As the Red Sox continue their search for bullpen help and the Mets continue to puzzle onlookers, the two teams have been in touch about a potential Edwin Diaz deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted early this morning that third base prospect Bobby Dalbec or corner infielder Triston Casas would likely be targeted as the centerpiece of any deal by the Mets. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets that Boston has indeed discussed a possible Diaz swap with the Mets, though, adding that the Red Sox are likely to add at least one, if not two relievers in the coming days. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there’s “nothing hot” between the two sides at the moment, however.
It’s shaping up to be quite the deadline for the Mets, who shipped their two best pitching prospects to the Blue Jays yesterday in a trade that netted them Marcus Stroman. At the same time, the Mets appear poised to trade away some combination of Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Jason Vargas, Todd Frazier and Diaz — the latter of whom was portrayed as a signature offseason acquisition in what proved a near-immediately regrettable trade with the Mariners.
Instead of anchoring the bullpen and reprising his role as one of the game’s premier relievers, Diaz has taken a step back in nearly every category this season. The 25-year-old has seen virtually every one of his rate stats — strikeout, walk, home-run, ground-ball, swinging-strike, hard-hit and opponent chase — trend in the wrong direction. His premium velocity has held strong, as he’s averaged 97.2 mph on his heater, but the across-the-board results for Diaz have been ugly. It doesn’t help him that the Mets’ defense is awful, but he’s sitting on a bloated 4.95 ERA and has already allowed more runs, hits and homers in 40 innings this season than he did in 72 1/3 frames last year. A 3.24 xFIP and 2.87 SIERA each portend better days, but it’s tough to understate what a disappointing season it’s been for Diaz so far.
All of that said, Diaz appears healthy and still possesses an elite arsenal of pitches. Paired with the fact that he’s not eligible for arbitration until this winter and can be controlled through the 2022 season, Diaz’s plus raw stuff surely gives other clubs confidence that he can be fixed (be it through pitch selection, a mechanical adjustment, improved defense behind him, etc.). The Boston bullpen has lacked established talent all season, and the relief corps has been particularly problematic this summer.
As for the Mets, they seemingly hope to structure their 2020 rotation around 2018 Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and Stroman — a fine one-two combination, to be sure — and believe they’ll get more in trading away others than they surrendered to acquire Stroman. While they can’t unscramble the egg, so to speak, and recoup the value they lost in dealing Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista to the Mariners (while taking on half the remaining money on Robinson Cano’s deal), the apparently forthcoming slate of trades should indeed replenish their farm to an extent. Syndergaard has more trade value than Stroman did, and Diaz should fetch some quality young talent if he is indeed shipped off.
Nonetheless, it’d be a dizzying sequence of moves that wouldn’t clearly leave the Mets better off than they started. While it’s commendable, on the one hand, that the team continues to eye contention in the short-term rather than acquiesce to the growing trend of large-scale rebuilds, the tightrope act the Mets look to be attempting is rife with risk. Perhaps moving Diaz and Syndergaard can each net a near-MLB-ready asset or two, but it’s not at all clear that they’d be in a better position with Stroman and those theoretical young assets. Stroman himself isn’t a particularly controllable player, after all, as he’ll be a free agent in the 2020-21 offseason. If things go south again next year, he’d likely be traded as a rental for less than the Mets paid to acquire him. And, in moving Diaz by Wednesday, they’d open a need for further late-inning bullpen help in the offseason — the very same need that led to this situation.
Diaz for JDM: do it.
As a Red Sox fan I don’t know about this
Diaz to Boston makes no sense…RHP in relief…. 4.95 ERA and 1.45 WHIP…I think the Red Sox already have 5 or 6 of those guys in the pen….
He hasn’t been great but has limited truly bad games. Only 4 games over 1 run allowed, which has skewed his ERA.
Thru May 28, his ERA was 1.64.
Since July 6, his ERA is 1.35.
3.24 FIP
13.7 K/9
2.9 BB/9
6.2 scoreless streak
HRs have been the main issue, but he’s only allowed once long ball in his last nine innings.
I guess it depends on his stats this year or last… the juiced ball year he is stinking… and the want two of our top four… that sounds alittle steep considering they got Stroman for two outside the top 100
It’s Dalbec OR Casas in the article, not both
Ppl keep repeating that it’s 2 outside of the top 100, but Kay is and will be in the top 100 going forward and Woods is a raw 18yo with a *really* high upside. Who knows if either will pan out, but the reason why TOR likely took the deal was there were no other offers that had the upside arms that the Mets offered. Kay has been hurt and he struggled during his initial promotion, but his pedigree is what you want and you hope he adjusts…which he should do. They are flawed, but that’s why they aren’t both ranked much higher.
Well, just to correct you on one thing, Kay will not be a Top 100 prospect. He was on the list before MLB just updated it a few days ago and he was knocked out of it. I’m no professional scout but I’m sure he got knocked off for a reason.
As for Woods-Simeon, I agree, that kid is nasty. At the end of the day, he is the one who will have a bigger MLB impact.
I’m sure the Mets made the best offer at that moment for Strowman but the Jay’s should have waited another day or two. Contending teams get more desperate as that deadline nears, especially that MLB no longer has the August trade period. That’s why I personally feel like this was a steal for the Mets.
Side note, I believe the reason why BVM was comfortable making this deal because he knows that the Mets just drafted & signed two pitchers with much higher upsides than Kay & Woods-Simeon and they would be Matthew Allan & Josh Wolf.
Why are you posting this here? It may be valid but it has nothing to do with the topic(s) being discussed in the article or in the comments…
Well, if you would have read the comment I was replying to, you would have reas that he was referring to both Anthony Kay & Woods-Simeon.
The two best pitchers in the Mets system.
It’s Simeon Woods-Richardson bro. If you’d actually seen him, you’d have some idea of his name.
And I’m not bashing the return, I think it’s reasonable. I’m just suggesting to others that’s the value of Stroman, and to get rid of these grandiose ideas of multiple top prospects for relief pitchers or #3 SPs
@bencole I realized that afterwards, Haha. I guess I think Woods-Simeon sounded cooler……don’t know. Either way, he’s a solid prospect.
Mets need young relief pitching a SS and CF. A ready made CF like Bradley or SS like Bogarts won’t happen unless Wheeler/Diaz are a package. Then Mets can get 1 of those guys.
the Mets already have a Bradley in Lagares. they don’t need a SS – Rosario has just had a bad defensive year for whatever reason and their top prospect is a SS.
Two of our top prospects are SS – Gimenez & Mauricio.
They also have two top 100 prospects in baseball that are both SS (Giminez & Mauricio). But prospect depth can’t hurt
Correction, the Mets have three Top 100 prospects. Brett Baty is on the list as well.
You won’t get on of those guys for a Wheeler/Diaz package either, that’s silly.
The only way the Red Sox get Diaz is if Casas is in the deal. Casas offers more prospect appeal than Dalbec. The Mets could easily ask for both, the Red Sox have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Hence why they only have one Top 100 prospect.
I think Dalbec is legit… I know his Average isn’t what anyone would like to see right now in AA… but even with the low average his OBP is still impressive and his Power is very, very impressive no matter how you look at it. I agree Casas probably has a higher ceiling and honestly as a Sox fan I’d be sad to see either go… BUT having said that – if they do move one of them, I have to say I am on board with it being for a 20-something year old Closer. Granted his ERA is a bit high this season but otherwise his stuff looks good, and he’s still striking guys out etc. I Certainly think he’s a legit RP – not just a ‘one-hit wonder’ if you will from last season.
The Sox wouldn’t deal Bogaerts. Too valuable for Wheeler and Diaz. The Mets would have to give more
*One
Hey Seaver-Trader Dave just agreed to trade Dustin Pedroia to get Diaz.
According to Brody, “We now have the best depth at 2B”!
Was mentioning Bogaerts a joke? Not even a 1 on the 1 -10 scale if it was. He’s becoming the best hitting shortstop in this juiced ball area and is just entering his prime.
Lol.. Bogarts is going nowhere…he just signed a reasonable longterm contract.. they are not trading a player with his numbers
Buy high, sell low. Nailed it.
Trading him would be a mistake
The mistake Brodie needs to fix is Ramos
He is not a good catcher for pitchers who like to work low in the zone
They get a better defensive catcher and the pitching will improve
I say keep Diaz, extend Thor and Stroman and give Wheeler the qualifying offer. Get whatever u can for Vargas, Frazier, Ramos, Dom Smith, Lagares and Rosario to get a new few kids. In 15 months, Cespedes is gone. Then sign Lindor and a RH Hitting OF and I like the future. David Peterson will be the 5th starter by then if Wheeler leaves. Degrom, Thor, Stroman, Matz and Peterson could keep BVW around.
While they’re at it… why not trade for Machado, Trout and Kershaw? It’s simple really… from 0 to hero for the whole club overnight!!!
I agree with this, especially the first sentence, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t do anything else before the deadline. Maybe they can get something for Frazier, maybe not. Almost definitely won’t get anything for Lagares. Dom’s injury made it very hard to trade him now. If they can’t get anything for Vargas, they could make him the long man for the rest of the year and consider his option if Wheeler finds someone else to take him with the QO hanging over him. Next year, Lagares’ and Frazier’s roster spots will go to “healthy” Cespedes and Lowrie. On paper that team next year looks like it could be a contender if there’s a respite from the injuries.
Can you please clarify what you mean by “healthy”?
Brodie could trade Wheeler to the Yankees for Ellsbury-that wayntue mets would have 3 “healthy” players next year.
Better chance of the Mets moving to Brooklyn, taking Citi Field with them…
Spot on comment. Looking at Ramos’ splits compared to Nido/non-Ramos catchers and it is really stark. Ugly difference that I’m too lazy to look up at the moment.
Hey Bart-I think that Cano is rubbing off on you and causing you to be lazy.
HAHA….quite possible. If I start using steroids I’ll know for sure he is rubbing off on me.
Having observed Dombrowski over the years I can see the Mets pulling off a deal with the Red Sox.
Would have to be for a ML hitter and/or prospects. For Benetendi, I can see a Wheeler & Diaz deal
Lol good one
That’s an interesting trade. Down year for both guys.
Benny recently fixed a flaw in his swing and has been red hot since then.
Yeah I agree Benintendi looks like he’s sorted things out and has been ON FIRE lately. No way the Sox deal him now… and also why would the Sox even be interested in Wheeler? Not that he’s not better than some of the Sox pitchers but unless they’re going to drop one of their current 5 SPs from the rotation (which is VERY unlikely – given who they are: Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez and the newly acquired Cashner) there’s no spot for Wheeler on the team. Plus I think the Mets would jump at the opportunity to get a package centered around Casas or Dalbec for Diaz right now. Both are really legit power-hitting prospects and getting one of them with another 1/2 decent minor leaguers would be a solid haul for a guy who’s ERA is almost 5!
Honestly IMO the Mets should hang onto Diaz and hope he rebounds to be the player they gave so much up for this past off-season. But if they are intent on recouping some value out of what they feel is a failed trade – I don’t think they’d really do better than Casas/Dalbec. As a Red Sox fan I feel like it would be hard to see either of them go… but I also think Diaz might be the perfect scenario where I’d be alright with them parting with one of the two — as the Sox desperately need a CL (now and long-term) and I truly believe Diaz can be just that — his stuff and K/9 are still there… a little bit better luck and I think he’d be back on track to the all-star caliber CL he was a year ago!
The Wheeler stuff is DOA. A month ago, maybe. But they won’t be trading to upgrade from Cashner to Wheeler.
You don’t think Wheeler would be an upgrade from Cashner or Erod down the home stretch? You Red Sox fans are just about as delusional about your own players and values as us Mets fans are about our players/values
Cashner has gotten crushed thus far in Boston:
2019 BOS: 6.11 ERA 5.66FIP, 2HR/9. He also costs $9m+ to Wheeler’s $5.9m.
Gotta throw out his first start, got thrown off normal pitching time due to trade. Last outung beat the Yanks and was solid, that’ll work as #5.
My preference was for Wheeler, but once we acquired Cashner, why do we need another #5? And, just in case NYMs fans don’t get the newspaper anymore, Cashner has been better this year than Wheeler.
Even from a career perspective, Wheeler’s WAR/162 is 2.2, while Cashner is at 1.6. So the difference is 0.6 per full year, which makes it an improvement of 0.2 WAR over 2 months.
Maybe explain what you think we should give up for this 0.2 improvement?
I counter with Syndergaard for a bag of balls.
FWIW, this trade simulator gives a trade of Andrew Benintendi and Ryan Brasier for Edwin Diaz and Zack Wheeler precisely $58.5 million in surplus value on each side:
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Does it account for Wheelers free agency as that sounds absurd?
Because of his pending free agency, Zack Wheeler is valued at only $11.2 million with Edwin Diaz providing the remaining $47.3 million in surplus value:
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Andrew Benintendi is listed with $58.6 in surplus value and Ryan Brasier with a negative value of $100,000.
Just to get some background on how you come up with the values, if Wheeler is valued at $11.2 million, with 35% of the season left, is it a straight extrapolation to suggest that he is worth ~ $32 million over a full season?
@Muskie73
According to this trade simulator the Braves should be able to trade Bryse Wilson to the Blue Jay’s for both Giles and Biagini…it would actually still be in the Blue Jay’s favor…Gohara and Allard for those 2 would be equal according to this trade simulator.
If you’re the Blue Jay’s do you trade both of those guys for Allard and Gohara? I do as a Braves fan.
You also wouldn’t get Benetendi for Wheeler and Diaz, this is also silly. These hypothetical trades are rough today… look what a year and a half of Stroman went for.
Oh man…that would be interesting. I’m not sure BOS would consider it because what if he bounces back? Edwin already has numbers to show he is not nearly as bad as he pitched in June…every other month and underlying peripherals suggest it was a bad month and not a complete regression in talent/ability.
Pretty sure the Mets didn’t call them……
The Mets need a C,CF,BP and a SP why trade for a 1b/3b when we have them in Alonso and JD Davis
Exactly. The Mets have corner infielders and outfields in spades on the current roster. As @jvent wrote, they need CF, C, SP, and maybe a RP or two, but frankly those should be pieced together with cheaper 1-2yr contract guys.
Mets should keep Diaz at least one more season then decide to keep or trade but should trade one of Syndergaard or Wheeler.
Dombrowski has a history of building lousy bullpens. For this alone. If he’s saying it’s a good move then the Sox should walk away.
#6, #2, and #5 in ERA over the three previous seasons. Even this year, at #10, you have to keep in mind that we devoted virtually all our resources to everything but the BP.
I don’t see how that trade would be something that the Mets would consider (even with several other pieces).
Casas/Dalbec might be two of the Sox top three prospects, but they seem to be repetitive additions for the Mets.
Wouldn’t they look to trade Diaz to a team with pitching depth in the minors (something the Red Sox do not have)?
Without taking from the MLB roster, BOS needs a third team to come in who has prospects. Given that BOS is also up against the luxury tax…ugh…that’s a tough set of circumstances that need to be navigated in the next two days.
Cant be any worse than what’s back there now. Id rather have Diaz than Brasier. Hope they dont overpay.
So Diaz for 1 top 100 prospect when the Yankees, Astros, A’s and others have multiple. “Come get us”
Are the Yankees still looking at closers? How many do they want?
Again, look at the Stroman trade Wheeler is worth significantly less than that with 2 months control and a poor season, I think the mets would take such an offer.
It’s not a “poor” season by wheeler…he still has a 3.67FIP. He has a lousy defense behind him that has cost him a bunch of runs.
Yeah fair enough. I meant poor results, and I’m not suggesting he’s bad, but he’s basically down in every statistical metric from his really good season last year. Poor would be relative to his recent trade value.
The Mariners sure do have a history of fleecing New York teams. The Mets got robbed on the Cano/Diaz trade, the Yankees got fleeced on Paxton, giving up Justus Sheffield for a year of control over a guy throwing to an ERA around 4, and while Jesus Montero proved to be an absolute bust, Michael Pinata as I like to call him was almost equally bad between injuries and an inability to get guys out.
I’d almost call the Pineda trade a wash if not for the fact that he actually pitched for the Yankees, whereas Jesus Montero was effectively out of Seattle a year later and out of baseball 6 months after that.
On this topic, though, Diaz to Boston makes absolutely no sense for either side if the above return is what’s actually being discussed. What about Diaz AND Thor for Gore+, or Thor to SD for any of SD’s other top prospects and packaging Diaz with Wheeler to a team like the Cubs or Dodgers?
Justus has been so bad for SEA that he pitched his way back to AA. He’s pitched well since being there, but considering he first reached that level in 2016, he should be handling it well. Paxton has been a disappointment, but to call that one a fleecing is a little early.
Can you explain how the Yankees got “fleeced” in the Paxton deal? Other that you just being completely biased, what’s your logic?
Don’t you have to actually give up good players in order to get fleeced?
Can you please tell us what Sheffield and swanson are doing for Seattle that qualifies this as a “fleecing” in your tiny brain?
Are you kidding me? I am so tired of my Seattle team trading with the Yankees crap heap of want-to-be prospects. Yankees Farm system literally sucks, and somehow the Yanks have a way to over value their prospects just so they can fleece everyone else. Seattle got totally fleeced in the Paxton deal.
I was shocked on the return Seattle got out of the Mets Cano/Diaz deal. Seattle scored big on that trade with the Mets, while able to walk away from the majority of the Cano remaining deal. But we had to give up Diaz. No one expected Diaz to have this kind of bloated ERA. The guys never had one hiccup in Seattle for the several years in MLB. I would love for Seattle to somehow find a way to get him back on a buy-low deal for him whether he’s still with the Mets or elsewhere.
After the offseason Seattle Farm jumped from #28 all the way to #10. Then after the June 2019 draft it jumped all the way to #5. Seattle is bound to get a few more decent prospects out of Santana/Leake/Gearrin/Bass.
The Pads aren’t trading Gore. They’ve basically said so already.
Gore would be the only reason you offer Wheeler + Diaz, and it’s need to be Gore+ coming back, but obviously more lotto ticket type guys. If they want Syn +, then the Mets should wait for the off-season and involve other teams to find multiple MLB-near ready guys and have them fight it out. The difference between 3 runs in the playoffs and 2 runs in the playoffs likely wont’ be that much different in regard to what the team gives up, but it behooves teams in the playoff hunt to make the trade now and get that third year of Syn for a playoff run.
I believe there’s a real chance they do trade Thor and Diaz, it may well be to the Padres, and the Padres most certainly won’t send Gore back, even with just junk with him. Whether you think they should hold or not, I think its 50/50 they don’t, and no matter where they trade those guys they’re not getting a guy like Gore back. You can say that should be his value, but its simply not going to be in real life. The Mets are going to have the choice to take it or leave it, we’ll see what they do, but any conversation of Gore I think is out of the question. And I’m not a fan of either team.
Gore+ for 2 months of Wheeler and a reliever? Come on bro, that’s not even in the ballpark of reality.
I know it’s a tall ask, though all of Diaz’s peripherals are strong. Everyone sees the 4.95ERA, but any smart team would see the issue is with his slider and bad coaching and bad catching from the Mets. It’s not only fixable, but he’s already bouncing back.
No, it’s totally and utterly ridiculous, even if Diaz was exactly the same pitcher he was last year. Like way, way out of wack.
Different generations but the most lopsided Yankees-Mariners trade was Ken Phelps for Jay Buhner.
If Bobby Dalbec is a centerpiece, every team in the league can beat that offer with ease.
Well, of course they can…. but they probably won’t.
deGrom , Stroman, Syndergaard. That sounds like a nice 1 – 3 in mets starting rotation.
Isn’t that exactly what they said this year, and the year before?
The Mets are just clueless
Bobby Dalbec sucks. If he’s the centerpiece, I want Brodie’s head on a stick
Red Sox farm system stinks no thanks
I think this would be a great pickup for the Sox not only this season but longterm. Giving up Dalbec or Casas is a rough pill to swallow as I think both could be legitimate power hitters in the ML in a year or two (maybe 3 for Casas as he’s younger but still… both IMO are legit ML power threats) BUT having said that… if they do deal one of them I think Diaz is a good target. Granted he hasn’t had the best statistical season thus far this year but he was dominant last year and his stuff still seems to be there so I think he could get back to being a dominant CL. Also he’s one of the very few top shelf quality RP who’s actually making such a low salary that the Sox could potentially manage to avoid the top tax penalty if acquired.
Both prospects are crap and not worth Diaz, even together.
Dude, not a Sox fan, but Casas can rake
…and play…where? The Mets already have a 1B in Alonso…likely rookie of the year and he may even get some MVP votes this season. At 2B they have Cano/McNeil. SS is Rosario/Gimenez, 3B is McNeil/Cano/JD Davis…admittedly JD is a utility guy.
OF currently signed who could play next year: Conforto (already an All-star), Nimmo (great player, healthy….iffy), Dom Smith (replaceable), Cespedes (healthy is a question), McNeil if he gets bumped from the OF, The mets have said repeatedly they want a real CF instead of shoehorning in Nimmo or Conforto..who have done decently considering they have been out of position.
They already have too many bat first guys and you want to add another who has a nice bat upside, but he is really a 3B. Maybe he could play a corner in the OF, but the Mets have too many of them already. Maaaaaybe if there was a DH the Mets could dump Cano in the DH and have a use for Casas, but the DH is at least 2021 or later.
Triston Casas is hitting .252 in 390 plate appearances as a 19-year-old at Single A (albeit with an OPS of .833 and a wRC+ of 136).
Batting average is hardly relevant to the evaluation of a player. While we’re at it, you should have mentioned how many sacrifice flys he has
You don’t measure A Ball prospects as to where they play, much like in the draft you just take the best player available. And he started his minor league career at 3B, not sure if he can stick that. Not sure if the Mets care that much about infield defense anyway, look at their team.
Feel free to offer relevant information beyond OPS, wRC+, age and level.
He’s 19. His potential is based on what scouts saw in him already not what he’s done this year.
I have no issue with the other two, but the subject of your sentence, the main body, suggests that his batting average is .252, and that that’s a significant negative. It’s hardly relevant.
Feel free to offer relevant information beyond OPS, wRC+, age and level.
——————————————————
Two other considerations that I consider more important: development and K/W
1-The development is limited, but the #26 overall suggests he has a pedigree. And success at the A-level at age 19, having been injured last year, is good.
2-The K/W, which I value higher, is a respectable 96/45. The Ks are high, contributing to his .252 average, but the BB are also high, contributing to his .346 OBP.
There is some chance he becomes a three true outcome guy like Gallo. Gallo likewise, spent his age 19 season in A ball. More power, but Gallo also had a 37% K-rate, as opposed to Casas’ 25%. And Gallo had one extra year of development at that point.
So while I’ll agree that Diaz is clearly more valuable than Casas, I am also extremely pleased with Casas’ development.
Weak trolling.
Boston’s farm system is very weak. Neither Casas or Dalbeck are on Fangraphs top 100. Dalbeck is #90 on BA. If Dodgers don’t strike a deal with Pirates or Jays, they ought to be able to easily beat whatever offer Boston makes. Braves, Cubs should as well.
Yeah but Casas will be top 50-60 by next year. He’s just farther away.
I was never keen on Dalbec, but he’s done pretty well. A few too many Ks for my taste, but a ton of power, and actually owns a glove.
It doesn’t matter what the Mets do, you all will criticize and make it look like the worst move in the world. Bunch of Mets haters.
Good thing the front office of the Mets has proven those criticisms to be invalid, right?
The Cano/Diaz trade sucked, sure. Recent trades for Cespedes, Uribe, Kelly Johnson, Clippard – trading away players like Bruce, Granderson, Cabrera were all fine trades. Gotta hop off the Mets hating bandwagon my guy.
The Mets OWNERSHIP and front office deserve every last barb and criticism from the past 10+ years (at least post-madoff, but arguably well before). I hope the Mets either crush it with trades (HIGHLY unlikely) or they absolutely TANK and the baseball world ridcules them relentlessly. Nothing changes until the worst owners in pro sports sell the Mets.
Aside Kimbrel, DD does not have a great history trading for relievers in Boston.
Aside Kimbrel, DD does not have a great history trading for relievers in Boston.
————————————————————–
Kimbrel was a good deal.
Thornburg was a bad deal.
Smith was a wash.
Taylor was a good deal.
And I’m not sure how he gets away with such a bad K/W, but Brewer has been decent for us since his awful start.
Won’t happen, but…
If the Pirates could get a package from the Dodgers where the Pirates get and keep Ruiz and May and some other pieces to put together a package for Edwin Diaz, then I’ll drive Felipe Vazquez to the airport.
Obviously you are a Pirates fan so let me give it to you straight the Pirates need a hell of a lot more than just a closer.
Which is probably why my concept had them landing a C, a SP and a closer.
Moreover, landing Ruiz and May is just not realistic.
Then Vazquez might want to paint his house, because he’s not moving with 4.5 years of control without it being an absurd package in return.
Look at the Stroman return… how much more is he worth than a #2-3ish SP with upside and a year and a half control? Answer… maybe a little more? Look, they probably don’t trade him for this reason, but Vasquez wouldn’t bring more than a bottom half of the top 100 prospect, an org top 10 and an org top 25 prospect. No one’s paying that. They’re just not.
Uh… no closer is getting more than 1 top 100 prospect in this year’s trade class, and no one in the Top 50… look at the Stroman deal, and SP’s are more valuable.
Exactly. However, Neal Huntington seems to oblivious to this point or just wants to keep Vazquez. I doubt seriously that Felipe will be traded. There are plenty of other closers available and Friedman will not overpay (Ruiz, Smith, May) for one of them when he can land a Giles, Iglesisas, Smith for much less.
The only guy he could have a chance at is Ruiz, just because of all the Dodgers depth there. But no one else gives up a top 50 prospect for Vasquez even. And therefore Pit won’t move him.
Dalbec is blocked with Devers and Chavis power bats ahead of him.
I B’s are a dime a dozen–move both for someone that knows how to close. May be having an off year still under control for a while.
JDM or Mookie or Bene as a headliner in a blockbuster trade must return Wheeler, Syn or Stroman plus Diaz and Conforto possibly Todd Fraser as well.
This makes absolutely no sense. None of those Red Sox are going anywhere, especially not to the Mets… and to be honest I don’t think I even understand what you are trying to suggest. We are all stupider just from having read this, and may God have mercy on your soul…
Where would JD Martinez play on the Mets? The other two guys would require significantly more in prospects and it’s not like the Mets are legit favorites to get to the WS in 2020. You make a deal for a guy with a couple years control when you are a player short of being a serious contender. The Mets needs to change out at least 1/3 of their roster (being generous) and it’s not like their ownership is going to spend money, I’m pretty sure they are allergic to pay full price v. scratch and dent on…..anything.
Chavis or Dalbec would go to Mets.
Mets will give him away for free.
wonder if Mets management should pull the plug on BVH now rather than watch another botched deal get made.
This really isn’t all that complicated for people lacking a Mets-hating/dissing agenda.
You trade for a proven, controllable big league pitcher in Stroman to replace the likely departing Wheeler or another starter, and then trade proven, controllable big league league pitchers for multiple, talented players netting more youngsters than the number traded away including obtaining players who fill needs and roles the Mets seek, both short and long term.
The idea that the Mets are trying to contend with the roster it has is the part that’s stupid. The organization has many talented players but they’re a long way back in the east and there isn’t an excuse for not trying to rebuild. What the Mets are trying to do isn’t the part the that’s hard to understand, its the thinking they’re good enough to continue to try this nonsense and the desire to sell tickets rather than win that passes understanding. It’s the plan that’s the problem, not its execution.
IF the Mets were ready to spend money…a rebuild makes sense.
IF the Mets had a solid stats group/scouting/infrastructure…a rebuild makes sense.
IF the Mets had a solid ownership group that were willing to do what it takes…a rebuild makes sense.
IF the Mets had a GM like Cashman or similar…a rebuild makes sense.
IF the Mets could take their young core (Pete, McNeil, Nimmo, Conforto, et al) and build around it instead of cheaping out year after year hoping hail mary scratch and dent signings miraculously work out…. a rebuild makes sense.
Right now, the Mets are trying to thread a needle on a runaway train with the bridge out a mile up hoping everything works out……or else. The Mets ownership and FO are not logical, they are flawed and deserve to fail, but for whatever reason us fans still stick around.
Spot on, imo. I like acquiring Stroman. But in order for it to work out, they have to be going for it in 2020. In order to go for it in 2020, they have to spend some money to make up for the fact that they have ~ $65M in salary doing almost nothing.
And they shouldn’t be going for it in 2020. There’s no excuse for that.
I disagree. Too much talent and they are a NY team. If this was KC, I’d trade everyone and tank hard. But an additional $60M investment should really make this a good team. You also need a new manager, but big market teams should only tank if it is 100% necessary.
Testing
diaz is worth more than these 2. throw Chavis in and then maybe we can talk
You’d only be getting one, as per the article. And no, he’s not worth more than those two if you move him now.
JD or Mookie to the Braves, Padres could bring some quality back.. These teams could realistically pay JD’s salary to $30 M for the balance of his contract or could provide Mookie with the contact he wants.. It would have to be a huge return for either of these all stars.
JDM is not getting you anything. His ~ $20M next year is about market price. There is no premium there.
Plus with the opt out teams would look at him as a bat only rental (limiting the market to just AL teams). He’d get a return for sure but certainly nothing that would make it worthwhile for the Sox to give him up. Especially if they still think they can win it this year.
This article says the same things multiple times, ie that the Mets aren’t clearly better off after all the moves they made.
It also says they took on half of Cano’s remaining money owed, but I thought they took on $20m out of the $24m he is owed each year. Can anyone confirm either way?
If BVM could trade Diaz for Triston Casas & Bobby Dalbec, that would be quite a get for a closer whose underperformed all season. BVM traded two prospects, that were not Top 100 prospects for Strowman and if he can then get one top 100 prospect(Casas) as well as an additional prospect, he would have not only replaced the two prospects he traded away but he would have also upgraded the Mets farm system.
The Mets would then have 4 Top 100 prospects:
Mauricio(84)
Baty(85)
Casas(90)
Gimenez(94)
BVM would still have the power to trade Syndergaard for a huge haul, if not, at least trade Wheeler for another decent prospect or two. Maybe offer Wheeler to the Padres for Michael Baez & Andres Munoz.
The comp pick would be better.
Maybe but why risk it. Wheeler could do what Keuchel & Kimbrel did and not sign until after the MLB draft. Then the Mets would have nothing.
Respectfully, I’m pretty stoked who the Mets gave us for Diaz. Two top 100 MLB prospects with Kelenic at #24 and Dunn at #67. Dunn is have a very solid year at AA and Kelenic has been promoted already to High A where he is 3.5 years younger than the average player. He’ll see AA at 20 years old. I’ve little doubt that he’ll be higher than 24 when the new rankings come out.
That said, I wish ya’ll the best in getting value back. God knows the M’s have a rabid history of trading away talent for busted up prospects. Sad on Diaz. Kid was a STUD for us. But he’s still young, averaging 97mph and this could simply be a hiccup in the 25 year olds career.
I appreciate that. When the Mets initially made the trade, I thought it made sense perfect sense. The headliner to me was Edwin Diaz, not Cano. But don’t get me wrong, I thought Cano would have a great season on 2019, especially coming back to NY but boy was I wrong. Kelenic is going to be a good player but it’s Dunn that hurts me the most that we traded away. Dunn is going to be a strikeout machine once he hits the majors, which will more than likely be in 2020.
I do hope BVM can maneuver some of these trade pieces and improve the farm system as well as the MLB roster, especially the bullpen.
Goodluck M’s fan.
Kelenic should be top 10-12 next year. The kid is raking and he has 5 tools. He is going to be solid for a decade or more in the majors. Dunn is a backend starter, but likley because of his size/durability concerns can have an upside RP arm. Kelenic is an absolute difference maker and he could be a perennial all-star, Dunn could be a solid backend piece for years to come.
And the Padres wouldn’t give you Baez. Wheeler is going to go for substantially less than Stroman I’d assume.
Why not, Baez is probably similarly ranked as Kay & Woods-Simeon. They weren’t Top 100 prospects nor are Baez or Munoz. The Mets could absolutely get Baez.
Because of the difference in control and recent performance. And some outlets are higher on Baez than that.
Corner bats are a dime a dozen in MLB. A guy needs to be next level like Papi in his prime or JD in his prime to remotely make sense for a corner bat to be worth a premium. As it stands now, the Red Sox have a barren minor league system and nearly nothing to trade for Diaz.
Do you know who could use Diaz….LAD. Jensen has been sketchy. They are locked and loaded for a WS run, but Jansen could easily piss it away. LAD is who needs Diaz, and while their ownership group is far far better than its predecessor, I’m not sure they will suck it up to get a top-end closer to make it happen. Yes Diaz’s number are down this season, but the underlying numbers are pretty good and he has the pedigree to bounce back.
As a Mets fan I’d love May + Lux + Verdugo for Diaz + Wheeler…but I know that is a pipedream, especially with Wagon Wheel negotiating.
Wow casas or dalbec? Yikes, hard pass!
Sooo the Mets added a player to make their strength stronger and now they’re looking to trade away a player to make their weakness even weaker? Does BVW understand how baseball works? The Mets’ bullpen is probably the worst in the league and he wants to potentially trade the reliever with the highest upside? And still expect to compete next season? How does any of that make sense? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Sox have plenty of room for both Dalbec in 2020 & Casas in 2021..
They have only 8 set for 2020 — 2 C’s plus OF Beni, Betts, JBJ (JD’s opt out could go either way) IF — Bogey, Devers, Chavis with FA’s Holt, Moreland.
I think Dalbec is the odd man out. He isn’t taking over for Devers or probably Chavis and Casas is the better prospect for first so he is redundant and tradable just the kind of guy DD will trade. Plus BA has him as a top 100 I believe 95. He is the most likely to go.
Sox should make that Diaz deal, neither Dalbec nor Casas is irreplaceable. Also, Marcus Stroman is overrated and, as such, a great fit for the Mets.
Do you know who doesn’t think Stroman is overrated…..anyone who understands analytics. His HR/9 rate is elite. His groundball rate is elite (in the juiced ball error). While his ERA and FIP bounce around, he is a solid pitcher who I could stomach starting a game 7 if needed.
Fangraphs wrote a great article on Stroman and why every club should be in on him. blogs.fangraphs.com/everyone-should-want-marcus-st…
Also…if you are the yankees….9 games up and nearly a lock for the playoffs…who pitches game 1? game 7? Paxton…underacheiving. Severino…hurt and a HORRIBLE line for the playoffs. CC…hurt. German….okay, but which German shows up…the guy with flashes of top-end stuff or the guy who will get shelled? JA Happ? Uhm…sure, but you better score 6-8+ runs. Tanaka….i guess, but he is far from a guy you would bet your season on. Tanaka as a 2-3 is a no brainer, but as a number 1 ace in a must win game……meh.
Watch the game. Stroman is a self-centered hot head that lacks the emotional control to be an elite pitcher. His final act as a Jay was to create a scene in the Toronto clubhouse as he left. He’s Jose Bautista Jr – no thanks. A young Jays club is far better off without Stroman’s influence.
I watch a lot of baseball and have seen Stroman pitch many times this season and prior seasons. He has/had some growing up to do, but the talent is there. The Mets have a pretty strong clubhouse of young guys, so it could go fine or…not. I guess we’ll find out, but yes…I agree there are some personality and behavioral considerations with Stroman, but talent plays.
Other teams can beat the Red Sox offer but other teams seem to be prospect hugging far more then Boston. DD will pull the trigger he has shown it before seems like most teams won’t part with a prospect like Casas but DD probably will.
His location of pitches has been horrible and hitters have figured out two obvious things: his fastball runs in, up and flat to righties and the one breaking pitch he can throw for strikes is a lazy curve on the outside corner. Doesn’t take much to figure out where to look. Look for the fastball up and in and turn on it. He is fooling no one and rarely gets swing and miss pitches.
If the Red Sox can get Diaz for Dalbec, the deal should be done already! Dalbec is a 24-year-old batting .230 in Double-A. He won’t be forcing his way into this lineup anytime soon. And even if he does prove a capable Major Leaguer someday and the Sox eventually find themselves needing a bat, plenty of veterans could fill such a void. Dalbec’s greatest value is in the perception of being a minor league prospect with power–capitalize on that now, before he proves he can’t hit Big League pitching.
Noooooooo! Do not give up either Triston or Dalbec
Noooooooo! Do not give up either Triston or Dalbec
Diaz for dalbec straight up.
Even the New York Mets won’t trade surplus value of $47.3 million in Edwin Diaz for surplus value of $13.2 million in Bobby Dalbec.
That’s not even close.
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
I wouldn’t over-invest in that website. It is interesting, but they have Vazquez (4+ years) rated the same as Diaz (3+ years). As of today, Vazquez is worth a good bit more.
And if they can’t get that right, what hope do they have of figuring out the future value of prospects? Might as well ask a crystal ball which player will have more surplus value.
An empirically based trade simulator valuation often conflicts with a personal evaluation.
Each assessment can be wrong but they can’t both be right. 😉
Posters to this discussion often provide the crystal ball.
* Vazquez is performing better than Diaz this year.
* Even ignoring this really bad year for Diaz, Vazquez out-performed him in the two previous years.
*Diaz has control for 3 more years. Vazquez has control for 4 more years.
This is not personal, just data. Perhaps you can explain your empirically based statistics that suggest they are of equal value?
I’m guessing it’s cost that Vazquez costs more but, while fun to mess around with, it seems very arbitrary especially when it comes to prospects.
If the Mets trade Diaz to the Red Sox it would be for Triston Casas & Dalbec or another prospect. Even with Diaz’s underperforming numbers, a 25 y/o closer with 3 years of control is still very valuable. The Mets will get at least one Top 100 prospect for him.
That is getting 20 cents (AT BEST) on the dollar. The Mets, god help us all, would at least recognize that is a bad trade. Given that LAD is interested in Diaz, BOS is by far the only suitor. He is controlled for another (3?) years, so they can hang onto him and try again next year.
No. They’re talking about only one of the two. And they’re likely right.
Here’s an idea: the guy was pretty much unhittable with 57 saves last year and makes $600,000 – , COACH HIM, don’t unload him so another team can fix him. Not to mention that leaves Cano as a major eye sore and embarrassment. Diaz isn’t getting traded before Callaway and his entire pitching coaches staff is removed. What happened to Callaway being an elite pitcher coach? Maybe he should go back to that and we get a PROVEN manager to run this team? Can’t blame the GM for trading for a cheap closer who saved 57 of 61 opportunities and you don’t unload him after a half season unless he’s a head case.
Kinda gotta wonder if Mets coaching is the problem.
I’ve wondered the same thing. Same with their medical staff. They always have injuries.
That is the going concern for the Mets…both with Diaz and Thor. Thor’s splits for his pitches are pretty stark…he’d do better to not throw his 4 seam fastball nearly as much. He gets more swinging strikes and better outcomes with a higher use of his curve, slider, and change than his 2 or 4 season FB.
As for Diaz, his issue was both mechanical and also how the Mets staff want their pitchers to pitch. They screwed with his pitch selection, which was one of many reasons he struggled.
I forgot, the other big issue with Thor’s numbers is Ramos. Thor did muuuuuuch better pitching to Nido than Ramos, same for deGrom. I forget if that impacted Diaz.
So Mets gave up two players that are higher ranked prospects and took on canos salary. Fire Brodie if this rumor becomes reality
Diaz is just a mechanical adjustment away. I would need to go back to video from last season, but he is constantly missing to pitching arm side, up and in. Get a real pitching coach to figure out why. Over striding? Elbow dropping? Shoulder flying open? Arm slot different than 2018? He misses as much as Matz, maybe worse.
I know the Mets are confusing right now but hey, they picked up the best pitcher on the market for significantly less than most of us thought. I had expected Stroman to cost a top 100 prospect ontop of the package they paid. Richardson is a legitemate high end prospect but at 18 and being a pitcher his risk right now is also enormous.
Based on the strength of his trade to get Stroman, I’m going to give BVW the benefit of the doubt. I don’t think Brodie can get back to same return for Diaz but Im curious to see what he does. This looks more like him reshuffling the deck than rebuilding because let’s face it. If Diaz wasnt getting hit so hard, the Mets wouldnt be nearly as badly off as they are now.
The Mets trying to fix their horrible mistake that was the cano trade. It goes to prove an agent can think he knows what hes doing but he should stick to being an agent.
It was not a mistake, no one saw Cano falling off a cliff this fast. The trade was solid, at the time because of Edwin Diaz who again, at that time, was the best closer in the AL. Both the performance of Cano & Diaz or lack thereof has made that trade seem far worse than it really was.
Brodie Van Wagenen will be a good GM. He has the aggressiveness & guts that the NY Mets have lacked since Omar Minaya.
What do you mean , no one could have seen the decline of a 37 year old 2B coming off a PED suspension who’s already been declining for 3 seasons??? Facepalm…
It’ll take at least 3-4 quality moves to neutralize that dumpster fire trade. Between taking on $100m for a team run like a small market team, the loss of Kelenic (stud player) and Dunn (depth) AND Swarzak and Bruce are doing better than waste of space Cano. They literally lost in every way possible in that trade, and it will only get worse as Kelenic gets closer and Cano gets older.
Might DD dangle Price or Porcello in addition to JD and Mookie?
It’s possible JD and Porcello will walk this year and Mookie after 2020
Not all but one or two of these pieces in trades…
The Sox will need to address future contracts including Bene, ERod, Devers , JBJ and Betts.
It’s been thrown out Mookie would be a nice fit for the Dodgers and the Cubs–we could get some of their good young talent.
Keep talking DD.
Who the heck takes Porcello though? I mean…he’s been rough this year: 5.55ERA, Ks down, HRs up, etc. Making $21m for the year. They would need to buy down almost his entire contract and STILL they’d have a problem moving him.
Everything you’ve said on here is ridiculous madmc. They’re not trading any of those guys. Porcello and Price because they can’t, and the other two because they’re in a pennant race.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Minnesota, with a pretty well stocked farm system and recent high picks in middle infield, step in with an offer featuring Royce Lewis for a Thor/Diaz package.
I’m with you. I feel like if the Twins offer Lewis, Kirriloff, Rooker & say like a Gordon they could definitely get both Syndergaard & Diaz. That would be a great trade for both teams. Twins would be dangerous the rest of this season.
Lol, a bit hefty. But compared to NYY and BOS, the Twins system is more appealing and the strengths match up pretty well with what Mets may need. MN has looked at Lewis as potential CF too. Nobody is looking for a fleecing – think the idea is to match up well and not burn a bridge for future dialogues. And it admittedly would be a nice get for Mets knowing the Yanks are seeing the “next Jeter” developing crosstown..
It’s not hefty at all. Think about it, the Mets could easily get two Top 100 prospects for Syndergaard alone. If this was the deal, you could break it down like this:
Syndergaard for Lewis & Rooker
&
Diaz for Kirriloff & Gordon.
So if you look at it like this, it’s more than fair for the Twins. Like I said, the Mets could get two Top 100 prospects for Syndergaard & one for Diaz by himself. So the Twins giving up just two is a no brainer. Gordon is a clear throw in with no spot on the MLB roster in Minnesota & Rooker has a chance to be a decent backup 1B & 4th OF. Solid trade all around. Don’t see this as an overpay.
If adding Kirriloff is too much then Brusdal Graterol would have to be added. Now, if Twins fans think that adding Graterol is too much then you have to add both Jordan Balazovic & Trevor Larnach. If not, trade can’t happen. Just facts. Syndergaard & Diaz could potentially lead them to a World Series. That doesn’t come cheap.
Well organized. That is the kind of deal I’d look at from the Mets’ perspective as a solid trade. The Mets get a number of solid pieces to rebuild…and pieces they can actually use, not spare parts like the Yankees and BOS are trying to push.
From MIN’s perspective, I think it’s a home run in regard to talent (Diaz is already on the upswing) and Syndergaard would beast in a pennant race. I’d be rooting hard for you guys in the playoffs too. MIN is one of a few stadiums I haven’t checked off my list…so I may even fly in to catch a game if Syn is pitching. Good luck!
That proposal passes the test at this trade simulator:
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
… giving Noah Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz $115.8 million in surplus and the returning quartet $122.7 million in surplus value.
But that’s a steep price for the Twins.
If we were talking top 100s rather than top 20s (prior to the recent draft) I wouldn’t call it a stretch. I don’t think MN would clear out quite that much from the farm. Lewis more of a target, Kirriloff stays – as mentioned before, corners are gettable. Not 5 tool MIs. Most realistic is a mixture of farm talents and a MLB experienced player or two for a better chance at being competitive next year. But yeah, think there is a match worth exploring.
You’re right. Syndergaard & Diaz for Lewis, Devin Smeltzer, Jordan Balazovic & Trevor Larnach. Perfect deal. Smeltzer could be either a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen for the Mets or be a rotation option in 2020 if they don’t resign Wheeler. Mets still get the star prospect they crave in Lewis but Minnesota not only gets a Co-Ace in Syndergaard but a bonafide closer for a playoff run while also holding onto Kirriloff & Graterol.
Slam dunk for both teams. BVM, call the Twins!!!
This is silly. You’ll be lucky to get one of Lewis or Kiriloff, and a couple of lottery tickets. I’d be mildly surprised if they even get one of those two.
Addendum, not saying you were that far off. I dont think MN would give up both Lewis and Kirriloff, would be one or the other. Could see Gordon and a young lottery pitching prospect or two – Rooker projects to be more of a DH type that Mets don’t need. Maybe current OF Jake Cave could be added for CF depth. They also have several multiposition guys up (Arraez, Astudillo). With Marwin Gonzalez there too one could be expendable and useful now.
Who the heck takes Porcello though? I mean…he’s been rough this year: 5.55ERA, Ks down, HRs up, etc. Making $21m for the year. They would need to buy down almost his entire contract and STILL they’d have a problem moving him.
As for MN….I’d love for the Mets to take a run at the MN prospects and add in Astudillo bc I love his contact….no idea about his glove though. Ramos is rough behind the plate, but I’d love if the Mets could find a cost-controlled catcher who can call a decent game.
I cannot imagine Diaz for Dalbec. I’ve come around on Dalbec, and think he could be a pretty decent high-power/high-K/good glove 3B for the NYMs. But BVW gets roasted if he does that.
From the RS side, while Diaz is statistically worse in every category, he is still statistically better than most of the RPs out there. The way I see it, he has an OPSa of .813, but BABIPa of .398. If we regressed the .398 to an expected .300, then the expected OPSa would become .617, virtually identical to his career OPSa of .614.
I’d go so far as to put Dalbec + Groome out there. Groome could come back to haunt us, but Dalbec has no opening at 3rd.
The trade simulator gives Edwin Diaz $47.3 million in surplus value while Bobby Dalbec and Jason Groome have a combined $17 million in surplus value:
baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
The Trade simulator is soft on the prospect side.
I’m having an issue figuring out how they derive their values. According to your site, JDM has an adjusted field value of $99.3M over 3.5 years. Does that mean someone will pay him $28.4M per year for the next 3 years? I doubt it.
I do not see the Mets taking on 1-2 corner bats for Diaz…who they acquired for one a 5-tool soon to be Top 10 player (at the time he was Top 25) and Dunn, who is a good back of the rotation or upside RP arm. Why the heck would Brodie take a middling corner bat who hasn’t produced in the minors?
It doesn’t matter how much they gave up for him. With one less control, and a bad season, he is clearly worth less than what he had been. IMO, Dalbec isn’t nearly enough, but you aren’t getting your money back either.
I would be surprised if the Red Sox landed Diaz but with all the prospect hugging going on in baseball especially the top 100 types you never know maybe DD sneaks in there and pulls it off. If I am Brodie I wouldn’t even consider moving Diaz after what he gave up to acquire him. You never know though DD seems to be willing to move top 100 types and most other teams don’t.
Perhaps Diaz, Conforto, Fraser for JBJ, Feltman and Travis .,
Im a Yankee fan but Im from Puerto Rico, Cora would bring the best version of Diaz its that happen
Diaz on a winning team could be scary. Dude is filthy when he is on. The mets pitching coaches and org are definitely hindering him. He’ll be lights out if he moves.
Since 2003 20% minor leaguers that have been dealt at the tradeline have played 2 years in MLB and had positive WAR. I thought that was a fascinating stat; I know we all get gooeey over our prospects but Stroman is a beast and going from al east to nl east he will dominate; now i hope we resign him.
Years ago if a trade was made it was for Maj. League talent from both teams. Now there are just so many Minor League Teams and those Teams are scouting the players at their levels with scouting reports for trades, etc. for the Major League Team.
Diaz would be a definite plus for Boston ASAP.
Just get this done without getting reamed.
It’s a no brainer.