Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Wednesday morning that Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman will become one of the most notable names on the free-agent market in the offseason. Chapman still has two years and $30MM left on the five-year, $86MM contract he signed entering 2016, but a source told Rosenthal the left-hander is “one million percent” likely to exercise his opt-out clause and revisit the open market in a few months. Chapman subsequently denied the report, but the still-great fireballer does seem like a realistic candidate to outdo the remainder of his current contract in free agency. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes expects Chapman to opt out, having ranked the Cuban flamethrower sixth in his most recent list of potential free agents.
There may be an argument for Chapman to stay put, though, if you consider the less-than-ideal trip to free agency fellow longtime standout closer Craig Kimbrel took this past season. Kimbrel, thanks in part to a qualifying offer, went until early June without a contract before finally signing with the Cubs. But Kimbrel showed real signs of decline in 2018, and despite that, the 31-year-old still signed a three-year, $43MM contract worth a substantial amount more than what’s left on Chapman’s pact.
Chapman, who will turn 32 next February, remains a game-ending force. The former Red and Cub has lost a bit of velocity this season, but he’s still throwing near 100 mph. He’s also the owner of a 2.45 ERA/2.09 FIP with 13.01 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, a 45.8 percent groundball rate and 25 saves in 29 chances across 36 2/3 innings this year. Neither lefties nor righties have done much to solve Chapman, who has yielded a .257 weighted on-base average/.263 expected wOBA in 2019.
Not only has Chapman thrived again this year, but no other reliever would offer a better track record than him in free agency. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen could opt out of the two years and $38MM left on his contract, but he has been more vulnerable than usual this season. Giants closer and impending free agent Will Smith has been tremendous this year, though he can’t match Chapman’s long-term excellence. Meanwhile, Chapman’s teammate Dellin Betances has enjoyed a phenomenal career as a setup man, yet multiple injuries have prevented him from pitching at all this season. The rest of the impending free-agent class doesn’t approach Chapman.
If there’s one factor that could significantly tamp down Chapman’s earning power, it’s a qualifying offer. Teams didn’t want to cough up a massive amount of money and surrender a draft pick for Kimbrel or starter Dallas Keuchel, two stars who sat without a job until last month. Chapman would also have a QO and draft compensation hanging over his head, as there’s no chance the Yankees would allow him to leave without getting something in return. But it’s improbable that would be enough to stop Chapman from giving free agency another whirl during the upcoming winter. What do you expect him to do?
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Yes, relievers have getting paid the last couple off-seasons, and he’s one of the best closers. I think someone will give him a big contract.
Just like kimbrel right ?
Chapman isn’t the same pitcher he was 3 years ago. That ws run changed him.
Kimbrel has a better contract than Chapman does right now so you’d have to try again there.
He’ll just sign bk with the Evil Empire like he did after the Cubs. Just a way to squeeze more money out.
He opts out and then quickly resigns with the Yankees for an added year or two and a small raise.
Could see the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, and Braves all bid a lot of money for him. Even sleeper teams like the White Sox and Padres will bid for him. Easily could get 4/80 on the market.
Braves… no never. They don’t shop in that aisle. But they’ll tell you they do!
He’ll resign for 2 additional years on top of the current ones. However, more issue with Ken Rosenthal, who also seems to get in these predicaments. Seems like he like to site “anonymous” sources for things that probably will come to fruition. A way to say “I said it first.”
If you won’t name your source, they don’t exist.
I think he will opt out…and re-sign back with the Yankees for more money/years.
he options out even if he gets a kimbrel deal. thats still an extra 13 million for a 3rd year.
Does Aroldis Chapman get a vote? ’cause he said the Rosenthal report is a lie.
Let him go…getting older
He’s still an elite closer who doesn’t need to get hitters without 3-digit heat.
Opt out and re-sign with the Yankees
I don’t know what 40% of the people see here. Yankees fans who’d prefer he didn’t? Really worried about him suffering an injury? Imploding like Trevor Rosenthal between now and then?
If he pitches at this level there’s absolutely no chance he doesn’t opt out or get an extension from NY.
A good portion of the 40% probably see him signing an extension which isn’t an option in the poll.
I hope he walks! Not nearly as effective as he once was!!
Not nearly as effective as he once was!!
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Have any numbers to support that? Last year, he had a 2.45 ERA and a 2.09 FIP, and this year it is all the way up to a 2.45 & 2.10.
In addition, he has his best K/W since 2016. And leads the league in saves. He’s not as good as in his prime, but pretty close.
As a RS fan, I hope you are right.
That seems insane for Chapman to opt out of his contract with the Yankees!!! He’s on a young winning team already. Making $15 million a year. Because of the Qualifying offer, in Chapman’s case, the signing team would have to give player or draft compensation. If he opts out, I see Chapman not throwing a baseball until June. Just like Kimbrell.
Kimbrel didn’t have big market teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. bidding for him. Market conditions were different then. Won’t be the same this winter.
Kimbrel just signed for more money than Chapman will make with the remainder of his contract. And his problem is that his idiot agent said he wanted 6 years & $100M+.
I’d bet real money that, if Chapman asks for $68M/4, the RS, Phillies, Nationals, and maybe StL all raise their hands. He’d be signed the first day of free agency.
I feel like this is a situation that could resolve itself like the Sabathia opt out back in 2011. Where CC used his opt out clause as a way to get a new contract that was basically his existing contract with an extra year on it. He went from having 4 years left on his existing deal to a new deal for 5 years at the same AAV. I can see Chapman and the Yankees tearing up his current deal that calls for 2 more years after this one and penning a 3 year pact at the same AAV.
Also, after reading Chapman’s comments it seems like he’s concerned about trade protection. He enjoyed no trade protection for the past 3 seasons but in years 4 and 5 he can be traded.
So if I’m the Yankees and he asks for an additional 2 or even 3 years, which he most likely will then I’d counter with 1 additional year but give him no trade protection for all 3 years as a sweetner.
Because if you look at their roster construction now and the players that they have coming and their record for the past 2 years if you have to trade Chapman again in 2021 or 2022 something has gone off of the rails anyway,
Likeliest scenario is an opt-out to restructure with Yanks for 4 years instead of two.
I’m guessing, however, Yanks FO won’t play games with him. If he wants to test the market, they’ll let him go meet with other teams. They’ll probably give until the end of the period to attach a QO for him to take their deal, and then won’t budge and let him walk if he doesn’t take it.
I think it is almost automatic that the NYY extend. It’s only a question if they go to 3 or 4 years. I think it is flat-out impossible that he doesn’t get at least 3 years on the open market. Davis got $52M/3 and Kimbrel got $3M/2.5. And the NYN (sorry, the woebegone NYMs) took on much of Cano’s salary, plus two good prospects, to get Diaz.
Heck, as a RS fan, I’d gladly give him $54M/3. And that’s probably the threat that will get the NYY to move.