Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…
Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332
- Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).
Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350
- Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.
Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343
- The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.
Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353
- There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337
- Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).
So, in conclusion, xwOBA is off by quite a bit on 2nd-Tier Level players.
It’s more that extremely slow runners like everyone above generally under-perform their xwOBA..
Angels have good outfield depth so if Calhoun could bring in a solid starter, we could let him go. I’d hate to see it, but we’re a solid starter away from getting to post season play.
maybe 3 solid starters…
Nah, only one. JC is about to return with Heaney, Canning, Pena, and Suarez all looking good. Barria is waiting in the wings at AAA and Harvey even had a reasonable start a few days ago. Pick up one solid starter and juggle the others and I think we’re there. The offense has been solid along with the BP. Our defense isn’t in question…solid at every position with the exception of Upton IMO.
calhoun for bauer. angels add a midlevel prospect and indians add $5 mil. deal.
That looks fair on paper.
No it doesn’t
I posted a couple of days ago that the angels would move a few pieces Calhoun and Simmons from the bullpen Garcia Bedrosian Cahill
Don’t worry were in last place last time I looked and were not a team who will be in any playoffs, none. Maybe 2020 if we get two good SP’s. Losing to the Marlins is like losing to the Gnats, we have too many guys high in K’s and low in OBP. AJ needs to read Money Ball by Billy Beane.
Calhoun has been so key for clubhouse chemistry in addition to excellent defense decent offense . i’d hate to see him go, especially for a declining starter, like that trade where we got a joker named Nolasco a few years ago.
This article is why some still have problems with saber stats. Look, we can all say we expect so and so to hit a particular slash line because they have the past history of doing so. We can also see when a player is hitting better or worse than we expected, based on that same history. I’m not a fan of the “luck factor” that gets talked about, because it’s subjective to situations. Just because a batter puts a ball in play and there is a defender there to make a play, no matter how spectacular said play might be, doesn’t mean he hit into bad luck. In today’s era of baseball, it feels as though for every very good defender, there is a very bad defender as well. So, in old school vernacular, it all evens out.
Or maybe it doesn’t.
But to say Player X is hitting at one slash line level, according to the traditional slash line, but then say “this” is what we expected him to do is not actually reality. If a player is hitting .267 for average then, despite what could be considered even to some extent official scorer error, he is still hitting .267. Bad luck or good luck, .267.
Just look at statcast. If a player hits a ball hard it’s typically a good sign of future performance hence the “underperforming” instead of the player’s past history I think you are mistakenly thinking is being used for these calculations (though some stats do use precedent, but not all)
Reminds me of the whole Chris Archer thing a couple years ago. Didn’t matter how bad he pitched people would anyways says “but his peripherals!!”
Woof
Castellanos not being on this list is laughable
I now see why, please ignore my comment
He is a FA at the end of the season and defensively he is rated D, Should stay in the AL for sure.
Why would the Padres sell on Fran? Oh and the Giants ain’t selling! Go get em!
He’s only good at slugging and part of that is because the juiced balls
he’s 6th in the NL and everyone is using the same balls, so juiced or not it doesnt matter.
He has 1 tool. Bad defense, no arm, little to no on base skills and doesn’t make good enough contact. Power is all he has.
Fran Reyes would be a good trading chip along with a prospect for a SP, must get a SP. Padres will not finish at .500 for the umpteen time.
If only I knew what xywzoba even meant. Geez, how many more stat terms are going to be thought up?
And get off my frikkin’ lawn.
The article includes a link to an explanation.
I really don’t get the fascination of Smoak as a legitimate trade candidate. He isn’t and really never has put up great numbers and I just really don’t see him doing all that much to help any contender. Yet day after day on top “trade candidates” of whatever Smoak always seems to headline the list… I just really don’t see it. Like seriously how valuable can a slow, 1B limted guy help any contender!?
Jays had to deal him a year ago. They didn’t. Much like Donaldson and Pillar two years ago and didn’t. It’s a Blue Jays thing.
You’re right; not sure if there is any team truly interested in Smoak. If they lose nothing in a deal, maybe. It’s a stretch to suggest Smoak would be a fit with a contending team.
Connor: you missed Wil Myers. That stud has to be moved to the AL. DH with speed…..
Talk about a flop, Wil the thrill is no longer, who would want him, just give him to any team eat half his salary and get him off the bench
Padres need to keep Reyes and Renfroe, hope Preller doesn’t overthink it and move them. If both guys were batting .285 instead of .250 they would have been All-Stars.
I guarantee you one will be gone, Renfore will be 30 yrs old and ARB eligible in 2020. Reyes is good but terrible defensively so I say trade either one plus one of our mediocre RP (we have many of those) and get a SP that can be a No. 2 in the rotation.