Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.
While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.
Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.
It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.
The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.
Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.
Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?
(Poll link for app users)
Better than Manny
Other way around manny is better then Harper
What stats are you looking at? Harper has him beat in EVERY catagory this year..
B. Could have been a little better but still an overall solid season. Harper is no where near the reason why Philly missed the playoffs
C+. He did alright, but with a contract that large, you’d think he would be something spectacular. It’s only year 1, so more success is coming. I think an A is not even on the radar, and a B is being too generous.
I laugh at the people who talk about how big his contract is……25 mil per year….There are 13 people in the league making more money than him. Just because his contract is 13 years doesn’t mean he is making more money than others. There are people out there who will sign new contracts in the next 10 years that will put his contract to shame. Who would you rather have, Harper making 25mil or Pujols making 28mil? Right now he is the 13th highest paid player in the league, i bet in 10 years he wont even be in the top 50.
It’s about exactly what they paid him for. I’m sure they’re a little disappointed he didn’t have another elite year but he certainly performed as well as anyone could expect.
Last I checked which was like 4 days ago this year was his 3rd best year. It’s not unreasonable to think that this is the normal Harper.
I’d say they’d have to be disappointed considering he was shopped by Boras as a franchise game-changing elite player who will put the team over the top. Yet another bill of goods sold to a sucker. Yet people on here get roasted for talking bad about Boras. The man is a liar or delusional that’s my problem with him. If your team wants to sign a player to 13 years good. It’s a huge risk, one that most GMs aren’t willing to take because most GMS have access to the internet or have good memories.
If your team needs to sign a player for 300 mil plus million just to make the playoffs not win in playoffs they did a poor job building their team and probably shouldn’t have signed him in the first place. And if your team the following year still needs improvements which could cost 40 mil more annually than it’s a colossal failure.
He has been really good this year. Now the guy hitting behind him(Hoskins) has been awful.
Looks like he posted his usual slightly better than mediocre numbers to me. What’s there to complain about?
Good one
According to fangraphs war it was his 3rd best season.
His numbers are not bad if you dont look at his contract. But he was never worth that money
Exactly! Numbers alone I give him a B…factor in his contract and anything less than a top 5 MVP finish is a C at best.
B+, if you told me at the start of the year he’d be the 3rd best player on the team behind Realmuto and Nola, I’d believe it. He deserves a lot of credit for working on his defense and staying healthy this year, two things that had really sapped his potential in the past. This is pretty much the lower-end of the Harper the Phillies gave a long term deal to. He’s only a halfstep away from being back to MVP form again. Phillies need another masher to extend that lineup and protect him, Rendon rejoining him would take the Phillies to the next level.
Not so sure that this is the “lower end of Harper” as this is about the average/normal production he will provide over the next 10 years. He may have seasons that well exceed this year, but not many. His defense is definitely a plus in this story. Not sure he sill get to MVP with names like Yellich, Bellinger , Acuna, etc. but – that consistent .900 OPS will last.
That’s pretty much what Phily expected though, right? A constant 4 WAR guy who has a couple 6-8 seasons in him? He needed to work on his defense and health and he exceeded expectations in those things. The bat will play better if Hoskins wasn’t bad and if they improve the offense at 3B, SS, CF. Losing Cutch really hurt them more than we realized, as it impacted Harper too.
Great Point his health is something he needed to work on and get straightened out. We tend forget about that.
His bat would be a lot better if he didn’t try to hit the right field upper deck with every swing.
The guy has way too much talent and work ethic to consistently hit around .250 while routinely looking terrible against left handers. He destroys bad pitches middle in. I can’t tell you how many times I saw him have no chance on pitches away and then the catcher tried to trick him in and another stat gets handed to Harper. The guy is so great, how many times has he played in the post season? Oh, btw, Washington will be playing more than 162 games without him.
He did better than I expected but far below his salary level. Money could have been better spent. The real question is what is he like in years six to thirteen of the contract. I’d put my money on this being like the Pujols contract
This whole “salary level” thing varies from person to person. In the owners/media-that-run-by-owners eyes, he’d have to win 5 triple crowns to “earn” the money. But being that the owners make so much money, having an all-star-but not top 10 guy is good enough for that money when you consider the profits being made. Honestly most players should be making 10x more than they are, just based on profits alone. The owners would rather have that money go to them, so they influence the media that they own to spin it the other way, the “youre playing baseball for a living, youll get what youre given” line that fans eat up, because a lot of delusional fans also played the game at some point, and therefore feel that they can also do this “job”.
Same ol’ Strike Four.
But he wasn’t an all-star. Amongst qualifying outfielders his OPS is sixteen., his home runs twelfth and his batting average 34th. Could thePhillies have gotten more for their money?
The profit argument is irrelevant as clubs operate under salary restrictions which have penalties if you exceed them.
Long term contracts rarely work out as there are way too many things that can go wrong. Also, we are noting an earlier drop off in players performance than thirty or more years ago. As I said before, the real test of this contract comes later. Will the contract hinder the Phillies come 2024 and later? Will the Phillies be competitive over the life of the contract?
Very well said
Nice season. Terrible K.
He is so overrated and that is why the Nationals passed and Philadelphia was blinded and overwhelmed by the media. Philadelphia is going to have to live with this for years to come.
Washington also positioned themselves with an outfielder that was set to take over at a fraction of the cost, and arguably more productive than Harper. They also had a prospect on the cusp of making an impact on the team, and in terms of WAR, Robles has been more valuable than Harper.
Look I know he’s a good player, but seriously, is there a bigger tool on the planet than Bryce Harper? He seems like a caricature of the ultimate bro dreamed up at a frat house kegger.
Derek Dietrich may be the biggest tool in the game.
@ahale224. Truth
I have to agree there. Who wants to root for that guy? Clearly he will not live up to expectations but it’s likely his normal season over the next few years. I doubt the Phillies were expecting much more. Maybe he would get better if they put a mirror in center field so he could watch himself during the game. Seriously though, he deserves some credit for improving his horrible defense from last year. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
Bryce did a very good job all in all.
He started out slow , but first year with a new team, moving to a new city with a pregnant wife, new baby, IMO
Bryce will silence the Na-Sayers next season with a MVP performance and carry the phillies back into October baseball.
A. Phillies got exactly what they paid for. It’ll be 29 home runs and .282 averages from here on out until 2044 when the contact expires.
I doubt he ever hits .282 again
I give him a grade of……..meh.
Same stats as last year but with lower walks. Phillies got what they paid for. Grade B.
Yes, same exact stats as last year when he was voted an all star………all start voting is all about how well you start the season, not where you finish. I remember a Philly named Paul Byrd making the all start team. All star team is so overrated, show me your year end stats.
It is misguided to only view his performance through the lens of his salary; if you continue to think that way for the next 12 years, then, yea, you’ll never be able to see his stats for what they are–more than productive. For a big-market team like the Phils, 25 mil for a player/marketing icon is a worthwhile investment and it has successfully drummed up interest in the on-field product. Ya’ll love to say he’s not WORTH it, as if that WORTH is coming directly from your paycheck every time he steps up to the plate. He IS worth it because, unlike the Braves with Acuna and the Nats with Soto, the Phillies do not have the young, stud, perennial MVP player to produce. They had to look to the FA market, they could easily afford to do so, and here we are. Now, the FO just has to be a bit more savvy in under-the-radar signings (hopefully a Lance Lynn-type deal finds its way to Philly this winter, but I’m not gonna hold my breath), and trades, and with a more well-rounded club and some protection in that lineup, his numbers will be even better. Yea, it took a turn for the worse this year and it is severely frustrating, but that’s not on Bryce and his contract will not prevent the franchise from doing what it needs to do to keep up with ATL and WAS
The only thing that really matters is that your team wins a World Series. Teams play to win. I will watch games that I have no interest in the outcome. But, I am only interested in how my team performs. The Phillies aren’t going to win WS with just Harper.
$25 million a year isn’t bad. It $25 million a year for 13 years is beyond stupid.
They signed Harper to put them over the top. He is supposed to put them in the playoffs and bring them multiple rings. So, the manager will get fired. And they are not any closer to the WS? For the dollars spent, he is a bit of a bust.
Vince: Harper may have put the Phillies over the top if our idiot GM didn’t, for the second year in a row, put his faith in three starting pitchers who mostly suck.
Harper is a Philly kind of player. Gives 100% all the time. Not afraid to get his hands or uniform dirty. Hits for power with a great OBP. Throws in some speed and has a great arm in RF.
Give me two or three more of that type of player and I’ll be very happy.
Bruce Harper did a great job this season, he batted for power, had a lot of RBI’s, he played great defense and he hustled all the Time. He easily gets a B+. You can not blame him for Phillies downfall, why? The Direction of this Team trust a rotation where the only realizables SP where Nola, and In the first half Efflin. This Team has to invest in another Ace to complement Nola, so They can a true punch of 1, 2 Aces, I think it could be Gerrit Cole, but that wont be enough, They a Good number 3 SP too. Ten They have to close the gap in Third base, how? Signing Rendon for at least 3 years. Getting back Mc Cutchen Will be great and the Last thing Will be to get some reliable RP. This Team was so unLucky with almost 8 relievers on the disable list. If Maddon becomes available They should sign him.
“Bruce” Harper was pretty blah considering the ball being juiced, and my drunk Grandma could hit 20 homers this season.
It’s always hilarious when the fans suggestions on how to get better is to sign the 2 or 3 best free agents available. Oh and trade for a ace pitcher lol.
I was a Harper fan before he came to the Phillies, but have to admit now I love the guy. He plays the game very hard every game, every inning. He has gone out of his way to promote good will in the city and everywhere he’s gone. As far as the contract goes no one can evaluate that fully at this early juncture, but from a business standpoint it’s been a great signing because the Phillies have sold a ton of tickets and while Phillies fans have really soured on this year’s team, they have not soured on Harper. Is he overrated? Yes, but that’s the media’s fault, not his. And when you look at his contract he’s making just under $26M a year. As outrageous as this sounds it’s not a bad contract for his production by today’s standards.
Biggest contract in history and he’s a whole 26% better than average. Correct me if I’m wrong but that puts him at a 76%, which is why i gave him a C.
Dude had very little clutch in his body, no ability to fire up his teammates yet baseball writers drool over him for some reason.
When you write that Harper was “one of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager,” does that mean you believe his abilities have always been the subject of exaggerated claims? If not, then hype is not the word you wanted here.
Neither PHI Bryce Harper nor SDP Manny Machado was the biggest need for their teams when they signed. Both performed exactly as expected. Harper’s numbers are similar to his lifetime 160 G average minus his MVP year. Machado’s offense declined accordingly as he went from a hitters park to a pitchers park.
Is Philly a playoff team right now? No
Is Harper a Top 3 MVP candidate right now? No
Do the Phils have a few places to address this offseason? Yes
Can
Was the money well-spent? Maybe
Phils need at least 1 starting pitcher. Healthy McCutchen would help them. Even without picking up options they are close to $200-mil in payroll next year (projected). Herrera fiasco did not help either. Can’t point the finger in Harper’s direction on this one.
Actually it will be closer to $150 WITH arb-eligible increases, expiring deals, etc. (newspaper ran an article detialing it yesterday or today). They could field a team (not a good one) for $150M so they have resources for a Cole, for instance.
Got to feel sorry for the Phillie Fans while watching Washington and Rendon snicker all the way to the bank as the Nationals unloaded their conceited ‘boat anchor’ and ‘God’s Little Gift to Baseball’.. He MUST be worth all that money as he almost hit .260!
This isn’t their only reason for failure, no – there remain plenty of holes. Wonder how strong the ‘team chemistry’ is with him on board and everyone else knowing what they know about him? Is he mature enough to fill the role they anticipate him taking on? I don’t see it.
When you add Segura for Crawford, add the best catcher in baseball, have a true #1 ace, a player in Hoskins who looked like a true clean up stud who will also walk 100 times PLUS one baseball’s biggest young talents, a #8 hitter with 20 homers and 75 rbi and still may finish under .500, you have to ask “why?” and be very honest.
He hustles. He destroys bad pitching. But he will go into prolonged slumps and every team knows how to get him out. Until he realizes that line drives in that wind tunnel, band box of a stadium will produce wins, the Phillies will have a hard time making the playoffs any year unless baseball adopts hockey’s playoff system.
Harper should easily score 100 and drive in 100 if he plays 150 games. People need to forget homers and really start looking at a team’s record. Braves were not expected to win, Nats had a huge hole to fill, Oakland NEVER has the talent or payroll to compete and don’t get me started on Tampa.
I give Harper a C because his team failed to finish .500 and if not for beating up on the Mets the first half, they might not have 70 wins.
It’s pretty blah. His power was less than impressive in a juiced ball crazy season. That contract is truly awful.
Yeaaaaa…Harper signed for the money. He isn’t a PhillyBoy and has run back to Lost Wages (Las Vegas) already, I’m sure.Philly would dump him on first opportunity, but who really wants him?