The trade market should pick up steam in earnest over the next week to 10 days, now that the All-Star break is behind us. Teams will play in pivotal series against divisional foes — some of which will dictate whether fringe contenders add pieces or wave a metaphorical white flag and begrudgingly sell off some veteran assets in exchange for youthful talent. Many of the names on the market are well known by now, as are others who could become available should their currently borderline teams ultimately sell. The Mariners are already known sellers, but there’s been little focus on lefty Roenis Elias, who has is in the midst of a second consecutive quality season.
None of what’s written here will be a means of suggesting that Elias is a premium trade chip, but he’s certainly a more appealing trade piece than one would think given the lack of attention he’s drawn. The Cuban-born southpaw will turn 31 the day after the deadline, so he’s not the type of young, controllable asset after which so many clubs pine. However, he is controllable for another two seasons, and over the past two years, Elias has been a perfectly serviceable relief option for Seattle skipper Scott Servais.
In his past 91 2/3 innings, Elias has turned in a 3.24 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9 and a 34.7 percent ground-ball rate. Elias throws hard for a lefty, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball dating back to last season. He’s had some curious struggles against lefties in 2019 (some, but not all of which can be attributed to a .364 BABIP), but Elias has also held right-handed hitters to an awful .206/.272/.339 batting line through 257 plate appearances since the 2018 season opened.
If spin rate is your cup of tea, then Elias is all the more appealing. His fastball spin is in the 91st percentile among big league hurlers, per Statcast, while his curveball falls into a less-impressive but still-solid 76th percentile. The lefty has induced swinging strikes at a 10.6 percent clip over the past two seasons, including an 11.9 percent rate in 2019 that has been accompanied by an uptick in strikeout rate (from 6.0 K/9 in ’18 to 9.3 in ’19). Elias has even emerged as a late-inning option for Servais, locking down 11 saves. That said, he’s also no stranger to multi-inning relief outings.
The Nationals, Twins, Rays, Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox (although Boston has already acquired Elias from the Mariners once, only to trade him back) are among the teams in the market for a bullpen arm or two. For a team with payroll concerns, Elias’ $910K salary is small enough that he can be squeezed into virtually any budget. It’s also affordable enough that he can be penciled onto a 2020 roster without forecasting too steep a raise in arbitration.
Elias isn’t an elite reliever, but he’s intriguing as a solid, perhaps too-seldom-discussed arm on a team that has been openly broadcasting its willingness to sell veteran assets since the beginning of the offseason. His eminently affordable salary makes him a fit for any team’s budget, and given the large number of clubs eyeing bullpen help, there should be a market for his services. He might not be any team’s “Plan A,” but Elias should nonetheless have a decent chance of changing hands over the next three weeks.
Dodgers should be in the market for at least 2 quality pen arms. Chargrois, Garcia, Alexander, Floro and the enigmatic Baez won’t help win them the WS.
This screams rays
Do they really need another multi inning reliever though? I haven’t watched them enough to know, so that’s a serious question. I just thought they were already loaded there, and Jose De Leon is due back soon and would fit into that role, and Glasnow is a ? but they seem like someone who would rely on internal reinforcements for pitching and try and boost their offense?
They have said they will be in on everyone but they are going to get at least 1 possibly 2 relievers and possibly a bat depending on Matt Duffy and possibly another starter depending on if Glasnow will be back this year or not. But they said it’s gonna be more low key relievers rather than a bidding war for top guys. Like 2016 with cishek and dan Jennings and romo. This is that low key solid reliever
his ability to swing should make him valuable. MIN, MIL, CLE, TEX and PHI should be all over him.
Pirates should love Elias. He’s good, he’s cheap, and they could use not only any good bullpen piece but specifically another lefty setup guy. They have Vazquez and Liriano, both of whom are doing quite well, but Vazquez is the closer and Liriano might be a trade chip himself. One mild concern I have about Elias is that in reading about him he strikes me as being very similar to Liriano, so I’m not sure if having both in the same bullpen might cause issues.
Just love that the Sox never gave this guy a real look.
They gave him plenty of “real looks”. He always looked real bad.
If I were an MLB GM, I’d constantly make bad trade offers to Jerry DiPoto, hoping to catch him at a moment of boredom.
Bring in a third team and you increase your odds
Wonder what Pittsburgh would need to give up for him and Leake?
How good or bad has Leake been? Last I heard, that was an underwater contract.
Leake has been peak Mike Leake, although he got pummeled by the uber inspired Angels last night. He had a very good June and consistently gives you 7 IP with 3-4 R. Innings eater who is solid. Still some major clams left on his contract but Seattle has proven willing to eat money on previous deals.
He is more likely to be traded than many of the premium trade chips talked about in the press. I just don’t see some of the contenders ponying up the prospects that some expect for these starters and relievers. Those that are free agents after the season will probably move but not bring back near what fans expect nor what they may be worth.
This screams David Stearns… multiple inning reliever and cheap.
Mariners should hold on Elias and sign him to a mid range extension, unless of course his trade value explodes. He has had nothing but success in Seattle, even as a starter in his young career. If they are looking to compete starting 2nd half of 2020 they will need bullpen pieces. A lefty that gets righties out is a good place to start.
The money that Elias makes seems what the Red Sox are looking for but are they willing to give him another chance in Boston.
What team will Walk with Elias?
Elias didn’t do that well in Boston, and really seems to be comfortable in Seattle. I hope they keep him.