A year ago at this time, the baseball world was gearing up to see outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado reach free agency. They represented a pair of rare 26-year-old franchise players who were on the cusp of hitting the open market, and there was little doubt they’d end up with a couple of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. While the two wound up sitting on the market for longer than some may have expected, they ultimately did score the largest deals ever awarded in free agency before the offseason concluded. Harper left the Nationals for the Phillies’ 13-year, $330MM offer, while Machado waved goodbye to the Dodgers after a short stay in LA and signed with the Padres for 10 years and $300MM.
It wasn’t surprising that Harper and Machado reeled in $300MM-plus guarantees last winter, whereas there’s little chance of a free agent approaching that figure this offseason. That’s not a knock on the absolute best players in the upcoming class, though, as Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole and Nationals third baseman/ex-Harper teammate Anthony Rendon do have cases to collect massive paydays. In fact, both players – a pair of Scott Boras clients – have strong arguments to reach or exceed $200MM in guarantees on their forthcoming contracts.
Cole, who turned 29 last month, could not only win the AL Cy Young after putting up a 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 326 strikeouts in 212 regular-season 1/3 innings, but the ace workhorse may also aid his cause with an epic playoff run. Cole looked to be setting himself up for a postseason in his start this past Saturday. He ran roughshod over the Rays in 7 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 15 hitters, issuing one walk and allowing four hits during a 3-1 victory.
Regardless of how the rest of the postseason goes for Cole, Boras will likely try to get his client a pact in the vicinity of the all-time record for a pitcher. That honor has belonged to Red Sox lefty David Price since December 2015, when he inked a seven-year, $217MM contract as a free agent. Nationals righty Max Scherzer, another Boras client, isn’t far behind on the seven-year, $210MM deal he scored via the open market the winter before Price landed his accord.
Indications are that Rendon, who’s also 29, has already turned down money in the Price/Scherzer neighborhood in advance of his much-anticipated foray into free agency. Rendon spurned a seven-year, $210MM-$215MM offer (with deferrals) from Washington, perhaps in hopes of signing a contract that’s closer to the seven-year, $234MM extension Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado received before this season. While Rendon, who finally earned his first All-Star nod this year, is neither as decorated nor as young as the four-time All-Star Arenado (28), there’s a legitimate case he’s the superior player.
Dating back to 2017, which is admittedly an arbitrary cutoff point, Rendon ranks fourth among position players in fWAR (19.9; Arenado’s ninth with 17.4), trailing only MVP winners Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich. And Rendon seems likely to garner serious consideration for this year’s NL MVP honors, having slashed a career-best .319/.412/.598 with personal highs in home runs (34) and fWAR (7.0) across 646 regular-season plate appearances.
It may be a long shot, but we could see Cole and Rendon square off against one another if in the Fall Classic in the next few weeks. No matter how the season ends for their teams, though, which of the two stars do you expect to emerge from the winter with the bigger contract?
(Poll link for app users)
Do not be surprised if Cole signed with the Yankees six years and somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 million Astros are very paranoid about the luxury tax and the Yankees want a number one starter that bad.
I think he likes his beard and he already turned down the Yankees once being drafted in the first round out of high school.
Yea no team has ever been spurned by a high school player choosing college…whatever. “I think he likes his beard” You can’t be serious, ridiculously funny stuff though.
If that’s the deal breaker, he’s got bigger problems. Keep my beard, or make 200+ million $$
I bet angels match anything yankees offer anyway. I bet he would prefer la over ny
It’s not that ridiculous. And he’s not choosing between the beard and $200+ million. He’s is choosing between the freedom to grow a beard and the difference between a Yanks contract and another team’s deal. Which won’t be that much.
I see the angels angelsl making a few splashes this winter
They said the same thing about CC Sabathia a decade ago. It’s more than just money and location. It’s the luxuries, winning atmosphere and a mired of other factors that neither you or I are aware of. It’s conjecture at best, online rambling madness at its worst.
Keep my beard, and take someone elses 200 million. Seems like a pretty easy decision. Im sure lots of players would prefer an organization that allows fun and character
Have you even watched the Yankees this season? That’s a fun team.
The beard is likely the reason Keuchel didn’t sign with the Yankees. I’ve read the Yankees offered him more $ and had a better chance of winning it all then the Braves did. Keuchel has no ties to Atlanta or Georgia. Why would he sign with Atlanta for less money when the Yankees had a better opportunity to win as well as featuring him more since the Yankees needed starting pitching more? Some guys with beards are very partial to them. The guys I know like that don’t even really care that much about the hair follicles growing from their face. It’s more about the fact they are incredibly insulted that and organization would have the audacity to try and tell them how to grow/not grow their own hair. It’s not like he has to choose between the beard and $200 million. It’s more like he has to choose between the Yankees and the beard. He will get $200 million wherever he goes and all if those teams will let him keep the beard. Not to mention he might prefer to play for his home state of California. Nothing could be more opposite of that than the Bronx. Maybe Cole doesn’t care much about his beard and would sign with the Yanks for a better opportunity to win over the Angels and Padres. I haven’t heard much talk about it but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers let Ryu walk and replaced him with Cole. They spend a ton of $, create a better opportunity to win right now and won’t consider even suggesting he cuts his beard. I also think the Phillies and ChiSox will make Yankees sized offers to him without the forced beard shaving.
either them or the sox. they both struggled with pitching this year.
No way you could mean the red sox.
They just fired a gm/pres of ops which, if you connect the dots, meant big money to sale and eovaldi isn’t in line with our organizational thinking, good-bye.
I do NOT see another 25-30m SP contract in the near future for them.
Pale hose? Maybe, but I’d think they want impact bats before SP, especially with the power of abreu on the way out of town.
If Maddon becomes the next manager for the angels, It’s almost a lock for them to get Cole
why?
Rendon.
I will guarantee neither will be a Brave even though the Braves could use one of them and have the money.
Rendon could be a nat
He could be a mariner
A ranger
Who knows?
We can forsure say he won’t be an A or a Ray.
im willing to bet he wolnt he wolnt be either of the latter two.
“wolnt”?
Ever heard of a typo? Or did you actually not understand his comment?
It should certainly be Cole. Cole is by far the best pitcher on the FA market this year and arguably might be the best (or at least top 3-5) SP’s in all of baseball. So if one of the two deserves a record-type contract it’s him. Having said that I do realize that theres a potential for a team to “overpay” for a bat the caliber of Rendon’s but I honestly feel like he’s more of a top-30 (at best) offensive player. Whereas Cole has the potential to be the best (or close to it) next season as a team’s ace.
White Sox will end up signing both, if you believe the hype on Chicago sports talk by a few hosts. Of course I can remember going back to hearing these same apologists reiterate the same party line, trying to tie most top free agents to Reinsdorf over the last 15 years. They seem to ignore Uncle Jerrys long history.
Hah yeah- they’ll offer Cole an 8 year $50 million dollar contract that if in his 8th year he throws 20 complete games, wins a minimum of 25 games, strikes out 350 and walks less than 5 men it will pay him a $200 million dollar bonus. Then Kenny will whine like a little girl that Cole signed elsewhere even though the Sox offer could have paid more. He’s such a putz.
Like they were going to sign manny and Harper?
They even went so far with signing his best friend and his brother in law to entice him. Nope so they dfad his brother in law
Maybe the White Sox will go and find some of Gerrit Cole’s friends and sign them to play. Does Cole have a brother in law playing baseball? Can they get him? BIG QUESTIONS.
While I don’t disagree with you about him being most valuable player in the free agent class, I might argue that rather than spending 200+mil on Cole look at what that 200 could get you with the remaining market. Bumgarner, Hill, Strasburg you could probably get a good 1-3 for 60 mil a season and become an instant contender if you have a lineup!
supply and demand says Cole will 100% get a bigger contract. unless you are the Mets or the Nats you will break the bank for a real starter. with most teams having a serviceable 3rd baseman or better i don’t see the demand being that high for Rendon. I’m aware that there’s an incredible chance neither will make it to FA but it will still effect the price that they come at. Both the Nats and Astros know that they need to pay more to retain them.
In a 5 game series, you get to play Rendon every game.
Cole will pitch in two, at most 3 games. That’s what it comes down to.
In those two games Cole plays in, he will likely impact 20+ plays each game, most of which will likely be effective.
In 5 games, Rendon will likely impact the game in roughly 20 plays + defensive opportunities.
I would rather have the guy that will likely put my team in position to win 40% of the series just by being on the bump.
I’ve always found this view rather strange. Rendon affects usually four plate appearances (his own) and a few balls hit to him per game, but if Cole goes 7.0 innings, that’s 21 plate appearances he’s affecting. Position players may play more games, but they have much less impact per individual game than a starting pitcher, especially an elite one, does.
Aside from that, Rendon isn’t even the best third baseman in baseball, much less the best position player. Gerrit Cole is arguably the best starting pitcher on the planet right now.
Great perspective
Cole might have a bigger affect on an individual game, but Rendon has a bigger affect on a SEASON. You don’t make the playoffs based on 20% of the year, you make it based on 100% of the games. Even if Cole has an impact on 100% of the plays in his game, it still only counts as 1/162 of a season. Rendon would have a partial impact on a far greater percentage of the season. I’d rather have that.
I mean there’s a stat made for this: WAR.
Cole has a 6.8 WAR, Rendon 6.3 WAR.
WAR definitely isn’t a perfect stat, but if you’re trying to compare player value in regards to wins, that’s probably your best bet.
Not only is WAR not a perfect stat, there isn’t even a universal equation for computing it. Until they at least figure that out, WAR for me is nothing but white noise.
So, using your logic, pitchers in general are the least important part of any roster. As long as we put out huge bats in the lineup, we could start Bartolo Colon as our ace and still be a great team. Maybe you should re-read the comment from BKS and play around with your math. His comment makes a lot of sense. Yours… well it just doesn’t.
How about the Mets, Red Sox, Angels (I mean they have Trout, so how could they not win, right)?
All of those teams have pitching issues. Do the Yankees just not need Betances or Severino at all next year?
I’ve always wondered how anyone doesn’t understand 600 plate appearances is less than 800 batters faced.
Cole has a bigger impact in those 2 or three games than Rendon over the 5.
Yes, but if Cole wins both of those games, you can lose the series. Rendon could theoretically win you the series by himself.
No he couldnt. Offense needs more than Rendon to get it done. If he comes up with 2 out and nobody on every at bat, and hits solo homers all series, how does he win it by himself? Rendon is only as good as much as the guys in front get on base–goes with every slugger though. The table setters are just as/if not more important than the slugger himself. Cole can legit strikeout every batter for 4 straight innings without any help from his teammates. Cole can impact the game way more than Rendon can. Cole can throw every pitch of the game, Rendon can not hit 1-9
Yup except in those in one or two games he has almost absolute control. Pitching wins championships Cole will sign for north of 225 million and 7 years that’s my guess.
Especially in a day in age where offense is so common and the long ball is easy to come by, Cole has been able to combat those numbers and thrive even more as offensive numbers across the league have jumped. There is no question that top tier pitching is more valuable than top tier hitting right now.
Hard not to suppress home runs when they aren’t even making contact a la 300ks.
yeah well in those two starts, he will throw at a minimum 14-15 innings with like 30 Ks, impacting the entire series, and could possibly come out of the bullpen on short rest like Bumgarner has done in the past. This is the dumbest comment ive read in a while.
Don’t forget, you take away the juiced ball as easily as it was added. Who knows what happens to that power then, with age as well.
I highly highly doubt they do much to the mound during the length of Cole’s contract.
So who has more risk there?
My prediction for Cole:
Angels – 8 years $240 million
My prediction for Rendon:
Yankees – 8 years $220 million
Yankees won’t be in on a 3B. That’s a mis-allocation of resources. They need pitching.
did Miguel Andujar and Gio Urshella just vanish?
Why would the Yankees need a 4th 3rd baseman? Having LeMahieu, Andujar, and Urshela has the position covered I think. What they need more than anything is another impact starting pitcher.
Cole
Severino
Paxton
Tanaka
Happ/German/Garcia
That is pretty, pretty, good if you ask me.
Phillies or Rangers for Rendon. Especially if Phillies want to spend stupid money. Angels seem like a good spot for Cole.
PHILLIES
BOTH
Yes please.
more of that stupid money coming? lol will probs miss the playoffs again anyways
Apples and oranges
i think they both get paid in money though
I’d sign Rendon before Cole. Huge long term contracts to pitchers rarely work out and there’s always the injury risk to pitchers.
Because it works wonderful for position players doesn’t it
Far more often then for pitchers.
Arenado is a 5 time all star though not 4
Rendon – Rangers 8yr 240m
Cole – Yankees 7yr 220m
If Rendon holds out for a 9 year offer I think he can top Cole even if not by AAV. Not inconceivable he gets signed through age 39, there is plenty of precedent when someone is considered the top position player available. Cole on the other hand needs to become the first ever 8 year contract for a pitcher or destroy the Greinke dbacks contract to top that hypothetical 9 year Rendon offer. 9/225 does beat 7/210 after all. And I don’t think either of them are limited to that number. Maybe Rendon gets 9 years 27/28 mil a year and Cole 8yeara for 30 each in which Rendon still wins. Feel like Cole will have more suitors but history is not on his side unless he breaks it. Does have a David price feel to it though
Rendon gets more years and thus a teensy bit more money overall, Cole gets the higher AAV.
I think Rendon gets 7 years/$215M or so
and
Cole gets 6 years/$201M.
I think Rendon will get more total money because his contract will be longer but Cole will have a higher AAV
I wish the Dodgers would sign Rendon. They need a consistent right handed batter. Of course, the price will be prohibitive in their eyes, so they’ll probably sign a player at one fifth of the price who strikes out 35% of the time. Sorry, I’m a sore loser and I’m a bit bitter tonight.
I would like the Dodgers to sign Cole because then they would have Buehler and Cole as big-game pitchers. Look a lot like Koufax and Drysdale for years to come
That would be nice. That’s how you build for the playoffs.
I think Cole will get more. He pitched this well in the year of the juiced ball? I think a lot of teams are going to take note of that. If the ball stays juiced the most successful pitchers will he the pitchers who’s game revolves around strikeouts (cant benefit from the juiced ball if you miss the ball entirely).
Rangers payroll is increasing with their new stadium. I think they will be involved on Rendon and one of the top starters.
All I have to say is “buyer beware” with Cole! There is no doubt that Cole’s last two seasons are great while playing on a well balanced team, however, his history of being mediocre to injuries is iffy. For some odd reason, these guys have mediocre careers then break out the last two years before they hit free agency looking to get paid and don’t live up to their contracts.
Starting pitching that can give you length, strike guys out at an incredible rate and pitch 200+ innings is an absolute premium in this modern game of baseball. Rendon is very very very good, but every single baseball team could use an ace to add to their staff, Maybe half of the league could use the upgrade at 3B, and a lot of those teams are non contenders and/or don’t spend money. So it will probably be either Milwaukee, Atlanta, Washington, or maybe even the Dodgers for his services.
I don’t see the Rangers getting Rendon. I could see them in on Cole, but not Rendon. They just drafted two 3B in the first round this year. Donaldson would make much more sense because he’ll be a good bridge to those guys on a lot shorter deal.
In addition to the obvious rebuilding and salary conscience teams, I think some teams are watching their spending this off-season: NYY, BOS, CHC ,HOU, ST and NYM.
LAD will loose Rich Hill and possibly Hyun-Jin Ryu (Scott Boros) to FA. I assume Gerrit Cole is on their radar. Boros will use the WSN and ChiSox as leverage.
I think PHI will end up with Anthony Rendon. Boros will use MIL and WSN as leverage.
Pitchers play every 5 days. I would pay Rendon.
Cole could be team altering signing big as Verlander and for longer for Dodgers. Take the 40 million Ryu and Hill are making and sign Cole.
Would the best replacement. Even better given that Cole is cheaper, better, and less hurt than Ryu and Hill.
My Guess is the Angels are going to announce Maddon as there new manager and Arte is going to want to surround Trout with the best team possible and Cole goes home and signs with the Angels. The guy grew up in Newport Beach and is a so cal guy unless one of those east coast teams like the Yankees want to overpay and blow everyone out of the water I’m guessing he goes to the Angels or maybe the Dodgers but his contract may be to rich for the Dodgers blood. I’m guessing Rendon stays in Washington don’t see the Nats letting him go.
Rendon to Anaheim. 8/265 33.125mm aav
Opt outs for 3rd,5th and 7th year mutual Option for a 9th year.
Rendon is good -but he is no Ariendo-being a Nats fan -would not go any higher on offer-first get done -use money elsewhere. 3-4 good players
This is a no brainer Cole. Hes a true ace and now of days theirs probably less then 10 in mlb. Rendon is a verly above average player his numbers say it all. A 3rd baseman with average power
Gerrite Cole. He’s a true ace and could easily fit on any team.
Cole Hamels!!?!?
Rendon’s price just went up.