The Twins’ need for bullpen help has been apparent for much of the season, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they’ve “definitely checked on” a pair of the market’s top options: Blue Jays closer Ken Giles and Padres closer Kirby Yates. Both right-handers are controlled through the 2020 season via arbitration. Neal notes that the Blue Jays and Padres both had scouts on hand to watch the Twins’ Triple-A club recently, as did the Diamondbacks and Pirates (presumably, in addition to multiple other organizations).
Minnesota has seen the division-rival Indians creep back into the divisional picture with a six-game winning streak to close out the first half. The Twins took two out of three from the Rangers to finish out the half and were in position for a potential sweep Sunday. However, the offense couldn’t break a tie before the ’pen allowed a trio of runs in the top of the 11th inning.
Left-hander Taylor Rogers has quietly broken through as one of baseball’s best relievers. He boasts a 1.56 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.62 HR/9 and a 46.9 percent grounder rate in 86 2/3 innings dating back to last June, when he began heavily relying on a slider that transformed his arsenal and perhaps his career. Minnesota has also received strong output from 30-year-old rookie right-hander Ryne Harper.
Looking past that pairing, Tyler Duffey has generally been sharp but has stumbled recently, with runs allowed in three of four outings. Trevor May and Matt Magill are both missing bats at high clips but also issuing far too many walks. Offseason signee Blake Parker has has a solid ERA and 10 saves but is averaging a sky-high 2.03 HR/9 with too many walks himself. He’s unlikely to sustain his 3.77 ERA (5.72 FIP, 4.74 xFIP). Journeyman Mike Morin has a 3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings but has only fanned 11 hitters in that time.
Those seven names lead Twins relievers in innings pitched, but Minnesota has utilized another 13 arms out of the ’pen so far in 2019. Most have struggled considerably. Twins relievers do rank either 12th or 13th in the Majors in collective ERA, FIP and xFIP, but it’s been a top-heavy unit that, like any contender’s bullpen, would benefit significantly from another experienced late-inning arm.
Giles, 28, is earning $6.3MM and is arguably in the midst of his best season in the Majors. Through 31 innings, he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA with a career-high 15.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9. Josh Hader is the only qualified pitcher in baseball with a higher swinging-strike rate than Giles’ ridiculous 20.4 percent mark. Giles also ranks in the top 10 in terms of opponents’ chase rate (39.1 percent) and average fastball velocity (97.3 mph). With the Blue Jays in a rebuild and already well out of playoff contention, he’s among the safest bets to be traded in all of MLB.
Yates, 32, has been even better. The second waiver-claim-turned-relief-ace the Padres have unearthed in the past couple of seasons, Yates erupted as one baseball’s premier relievers upon adopting a splitter that ranks as one of the game’s most effective offerings. He’s recorded video-game numbers so far in 2019, with a 1.15 ERA, 13.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.23 HR/9 and a 48 percent grounder rate. He’s being paid at an even more affordable $3.0625MM rate in 2019, but San Diego, unlike Toronto, is firmly in the postseason picture. The Padres are an insurmountable 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West but sit just two games out of a Wild Card spot. Reports have indicated that the Padres would need an “overwhelming offer” or “unforeseen haul” in order to move Yates.
It stands to reason that the Twins have checked in far more relievers than just these two, of course. Twins brass has surely checked in on the majority of relievers publicly known to be available — and quite likely several that don’t stand out as readily apparent trade candidates. It’s perhaps of some note that both players listed are controlled beyond the 2019 campaign, though Minnesota has also been connected to Giants closer Will Smith — a free agent at season’s end. If the Twins do prefer relievers controlled through at least 2020, some other options would include San Francisco’s Sam Dyson (profiled here last Friday), Detroit’s Shane Greene, Baltimore’s Mychal Givens, Seattle’s Roenis Elias and Kansas City’s Ian Kennedy.
Wahoo What a Finish!
If the Twins get bullpen help of this magnitude and they stay relatively healthy the rest of the way the division is theirs for the taking. Now if they don’t get bullpen help for the 2nd half that lead is going to evaporate very quickly.
Steven Chinwood
The lead has already been cut in half in just a few weeks.
martras
Yeah, well that happens when the team chasing you is 16-5 since 6/14 (.762). If the Indians maintain a .762 winning percentage this year the Twins will have to settle on a wild card or sitting at home.
Of course, nobody maintains a .762 winning percentage and the lead over the division has a lot more to do with the Indians having an insane run than the Twins playing mediocre for a couple weeks.
Bocephus
Perhaps the Twins were just playing way, way above their heads.
martras
Of course the Twins were playing a bit over their heads (not way, way). They were 47-23 as of 6/16 (.671) and had the best record in MLB.
Their offense is real. It’s extremely dangerous with by far the highest ISO in the league despite not striking out a whole lot. They have tremendous depth, a solid rotation and an adequate bullpen. They’re a good, but flawed team as they lack a true ace or multiple excellent arms in the bullpen to close out games.
We’re 89 games into the season and that’s too long to be a complete illusion.
someoldguy
Was it last year or the year before Cleveland went on a 20 game winning streak? the old guy forgets
johnrealtime
two years ago
Jimmyv22
Cleveland is also playing the softest part of their schedule, While the Twins went through one of their toughest. Cleveland ends the year playing Boston, New York TB, Toronto, and they have 13 games left against the Twins.
SuperSinker
I’m excited to see what Giles brings back.
Wahoo What a Finish!
It’s looking like the reliever market is going to be extremely shallow so I’d expect the Jays to fleece a team for Giles.
VegasSDfan
Historically, relievers don’t bring a lot in retirn in trades.
99% of the time you end up disappointed.
louwhitakerisahofer
But that 1% could kind you Gleyber Torres and more for a Chapman type closer. I don’t think Giles gets that much, but anything is possible.
SuperSinker
Koji Uehara got the Orioles Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. Andrew Miller got the Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez. Mark Melancon got the Pirates Felipe Vazquez. Teams will pay premiums for quality relievers. Giles is a quality reliever.
boltz82
Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson.
boltz82
Just recently Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney.
Sky14
You seem to be proving the opposite point. Most of those players weren’t seen as major pieces at the time of the trades. Even Eduardo’s prospect status was sliding at the time.
bostonbob
Boltz, don’t remind me
whyhayzee
Lowe and Varitek for Slocum. The Sox giveth and Sox taketh. Yes, there have been some historically bad trades with relief pitchers over the years.
Pablo
I think the twins wouldn’t be fooled into looking just at this year. He was a change of scenery trade not too long ago.
SuperSinker
His entire career demonstrates that he’s pretty damn elite
its_happening
Giles should be at the All Star game. He’s been outstanding this year.
ThePriceWasRight
Agree. Not sure why Stroman is there.
Socrates Curveball
Teams spending time with Twins AAA Club tells us Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon & Stephen Gonslaves (potentially Lamonte Wade) are the chips twins are willing to include in deals. Not going to sell off their talented position players (Larnach, Kiriloff or Royce Lewis). Smart.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
Larnach’s nice, but I’d deal him in a heartbeat for Vazquez.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
My toaster’s nice, but I’d deal it in a heartbeat for a new car.
Not sure how the guy with the new car feels about it, though.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
Not talking about 1 for 1, Pirates would obviously hang up immediately, I’m talking about Larnach being the centerpiece.
Gotta believe Larnach, Gordon, and Jeffers would be enough, right?
swartnp7
If I’m the Pirates, the Vazquez offer would likely begin with Kirilloff. No Alex, no trade probably.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
I wouldn’t count on that, the Twins system is pretty deep with players almost as talented as Kirilloff.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
No. There is just no reason to trade Vazquez (or Marte, for that matter). And one thing people seem to forget. The Pirates can have Marte for 3 more years after this, two options and then can issue a QO to retain him or get the comp pick. Same applies to Vazquez after his deal ends.
Also, the Pirates have Bell at 1st (with Will Craig behind him), they have Moran at 3B (with Ke”Bryan Hayes behind him) Newman as SS (with Cole Tucker behind him) plus Marte, Polanco (for now), Reynolds, Swaggerty, coming up in the OF. Plus, some wild cards like Oneill Cruz coming.
Adam Frazier and Elias Diaz are doing OK or better. So they could use more depth as 2B and C. But you don’t trade an All Star for 2B and C depth.
If a team blows them away with young blue chip TOR pitchers, then maybe, but otherwise, no reason to trade Vazquez.
martras
Of course the Pirates are going to demand a massive overpay (Kiriloff or something ridiculous like that) for a Vazquez. Felipe is under team control for cheap for 2.5yrs and he’s still relatively inexpensive for the 2 years after that, provided he keeps up elite performance levels into his 30s.
For the Twins, it doesn’t make sense to overpay for a relief arm who maxes out at 2.0 WAR per season (about 1 win over a good, but not elite relief arm). For the Pirates, it doesn’t make sense to trade a likely major asset to the organization for years into the future unless a team is willing to overpay.
martras
CLKR, I’m not sure who you are talking about in regard to “almost as talented as Kirilloff” considering Kirilloff is currently looked at as one of the best prospects in all of baseball.
I’m assuming you might be comparing him to Larnach or Rooker? Larnach was 2 years older than Kirilloff in A+ ball, a far inferior hitter at the level, and with less speed/defensive value projected than Kirilloff right now. They’re not in the same league, prospect status wise.
Rooker is nearing 25, and while he’s put up some very impressive numbers at AAA recently, his overall K rate and athleticism gives a lot of pause to anybody associating him with the elite ceiling Kirilloff currently has.
martras
Gonsalves would bring back a nice PTBNL and Wade could be a piece in a mediocre relief rental; however, Rooker and Gordon are both assets who could headline the Twins picking up a high quality reliever.
ian 2
I would imagine Gordon is on the block considering Arreaz’s season and with Javier, Lewis and a few other solid enough MI prospects.
ThePriceWasRight
not sure any of rooker, gordon or gonsalves nets a decent closer with term alone. maybe a package of two of those could net one.
groundhog5150
Yates will only go to the Twins if some combination of players from both teams include Kiriloff.
The Padres biggest organisational hole is a left-handed OF power bat.
astros_fan_84
I wonder if Giles can play on a good team? He has been great with Toronto and Philly, but failed epically in Houston.
SuperSinker
He wasn’t even that bad in Houston. He’s got a sub-3 ERA in 325 big league innings, almost all high leverage. He’s very good
astros_fan_84
He was that bad in Houston. He was completely unreliable. He was literally unusable in the 2017 WS run.
His Philly and Toronto numbers say something else. Both of those franchises aren’t competing. It’s fair to wonder if he can’t handle pitching for a contender?
JaysForDays
Or maybe, more realistically, …he just had a bad season/ few months…
Rich Hill’s Elbow
I like Giles, but I’m a little concerned about him either falling apart in the 2nd half or in the postseason (performance-wise and or emotionally). And while I don’t have all the numbers on Yates, I’m even more concerned about how moving away from Petco Park would affect his performance.
Definitely wouldn’t complain if the Twins dealt for either, I just don’t like the idea of giving up an “overwhelming offer” for either because they’re really not worth that much. The only relievers that are worth that kind of package are Iglesias, Vazquez, and Diaz. And if the FO deems that as too expensive, there’s always Givens, Doolittle, and Smith.
mlbfan1978
Ha! Yates has been better than any pitcher you named as “worth that kind of package”. Petco isn’t the pitchers park it used to be. All of the development has changed the skyline and how the ball plays.
ThePriceWasRight
still better than American Small Park but agree, why he has Yates behind those three is crazy. Especially Iglesias, the guy who actually was replaced already on his own team.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
I’m not saying the Padres wouldn’t get a big return for Yates, it’s just that all of those three not only have better stuff, but they all have 1-2 more seasons of controllability than Yates as well which is an important thing to consider because of the volatility of relievers.
However, since Iglesias’ stock has taken a considerable hit this season Yates will surely will cost more, but not a whole lot more.
Pablo
Yates is old. A good season doesn’t mean any team is going to give up their future for him. Vasquez has a long cheap contract and a history of being good… as even said in the article Yates was a waiver claim.
stymeedone
Edwin Diaz was young with a cheap contract. How’s that working out for the Mets.? If you’re looking for a reliever for the stretch drive, get someone who’s hot now. This is the year your team is in the hunt. No one can be certain about next year. Yates is the hot pick.
Wolverines2
Maybe you guys should look at the numbers that Yates has put up over the last 3 seasons.
Wolverines2
He looked ok saving three games in a row in LA. Have you seen how many homeruns the Padres have hit at home this year? And how many opponents have hit there in recent years? Petco is a strict pitcher’s park = old narrative/inaccurate.
davengmusic
As an Astros fan, I really do hope the Twins trade for Giles. I can’t think of a guy with those kinds of stats that I’d LEAST like to have when it matters most. NYY and BOS beat Giles like a drum, and HOU’s hitters are patient enough to wait out his wildness and either take a base or destroy a meat pitch. All his big success comes against crap teams or in the regular season. Turn up the pressure, and he wilts. MIN should try for Yates.
SuperSinker
Trash take
csspackler
Yates
Home: 0-2 1.21 ERA 16 saves
Road: 0-0 1.08 ERA 15 saves
The Petco “Pitchers’ Park” thing is a myth.
Taejonguy
strength of opponent matters here, as do the other ballparks. not to mention sample size…
Wolverines2
Are the Dodgers good? How about the Yankees? Do you think the Padres only play bad teams?
Taejonguy
that is my point, kinda. iver a small sample like you give one team could be in a stretch where they play non playoff teams while the other is playing the opposite. if you use s small same size then each game becomes more important with regards to competitive balance.
Wolverines2
Diaz? Dude, I think you are reading a pre-season prediction magazine or something…Yates has arguably been the best closer in baseball. Diaz has been a mess. Not even close in terms of current value.
SanDiegoTom
If I’m the padres, I’m cashing in on Yates and focusing on 2020.
PadSquad.619
I agree with this take. Its pretty much the last Padre fire sale trade piece. Get a huge haul. focus on 2020. Plus I believe Baez or Munoz could be the closer of the future in time.
beersy
While I agree with your “focus on 2020”, I do not think the Padres can rely on Baez or Munoz next season and if they are looking to contend, they will need a good bullpen. Any other year I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Yates, but with this years bullpen being in total disarray, I worry that the bullpen brings a possible contender next year down. A return to form for Stammen and a healthy Castillo next season would ease my concern, but we can’t count on that.
The way I see it, if Preller and Co. can get another near ready top prospect, make the deal, if not, hold onto to Yates for next year.
Injediwetrust
Craig Stammen is a free agent in 2020 and would be shocked to see him back. Building a pen has never been an issue.
There are almost a dozen options either hurt or in Amarillo/ El Paso. Many of which will be rule 5 eligible and they need to sort out whos worth protecting.
Kirby needs to be moved and if they really believe in him, resign him as a free agent after the 2020 season.
beersy
If the Padres even have 2 better options than what they have throwing out in the bullpen now, I wish they would bring them up to start the 2nd half. This bullpen has blown too many games this year. Start sorting these guys out now and don’t wait for next year.
Show Me Your Tatis
Stammen FA after this season
padreforlife
It’s not bad idea. Closers for most part can’t be counted on year to year. Padres aren’t ready this year for postseason run
mlbfan1978
I agree and disagree. While I don’t see them making a run and feel that while the wildcard is within reach, other teams in the mix are either better suited for the stretch run or are more willing to make a big trade splash which will ultimately push the Padres out of contention.
On the other hand. From the business stand point. The possibility of making the playoffs has a huge financial impact on what they will do. The amount of money brought in from even one playoff series is huge!
Curious to see what they decide to do.
Wolverines2
The problem with the business side is that it is an incredible risk for what might even be a series. Best case scenario, you are playing in a 1 game wild card playoff. As a life long Padres fan and daily viewer of the team, I can assure you that they will not be winning the division – this year.
TennVol
Giles has really flourished in Toronto. He is ultra competitive which is where things went wrong early in his career as he needed to mature. He isn’t the first early 20 yr old to have that problem. Every time the camera pans to the bullpen I see him talking with one or a couple of the younger pen guys and showing them different grips on the ball or delivery stances or gesturing on how balls break and other tidbits. I wish Toronto would keep him(not a free agent until 2021) and then sign him long term as a core piece if he continues to flourish. I wish Toronto would trade Galvis or Sogard and bring up Bichette and let the core win and lose together and then sign Cole and Bauer next year to front your starting staff while Thornton, Borucki, fill the 3rd and 4th starter roles and plug in Foley/Panone as 5th starter while we await Pearsons 104mph fastball arrival. And Pardhino the year after that.
jimmertee
Frank, I like to get kind of thinking for the Jays.
Unfortunately the Rogers board won’t allow it. They are trying to hold the payroll where it is in hopes of making it look better on the balance sheet.
ThePriceWasRight
doesnt bauer have one more year of team control?
Show Me Your Tatis
Bauer has one more year of control
ThePriceWasRight
If I’m the twins I would reach out to the Jay’s about a Giles/Smoak package. They could use a Lefty 1b bat to platoon with Cron and i worry about Cron’s ability to last through a playoff run if playing every day (though I know they have Sano or Marwin giving him a breather every so often)
jdgoat
I’d love to see Giles and Stroman go together to bring back a package centred around Kirilloff with secondary pieces. I understand trading them separately maximizes their value, but having another top prospect on top of Vlad and Bo is tempting.
its_happening
So you want to deal Stroman and Giles for a package centred around a RF/1B? You don’t think SP is a priority? CF? Bichette is still struggling at SS? Jays just extended Grichuk. Jays have Alford whom they haven’t quit on. Vlad may need to shift to 1B.
You’re still firmly all about Kirilloff?
TheBoatmen
I would take that that deal for Kirilloff. Could flip him for elite pitching. I’d keep him and trade Alford, Hernandez and any other infielder not named Vladdy or Biggio for pitching. Point is if you can get a top 10 prospect you take it and figure out the rest later.
its_happening
I understand your thinking. I’m asking what the actual trade itself is. You’re not trading Stroman and Giles for just Kirilloff so what’s the package?
jimmertee
Jays need pitching, pitching, pitching.
Forget more position players unless it is a superstar in the making and not 1st base. Jays have two 1b already. Tellez who is developing nicely as he learns to hit with power the other way and Vlad jr who will eventually be a superstar. Vlad Jr can’t play 3rd base. He’ll make a star like play at 3rd then a dud plays the next chance.
its_happening
There is 1 position player I’d go after on Minnesota to either play 3B or 2B in a deal involving Giles. That would be Luis Arraez. All he does is mash. Add in a SP and make it happen.
Twins will say no because he will replace Schoop next year. I don’t blame them. Atlanta should be Toronto’s target for pitching, dangling everyone.
bbatardo
I can’t see the Padres dealing Yates unless they hid a skid closer to the deadline or some team wants to grossly overpay. Yates is highly underrated even with putting up good numbers the last 2 years. He’s really learned how to pitch and doesn’t just rely on his stuff to get hitters out. That splitter of his is very nasty and even when hitters make contact they rarely barrel it.
steelerbravenation
Giles going to the Braves for Allard mark my words !!!!!
SuperSinker
Hahaha no. Ian Anderson probably keeps the phone line connected.
bravesfan
Allard for Giles isn’t a bad conversation starter. We’d prob have to throw another minor leaguer in there and cash. But at the end of the day, I don’t think this would get the deal done. Other teams would likely offer better, and even if other teams did, we likely wouldn’t offer “this much” to make our team better.
steelerbravenation
Definitely another minor leaguer involved but the bigger of the 2 would be Allard and if the Blue Jay fans think they are getting more than that you are crazy. You are not talkin bout Andrew Miller, Brad Hand or Aroldis Chapman here. Giles does not have that kinda track record for that kind of demand. Especially when better relievers could possibly be available. Anderson is untouchable.
Cheeseman Forever
Maybe it’s just me, but almost every story at this time of year is about 2/3 of the teams “checking on” 2/3 of the players. That way, when a trade takes place (or doesn’t), MLB Trade Rumors is never wrong.
nowheretogobutup
I say if you’re going to trade Yates get a SP back in return. Yates has been lights out for two yrs. and the guy has 30 saves already. Age only defines one thing in baseball if your a RP you learn fast what it takes to continue your successes as you turn past 30.
Padres would not be in second place if not for Yates. He needs to bring in at least three players from AAA to even think about a trade, one of those a strong top 50 SP.
PadSquad.619
What does Yates brig back from Twins…? With how preller trades I could see a one for one deal. No Package just high ranking prospect (paddack/rodney) (Pomeranz/Espinoza) (Hand/Mejia)
Rich Hill’s Elbow
How about Javier, Celestino, and Thorpe??
sdpadsfan11
I don’t see the Twins as a fit either. The Braves make more sense as a trade partner. The Braves fit the needs of the Padres as they have both top pitching and CF prospects in their system. Possibly Yates for Waters or maybe the Braves soured a bit on Wright and would let him go in order to acquire Yates.
Wolverines2
Take Myers and most of his contract and we won’t ask for much…
jackmarcus22
I wonder how much Reyes Moronta would cost, 26 years old and has some really nice numbers this year.
Oxford Karma
Relievers are so volatile except for the top 5-10%. You’re almost better off just grabbing rentals. The guys that become available this time of year probably won’t be good next year anyway.
jimmertee
Giles is elite.
There are only two vaild questions an acquiring club needs to ask itself about Giles, 1.) how is his health and 2.) Can he emotionally handle a playoff run? A good manager or pitching coach can drastically help with managing his emotions. The situation in Houston was oil and water mixing.
Giles should bring back one top 50 prospect plus some throw-ins.
its_happening
The biggest question is if Giles can handle the bright lights in October. I think he can be a great setup guy on a playoff team. He reminds me, a little, of Armando Benitez.
On a side note, I apologize for not treating you poorly like the inept Jays fans do on this site. Apparently by defending some of your points I have become hated. While the Blue Jays fans here hate any critical opinion of the team, I’m sure one of them has thrown something onto the field toward a player or umpire. That’s what we are known for by some….
Anyway, I’ll try to be more awful toward you in the future 🙂
jimmertee
Laughing outloud. I appreciate your lack of hate.
As you know sometimes [often] hardcore fans don’t like to hear the truth becuase it breaks the bubble of false hope around their club. Kinda like Simon Cowell telling some singer they have no shot. lol.
Here is a useless tidbit. Sources say that Kevin Pillar wants to come back to Toronto. Seriously. Means nothing but he is feeling it.
its_happening
I’d have him back as a 4th-5th OF and mentor. RH stick against lefties. By then he’d probably play more corners with the odd CF start. But why not? .778 OPS against lefties this year. A .755 career OPS against lefties. He could help Gurriel, Biggio, Alford and eventually help guys like Groshans at the big league level. Sounds good to me.
dsteig
I can’t believe they are sitting on their hands while their nice lead is cut in half . Been a Twins fan all my life. They do the same thing every year
someoldguy
Just wait til next year when the rotation consist of Berrios and Perez… Twins need starting pitching this year and next as it is the Key to winning most post season series and they have only 2 for next year: so to get wild and funky: lets trade Sano and some prospects ( Top 100 Prospects only succeed 25% of the time if you are lucky pitchers even less) to Arizona for Grienke and Escobar and we get 1/2 off greinke’ 3 years of cost… we ship out some prospects and have a leader in the rotation.. as well as a guy who has been very productive and a leader in the club house who is well liked.. Then we move someone to the pen, and go out and get a closer.. because next year we have no rotation.. so you better bet on THIS year.. time to go all in…
SalaryCapMyth
I’m really interested in the market at the deadline. A lot of teams have a lot of needs in the bullpen and the Braves have improved though admittedly much of it was with the Braves over utilizing Swarzak who is now injured and I think its blindly optimistic to think he would keep that kind of production going anyway.
There are also a lot of options too. Smith, Yates, Watson, Dyson, Greene, Colome, Giles and I know there are more I’m not remembering.
Giles is interesting to me because I think Smith and Yates are going to cost an insane premium this year despite all the alternatives there are. I do have concerns with Giles though. What happens to Giles if batters stop chasing pitches outside the strike zone?
groundhog5150
Yates will only go to the Twins if some combination of players from both teams include Kiriloff.
The Padres biggest organisational hole is a left-handed OF power bat.