Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.
By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.
While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.
Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.
The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.
For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.
Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?
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If him I’m opting out. No reason to leave 100-120 million left on the table. IMO
Im glad Google logs you in and makes commenting easy but it does not work for your brain, you actually have to use that with effort to make it work. You are assuming with confidence he will walk into 200-220M??? Darvish just got 125M and for some reason a guy that has not thrown for 200 innings in a season just magically is worth 100M more?
Good like with your life my man…
He instructed Boras to complete an extension with the Nats. Strasburg clearly wants to stay in DC. Maybe he uses his opt out to ask for another year or two tacked on, but emotionally he seems attached.
Exactly what I think will happen.
With time left on the previous deal. The only team that concerns me, as a Nationals fan, is the Padres. Strasburg is a San Diego kid and him returning home is the only team that I see him leaving for. Next season he’s either a National or a Padre. Anything else would legitimately surprise me
Money talks
angels!
The Angels training staff would break his elbow in less than a week. If he opts out, I see the Padres over paying him. 5/130.
Would you opt out to get a 1yr 30M maybe added to the contract? There is obviously the risk that his LONG injury list of injury issues and draft pick comp that you are wrong. Odds are if he is healthy when the four years complete he gets 30M anyway making take that risk silly. The Padres are not going to win a ring anytime soon, Nats probably will not either, all that said if you believe you are one of the best pitchers of your time would you really want to walk away from playoff and maybe World Series games that could cement you place in history for a 30M you likely get anyway?
He could easily sign with the Angels
This was 3 years ago, things can change.
I think what happens with Rendon will be a factor.
He’s a fine pitcher, but looking at his injury history and the way the market has gone for pitchers lately, he’d be a fool to opt out. He’s poised to make $100 million over the next 4 years, including a whopping $45 million in 2023. I can’t see him passing that up.
Spot on
The fact that 45 mil of the 100 is not a point in his contracts favor. Having it backloaded is a negative for the player
The pitchers who haven’t received big contracts in free agency recently are guys whit bad peripherals who’s best days are behind them. Patrick Corbin got 6/$140 without having nearly as good a track record as Strasburg. Guys like Strasburg and Cole will have no problem getting big contracts this offseason
Stephen Strasburg is not a “fine” pitcher, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball
If by “best” you mean one of the top 20 starting pitchers, I agree wholeheartedly, but if you think he’s one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball, you’re crazy.
He’s in the top dozen or so, easily top 15 and can certainly make case for him near end of a top 10
I think he opts out and tries to grab on another contender. Several are starved for pitching and it could turn into a bidding frenzy. He could squeeze $30-40 million extra! It will be interesting to say the least.
Strasburg isn’t a chase the money kind of guy. He instructed Scott Boras to work out an extension with the Nationals with over a year left on his previous contract just to remain in DC.
That’s what a lot of people thought would happen to Corbin and Keuchel last off-season and you see how that turned out. Corbin got a big deal but not as high and as much of a bidding war as people thought. And with Cole the premiere arm on the market, Strasburg would be playing 2nd fiddle.
Corbin got what people thought, in fact based on fangraphs crowd sourcing he got more than people expected. I actually see Strasburg as a similar level FA as Corbin, he’s older but with a much better track record coming off a terrific season..He might not get the 6th year but 5 years/120 million if not a bit more seems fair
One of the things I think about… Since he’s NOT a rookie anymore, since he would have a qualifying offer attached, since he has an injury history, since the market (and the game in general) are rapidly changing, is it worth risking $100M to sign for an extra $20M at the risk of being “this season’s Keuchel?
No mention of the fact that 70mil of his contract is differed from 2024-2030 with no interest? That has to play a role here, being paid 10mil a year for 7 years based in 2016 dollars.
Exactly. He’ll opt out for restructuring alone.
I like that! You’re done playing and still collecting a check, win win
Pensions are good!
It’s not a pension it’s being paid based on 10 year old dollar values, it’s not a good deal for anyone but the Nationals.
So is he vested on any of the deferred money?
Or does it go away if
he opts out? If it does,
then it would seem he
has been underpaid on
this contract…..
I think like 30 mil is in the deferred bank so far, which he will not lose.
Did you just pull that out of thin air? This is a completely false statement.
Someone will pay him especially since he has learned to pitch. Don’t mean that disrespectful but he reminds me of Grienke who has made terrific adjustments. With all the deferred $$$ he will opt out and maybe re-sign but with better terms.
Strasburg will be leaving at least $20MM on the table if he doesn’t opt out. $25MM AAV is below market value for a top 5 Ace SP.
I hope he opts out! I would love to see him and Cole both go to the Angels! I know it is not likely, but man I want Trout to get a shot at the playoffs. That would be a nice rotation to have Cole, Straburg, and Ohtani in 2020
October Trout! We all want it but unfortunately the Angels have the worst training staff in the history of baseball and an arm like Strasburg would break off under Halo care. They are doomed to keep wasting our Trout days just like the Giants wasted most of our Bonds days.
At least Bonds has one World Series showing while in Giants uniform. Trout has never tasted such a glory.
I initially said he keeps the current deal due to recent struggles of starting pitchers over 30 to get those huge deals of years past. But I completely forgot about that deferred money. Even if he takes a little less AAV he still comes out ahead if it isn’t deferred. I think he opts out.
I think he opts out but stays with the Nats. Just tacking on anither year and 25 million and maybe restructuring the deferred money portion.
Think the nats really need to do what they can to keep him. Payroll shouldnt be an issue with a lot coming off the books this year
So glad the bats avoided the Bryce pit so they can be a player on the market for keeping Strasburg and maybe adding Moose when Rendon leaves for the Yankees or Red Sox.
If he opts out, is his ERA something the Nationals might mention during negotiations? His WAR is great, but ERA is 3.56 compared to 3.14 for his career.
Ball is juiced this year so a 3.56 ERA might be better.
Strasburg has been hurt in ALMOST every season he has played. Any team that goes to look at this guy, should know that “health” issues will be of concern. For Strasburg to get a Cole type of contract, that team would have to be desperate. Who knows if Strasburg can stay on the mound all season? Is that a risk teams are willing to take for a huge contract that Boras would want for him? Strasburg has no credits to him. There are no CY Young awards or World Series championship. Just known health issues.
With that said, I’d take my current contract for this year and try to remain healthy for another year. Just to get a better contract the following year. 2 healthy seasons in a row is enough argument to get a nice contract, compared to one full healthy season and plenty of injuries in the past. Boras biggest challenge is the injuries and no credits for Strasburg. Just keep the contract and stay healthy for another year.
Does he have another opt out after next season? If so, your comment might be the best suggestion I’ve seen so far.
PEOPLE: this is the Lerner family we’re talking about!!! Either there’s no extension, or it’s an extension of $1/year for the next 20M years.
Strasburg is in the drivers seat on this one, he can do whatever he wants, he might be the best number 2 in baseball. I think he stays in Washington. Nats could be a tough out in the playoffs this year.
Look at his stats; Strasburg is a top 5 pitcher in the game this year. He’s clearly a #1.
Sox need to pay him what he wants
He should opt out and restructure his deal the way Kershaw did. Stay with the Nationals.