With the Rockies’ fortunes sinking during a brutal stretch of play in the run-up to the trade deadline, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the organization “would listen to offers” for star outfielder Charlie Blackmon. It’s not clear at this point whether any such discussions have occurred.
At first glance, it seems rather unlikely that a deal will end up coming to fruition. The Rockies have positioned themselves as a win-now franchise in recent years by hammering out monster extensions with Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, inking a less-costly but still-significant deal with starter German Marquez, and drawing several free-agents (chiefly, Ian Desmond and a procession of relievers) with contracts that depreciated like new luxury cars rolling off the lot. The Colorado payroll sat at a record $145MM this season and already has hefty money on the books (before arb raises and other additions) for the next few years: $120MM+ for 2020, $82.8MM for 2021, and over $60MM for the ensuing two seasons. Dealing Blackmon would significantly harm the near-term outlook in the midst of a contention window that the team has already largely committed to.
Then again, perhaps there’s a shot here at a bit of a mulligan. The somewhat extended financial position is of obvious concern given the top-heavy state of the roster. Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl make up a nice group of position players to build around. Marquez and Jon Gray are a solid duo of young starters, with Scott Oberg and Carlos Estevez looking like quality, controllable relief arms this year. But that’s less than a third of the roster. Seven Rockies players have produced at least 1.0 fWAR this year (including Oberg but not Estevez); no other man on the roster has exceeded 0.5. Even as several of the free-agent acquisitions have gone south, the club has seen a few hiccups from promising young players trying to figure out the majors. And then there was the collapse of starter Kyle Freeland.
The picture has changed quite a bit since the Rockies acted decisively to keep Blackmon from testing free agency at the end of the 2018 season, and then did the same with Arenado after a Wild Card campaign. That’s true both of the team and of the veteran outfielder, who is owed $21MM this season as well as in 2020 and 2021. The deal includes a $21MM player option for the 2022 season and a floating-value player option for the final contemplated campaign. From a starting point of $10MM, that final option can move up to $18MM depending upon plate-appearance and MVP-voting results over the other seasons of the deal.
The Rox are in a bind through no fault of Blackmon, who has been the team’s best hitter. Through 381 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .319/.365/.602 batting line with 23 home runs. That translates to a strong 132 wRC+. Blackmon has been an excellent hitter for past four seasons and obviously has maintained his ability to square up the baseball. That said, he has outperformed the expectations of Statcast based upon his batted-ball data, with a .403 wOBA but only a .347 xwOBA, though that has also been true in each of the three prior campaigns. It’s also notable that Blackmon’s never-exceptional walk rate is down to 5.5%. That matter links up to another possible concern: Blackmon has posted yawning home/road splits this year. While the numbers are less dramatic over the full course of his career, no small part of Blackmon’s overall success has come from a whopping lifetime .378 BABIP at Coors Field.
While the hitting output and outlook remain mostly positive, the cracks are beginning to show in the other areas of Blackmon’s game. He was already moved out of center field after grading terribly there last year. The UZR and DRS grading systems remain pessimistic about his work in the corners in 2019, with Statcast’s outs-above-average and outfielder jump measures also taking a dim view of Blackmon’s glovework. Likewise, Blackmon is no longer a stolen-base threat or even a positive-value performer on the basepaths by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR grade. Statcast identifies a clear drop in his foot speed and percentile rank among MLB runners. These developments may not directly implicate his eye, bat speed, and reflexes at the plate, but they’re also of note from a hitting perspective because Blackmon is so heavily dependent upon reaching base via contact to maintain his on-base numbers.
So, should we add Blackmon to the top of the list of available trade deadline targets? There’s some reason to think the Rockies could make him available, though it’d be awfully tough to deal such a popular player and it would hardly solve the team’s payroll predicament in one fell swoop. Presumably, the club would want any acquiring team to take on most or all of the remaining money owed to Blackmon while also coughing up young talent. There’d surely be interest, but given the above-noted concerns, it’s also easy to imagine some trepidation from the market. Morosi speculatively considers the Rangers, Reds, and Cardinals as organizations that might conceivably target Blackmon, but it’s not hard to come up with reasons to believe each of those organizations would be hesitant to meet the Rockies’ presumptive asking price. Ditto other potential trade matches. The veteran outfielder also has 15-team no-trade protection, which could complicate matters. All things considered, it’s interesting to contemplate the possibilities but it still feels rather unlikely that Blackmon will end up on the move.
hiflew
They would stupid not to “listen to offers.” The Angels would be stupid to not “listen to offers” for Mike Trout. For that matter, every team in the league should “listen to offers” for every player on their roster. I don’t think any team is in the position to check the box marked “Do not offer trades from CPU” right now.
Matthew Heywood
Except trading mike trout would be stupid no matter what as he is a once in a lifetime player
hiflew
Even if you aren’t going to trade him, it’s silly to not even listen to offers. Just because you hear them doesn’t mean you have to accept them.
DarkSide830
no package of players any one team can muster would be worth trout.
JoeBrady
It would be difficult, but certainly not impossible. If TO offered Guerrero, Biggio & Bichette for Trout & Pujols, LAA would be stupid not to accept (politics aside).
Same if SD offered Tatis, Gore & Renfroe.
damascusj
As much as I love trout, if SD gave up Gore and tatis, I’d stop watching Padres baseball forever
jbigz12
I would not take Bichette, Vlad and Biggio for Trout. Forget Pujols’ money. I’m not taking that deal.
TBRaysBucsBolts
Do you want to watch Mike Trout play baseball or do you want the Angels to win baseball games? EVERYONE can be traded for the right haul. If the Nationals traded Scherzer (and ate most of his contract) and traded you Juan Soto, would you trade Trout then ? I would in a heartbeat.
jbigz12
Are the Angels a Scherzer and a Soto away from the postseason after you subtract Trout? No, I would not take that. Hopefully Jo Adell is another all star to combine w Trout and a healthy Ohtani. They’ll probably need to break the bank for a TOR starter and then you might have something there.
JoeBrady
I would not take Bichette, Vlad and Biggio for Trout. Forget Pujols’ money. I’m not taking that deal.
————————————————————–
You can’t forget Pujol’s money. If both of them were included in a deal, and the Trout/Pujols money (~$67M) is used to buy FAs, then deal is effectively:
Trout (11 WAR?)
for
Mookie Betts, Gerrit Cole, Guerrero, Bichette & Biggio (24 WAR?)
jbigz12
You can’t get 10 WAR from any one position in the major leagues. Vlad is a question mark who might end up at DH. Biggio might be an average regular and Bichette is to be determined.
Eating Pujols’ money might be nice but 67 million over 2 years isn’t the 250+ Cole and Betts are going to ask for. Trout’s money is spread over 12 years anyhow. And I’m fairly confident Mookie won’t ink for a penny under 250, likely more.
There’s no replacing Trout. If this were Acuna for Trout and Pujols it might be a different story. Because then you’d actually be acquiring a legitimate cost controlled MVP candidate. But Vlad Jr. is nothing yet and the prospects of having to outbid 5-6 other teams for Cole and Betts sure as hell isn’t worth it.
hiflew
Yeah, but that 10 WAR is not getting you into the playoffs. If you trade him for several players which can improve other positions, you probably will end up as a better team. Instead of having a one man team that ends its season in September every year.
johnrealtime
There is a difference between listening to offers and letting it be known that you are willing to listen to offers on a player. The latter is like advertising and shows more of a willingness to deal
sloopjonb
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen such a huge home/road split difference.
Whiskey and leather balls
was just looking at that, good luck to them trying to sell that stat
BalcoBomber
Was the same with CarGo. MVP numbers at home. Average everywhere else.
hiflew
Rockies road stats are so much worse because they are the only players that don’t get to add their inflated Coors stats into their road averages. For the rest of the NL West teams, Coors Field stats make up over 10% of their road averages every year. Think about that the next time you see a Dodger player’s great H/R splits. Splits are useless because “road” is different for every player. It is not a constant throughout the league, so it is just as varying as home stats.
DJ LeMahieu and Matt Holliday had horrible splits as well and they did fine. So did Andres Galarraga and Ellis Burks. CarGo was already done by the time he left. Same with Larry Walker and Dante Bichette, although their stats were still fairly similar in the couple of years after they left Coors.
pt57
The west ballparks are tough on hitters, how much does that explain the splits?
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Did Morosi forget about the Cubs? Seems like their type of move.
chicagofan1978
tHey DoNt hAvE ThE pRoSpEcts
Bocephus
They could mix a player on the active roster with prospects to get it done.
chicagofan1978
Almora, Amaya, and someone else?
augold5
I think the Rockies would take Almora, Amaya and Happ.
pt57
They’d be stupid to do that.
MLBTR Commenter
Why would the Cubs take on that contract?
dewssox79
none of those cubs players have value.
chicagofan1978
Incorrect
ASapsFables
The Cubs can’t hit left-handed pitching as it is. Trading for Charlie Blackmon would give them an all-lefty hitting outfield of Kyle Schwarber, Blackmon and Jason Heyward along with Anthony Rizzo at 1B. The are also not in a position to take on his remaining salary which is excessive for a 33-year old who has poor splits and is a defensive liability.
its_happening
Blackmon for Myers. Straight up. Double check the splits.
LosPobres1904
Yes!
Bocephus
Teheran and Myers are the most suggested trade names in these articles.
RunDMC
Not anymore for Teheran. He’s having his best year since 2016 and is on-pace for his 2nd best year (by WAR standards, fwiw). He’s got a decent option, but also is getting $11MM this year, which for someone who will always be underappreciated because he outperforms FiP – ATL would have to take pennies on the dollar to shed his contract — and for a playoff team with young arms going into the stretch run — his quality IPs are invaluable to a rotation that has had very little-to-nothing in the rotation from 3 SPs from last year’s rotation: Folty, Gausman, Newcomb (serving as a competent setup man). Anyone suggesting Teheran as a trade piece either just woke up from a year-long coma or only watch’s Braves games by hunting the box scores.
its_happening
Not sure why Teheran was hated on so much a year ago. Actually, I do know why but I didn’t agree with it.
As a Jays fan I hope they deal with the Braves, and I said in another Braves/Jays thread I’d be willing to take Gausman back in a Stroman/Giles deal to secure the pitching prospects. It’s a win-win for both teams as the Jays need a 1-year stopgap (Gausman) and it gives some payroll flexibility for the Braves for next year.
damascusj
Myers does hit great at Coors, and yeah, their splits are almost identical
Irishblade
I was there when he hit for the cycle!! Lol
mike156
I think you worry about another Goldschmidt or even Joey Votto outcome: older, once very talented player’s wear and tear puts them on a gentle slope downwards, until, bang, a sharp decline. Then you are stuck. Where Blackmon is on that arc…
Vogt83
Arenado can’t be happy about this.
johnrealtime
He’s there for the long haul, if he’s smart then he would support a forward thinking move like this. Charlie is 33, he already lost his base stealing ability, if his power starts to go then you have a very large part of your limited budget going to an average player at best. If they can get something decent for him, I think they have to strongly consider that
YankeesBleacherCreature
I think they would probably be happy to let him go through waivers. He’s still a useful player *now* but I’d be wary of any team outright claiming him with his contract… except for maybe the Mets.
Christopher Guzman
This is a move that can make sense for Philly. Bruce is hurt, McCutchen is hurt. Adding him to LF would allow for Haseley to go to CF and Kingery to replace either Franco at 3B or Hernandez at 2B. Bruce can be the bench guy he was meant to be and next season you can have Blackmon, McCutchen and Harper in the OF with a combo of Haseley, Bruce and/or Quinn.
RunDMC
Stupid money they have – where are they getting the prospects? Moniak hype machine on full blast?
koldjerky
They still have a decent amount of talented prospects. They’re about middle of the pack in the league. Moniak isn’t even in their top 10 anymore lol
RunDMC
It’s really the quality and not the quantity I’m referring to in PHI – outside Bohm/Spencer Howard – they have little else. Moniak is just a lightning rod of sarcasm. Anytime a #1 overall pick misses (he still has time…) – God laughs. Balance is restored in the universe.
Even if they do trade from their farm – it would potentially decimate the system for a guy with huge splits, a big contract (they could handle) and is aging. Not exactly someone you want to build around. But hey, from a Braves fan – go for it.
JoeBrady
How many prospects are required for a guy like Blackmon? A minimum of $64M for the next 3 years, with a .657 road OPS? 33 year’s old and a 2.1 WAR over 2018-19.
Christopher Guzman
Maybe Medina and a Jhalin Ortiz but with age and contract that may be too much. Maybe see if they’ll take Velasquez or Pivetta?
RunDMC
Yes, I’m sure the high elevation should improve Velasquez/Pivetta’s HR issues. Maybe PHI throws in a bigger, better humidor?
hiflew
WAR is useless for judging Rockies outfielders. That outfield is so vast that dWAR cannot account for it. No Rockies OF in the history of the franchise has had a positive dWAR for an entire season. And that includes Larry Walker, one of the best defensive RFs of his generation.
steelerbravenation
Goldy will come back and produce 1 bad year is not the end all be all for a guy.
And Blackmon trade would be an offseason move
Not a deadline move
Bocephus
If the Rockies feel the return is enough they’ll move him at the deadline.
ac106
Almost without fail, teams want to move these contracts before the ink is dry. Why do they keep signing players for this kind of money when the regret rate is close to 100%!?!?. JUST LET THEM WALK! Your fans will get over it! Life will continue! The earth will not open up and consume your stadium!
beyou02215
100% agree. I thought this was a bad extension the minute I heard about it. Still $74 million to go and tying up an OF spot for 5 years.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Because the signing team has championship aspirations. When you do win one (or two), the increased revenue mitigates the bad money for the once-good, aged players.
Backup Catcher to the Backup Catcher
Rox should listen to offers for everyone except Arenado. And forget about prospects in A or AA. Find some starting pitchers with a track record who can give this team a chance to win. Rox hitters are viewed as suspect. Most, like Blackmon, have awful splits. Just look what happened to Tulo and Cargo after Coors. Cargo’s been cut by the Indians and the Cubs and Tulo, even when he was healthy in Toronto was just a shell of himself.
exile
Cargo was already on the decline when he left the Rockies. That’s why they didn’t bring him back for 2019. Tulo had a 3.4 WAR season for Toronto in 2016. Injuries killed Tulo’s career.
Look at some recent guys who have had success after leaving Colorado such as LeMahieu, Tauchman, and Tom Murphy.
jorge78
A 33 year old slugger who is starting “to show cracks” with an albatross contract. Sounds like someone Jon Daniels will salivate over! Sigh…..
haubrick4
The Cardinals need to trade for him, and then they need to release Fowler.
jkcchc3
33 yr old outfielder on the decline. He also is owed a lot of money. I don’t see teams chomping at the bit to send top prospects their way.
hiflew
On the decline? He was NL player of the month just one month ago.
CrewBrew
Everyone should take a look at his home/road splits. Hes a solid hitter but alot of his numbers are coors field impacted.
Christopher Guzman
Send him to a hitter’s park like Texas, Philly or Cincy and see how he does.
CrewBrew
send him to a hitters park? lol bruh hes been in the best hitters park there is
Christopher Guzman
I’m saying if he is traded send him to a hitters park and maybe a decline would be slower. Should have been clearer.
damascusj
I thought you were clear enough
hiflew
Yeah a player with significant H/R splits obviously is horrible. You know, like Christian Yelich.
DocBB
A .609 OPS away, a terrible defender, on the wrong side of 30 and owed $95+M over 5 years. Of course they will listen to offers….let’s hope GM’s aren’t dumb enough to bite though.
CrewBrew
solid hitter than any team should be interested in, but not for that money. Take away coors field and he would never make an all-star team. would still be a nice piece to a lineup though.
mercurymets
Agree, he is like many Rockies before. Better question is who are the Rockies who performed great AFTER leaving the team? I got Galaragga, Juan Pierre and kinda Larry Walker for the Cardinals. Am I missing anyone?
CrewBrew
I think Arenado/Story are legit no matter what park. Havent dove into the numbers though.
BobbyJohn
Matt Holliday
His OPS+ was actually higher in STL than in COL.
Android Dawesome
DJ Lemahieu has started off pretty well.
exile
Corey Dickerson, Dexter Fowler, Mike Tauchman, Tom Murphy, and of course DJ LeMahieu.
hiflew
DJ LeMahieu. Matt Holliday. Ellis Burks. Dante Bichette even played as well in Boston and Cincy as his last couple of Coors years. The whole trope is just wrong.
Most of the players that everyone brings up (Atkins, Hawpe, CarGo) were already on the decline BEFORE they left Coors
DocBB
He’s likely an ..800 OPS guy away from Coors which isn’t bad. But when you take into account his age salary and defense those all really negate his positives.
24TheKid
He’s likely not an .800 OPS guy away from Coors field because the facts show that he’s a .609 OPS guy.
hiflew
That’s not a fact, that is a skewed percentage. Let’s say he is traded to the Giants. Then his Coors Field stats become his road average and that .609 goes WAY up. Albeit in fewer games. But 9 road games in Coors will still greatly impact a number that only includes a maximum of 81 games. His .609 right now includes zero games played at Coors unlike every other non-Rockies player in the game.
BobbyJohn
This could be one of those rare buy/sell moves. If they could get a decent SP in return it would be dealing from a position of strength to shore up a weakness.
beyou02215
They should call Brodie.
CrewBrew
Nah hes not off a PED suspension, 35, and injury prone. not Brodies type
TNE
Can they DFA their manager?
msqboxer
The window for great return on Blackmon closed after 2017.
Rich Hill’s Elbow
Does this mean Arenado could be available soon?
joedirte4life
There’s not many position players available in the market and yea Blackmon is on the decline and he 33 he still has put up pretry good numbers and made 3 allstar games in a row. With the Dodgers ahead of them for the next few years it may be smart to retool and get younger and build a solid core around Arenado and Story. Blackmon would probably fetch multiple top 100 prospects. Besides its better to sell on a player too early than too late.
terriem0610
NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
BobbyJohn
I really love Charlie, but I would move him for a reliable SP in a heartbeat.
They also need to move his contract to free up money to extend Story.
I would think an AL club could see him as a RF for the next couple of seasons with a transition to DH.
dodger1968
Pederson, Verdugo, Will Smith, 2 low A pitchers, Hill for Trout and lefty reliever
24TheKid
If your major league team isn’t taking any hits in a trade for Trout then it’s not even close to a realistic proposal.
Harry Scout
Some kind of deal involving Bauer and Blackmon?
Steve G
I’d like to see Blackmon traded to the Yankees just to see him clean shaven with a haircut. LOL.
YankeesBleacherCreature
I’d take him if the Rockies included all his remaining money owed and send back his beard clippings as the PTBNL.
hiflew
Yankees are on his 15 team no trade list. As are the Marlins. He only shaves when HE decides to.
Shrutefarm
It is so difficult to get a read on Rockies players. Their benefit for hitting there (ball travels further, breaking pitches don’t break as much) can also be their detriment on the road because they don’t see enough quality breaking pitches at home. That is a beautiful park, but I just don’t think it is good for MLB.