It wouldn’t have been far-fetched at the beginning of the season to expect any of the Brewers, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies or Mets to end up as part of this year’s National League playoff field. Three of those clubs – Milwaukee, Chicago and Colorado – earned postseason trips a year ago and continued to boast capable rosters coming into 2019. St. Louis won 88 games in 2018 and then made a couple aggressive offseason moves in an effort to get over the hump. Philadelphia and New York were sub-.500 teams last season, though the NL East rivals were among the majors’ busiest franchises over the winter.
With the regular season having reached its brief summer recess, it’s fair to say all of the above clubs have disappointed to varying degrees so far. The Cubs (47-43) and Brewers (47-44) do hold playoff spots at the moment, while the Redbirds (44-44) are just two back of those teams in the NL Central. However, they’ve each contributed to the general mediocrity of their division.
Cubs president Theo Epstein just voiced disgust over his team’s weeks-long slump. Their closest competitors, the Brewers, have gotten another otherworldly season from reigning NL MVP outfielder Christian Yelich. A thumb injury has helped lead to sizable steps back for 2018 outfield complement Lorenzo Cain, though, while first baseman Jesus Aguilar has a mere eight home runs after slugging 35 a season ago. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s pitching staff – like the Cubs’ and the Cardinals’ – has underwhelmed throughout the season. The Cards’ offense has also sputtered, in part because headlining offseason pickup and longtime superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t resembled the player he was as a Diamondback.
The Rockies (44-45) reached the playoffs last year thanks largely to their starting pitching – something which has seldom been true about the team in its history. This season, though, reigning NL Cy Young candidate Kyle Freeland’s output has been so dreadful that he has spent the past month-plus trying to regain form in the minors. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, nobody else in the Rockies’ starting staff has stepped up to grab a stranglehold of a spot.
Shifting to the NL East, the Phillies are in wild-card position at 47-43, but a .522 winning percentage and a plus-2 run differential may not have been what they had in mind after an action-packed offseason. A record-setting contract for Bryce Harper was the Phillies’ largest strike, but they also grabbed J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and David Robertson in other noteworthy transactions. However, at least offensively, Harper, Realmuto and Segura haven’t matched their 2018 production. McCutchen was enjoying another quality season before suffering a season-ending torn ACL a month ago, meanwhile, and Robertson got off to a terrible start in the year’s first couple weeks. The long-effective reliever has been on the injured list since mid-April with a flexor strain. Even with a healthy McCutchen and Robertson, the Phillies would still be riddled with problems in their pitching staff – including the rapidly declining Jake Arrieta, whose season may be in jeopardy because of a bone spur in his elbow.
The Mets are rife with concerns on and off the field, with recent behind-the-scenes drama involving GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway the source of the franchise’s latest unwanted attention. Van Wagenen’s audacious offseason signings and trades were supposed to help the Mets snap a two-year playoff drought this season. Instead, the team’s an abysmal 40-50 through 90 games and on track to sell at the July 31 trade deadline. Trading for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz hasn’t worked out at all, while splashy free-agent additions Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie (injured all season and possibly out for the year), Wilson Ramos (a potential trade candidate just a few months into a two-year contract) and Justin Wilson have also failed to meet expectations.
In a league where only the Dodgers and Braves have truly stood out so far, all of these clubs still have at least some chance to earn playoff spots this season. They’re each no worse than seven back of postseason position at the All-Star break. Considering your preseason expectations, though, who’s the biggest disappointment to date?
(Poll link for app users)
The NL Central and East were both supposed to be Uber competitive. The central I think is just that with even the last place team within 4 games of first place? While they have underperformed in some aspects it’s still living up to the competitive projection. The NL East however in my opinion has been the most disappointing. I haven’t seen anything like it where everyone stacks up so much in the offseason just to waste away during the season.
Agree with your take on the NL East.
As a Yankees fan that roots for the Mets 158 games a year, if you told me Alonso would have 30 HR’s, 20+ doubles with an OBP of .370+, McNeill would be hitting .350 with and OBP OF .410, and Davis/Smith would combine for 17 HR’s and an OBP of .365 in about 375 PA’s at the all-star break, I would have expected my over to be a gimme.
Even though the Phillies only had a 76-86 Pythagorean W/L record, they added Harper, McCutchen and Realmuto (never a fan of Segura, but he could be mentioned as well). I thought they would be more competitive.
Nationals didn’t make many moves besides Corbin and Barraclaugh (what hapenned to him?) but I expected more from Soto and Robles (perhaps unfairly). Still hoping they can make a run at the division as unlikely as that may be. I got them at +365 to win the division. Should have probably thought that through a bit more.
Expected more from Soto? He’s batting 300 with 15 home runs and 56 rbi’s and 943 OPS.
You’re absolutely right, he’s doing as expected. I thought he hit more HR’s last year. For some reason I had the number 37 in my head, could be the rose. His OBP is exactly as it was last year (.406) and HR’s are on pace.
Better RBI pace and average as well, but I don’t apply much meaning to RBI’s, and average is mostly meaningless in a vacuum.
Either way, he’s having a great year. Thanks for the info.
He was hurt and on the il for a few weeks that is why his homers are lower
The Nats also added Suzuki, Adam’s and Dozier that are making good contributions (and many other moves)
Dozier making contributions? Ha that’s funny
He does have 14 HR and 33 RBI, so he has contributed some.
I completely agree. Tracing back to their pythag from last year and adding probable contributions to who they brought in, I didn’t see them doing more than 86 wins. Unless Bryce reverted back to his 10 WAR National year. Still, even to that they’re 4 games under that trend line. Interesting to see what they do going forward. I don’t get the feeling Rhys will hold up past his arbitration years with his current production. He isn’t a great hitter. Hernandez and Segura will be 30 next year. Bryce hasn’t been able to turn it around. And all the bats they took top 10 in their down years (Haseley, Moniak, Randolph) have lost value. Maybe there’s hope with Bohm? But hey, Kingery looks like a steal! Given the high picks and the payroll flexibility this team should be much better than 82-86 wins. They should fire Matt Klentak.
Uber? You think they will be driving?
Phillies, they are the 2018 Nationals
Never thought the Phils would be that good (was surprised by last year) and same too with the Mets.
Agreed. It seems like every time a new GM tries to trade his way into the playoffs like Brodie did with the Mets it fails for lack of chemistry. They seem to fail to realize that if a team is willing to trade a star player they probably have warts.
2019 Phillies = 2018-2019 Lakers
The Padres deserve a mention, after spending so much in recent offseasons especially Machado and Hosmer. Thought, for a certainty they would upgrade the rotation and at least be way over .500 (in wildcard contention).
I completely disagree. I think anyone who thought the padres were serious contenders with a rotation of Matt Strahm, Joey Lucchesi, Logan Allen, Eric Lauer, and Nick Margevicius was going anywhere in 2019 was not living in reality. This is about as good as I saw them being giving their ML pitching situation. The future looks about as bright as ever. They’ll just need to develop more starters. And they have the talent down there so I’m confident in that.
Hence my second sentence…about upgrading the rotation.
Machado was never going to instantly put them into contention. Depending what they do this next offseason, maybe they get into the conversation of biggest disappointments. But they’re nowhere near the level of the Mets in that category.
They’re two games out of the wild card. Why does everyone think the Padres are out of contention? Idiots.
Because their pitching says no depth no long compete down stretch. Plus Hosmer has the suck which makes them have losses. A lot! LOL!
Machado and Hosmer are intended to form the veteran base for the talent coming up from the farm. Nobody seriously expected that talent to be ready by now and the Padres to contend this year. With the qualify of their farm they could be a force next year or the year after.
Machado, Hosmer, and Harper contracts kill negotiating power of the stars. All have big disappoint and taking team for wrong directions. Killing rebuild processes with a too much commitment.
I had hope for very very very big National season. Hoping for them best. They are current for my biggest disappoint.
They did get consideration; it’s called ‘other’. I mean, yeah, they added Machado, but they were 30 games under .500 last season, 25 1/2 games back, and 7 games behind the Giants. Anyone that expected anything more than incremental improvement are thinking with their hearts. They are better this year, and to call them a disappointment is, not only a disservice to the Padres, but also missing the big picture.
The Mets didn’t look this bad on paper. I guess I expected more out of Matz, Thor, Wheeler, and Degrom. I thought Cano might have one more decent year in him as well. But I guess that was all wishful thinking. Team is a nightmare.
Agreed, they are a nightmare. Would be a different story without the Diaz/Cano trade.
McNeill replaces Cano at second, Bruce and his 24 HR’s (I know his OBP is terrible) replaces McNeill in the OF and at this point Swarzak and his 2.61/1.16 is their closer. And you still have the three kids in minors.
Swarzak and his $8.5m off the books this year, Bruce and his $14m after 2020. Instead the Mets owe Cano $81m after this year.
Given what the Mets gave up I voted for them. All their moves were made to win this year so being this far out is a huge disaster in my opinion.
Thanks for making us not look like the worst organization in baseball anymore, Mets.
-Signed: every Seattle fan
First we complain that not enough teams compete. Now that basically all of the National Leahlgue has a chance at a wild card (minus 2-3 teams), people are complaining about “mediocrity”. Smh No winning with some people.
The Cubs are the best team in baseball they just don’t realize it yet
And neither does anyone else.
Yep just ask a Cubs fan!
Anyone that that thought the Mets were serious contenders at season’s start were deluding themselves. Yeah, they were intriguing with a couple elite pitchers, and all the changes, but on paper, they still weren’t as likely a contender as the Braves, Nat’s, or Phillies. It was possible, with some luck, that they might have been in contention for a WC, but the fact that they aren’t is not that big a surprise. Given what the Phillies did, signing Harper, and acquiring Realmuto, both more positive moves than anything the Mets did, makes them a much bigger disappointment than the Mets.
Padres could still make the playoffs but with all that young talent stacked up you would have thought they would have packaged some of it for a quality veteran starter.
The Mets are the Mets.
The Phillies upgraded a lot but Nola hasn’t been himself and the rotation on the back end has been plug, play and hope. They are another team that could have used a veteran starter.
The Cubs still seem like the biggest disappointment. Theo seems to have lost his magic touch these last few years and Madden seems to have forgotten how to manage.
To me, it has to be the Phillies. I mean, on paper they looked like a legit 100-win team and easy contender in the NL. Adding Harper obviously hasn’t reaped any true rewards yet and even their “safe” acquisitions like David Robertson, Jean Segura, and Jake Arrieta (’18) haven’t panned out. Couple that with Aaron Nola taking a big step back and the younger talent on the team (Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, Nick Pivetta, and Vincent Velasquez) underperforming and failing to take the next step in their development, this team is just a collection of “guys” right now.
I don’t think anyone in the World that follows baseball considered the Phillies were going to even sniff 100 wins.
I agree that the Phillies are the biggest disappointment. Their sole all-star Realmuto, who everyone says is the best catcher in baseball…looks pretty mediocre to me. Harper tries too hard. Probably to justify his contract to himself. They don’t seem like a team. More like a put together by a committee club. Kapler is clueless and looks foolish as a manager. Thank God football is coming soon. Not buying any tickets for the Diamond Club this year and probably for all too many to come. Sad.
The Padres have actually surprised me.
Nobody should expect the Cards to win with Mozeliak and Matheny, Jr. Leading the team.
I do not understand your blind hatred for Mozeliak. There is nothing that suggests what you feel. I get it, you’re entitled and want to put the blame somewhere so you put it in the easiest place but have a little intellectual honesty with yourself here; he spent money on prime talent. You can’t argue with that. He literally got the best 1B and best LH Reliever in the game.
Now, Shildt is absolutely Matheny 2.0. Moves need to be made with the lineup and he still doesn’t have the guts to make them. He is somehow more loyal than Matheny was. Everybody forgets that the Cardinals didn’t start winning when Shildt took over last year, it was after Fowler broke his foot and forced Shildt to play someone else. He has too much loyalty to veterans and will not play the players that need to be played. Clapp should have gotten that job last year.
It’s not blind hatred. The guy has made horrible trades the last few years. This guy had no idea about being a GM 10 years ago. It’s when Jeff Lunhow went to the Astros to be their scouting guy is when Mo started bombing. Because he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Giving Carp, Mikolas, wong etc extensions way before needed. The guy is a moron and so is our GM. Dewitt is cheap owner and just too nice of a guy to fire Mo, or he just doesn’t care because we keep packing the stadium. A shake up is in order and its from the roster to the FO.
Chris, thanks for explaining this to the blind. I didn’t realize it needed explaining since it’s plain as day, but I was wrong.
I was a big Mo guy earlier on (ask anyone who follows MLBTR) but honestly my loyalty is starting to wane…but you can’t say Dewitt is cheap…the cardinals have the 6th highest payroll…and fault has to be given to the players in a sense…mainly Goldy…he was supposed to transform this offense…in which he has…it is a terrible offense and so is Goldy
There is plenty of blame to spread all over for that team. From the FO on down. Wong’s extension is pretty harmless. It’s not even close to big money until next season and 2021 is a club option. The Carpenter and Mikolas extensions were completely unnecessary. The Yadi extension was much help either. But the real killers for the FO are the Fowler & Cecil contracts and bringing Waino back, even at that low cost.
Goldy looks completely lost, but giving up on him, as some have, after half a season is crazy. The fact is, not one single player is living up to good expectations.
Nick Steven A GM in his own mind!
Or, …
Phillies. The Mets were only superficially improved and were still generally the same blurgh team that can’t stay healthy either physically or mentally, The Brewers didn’t really address their rotation, The Cubs were projected to be mediocre (remember all the gnashing of teeth over that?), The Rockies were a fluke (85 win Pythagorean record) that have been making generally poor decisions for the last 5 years.
The Cardinals are the only real other contender, and I’d say the sheer amount of new talent brought in by the Phillies is what catapults them to #`1.
How could people pick the Mets? It was quite obvious they would be a train wreck again
Well, as a Braves fan, I’m delighted that the Mets and Phillies are sinking at the All-Star break. I didn’t think Harper would be the savior in Philly. Their manager is inconsistent; his lack of experience certainly a contributing factor to their freefall in the second half last season. It’s a long season and there’s plenty of time for changes in the standings. I did note that at this time last year, the Braves trailed the Phillies by one-half game. They finished the year 8 games up. Anything can happen.
Clearly the Phillies.
At the start of the season, most Phans felt the pen was a major strength. Injuries aside, and there has been plenty, the have been woeful.
The rotation is weak. Aaron Nola is just now becoming Cy Nola. Jake Arrietta is in retro grade. It’s hard to watch.
As a whole, the pitchers are currently leading all of baseball in giving up home runs and it has nothing to do with Citizens Bank Park. They have been generous gives in all parks.
Harper is doing good, not great. He plays hard all the time. This phan has no complaints. Realmuto has not been himself at the plate, but behind it he has been the best in the game. Just outstanding. Segura has played s solid SS, his hitting is below what he’s don in the past 3 years.
I think Maikel Franco is in his last year with the Phillies. I think Rendon extends with the Nats, but if available, I see the Phillies going all in for him.
To sum up, what the Phillies need is pitchers. After that, pitchers with some pitchers on the side.
Nobody with any baseball intelligence thought the Mets were going to contend anyway.
I would say 3) Mets, 2) Cardinals and 1) Nats:
I can understand why the Mets are not winning. Whenever a team makes near wholesale changes, the first year almost never brings a winner. There is no core. If the team stays together, next season is a whole different story.
The Cards and the Nats have a core and neither made sweeping changes. The Cards made one big change at 1B but their pitching has all but disintegrated while key players are suffering from that infamous “sophomore slump”. Still, they are deep and should have a better record than they do now… IMO.
The Nats are simply under-performing again. I blame the Manager because the Nats are not ready to play every night.
All that “stupid money” the Phillies spent hasn’t produced much.
Stupid money: aka money spent by stupid people
Easiest Poll EVER…It’s gotta be the Mets!!! I mean C’mon how could you vote for anything else, Even the Giants and Reds have better records at the break(only the Marlins have a worse record in the NL) No-Brainer, the METS!!!
Why are the cubs even in the poll? They are not only gonna win the division they are gonna try for more bullpen arms and be dominant.
Why did anyone expect anything from the Mets? This is a serious question