When David Phelps signed with the Blue Jays this past offseason, his $2.5MM contract contained a club option for the 2020 season initially that was valued at $1MM — a likely reflection of the fact that his performance and general health were question marks coming off Tommy John surgery. Unsurprisingly, the contract allowed for him to boost the value of that option with a solid showing in 2019.
Activated from the IL on June 17 and traded to the Cubs on July 30, Phelps has been terrific for both teams, working to a combined 3.18 ERA with a 30-to-12 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings (33 appearances). When he took the mound for the 30th time in 2019, he boosted the value of his 2020 option from that initial $1MM baseline to $3MM. He’s also already earned $500K of incentives and will earn another $250K when he makes his 35th appearance. If Phelps takes the ball seven more times before the end of the regular season, he’ll again boost the value of his option, this time to $5MM, and secure another $350K bonus.
The level at which his 2020 option settles is of particular intrigue because that will also determine the amount of incentives available to him next year. Phelps’ contract came with three different possible tiers of incentives, each of which was based on the option’s ultimate value. MLBTR has learned some of the specifics surrounding those incentive packages. If his option is valued at $3MM (i.e. he appears in 39 or fewer total games), Phelps would be able to earn an additional $2.75MM in appearance-based bonuses: $250K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $400K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games.
Were he to reach that 40-appearance threshold in 2019 and boost the value of the option to $5MM, he’d be able to earn an additional $1.5MM in appearance-based bonuses: $150K for reaching 25, 30 and 35 games as well as $210K for reaching 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 games. Both tiers contain added incentives for games finished, but the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel doesn’t bode well for Phelps’ chances of an extended run as the team’s closer.
All of those factors will be weighed by the Cubs when they determine whether to bring Phelps back for the 2020 season, as will the fact that they stand to see a large chunk of their ’pen depart via free agency. Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Derek Holland, Xavier Cedeno, Tony Barnette and Brandon Morrow (who didn’t throw a pitch in 2019) are all off the books at season’s end.
From a pure performance standpoint, Phelps has improved as the season has worn on. His fastball averaged 92.1 mph with the Jays but is up to 92.8 mph with the Cubs. That’s still less than the 94.4 mph he averaged prior to Tommy John surgery, but the life on that heater does seem to be coming back. Phelps also managed just a 5.4 percent swinging-strike rate in Toronto but has seen that rate leap to 11.1 percent in Chicago — a rate that would represent a career-high. He’s also benefited from a sky-high 98.6 percent strand rate with the Cubs, though, which no pitcher can be expected sustain over a larger body of work. Phelps has held righties in check nicely (.232/.311/.377) but struggled against opposing lefties (.263/.349/.553).
Phelps’ usage over the regular season’s final couple of weeks will be worth monitoring, as it may ultimately play a large role in determining whether he’s back with the team in 2020 or searching for a new deal in free agency this winter. Neither the $3MM or $5MM price point is any sort of back-breaker, particularly with a fair bit of money coming off the books. But the Cubs also likely want to maintain as much flexibility as they can, and tacking on an extra $2MM to Phelps’ option is probably something they’d like to avoid, if possible, unless they’re planning to decline the option either way. There’s no buyout on the option, so this’ll be a straight $3MM or $5MM decision, depending on how many more times Phelps takes the ball prior to Sept. 29.
I doubt he makes seven appearances. The Cubs have 13 relief pitchers. Some for high leverage. Some for just garbage time. Phelps has fallen in between. I would think that he would have to hope for close games where the starters don’t make five innings. Or a game 163.
Game 163… I love it!
Yeah, haven’t you heard? Versus the Cards on Sept.30 for the NL Central. The Cubs won’t mind staying an extra day.
That team will be planning their golf destinations by sep 25!!!!?
Considering how they’ve been playing, they probably started planning their offseason in June.
But then how will you express your desperate need for attention!!!!?
with him being one of the few bright spots in an already bad pen and a lot of its departing after this season for 5 mil can really afford to let him go?
It’s not a bad pen. It just lacks the lights out closer, but the Cubs are locked into Kimbrel now. $3 million is a no-brainer option pickup. $5 million is a tough call, probably a no.
I think you are about the only fan in baseball that doesn’t think this pen is a disaster. They are absolutely not missing just one piece, I chuckled at this one.
Actually not boding well for Kimbrel to be the teams closer. Has not put up good numbers and has not been healthy. If Kimbrel does not return to form by the end of the Cubs season, The Cubs may well be forced to keep Phelps no matter his cost with him being such a bright spot in the pen.
Typically I would agree with you on Kimbrel, but I would hope that a full offseason and then a full workout would eliminate a lot of the ‘nagging’ injuries – the reason is while we were all told he was still working out during his lay off, we also in reality know that the type of ‘workout’ he was doing is nothing like a regular in season / off season workout plan. I look for Kimbrel to come back next year and be MUCH better – maybe not the dominate one we saw of him in the past but way better than he has been this year for us.
Or maybe he’s another older washed up closer that 99% of the “elite” closers turn into once they are in their 30’s. Kimbrel being 32 next season does not bode well for anyone expecting great seasons from here on out.
I think the Cubs definitely will pick up Phelps contract at either price. The bigger question will be Kinzler. Both of them along with Kimbrel and Rowan Wick, and Kyle Ryan and Danny Hultzen – make up a good pen at a fair price. They also have a number of decent arms to shuttle between Iowa and Wrigley, as situations arise.
That shuttle between Iowa and Wrigley is one of the reasons the Cubs are in the position they are in. Just like football “you have three quarterbacks that means you really don’t have one”…same here….”when you have 14 arms, you don’t have the four or five you really need.”
I don’t agree with what, you see as the ‘problem ‘. To me, the bigger problem was the first half of the season. Morrow was being counted on, and he wasn’t healthy. Kimbrel wasn’t signed yet. Wick and Ryan either were not up yet, or unknown quantities. Strop was being counted on, and failed miserably.
The Cubs pen was vastly improved as the year went on, but that is assuming Kimbrels arm is relatively healthy. The addition of Phelps was a solid pick up at the deadline.
I’m pretty sure that this is not a “looming decision” that the front office is losing sleep over right now, with 15 games to play. Nice filler on a Friday morning, but something to be discussed October 1st or sometime near after.
Sure, it’s not a priority for them right now — but “looming decision” isn’t intended to convey urgency. It is something they’ll need to consider, though, and the fact that his usage over the final two weeks impacts his price tag adds some immediate relevance.
As for Friday morning filler — well, yeah! There’s not exactly a ton of hard news or transactions kicking around, haha, so why not dig up some contract details and present a semi-interesting option scenario that hasn’t been widely discussed or noticed?
Sorry Steve,I just took the headline took literal. But—-“looming” did grab my eye and I did read it with a little more awareness than I may have.
Yes, the usage is what is looming and they have to basically decide how sure they are in bringing him back under the option. If they decide that they will decline the option no matter what they can use them all they want. If they think they may want to keep him, they have to decide how they will use him considering they still need to win regular season games right now.
Don’t worry about these Dummy Cubby fans Steve. They’re just kinda salty and bitter right now that a $230 million payroll and a “can’t miss core dynasty” has floundered in to the overpaid overpriced hyped that they were deemed 3 years ago
Honest question: why do you feel the need to troll every single Cubs post and Cubs comment? Looking through your history, it seems that’s like 80% of your comments here. Enough already, man. Find a more meaningful way to contribute to threads or we’ll just start deleting your comments. It’s a tired freaking act.
I recognize that you’re not the only one trolling a certain team, but if you’re going to reply to a direct comment made by me while mocking one whole team’s fan-base, you’re kind of asking for it.
Find something better to do with your time.
Sorry. Go cubbies and go Sox!
Steve, thank you!! It is refreshing that MLBTR continues to allow fans to voice comments while other outlets have flatout cut them off because they had become troll fest.
I wasn’t trying to be a dummy Cub fan earlier and already apologized for taking the headline a little too literal.
That being said, I have been a Cubs season ticket holder for longer than most of your audience have been alive and can easily say that I have seen them lose over 4,000 times. I have no room for any negativity during this five year run.
As a STH I have been in a number of forums, etc with Theo and Jed and never once did they mention a dynasty, and to the contrary laid out that every year is sacred and never once promised a championship. The ultimate goal, as relayed at these meetings, was to play meaningful baseball games in September and October for extended period of time.
One of the Cubs management and front office faults is that they are so accessible and transparent. Every day they are on the radio, TV and do not shy away from speaking. With that comes greater expectations because their goals are right in front of fans who live and die on every game. It’s amazing how good they are and keep emotion out of their daily routine. As this is such a rabid fan based that waited “forever” to experience a World Series, the scrutiny heightens by the day when things aren’t like 2016. It’s just not feasible.
Again, thanks to MLBTR for having a forum—-you can simply turn it all off like ESPN, CBS, so many others have.
Boy, Steve was that overdue! Thank you!
Great “filler” Steve! Very interesting!
No way do the cubs pick up his option – they decline the option, sign him to 3yrs $13MM with incentives then he will go for TJ surgery in late June.
Pick up the option, trade him back to the Jays with Ian Happ and (maybe) a minor leaguer for Giles.
So the Cubs have spent 140 million on pitching counting the chumps who left and the guys in minored.
This is more than was spent by the other 4 teams in division combined.
Become G M
Suck for 5 years while raising prices.
Barely beat Indian team devastated by injury
And hire old over paid guys.
This is hat killed Ep Hoyer in Boston.
Still 75 million left on Heyward, 38 million on Kimbrel, ……? On Darvish,
At least do a little homework and get your numbers accurate before you post. I don’t disagree with your premise though.
4 years and $81 million left on Yu Garbish contract lol
And Darvish is pitching great.
chitown… It’s gonna be great to see your desperate cries for attention disappear.
Cubs lock him up 5yrs 50mil. They overpay for everything and then there arm falls off. Go cubbies
Just to add some humor. Maybe the Cubs sign both RP Kyle Crick and OF Yasiel Puig this off season. Then we can get some real entertainment on this Cubs team.
If they need him to cross these thresholds to get to the postseason, they will not keep him from pitching.
Wonder why the Cubs bother having Descalso and his sub .200 average around.