Not much has gone right for the Mariners at the Major League level this season, as GM Jerry Dipoto’s ongoing plan to “re-imagine” the roster has cut a lot of payroll and brought a lot of young talent into the organization at the expense of big league wins. Only five teams have fewer victories than the 56-78 Mariners, and every single team in the four major North American professional sports leagues (MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL) has reached the postseason more recently than the M’s, who last tasted the playoffs in 2001.
With so much focus on the Mariners’ newer faces, one of the more positive development of the team’s season has been the re-emergence of a cornerstone. Thanks to hand surgery during Spring Training, Kyle Seager didn’t make his season debut until May 25, and thus the durable third baseman will appear in fewer than 154 games for the first time since his 2011 rookie season. Even in abbreviated fashion over 324 plate appearances, however, Seager looks to have reversed a very worrisome decline at the plate.
Seager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances. That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.
After breaking his left big toe in June, Seager made an ill-fated attempt to try and play through the injury, leading to the worst full-season numbers of his career. Seager’s production went from okay in 2017 to well below-average (107 wRC+ to 84, 109 OPS + to 86) , as he managed only a .221/.273/.400 slash through 630 PA, while still swatting 22 home runs.
It would’ve been easy to just write off 2018 as a result of the toe injury, though between the earlier dropoff in 2017 and then his late start to 2019, the Mariners didn’t really know what to expect from Seager this year. While still not at his 2016 peak, Seager has nonetheless rebounded to once again become a force at the plate. He has 18 homers and a .250/.327/.503 slash line over 324 PA, fueled mostly by a recent surge (1.183 OPS over his last 132 PA) that has made Seager one of baseball’s top hitters over the last five weeks of action.
While he may not remain quite this red-hot, Seager’s production looks mostly sustainable. His .354 xwOBA actually outpaces his .350 wOBA (which has been a consistent trend for him since Statcast began measuring wOBA/xwOBA back in 2015). His exit velocity and hard-hit ball percentage are both well above league averages, and Seager’s 38.9% showing in the latter category represents a new career high. Always something of a fly-ball hitter, Seager’s improved contact has made him the latest batter to benefit from MLB’s homer-happy reality, as his 18% homer rate is by far the highest of his career. He has also shown more patience, with a 9.9% walk rate this season after a career-worst 6.0% in 2018.
Beyond just a healed toe, Seager also took steps to improve his diet and offseason training last winter, and the early results bode well for him to remain a valuable player heading into 2020, his age-32 season. His bounce-back performance in 2019 could also revive some trade value, though the terms of Seager’s contract will be a notable obstacle.
Signed to a seven-year, $100MM contract extension by former M’s general manager Jack Zduriencik prior to the 2015 season, Seager is still owed $19MM in 2020 and $18MM in 2021, with a $15MM club option for 2022. That club option becomes guaranteed, however, in the event of a trade, effectively making it a poison pill rival teams are unlikely to swallow for a player who will be 34 on Opening Day 2022. The Mariners have been willing to cover money in other trades of veterans over the past year, though between the contracts already dealt and Felix Hernandez’s big salary coming off the books after the season, the M’s have already significantly reduced their future financial commitments. The team has just under $87MM committed to payroll in 2020.
Even the fact that Seager can again be considered something of a trade chip, however, represents a big step forward for the third baseman given his issues over the previous two seasons. Since Hernandez is expected to depart, Seager will become the longest-tenured Mariner, and perhaps a veteran bridge to the team’s next window of competitive baseball. Dipoto has insisted that his rebuilding efforts won’t be long-lasting, so there’s still a chance that Seager’s career revival could take him into a long-awaited postseason appearance while still wearing a Mariners uniform.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Love it. Perfect trade #s.
Hoping Dipoto can send Seager. Loved him in his rookie years but now he’s making too much even still.
Only 87MM committed to next year. Wonder how much of that is committed to players like EE, Bruce, Cano, and Leake? 2021 payroll should be in the 40MM. 2021 offseason will be busy for the M’s, along with the talent coming through the minors.
It’s all on google….about 27 million in those traded players.
The poison pill in his contract makes a trade unlikely. The Mariners also don’t have a 3B prospect in the pipeline, and we saw what that looked like when Seager was out.
it’s great that his offensive numbers rebounded, but his real value is the stabilizing influence of his solid defense. With Seager, Crawford and a healthy Dee Gordon, balls hit to the infield no longer look like a journey through a house of horrors.
Joe Rizzo says hi.
Rizzo is a fringe prospect at best. I doubt he tops out at more than a utility guy. Noelvi Marte is the only guy in the system who projects as an above average regular, and hopefully he can stay in the middle infield. 3B is the weakest position in the system.
I don’t think Rizzo is as bad as you make him. He is a bat first player though. If Marte can play SS as will as they seem to think they can move Crawford to 3rd and Marte can play SS. If he can’t beat Crawford out he can move to 3rd. I agree 3rd is the weakest position but there are options. Catcher has fewer options if Cal doesn’t pan out.
I am excited to see some of these guys play next week. Glad ROOT is carrying their playoff games. We also have a glut of OFers maybe we trade one for a blocked player. I was opposed to see Haniger go but for the right prospects it might be a good move. The next year will certainly be interesting.
cot’s contracts has it listed as changing to player option, not auto pickup, if he’s traded (but that’s kinda close to the poison pill deal, all things considered)
Mariners would need to eat 50% of his remaining money if they hope to get back a decent return on a slightly above average, 32 year old corner infielder. This would average out to about $9M/year for 3 years. A team without a decent 3rd baseman might find this palatable, but even at the reduced rate, you’re probably talking about an organizational prospect ranked between 15-20 of the team’s best prospects. They are not getting a team’s Top 10 prospect for Seager no matter how much of the contract they eat.
In years past, the Giants would jump at this opportunity but it sounds like they are finally committed to building a farm system and contender with a mix of prospects and smart acquisitions. Seager doesn’t fit that model anymore.
Yea real commited to rebuilding that’s why they didn’t move anyone at the deadline and now look
LOL
garbagee
Elias, Stickland, and Leake were all traded at the deadline. Encarnacion and Bruce were traded well before the deadline.
The other candidates were either injured, or fresh off the IL (as was Strickland).
Did you think Seattle was going to move banged up players to contenders for top prospects?
He’s talking about the Giants. Dorothy mentioned them finally committed to building up the farm. Though they’ve also made trades. But if you look at what he replied to I would imagine that’s the team he’s talking about. Which makes a tiny bit of sense considering they didn’t move Bum/Smith/Watson (their best chips). But he must’ve missed the Pomeranz, Black, Melancon, and Dyson deals.
Someone who comprehends , thank you !
“Seager hit .268/.340/.457 with 103 homers for the M’s between 2013-16, culminating in an outstanding 2016 campaign that saw him finish 12th in AL MVP voting on the basis of a .278/.359/.499 slash line and 30 home runs (all career bests) over 676 plate appearances. That great year was followed up, however, by a less-impressive 2017 and then a disastrous 2018.”
While Muncy hasn’t quite been as spectacular in 2019 as he was in 2018, his follow-up campaign has been more than solid — .253/.375/.525 with 33 home runs over 534 PA.
Which is better? “outstanding” and “more than solid”?
Well, “more than solid” doesn’t indicate how much more and therefore could be better or worse than “outstanding.”
But in earnest, keep in mind that Seager’s 2016 season resulted in a wRC+ of 134 and Muncy’s 2019 season is currently at 135. So, despite Muncy hitting better this season objectively, when compared to the rest of the league, it is identical to Seager’s 2016 season in terms of value. These darn juiced balls.
Melchez bud you gotta get another hobby. I don’t know why going at writers use of language on a free website gets you so fired up. They’re going to change their adjectives from time to time. If that was even written by the same guy. In any case I can’t imagine why you took the time out of your day to go back and quote that.
The writers are telling the reader what is good and what’s not. I am fully capable of deciding what is “outstanding” and what’s “more than solid”. He could have just as easily written the sentence without adding his own judgement into the line.
And you could’ve spelled “judgment” correctly but neither one is a serious offense. Feel free to make your own judgment and let Mark make his.
Really?
Chris Davis for Kyle Seager with throw in lottery tickets
The Orioles don’t want Seager Absolutely nobody wants Chris Davis.
I’ve grown to realize that maybe it would make sense to keep Seager around, if he becomes even slightly above average consistently again and, well, wants to stay with the Mariners. They still don’t have the most infield depth and Seager undertook some beneficial activities and new dietary needs to address some of the issues he was having in 2017 and 2018, which has presumably helped lead to his 2019 reconstruction. If that’s not a good mentor to set an example for whatever future ends up in Seattle, I’m not sure who else they have currently who has both balls intact and is ready to grind every game day. Sorry Mitch.
The M’s shouid probably just keep him.
If they try to trade him this off-season, they’ll likely get little in return, and end up paying for a good bit of his contract. Since they have no good internal options to replace him, they’d be eating money just to open another hole in the roster.
If he plays well next year, his trade value could improve significantly. His struggles in 2018 would look more like a fluke than decline, and he’d only be in the books for two more seasons. If he’s playing at a 4 WAR rate, that contact is a good commodity.
If Seager doesn’t bounce back next year, the M’s could just move on. There would only be one year left on his deal, so not the end on the world.
Regardless, the M’s need to bring in some talent at 3B. They’ll almost definitely need a new starter by 2021.
The writer is missing the obvious. Things at the MLB level are going quite well and on the timeline of Dipotos plan. The problem here is the writer does not acknowledge that development young players at the MLB level is necessary and that development on the field is the win. He is looking at the small picture with a short vision. Finding out that Crawford will be at SS, that Vogelbach is likely a platoon DH and not the 1B, finding the holes in Smiths game and watching him progress. These are what should be evaluated.
This writer took the easy way and wrote a cheap article to serve a narrative.
Agree, as long as they don’t bring players up too soon, like Zunino and Ackley.