The Astros are on the cusp of facing the Nationals in Friday’s third game of the World Series. Even though Houston hosted the first two contests, neither went its way. The Astros dropped a nail-biter Tuesday before the Nats slaughtered them Wednesday. It remains to be seen whether the Astros will mount a spirited comeback, but regardless, their season has a maximum of five games left. After that, they could see some important contributors walk via free agency We’ve already previewed the Nationals’ upcoming list of unsigned players. Now, let’s see which players the Astros might see depart on the open market…
Gerrit Cole, RHP:
- Fittingly, Cole rivals a National – third baseman Anthony Rendon – as arguably the best pending free agent set to reach the market. Cole’s coming off a 326-strikeout, potential AL Cy Young-winning season at the age of 29 – not to mention a mostly legendary fall – so no one should be surprised if he surpasses or even crushes David Price (seven years, $217MM) for the richest contract a pitcher has ever received. The type of money Cole looks likely to command could end up being too much for Houston, meaning the organization should savor every remaining pitch the superstar throws in its uniform.
- While Cole’s likely on his way out of Houston, it wouldn’t be remotely shocking to see the team retain Chirinos. Signed to a $5.75MM guarantee last winter after the in-state rival Rangers cut him loose, the 35-year-old Chirinos has turned in yet another respectable campaign at the plate. Although Chirinos’ reputation as a defender isn’t great, he has at least one key advocate in Astros co-ace Justin Verlander. Chirinos is Verlander’s personal catcher, and manager A.J. Hinch told Dan Shulman of ESPN last week that the two have an incredibly strong bond. Regardless of whether Chirinos sticks with Verlander and the Astros, he should do better on his next contract, perhaps having performed well enough to earn a deal in the two-year, $10MM to $12MM vicinity.
Wade Miley, LHP:
- Like Chirinos, Miley’s another bargain offseason pickup who has panned out for the Astros. True, Miley didn’t crack their ALCS or World Series rosters. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with the regular-season value he gave the team after signing for $4.5MM over the winter. Miley, 32, logged a 3.98 ERA/4.51 FIP with 7.53 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent groundball rate over 167 1/3 innings. Meanwhile, his expected weighted on-base average against (.301) checked in below the real wOBA hitters posted off him (.314). Exciting? Not really. Good enough for another guaranteed deal (maybe even a multiyear pact)? Sure.
Will Harris, RP:
- There don’t seem to be too many relievers who are more underrated than Harris, a 35-year-old coming off yet another regular season of strong production. Harris amassed 60 innings of 1.50 ERA ball (with a lesser but still-impressive 3.15 FIP), recorded 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9, and put up a terrific 54.6 percent grounder rate. Harris is now quietly one of the top soon-to-be free-agent relievers out there, so despite his age, he’s another candidate for a two-year accord.
Joe Smith, RP:
- Smith, 35, joins Harris as a veteran reliever whose quality career has flown somewhat under the radar. He sat out until mid-July this year after suffering a ruptured left Achilles last winter, but the soft-tossing Smith returned to post a Harris-esque 1.80 ERA/3.09 FIP, 7.92 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent grounder rate across 25 regular-season frames. Smith has been similarly tough in the postseason, having piled up 6 1/3 frames of one-run ball. While he probably doesn’t have Harris’ earning upside, Smith should at least be able to land a decent-paying one-year contract.
Hector Rondon, RP:
- Hey, here’s another proven reliever whom the Astros are at risk of losing. Rondon, however, wasn’t nearly as difficult on opposing hitters as Harris and Smith were during the regular season, nor has the team leaned on him in the playoffs. The 31-year-old’s regular campaign consisted of 60 2/3 frames of 3.71 ERA/4.96 FIP ball with 7.12 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 50 percent grounder rate. Compared to 2018, Rondon’s strikeout rate fell nearly 4 percent and his HR-to-fly ball percentage more than doubled, though he still pumped heat upward of 96 mph. He looks to be a decent bet for a relatively inexpensive one-year deal once the offseason arrives.
Martin Maldonado, C:
- Let’s move back behind the plate to discuss Maldonado, whom the Astros have acquired via trade in back-to-back summers. They reportedly tried to keep the then-free agent with a two-year, $12MM offer last offseason, but he declined and ended up settling for a $2.5MM guarantee with the Royals. Financially, it didn’t work out, and after another year in which Maldonado combined below-average offense with plus defense, it’s easy to imagine him winding up with a second straight payday in the $2.5MM range.
Collin McHugh, RHP:
- McHugh entered 2019 with several years’ experience as a sturdy starter and one season (’18) of excellence as a reliever under his belt, but things went haywire. The 32-year-old faltered in his return to a starting role early in the season. Between that and the elbow issues he dealt with, the Astros moved McHugh back to their bullpen. He was much more effective in that position, though McHugh’s season came to a premature end in September because of more elbow troubles. Needless to say, the long-solid McHugh’s about to hit free agency at the wrong time.
It looks like the Astros have a number of key players hitting the market this winter. I would not say they are an AL West lock for 2020.
No team is a lock, but the Astros are close.
Sure Verlander and Greinke can fall apart, but even then they are still the best in the division, and they are unlikely to fall apart.
I understand no team is a lock literally, but they lose a number of players that helped get them to the WS this year and have made them successful over the last few years. That will make a difference in 2020 and hopefully make the division a little more balanced.
You seem to be stating things in a vacuum. Will some of the players listed be with other teams next year? In all likelihood. But they will have opportunities to replace those players. They have a good minor league pipeline and that gives them the ability to promote and/or trade for needs due to players leaving.
I think they’ll do better than survive.
Batty – Nothing about my comment suggests a vacuum. It’s a fact that they stand to lose a number of players who contributed towards their success over the past few years. Whenever a player moves on they are replaced. I consider the 2015 Royals: shortly after their WS win, they lost a number of players who had helped them succeed. They are now, just a few seasons later, one of the worst teams in baseball even though they replaced the players they lost. I haven’t studied the Astros’ minor league system for depth; I didn’t think it was necessary for my benign comment. So they may very well have equivalent talent waiting to come up. My point is simply I look forward to a potentially more balanced AL West in 2020.
The West will be a lot better assuming the Angels come together to form some sort of pitching. I think last night showed our depth as an organization
I assumed a sweep after the first 2 games but the Stros have shifted gears in DC.
It also looks like the Astros have a bunch of older players hitting the market this winter as most of these guys mentioned above were 32, 35 etc.
It will be interesting to see how/whether they find adequate replacements to keep the line moving at the top of the Al West.
Yes, they have some free agents, but not terrible.
Coming back in 2020:
Every infielder and every outfielder.
The closer and top setup man
3 all star level starting pitchers (Verlander, Grienke, and McCullers )
Clearly that will be a competitive team
Yea we have a lot of free agents after this year but that also gives us some pay role flexibility to fill holes those holes as they see fit. Glad to say we don’t have any dead weight contracts. Main core is still there for another year or two. Gonna be interesting to see who they bring in to fill the holes. Luhnow does a great job putting the pieces together
You guys seem to do alright. Hopefully the Angels can figure things out this winter to challenge you next year.
Hedges to Astros?
Astros are in payroll hell next year. The Greinke deal is going to look really bad when they lose a number of key players because of $$.
Two years left on Greinke contract, I think they can handle it.
Is Arizona covering any of Greinke’s money?
Yes. $22 million over 2 years if I’m not mistaken. They are covering some money in some capacity
10.3333333 mil each of next 2 seasons
Payroll hell? Haha. That’s a bit extreme.
They can resign any of these guys except Cole, fairly easily. They could also shed Reddick and Marisnick’s contracts if they want to save some money, and have more than adequate replacements already on the roster, with Tucker and Straw.
And they can always go over the luxury tax if they want.
They don’t want. I read somewhere they won’t go much higher than were they sit now.
And the owner said the same thing before the playoffs and then paused and said “but who knows, we may win the World Series this year and rethink that.”
The Astros could have given up less to acquire Stroman instead of Greinke. As much as some want to get on Stroman for his personality, and rightfully so, this is the same team who took on Osuna. With Verlander and other leaders on that team they could have kept Stroman in-check and had plenty of money left for 2020. I’m certain Stroman could have matched what Greinke has done so far in the postseason.
Except they tried and were outbid by NY.
As Richard Nixon learned, the coverup ends up being the culprit. All of this would have been unnecessary if the Astro management would have apologized and not made their stupid statement. That caused the reaction from folks like Ken Rosenthal. On Wednesday he was fired since the management needed a scapegoat. The Houston Astros are the reason he was canned.
My hot take of the offseason is that Osuna is going to be non-tendered and become a free agent. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros wanted to wash their hands of this debacle.
Not a chance. They traded for him so they’re OK with what he did. And Osuna didn’t have a repeat episode of what he did, so I see no reason they’d non-tender/trade him.
No way do the Astros non tender RO. If they want him gone they would trade him.
Lol! Lunhow mentioned in an interview that they were excited to have Pressly and Osuna locked up for a couple more years. So no…….the Astros are not going to non-tender Osuna.
Cole would be a beautiful fit for the Dodgers.