Astros right-hander and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole just mowed down the Rays for the second time in the teams’ LDS matchup. Thanks in large part to the sheer brilliance he displayed in the second and fifth games of the series, the Astros have moved on in the postseason and are one step from advancing to the World Series. No matter how the year ends for the Astros, though, Cole’s in for a prosperous few months as arguably the preeminent soon-to-be free agent in baseball.
Cole, who just turned 29 a month ago, looks likely to head into the winter with a realistic chance at securing a $200MM-plus contract. As noted earlier this week, just four other hurlers (David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke) have reached that milestone to this point. But how does Cole compare to each member of that group when they signed their deals? Let’s stack up Cole against the younger versions of those starters in several key categories…
- Age when their contracts took effect: Price: 30; Kershaw: 26; Scherzer: 31; Greinke: 32
- Career average fastball velocity – Cole: 96.1 mph; Price: 94.2; Kershaw 93.2; Scherzer: 93.4; Greinke: 92.3
- Career ERA/FIP – Cole: 3.22/3.06; Price: 3.10/3.19; Kershaw: 2.61/2.88; Scherzer: 3.60/3.38; Greinke: 3.34/3.32
- Career strikeout percentage – Cole: 27.6; Price: 23.4; Kershaw: 25.4; Scherzer: 25.7; Greinke: 21.6
- Career walk percentage – Cole: 6.5; Price: 6.4; Kershaw: 8.3; Scherzer: 7.5; Greinke: 6.0
- Career groundball percentage – Cole: 44.7; Price: 44.3; Kershaw: 43.9; Scherzer: 38.7; Greinke: 43.8
- Career hard-contact percentage – Cole: 30.1; Price: 26.7; Kershaw: 24.4; Scherzer: 28.3; Greinke: 27.9
While the above numbers don’t tell the entire story, it’s inarguable that they carry significant importance when evaluating the usefulness of a pitcher. And there’s no doubt they make it clear that Cole’s career has compared quite favorably to all members of the $200MM class when they received their exorbitant paydays.
Adding to Cole’s appeal, he’ll journey to free agency as hands down the No. 1 starter on the market – someone who’s fresh off back-to-back dominant seasons, a third straight 200-inning campaign and perhaps a heroic playoff run. With all of those factors in mind, it would be perfectly reasonable for Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, to try to secure a contract in a record range for his client. Price ($217MM over seven years), Kershaw (7/$215MM), Scherzer (7/$210MM) and Greinke (6/$206.5MM) continue to lead the way for now, but they may have company soon.
Hopefully the Astros will still have Cole pitch another two or three games for them. But someone is going to give him $200M really soon, I just pray that it’s not the Yankees.
it will be the angels.
The Angels and Dodgers are both possibilities.
But I’d be a lot happier if he went to a team like the Padres.
Dodgers won’t do it. It’d be helping their rotation so that’s a big no no.
lol
Every time I see someone claiming the Angels will sign a player like that I can’t help but laugh. There is zero chance Cole goes to the Angels. They’re fine finishing around .500 as long as the fans keep coming out and they signed Trout to ensure that but it ends there. Cole is going to the Yankees I guarantee it. Money talks and they will have it to spend with contracts coming off the books over the next two years.
It seems like the Yankees are the clear frontrunners out of the gate
Why?
The Yankees have a lot of money to burn this off-season, a clear need for a SP1, a recent unwillingness to pay a premium for lesser pitchers, and a strong incentive to keep him from the Astros and Dodgers. Cole grew up a Yankee fan. Some of the other top spending teams seem unable or unwilling to Shell out $200mm+ this year for a pitcher, including the Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cubs. The teams that do seem to have the space and willingness, such as the Angels, Padres, Phillies, and White Sox, are much less desirable destinations for a player like Cole who wants rings. The fit is there, it’s strong, and it is being widely reported.
Yankees don’t have that much money coming off. They’ll more than likely re-sign Gardner, and way overpay of course. Too many big Contracts still left, and arbitration concerns. Good try with the Yankees are still the big bad spending bully’s theme. Corbin wants a word.
Widely reported by who? Or are we back to the “Yankees will get every player” according to fans? And if those players don’t go it’s because they can’t handle New York?
“Widely reported by who?” Yankees bandwagon central.
The “fit” being widely reported is more about the Yankees drafting him/failing to sign him and then trying to trade for him before the Astros did.
Realistically, they’d need to buck some recent trends to be a serious player for him. The Yankees haven’t signed a $100MM+ free agent since Jacoby Ellsbury and haven’t won the bidding on a top-tier free agent since re-signing Chapman.
They’re also already within $13-14MM of the luxury threshold right now — and that’s accounting for some maybe aggressive non-tenders and not factoring in salary for pre-arb players.
None of that is to say that they can’t sign Cole. I’ll be stunned if they’re not in the mix for him. But they’re connected to expensive free agents this time every year based more on narrative than actuality. It was true of Patrick Corbin, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and others. They’ll pursue Cole, for certain, but it’s been quite some time since the Yankees took a “sign him at any cost” approach to free agency.
They do have money coming off just not all next year. Ellsbury has one more year left and then you have CC, Didi, Gardner, and possibly Chapman coming off after this season. Chapman is a question mark but if he opts out I’m not sure the Yankees re-sign him.
@Bocephus
Cole isn’t Corbin. In 2019 he was a somewhat inconsistent pitcher who pitched his entire career in the NL coming off off TJ surgery. He was good in 2013, missed most of 2014 and 2015 due to TJ surgery., was average to below average in 2016 and 2017 then had a great “contract year” in 2018. Most saw him as a good pitcher but not exactly a proven ace. That’s not to say that he isn’t a star caliber #1 but Cole is one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball right now. One thing the Yankees LOVE are pitchers/hitters who’ve basked in the bright lights under pressure in the post-seasons and guys that have dominated them.
Yanks DON’T have a lot of money coming off the books but they are in a very enviable situation going into this off-season. Unlike last year where they had to address 3 spots in the rotation (Paxton, Happ and Sabathia strade/resigning), the bullpen (replacing Robertson, resigning Britton and bringing in Otavino) and middle infield (replacing Didi and bringing in DJ). This year we are pretty much set on the field with depth at just about every position. The only thing Cash needs to address is bringing back Didi, Gardner, Betances, Romine and perhaps Chapman if he opts out. The first four mentioned are as good as done as I don’t think there’s going to be a huge problem there as I think they all want to return and there likely won’t be a strong market them anyway. They can decide to let Champan walk if his ask is too much. Other than those mentioned, Cash’s singular focus should be to get 1 legit ace.
Yanks will have Severino, Paxton, Happ, German, Montgomery and Tanaka going into next year. Cole is exactly what they need. A legit ace that you can count on for 7-8 innings per game and 200 IP for the season. He would be what CC was back in 2009.
Yanks are not cheap as some suggest. Two years ago they acquired the largest contract in sports history and they did that while still addressing several needs in 2019 (Ottavino, Britton, Happ, DJ, Gardner and Sabathia). They didn’t sign Corbin, Harper or Manny but I don’t see how anyone can by any definition call that “being cheap”. They evaluated Cordin and they made what they felt was a good offer based upon that evaluation. Most people claimed the Nats overpaid last year. So you can’t say the Yanks are cheap. It’s fair to say they just don’t simply overpay (according to how they value a player). You can say that Corbin, Harper and Manny all had some blemish that maybe gave them cautious or whatever. Cole has zero blemishes other than his workload but you can say that about any top ace on the market.
Plain and simple. If Cole wants to be a Yankee and Boras’ ask is somewhere in the 6-7 year with total dollars somewhere between $220-$250 mil then I think the Yanks take that risk. He is the definition of elite and will probably pass any analytical evaluation you can come up with.
While the Yanks don’t have a lot coming off the books this year they do after 2020 with Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, Ellsbury and, DJ all being FA. Some of those guys might be retained or replaced via FA but they should have enough coming off to offset Cole’s salary to an extent. Tanaka likely won’t be retained at all and his salary can offset Cole’s by $23 mil.
I can’t say the Yanks will absolutely get Cole but they should absolutely be in thick of things and it will likely come down to where Cole wants to be,
“Unwillingness to pay a premium for lesser pitchers.”
37-year-old-next-week JA Happ and his $17m AAV over multiple years says hello from the Yankees’ playoff bullpen.
@spinach
a) How silly is it to compare a 2/3 year deal for $34-$51 mil vs long term six-figure deals?
b) So sick of you monday morning QBs. Happ had a great 2018. Was a proven SP in the AL East.
Signing Happ made absolute sense. And a 2 year deal with a vesting was playing it safe. So easy to critique a deal when you’re only looking at the results.
My guess is 7/250 from a contender, but it wouldn’t shock me if he received higher offers from lesser teams trying to make a splash.
He’s not gonna top 220 I’d bet
Said it on Mlb board years ago. That dude is a cry young award winning pitcher. Just needed out of pirates
8/250 mil & team option for Yr 9. That’s my random guess for today
No team is including an option for 9 years to a pitcher.
No team is going 8 years!
no team is going all the way to 250
Teams would include as many additional option years as possible for any player; including a year-9 option would raise the cost like $100k-$200k a year probably.
White Sox, 7/$225MM.
The White Sox will NEVER give a pitcher a 7 year deal.
White Sox will again be the bridesmaid.
7/$225 sounds about right. I agree.
I’m not sure many of the big dogs would play for the White Sox
All, for the right price.
Boras will seek a deal worth more than Greinke’s on a per yr basis ($34.417M) and larger than Price’s in total value ($217M).
My guess is $35M over 6 Yrs or $210M gets suitors a seat at the table / into the 2nd round. It’ll be the Yankees, Angels & potentially Dodgers / Rangers. Ultimately, I don’t see the Yankees going to 7 Yrs $245M+. I do see the Angels meeting that demand.
7 years $260ish. I do agree anything more than 7 is to long, but he’s getting at least $37 a year. $37.5 a year for 7 years is $262 million. The Grenkie deal is going to be beat on a per annual basis and that deal is 3 years old? Cecildawg js right. $40 per year and $280 total is possible.
none of those numbers are possible. that’s crazy money for a pitcher.
He’s been worth $108m the last 2 years alone according to fangraphs.
@jaysfan1988 Yeah but thank God that means nothing in the real world.
@DarkSide830
Is it really smart to say “no length of contract and or money ” are impossible? You think anyone ever thought Arod would sign for $250 mil back in 1986 which is only 33 years ago? I can easily see Cole coaxing 7 x $35-$40 mil. He’s the best pitcher to hit the market since Max Scherzer who coincidenatelly was in almost the same scenario as Cole is now.
Max was 29 when he hit FA. Same age as Cole. He had just had two back-to-back elite level seasons (2013/14). Prior, he was seen as a great talent who was inconsistent. Cole’s breakout year was 2018. In 2017 he had an ERA over 4.00 and some suggested that while he was good he wasn’t elite. Max received a 7/$210 deal with a lot of money differed. You can bet that Boras knows this too and is looking at 7 years as the starting point with Greinke/Trout like aav like $35 mil++.
I can not wait to hear the number that Boras floats out there. I wouldn’t be shocked if he started off at something like 8/$250-$320. Hey may not get anything near $300 mil but he isn’t shy about reaching for new marks. It seems like that was the main goal with the Harper deal. To try and set a record.
Dang this guy might get 40 million a year.
Phillies are in
Cole wants West Coast only.
Just like Corbin wanted only the Yankees. Cole will follow the money….especially if it’s stupid money.
Provide the source where Cole said that.
I doubt he did. But players do say a lot by the agent they choose. And choosing Boras usually says it’s all about the money.
Cole ONLY wants to play for the Cleveland Browns as a center. COUNT ON IT!
200 innings 3 years in a row. Wow probably sign with the Angels and immediately go out on TJ surgery.
Lol
Angels 7/232
5 years $200 million. Hope the White Sox will do this and get him.
5 yr/180 because of the last 2 yrs market sucked.
Not for the top of the market.
We will see…bryce never got his expected contract being ontop
the numbers here are getting crazier and crazier. $250 mil total. $40 million a year. 9 years. no way, none of that ever happens. amazing or not, he’s a pitcher, that contract could look real bad in the end.
It only looks “bad” because fans dont realize the insane amount of surplus value provided during the good years. Cole has been worth $108m the past 2 seasons alone. A 9 year deal worth $250 could be paid for by year 5 so literally anything that happens in years 6 through 9 of that hypothetical deal would be pure gravy.
The Yankees will listen but will lurch in the background until numbers are thrown out and will give a moderate figure to Boras and tell them to come back when other suitors start dropping.
A lot as well that will factor in is the Playoffs right now if the Yankees bounce Houston and head out to the World Series and win with the collection of players they have now would be hard to see them shelling out some big money unless they trade say Hicks or Stanton’s contract to offset the contract that Cole will be looking for. Now if they lose to Houston because their starters faltered then obviously their interest skyrockets.
But for now I see more or less these teams as favorites:
1-Angels need a splash and if Joe Maddon takes over they need to surround Trout with more talent and it starts with pitching
2-San Diego Padres Up & Coming team that with the group of young talent mixed with veterans can eventually start challenging in the NL West
3-Cubs-Need to invigorate the starting pitching with Hamels & Lester up their in age they could be a nice darkhorse especially after seeing St.Louis move past them in the standings and how they season ended for them.
4-Atlanta-If they want to take the next step a stopper to team with their young talent can push them over the hump.
5-Washington -If Strasburg opts out they should make a run at Cole he is more durable than Strasburg and more proven he may cost more than what is remaining on strasburg’s contract 4 yrs/$100 million but off the cup of knocking out the Dodgers if they fall short to St.Louis between the Cubs & Washington these are my two dark horses.
Suitor you’re missing is the Phillies, and who knows, maybe even mets.
Angels have made big deals in the past, but, generally they lose on them – pujols… hamilton… so on.
SD can’t hold too many BIG contracts, would have a team of young arb-eligible players in a contention window, and as Cole aged, wouldn’t be able to move the big contract to keep everyone else.
Cubs just don’t have the cash, and, aren’t looking for a long term big ticket when their core is nearing a teardown
Atl is an interesting thought. They have the money, but, also still have a number of young arms – which works both ways. On one hand they can hope someone sticks. On the other, they could tender and trade say Teheran for an opening and use a Cole to mentor those young arms…
In Washington it goes back to 3 things- 1) does stras opt out, esp after this post season; 2) do they pay Rendon the big $$$ to stay; 3) how does Cole feel about deferred money? Might help hit the $$$ targets for contract value. But does ownership begin to get concerned about all the deferred contracts obligations stacking up?
Yankees go without saying, maybe twins.
This may seem crazy but not impossible. Astros can sign Cole with a little creativity. With Arizona paying part of Grenkie contract he is owed only 23M per season for two years, we move him for 2 or 3 prospects , we trade Reddick and 4M in cash for an ‘A’ ball player (net 10M in savings). You do not resign Miley, Rondon and Smith, a combined 13M in salary savings. Gurriels contract is 2M less for 2020 season than ’19 season. All told that is 48M off the books for next season. If we are able to sign Cole for 30M per year and give Springer a 12M per season raise that still leaves you money for your arbitration eligible players. Definitely doable IMO.
Twins will offer him a 3-4 year deal at 40 million a year. Gets paid and can hit the market for another big payday
Angels fans are in a pipe dream. The team has holes all over the place and $135M committed to 2020 before arbitration even. Here’s their game plan.
1. Release Albert Pujols and eat his contract.
2. Secure a couple less expensive mid/back rotation arms
3. Hope Ohtani dominates as a starter next year
4. Fill a positional holes with 2.0 WAR caliber players.
Pursuing a 30M / yr long term contract for a starter isn’t part of their realistic goals.
Put down the crack pipe. They have holes in the pitching staff first and foremost, that will be addressed for 2020. They have like 28-32m coming off from those crappy 2019 FAs alone, Plus Calhoun “probably” coming off the books. Arte has the room to spend 50-70m and stay under the luxury tax. The question is… will he finally write the checks for the top talent? They need 2 SP, 1 C, a utility IF
C FA
1B Pujols/Thaiss
2B Fletcher/LaStella
SS Simmons
3B LaStella/Fletcher/Thaiss
LF Upton/Goodwin
CF Trout
RF Adell/Goodwin
DH Ohtani/Pujols/Thaiss
Utility ??? They are cheap/dime a doz.
Sp1 Cole (32-34m/yr x 6-7yrs.)
Sp2 ??? (10-16m/yr x 2-4yrs type, or maybe a trade?)
Sp3 Otanhi
Sp4 Heaney
Sp5 Canning
Some of the remaining 2019 SP (Pena etc) can be more useful as RP for 2020.
So lets go with your idea, shall we?
Start with $135M guaranteed on the books for 2020 already.
C = Free Agent.? +2.0WAR +$10M (Low/medium caliber starter)
1B = Controlled +0.0WAR +$0
2B = Controlled +0.0WAR +$6M (LaStella arb)
SS = Controlled +0.0WAR +$0
3B = Controlled +0.0WAR +$500k (Fletcher)
LF = Controlled +0.0WAR +$0
CF = Controlled +0.0WAR +$0
RF = Controlled -1.0WAR +$3M (Goodwin arb)
DH = Controlled +0.0WAR +1M (Ohtani pre-arb raise)
Not accounting for increase for utility players, we’re at about $156M now and +3 wins of production, barring rebound years.
SP = Free Agent +4.0WAR +$32M (Cole replaces Skaggs)
SP = Free Agent +1.5WAR +$12M (#4 caliber starter)
SP = Controlled +3.0WAR +$0 (Ohtani replaces Pena)
SP = Controlled +0.0WAR +$6M (Heany arbitration)
SP = Controlled +0.0WAR +1M (Canning, who probably will need TJ)
We’re at about $207M now and +11.5 wins.
Tack on another $10M for the bullpen at least with no major improvement for results.
Including the bullpen and utility players rounding out the roster, the Angels now sport a $220M payroll next year. No problem TOTALLY believable. They also have an additional 11 wins or so by adding talent so they’re still about 10 wins short of the playoffs. So sure, I believe the Angels COULD see 10 additional WAR of production from existing players, but it’s an absolutely BEST case scenario. They’re also nowhere near spending $220M so like I said, pipe dream.
if we beat the Yankees next week, he’s not going to be hitting the open market.
“if we beat the Yankees next week, he’s not going to be hitting the open market.” What job do you have in the Astros front office?
I have the ability to listen to what Crane & Cole say. It’s been obvious for two months that they are trying to make this happen, and both parties want it to.
My question is, how is it that the rest of you, including writers for this site, don’t see that? Plain as the nose on your face.
Lol the owner isn’t going to come out and say he isn’t going to try. Gerrit has no reason to ruffle feathers when he’s trying to win another World Series either. To suggest it’s writers from this site coming up with some conspiracy theory of him bolting for more cash is ludicrous also. Crane’s comments were “we may win the WS, so you never know”. None of that implies that Cole will definitely be resigned. That sounds like a comment that you’ve clearly bought into it; I’m sure Crane is appreciative of that. But he didn’t make a single promise there.
google.com/amp/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/a…
Lol
If they go to the Series, he will DEFINITELY be resigned.
Crane is the one who got us Grienke. He’s ALL IN, if cash flow is there.
And I implied NOTHING about “conspiracy.” It is NOT conspiracy, it is ignorance.
@Cole Shepherd
Even if Cole wants to stay with the Astros there’s no feasible way Boras and Cole come this far, literally weeks away from hitting the open market, and sign with Houston. It makes every bit of sense to create a market for Cole and at minimum, use others to get the best possible deal from Houston. Also, some guys just want to at least go thru the wooing process. This may be his ONLY chance to see what it’s like. Just can’t see him not going in to test the waters. He can still sign with Houston, but Boras isn’t going to make it easy on them.
See Altuve. *Personally* I don’t think Cole is going to let Boras have a lot of say in this. The REASON Cole would want to stay is, he loves it here on this team, with these teammates, this owner, this GM, and this front office. Culture is GREAT, Future is bright with rings potential. Neither he nor Crane want anything to disrupt that. “Testing the waters” will disrupt that.
I might be wrong. But I don’t think I am.
@Cole Shepherd
One thing about Cole is that he comes from money (not necessarily millions) but it MAY not the most important thing for him to get THEE most money. Yanks drafted him in the 1st out of HS and he choose to go UCLA because he wanted to live the college experience. I think he will take the same approach this winter. I bet he wants to see what the FA process is like. He may well wish to sign with Houston but I can’t see him and Boras getting this far and not test the market.
The Nats will be all over this. They’ll be out on Rendon they’ll sign cole 7 yrs 212 m with 190 m deferred until 2075
The Yankees gave Sabathia a 7 year deal and then extended it when he opted out. I’m sure Cashman and Boras can be creative enough to get as close to 8 to 10 years as possible.
Cole will be 29 for most of the 2020 season. A 6 year deal takes him to 34. I think the Yanks would prefer to pay a high aav vs guarantee 8 years total. I could see something like 6/$240 with team options at $30 mil per for a 7th and 8th year with a $10 mil buyout. for $250 mil guaranteed. You put a contract that shatters the aav record for ANY player, sets the record for highest guaranteed total for a pitcher AND gives Cole a chance to be the 1st $300 mil pitcher and I think that happens.
And if it does happen I don’t want to hear a peep of complaints from ANYONE because it wasn’t the Yanks that signed Scherzer, Stanton, Harper, Trout or Manny to those other record setting deals. This would be the largest contract they issued since the one they gave to Arod. The difference is that they won’t be paying Cole into his late late 30s or 40s. If he gets injured, insurance will cover most of it I assume. They shouldn’t have a problem getting him covered since he’s never had a significant injury before.
It’s the Yankees fault theses contracts got like this. So… shhh.
Thank George for starting the trend that lead to this
Everything points to biggest pitcher contract ever. Absolutely no reason for him to settle for Lee’s or think somebody won’t offer it.
7 years at $35 is the starting point.
I’m just hoping that he is willing to take a smaller salary the first 2 seasons (until Verlander and Grienke are off the books) and then larger the final 5 so the Astros could be an option.
On a bit of a tangent – I wonder if any team would get creating and offer alternating larger and smaller annual salaries to offset the penalty for consecutive years over the luxury tax? Or if any player would accept such a thing.
7/$245 @ $8mil per win means he needs to get about 31 WAR over the course of the contract for it to be a good deal.
He has 24.3 fWAR in 5 full seasons and 13.4 the past 2 seasons ( since the Astros worked their magic)
No major injury history or risk.
No reason to think this would be a bad contract.
I’ll take him
he would enver go here but the White Sox should back up the brinks truck 220 million
I think his age, recent production (2018-2019) and overall health will land him a $200M contract. So many contenders need a legit top of the rotation starter and Cole fits the bill. I see a bidding war between the Yankees, Astros, Angels, Padres and even the Dodgers taking place. Ultimately, Cole signs with SD for 6yrs- $210M.. IMO