There haven’t been many better major leaguers than first baseman Paul Goldschmidt since he made his debut with the Diamondbacks in 2011. From Goldschmidt’s first big league at-bat through last season, he slashed .297/.398/.532 with 209 home runs in 4,708 plate appearances and showed off rare athleticism for his position, adding 124 stolen bases. During his first seven-plus years in the bigs, Goldschmidt tied for sixth in wRC+ (144) and ranked ninth in fWAR (36.2). Goldschmidt did a large portion of that damage on a sweetheart contract for Arizona, which signed him to a five-year, $32MM guarantee entering 2013. When the club made that commitment to Goldschmidt, he was about to begin his first of six straight All-Star seasons.
With Goldschmidt on the brink of a contract year in 2019, he understandably wasn’t going to take a discount this time. And the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to splurge on Goldschmidt, even though he’s a franchise icon, prior to his age-31 season. As a result, the Diamondbacks made the difficult decision to trade Goldschmidt to the Cardinals last December for three players – right-hander Luke Weaver, catcher Carson Kelly and infielder Andy Young – as well as a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. It looked like a solid haul at the time for one year of Goldschmidt, and indeed, Weaver and Kelly have impressed this year in the desert.
The Cardinals, who missed the playoffs in each of the previous three years, thought the Goldschmidt acquisition would inject new life into their lineup. The team was thrilled to reel in Goldschmidt, who finally got his enormous payday with a five-year, $130MM extension on the cusp of the season. So far, though, it hasn’t looked like a great allocation of funds. Goldschmidt has underwhelmed enough that he won’t be an All-Star this year, and the Redbirds have consistently taken one step forward and another back en route to a 41-41 record.
St. Louis’ offense ranks 21st in the majors in both runs and and wRC+. After adding one of the premier hitters of the past decade, the club expected much better. Goldschmidt hasn’t done a lot to help matters with his .246/.336/.405 line and 98 wRC+ through 352 plate appearances. While Goldschmidt has slugged 14 home runs, three came in the Cardinals’ second game of the season, when it looked like the start of an ideal match between him and the team.
On its surface, Goldschmidt’s middling production doesn’t mean this is the beginning of the end of an illustrious career. Just last year, he struggled through May before going on a three-month tear to restore his numbers. That said, it would be reasonable to sound some concern over Goldschmidt’s issues this year.
While Goldschmidt put up an expected weighted on-base average of .367 to .404 from 2015-18 – the first four seasons of the Statcast era – he’s down to .343 in that category this season. Granted, that’s definitely not awful – it ranks in the league’s 62nd percentile – though it’s not befitting of the superstar we’ve grown accustomed to watching. Moreover, a high batting average has always been a calling card for Goldschmidt, who’s a lifetime .294 hitter in part because he has registered a .351 BABIP in the majors. Goldschmidt’s BABIP this season has dropped to .302, which could be a sign of bad luck on its face, yet there’s almost no gap between his .246 average/.248 expected BA in 2019. He’s also walking less than he has since 2011, albeit at a still-solid 11.4 percent clip, while chasing more out-of-zone pitches than ever and making less in-zone contact than he has in any season but his rookie introduction.
Less contact on strikes has led to less power for Goldschmidt, who has limped to a .159 ISO thus far. That’s a 75-point drop in comparison to 2011-18 (.234) and a below-average mark relative to the league (.180). Going back to 2018, Goldschmidt showed power all over the strike zone, including on the inner and outer halves of the plate. This year, though, those pitches have largely thrown him for a loop.
When Goldschmidt has gotten on base this season, his long-established ability to steal has been nonexistent. Goldschmidt has swiped at least 15 bags in five seasons, though that number dipped to seven last year and has fallen to zero in 2019. He has only attempted to steal once, in fact, likely because his top speed has waned. Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has gradually come down in recent years and only ranks in the game’s 37th percentile, per Statcast.
Three months into Goldschmidt’s Cardinals career, it’s much too soon to say this type of production is his new normal. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Goldschmidt go on a vintage run in the coming months. Considering the Cardinals’ place in this year’s NL postseason chase, not to mention the $22MM per annum they owe Goldschmidt through 2024, they need a rebound from their franchise player sooner than later.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
This is nonsense. Every single year Goldie starts out slow, sometimes even pathetic and every single year he ends near a .300 avg. This should be known and shouldn’t be so overstated.
His career monthly splits don’t back up your assertion:
baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=golds…
Exactly. They do not. Gotta do better than that @Baytown
Or doubt could creep into St Louis’s front office and they end up wanting to move his contract.
Slash78 they won’t try to move his contract. If they were gonna try to move one it would of been Fowler. But both have full no trade clause
Who on earth would have any interest in trading for Fowler?
Goldy does not have 5 & 10 rights does he?
This is his first year with the Cardinals so no
I love when people hit the publish icon before they read what they typed. 5 & 10 rights for Goldy. That’s Gold Jerry. Gold!
Actually not true. There were significant warning signs last year.
What warning sign are you referring to last year? He had one bad month from what I could find.
Yeah he had a terrible may then hit .335 for the rest of the season lol
This is the knee-jerk reaction from fans all the time. I don’t understand why fans don’t simply look up the stats before they say things like this. As rct is showing, the stats are very available.
Today is game 83. I think the slow start excuse has come…and gone.
Wrong
You gotta switch up the title name style
Wish I could like this ten more times.
Honestly he could be injured or could be feeling pressures of new deal. Baseball players can have down years and bounce back. I wouldn’t base judgement on 3 months of ball. The only thing the cardinals should be Leary of is their past couple of seasons have been sup par. That organization doesn’t put up with that.
My question is what did the Cardinals stand to gain here vs. what they would stand to lose? They gave him a k. at $26M per year for five years. Say he had a typical Goldy year, how much more would he have gotten at age 32? Did they really save that much money be signing him before he hit the market? Cardinals have historically been run in an intelligent fashion, but I’m not sure I follow the logic.
The Cardinals have been going downhill since 2015. Massive busts on the free agent market, bad trades and unnecessary early extensions like Goldy and Mikolas
And Carpenter and Molina
Actually Molina first ballot hall of famer still mowing em down if they try to run and still one of the overall best catchers in the game. An all time great!
I see this from Cardinals fans all the time. Molina is not a first ballot HOF. Just look at his numbers.
If he’s a first ballot HOF, then that’s the biggest joke in the world. Base stealing has been on the decline for years. Molina is lazy behind the plate now. Hasn’t moved well in 3 years. He’s won half his gold gloves because catcher position is weak in the NL, and basically overall. If I voted, he wouldn’t get in. They have to stop watering down the HOF. Baines? Gimme a freaking break.
Fortunately, most knowledgable HOF voters know more than you and will vote Molina in although maybe no on the first go. He’s been and remains the best guy in MLB in a long while to handle pitchers and set up the infield since Bench who was a first ballot inductee so his BA and stolen bases don’t count nearly as much as his smarts and leadership.
That’s your opinion. Who was the catcher when the pitchers sucked for some of those years? Quit buying into that shiit. Pitchers still have control and must make the pitches. That narrative is overrated crap. Offense is still most important. If Ted Simmons isn’t in, then Molina shouldn’t be either. Because Simmons played in the Bench era, and if Molina’s defense gets him in, then why doesn’t Simmons’ offense?
Please tell me the last guy inducted in the HOF for his smarts and leadership. Was it Bill Freehan? Bob Boone? Thurman Munson? Chris Carpenter? Is Adam Wainwright getting in? Terry Pendleton? Wally Joyner? Kirk Gibson? Orel Hershiser? Shall I go on? I can name about 500 more with those qualities NOT in the HOF.
Godly and Mikolas are both great contracts
Too early to say that
$17M year for Mikolas was totally uncalled for after 1 year. 5 year contract at 26M for a 32 year old. No thanks.
when good players go to st. louis these days, they get surrounded by cardinal cancers.
All these people have run their course in STL. Until they are gone, this team will keep treading water. Mozeliak, Carpenter, Molina and Wainwright. Thanks for your efforts, but all good things must come to an end. Problem is, this should have come to an end 2 years ago and the re-boot should have started.
In St. Louis these 3 players, Carpenter, Wainwright & Molina run the team. What they say goes. Schildt & Mo are afraid to say anything to these guys.
Totally agree.
The Cards can hire The Genius-Joe Maddon when the Cubs either fire him after the All Star break or after the season when his contract expires.
Whats with all the negative articles today?
Called it. Shouldn’t expect the same numbers when you don’t have 90+ games in hitter friendly parks
Why do y’all link to BBRef but use Fangraphs WAR?
Why do you whine all the time? Even your user name is a complaint. Stfu
I think he would be a perfect hight-handed hitting player situated at 1b, playing at Oracle BP for the SFG. It’s a great LF hitting ballpark; they just need good right hand power hitters on this team. I would love to have Goldschmidt playing for the Giants. trade, Smith
Another expensive long-term contract for a player on the wrong side of 30? Sounds just like what the Giants need.
Seriously
No thanks
Belt’s putting up comparable numbers at 10 mil less
“they just need good right hand power hitters….” Um, no, the Giants have a lot more work to do than that
Last year Goldy constantly chased the away pitch. It wasn’t typical. He however is intelligent and will turn it around. Will he be vintage Goldy probably not but his contract looks a lot better than others like Harper.
He hit 340 after may lol
Well, it’s now July
this is baseball mixed with phonetics, my take.
Paul Goldschmidt was traded from “Phoenix” Arizona Diamond-Backs to “St. Louis Cardinals”.
What is a “Phoenix”? Phoenix in mythology; From Egyption Phoinos “Blood-Red Bird” “The mythical bird of Arabia which flew to Egypt every ‘500’ years to be reborn.
What do they call the Cardinals? “The Red Birds”
Paul GOLDschmidt’s name in relation to St.Louis
The “Louis” in Saint Louis – As the name of a French “GOLD” coin 17c.-18c.,(originally Louis XIII) pictured on the coins.
So we have “Louis the 13” and a “Red Bird” that rises every “500” years.
Paul Goldschmidt signs a 5 year, 130 million contract with the “Red Birds”.
Wut
Put down the bong
That’s some real tin-foil hat type stuff right there….
@ShieldF123 been consuming cannabis 10+ years
@empirejim hahah! yes, I am a conspiracy theorist
started watching the Doyyyers here in LA back during the Lo Duca, Green, Sheffield, Gagne era.
It’s shocking, simply shocking, that a player going into his age-31 season has declined precipitously from his previous production.
Carson Kelly .881 OPS through 60 games
Luke Weaver 3.03era through 11 GS
Andy Young progressing nicely through the minors (at AAA now)
I remember a lot of people thinking ARI’s return was light.
Goldy is far from done. A lot of players take a season to adjust to a new team. He’s still trending toward 30 HR but the doubles and triples are way down and he’s not getting on base as much. At 31 years old, smart money is that he’ll have more good years than bad for the Cardinals.
Goldy I’d still hitting well but it looks like he’s lost his speed. Hence the lack of double and triples. Hence the zero stolen bases.
He is 32 years old. There was a slight chance of a decline. Albeit a small decline. A good second half makes us forget about this.
Goldschmidt my not be hitting, but he is sure still being pitched to gingerly! Plus his defense is better that the Cards have had in years!! While you can’t expect him to hit like he did in his 20’s, he still is worth the money elsewhere!!!
He was horrid in the first half last season and look what happened lol
he’ll come arround. this is the same story as last year.
Let’s face in as long as J MO is running the team adding 1 piece here and 1 piece there a little of this a little if that always saying every year we like our team. I’m so sick of hearing that term from him. Cardinals have a lot of money and they won’t use it. They need some exciting players. Although Goldy has been a absolute stud his whole career they need more than him to compete in the central. Get rid of MO or tell him to quit sitting on the cardinals wallet
A lot of money? You realize they get small market money from MLB lol
How’s it possible they get small market money drawing 3.4 million fans a year at the $$ they charge for tickets and concessions. That’s nuts.
It’s market, not attendance. They sit in a pretty small market comparatively. They do a fantastic job drawing fans and such but they do not have the giant market a lot of other teams do. They do better with what they have than just about any other team.
Goldschmidt looks more than just frustrated. Something is off other than his hitting. It looks as if he’s playing through an injury he’s not telling anyone about.
he regrets signing the contract before hitting free agency
Hate to see a guy as classy as Goldschmidt hit rock bottom!!! However, ANY PLAYER, whether he is a Franchise player or not, shouldn’t be in the starting line up every day if he can’t hit, and refuses to change his batting technique to improve. Adding on the fact that Goldy is almost certain to Strike out over 200 times this season should he start as much as he did in the first half. This should be unacceptable for a starter on any team!!!