Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.
Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.
Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.
How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.
Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.
Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.
To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
what do we now thing Dever’s ceiling is? As a big Red Sox fan and particularly as a guy who’s been a big fan of Dever’s since he started putting up big power numbers as a teenager in the Dominican Rookie League… I would have predicted him developing into a guy who would hit .285-.290 with 35+ HRs. But I would have expected that to be something he would develop into in a year or two. Now a season later he’s already blowing past what I thought his potential was going to be. So the question now is… how high can he go? it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 22 years old and basically the same age as most of the “top prospects” around baseball because of how great he’s already playing. But does that mean he’s going to keep getting better and legitimately be a .330 (maybe even .340-.350 as he develops further!?) or is this his peak already? (which is hard to believe given he’s only 22) And then from a power perspective. He’ll probably end up with 30-32 HRs this year. Will he eventually become a 50 HR threat!? No matter what it’ll be fascinating to watch as he develops and hey who knows maybe the sky’s the limit with this kid!!!
Remember he didn’t hit a home run until May this year so yeah, 45-50 isn’t out of the question.
That’s true!! He started out really slow so take that out of the equation and he could’ve even been on pace for 40+ already this year!
I hate being negative as there simply is nothing not to love especially the way he got into better shape which shows in the field but my concern is not just for Devers but most others too. When the ball gets corrected, will he still outhit everyone.
His batted balls in play is unsustainable. Will he be a great player probably. Will he hit .330 or more each season no. He’ll come back down to earth and settle in to a .280-300 hitter imo
Devers has always hit for a very high BABIP in the minors because he hits the the ball so hard. He leads the league in balls hit over 95 mph. When you do that you have a better chance of your ball getting in play. His BABIP May be a little high but not terribly I’m guessing he will hit in that .330 to .350 babip area when hit at as many balls as hard as he does. If he maintains that under 20% strikeout rate that is the key for Devers. Laying off that high inside fastball that he always swung through has made all the difference for Devers. His K rate plummeted from almost 25% down to 16% that is a huge drop.
He is probably dating an older woman who really takes care of him. His production will far off a cliff when she inevitably reveals her true colors and becomes a life sucking psycho.
Oddly specific.
He’s got 101 RBI holy sheet. I didn’t know he was doin that good.
To be fair, it’s pretty easy when you’re surrounded by JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogarets.
Really… it’s “pretty easy” to lead the AL in extra base hits, hits and bat .330 at AGE 22 because he’s surrounded by 3 other good hitters? LOL — I get what you’re saying it’s nice to have the protection around him… but in his case moreso than a similar player I’m not even sure it matters as much — Devers has excelled at hitting pitches out of the K-zone, even hitting them for mammoth HRs (as he did last night on a pitch in on his hands) so honestly I don’t think he needs the protection to provide “pitches to hit” as much as one might think.
I don’t think you do know what I’m saying. It’s extremely hard to hit like Devers is hitting. But his RBI total is definitley helped by having so man all star level players batting in front of him.
Devers has been hitting second in the lineup.
Betts is the only one hitting in front of him. So yes Betts getting on base is helping him drive in runs but that’s it.
Dude has a chance to break Red Sox records for extra base hits this season. That’s not because of other players
I think he meant that those guys are always on base so his rbi total is helped by them
Led his team to third place and 16 games back
that lineup is easily the best in baseball, (sorry Dodgers fans) but they just don’t have the pitching.
Exacta mundo!
They are close but I still think the Dodgers lineup is better.
Betts, Devers, Martinez, Bogaerts, Benintendi vs Smith, Bellinger, Muncy, Pollock, Seager, Turner. That’s pretty equal but the Dodgers have a lengthier lineup.
Vasquez, Chavis, Moreland (when healthy) not to mention utility guys like Holt and even Hernandez batting .300 or above. The Dodgers are good too but the Sox are currently on pace to lead the league in Runs scored. Not sure you can say the Dodgers have the better lineup overall
They don’t lead the league in runs scored, Yanks lead all of baseball and that’s with half their lineup still missing.
Hard to compare with one team having a DH.
It’s almost as if there are 25 guys on a team and not 1.
Man it’s almost as if one player can’t carry a team…
Lead his offense to be arguably the best in baseball. Not sure if you know, but Dever’s can’t pitch.
Curtisrowe criticizes the comments for turning into a discussion about pitching….only to talk about pitching himself. What a clown.
Bernie is my new number 1 fan. Thanks for noticing my work.
Devers is just about a carbon copy of Betts. should easily be among the top handfull of players for years to come, but 2019 Devers is probably 2018 Betts. They will both be great, but these seasons will probably be their best. I dont mean this as a shot at either – its just both of these standards will be hard to match, even with the immense skill both have.
Betts is a great player his defense, base running, and offense are elite and overall there are few players as good. The bad news for Betts is he relies on quick wrists and pulling the ball for his power. I can see Betts falling off a cliff just Mccutcheon did. He is very reliant on his speed and quickness.
Devers is not nearly the defender or baserunner Betts is but his hitting is off the charts. He has power to all fields and since he has learned to lay off the high inside fastball he is very difficult to get out. He hits the ball so hard and moving forward he is the better bet to hit well. I think he is just coming into what he can be. Devers bat is special and you could see it could be since day 1. Scouts never doubted his power and they rated him with a 60 hit tool and they though that might be low. He is just coming into his own expect superstar offense for a long time to come from him.
I would like to see the Red Sox explore trading Betts in the offseason I just don’t think he will be worth that 10 year 350 to 400 million contract someone will probably give him.
I think that’s an excellent comparison Mookie Betts Andrew McCutchen. As a Sox fan I say trade Betts this winter. Let’s see if Boston can pick up a pitching Prospect on the high end or two medium guys.
Gary, I’ve been preaching trading Betts since spring training. He is going to look for Trout money and is not worth it. Devers really worked at his craft and if you honestly look at what you can see. His baby fat is gone and must be chiseled tight, all muscle. At 22, future for him is bright.
The Betts/McCutchen comp is perfect. There are going to be a lot of dead years in Mookie’s next deal. The Sox really should look to move him this Winter.
Not sure how. Betts is a premier defender and an above average runner. Devers will top out as an average glove.
Actually Devers is already rated above average defensively by fangraphs and baseball reference even with all the early errors. Pretty sure he will top out above average defensively. Watch nearly every Sox game and he has above average range, above average at coming in on the ball, above average reactions, and above average arm. Now that he seems to have gotten the throwing away thing under control I think he will be an above average defender as well as an elite hitter.
Not sure I see this at all… Betts is a speedy, RH hitting, slim leadoff type and Devers is a big-boned LH hitting Power guy… to be honest they really don’t have much other than the uniform in common…
On top of that… this isn’t even close to Betts best season so that’s just wrong… as for Devers… he’s 22 how can you possibly predict this is going to be his best season? And if you’re saying “seasons” … well Devers didn’t have a great one last year so that’s not the case either… not sure what point you were trying to make – and not trying to be a jerk or offend you or anything but I just really don’t see any logic to your argument whatsoever to be perfectly honest.
I credit JD Martinez a little for his approach at the plate. He adapted JDs signature deep breath before every pitch ritual.
One has to look at the calendar and check May 3rd. At the time Devers had hit exactly zero HR’s and was playing defense like Wily Mo Pena used to play the outfield. He was on a pace for 50 errors and every ball hit in his direction brought anxiety to every Sox fan. However, just as if he flipped a switch that day, he took off offensively and looked like a new man at 3rd. He is just barreling everything and a .359 BABIP is not the least bit surprising when he hits so many line drives. He has learned that the Green Monstah is a left-handed hitters best friend and is peppering it and clearing it constantly. Even more amazing has been the revelation in his play at 3rd. .He has gone from being the next Red Sox 1st baseman to being perfectly playable. The Red Sox problems this year are easy to recognize. Cora didn’t see Workman as the answer to the closer situation soon enough and the starters, except for Rodriguez have failed to perform as expected.
The Sox sealed their fate over the Winter when Dombrowski blew his entire pitching budget on Eovaldi. They could have had Ottavino and Britton for the same $$$ and things might have been different had they pursued other options.
It was such a predictable outcome too. Eovaldi has shown nothing in his career that he could be reliable.
I love how an article on Devers turns into people talking about the Red Sox pitching. Derp.
I wish you cited rbi’s more. While not as useful as some other stats, it’s still definitely one of the more fun ones.
I think some of the things that have to be taken into account with Devers is the veteran leadership around him which seems to have lead to an intangible poise. Every time he goes up to the plate he looks calm, he doesn’t look like he’s desperate to get a hit or trying to psych out the pitcher. He doesn’t look like a 22 year old kid at bat, he looks like a 15 year vet. And that was even evident in the WS last year. In game 4, 9th inning, Cora had Devers pinch hit in a tie game in a situation which meant Swihart would be catching potential extra innings. But Devers delivered, a rookie in a do or die situation looked as serene as anyone who was used to being in the clutch situations.
Really, I gotta say the big thing about Devers is the attitude.
I’d love to see his walk rate improve, and I think it will as guys start to pitch around him. The thing is he’s such a great bad-ball hitter. He’s so strong that he can flick balls in the right hander’s batters box off the Monster without even barreling all of it. Is the walk rate really such a problem then if he can hit for average on pitches outside the strike zone?
He also dropped 15-25 lbs in the offseason.
Every time a player has a career year, its because they lost or gained weight. Look at Harper’s career year, he was about 15-20 heavier.