We previewed the upcoming offseason’s qualifying market for potential free-agent hitters earlier Friday. We’ll do the same here with pitchers who may become free agents in a few months (bear in mind that possible Dodgers free agents Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenley Jansen are ineligible because they’ve both received QOs in the past)…
Starters
- Gerrit Cole, Astros: This is an easy one for the Astros, who acquired Cole from the Pirates entering 2018 and have since gotten elite production from the former No. 1 overall pick. Cole, who will turn 29 in a month, is the only player in the upcoming free-agent class with a realistic chance at a $200MM contract. The strikeout-heavy right-hander has notched a 2.87 ERA/3.07 FIP with 12.9 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9 in 150 2/3 innings this season.
- Stephen Strasburg, Nationals: Another former top pick, Strasburg still has four years and $100MM left on his current contract. Howeve, he’ll have to seriously consider opting out at this rate. If he does, the Nationals will qualify him. Strasburg, a 31-year-old righty, owns a 3.26 ERA/2.93 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 2.18 BB/9 and a 50.9 percent groundball rate through 140 2/3 frames.
- Madison Bumgarner, Giants: For most of the season, it looked as if the Giants were going to trade Bumgarner, which would have exempted him from a qualifying offer. The club’s recent charge up the standings led it to retain the franchise icon at the deadline, though, and it’s sure to qualify Bumgarner if it doesn’t sign him to an extension before free agency. The left-handed Bumgarner, who turned 30 onThursday, has worked to a 3.74 ERA/3.66 FIP with exemplary strikeout and walk rates (9.02 K/9, 1.87 BB/9) over 139 2/3 innings.
- Zack Wheeler, Mets: Like Bumgarner, Wheeler looked like a strong trade candidate for most of the season, but he didn’t move before the deadline. Barring an extension, the flamethrowing righty, 29, is another QO waiting to happen. While Wheeler has only logged a 4.45 ERA in 131 1/3 innings this year, he has registered a 3.51 FIP with 9.87 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9.
- Cole Hamels, Cubs: Hamels has been out for more than a month because of an oblique strain, but he’ll be back Saturday. Assuming he picks up where he left off prior to the injury, a qualifying offer looks clear-cut for the Cubs, who are currently paying Hamels $20MM. When healthy, the soon-to-be 36-year-old Hamels has justified that lofty price tag. The accomplished southpaw has recorded a 2.98 ERA/3.59 FIP, posted 8.76 K/9 against 3.16 BB/9, and put up a 51.1 percent grounder rate in 99 2/3 frames.
- Jake Odorizzi & Kyle Gibson, Twins: These are highly debatable cases, but it’s inarguable the two righties have acquitted themselves well for a terrific Twins team this season. Odorizzi, playing his age-29 season, has seen his average fastball velocity rise to a career-high 92.9 mph, helping him to a strong 3.73 ERA/3.92 FIP with a personal-best 9.36 K/9 (against 3.06 BB/9) in 108 2/3 innings. Although Odorizzi has always had difficulty generating ground balls (including this year, having done so at a 32.5 percent clip), home runs have never really haunted the former Royal and Ray since his career began in 2012. Gibson, who will turn 32 in October, has also clocked an all-time best mean fastball velo – 93.4 – en route to his top strikeout rate (9.13 per nine, to go with 2.55 walks). Unlike Odorizzi, Gibson has always been solid at inducing grounders. While he has done so 48.2 percent of the time this year, his home run-to-fly ball rate is sitting at an unappealing 18.4 percent. Still, Gibson has managed a respectable 4.10 ERA/3.98 FIP over 116 1/3 innings.
Relievers
- Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: In order for Chapman to receive a qualifying offer, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM left on his contract. It’s a realistic possibility for the high-velo left-hander, though he’ll turn 32 in February and will have to keep in mind that fellow star closer Craig Kimbrel struggled mightily to find a contract in free agency last winter after getting a QO. However, Kimbrel eventually pulled in a three-year, $43MM guarantee from the Cubs. Chapman has slumped of late, and he has blown five saves – his most since 2013 – in 32 chances. But Chapman has still notched a 2.81 ERA/2.52 FIP with 12.74 K/9 and 4.32 BB/9 in 41 2/3 frames.
- Will Smith, Giants: Smith joined his teammate Bumgarner in looking as if he’d change uniforms prior to the deadline for the past few months. The 30-year-old lefty is still in San Francisco with the deadline having come and gone, though, and is likely to land a QO as a result. Long a quality reliever, Smith has enjoyed one of his most effective seasons this year. He has pitched to a 2.66 ERA/2.73 FIP with 12.74 K/9, 2.09 BB/9 and 26 saves in 28 tries.
- Dellin Betances, Yankees: Qualifying the four-time All-Star setup man may have looked likely a few months back, but Betances has since missed the entire season because of shoulder and lat injuries. The Yankees expect Betances back before the campaign concludes, though there may not be enough time for the hard-throwing 31-year-old to make a QO case.
Laibax
I don’t see Smith or Betances getting QO’s
Yeetus
That’s because they haven’t got them yet. They may get them after the season has TERMINATED.
JoeBrady
That’s because they haven’t got them yet. They may get them after the season has TERMINATED.
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LOL! You didn’t think that was what Latbax was saying?
dobsonel
Betances definitely will if healthy regardless of performance. I doubt he accepts.
Gmen777
If the Giants aren’t planning on spending much this offseason (other than a potential MadBum extension I don’t see what else they’d spend on tbh) I can see them offering him a QO. If he accepts well you get a good reliever for another season that you can potentially flip at the deadline, if he doesn’t well you get the pick if he doesn’t get Kimbrel’d.
Phanatic 2022
But will he be healthy? Also, new look Yankees with a budget won’t offer
KnicksFanCavsFan
Yanks are not on a budget. bets isnt going to be expensive either
JoeBrady
Everyone is on a budget, they are all just different sized budgets.
Betances might not be super-expensive, but the NYY have a tough decision to make. He automatically accepts a QO, but then that makes the NYY BP about $60M.
Or they let him hit the market, which starts with $30M/3, assuming health.
Joseph12992
If Strasburg opts out and MadBum reaches FA it is actually a pretty interesting year for FA pitchers. I think we could see some larger contracts to SP this next offseason
Dixon Miaz
Can definitely see smith and Bum getting QO’s. That is, if they don’t keep Bumgarner.
13Morgs13
Cole is going to win a CY Young award or 2 in his career. Houston will lock him up
Cole Shepherd
I suspect he’d sign a lower deal to stay here…but I’m not sure WHAT Luhnow might do on ANY decision. Dude’s a genius above my pay grade.
Yeetus
I am sure that the ASTROS gm will want Cole back on his TEAM. He is a GOOD player
Cole Shepherd
Well, our GM is a smart cookie. I just love what he’s done with our team.
So, you know the thinking behind the letting Morton walk decision?
Of COURSE Cole is a GREAT pitcher, as was and is Charlie Morton.
And financials enter into it also.
Santee Alley
I think he just making fun of your capitalization.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
“I suspect he’d sign a lower deal to stay here…”
Clearly forgot who his agent is…
1) Giants
2) Angels
3) Padres
4) Dodgers
Honorable mentions: Astros, Yankees
spinach
Phillies top that list.
Strosfn79
Angels are top on the
Henry Silvestre
with what $$ they got some expiring contracts in a yr or 2 like Sprimger and they just took on Greinke 35 mil per for 3-4 yrs more.. Cole 100% is leaving Houston
Cole Shepherd
I was pretty sure of that too, until a couple of days ago. How often have you correctly foreseen a Luhnow move?
yamsi1912
Cole will be playing for his hometown team in 2020.
Cole Shepherd
You hope?
yamsi1912
Well their focus will be pitching pitching and pitching and they have the money for it. If they don’t land him Eppler will be out of a job.
Cole Shepherd
I wonder if he and Luhnow are discussing 4 for $120 even as we type. But again, I NEVER have any idea WHAT Luhnow might be up too. Nor, judging by the punditry, does anybody else.
Selkies
Cole ALREADY has his mind MADE UP. He’s just biding his TIME in Houston. He’ll win a CHAMPIONSHIP and then enter free agency where he will sign with the team he’s ALWAYS DREAMED OF playing for…
THE CHICAGO WHITE SOX!
/S
Djboy2898
He will be playing with his brother in-law next year
niched
Cole grew up a Yankees fan. Not a given he’ll sign with them but a high possibility
Phanatic 2022
Nope… they tried
ChiSox_Fan
Ivan Nova absent from the list.
nymetsking
Clearly he should be at the top of the list. Probably a systems error.
lebowskiachiever
Kenley Jansen is signed through 2021., so the first paragraph can use an edit.
amk3510
He has an opt out but he won’t use it.
lebowskiachiever
Ah. Gotcha.
angelsinthetroutfield
Can you QO a guy who opts out of a contract? I figured Strasburg would be exempt from getting a qualifying offer from WAS
braves25
Yes you can! You can even decline a team option and still give them a qualifying offer.
frank_costanza
Hard to see Odorizzi and Gibson getting QO’s because I want the Phillies to sign one of them and I wouldn’t like that. The same goes for Hamels.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
I could see Gibby signing with Philly.
steelerbravenation
I wonder how much and how long Hamels would be looking for
Wouldn’t mind bringing Kuechel back and signing Hamels if the price/years were right
Show Me Your Tatis
Hamels already blocked a trade to Houston once.
Selkies
He’s a Braves fan.
frank_costanza
If the Phillies want Hamels then he will be a Phillie without question. He’s already spoke about how he wants to come back, as recently as this year.
jonnymac2for1
Twins? Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson don’t look anything alike. Must be fraternal.
bradthebluefish
Everyone but Bentances should get a QA, and that’s only because of his health. Everyone else is worth the QA even if they accept it. Bentances could be had cheaper than the QA hence why I don’t think he’s worth the QA unless he is light out for the rest of the season + playoffs.
Old User Name
He isn’t worth the AAV but he would get a multi year deal worth much more than his QO would get him. If they offer, he’ll likely reject it.
astros_fan_84
Wade Miley? Maybe a slight overpay, but he’s been great for Houston this year.
frank_costanza
I can’t imagine Strasburg opting out. Given the recent trend of the market I don’t see how you turn down four years, $100 mil thinking you could do better on the market. The same can be said for Chapman, though it might be easier for him because he could probably get another year tacked on. But it’s a big gamble for sure.
Old User Name
Strasburg’s injury history further complicates matters.
Chapman’s agent needs to feel things out with the Yankees FO before opting out.
titanic struggle
Alex Wood…
spinach
Hill I would say is 50/50 or better. Pineda has about as good a chance as Odo and Gibson. Porcello is having a bad year but if he finishes with strong starts will get one.
Mikel Grady
Can the cubs have all the bullpen free agents ?