxinjection.com/2019/10/28/red-sox-rumors-white…
“Whether or not the Red Sox can afford to keep him will depend on if he prioritizes winning over cashing in with the biggest payday.”
This implies that J.D. Martinez would have a better chance of winning if he remains in Boston. That might be a false assumption considering what happened to the Red Sox last season. I don’t expect the Yankees or Rays to be slipping in the AL East standings anytime soon while the Astros remain the cream of the American League.
The White Sox are reportedly the favorite to land Martinez if he chooses to opt-out of his contract later this week. Chicago just completed the third year of their rebuild in 2019 and looks to be a team on the brink of contending for a wild card or even an AL Central Division crown as soon as 2020 with two more elite prospects ready to debut next season along with an offseason where they figure to add a significant starting pitcher and right-fielder to compliment an already impressive young core of talent. Signing Martinez along with those other additions could certainly make that scenario more likely.
The biggest question regarding the Martinez decision won’t come down to winning. It will come down to dollars. He and agent Scott Boras have to gauge the likelihood that a new free agent contract will be more valuable than the one he has in hand. That is a tough call considering Martinez is on the wrong side of 30 and is basically restricted to being a DH. The QO that Boston will tag Martinez with won’t help either. If no other suitors can be identified then Martinez will be less likely to opt-out since frugal White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf will be one owner who Boras won’t have bidding against himself, especially with their already tainted history.
My thoughts on JD are simple. If you think you can get more money elsewhere, do it.
With a QO attached, good luck getting more than 3/60M. I’d prefer to see him stay. There aren’t many owners that would give a DH 60M for the next 3 years. For that reason, odds are he stays right where he is
We will know soon.
I agree. I also don’t see the Red Sox extending Martinez with a new contract, especially with front office boss Chaim Bloom now in charge who just left a Rays organization that always had to prioritize roster building over spending money. When Andrew Friedman left the Rays for the Dodgers in 2014 he has continued that philosophy in Los Angeles and I expect Bloom to do likewise in Boston, especially since they are already in deep luxury tax waters.
I actually believe the Red Sox are hoping that Martinez will opt-out over staying or getting a new contract extension. If Martinez doesn’t opt-out it will be more likely that pending 2021 free agent superstar Mookie Betts will be shopped this offseason. Martinez and Scott Boras also have to know this likelihood which makes their decision to opt-out and enter the FA market this winter even more of a conundrum. If Martinez stays, the Red Sox will need to shed salary and be even less likely to contend going forward. If Martinez opts-out, the Red Sox will tag him with a QO making the FA slugger’s value more questionable.
It should be noted that Martinez will have competition this offseason with another slugging free agent who can’t be tagged with a QO in Nicholas Castellanos. Martinez is 32 while Castellanos won’t turn 28 until March. It’s hard to fathom Castellanos, who is every bit the defensive liability as Martinez, garnering a contract more than what Martinez is earning now with the Red Sox, at least in terms of AAV. With that in mind it should be a no-brainer for Martinez to remain in Boston. It also should be noted that Martinez will have another chance at opting-out next offseason if he chooses to remain with the Red Sox later this week.
Can you remember the Red Sox after Papi and before JD? Why would you want to return to that level of mediocrity?
JD is and has been the best hitter on the Red Sox, just like Papi until he retired. Stop focusing on his fielding, it’s irrelevant. We never downgraded Papi for his defense. JD is a .300 to .330 hitter, who hits 35+ home runs and drives in roughly 130 runs when in the 3 hole and roughly 100 runs in the 4 hole. Name three other DH’s you would rather have in 2020.
Cora significantly impacted JD’s performance on July 31, 2018 when he chose to move him to the 4 hole to get more RBI opportunities. Only a rookie manager would attempt to add more RBIs to a guy who was leading baseball in RBIs at that point. His RBIs fell off after that move and JD’s opportunities with the Red Sox have curtailed dramatically batting 4th. It’s not a reflection on him, it’s about a terrible manager who is clueless.
We have a .667 winning percentage when he bats 3rd and a .500 winning percentage when he doesn’t .
Those two facts make me believe JD is the most valuable player on this team, much like Papi was in the old days. If there was no DH spot, then the issue with JD’s defense would be relevant but there is so that makes his defense insignificant to any decisions about his worth. Nobody criticizes a catcher for not being able to play SS so why criticize a DH for not being able to play LF or any position for that matter.
The Red Sox need JD whether he opts out or not. The opt out gives Bloom a chance to restructure something that works for both parties and keeps JD in Boston.
Mookie has been the clear MVP as great as JD has been. Whether you like it or not a team has to get 27 outs to win a game and guys who contribute at a high level to that half of the game add value a DH does not. The flexibility of shedding JDs contract is worth more than his value to their offense. You mention one year, a year in which they still won their division and they had less experienced versions of their core offensive players. They didnt have the Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts and Devers they have now. Without JD they still score plenty of runs and part of the money they save can add a DH or 1B or 5th starter or bullpen help that will help.
If he is opting to stay he will be traded
That is another factor that has to weigh in the decision of Martinez and Boras. Even in the event JD gets traded he will still be getting paid his current contract and have another opportunity to opt-out next offseason. If the Red Sox trade Martinez this winter he can still be tagged with a QO from his new team next offseason should he consider opting-out following the 2020 season. If Boston waits until the summer to deal Martinez he can’t be tagged with a QO.
From the Red Sox perspective, they have to believe that any return for Martinez in a trade will exceed that of their QO compensation which would only amount to a 4th round pick in the June Draft.
It’s also the reason why opt-outs can’t benefit the team. The team doesn’t need the opt out to get out from under the contract if that is what they want to do. They can do that by trading the player. And they’ll get more in return for the player that way than they would by him opting out. And if his production vs his contract is at a level where he is untradeable, he’s not opting out in the first place.
Not unless the RS are willing to eat some of that contract.
If the GM’s view JDM and his contract the way the commenters on this page do, I think him not opting out is a pretty safe bet.
Only team can think of that make sense for JD are White Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, and maybe the Yankees if they’re able to trade some guys.
“But that would mean pushing deep into Martinez’s fourth decade, a decidedly risky proposition.”
If you’re talking about paying into his 40s, that would be his fifth decade. Same reason we say we’re in the 21st century even though it’s 2019, not 2119. 🙂
Big changes coming to the Red Sox this year! I could see JDM opting out, Boston trading JBJ, letting Porcello walk along with Holt, Pearce & Moreland. That frees up over $50M in payroll that can (partially) be spent on upgrading the bullpen and giving some younger guys a chance to prove they belong in MLB (Chavis, Dalbec, etc..).
The most important decision of this offseason is what to do with Mookie. The Sox are really frustrated about Mookie’s decision not to agree to an extension. Even though they are looking to trim payroll, the Sox have made a very substantial extension offer to Mookie ($33M+ for 6-8 years), so they have a really tough decision there. Losing both Mookie & JDM puts a huge hole in the Sox offense and in their OF defense as well, especially if they move JBJ as well. Chaim Bloom certainly has his work cut out for him this offseason, as the Sox have a lot of decisions to make that will impact the team for years to come. Hoping for the best, but I foresee a rough go of it for the next couple of years, especially if the team is ‘forced’ to move Mookie.
Will 8 yrs/280 get Betts resigned? Would make him 2nd highest paid player per year avg correct?
I trust our new GM to make the right decision. What he help build in Tampa over the long span he was there,was great. Especially this season with the little payroll they had they built a great team, so imagine if he also had alittle money to spend. They Sox spent 3x more the money then the Rays, so I can only imagine what he could do with just 2x the payroll.
So I’m expecting Bloom to do a great job with the payroll he’ll have to spend.
If he opts out and signs elsewhere, who realistically replace him and how much?? If he stays and they can get Mookie signed next year their in great shape.. I don’t believe JD is worth more than 25 per year because this last year, while great, was less than last year, and at 32 his production will start to diminish..
Since I admittedly don’t know the answer to the following questions, I invite factual comments.
A) how many losses were a direct result of Martinez’ defense?
B) how many wins were a direct result of Martinez’ bat?
Please keep in mind I really don’t give a crap about metrics and analysis. He commits three errors in 10-1 losses (or even wins), toss out those games. I’m talking about 1 or 2 run games here. If he misplays a ball in the 8th inning if a route, yes, it’s a stat, but no, it most likely did not factor into the final outcome.
…and, go.
Meanwhile, the exclusive five day window for negotiating with Red Sox free agents, like Brock Holt, ticks away to zero because one greedy narcissistic player refuses to believe that he is paid fairly.
It would also be a possibility if Boston stopped trying to get under the luxury tax threshold and signed the players like Brock and if JDM doesn’t opt out then they could either go over the $208M or try and trade players to get under $208M. Either way they have Chaim Bloom going forward and this will allow them to turn things around in 2021 and beyond if they can’t in 2020. This is a nice problem to have.
It’s also a testament to how good of a contract the Red Sox worked out 2 years ago that it is still a good deal today for Boston if he stays as he is a great hitter at that price and is priced to market. The risk is just too great for JDM.
Wow! JD Martinez, the Donald Trump of Boston baseball. Who would have thought?