Clearly dissatisfied with yet another season well below the .500 mark, the Padres fired manager Andy Green last weekend. It didn’t come off as an unreasonable decision by the Padres, who didn’t make real progress in the standings in four years under Green (albeit during a rebuild) and who’d surely like to turn around their fortunes in 2020.
Green may have deserved his fate, but it’s difficult to lay all the blame at his feet when the club’s highest-paid players haven’t pulled their weight over the past couple years. Third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, whom general manager A.J. Preller and the Padres stunningly reeled in for $300MM, has been good but not great in the first season of his 10-year contract. Outfielder Wil Myers received a six-year, $83MM extension after a career season in 2016, but his production has declined to a noticeable extent since. And then there’s first baseman Eric Hosmer, whose contract looks like the most regrettable of the three.
Even though they obviously weren’t going to contend in 2018, and even though there weren’t a lot of clear suitors for him, the Padres handed Hosmer an eight-year, $144MM guarantee prior to that season. At the time, it seemed you either loved the Padres’ bold choice or you hated it. To be sure, Hosmer had his high points as a Royal from 2011-17 – a span in which he helped the team to a pair of AL pennants, won a World Series, picked up an All-Star nod and took home four Gold Gloves. Along the way, the well-regarded Hosmer became one of the faces of baseball for the many who place a great deal of value on intangibles.
On the other hand, Hosmer was far from a consistent producer as a Royal. While Hosmer put up two seasons of 3.5 fWAR or better with the Royals, the other campaigns weren’t nearly as successful. Hosmer posted two years in the negatives in that category while a member of the Royals, and unfortunately for the Padres, that’s the version they’ve gotten since awarding him his payday.
Hosmer began his Padres career with a whimper in 2018, hitting .253/.322/.398 in 677 plate appearances. He managed minus-0.1 fWAR in the process, thanks in large part to his subpar batting line. Hosmer’s wRC+ (95) fell a good distance below the league average of 105 for his position.
This season has been more of the same for Hosmer. With less than a week to go, the soon-to-be 30-year-old has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and hit .271/.317/.430 in 649 trips to the plate. Hosmer’s OPS is better than it was a year ago, but his wRC+ (95) hasn’t improved (league average for first basemen in 2019 is 106). That isn’t where the similarities in output end, though, as you’ll see below…
Home runs – 2018: 18; 2019: 21
Isolated power – 2018: .145; 2019: .159
Weighted-on base average – 2018: .309; 2019: .315
Expected wOBA – 2018 – .310; 2019: .318
Hosmer has taken a somewhat different path in arriving at his near-identical production in 2019. He’s swinging a bit more, striking out more, walking less and making less contact. When Hosmer has made contact, he has hit more liners and fly balls, though his launch angle (minus-1.2 in 2018, plus-2.4 this year) remains extraordinarily low. In an era where more and more hitters have focused on elevating the ball (and in what many suspect is a juiced ball era), grounders continue to win the day for Hosmer. While his GB rate (55.9) has fallen by almost 5 percent since 2018, it’s nonetheless the second-highest figure among all qualified hitters.
Hosmer’s struggles putting the ball in the air have somewhat offset the gains he has made in the hard-contact department. He ranks in the league’s 78th percentile in average exit velocity (90.6) and its 87th percentile in hard-hit percentage (45.9), according to Statcast. But a well-struck grounder still typically leads to an out, and it doesn’t help matters that Hosmer’s lacking speed (this could be his first zero-steal season).
A quarter of the way into his expensive union with the Padres, it would be difficult to classify Hosmer’s San Diego tenure as anything other than a disappointment. Hosmer will still be entrenched in the club’s lineup going into 2020, but the Padres are likely going to need far more from their big-money first baseman if they’re going to make a noticeable jump in the standings.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I still think this was one of the dumbest contracts ever given out. At his best he was a slightly below average offensive first baseman who was a great defender
I had forgotten just how recent this was, and how many truly terrible seasons are still left.
Even then, I wouldn’t say he was a great defender. Above average some seasons yes, but like his bat, his glove is inconsistent.
I’ll admit I didn’t watch much of Hosmer I just knew with the Royals he was always in the GG finalists for 1B (which then again doesn’t mean anything lol)
Hosmer is no different now and when the Padres signed him to that stupid contract. Padres pretty much paid him to be a clubhouse leader, but there were way way way cheaper options.
Padres owe 70 million a season between
Hosmer, Myers, Machado
Mets also at 70+ Million with Cespedes, Cano and Degrom. It’s pathetic anymore. Teams like the Rays and Pirates spend that on their entire roster.
not sure if I’d use the Pirates as an example of how to build a club. I know we are supposed to be bashing Hosmer’s contract here, but I’d say that giving up Meadows, Glasnow, and (Baz, I think) will have as much of a long=term, detrimental impact on the Pirates as Hosmer’s terrible contract will have on the Padres.
DeGrom deserves all of those $70MM alone just for being a stud and having to play for the Mets
Who’s fault is it that he has to play for the Mets?
As someone who watches pretty much every single game, I have to point out that this leaves out perhaps the most frustrating piece, which is that his defense has been rather terrible – this season especially. Does not help things. The counting stats look decent and the first 5 months weren’t terrible, but the bat has gone cold and he looks bad in the field.
I totally understand this. I’m a Royals fan that was terribly worried KC was going to blow the meager money owner David Glass would allow on Hoz. He’s an enigma. On one hand, as a fan, you love the way he talks to the media and basically the professional way he carries himself. You sometimes love his spectacular flashy denfensive plays, but then overall he is just not a consistent good defensive player. The flashy plays override reality it seems. His offense with the Royals was decent every other year. And my biggest issue is his production at that position can easily and more affordably be replaced. He’s a great guy and a below average ball player.
Preller is without a doubt the worst executive in baseball when it comes to evaluating major league talent. Not bad at tanking and trading for prospects, but when it comes to the big club do the opposite of what your gut tells you. Eric Hosmer really received a bigger contract than Goldschmidt.
*this*
He did after all give up real value for Matt Kemp in his last go for it mode era.
Dave Stewart says hi
To say Hosmers contract is Worse than Myers.? 97 RBIs. Plays everyday. Leads on the field, what they needed when they signed him. Myers is the worst contract. By far.
And Machado isn’t having the best year either in year 1 of 10. Kind of a crazy assessment. To just make asseements. . .
True he has slumped in Sept. Since the Padres fell out. And injuries. And yes overpaid probably by an extra 2 years. And 40 mil. But Scott Boras. The Market at the time. San Diego wanting to make a Splash. . . None of these other factors are stated in the article. As I think they should.
Playing every day doesn’t mean much when you are not very good like Hosmer. Hell, given his WAR, Hosmer playing every day hurts the Padres. And what exactly is he leading? They lost 90 games and the manager was fired. And who cares he had 97 RBIs? This is 2019. We know RBIs are not a great stat to judge hitters by. Every other stat paints Hosmer as a slightly below average replacement level 1B who doesn’t offer much offense and is bad defensively. And who has another 5 years left on his huge extension. Yikes
If your playing everyday. You have to be doing something right. At the major league level.
When they signed him. Because you asked what he was leading. I’d say the younger players in the Organization. Considering he has playoff experience and a World Series Ring. Being one of the on field Leaders for the Royals… Back to back World Series Appearances… My how people forget.
And to Say RBIs as not considered what a good hitter brings to the table. I don’t really have much to say about that, Other then do you think all the home runs are only indicative of what a good hitter is. ?
And my opinion of the current stat craze. Has oversaturated the game to the degree that a player like Kevin Pillar would be playing right field every other day as a replacement. Instead of leading his team with 21 home runs. 84 RBIs. Playing everyday…
And Hosmer was a free agent signing. Not an extension. . . 6 more years. !
Why do you keep mentioning HR’s and RBI’s? Everyone is hitting HR’s which brings with it RBI’s.
Is the game not about scoring the most runs. ?
Pretty cut and dry if you ask me…
Ask any front office in Baseball. They agree. You have to score more than the other team to win. Period. Ha.
Yes it’s about scoring runs but I don’t see what that has to do with what I said.
He’s playing everyday because he’s being paid $144mil and the Padres wouldn’t dare bench him. He’s literally a negative on the field, on a complete albatross of a contract.
It was a horrible deal the moment it was signed, and it’s worse now. There’s no defending it.
None of those points are stated because none of them matter. They didn’t over pay by 2 years more like 4 years and around 80 – 90 mil. I’m not going to bother laying out the numbers for you since they did a pretty good job of that in the article, alternatively you could go to baseballreference or FanGraphs or the hundred other site you can see both traditional stats and advanced stats and see for yourself. As far as intangibles go you could get the same thing from someone like Granderson at a fraction the cost.
Personally I’m all for ball players getting paid, I hate owners of billion dollar teams crying with a cup in there hand and pockets turned out, especially ones that are trying to compete (looking at you Nutting), I hate salary caps/luxury caps and so on but to pretend that Hosmers contract is anything less then a disaster is just willful ignorance.
Well. I stated that Myers was worse than Hosmers contract. That was the first thing I said.
The points I made mattered when he was signed in free agency. You seem to be champing at the bit now years later. . . Mad he has 6 more seasons… I did say it was a few years too many. But you seem to think more like 4.
How bout not sign him. But then again your all for players Getting Paid…
Pretty all over the map here. On what you want. . .
Machado got over paid. Is considered an building block like they thought of Hosmer… Machados defense ups his numbers. Definitely. . .
Plus at the time Hosmer was signed. The offense explosion hadn’t hit it’s nadar. As it has these last two seasons… Breaking alltime records… What a joke. !
I’m not talking about Myers I’m talking strictly about Hosmer and his contract.
I can live in both side of the fence, nothing is simply black and white, I’m all for players getting paid fare market value, whatever that might be, I could care less if Hosmer makes a billion dollars but that doesn’t mean his performance is worth it. I’m not “all over the map” I’m just not asymmetrical, I can be ok with him making a lot of money while simultaneously thinking he’s overpaid.
I’m not looking back in hindsight and saying he’s over paid either, I panned the signing at the time and still think it was a stupid signing.
That’s completely untrue. Offense was on the up at the time already, the launch angle revolution was in full swing, and there was a litany of articles on Hosmer’s horrendous ground ball tendencies, as well as his refusal to change his approach.
Myers is terrible but Hosmer is owed almost twice as much
According to Baseball Reference. Hosmer has 102 total for 6 years.
Vs. Myers @ 68.5 for 3 years.
Myers doesn’t even play that much anymore. Until recently. They have stated they have to Get him right. No one wants him. He’s untradable. . .
Hosmer is Hitting third. Everyday. At 13 mil per the last three years… Not that Crazy of a sum to me.
I personally wouldn’t have signed Hosmer for 8 years. Boras pulled a fast one here. . .
Hosmer is owed $99m over the next 6 years. He will still be overpaid on the back end when he’s making $13m per.
What matters is AVV not how the cash is actually distributed meaning it makes not difference if he makes 1 dollar each year for the first 7 years and $143,999,994 dollars in year 8. It’s $18 mil annually regardless of distribution of funds.
Agreed two years too long. But my thoughts, San Diego wanted a middle of the order hitter for the young guys. And Added Machado as well. For a 3 – 4 punch.
What I’ve been reading. Is San Diego is up and coming which I think is why they need a new manager to get them over the hump. With Tatis coming back next year.
That’s not true. Why would they have front loaded contracts then. ?
AVV is great for posterity. And players and agents egos. And helps to push free agent signings.
All about the mighty dollar.
I’m sure opt outs factors into this as well. . .
It was either give him those two extra years or he goes to the ChiSox.
And the Padres have literally no one else who will ever be a regular Major League 3rd baseman.
Also I was reading that Hosmer has an opt out after year five. Meaning 21 mil per five seasons. Can opt out if he wants. The final 13 mil per 3 seasons. . .
Front loaded 105 for 5 years.
Scott Boras at his finest…
I don’t think Hosmer sticks around for that. At age 33-35. But if he gets hurt. Maybe.. ?
21 mil per season age 28-32. His Prime… Maybe slightly over paid. By 3-4 mil. Per season. But that was the market at the time. . .
Belt is making 17 and change for 5 years. . . Apparently at the time took a home town discount, to a degree…
well I’m not an accountant for an MLB team but everything I’ve read indicates that they front load and back load contracts for many reasons including but not limited to Expected cash flow for the team (ie concessions, gates, merchandise and most important tv contracts). There is also the potential for moving the player, getting another team to take on more of the overall value of the contract or less of it and that player potentially being more attractive since he would have less cash coming to him. Also the player might prefer cash distribution in a less linear way.
There’s a better chance that Hosmer’s gonna have a period then opt out after 5 years.
Your going back n forth. Your saying it doesn’t matter how it’s distributed then your saying to does.
You not an accountant. But here’s some accounting.
Good Luck.
It’s like you read only part of anything said, Im not “going back and forth” you asked a question and I answered it. Are you slow or something? Did you fall and hit your head? Did you drive stakes through your nose and into your brain as a child?
You’re exhausting and I’m done with you.
Hosmer isn’t even worth $13m at this point. And the opt out can only make it worse because he will opt out if and only if he is worth more than that.
Nope. You could trade Myers by including mid-tier prospects like Weathers and Potts (exact names TBD). No one would touch Hosmer’s contract unless we paid 2/3 of it, and probably not then.
But Jay there was no market at the time for Hosmer that is the point. And as far as making a splash signing him did not do that. It was a criticized signing from day one. A real head scratcher.
The “splash” excuse has been used by Preller honks to shield AJP from all of his bad decisions.
Trading real talent for the dead husk of Matt Kemp? “The owners wantd to make a splash.”
Signing Wil Myers to an extension that didn’t save money over going to arbitration, when Myers hadn’t proven anything? “The owners wanted to make a splash by signing the next face of the franchise.”
Signing Eric Hosmer when no one else wanted him, to a contract at least twice what he was worth? “The owners wanted a splash to generate fan interest.”
It’s always been a BS excuse. Even if ownership was pressing him to do those things — and there’s no evidence, just rumors propagated by people who love AJP — a GM must be able to talk sense into his bosses. No owner is EVER going to be mad at a GM who DOESN”T spend money.
Padre conspiracy. All owners met in the basement of a Sacramento restaurant in 2016. All owners worried about endless salary inflation and all wanted a hard salary cap, once and for all.
They took a vote and decided the Padres would do one big stupid contract per year and then the Padres would serve as the example at the next CBA to prove big money contracts don’t win games. Of course the Padres accepted their role because of a secret compensation package that all the other owners agreed to pay.
In order to keep the Plan moving forward, the Padres will have to over spend this off season too. Think Porcello, Keuchel, Bumgarner, or Castellanos. Somewhere between 4/50 or 5/65 for one of those guys.
The interesting thing is he is a BAD defender. VERY BAD. But he kinda got away with “intangibles” and getting hot on his walk year and parlayed that into nine figures deal. And in the meantime guys like Moustakas have to almost beg for a job. It’s a joke. Preller is a joke too, always has, can’t believe that guy still has a job, has he ever won a deal? Remember when he shipped out TREA TURNER? pssss
Paddack/Tatis/Meija/Trammel
Let’s see Mejia and Trammell have sustained success in the majors before saying Preller won those deals. But you can also include the Cashner trade and the Trevor Cahill/Matt Strahm trade in the deals he has won.
People used to say Hosmer’s defense was unfairly judged because he had range issues, but he was sure handed.
This year (and to a lesser extent 2018) he’s kept his range problems and added dropping the ball.
Basically he is Bryce Harper less $7,000,000
If you want to completely ignore that Harper is superior in every meaningful statistical category (and has generally been worth his 2019 salary) to instead focus solely on the fact that both are humans who play baseball professionally — sure, I can see the comp.
Except Harper actually is good and earned his money…
*snickers*
meanwhile the royals are enjoying our compensation pick daniel lynch! thanks padres!
daniel has won two championships in the minors (so far) & currently in the AFL this fall.
Don’t act like a bunch of your fans on here didn’t want Hosmer to stay
I know a lot of the KC fans really wanted him to stay. It would have been a horrible mistake for any club and especially egregious for a rebuilding team like the Royals. The thing was, any longtime royals fan could see it if they took off the homer or “hosmer” glasses and paid attention to the tangible evidence Hoz gave us daily. I really believe the Padres were duped into believing Hoz has some intangible magic in him and in spite of the evidence in front of their very noses they were going to sign him. Many Royals fans felt the same way for sure. The player the Royals should have kept was Lo Cain. Better player.
Explain to me how and why Preller is still employed.
I’ll wait…….
The Tatis trade.
Naylor and Paddack too
Tatis trade.. Paddack trade..#1 Farm.. Finding Yates free.. etc.. yes he has made 2 or 3 bad moves/signings but who hasn’t.. and no Kemp + Upton + Kimbrel going for it doesn’t count because that wasn’t his doing per say as much as it was new ownership dictating short term success vs building properly..offcourse those signings (james Shields as well) led to some of the key pieces Tatis Jr ..Castillo. the newly converted BP arm Guerra and Margot (as well as Allen who led to the Trammell acquisition).. so I don’t have a problem with what AJP has done so far.. but 2020-21-22-23 Padres have to at least be in it (WC) in Septemebr (20) and in postseason ..deep in postseason vome 21 22 23.. and I think with Paddack + Gore and Patino plus a TOR addition they will have the arms both SP and BP to be in the Convo..
The “ownership made him do it” excuse for 2015 is thrown around by Preller defenders with no evidence.
Even if it’s true, there were other ways to make a splash than trading a great cheap catcher for an awful expensive “outfielder” and moving Trea Turner because you didn’t think he could play SS. Grandal gave the Dodgers 9.6 bWAR. Turner’s provided 12+ bWAR for Washington since the trade…. brilliant scouting of your own players.
My biggest issue is people who defend the Kemp trade on the grounds that “Yasmani Grandal sucked and was a clubhouse cancer in SD.” Grandal was pre-arb at the time so if he was really a problem (and I’m not saying he wasn’t), they could have just non-tendered him. They didn’t have to trade for Kemp to get rid of him.
Agree. Somehow that clubhouse cancer was the starting catcher for four playoff teams in Los Angeles, and now he’s in the playoffs again as a Brewer.
Maybe Grandal got sideways to Bud Black, and Preller leaned on Black’s expertise, but that was another trade that looked awful from the beginning and only got worse.
Even if Preller did lean on Black’s expertise Grandal was pre-arb at the time so if he was really a problem, the simple solution was to non-tender him.
Unbelievable that anyone liked that signing. Or thought the Padres would be able to trade him a year or two down the road.
The signing was a horrible signing before the ink dried. This is no surprised; totally expected.
The Hosmer signing was to bring fans to the ballpark. Sell them seats!
Who is actually paying to see Eric Hosmer?
Sigh…
After 2019 Hosmer is owed $99M through 2025. May opt out of final 3 Yrs $39M. Myers’ backloaded deal guarantees $61M through 2023 Option Buyout.
Committing $40.0M combined over the next 3 seasons is a major issue for the Padres. What to do?
Deepest farm system in baseball. Keep adding pieces and not consolidating prospect base into an MLB Roster that’s competitive. 2020 must be that time. Finding a taker for the $61M owed to Myers is the logical route. Hosmer at least provides some value where Myers might be part of the cultural issues in SD.
Packaging Myers with multiple highly touted prospects makes sense. I’d be willing to include CJ Abrams for any rebuilding team willing to take on the full $61M. That opens payroll flexibility to pursue who the Padres top target should be this offseason… Stephen Strasburg.
Another idea would be packaging Myers with a prospect or 2 to the Rangers for another bad contract IF Rougned Odor. Odor will enter his age 26 seasons owed $36.0M through a 2023 buyout.
Or maybe deal with the Royals for Ian Kennedy / Danny Duffy (one not both). Merrifield could be a really ideal piece for the Padres too.
Padres need to get creative and have the haul of capital including a Competitive Balance Pick to dump Myers. Hosmer bite your tongue and hope the offensive production improves.
Can’t believe people are still buying into Preller. The Padres have to be the first “rebuilding” team to sign three contracts that big. And they still suck???
I was in SD from 81- 85 great Padre years I fell in love with the team and city. I’m on the East coast and review this site regularly. I have never seem such whining from old women like this. Obviously its a small market, obviously ownership issues, they are rebuilding. They have core talent, they need pieces like SP, sort out the OF, but you buy talent, acquire it and hope for the best. Put a sock in it. and for pete’s sake enjoy the game as recreation not a cross.
Signing Hosmer is the opposite of buying talent.
No GM should get paid because he “hoped for the best.”
if we had 8 Hosmers we would be in the playoffs.. overpay sure.. but dude has quality ABs and absolutely kills RHP.. most of his struggles (negative value) comes from facing LHP.. If Padres keep Myers it wouldnt hurt much to give Hosmer 20 or so days off a yr vs the toughest LHP.. which Myers does well against… and this will keep Hosmer fresher (for Sept) and not let him fade..it wasn’t but 3 weeks ago he was .292 and .808 OPS .. so rest him a bit more.. and while not a poaitive value $$ at least a break even one.. Renfroe now that we know he was playing thru pain should be fine too with proper rest.. .900+ OPS when he was healthy.. a disaster in July and August playing thru pain.. they rest him for like 9 games and has OPS 1.103 since coming back… got to keep these guys fresh… I think Pads went really hard 1st half 45-45 and then the ASW break and wear and tear caught up with the young team and its Vets and the wheels came off..
A .781 OPS isn’t exactly “absolutely killing” RHP, especially for a 1b in today’s offensive environment.
Hosmer has a 93 WRC+. The team WRC+ is 88. A bump of 5 points is nowhere near enough to add 18 wins.
The Cards have the lowest WRC+ of any current playoff team at 94. They pitch better than SD (the underlying metrics favor SD, but the results go to STL) and field a lot better.
Even the intangibles argument comes up short with Hosmer. You’re supposed to be a team leader. The team quit. If it’s all Green’s fault, why did Hosmer get paid for leadership. .
It was a stupid contract from the jump. You could more easily trade Myers than Hosmer, and that’s saying a mouthful.
Our fielding, outside Hosmer, is pretty good. One thing we are decent at right now.
If you had 8 Hosmer’s, you would have 8 below average players. I’ll go out on a limb here and say 8 below average players doesn’t get you to the playoffs.
He’s not good. There’s no way to frame him as good.
Was there a contract so universally laughed at as much as this one?
I remember all the geniuses saying that Manny Machado wouldn’t have signed with the Padres if they hadn’t signed Hosmer first. How bad do they look right now?
When this contract was announced, almost everyone in the free world and a lot of people in the un-free parts issued a collective “WTH?”. It was a terrible contract from the get go. All the other teams in the NL West were overjoyed that the Padres has wasted a lot of money for a long time on a meh player.
I like how Preller fanboys always try to call Trea Turner injury prone even though Fernando Tatis Jr hasn’t even been in the majors a full season yet and he’s already spent more days on the DL/IL due to non-freak-related injuries than Turner has.
Hosmer is not the Padres reason for losing. Starting pitching is the problem followed by getting a catcher who can hit his weight. 2B is not settled. LF not settled. Cordero is wild card. If he can get healthy….that dude can crush a baseball…and is fast. Go watch him in BP.
2nd base is absolutely settled. LF Myers is unmovable so they might as well just put him there and leave him there. Cordero sucks.
Hosmer is the 7th best hitter among qualified position players on the team. That’s awful from a 1b. Strahm ihas been a better hitter.
In much less time, Urias has been more valuable than Hosmer. They’re both negative fWAR, sure, but Urias, because he’s not inept defensively, is less negative. He should be the 2b, especially since Green presumably took his love for Kinsler (another brilliant Preller signing) with him.
Myers in left has been more valuable than Hosmer, too. We still need more out of LF, but you can’t say Hosmer isn’t a problem when he’s way less productive than another bad player.