Seattle and Arizona may or may not have almost come together on a trade for Mariners right-hander Mike Leake in early June. Nearly two months later, Leake remains a Mariner, but he and the team “are ready to be done with” each other, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports in a piece examining the M’s potential trade chips leading up to the July 31 deadline. Unfortunately for the Mariners and Leake, interest in the starter been “minimal” since the club discussed him with Arizona, according to Divish.
As a soon-to-be 32-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and probably won’t during the next season or two, Leake is an obvious trade candidate. Leake does have a full no-trade clause, though, which makes his apparent eagerness to leave the Mariners all the more noteworthy. That said, a willingness to waive your no-trade protection obviously doesn’t matter if teams aren’t interested in your services.
For the most part, Leake has been a steady, durable rotation piece since his career began with the Reds in 2010. Also an ex-Giant and Cardinal, Leake came into the year with a 3.99 ERA/4.11 FIP, 6.07 K/9, 2.06 BB/9 and a 50.8 percent walk rate over 264 starts and 1,627 1/3 innings. But Leake hasn’t done anything to boost his trade stock through 115 1/3 frames this year, even though he has bettered his typical strikeout/walk numbers with 6.63 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9.
Walks have been hard to come by against Leake, whereas batters haven’t had much trouble collecting hits or home runs off him. Just two starters have coughed up more hits than Leake (133), whose HR/9 (1.87) also sits third from the bottom and ranks as a career worst. The .349 weighted on-base average and .346 xwOBA he has allowed are also nearer to the low end of the totem pole than the top. With those facts in mind, it’s unsurprising Leake’s 4.60 ERA and 4.99 FIP are among the highest of his career.
The 2019 version of Leake has been a back-of-the-rotation innings eater, which does carry some value. However, the fact that Leake’s still on the five-year, $80MM deal he signed with the Cardinals prior to the 2016 campaign complicates matters. He came into 2019 with two guaranteed years and $36MM left on the pact, and though the Cards are chipping in $5MM this season and $4MM in ’20, it’s still too rich for other teams. The Mariners are willing to eat a significant amount of the money they’re paying Leake in order to move him, per Divish, but that hasn’t helped them find a taker yet.
I’m all for the Astros trading for a guy who can get through 5 innings consistently. Don’t even care about the ERs he would allow, just get through 5 IP through the end of the year.. Seattle needs to eat 90% of what’s remaining and you can have a middling prospect in return…. plus Tyler White.
Yankees. You heard it here first.
So, how does the Leake for the Padres Myers trade work? Who sends an extra what?
Whatever the difference in their two salaries is San Diego sends over to Seattle minus 5 million so San Diego can feel like they saved something.
But seriously, Myers has severely negative value on his deal. An innings eater like Leake is probably more valuable to them during a rebuilding period.
Leake has been bad, and is a lot worse of than Myers. Myers is younger, had glimpses of All-Star talent, unlike mediocre Mike.
A 1st baseman or possibly left fielder who is putting up a 90 OPS+ and is owed 60 MM over the next 3 years. Leake has far more value.
Give me the backend of the rotation arm who gives me 185 innings every year. I can go find a Wil Myers type for little to nothing. Myers is nearly 29 now too so the “youthful upside” is dwindling fast.
Agreed. If Meyers were a free agent this offseason he would be playing in triple a on a minor league contract right now
Yeah I mean Wil Myers would probably be looking at a 1 year make good deal if he were a FA. He really doesn’t have a defensive position and he’s certainly not hitting enough to justify playing at DH or even 1B. By no means is Leake special but he’s cheaper and he eats innings. Quite honestly I think any rebuilding team in baseball can use a guy like Mike Leake to eat innings.
I can just imagine how much he or a guy like James Shields could’ve helped the Orioles bullpen this year.
I couldn’t imagine paying 36 million for Leake and his rotten attitude. At least Myers has done everything the Padres have asked, move positions, etc.
Why was Leake unwilling to move to RF is something?
Like Adam Duvall
In 10 seasons Mike Leake has posted 17.9 fWAR, including 6.1 fWAR since the start of the 2017 season and 0.8 fWAR this year.
In seven seasons Wil Myers has posted 9.1 fWAR, including 2.6 fWAR since the start of the 2017 season and 0.1 fWAR this year.
With bullpens imploding from overwork, an innings-eater such as Leake might be undervalued.
Myers carries a negative surplus value of $23.8 million. Leaks has a positive surplus value of $3.7 million. So the Padres would have to add some prospects and/or cash adding up to $20 million in surplus value
If I’m the Mariners, give me Myers for Leake everyday and Sunday too! M’s need offense, SD needs an innings eater to build up to the kids coming through the farm to pitch the remainder of this year and next. Win-win for both sides. Leake gets out of Seattle where he obviously hates it, Myers gets into a more hitter friendly park and can DH to hide his poor defense. Get it done!
When you have zero shot at the playoffs and trying to move salary, you don’t add an albatross contract that isn’t an improvement over any of the outfielders or first baseman already on the roster…plus at least Leake eats innings and saves potential youngsters who would be brought up from pitching too many innings
freak – you’re working with ~5 year old info on the Mariners. The only kind of player where they have any surplus these days are defensive liabilities that can hit.
This year’s Seattle Mariners have an OPS+ of 104 and an ERA+ of 83. Wil Myers’ OPS+ of 90 would not help.
Why would Seattle want to add salary, when the entire point of moving Leake is to save at least a little money?
The Mariners don’t need outfielders, either. They’ll want to give Fraley and Bishop PA’s before too long. If anything, Seattle should be moving outfielders.
Someone though Leake was worth 5/80, get that man a raise…or a different job.
Welcome to St. Louis. My name is John Mozeliak. I’ll be worth you shortly.
Mike Leake has posted 8.5 fWAR, valued at $67.9 million, in the first three-and-half years of his five-year, $80 million contract:
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10130&posi…
In January 2017 the San Diego Padres gave Wil Myers a six-year, $83 million extension even though Myers was three years away from free agency.
Mike Leake’s five-year, $80 million free agent contract is a bargain in comparison.
Depends on the team and their ballpark. Could be a decent pickup. Innings guy. Gotta have a good defense behind him because he doesn’t walk guys and allows lots of balls in play.
White Sox should be on him. He can take a little pressure off the young kids with his innings at the back end of the rotation.
I would say the Braves for the same reason but we already got Julio Teheran to do that.
I think the White Sox should avoid trading for older, expensive, innings eaters.
Don’t say that to a team that might want him. We need to get rid of him. It probably doesn’t matter I doubt many GMs are on this board getting trade help from the Yahoo’s on here. Lol
Nah, I’m pretty sure GMs are at all times either here or checking out MLB Pipeline cause they’re too cheap. But yes, the M’s desperately need to get rid of Leake and Gordon and both are doing well tonight.
50.8% walk rate? And somehow that means walks are hard to come by? He must’ve meant a 50.8% ground ball rate. Any pitcher that walks 50.8% of batters they face doesn’t even belong on a high school team much less a major league team. What did this guy do to deserve a full no trade clause on top of $80 million? Full no trades are relatively hard to come by if your not a superstar like Trout or Harper. Even Grienke didn’t get a FULL no trade.
It was most definitely a typo as Leake has an exceptionally low BB-rate (this was mentioned in the article with other evidence).
In addition, methinks you’re not too aware of the frequency NTCs are actually handed out in MLB. They are definitely *NOT* reserved for superstars. They are, in fact, fairly common in some organizations as a means of cutting down the true $ value of the contract. Not handed-out-like-candy-common, mind you, but common in situations where a player is vocal in contract negotiations about either wanting to stay in the city and/ or wanting to play for their select choices of places.
Mike’s not the one to help plug a leaky rotation
He looked alright tonight.
Leake’s entire remaining salary, plus Tommy John rehabber Sam Carlson, to the White Sox in exchange for three depth pieces from the minor league system.
My God…that would be an awful decision by the Mariners.
I must admit that I am curious as to what devalues Leake around the league, that he is as much of a known as can be boosts it, I’d think. That he has actually also outperformed his $/WAR valuation every single year should boost it, as well. And so should the fact that even if Seattle doesn’t chip in anything, the acquiring team would only be on tap for $27MM the next two years — chump change for a 2-ish Win pitcher.
Is it his full NTC that devalues him so much? Or are there not-in-the-media-but-known-“around baseball”-issues abound? Or is it just that Dipoto sees value in keeping a reliable #4-type SP on a pitching staff where a #4 SP is his second-most valuable pitcher and isn’t under pressure to simply clear the roster space (as was almost certainly a contribution in the Bruce and Encarnacion trades)?