Major League Baseball’s postseason begins Tuesday, which means the start of free agency isn’t far away. Before the market opens, there are several teams that will have decisions to make on whether to issue qualifying offers to pending free agents. The qualifying offer, which should be worth upward of $18MM, gives a club the ability to keep a player for an extra year if he accepts it. Otherwise, should he walk as a free agent, the team would receive draft pick compensation for its trouble. Those who have received the QO in the past can’t get it again (Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu is among those exempt), nor can players who were part of in-season trades.
We’ll begin this two-part series by looking at soon-to-be free-agent pitchers who may have set themselves up to land QOs before reaching the market…
Easy Calls:
- Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros: As the lone pitcher in this year’s class who has a chance at a $200MM contract (or maybe even a $100MM deal), Cole’s an obvious bet for a qualifying offer. The 29-year-old may well hit the market off a Cy Young-winning season, having amassed a jaw-dropping 326 strikeouts (against 48 walks) with a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP in 212 1/3 innings.
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants: Throughout the first half of the season, it didn’t look as if Bumgarner would be in position to get a QO. That wasn’t because of his performance, but on account of the fact that he looked like a clear-cut trade candidate. The Giants ultimately held on to the franchise icon, though, and if he does reach the market in a month, he’s sure to come with a QO attached. After enduring back-to-back injury-shortened seasons, the 30-year-old Bumgarner restored his reputation as a workhorse in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of matching 3.90 ERA/FIP ball with 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9.
- Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets: One of the hardest throwers in the game, Wheeler has bounced back from arm injuries that derailed his career from 2015-17 to regain his status as a coveted hurler over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old just finished a season in which he logged a 3.96 ERA/3.48 FIP with 8.98 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over 195 1/3 frames
Borderline:
- Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Twins: Odorizzi may not look as exciting as the above names on the list, but the 29-year-old recorded compelling results during the regular season for the World Series-contending Twins. Thanks in part to an increase in average fastball velocity (92.9 mph, up from 90-91 during the earlier portion of his career), Odorizzi registered a stingy 3.51 ERA/3.36 FIP in 159 innings this year. While Odorizzi’s trouble inducing groundballs continued (his GB rate checked in at just 35 percent), so did his ability to limit home runs (fly balls left the yard at a paltry 8.8 percent against him). Odorizzi also put up 10.08 strikeouts per nine against an even three walks.
- Will Smith, LHP, Giants: Like teammate Bumgarner, Smith was a much talked-about trade candidate whom the Giants decided to keep. Now, if they issue him a QO, they’ll get a draft pick should he depart during the coming months. The 30-year-old Smith was a force this season, notching a 2.76 ERA/3.23 FIP with 13.22 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9 across 65 1/3 innings. Smith converted 34 of 38 save chances along the way.
- Cole Hamels, LHP, Cubs: Injuries prevented Hamels from enjoying another high-inning season, as he totaled just 141 2/3, though he was still effective. But whether Hamels was effective enough to merit a QO is iffy. Hamels, who will turn 36 in December, managed a 3.81 ERA/4.09 FIP with 9.08 K/9, 3.56 BB/9 and a 47.3 groundball percentage. Considering a QO wouldn’t be much of a step down from Hamels’ 2019 salary of $20MM, it’s likely he’ll give strong consideration to accepting it if the Cubs make the offer.
Opt-Out Possibilities:
- Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: It’s up in the air whether Strasburg will become a free agent for the first time, as opting out of his deal would mean leaving a guaranteed four years and $100MM on the table. That’s a risky proposition for a 31-year-old who has dealt with plenty of injuries during his career, though the Nationals will surely hit Strasburg with a QO if he does gamble on going to the market. Strasburg stayed healthy during the regular season and put up a tremendous 3.32 ERA/3.25 FIP with 10.81 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 51.1 percent groundball rate in 209 innings – the second-highest total of his career.
- Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: For the majority of the season, a Darvish opt-out would have been unthinkable. Now, even though it still doesn’t seem as if it will happen, it’s not the impossibility it once was. The 33-year-old ended the season on an absolute tear, piling up 12 or more strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Darvish closed 2019 with a 3.98 ERA/4.18 FIP with a fantastic strikeout/walk ratio (11.54 K/9 against 2.82 BB/9) in 178 2/3 innings. Still, it seems he’d be better off sticking with the four years and $81MM left on his deal. However, if Darvish takes a risk on free agency, he won’t get there without a QO hanging over his head.
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on his contract, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fireballer opt to test the market again. He’s fresh off an age-31 season in which he pitched to a 2.21 ERA/2.28 FIP with 13.42 K/9 against 3.95 BB/9 in 57 innings. As has long been the case, Chapman was almost a lock to preserve wins, saving 37 of 42 opportunities.
Would love to see one of Smith and Odorizzi not get one. Easy calls my foot.
They did NOT say Odorizzi and Smith were easy calls
Borderline is the new easy call?
You two must not have read the article when it was first posted and Odorizzi and Smith were in the “Easy Calls” section. See below for other people discussing the unacknowledged edit.
When it was first published there were 2 sections titled “Easy Calls”.
What are the chances angels get Gerrit Cole and odorizzi
1%.
I would love to see both Cole and Strasburg sign with the Angles…Getting both is highly unlikely, but teaming them with Ohtani could possibly get the Angel’s in the playoffs…then the ultimate goal PLAYOFF TROUT!
It’s a win win for fans and baseball in general! The best player playing on the biggest stage!
Oddly enough, the playoffs have been just fine without Trout for the entire decade. It would survive the next decade without him as well..
Survive? Yes. Would it be better for the sport if he was in the playoffs? Absolutely.
braves25 kinda doing the drama thing? Ultimate goal? Love to see your dream come true. Not because it is the ultimate goal. Calm yourself brave one. Kinda creepy really. There a group or meetings you go to? A list of fellow marchers?
Mlb needs passion. Let the kids play! Lets go Dodgers!!!!! Time for some Ryuvenge against HOU!!!
Win-win for baseball in general? How so?
40%!
Even Cole and another less expensive veteran starter not named in this article like Gio Gonzales or Alex Wood would be a huge lift for the Angels squad.
The Angels will only be about $26 million under the CBT threshold, so it’s hard to imagine them picking up Cole at about $30 million AAV and Odorizzi or similar at $18-20 million AAV without jettisoning payroll in other areas.
Will Smith? Not sure about that. What if he accepts? They’d be a rebuilding team paying their closer $18 million. Sure, they can trade him at midseason…if he is healthy and productive. If he’s not, that’s a huge waste of money. I don’t see anyone else giving him that kind of cash as a FA this offseason.
I agree. It’s not a slam dunk. Will Smith might get a $3 yr $36 deal somewhere but he very well could accept the QO and I don’t see the Giants wanting to pay $18M for a closer when they aren’t contending. He also might be hard to trade at that figure and would likely have to wait until the deadline again when the contract value is around $6M. Tough call for Zahidi but that’s why we pay him the big bucks
They could afford the risk. They were paying Melancon that for crying out loud.
You cannot assume that the Zaidi front office will be anything like the Sabian/Evans front office. Just because Evans was willing to overpay for a closer during down years doesn’t mean Farhan will.
Get use to not recognising the way the giants do business.
Zaidi would literally buy out bad contracts for prospects when with the Dodgers. He had 260 million dollar payrolls while developing the farm. Smith not on the downward trajectory either. This was his best year smh.
Well him accepting an over pay on a 1 year contract isn’t that bad of a thing to have considering he is a premium reliever. They could flip him at the trade deadline even potentially covering the contract to improve the return.
I think between overpaid over extended guys like Melancon and the market itself for guys like Grandal, Will Smith would be best off taking the QO and trying for a 1-2 year deal in 2021 for similar money bumped up by the inflation. If he can get 3 years/$36M today, he could get a 1 year/$10M deal or a 2 year/$20M deal after 2020 and the $18+M QO.
I think Will Smith will try and will go for a 1-2 year deal at max value and try again a year or two later. With that in mind, he might very well take the QO, if 3 yrs/$36M is truly the max value on a multi-year deal.
I’m not willing to guess the future about a guy i don’t know, all I’m saying is that it’s not the worse thing in the world to have a premium reliever for 1 year on an overpay, lots of options without much risk.
If they offer Smith a QO it almost has to be with an eye toward packaging him as part of a deadline deal for prospects. Without the QO they loose him for nothing: with the QO they get a draft pick if he rejects it and signs elsewhere or they trade him (and his contract) for prospects. I would think that the market for Smith would be pretty good. There are several contending teams that could use an up grade in their closer.
They basically have to. Otherwise what was the point of not trading him?
Did you mean Cole could get 300?
no..
that’s a heck of a lot of money for a RP who not to long ago had TJS.
Chapman would be wise to look at what happened go Kimbrel and perhaps stay with his current deal.
Chapman can get 4/60. I just hope the Yankees don’t give it to him.
@padam
Not really. Kimbrel was asking for a 5/$100 mil contract. If Chapman is just looking for an extra year around 3/$60 mil then that’s a lot less of a risk than what Kimbrel was seeking.
After seeing what happened with Kimbrel and Keuchel, the worst case scenario is no longer a draft pick for team or player. The worst case scenario is player remains unsigned until after the draft and basically has a lost season, the team gets nothing for their departing FA, the fans miss seeing the best players due to stupid contractual things.
Why they can’t just award a team a draft pick without taking away from others is completely beyond me.
Any pitcher that isn’t named Cole that gets a QO better accept or should plan a nice cruise around April and May.
Kimbrel was coming off his worst year, and his peripherals were even worse. People saw what happen with Melancon and played it smart. Chapman is still dominant.
Because the point is to prevent the 90s Yankees approach of just signing every free agent.
They need to stop giving & taking Draft picks for players. The Players have put in so much service time they deserve to be a Free Agent without restrictions.
We cant let teams “Buy” the World Series tho. If we do that, We need to increase the Luxury cap to 50%/75%/100% for Overages.
Btw the Luxury cap is currently 20%/30%/50%. It works well but Without Draft Penalties it would need bumped up.
Teams already “buy” the playoffs. True, they can’t buy the World Series, because the playoffs are just a tournament that anyone can win. However, a team like the Dodgers or Yankees can buy their way into the playoffs because the highest payroll teams can afford to have injuries and setbacks and pay poor performers to go away. It’s not a guarantee, but if a team like the A’s or Rays had even half the injuries that the Yankees had, they would be in the running for overall #1 pick instead of in the WC game.
I agree that teams shouldn’t be allowed to buy their way in. However I disagree that teams should not get compensated for their free agents. Otherwise you will see teams trade away their stars before FA unless they are like the best team in the league just to get something back. Perhaps they could institute a “one free signing” per team. Every QO would give a team losing a player a draft pick, but would only take away a pick from the signing team for their 2nd QO signing and every one afterwards. That way it incentivizes multiple teams to sign QO free agents instead of a single team. Right now, a single team signing every free agent would give up less than each QO going to different places. Basically a team like the Dodgers could just punt a single draft and sign like 9 QO free agents and lose less actual draft stock since the draft picks that you lose get lower and lower with each signing.
It’s a tough thing to fix, otherwise it would have been fixed a long time ago.
The cubs couldn’t buy their way into the playoffs.
The dodgers have the most homegrown players among postseason teams, and are 6th in FA signings. But sure.
Yeah they did. Maybe not every single season, but they went 4 years in a row and weren’t eliminated until the last week of the season this year.
When only 33% of teams make the playoffs, that means on a truly level playing field, teams will miss the playoffs 2 out of every 3 seasons on average. That doesn’t happen. Sure Oakland and Tampa and Minnesota and KC or Toronto can make the playoffs with lower payrolls than their division rivals, but when their runs are over they are out for 5-7 years. When Boston missed the playoffs in 2012, they bought a bunch of FAs and won the World Series the next year. When the Yankees were “rebuilding” in the mid 2010s they never even finished under .500. And it’s not because they have a great GM or a hallowed history, it’s because they have the most money.
Yeah, but didn’t the Dodgers buy the entire island of Cuba hoping for something to pan out? And when it didn’t, were they hamstrung for a decade? It doesn’t matter the affect on this particular season. The point is that other teams couldn’t overcome the financial mistakes and the high payroll teams can. The Red Sox can afford to pay Rusney Castillo to play in AAA or Pablo Sandoval to play in SF for higher salaries than the highest paid Rays player. I think the Dodgers still might be paying Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp to not play baseball. The Pirates could not do that and still compete, let alone put together a dominant team.
Constantly gets overlooked when people claim “every team can afford to sign *blank* player.” The statement itself is 100% correct; every team has enough money to sign a player like Jason Heyward. The problem is that when his performance doesn’t come close to justifying his salary, a team like the Rays/A’s/Royals would be absolutely screwed, while a team like the Cubs/Yankees/Dodgers could just throw more money around to work around the problem.
Out of the Dodgers top 10 players
Barnes – Drafted by Marlins
Muncy – Drafted by Athletics
Hernandez – Drafted by Astros
Seager – Drafted by Dodgers
Turner – Drafted by the Reds
Pederson – Drafted by Dodgers
Pollock – Drafted by Diamondbacks
Bellinger – Drafted by Dodgers
Taylor – Drafted by the Mariners
Martin – Drafted by the Dodgers
Out of their top 10, the Astros have Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Alvarez, and Springer that are homegrown.
I should have said among position players.
Alvarez was signed by the Dodgers. I know that he was traded very, very early in his career, but I think technically he was not homegrown.
Yup. Homegrown means they drafted or signed him. Tatis for example is not homegrown in San Diego.
I realize most see it as a slam dunk, but to me it’s a slam dunk the Giants DON”T offer Smith a QO. Really, the guy’s been pretty inconsistent throughout his career; we’re not talking Kimbrel/Chapman here. 18M is an absurd price for a (more than probably) second division team to pay its closer.
And who exactly is going to trade anything of value AND eat 9M (prorated cost if traded) on July 31?
Makes zero sense.
Will Smith is amazing but I agree with you. He isn’t worth 18 Million a year.
I felt the same coming in 19, but if you consider the secondary market from last season, it’s extremely easy to see Smith easily topping that mark. With Smith age/injury history mixed with the fact he’s a RP there’s probably zero chance he accepts. Even then for a team that is rebuilding its a 1 year deal which entails little downside if he accepts. Sure 18 M per extended years is not worth it, but it doesn’t change the potential impact for the Giants system seeing there’s little risk. So even if the Giants offer is accepted & eat the extra 2M, at the 33% prorated TDL value, you’re getting more value that’s worth the risk reward than not extending it.
I see they have now rewritten this article, moving Smith down to “borderline” and changing the wording. Bush League.
Good call. I had to go back when someone said he was in the borderline category. I thought I may have read it wrong. However, no need to repeat your post multiple times either.
Actually wasn’t trying to. It wasn’t showing up in the comment section for several minutes so I thought I didn’t submit it correctly.
Maybe the author made a mistake that was later corrected. The correction should have been acknowledged, but calling it bush league is a bit harsh.
it’d be 6 million, not 9 million, but you are correct, though
Again you fail to mention the 32-34 million in deferred monies in Strasburgs contract. The fact that he’s being paid 1/3rd of his remaining contract in today’s dollars but 5-10 years in the future has to be a factor.
which makes it better for the angels if they are interested. it’ll be after pujol contract is done.
He’s talking about Strasburg current contract. He would opt out of that and look for a brand new deal. Unless you’re saying Strasburg is open to that kind of a deal which would interest the Angels situation.?
Gerrit Cole is so amazing.
Can you imagine your Teams GM dropping big bucks to sign someone like Bumgarner, Wheeler, Keuchel or anyone else on the market WITHOUT GETTING MAD???!!
Unless the guy they sign is Hyun Jin Ryu, I can’t imagine not being mad.
This is one of the best Free Agent classes for Starting Pitching that I have seen in a while. Yet, Cole is still leaps and Bounds better than everyone else.
He is worth each penny he gets!!!
Cubs would be wise to not attach a QO to Darvish if he loses his mind and opts out. Make it easy to dump the $. K’s per 9 the most overloved stat for starters. Going deep into games consistently more important.
Hamels is not going to get a QO as well.
Couple questions: Why do articles keep describing Chapman’s as a 2 year/$30M decision? Per his total contract guarantee of $86M over 5 years and per baseball-reference he makes $17.2M a season and will from 2020-21. So he’d be giving up $34.4M not $30M. It’s not a minor equivocation as it’s a 14.7% difference in value. Does he get a buy out of $4.5M or something?
If the Yankees are willing to pay him $17.2M AAV the next 2 seasons and he’s pitching as well as ever, even if his peripherals show normal age related declines, why not just re-write the current deal and extend by a year or two at an equivalent but modern rate of pay and call it a day? 2 years/$34.4M becomes 2 years/$37M and the whole deal is worth 4 years/$74M. They already owe him roughly half that, he’s having a fantastic season. I don’t want to give him up to save the money. Pitching is valuable.
According to Cots Baseball Contracts
5 years/$86M (2017-21)
signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/8/16
$11M signing bonus ($1M paid in 2016, $5M each in 2017-18)
17-21: annual salaries of $15M
Chapman may opt out of contract after 2019 season
Chapman may not be traded to Seattle or a club based in California
full no-trade protection for 2017-19
limited no-trade protection for 2020-21
A lefty closer like Smith is probably worth north of 15 million these days. I believe he’ll be offered a 3 year deal around 45 million. He might even get a 4year deal. Extremely doubtful Smith risks taking a one year deal with his injury history to make a few extra millions for one year when he can get a long contract worth a lot. And if the Giants put a QO on him it will scare off a lot of other teams like it did for Kimbrel so they might be able too sign him cheaper. If he excepts the QO and the Giants aren’t competitive, then he becomes a big trade chip. The Giants have the money to risk over paying by a few million to get such a valuable trade chip. IMO Smith is worth the risk to QO him.
Yeah after his 2018 and now his 2019 I think Will Smith offers start at 1 year/$20M, 2 years/$37.5M or 3 years/$50M for a contender with deep pockets and considering the QO value, there’s very little difference in his income potential on any of those types of deals, so either he takes the QO and will be worth a similar amount the following season or he thinks his market is way more limited and a 1 year/$18+M deal is as good to him as a 2-3 year deal at a lesser AAV.
I see the article has been rewritten, moving Will Smith from “easy call” to “borderline.”
The correct thing to do in a situation like that is to, at least, mention something about why it was changed in the comment section. Bush League.
Honestly I would rather the Braves sign Strausburg over Keuchel this offseason
I think pretty much every fan of every team feels that way…
If you were a GM, which ones would you be willing to not only pay a premium salary too, but give up a draft pick for on top of that?
Cole and maybe Bumgarner if that premium salary is reasonable. ( 4year 85 million or less). If Strasberg opts out he’s probably gonna want to much for my taste.
Probably wouldn’t sign anyone if my pick was in the teens.
If Chapman lots out the Brewers should jump all over him. Hader has issues this year and Is still a young guy. Have him setup Chapman or long work before the ninth would make that bullpen dominant
Opts, fat fingers
I don’t see any scenario where a) the brewers even think about going after Chapman, b) Chapman has any interest in going to Milwaukee, c) Milwaukee can afford him, and pay everyone else (including a possible extension for Yelich during the season or next off-season).
Knebel probably returns in the first half, Suter was crazy good after coming back from tj, and I think there’s a chance Pomeranz comes back. Thats 3 lefties (with Hader). What needs to happen is for Hader to finally master more than just his fastball/slider, with a random curve that I don’t think he ever really had confidence in. A better pitching coach wouldn’t hurt either.
I would just like to point out to every baseball executive in existence that the lost draft pick is worth less than every single player on this list. Prospects are bulls***. Remember Wil Myers was the #1 prospect for 3 consecutive years? Matt Wieters was supposed to be a switch-hitting Mike Piazza if Piazza was a Gold Glove defender. How’d that go? Keuchel and Kimbrel will out-perform everyone from 2019 on except for 1 or 2 guys taken in the supplemental round. At least try to put a winning team on the field.
I thought Will Smith was with the Astros. Didn’t he pitch last night?