Just a couple months ago, Padres outfielder Hunter Renfroe looked like a legitimate breakout player. As a result, the defensively adept slugger drew plenty of trade interest leading up to the deadline, though the Padres understandably elected against parting with him. This season has since become about looking forward for the out-of-contention Padres, who are reportedly set to count on Renfroe as one of their main outfielders again in 2020. There are clear reasons for that – including Renfroe’s 31 home runs, whopping 22 Defensive Runs Saved, and his three remaining seasons of team control – but they’ll need the 27-year-old to get off the schneid at the plate in 2020 to increase their chances of breaking a seemingly interminable playoff drought.
Although his HR total is prodigious, Renfroe has only been a middling offensive performer this year, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. His .222/.290/.498 line in 462 trips to the plate has led to an unspectacular 99 wRC+. Despite his defensive excellence, Renfroe’s so-so offense has limited him to 1.9 fWAR, essentially making him an average player. There’s value in that, especially on a cheap salary, though Renfroe looked as if he was destined for better not long ago. When the All-Star break rolled around in mid-July, Renfroe had already put up 2.4 fWAR with 27 homers and a 130 wRC+ in 289 plate appearances. Since then, however, he has dipped to a dismal .169/.260/.291 line with four HRs across 173 PA. Renfroe’s minus-0.5 fWAR during the second half of the season ties him for the fourth-worst mark in the game.
If you’re wondering what caused the destruction of Renfroe’s offensive numbers, it starts with a massive downturn in power – evidenced in part by the noticeable decrease in HRs. Renfroe boasted a ridiculous .361 ISO at the break, but the number has plummeted to a nonthreatening .122 during the second half of the season. A mammoth decline in impactful contact is an obvious cause. According to FanGraphs, Renfroe posted a hard-hit rate of 52.1 percent over the first couple months of the year. The figure has fallen to 33.7 since the All-Star Game, while Renfroe has made far less contact in general and seen his strikeout rate soar from 27.3 percent to an even 37.0.
Health may be factoring into Renfroe’s late-season issues, as manager Andy Green said Tuesday (via Dennis Lin of The Athletic) that his production has “suffered because of” a sore elbow and a problematic ankle. Likewise, it hasn’t helped Renfroe’s cause that pitchers have somewhat changed their approach when he has come to the plate, having thrown more sliders against him as the season has progressed, per FanGraphs. Renfroe’s especially vulnerable when dealing with breaking pitches, according to Statcast, which credits him with a .237 weighted on-base average/.219 expected wOBA against those offerings.
By Statcast’s standards, Renfroe’s overall output has been something of a mixed bag. He ranks in the league’s 66th percentile or better in exit velocity and Statcast’s Outs Above Average defensive metric, but his other numbers aren’t as encouraging. For one, Renfroe’s expected batting average – .218 – dwells toward the bottom of the league (third percentile). And his xwOBA (.310; 27th percentile) also doesn’t offer much encouragement, suggesting he has actually been fortunate to hit for a real wOBA (.328) that’s more mediocre than spectacular.
In spite of his second-half woes, it’s evident San Diego views Renfroe as a player who could be part of the solution as it seeks a return to relevance. But if Renfroe’s really going to emerge as a high-end complement to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in 2020, the Padres will need the player who showed up during the first half of this season to reappear going forward. If healthy, perhaps he will.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
braveshomer
What are the odds of 2 Hunter Renfrows in 2 major league sports at the same time…yes Renfroe is spelled differently but still lol
jdgoat
Two Trevor Williams as well.
Geebs
Isn’t his first name Dustin?
Dustin Hunter Renfroe I believe
Show Me Your Tatis
Renfroe has four years of club control yet. Not three.
Ruben_Tomorrow 2
I’ll give him a pass for struggling in the second half. After all, once September rolls around, he’s gotta play football on Sundays and maybe an occasional Monday night.
Jeff Zanghi
I still don’t really get why they traded Reyes to the Indians at the deadline. He’s 4 years younger than Renfroe and has better overall offensive numbers. I realize they had (and still kind of have) a surplus of corner OFs but still Reyes is only 23 and essentially looks like a slightly better (offensive) version of Renfroe… and the prospect they got in return — really hasn’t done much at any point during his minor league seasons…
hammer_time24
Probably because the Indians also noticed that, and wanted Reyes because of it.
DrDan75
Reyes has done very well in Cleveland since the trade.
Show Me Your Tatis
0 WAR
Steve Adams
Taylor Trammell is three years younger than the average Double-A player and has posted roughly league-average output in a wildly pitcher-friendly environment. He’s widely regarded to be among the game’s 25 to 50 best all-around prospects.
I’m not saying moving Franmil for him was a no-brainer or even that it was a good move — just that looking at a prospect’s raw numbers is a good way to mislead yourself, especially in 2019. The offensive environment in Triple-A is beyond out of control, and Double-A is on the polar opposite of the spectrum.
Trammell’s .229/.316/.381 slash in the Texas League translates to a 98 wRC+. Mauricio Dubon hit .302/.345/.477 in Triple-A and had a 97 wRC+. Age and league context are more important than ever.
Gobbysteiner
Renfroe has incredible defense though. Reyes, to put it nicely, doesn’t.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Despite the minor offensive upgrade, he gives it all back on the defensive end. Padres have a mass pileup due to the Hosmer deal. They have guys like Reyes or similar enough to Reyes to where a potential everyday CF skill set makes a massive difference, especially as no one came close to running away with the job. It seemed somewhat of a no brainer to be honest. A lot of glove first OFs that can’t hit or on the other end of the spectrum def liabilities who are sort of one tool deals. Renfroe seemingly turned the corner defensively so bet on that, especially if you believe the injury has made a significant impact in the downturn.
DrDan75
That’s why he’s a DH in Cleveland
Pads Fans
He has a stress fracture in his ankle. He hurt it July 13th vs the Braves. Most of us would not be walking well let alone playing baseball. He will be fine in 2020.
padreforlife
Fine .237 career hitter who’s weak in field.
mlbfan1978
He has been one of the best defensive outfielders in all of baseball this year. Something bear 20 runs saved. That’s not weak.