This has been anything but a productive season for the Blue Jays’ outfield, which ranks at the absolute bottom of the majors in fWAR (minus-1.0) and second last in wRC+ (75). Center fielder Randal Grichuk has fallen well short of expectations after signing a five-year, $52MM extension in early April, while neither corner outfielders Teoscar Hernandez nor Billy McKinney have come close to replicating above-average offensive showings from 2018. But Toronto’s outfield does have a saving grace in Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who – two-plus years after joining the franchise – is now delivering on the considerable hype he garnered as a prospect.
Gurriel signed with the Blue Jays out of Cuba in November 2016, ending a months-long derby in free agency which saw several teams court him. He ultimately accepted a seven-year, $22MM offer from the Blue Jays, who hardly broke the bank for his services. Had Gurriel failed in Toronto, it wouldn’t have done much damage to the team’s books. Had he succeeded, on the other hand, Toronto would have had a steal on its hands. It now looks like a case of the latter.
Gurriel debuted with the Blue Jays last year and showed off legitimate offensive promise, slashing .281/.309/.446 (103 wRC+) with 11 home runs in 263 plate appearances. He did amass 59 strikeouts against just nine walks, though, while drawing atrocious defensive grades in the middle infield. Gurriel totaled minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-7.0 Ultimate Zone Rating in almost 550 innings divided between shortstop and second base.
Despite his infield woes a year ago, Gurriel opened 2019 as Toronto’s top option at second base. It didn’t last long, though. The team optioned Gurriel to Triple-A Buffalo in mid-April, in part because he wasn’t doing much at the plate, but has reaped the rewards since then.
The Blue Jays had Gurriel work in the grass during his minor league demotion and now appear to have an outfield cornerstone in their midst. When the Blue Jays sent the 25-year-old down, he owned a meager .175/.250/.275 line in 29 at-bats. Two and a half months later, he has teed off on major league pitching to the tune of a .318/.366/.642 line with 14 home runs in 191 plate appearances. Among major league hitters who have accrued at least 190 trips to the plate, Gurriel’s 163 wRC+ ranks seventh. On the other side, both DRS and UZR have graded him as a scratch defender in left field since he returned from Buffalo.
To this point, the athletic Gurriel seems cut out for his new position, but how sustainable is his offensive outburst? Well, his 25.1 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate aren’t particularly promising, and he sports a .365 batting average on balls in play that won’t hold. He’s also making far less contact and swinging and missing more than he did a year ago. That said, encouraging signs abound. Gurriel may not be making as much contact as he did in 2018, but his hard-hit rate has risen almost 14 percent since then, according to FanGraphs. A drastic increase in fly ball rate, a four-degree rise in launch angle and a noticeable drop in grounders further help explain his power uptick.
Gurriel’s current weighted on-base average, .413, ranks in the top 4 percent of the majors, per Statcast. That’s probably not sustainable, though other indicators show Toronto has a real building block on its hands. The right-handed Gurriel ranks closer to the top of the league than the bottom in expected batting average (61st percentile), average exit velocity (65th percentile), expected wOBA (75th percentile), hard-hit percentage (87th percentage) and expected slugging percentage (93rd percentile). Gurriel’s .361 xwOBA sandwiches him between the likes of Charlie Blackmon and Francisco Lindor, among a slew of other familiar names. It helps that Gurriel hasn’t been vulnerable against lefty or right pitchers, whom he has crushed to varying degrees, or particular offerings. Gurriel has posted an xwOBA ranging between .356 and .477 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches, says Statcast.
Back when Toronto signed Gurriel, the hope for the team was that he’d evolve into an indispensable piece of its infield. It now looks as though he’s turning into an integral part of the Blue Jays’ outfield, which no doubt stands as a major victory – especially with young second baseman Cavan Biggio and shortstop prospect Bo Bichette in the mix. With Gurriel, Biggio, Bichette and budding third base star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in line to comprise almost half of Toronto’s attack for the long haul, an enviable offensive core looks to be taking shape up north.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
jbigz12
Connor is MLBTR’s mule for these types of articles. Seems like he pumps out 10 a week…..
bluebirds
What’s wrong with it, exactly?
jbigz12
I don’t have to have a complaint to have a comment. He’s been pumping out a ton of these
jjd002
I think he thought you were complaining about them since there were people complaining about these types of articles a few weeks ago.
neo
it’s not nice to call him an ass
aussiegiants53
Wait, there’s a worse outfield then what the Giants have trotted out this year?
casorgreener
He will come to earth soon. Probably end 2.0 WAR player annually
findingnimmo
Where does this come from?
groundhog5150
Padres vs Jays in 2022 WS???
I can dream can’t I.
its_happening
Jays will be fortunate to reach the playoffs by 2022.
charlesk
The Jays are three years away from being three years away. And that’s before Atkins trades Stroman, Sanchez, Giles, Smoak, Galvis & Sogard for the equivalence of a bag of balls.
bobtillman
Well, if you’re gonna have a “savior”, I guess Lourdes is a good name……
jimmertee
Gurriel jr has a shot at being elite.
Grichuk is Grichuk and there never was an expectation of him being more than he is. Unless of course he stops the dead pull swings and starts using the whole field regularly. Terrible center fielder.
Wherever they put biggie he’ll be very good on both sides of the ball.
Hernandez has great power, plus speed, a plus arm and terrible instincts and baseball sense. He seems half a sleep.
Please stop ordaining Bichette as he is a great player. MLB pitchers are going to own him and he’ll settle in as a zero war player.
Iron Mike
please stop pretending you can predict Bichettes future, as you have absolutely zero idea what hes going to be, let alone predict his exact WAR. No wonder you had such an esteemed career as an imaginary mlb/internet scout.
infractor
This is all Jimmy has, don’t take it from him.
jimmertee
Iron, just wait for it and remember that it was declared here first.
its_happening
Aside from the Bichette assertion I agree.
Bichette will have to make adjustments as majority of new MLB’ers often do. How or when will ultimately be answered in time. Bichette will get owned in the beginning. I do see him being willing to change. The concern should be his play at SS.
TennVol
If Alford could put it all together he could be an above average CF. With Gurriel in left, Alford in center and keep Biggio in right, you have a young, cheap, talented OF. Grichuk can be the 4th OF who will play a lot and can play all 3 OF positions. Move Guerrero to 1B, Bichette at SS, Sogard at 2B (until a prospect emerges) and someone at 3B (a plethora of IF candidate are moving through the system) and you have a young, homegrown inexpensive player position team. Go out and buy 2 great starters as FA, sign Stroman to a 4 yr deal as you 3rd starter, send Sanchez to the pen as closer or set up man, Thornton and Borucki as your 4th and 5th starters and you might have a very good team. Pearson will be up sometime next year, Pardinho the year after that, Zeuch, Foley and other ready in AAA as injury replacements or traded for another piece.
flippinbats79
Groshans is the 3B prospect you’re looking for. He’s done nothing but rake.
flippinbats79
Also agree on pitching. Their payroll is almost nothing moving forward. Go big on Cole and Bumgarner.
its_happening
– Alford can’t play CF
– Grichuk is being paid to start
– Bichette needs to seriously improve his D
– Groshans is 2-3 years away
– Need to deal Sogard at his peak (now)
– Must use Stroman to draw pitching talent in trade.
– Agreed on Vlad. And everything else.
kevnames42
What does being a scratch outfielder mean?
flippinbats79
Not negative or positively rated by defensive metrics but an average defender.
P N Protocol
I remember back when the Astros signed his brother Yuli, someone (McTaggert?) wrote that the signing gave Houston the inside track for Lourdes, the more talented of the brothers. I was happy for Toronto when they signed him, but I wanted him in Houston.
its_happening
More reason why the Grichuk extension wasn’t necessary. Now what’s to be done with Alford? Then again Alford hasn’t given the Jays much reason to be high on him, plus he can’t play CF very well. That is why he isn’t playing CF exclusively in AAA.
Gurriel has played well since the recall. That’s really it. Too soon to tell what he can be.
Bichette should be up. He won’t be until the Jays find someone to take Sogard, Smoak or Galvis.
jminn
Nice article Conner. Keep ’em coming.
ottomatic
also has a well above average arm in left due to being a former SS. it’s a legitimate weapon