Hyun-Jin Ryu has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season, and with a trip to free agency pending, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand speaks to several rival executives about how Ryu will fare on the open market this winter. It should be noted that Ryu sidestepped a chance at free agency last offseason by accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Dodgers, preferring to remain in L.A. and aim for a better platform year than his injury-shortened 2018 campaign. That strategy has worked like gangbusters, as Ryu has a 1.64 ERA, 1.1 BB/9 (both league bests), 7.00 K/BB rate, and 50.7% grounder rate over 148 1/3 frames in 2019, with only two minimal injured list stints for relatively minor issues.
With this in mind, Ryu’s long injury history and age (he’ll be 33 on Opening Day 2020) will also certainly be factors in his next contract. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Ryu seventh in his most recent power ranking of the 2019-20 free agent class, though one NL executive tells Feinsand that depending on whether some players exercise opt-out clauses or not, Ryu is “probably No. 2 if his contract ask is reasonable….This could be an interesting class to watch. It might be one of those years where teams rank guys differently based on who they like.” Gerrit Cole is the undisputed top pitcher available this winter, but other arms like Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, or Dallas Keuchel have also seemingly generated more buzz than Ryu, recent results notwithstanding. An AL talent evaluator thinks this could be to Ryu’s benefit, telling Feinsand that Ryu “may actually be viewed slightly lower than some in that group perceptually, and therefore, sign earlier. I can see Ryu signing ahead of them and jumping the market and actually getting a better deal. I think the other guys may wait longer, and waiting longer hasn’t always paid off.”
Here’s more on the Dodgers…
- Dustin May is in line for another start next week, manager Dave Roberts told MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick and other reporters, though May will also make relief appearances to get him more acclimated to working out of the bullpen. This semi-swingman usage is being deployed since the Dodgers ultimately intend to use May as a reliever in the postseason, though also need him available to make a spot start if necessary down the stretch. For instance, L.A. is two games into a run of 16 games in 16 days, so May’s start next week will give the regular rotation members a breather. “When you have a person of Dustin’s head, mindset, it makes it a better bet for us to make and especially when you have the buy-in of the player….We’re going to continue to keep our options open,” Roberts said. May has started three of his four big league appearances thus far, posting a 4.26 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 5.00 K/BB rate over 19 total innings.
- In another case of the Dodgers making early preparations for October, the team will use Kenley Jansen roughly once per series for the remainder of the season, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes. This means Jansen will be skipped for some save situations and pitch in some non-save situations, all in order to keep him regularly sharp rather than tether this workload to whether or not the Dodgers have a ninth-inning lead. It’s worth wondering if this strategy could also have to do with Jansen’s somewhat shaky performance this year, as the closer has a career-high 3.70 ERA over 48 2/3 innings. Jansen blew his sixth save chance of the season last night, and now has 26 saves in 32 chances.
- Roberts provided DiGiovanna and other reporters with updates on some injured Dodgers players. Ross Stripling (right biceps tendinitis) seems the closest to returning, as he tossed a 25-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday and has a two-inning simulated game coming up before he begins a rehab assignment. Rich Hill (flexor tendon strain) has upped his long-toss throwing to 150 feet and will next start throwing off a mound. Hill isn’t expected back until sometime in September, though his path to a return is clearer than that of Alex Verdugo, as Roberts said Verdugo is still feeling pain in his ribcage and hasn’t yet resumed baseball activities. Verdugo has been on the IL since August 6 due to a right oblique strain, and Roberts said the outfielder won’t return to action until at least the start of September.
I’m sorry, but I’d rather have Ryu than Wheeler, Bumgarner, or Keuchel.
I know that he’s up there in age for a free agent SP and he has a pretty substantial injury history, but his 2019 speaks for itself.
So you would pay him off of one year? You do know older pitchers with a career year don’t reproduce that right? Look at RA Dickey as a prime example and their are plenty more
Ryu was being compared to Wheeler, Bumgarner, and Keuchel and pretty accurately based on both the 2018 and 2019 seasons performance.
Given he plays on a pretty good team, with an exceptionally bright future he has the chance to continue his performance in the future.
Wheeler has never proved himself, MadBum was a WS hero 5 years ago, and Keuchel should have stayed with the Astros when he had the chance because he certainly isn’t lighting it up in Atlanta.
Madbum is only 29 years old and people are acting like he’s old. He’ll command more money than Ryu for sure. Ryu is a bad signing waiting to happen.
we have seen numerous career years before their free agency. his agent will push him as a second coming of jesus and a team will fall for it. foolishly, i might add!
Bumgarner is 30 years old.
Bumgarner is relatively young but has a ton of mileage on his arm. Just look at King Felix, who threw over 2000 MLB innings before his 30th birthday and now looks washed at 32.
Bumgarner gonna end this season with ~1950 career MLB innings. Don’t blame anyone for not wanting to give Bumgarner too many years on his next deal.
Bumgarner is 30 and Ryu is 32. Given the probable cost differential between Ryu and Bumgarner and Wheeler it’s certainly not crazy to say you’d prefer Ryu. I’d certainly prefer Ryu to Keuchel at this point; no matter the price difference.
Bumgarner’s peripherals are good this year, and is only 29.
No fan base other than SF can even begin to put up with his incessant snot rockets. He makes disgusting embarrassed.
You need to do your homework. Ryu was signed by Dodgers knowing that he had a small tear in his pitching shoulder, yet he put up very good numbers his first two seasons before shoulder surgery wiped out 2015 and 2016. After regaining his shoulder and arm strength mid-2018 he has been one of the best pitchers in MLB. Forget his chronological age, he is a very good starting pitcher who will get a nice contract (likely from the Dodgers)
Let’s not pretend it’s JUST “one year” that he’s been a good pitcher.
He’s 52-31 with a 2.87 ERA in his career. This is a career for him, but he was also 7-3 with a 1.97 ERA last season. Aside from 2016 (where he only appearance once and was terrible), he’s been well above average.
His only issue is staying healthy. His career high is only 152 innings. So that will definitely limit his earning power.
Yes and he has a injury history and a history of not pitching many inngs. Both which could lead to a horrible long term contract
That all depends on his market. If he’s seen as a second tier option and gets a 3/60 he may very well be a much better deal than paying Bumgarner or Wheeler +/- 100 million bucks. Ryu when healthy is very good.
You are not taking into consideration how desperate MLB teams are for pitching, both starters and relievers. Just on the West Coast Ryu will likely get very nice offers from Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Giants, A’s, and Mariners.
He’s still be 33 next year and doesn’t have a track record of pitching deep into seasons. Ryu May beat that offer but i don’t thibk it’ll be by a large margin. There’s risk in taking that gamble at his age and with durability concerns. There’s a fair amount of arms on the market this year also. Certainly more than last.
The A’s don’t spend for anyone and have a full rotation so they aren’t going to be in Ryu’s market. The Mariners aren’t a Ryu away from the postseason so I doubt they spend there after spending on Kikuchi last season. All those other teams will also be in on the other FA’s. The supply of pitchers is pretty strong.
If some team gives Wheeler $100 million I’ll laugh all the way to his next stint on the DL. He’s a collapse wrapped up in potential that will never come.
I think it’s far more likely wheeler gets 75-80. He’s the right age for an overpay considering he’s only 29 though.
I wonder if he takes the qualifying offer like Ryu and tries again next year. He’s throwing around a 4.40 ERA with 9 wins right now. On the plus side, his strikeout and walk rates are good.
Let’s say he finishes with an ERA over 4 and twelve wins. I don’t think he’ll pass up the guaranteed money with a shot at having a healthier 2020..
Certainly having his best year in the MLB so far. But he has been above average for the last few years, when not injured. Certainly there’s injury risk involved here, but he has always had a very low walk rate, throws strikes, and gets the job done as long as he’s out there. He had a bit of a rough patch in 2016, but he was working back from injury and was obviously still hurting when that happened. Ryu is a solid choice for a team to sign. I might be upset if my team gave him more than 3-4 years on a contract, but he is worth it for a couple of years.
Agree with you, Ryu doesn’t depend on high-speed fastball so he will age better than most pitchers.
92 is fast for Ryu. It’s all relative.
If he gets more than 3/60, then there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Can’t go by one year though
I just feel Jansen is going to completely suck in the playoffs but just me.
no its not just you. Jansen and Kelly should switch places imo, until Kelly begins to implode again that is…
He’s sucked all season, so yeah, most of us Dodger fans know and are concerned about the late innings in the postseason. I’d feel more confident with Baez or Kelly handling saves, and it isn’t because they are particularly good, but because Jansen is especially bad. Roberts wasn’t given any option but to manage the problem and hope Jansen can figure something out or his team can score enough runs that closing won’t matter. Not exactly the greatest postseason plan.
Blue Sky-for one of the few times, I must agree with you. Not getting a closer at the deadline was a catastrophe. That is all on the FO.
I also realize that managing the Dodgers is a dream job for Roberts. One does, however, hope that, at some point, he makes the conscious decision to grow a pair. If as you say, Roberts is just following orders from the evil Friedman, whatever he is paid is wasted money and could be used to get a quality reliever or lower ticket prices. With the team he has been given, he could be replaced by the bullpen coach.
It isn’t so much a matter of following orders. Roberts was hired by and works for Friedman, and that’s just how it works in baseball, more now than ever. Actually I like Dave Roberts. His natural enthusiasm is contagious and his people skills are second to none, as far as I can see, and that’s a much larger part of managing a ball club than most people seem to realize. They ain’t never going to lower ticket prices. That’s just a pipe dream, without the pipe. In fact they just raised them by 25% and they could do that because people will pay it. Any dollars they don’t spend means more profit for Dodgers Inc. and profit is ultimately the name of the game.
Cannot disagree with that analysis and I like Roberts, too. I appreciate that he is a players manager and works hard to build their confidence. However, his role as manager at this stage of the season is to get his team ready for the playoffs.
Sure, and to not allow the players ease up. With the ridiculous lead (and the potential to clinch in the first week of September) the team going a little flat over the last few weeks would be almost inevitable. Roberts has to motivate them to keep the unit sharp right through to the last regular season game. They are now playing for home field advantage in the World Series.
No doubt, typical Dodger Management of putting their head in the sand and hoping it all works out. I am surprised that they didn’t move Jensen and Seager before the trade deadline for a closer. The Dodgers now have 50 blown saves over the last 2 years, the most in baseball and a huge red flag. Seager basically cost the Dodgers the World Series by lying about his injury and playing in the World Series and Striking out 16 times and was totally useless. Charlie Culberson & Chris Taylor tore it up against the Cubs then got shelved for a liar and perpetually hurt player in Seagar. Dealing Seager while he still has trade value and bringing up Lux is a no brainer.. Before Seager turns into a Darren Dreifort
Um…no.
Kind of all over the place on this one, Tuffy.
I’m kind of rooting for the Dodgers this year, which is extremely rare for me.
Jansen is done as a closer. Dude has nothing but 1 pitch…. A Cutter and when it doesnt cut, he gets rocked
You mean like Mariano Rivera had the greatest closer of all time? Most closets have one pitch that is why they are closers and not starters
I’m not gonna laugh at your post for “closets”, because you clearly meant closers. I’m gonna point to the fact you brought in Mariano Rivera as an example to totally laugh at your post.
He didn’t have one pitch?
Yes he actually did have more than one pitch. My beef was the fact you used Rivera for example in talking about Jansen.
Yep, like comparing Floyd Mayweather to Ali.
Didn’t say they were comparable said most closers usually have one main pitch like Rivera for example and his cutter
It will definitely be an off-season to watch. Have the players (and agents) adjusted to the trending market in terms of asking price and expectations? Will the QO give teams pause for signing a Wheeler (will he accept it?)
Cole is the lead horse by a fairly large margin IMO. Showing durability and consistent performance. All other pitchers have have at least one red flag.
Cole will get the huge deal followed by Bumgarner. Ryu’s current season is the outlier and I don’t see any teams going out on that limb offering him a big multi-year deal.
if not for injury concerns and age, Ryu would easily be top of this class, and probably still 3rd age notwithstanding. That being said, already a few years past 30 and has a long injury history. not good.
No, it would still be Cole but this isn’t a what if league.
– Active leaders for career ERA –
1. Kershaw: 2.41
2. deGrom: 2.66
3. Ryu: 2.87
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.
.
.
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9. Cole: 3.30
– 2018-19 ERA leaders –
1. Ryu: 1.76
2. deGrom: 2.08
3. Scherzer: 2.48
4. Verlander: 2.64
5. Kershaw: 2.72
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8. Cole: 2.87
25. Bumgarnder: 3.52
40. Wheeler: 3.80
era isn’t that accurate measure of a pitcher. a relief pitcher pitching great in one outing may have 0.00 era.
Verlander and Cole haven’t been pitching to pitchers like the others.
Mets pitchers have a higher BA than White Sox DHs this year. Just cuz they’re not pitching to pitchers doesn’t mean that the 9th hitter is any good
Um, nope
“if his contract ask is reasonable”
His agent? Scott Boras. Good luck with that.
Bumgarner is relatively young but has a ton of mileage on his arm. Just look at King Felix, who threw over 2000 MLB innings before his 30th birthday and now looks washed at 32.
Bumgarner gonna end this season with ~1950 career MLB innings. Don’t blame anyone for not wanting to give Bumgarner too many years on his next deal.
Bette rr to ask for more money than less. Shot yourselve in the foot. Start high end in middle. Watch he will get 4 years and at least 80 million
Should have dealt the prospects! You would have had the closer!
Ask the Mets how that worked.
Could’ve went after Josh Hader. I’m sure the BrewCrew would’ve taken an insane offer.
Talking about Rivera and Jansen in the same sentence is disrespectful to Rivera. Mariano NEVER had any season like Jansen’s last 2. As a Dodger fan I hope he opts out but I doubt he will because no ones paying him 20 million a season after the 21 hr’s he’s given up the past 2 seasons. He tops out at 92-93, can’t locate and his cutter stop cutting after game 2 of the 2017 WS. He’s fine as an elite closer.
Done
It’s all in Jansen’s head not his arm. As a reliever, he’s logged less than 600 innings over 9 years so physically he’s not worn out. Will he ever get his head together again? Hard to say.
It’s in his head because it’s in his arm. His fastball isn’t fast and his cutter doesn’t cut. He throws a lot more sliders now but it isn’t enough to fool many hitters. Lacking a knockout pitch he tries to nibble and it isn’t working.
Maybe , just maybe this is related to the heart condition he has been battling the last few years exactly when he started to decline. Or it could just be most players aren’t hall of famers and decline with age quicker than the greats
So what do you offer Ryu considering age and injury history? 3/60? 2/50?
one year !
then he will sign elsewhere – one year would be an insult
He’s pitched his way to a 3 year deal, I believe. He’s young enough to justify that commitment. Anymore than that would surprise me with 4 being the absolute most I could see a team going. But I wouldn’t want him on a 4 year deal
I think he resigns with Dodgers for 2 or 3 years. It might be like 2 years with an option for years 3 and 4 at about 20 million per year. Dodgers like to sign there own free agents. (Kershaw, Jansen, and Turner ).
Way too much obsession with his injury history. The only significant one was to his shoulder and he’s well past that now. Nothing else has been major or chronic. If Ryu was pitching somewhere other than in the Pacific timezone and in games played when most of the fans and media are already in bed, no question Ryu would be seen as one of the top starters if not the best in baseball. Hugely underrated. Had the same reaction when this site placed him seventh in the power rankings. Like, really? His style of pitching is also conducive to a long career, and you wouldn’t know it to look at him, but he’s a great overall athlete. Other than that, not a lot to see here. I hope the rest of baseball continues to underrate him, so the Dodgers can get him back.
He hasn’t amassed more than 155 innings since 2013. He could be pitching in NY and he’d have durability concerns. Don’t flatter yourself on it being a pacific time zone bias.
Syndergaard threw 183 in 2016 and gets durability questions.
Flatter myself, what kind of nonsense it that? I remember the same garbage arguments being made when Kuroda became a free agent. He’d pitched great for LA but he was going to get bombed in the big, bad ALE. Turns out he was even better with the Yankees. Dodger fans weren’t surprised, they knew how good he was. The reason the most of the rest of baseball didn’t know? Well, you just ask anyone in the game about that.
Ryu has no chronic injury history. You could look it up.
You feel one way about something then get real defensive about a counterpoint. You find me a starting pitcher who hasn’t thrown 155 innings since 2013 who doesn’t come w a durability knock. Best of luck doing so.
Defensive? Hilarious.
Just try facts. They help. Well, most of us anyway.
Claiming a PT bias isn’t a fact by any means nor was that comment based solely on this interaction.
And I’d agree that’s it bodes well that he doesn’t have one chronic condition plaguing him but for one injury or another he hasn’t been able to top 155 innings since 2013. That’s 5 years of missing the mark. No timezone is influencing that. Consistent smaller injuries aren’t nothing. Not a real surprise to see questions about his durability.
But hey, have a good day.
The difference between chronic and acute is more important than a number, especially since you haven’t seemed to concern yourself with understanding the number. That’s the point.
But hey, the sports media bias towards the eastern timezones is a fact. I just heard Nomar Garciaparra talking about this recently, and he should know, having played on both coasts. We see the results of this over and over. We’re seeing it right now. Again. Not a fiction. People in the game know about it, and the fans can understand it too, if they are interested.
While that is true it doesn’t explain why Ryu hasn’t pitched more than 155 innings since 2013. I wouldn’t give a big long term deal to an older pitcher with durability problems
If you want to know what explains it, you have to look behind the numbers not just at them. If you don’t find any chronic issues then you are probably reading a history of bad luck, unless your medical theory is the groin is connected to the elbow.
The length of his future deal will be predicated more on age than any other factor. I see him being good for three years, and if stats drive the value, for at least $25M per.
Roberts is why they don’t have a World Series
Yep. Had nothing to do with the players not executing.
I think he resigns with Dodgers for 2 or 3 years. It might be like 2 years with an option for years 3 and 4 at about 20 million per year. Dodgers like to sign there own free agents. (Kershaw, Jansen, and Turner ).
That AL talent evaluator shouldn’t have a job. There was also a quote from him that he would rather start Keuchel in game 1 of a playoff series. If Keuchel is really going to generate more buzz why did he have to wait until June to sign? Ryu is easily the 2nd best free agent SP and these dumb narratives about him will work in the Dodgers favor to bring him back
I’ve been waiting for the mean reversion but it hasn’t taken place yet.. Over last 2 seasons Ryu is a combined 19-6 with a 1.76 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 6.5 K/BB. Opponent BA, SLG, OBP, OPS, HR allowed in last 2 years all down relative to career stats. He did not pitch very well overall last post-season. 7 innings shutout ball against the Braves, but struggled against Brewers and Red Sox. Should be interesting if Dodgers decide to keep him and his overall market. I think he deserves a nice 3-year deal at $20mm AAV, and maybe even 4 year in high teens per year if there is a market for him.
Ryu was fine in the postseason last year. Game 6 at MIL was an absolute clunker but other than that he did his part. Dont see how you can say he was bad in both game 2s at BOS/MIL he kept them in both those games. And the idea he will regress is just not fair to him. Ok he doesn’t strike guys out, but he doesn’t walk people and he knows how to pitch. Why is that such a hard concept to see instead of “regression to due”
Regression is not about strikeouts but rather what he has done in his entire career, MLB and Korean League. The numbers that he has put up in 2018 and 2019, in a rather small sample size is miles better than what he has put up in both the U.S. and Korea. It is not common but obviously with each successful start it’s becoming reality. We shall see. The biggest factor in the last 2 years is his walk rate meaningfully declining. Typically you don’t see that without some negative implications on allowing more hits, etc.. He’s walking less without getting hit more. These kind of stats can only happen if he’s more precise on the corners and mixing pitches and changing speeds. He has never had the amazing stuff but he’s pitching very well. Well, against BOS he didn’t go 5 innings and gave up 4 runs all earned. For Ryu’s bar that is not pitching well. Granted BOS had a very a good lineup so understandable.
rigbt now there seem to be two teams uniquely able to absorb any rest needed by Ryu… Astros & Dodgers. I sense the Dodgers even more so. I can see Ryu getting 3yrs at about $24M per with maybe $3M wiggle room. Perhaps the 3rd and maybe a 4th with vesting options?