Despite holding the title of reigning World Series champs, the Red Sox fell behind in the analytics and creativity departments under Dave Dombrowski, per The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey. With former Tampa Bay Rays executive Chaim Bloom wined and dined and his contract finalized, Boston appears to be back on track.
We know Bloom as one of the decision-makers credited with the innovation of the opener/piggyback strategy of pitcher deployment. The origins the the Rays innovative pitching solution, of course, trace not only to the forward-thinking group of executives in Tampa, but to a confluence of events/trends in baseball in recent seasons. Buck Showalter’s decision not to use Zack Britton in the 2015 Wild Card game shined a spotlight on the limitations of the “closer” role, and Tito Francona took the other side of the debate in showcasing Andrew Miller as a dominant fireman throughout the Indians’ 2016 World Series run. Craig Counsell and Josh Hader canonized the role in Milwaukee. Injuries (and injury-risk) also play a part, and the Rays’ limited financial resources are inextricably linked with their role as thought leaders in the MLB.
Without a clear-cut fifth starter under contract for next season (incumbent Rick Porcello is headed to free agency) the Red Sox are a fertile landscape for further use of the opener next season, per The Athletics Chad Jennings. Of course, need is only one part of the success of the opener in Tampa. It doesn’t take off without a top-ranked bullpen (by ERA) on-hand to carry the freight. The Rays relied on a core group of elite relievers like Emilio Pagan, Diego Castillo, and Nick Anderson, but they were also diligent roster curators who mixed-and-matched 30 different arms throughout the season. And as Jennings points out, the Rays were hardly starter-averse, with Charlie Morton, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow all holding traditional starter roles.
Boston’s bullpen ranked just 17th with a 4.40 ERA in 2019, but they ranked 8th with a 4.14 FIP and first overall with 10.50 K/9. They deployed the opener strategy in small doses this season out of necessity. Bobby Poyner, Josh Taylor and Travis Lakins got tastes as openers, while Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez are pen candidates to soak up chunks of innings in the follower/piggyback role. As with Andrew Friedman and the Los Angeles Dodgers, however, Bloom’s brand of roster innovation will take new shape in a much different financial landscape in Boston. Of course, the previous regime left Bloom and the Red Sox behind the eight ball with a 2020 payroll already around $224MM (per Roster Resource).
With David Price, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez on hand in the rotation, Bloom inherits a rotation that, on the surface, is eighty percent set. Still, Eovaldi and Sale are coming off injury-riddled seasons, Price is 34-year-old with over 2,000 innings on his arm, and Rodriguez is coming off his first season of more than 140 big league innings. There’s plenty of uncertainty baked into this group. With Bloom on hand, the Red Sox are better equipped to find creative alternatives in the offseason to prepare for another marathon with their AL East rivals in New York and, of course, Tampa Bay.
The Bloom hiring, in my mind, is an excellent move for Boston as they look to get under the luxury tax.
Dombrowski has to be done, right?
He’s already been fired
I think he means done done as in won’t be a GM or head of baseball operations again on any team. I’m not so sure of that.
If a team has cash to burn and prospects to trade to get a team into a WS, DD is great. If you need to build the farm, he’s not your guy.
Anyone could’ve made those trades that he made, he ain’t do nothing special.
GM’s who don’t have money and still have a great team record is a great GM, like the RAYS did this year.
What Dumbo gave up in the Sale trade anyone could’ve got that trade done. Then he over paid for a Brewers reliever with a shot up arm.
We need a GM that’s good at finding pitching prospects because that’s what we need most. We can never draft & develop great pitchers, but the RAYS do it all the time.
It is pretty easy to slam DD after the fact but he did win us a WS and 2 or 3 AL East titles. This team is not in that bad a shape as many make it out to be. This new GM better not be planning on going with an opener for Porcello’s spot though. Sox don’t have the BP arms Tampax had to do that.
He was fired in September
what if Dombrowski goes to the Rays now since Bloom went to Boston and the phillies didn’t fire klentak & Mcphail?
Tampa Bay does not have the money to empower DD’s style of GMing. He’s not a penny-pinching, low budget kind of guy.
Bloom was assistant GM at Tampa. Dombro would want a higher position.
Sale gets traded.? The Sox pull a Gonzalez/Crawford coup
Zero chance Sale moves for pennies on the dollar. Especially when teams won’t even know how his rest will affect his arm.
I do dream of another coup with LA. A Providence Journal writer imagined a few bold scenarios that got the blood moving. Packaging someone like Price with Devers for a return of young talent will hurt. But any good deal should hurt.
The difference between the Gonzalez deal and today is it would need to be more like price/sale/mookie/jd/jbj for…. xyz
It was massive in terms of salary relief, there were no cheap high upside and long control pieces being shipped out.
Boston’s incentive was a massive payroll dump, not lifting one bad contract. A bunch of semi-performing potential players were lumped around one slugger (jd could be the 1b) but they pretty much all had a high salary on the outbound side. You forget guys like beckett being dumped and only remember crawford.
As much as LA wanted gonzalez, you forget even he was making around 20m.
So if you want a 2.0 of the deal, look more at Price/JD/JBJ/eovaldi headed to LA – that’s be a similar package of talent and salary relief… not a young cheap stud like devers
I always talk about how Cashman got lightning out a bottle when he traded Miller and Chapman to teams that were desperate to win a title. Same here, the Sox dangled AGon at new Dodgers ownership at a time the owners were pressing to make a statement.
Agreed.
You actually have a similar opportunity now with JD and Mookie, and lots of gms and managers feeling some pressure to push over the top.
I think with the single trade deadline you’ll see the offseason being more like the 1st deadline, then the new single in season deadline operating more like the traditional waiver trade deadline – at least in terms of volume of activity
Would love it but After reading 5he article, I’m a,ready having seconfpd thoughts on bring him here. If the Sox become Tampa 2.0 with respect to openers and how pitchers are used, it won’t matter to me if they keep winning because I won’t be watching. Tampa games last year were not enjoyable to watch and tongue in cheek, explains why the Trop was always empty. Seriously, the sport will be losing one big fan if this happens and I doubt I’m alone. Tampa’s style might be important to fantasy players, but just sucks to watch.
I could see a Price or Sale and Betts and maybe Castillo to a team like the Braves, Padres, or Texas with some cash.
The return would have to be some mix. of 2 established players and 2 high prospects. I think Texas moves into a new stadium. The Braves are a player away from the WS. Nice warm climate. Closer to family and college surroundings for both David and Mookie.
The Sox are closer to retaining JD than they are to retaining Mookie. It may take $2 t0 3 M per year for JD if the Sox determine he wants to stay.
Cashman traded a couple months of Chapman for Torres. A year of Mookie should bring better.
The Sox need to look at their team and decide if they have a realistic chance at the WS with Price coming back from what seems like minor surgery, huge question marks with Sale and Eovaldi and no BP.
If the answer is no, what’s the downside beyond 2020? The answer is nothing. Mookie is going to become a free agent. Replenish the farm now and attempt to sign Mookie for 2021 and beyond after next year.
IMO, with the current state of the Sox pitching, 2020 is a down year. Clear as many big contracts and replenish the farm.
I agree. Makes sense. Leverage as much as you can from Mookie before he goes. Let JDM go (if he opts out) and begin to repair the BP.
Just not sure what he will actually bring back. Chapman was a closer the Cubs desperately needed. Milker was also available and Cashman leveraged both beautifully against teams whose fan bases were pressuring the teams. Not sure that happens this off season.
Dewey we won’t know for sure unless a Mookie trade is completed. The reports are the Middleton wants to win now in Philly. Atlanta is close.
Any team with a shot to contend that trades for Mookie will stoke their fans interest.
If you can’t get better than a draft pick? Keep him.but my suspicion is they will get much more than a draft pick for Mookie. He’s one of the top 3 players in baseball.
Just off top I’d put Trout Yelich and Bellinger in front of Betts. People can argue Bregman, Altuve, several others as well. Not even including the young guys like Acuna Jr and Soto. Betts is a great player. To just throw a top 3 ranking on him so nonchalantly is stretching it to say the least.
Agreed Water.
It’s someone’s opinion just like yours Frisco. Personally, I don’t measure a player that way as some abilities aren’t discovered until necessitated by team needs. Betts for example came up a second baseman but learned the outfield because his route to second was blocked by Pedie. Not many knew he would be amazing in center then. He was then moved 5o right because if JBJ. We now understand his inner strength to be the best at whatever he does (bowling for example). Players also perform differently year to year, get varied opportunities each season, play in different parks and hit against different pitching. Trout to me is the best every day player but if he were put at third base, could he handle it? Given there are eight position players, the need may never arise. I’m just trying to show how fantasy stats alone don’t determine who the best is. I hate Bergman’s arrogance, but that might be what makes him so good which can’t be denied.
Castillo is stuck. He deserves a shot but no team will pay his $10m given he’s never done in the majors and if Boston paid down the contract it would count against the tax.
Too early to give up on Sale. I see him bouncing back in 2020
The Ray’s don’t play in Tampa.
They also don’t have an apostrophe in “RAYS”!
Are you Chuck from the BH days?
The 49ers also don’t play in SF. There are numerous teams that don’t play where their name states they are from. When referencing a team, an article may use the city the team goes by. Why is it only Tampa Bay that fans get their tighties in a wad about this?
My guess is because it comes from other fans in other areas saying Tampa doesn’t support their team – both in terms of fan attendance and stadium quality.
The response is, stadium isn’t our fault, and, driving location etc make it not Tampa residents fault for not heading there
The Warriors dont play in Golden State. California hasn’t been golden for years.
Price needs to go. Trade Betts and make them take Price too.
A comment where someone suggest trading Betts is a dumb comment
Ignorance
There’s plenty of arguments to trade Betts. It’s a risk either way. He is 100% going to free agency so no extension is possible. He’s already noted that he holds the business side in high regard, which likely means you have an equal chance to sign him if you trade him. He’s going to cost $30 mil and if they truly are aiming to get below the luxury threshold, he would return a nice ML ready/prospect few.
Honesty though, I see the Betts trade, along with JBJ, to hinge heavily on JD’s decision to stay or go. If he leaves, good chance Betts stays. If JD stays, there’s a better chance Betts goes.
Either way, hardly a “dumb” comment. A dumb comment would be “Yesss, we just signed (anyone) to 12 years $400 mil.” Or “I’m excited about Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo next year.”
You’re going to have to get used to it because until someone in the Red Sox front office comes out and says “we’re not trading Mookie Betts” he’s going to be the most talked about high asset trade in baseball.
The Sox are looking to cut payroll and Mookie is about to cost a lot at an age where teams will start asking if a seriously long term signing is worth it. To not talk about him as a trade is a bit of a joke at this point.
At an age where you have to consider if it’s worth it? He just turned 27 a week ago…this isn’t Pujols or Cabrera. It’s an elite, 5-tool talent that’s on the front end of his prime. His game should age quite nicely. Even if he loses a step toward the the final years of the deal you don’t have to worry much about transitioning him defensively because he’s already in an OF corner, and because of the power he can move from a table setter at the top of the lineup to a run producer in the middle. even if he signed a 12 year deal he wouldn’t even be 40 at the end of it. And this is baseball- you overpay at the end to lock in all of the prime
Thats the old way of thinking…. teams aren’t that interested in a back end overpay to get some prime anymore, and that’s a huge gripe of the MLBPA. 5 years ago? Sure. Today? Such deals are few/far between.
The new sheriff in town, Bloom, has never been part of a management team with the resources to behave like that. But then again, he’s been part of a culture that constantly succeeds WITHOUT doing those long term overpay for underperforming asset at the end type deals.
Mookie is about business. I expect that business leads him outside boston.
Um, the most “talked about high asset in baseball” is and would be Cole, not Betts.
LOL. Onsidering all the chatting this year about Pedie’s contract which is for a fraction of what Mookie’s AAV will be. There is always a risk when discussing long deals.
If you’re going to quote me then please quote everything and don’t edit. I said trade asset..
Not sure it’s so “old” when you consider that just last year Machado got $300/10 and Harper got $330/`13. If the wrapping is shiny enough and the bows are bright, some little-boy GM will grab the gift…
A dumb comment is one where someone suggests that trading Betts is a dumb comment.
Yes sounds like a deal the Braves could absorb. Price and Betts for several good prospects.
100% agree!
I am fine with trading Price but trading Mookie BETTER bring back TOP END SP talent.
Bloom is a good choice but we shall see if he can actually make good decisions on his own going forward. Boston has some roster & payroll issues to work thru. I expect Bloom to make some decisions/trades that will not be initially popular with Red Sox fans.
Just going to be some pain to get things back to normal. Back to healthy status. Live high on the hog for a couple of years and it’ll cost at some point. Let’s get it over with in 2020. 2021 should be right back in the saddle and going for it. It’s like getting out of debt for a person. Lots of restaurants and new clothes but pain for a couple of years paying all that off and eating at home.
I certainly like his resume. The Yale grads are the new fad. He had good ideas in Tampa, I do expect this to be a reset year and that won’t be popular with Red Sox fans.
what was 2019?
I know the rays did it, but a bullpen driven game just isn’t smart. I don’t believe any analytics on this at all. You have to have a long string of pitchers all having a good day to win a game every 5th day. Vs basically 1-3 guys pitching well. To me, I’d like to see a 6 man rotation where day 5 is a combo of 2 of those starting pitchers ideally lefty and a righty with different approaches pitching majority of the game if not all of it. To me, seems like that would take a lot of taxing off both starters and bullpen
I bet you also think the world is flat and that vaccines cause autism.
I’m curious if the opener strategy will still work with the new rule changes for rosters. I believe the new roster rule will limit the bullpen to only 13 and that may not be enough arms to use the opener strategy.
I think the opener works fine of your starters get past the 4th or 5th innings. Many times last year the Sox didnt.
If you have SP getting through 6 2/3, or 7 1/3 innings, then your pen isn’t out there as often. 13 arms is fine if 4 are durable SP, two LRP, and 7 are RP when those 4 can grind out 6,7 or 8 IP per start
But you won’t have four SP’s who can get through 6 2/3 or 7 1/3 innings any more. Not when everyone has to throw 100 mph to compete these days.
Nobody has to throw 100 to win. Lots of guys like Sabathia, Wainwright,etc figure out how to pitch later and do fine without that speed. If you can’t figure out how to pitch at minimum 6 innings almost every start you shouldnt be a starter. If throwing that hard was such an advantage pitchers would blow hitters away instead of throwing 100 pitches in 5 innings bc they are afraid of hitters.
How many relievers did the Rays carry this year?
Alot. 🙂 Because that’s what it takes from here on out. Starters won’t be going much more than 5 IP on a regular basis any more. That’s the new normal.
We agree. A team needs a few guys that can go 3 innings or 2 innings on a regular basis
100 percent agree with your first half, disagree with the back half. Pitchers don’t need more rest, they need to be taught how to throw 125 pitches and pitch 7, 8, and sometimes even 9 innings if they want to be called an ace. When athletes are supposed to be better trained and stronger pithing is weaker and weaker.
FYI to the writer- it was the 2016 Wild Card game that Showalter didn’t use Britton. Not 2015.
i dont think the Red Sox (and i wolnt say DD, because he did just bulid a championship team not a year ago) failed simply due to lacking creativity or analytical thinking. it doesn’t take analytics to realize you dont have the money to upgrade your rotation or bullpen.
No but analytics cuts down all the wasted money on Other players who don’t deserve their pay
Who was making big money on the RS who didn’t deserve to play? Also, it’s pretty rare to have all players perform to expectation. Some of them are going to go limp. And nobody can foresee that and avoid those “misspent” dollars. Only 20/20 hindsight can tell you who those guys are. Well, unless you’re talking about someone like Panda. But I don’t think the Sox have any Pandas these days.
He said ‘didn’t deserve their pay’, not ‘didn’t deserve to play’. Big difference.
Price and Pearce come to mind..
Pearce was rewarded for 18 and was never worth on face value what he got. DD at the time likely thought $13m total for a first base platoon that combined would deliver and have GG defense late in the game. Injuries happen but if combined, they produced 30 HRS, 110 ribbies, would anyone have complained? Injuries decimated the position unfortunately.
It doesnt take analytics to see they have already committed top dollar in the rotation and in 2019 it way underperformed. A bad rotation overextends an ok bullpen. They dont need to upgrade either, they need the starters making $80 plus M to show up. If they arent going to be better, you might as well fail and accept your fate.
It will be interesting to see how many of the 2018 holdovers get dumped after a season where they were injured or under-performed. Candidates include Pearce, Leon, Velasquez, Johnson, Hembree, Bradley, Barnes, and Moreland. With Porcello and (finally) Sandoval coming off the payroll, the Sox may be able to upgrade and still bring the payroll down. I’m afraid Holt may have to go too, unless the Sox are ready to make him a regular.
Interesting? …all those guys are gone.
Also, Holt was never a regular player.. did not have that ability. But some other team might pay him like one and try to plug him into a hole at second base or short.
As far as the relievers you mentioned some might stick but the Sox definitely need Bullpen reinforcements.
Yeah, interesting. You said “all” of those guys are gone, then suggested that that “all” won’t be gone. Holt averaged 500 ABs in the two seasons when he wasn’t injured, meaning he was a regular.. Good analysis there, Sparky. .
I believe he meant holt wasn’t a traditional starter – same position, 95% of the time.
That was tried with him, some years past, and production dropped.
Holt is at his best (production wise), and most valuable to the team (roster wise) as a super sub that plays just about every position except pitching and catching. Filling in injuries and giving off days seems to be his strength, and, he typically grades replacement level or better at most of those spots. That’s his value, and for some reason, he seems to have better at bats doing it
Not to pick nits but he averaged 500 PA, not ABs (450)
Also, Holt’s history had been he gets tired and tails off. In 19, he started off on the injured list.
Mookie is gone by the end of 2020 or sooner. It’s a no brainer.
Exactly. With how the Red Sox are set up for 2020, meaning not challenging for a championship, only a fool does not trade him. It’s the most obvious thing in the history of mankind. He is walking at the end of next season !! Don’t you think it’s smart to get something for him now? Perhaps with a little research at the trading deadline next summer at the very latest?
Do you want to be the Oklahoma City Thunder or the Golden State Warriors as it relates to Kevin Durant free agency? The Thunder get zero. The Warriors wind up with D’Angelo Russell.
It depends on the offer. Remember 2013? No one expected a championship. Even right now, Washington loses Harper and here they are. The point is you never know and as another poster said already, if the team gets value out of the starters, they will contend even if Blake Sweihart comes back to play right field…Well maybe not that…
They should DFA Bradley and promise JDM the everyday LF job if he doesn’t exercise his option. They can then use a rotating DH and get a better idea of what the younger position players can do.
The only way the Red Sox can get underneath the luxury tax is to basically give up on next year. They would be better off giving it one more shot with the core players they have now and then work on a rebuild. If the wheels come off then they can trade Mookie and JDM at the deadline to get some prospect value back.
Terrible idea to play JD on the field
And DFA Bradley? Surely they can trade him for something.
I’m not sure about that. It’s possible they could get something for Jackie Bradley, but at 11 million bucks he might be a difficult move. Best might be 2 DFA him. It’s going to take a lot of work.
Agree, JD is a DH. That’s it. JBJ has value, He won’t bring a team a haul but a decent arm or two plus clearing money helps
I always liked jackie.
Unfortunately, the most you get for him is probably an unheralded consistent if unspectacular reliever, coupled with maybe a class a prospect or 2 depending on whether you want one ok prospect or 2 lottery tickets.
Problem there is, that has possibly less value if any sort of MiLB retraction happens
I’d call Jackie and offer 3 years $21M or 4 $26 or something in that range. He knows he isn’t getting more than that as a free agent so he could take it. JBJ gets a good number for him and his family and gets to stay. Boston gets a lower, more appropriate AAV and keeps a GG CF who is a bottom of the order bat. Everybody wins.
Look at who his agent is, then you’ll know why it won’t happen
Everyone said that about Bogaerts too. Agents are just agents, players make the final decision.
rmulling2- I like it, good post.
I don’t like the idea of holding Mookie for the deadline. You would have to hold JD until after June i5 if you extend him which is the drop dead date for a FA to require a Draft Pick compensation and to be traded.
If you dangle Mookie through the Winter Meetings and/ or up to the start of Spring T.—JD may sign elsewhere and you would have the money to sign Mookie. If Mookie won’t sign trade him to Atlanta or to X,Y,Z for all you can get.
We all know pitching is really the name of the game. That being said sign Cole and Bum–let the other two( Mook & JD) go. Then sign the best closer Chapman for ridiculous money and begin building the BP from back to front
Good grief.
1. JD cannot play in the OF on a regular basis. He will hurt the team defensively, and he will get hurt and then not help the team with his bat.
2. Why DFA JBJ? Why not trade him if you want value in return?
1. JD played a grand total of 35 games as a DH in his career before signing with the Red Sox. The idea that he would get hurt by playing the OF has no foundation in reality.
2. You cannot trade a player who will be making more money than he is worth and expect to get back value. The best you are likely to do is get somebody else’s bad contract.
A nice long-term move would be move both JD and Mookie for a mix of young mlb-ready and high-upside prospects. Maybe mix eovaldi in with one.
Take the 50+ mil/yr (or 70 with eovaldi) you save and bring back holt, add 2 nice BP arms.
Take a run at a short term deal with encarnacion or donaldson depending on the market if you really need the bat.
Extend devers and benintendi while the pre-arb and low early arb years let you spread out and lower the aav of the deal for the former, and the down year lowers value of the latter. Get some cost certainty.
They will be undefeated next year. You don’t need talent, you need analytics. Here we go!
Lolol Right on!
Aaaaaanndddd another article extolling the virtues of a mathlete coming to the rescue of a franchise. Lol Isn’t Andrew Friedman a huge proponent of analytics? And has it broken their 30-year championship drought? Uh, no.
I thought Gabe Kapler was going to be an analytic mastermind and lead the Phillies to multiple championships, too! And my team, the Yankees, are as analytically inclined as any, and they haven’t won diddly in 10 years. Let’s relax before declaring Bloom the executive of the century, ok? Smh
I don’t think Kapler’s analytic style fit with the phillies, now with Girardi’s style it might work.
Does anyone else hate that MLB sold its’ sole to the networks, more so than any other sport. While the NBA and NHL become more defense driven in the playoffs (especially the NHL), baseball’s schedule allows roster decisions to change each round. All this talk after a rainout in the Astros-Yankees series meNt four games in four days and how the teams would handle such a radical situation when such is the norm during the regular season. Charlie O. was the first that I can recall to use a pinch running specialist but now the change fro regular season to post just makes me want to puke.
I think the big deal with the Yanks-Stros rainout was that the Stros got to skip their bullpen day and go right back to Verlander-Cole.
Yes but that can happen anytime, regular season or in the playoffs. Check out the 75 Series. I recall back to back rainouts that allowed Boston to bring back a Tiant earlier than expected. Such was caused by Mother Nature and was not a pre-planned scheduling decision that is not consistent with how the year long season was played.
Excluding kapler, who doesn’t really make roster decisions, how relevant in the post-season have the other two been?
You conveniently leave out the astros, one of the most analytic teams in MLB.
As and Rays have been relevant playoff participants despite near bottom league payrolls year in and out.
Face it, most of the usual playoff contenders have been analytic focused. With the shift in that direction, if you don’t keep up you work out of a hole at a disadvantage to other teams.
Baltimore was analytically challenged. Most teams that tanked are nearing the ability to be contenders again by the number of years that passed in baltimore. They’re still years away.
That all says something.
Well, while “most of the usual playoff contenders have been analytic focused” may be true, most don’t win WS rings and that was the point the commenter made. Analytics may make you competitive and that could very well be all. In the end you still need to develop stars, make good trades, and leverage good FA deals to win WS. And those aren’t all mastered by analytics.
You also need some luck – like that bounce in the OF hit in the WAS/LA game, without that you’re not seeing the nationals in the WS.
Gotta get hot at the right time, a little luck, some good managing (think of how managers have blown series by removing pitchers too early or late)…
Takes lots to get you there
And if analytic teams generally fare better as far as reaching the post season (true) then as more teams embrace that operating structure it’s harder for a analytic-poor team to crash the party.
So, in that manner of speaking, if you don’t embrace the movement you’re probably going to be stuck outside looking in.
Bloom is a great hire but does the BoSox ownership have the patience for it?
I’m guessing the ownership has the patience, since patience would save them money. But the fans have gotten appetite for WS victories and I don’t think they’ll be too patient.
I would say ownership showed a lack of patience with DD and Cherington. Hard to see them doing anything different. If Bloom has come in to make a big change to operating more analytically it will require a lot of patience.
It wasn’t impatience with cherington and donbrowski.
Cherington wasn’t consistent. Look at his team’s and it seemed he just kept tearing down and rebuilding constantly – he took a balanced young team of hitters/good pitching, then tore up the pitching to have good hitting and inconsistent pitching, and had one year of lightning in a bottle after the marathon bombing. Worst/first/worst/middling… he couldn’t find a true core he wouldn’t touch and just stick with it.
Now DD, I think ownership was disappointed in the last offseason and his loyalty to the prior years players beyond prioritizing team needs. I think the pierce/eovaldi deals pushed the boundaries and the way the sale extension looks now, in the wake of one of the worst seasons in his career, was a nail in the coffin. Ownership wanted under the tax and to have a younger core with prearb player savings – something DD has a hard time developing
Fair enough but ownership did ok the deals for Eovoldi, Sale etc.
They better have the patience because they put out the edict to cut salary and get under the salary cap.
Of JD opts out, it isnt that difficult to get under $208 and still be competitive for the wild card atleast. Hope he does us that favor. We will miss his bat but can still be a good offense without it.
Joe the patience runs out when the team payroll is 240M and you miss the playoffs.
Trading, or rather not keeping one of the top 5 players in MLB is absurd. Trade Mookie for what, 5 prospects…most prospects turn out to be suspects…Lars Anderson, Brian Rose, Sueng Song, Craig Hansen, Steve Lomasney…and Rusney just to name a few Bosox suspects.
Hopefully JD opts out. Did I read someone suggests he play 1b…hell no…have you watched him fumble around the outfield. He can hit, he is no Ortiz. JD very replaceable.
So you’re just going to watch Mookie walk out the door next November? Watching Mookie patrol the Outfield and hit 320 for a fourth-place team in the American League East?
Your suggesting he is going to play next year for the Blue Jays?
You’ve got the Red Sox higher than fourth?
Absolutely. This year they skipped spring training which led to a terrible April and hurt starting pitching all year. Then because of that they were out and didnt compete the final few weeks and still won mid 80s as an absolute disaster. Only way they finish below Toronto and Baltimore is if they totally blow things up.
JD is not opting out. He’ll never get that much money again. The rare scenario that people make up like the White Sox or someone needing a DH is too big a gamble.
Imho,
VinnyH
Scott boras says otherwise, and JD already said he’s going to follow the advice of his agent.
No matter what, JD gets 2.5m this year from boston.
Beyond that, he can make an additional 21.25m to play in 2020 in boston, 19m for 2021, and 19m for 2022.
So, if he thinks he can make 20m per year for 3 years, JD comes out ahead by opting out.
Vinny, I agree. 23.75 M for a DH is overpaying. Maybe after this year but which team is going to pay more?
If you think Boras hasn’t figured out the market and already knows if someone is willing to pay more then you are gullible. We will know five days after the World Series if someone is willing to pay more if someone is he opts out simple as that.
Bruin, the history on Boras in the last few years is he doesn’t figure out the market. Its why he held out JD when the Sox were trying to sign him. DD called his bluff and he signed with Boston.
If there’s a team that wants to pay him more than 23.75 next year, it will be a surprise. Is a team willing to pay him over 20M when he’s 35? I doubt it. Not when so many players are hitting 30 home runs per year.
As said above, with an opt out JD carries away 2.5m this year.
So the remaining contract JD seeks to beat is 21.25/19/19 over 3 yrs, except boston has a potential out for year 5.
You can bet if 3yr/60m is on the table JD jumps ship. Even though it’s barely an increase it still makes year 3 fully guaranteed.
Now, 2 things likely happen – 1) jd is going to attempt to renegotiate with sox for an extension, and hopefully Chain doesn’t bite.
2)jd probably opts out to test the market.
AtlSF if you agree he’s a DH or a year away, that leaves out the NL. NYY and Angels don’t need a DH. Neither does Houston. Who would give him 3/60 with a QO attached?
He will most likely opt out. Money will be close but Boston most likely wont compete over his final 3 years
Doesn’t even necessarily need to be 3/60… other things could be attractive, even 4/75 or who knows.
As far as teams go, well, let’s walk through.
Aside from roster or payroll, eliminate NYY – cubs being the the other tax paying team – that won’t want to give their 2nd and 5th picks up. CLE, TB, HOU have payroll issues
Not to say there wouldn’t be NL interest if the OF market goes bare, but I really like the Twins as a surprise pick. (Ignore the CWS wanting to be relevant)
Yes, they have Cruz but he’s going into his age 40 season.
MN also has a gaping hole in RF that, if you believe in sticking JD out once in a while and crossing your fingers, is a giant upgrade with the bat out there.
If Cruz drops off (or retires) you have an heir apparent plus a mentor.
MN also spent the 131m in payroll last season, has 47m committed to 2020, and made some postseason revenue. I think they’re a good fit.
I’m just saying if JDM opts out he is signing a higher contract that Boras has already worked out. He may have a missed the market on a few free agent contracts but highly doubt he lets someone like JDM walk away from a lucrative contract unless he has already determined that he can get more.
I dunno. Boras is not always right in his reading the market for his player..
Francona gets too much credit for ‘innovating’ in the 2016 playoffs. He only used Miller like he did becuace Cody Allen was already installed as “The Closer’. If Allen hadn’t been on the team I’m sure Miller would have served as a traditional closer.
He shouldn’t get credit he should get blame. He overused Miller in games when they had a big lead and by the end of the World Series he was shot.
Revisionist history. Miller pitched in 10 post-season games that year. You could argue that he was overused, but the leads he came in with were 2-1-2-1-2-3-3-0-3 and then in game 7 they were down 2.
Look, every team uses analytics. One team wins the WC. That means 29 teams fail. Talent, performance, management decisions, information, umpiring, luck, randomness, all impact results. It’s amazing how many fans know what will happen next. I wonder why they even watch sports at all since they already know the outcome.
Marlins in last place of the NL East. I know the outcome, so, I don’t watch the marlins.
Wined and dined and sixty-nined.
No one is going to trade for Sale. He isn’t going anywhere. Teams will not believe he’s healthy and with the contract he has the only way a team might trade for him is IF the Red Sox eat most if not all of it. Price wouldn’t bring anything so the only player that leaves is Betts, which would bring in a decent haul. All depends if ownership wants full rebuild mode or not
Being the guy who created the opener should be embarrassing. It scares me that we will intentionally try that lame strategy. I get it in an odd circumstance when you’ve hit a run of bad luck and have a game to cover but planning for it is just awful.
People hate the opener/bullpenning, but, don’t really complain anywhere close to as loud about a bullpen game in the playoffs. Seems contradictory
I hate them both. Managers feel they have to get cute in the playoffs now. Look how well Corbin is doing out of the pen but lets not go with actual starters and relievers.