The Mariners, as one would expect with GM Jerry Dipoto at the helm, continue to be active in trade discussions and are receiving the most interest in outfielder Domingo Santana and lefty Roenis Elias, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required). Interest in Santana is strong enough that Seattle “will at least consider trading him,” Rosenthal writes.
Santana, 27 in early August, is in his first season with the Mariners after coming over from the Brewers in an offseason swap that sent Ben Gamel to Milwaukee. The slugger has been every bit as productive as Seattle could have reasonably hoped upon acquiring him, hitting at a .280/.346/.489 pace with 19 home runs, 19 doubles, a triple and six steals. Santana, though, has also fanned at a 29.5 percent clip and racked up more total strikeouts (122) than any player in Major League Baseball.
More concerning than Santana’s strikeouts, however, is his glovework in the outfield. Santana’s -14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and -12 Outs Above Average are the worst marks of any outfielder in baseball. Only Colorado’s Ian Desmond (-16) has fared worse than Santana (-13) in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved. It’s not fully clear what has prompted the downturn in Santana’s defensive ratings. A year ago in Milwaukee, he drew above-average marks from all three of those metrics. And while those positive ratings look to be an outlier relative to the rest of his career, Santana has also never struggled anywhere close to this extent in seasons past.
Surely, some teams — particularly those in the NL — will be wary of Santana’s defense. But a club that could give Santana some time at designated hitter (or, speculatively, first base) and/or one that believes it has a solution to this season’s pronounced decline could hardly help but be intrigued by his bat. Santana has been an above-average hitter in every season he’s received regular playing time, and he’s controlled through the 2021 season at an affordable rate. This year’s home run and RBI totals will undoubtedly boost his salary in arbitration, but he’s earning just $1.95MM in 2019, so his forthcoming raise won’t make his salary burdensome. Santana has been good against right-handed pitching (.277/.338/.449) while obliterating lefties (.287/.374/.621), so he’d be of particular interest to a team that has been overmatched by opposing southpaws (e.g. Indians, Rockies).
As for Elias, MLBTR explored the left-hander’s likely trade candidacy at greater length last week, noting that while he’s not an elite reliever, he’s a solid arm whose modest $910K salary and remaining club control (also through 2021) should generate plenty of interest. Elias can miss bats, throws rather hard for a lefty and gets good spin on both his heater and curveball, all of which makes him an appealing asset. With so many teams around the league eyeing bullpen help and Dipoto never afraid to move a piece as he rebuilds the Seattle roster and farm system, it’d be more surprising to see the Mariners retain Elias than it would be to see him traded.
Domingo Santana would be a good fit for the Cubs, especially since they’re considering another corner OF with power
His defense would also give Schwarber a confidence boost in the field.
The Cubs need to let Swartz go. Fowler back to the Cubs this season may just be the jump start the Cubs need. The Cardinals are soon to be on the outside looking in because of the lack of attempts to obtain anything but low hanging fruit players that no one else wants. Plus, Astrogate looms over the Cardinals John Mozeliak. Fowler would love to be back with the Cubs. The Cubs need him this year. I’m quite sure the Cardinals would eat his salary, even just to get a minimal prospect. Fowler has had a pretty good season. Back on his World Series stomping grounds, the Cubs could possibly see another World Series ring sooner than later.
Cardinals aren’t going to eat Fowler’s contract and send him to the division rival.
You really think the Cardinals are going to trade Fowler back to the Cubs for a minimal prospect while also eaiting a chunk of the contract? Also, how is Mozeliak still impacted by the Astros’ scandal? Those penalties are in the past.
Elias would be a good fit for the Cubs too
I hope the Cubs are one of the teams that are checking in on both of them
The Cubs wouldn’t even have to send top prospects and DiPoto would send buckets of cash. DiPoto is just interested in young controllable kids. He’s not so worried about getting talent in return. Good fit for the Cubs.
That was the dumbest thing I’ve read so far today. Well done.
“Dipoto would send buckets of cash”?! Seriously?!
Santana is owed only $900k for the remainder of 2019, and Elias is only owed approx $400k.
Santana is on pace for 35 HRs this year and maintaining a 285 BA from both sides of the plate. Try getting this type or production for only $900k via trade or FA…ain’t gonna happen without giving up some pretty decent prospects.
I think the $$$ screams for a TB trade. TB wanted EE but couldn’t afford even half of EE salary. TB also needs a lefty BP guy from what I’ve read. And TB is loaded with plenty/surplus of amazing prospects in their Farm. TB can offer way more better prospects than the Cubs.
PLUS, whoever gets both these guys are getting 2.5 years of club control too, at reasonable arb prices next year!
Let the bidding begin! lol
Little tiny buckets……
…….Agreed,Planet Stupider!
cubs are cash strapped,,,
That’s what I’ve been thinking lately on where Elias would make a good fit and the Cubs always come to mind.
Indians would certainly benefit from Santana… can’t imagine given his salary and cost that he isn’t on their shopping list.
I’d imagine his defensive struggles stem more from moving from Milwaukee (semi bandbox) to Seattle (cavernous). Just seems like he has more ground to cover. Of course I could be wrong. At any rate he’s never been this bad defensively so it may simply be an aberration.
When I see situations like this I think about Bryce Harper last year compared to this year. He was having issues with his knee last year and posted a -16.7 UZR150/-26 DRS. This year he’s healthy and has posted a +13.7 UZR150 and +2 DRS. Maybe there’s an injury that we don’t know about? Either way he still has additional years of control and is an above average offensive player so he would still be worth the investment.
Santana’s poor defense is a direct result of being shifted from his usual RF position over to LF- initially he was having trouble reading the ball off the bat and struggled with catches where he had to bring his glove (past his face) to his right. He looks like a completely new defender now that we’ve switched him back to RF. If you could look at his def ratings since his move to RF you’d see a vast improvement.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10348&posi…
No, he’s been equally as poor per DRS and UZR in RF. And this isn’t the first time he’s graded out that badly. The outlier was last season when he was a part time player and posted positive defensive marks. He’s a below average outfielder.
T-Mobile Park is not only not cavernous, it is *smaller* than Miller Park. Respective dimensions (MP/ TMB):
LF line: 344/ 331
LCF: 371/ 378
CF: 400/ 401
RCF: 374/ 381
RF line: 345/ 326
Conceptually, the greater distances down the lines in MP will — barring funky dimensions that TMP doesn’t have — increase a COF must cover in MP vs. the bigger-but-not-as-much-bigger gaps in TMP
Dimensions for both stadiums:
tickpick.com/miller-park-seating-chart/
tickpick.com/t-mobile-park-seating-chart/
Improving from -24 UZR/150 to -17 over <500 innings is far from "vast". It's marginal — caveats of small sample size aside (as it is true for both and both numbers aren't far off his career norms… in spite of what PR the color announcers relay).
Santana needs to go to another AL team where he can spend the majority of the time at DH. The same is true with Melky Cabrera. Not sure who Cleveland has been using as their DH, but I think that would be a good fit for either player.
I agree, I think Santana and Elias for a package centered around Hankins and Jones makes sense for both teams.
No way the Indians ever do that trade. Elias isn’t a need for the Indians and while Santana would be a great addition to their offense Jones is a top 100 prospect that should be ready next year and wouldn’t be moved unless it was for a much bigger addition.
Jones is probably going to shift over to 1B in the upper-minors. He hasn’t been consistent enough at the hot corner. He’s also a LHH and Seattle probably needs to focus on RHH’s.
Easy to see Santana fitting in with Cleveland, but it’s hard to know what the return might be. I would guess an arm.
Actually, I agree with that assessment. But I still stick with any deal made with the Tribe needs to include Hankins.
This has a Rays package deal written all over it
I had felt the same for quite a while. But now I wonder if Pittsburgh might be a better fit.
The Pirates are 3.5 games back of a wild card. Dickerson’s power has evaporated and he will be a free agent next season. Marte may have his option declined as he’s due to make 11.5 million if he sticks around.
Pittsburgh has a suitable third baseman in Colin Moran, who is on fire at the moment. They happen to have an excellent 3B prospect in Ke’Bryan Hayes.
So, I wonder if a mega-deal between the two clubs might make sense. Dickerson and Hayes to Seattle for Mallex Smith, Domingo Santana, and Roenis Elias.
Seattle would be getting a top 3B prospect; Pittsburgh would be getting good, affordable replacements for Dickerson and Marte, and they would be saving about 4 million this season alone.
Maybe a lower-level arm would need to go to Pittsburgh as well, but it’s not hard for me to see how something creative could materialize here.
Reynolds would move back to LF in this hypothetical and Smith would probably get optioned and serve as a reserve for 2019.
The only weakness in the Seattle farm was SP & 3B. But the 2019 draft Seattle loaded up big time on SP’s, and they ended up using their #5 for 3B Sheldon. Not sure where Sheldon even ranks at this point.
I had Pitts 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes pegged as a top 3B blocked prospect for Pitts. I just think Mallex Smith, Domingo, and Elias is a LOT to send. There are better 3B top prospects that could be avail.
I didn’t think Domingo and Elias alone would land one of the top 5 3B prospects in MLB….
But Santana & Elias to TB for a top 50 SP + would be more like it I think. TB wanted EE as their DH but could even afford half his salary of $8M this year. Santana for $900k and 2.5 club control is more like TB budget to me. And Elias also has 2.5 yrs of club control. So I’m thinking Seattle could get at least 1 top 50 SP prospect + one or two mid-level prospects.
I made a mistake when I said better 3B Prospects than Hayes are avail. Hayes is actually #2 overall at 3B.
But these are the other 3B prospects I had pegged as being possibly avail and currently blocked:
St Louis 3B Nolan Gorman
Phillies 3B Alec Bohm
Cincy 3B India
Cleveland 3B Nolan Jones
Any trading with TB will result in top SPs though
There’s a number of ways to look at it, but I think Mallex doesn’t have enough of a history to drive up his value and Elias is a mid-innings reliever who will be arbitration eligible (as is Santana) next season. So, I’m considering salaries both now and in the future as well as value by WAR.
Hayes is a 60 grade prospect at Fangraphs, though I wonder if that’s a bit generous. If you looked at the numbers collectively this season, my idea is laughable. Pittsburgh would want/need more.
But I think everyone knows Smith is back on track both offensively and defensively (he needed a new glove!!!), and Santana is fine in RF. Throw in Elias, and If they all combine for somewhere around 4 WAR, and you factor in the savings from Dickerson, I think the value exchanged is relatively close.
I don’t think that would be an overpay at all. Maybe Pittsburgh would even need another player, but Seattle has got to focus on nabbing elite infield prospects since they lack depth.
Tampa should be interested in Santana as well and it wouldn’t surprise me if they were interested in Elias, Adams, and Tui. I would certainly listen to ideas if Brujan’s name came up, but it would probably take more than Santana and Elias to get him and I wonder if an offseason deal for Brujan might be more likely.
That said, it’s still easy to see one of Seattle’s relievers heading to Tampa at the deadline and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see something happen with Santana. I would simply prefer an elite 3B prospect and I can see the matchup a little better with Pittsburgh.
Would be cool to see Seattle net both Hayes and Brujan, somehow. Their future lineup would be well set.
Roenis Elias has a 4.54 FIP and Domingo Santana has been the worst defensive outfielder in baseball this year. I don’t know why you think that package is going to net you the #2 3B prospect in baseball. There’s a better chance you’d get Colin Moran if they were actually interested in doing something like that.
You gave up little to nothing for Santana i don’t see how you are going to flip him into Kebryan Hayes. The Pirates don’t need 2 outfielders going back. They have a glut of them as it is. The Pirates made on stupid deal last year so maybe they’ll be dumb enough to do it again. But they shouldn’t.
Did you bother reading the comment all the way through (any of them)? Do you understand that money is a key factor, as it always is with Pittsburgh, and that Dickerson–who is still owed over 4 million this year and offers zero power–is gone after 2019? Do you not realize that Marte’s option next season is for 11.5 million, which Pittsburgh may very well decline, or exercise it and move him?
Have you read any of the comments throughout this thread that point out the enormous differences in Santana’s defense in RF compared to LF? Where is this “glut” of outfielders Pittsburgh has that you’re talking about? Think Cabrera is a better fielder than Santana, or likely to be back next season? Think Swaggerty is going to be ready soon (he’s currently in A+)?
And like I said, another prospect might be needed. Everything adds up, you just chose to cherry-pick what you read and make it sound it’s an idea of swapping Santana and Elias for Hayes. Obviously that wouldn’t fly. But taking on Dickerson’s remaining contract and giving them a legitimate replacement for both CF, RF, a solid ‘pen piece, and maybe someone interesting like Ljay Newsome?
That’s not a stretch.
4 million bucks on Dickerson’s deal isnt all that significant. Santana’s arb salary is going to be 6-7 million bucks next year and further shooting up from there. If you want to talk about money being an issue in Pittsburgh they wouldn’t be able to afford Santana after one year. They have Polanco, Marte, and Reynolds as OF options for next season. That’s why I was saying that they don’t absolutely need another. I’m not sold on Colin Moran being a full time 3B either. Poor defender and they don’t let him hit against left handers. You’re assuming he makes Hayes expendable and I disagree w that premise.
And for the love of God could a Mariners fan open a Fangraphs page or even a BBref page and explain to me why Domingo Santana has still drawn terrible defensive grades in RF? That’s just blatantly ignoring the numbers.
You all keep harping on his vastly improved RF defense but he’s out in RF grading out like 2018 Nick Castellanos. What’s the excuse for that? Maybe you got used to seeing abominable LF defense and now extremely poor RF defense looks decent.
You seem to be forgetting that Pittsburgh is still in the playoff hunt. Why do you think this is even a discussion? Moran doesn’t make Hayes expendable. But the opportunity to contend this season and address some future needs while saving money, might.
4 million isn’t chump change, Santana isn’t going to make 6-7 in arbitration (2nd year eligibility), and again, Marte isn’t going to be cheap next season (for Pittsburgh. Polanco’s salary shoots up to 8.6 million next season and jumps to 11.6 in 2021), he’s coming off injury and a poor early 2019 showing, and can’t hit LHP. Think he’s an ideal piece for them to move forward with?
Reynolds is a solid corner outfielder. But there absolutely is an argument that they could/should look elsewhere for CF and RF both now and for the future. I’m suggesting Seattle could be a fit and I’ve detailed the how’s and why’s. I’m not suggesting this is a deal that is going to happen.
And talk about opening a fangraphs page, have you done that and actually read what you found–both this season and career? Santana isn’t the train wreck in RF that he was in LF. He had a two-error (on the same play) night in RF since the switch, but he’s adjusting and looking more and more comfortable like he did in Milwaukee. Nobody’s saying he’s a great defender, but he’s certainly passable and an asset. His value is higher now than it was in the offseason.
Not being sold on Moran is fair and it may well be that Pittsburgh isn’t either. They may have no interest in moving Hayes. But it’s worth noting that Hayes lacks the power traditionally sought from 3B and he should net them a solid return if he were made available. I think Seattle has the chips if they’re willing to eat salary.
Heck, maybe including Polanco with Dickerson would even make sense. That would save Pittsburgh about 8 million this season (with Dickerson’s remaining salary included), and about 23 million between 2020-2021, minus whatever they pay Santana and Smith in this deal.
Again, the point is that Pittsburgh could improve now and in the future at a lower cost.
He has been terrible in both RF and LF. Looks more comfortable in RF but has still been below average there.
@drfelix
Usually, teams don’t trade their top prospects unless they have an opportunity to seriously contend, and though all of those teams are arguably in the hunt, Jones isn’t a very good defender and is bats left, as does Gorman. Seattle really needs to focus on RHH’s. India would be interesting, but I don’t know if Seattle has what Cincinnati needs.
I still think Tampa is more likely to deal an infielder. It’s odd that money isn’t really an issue for them this year, but that also makes a trade a little harder to consummate. Seattle would have to get even more creative, or possibly cough up prospect talent to get anyone decent.
You don’t need an elite defender in RF if the bat’s there.
Well, Santana will absolute make 6 million in arbitration. His raises are based off his current 2 million dollar salary. CJ Cron was non tendered because he was set to make that much. Santana in all likelihood will end up w more HRS and RBIS than him and that pays in arb.
And again, No you have not checked the Fangraphs page because Santana is historically a poor defender in Milwaukee’s tiny ballpark. Last season he suddenly ticked up when he was a a part time player. He’s making let’s call it 6 million next season. That’s the only year he’s going to be affordable. It’ll be at least 10 the year after and they certainly won’t want him in year 3 for 15.
If Pittsburgh really wants an outfielder there’s better fits than giving up Hayes and Dickerson’s cash for a package centered around Domingo. You’re better off looking at a much cheaper prospect cost rental.
Pitt really places a value on cost controlled guys anyway. I think it’s far more likely we’re having a conversation about when they trade Josh bell because he’s too expensive than them acquiring a slugger heading for more dollars in arb.
But, yeah I mean if Seattle would take Polanco’s contract we might have a different story here. 4 million bucks shouldn’t move the needle. 21 million may for Pittsburgh. Though, like I said you still have the problem of Santana’s rising arb salaries.
And also as a Mariners you should know more than anyone that 4 million bucks saved has limited value. I mean Christ you ate 18 on Bruce’s salary to get nothing back.
First, I’ll take the bet on a 6-7 million arb number. That would be more than 3x what he makes now. If he explodes for 4 fWAR, sure. But he’s on pace for 2.
Second, you shouldn’t assume I haven’t done my homework on Santana. I have, and you should understand that 1) defensive stats aren’t worth their weight in gold, and 2) there’s sample size and history to consider, along with the fact that he wouldn’t be acquired for elite defense, it would be for the bat.
Josh Bell is an extension candidate if I ever saw one. Moving salary makes that easier to happen. The biggest question right now, in my opinion, is what Pittsburgh intends to do this season. Are they going to push in the chips, or fold?
Either way, how does Dickerson fit? Not to mention, Cabrera is a worse fielder than Santana (by fangraphs’ standards, or any other you choose).
Regarding Bruce, they aren’t comparable. You’re talking about a guy with an injury history that wasn’t getting on base. Power was the only thing they had in common and he most certainly wasn’t worth his salary.
Eating Polanco’s deal absolutely would be worth talking about if that’s what it took.
What does it matter what Seattle traded to get Santana? That’s not how economics (or anything) works.
Saying the M’s ate 18 mil on Bruce and got nothing back and therefore that means the M’s don’t value 18 mil would be indicative of someone who doesn’t understand sunk costs and surplus value.
Bruce is worth very little, but the M’s were paying him 18 mil as part of the now lauded trade that got rid of Cano and Diaz and got back Kelenic and Dunn. To be able to get rid of Bruce, get a small amount of savings, and get a fringe prospect back is a different situation than saying they’d take on Polanco’s contract because they don’t care about cash. In fact it’s an absurd contention and an uneducated one.
That’s not at all what I said there, Gavin. Bruce was slashing 11% above league average at the time of the trade. To save only 3 million bucks and not get a decent prospect back was unbelievable quite frankly. But not really my point. That was a side note. I’m aware of the deal they made for Bruce but that also has nothing to do with his value. That deal to dump him was a head scratcher to begin with considering how little cash was shed for no return.
And please spare me your Econ lesson, Gav. You clearly don’t understand what I was saying at all. I was talking about taking on Polanco’s deal in order to get Ke’Bryan Hayes. I said 4 million bucks was not enough dead cash to pair w Santana and other filler to give up a consensus top 50 prospect for. Has nothing to do with Jay Bruce.
Stevil, you haven’t done your homework on arbitration if you think WAR is even in the equation. Has absolutely nothing to do with how guys get paid in arbitration. They get paid off of “classic” numbers like hrs, runs, RBIs, BA.
The Brewers attempted to deal Santana before the 2018 season (After a strong year) and they were unable to find a partner to pay anywhere near their ask. Poor defending corner OF’s do not bring back top talent. That’s my point, Gav.
The development time for baseball far too well-documented and position changes to view the most-recent draft as an actual patch to current MLB holes. It takes most fast-moving college kids 2-3 years and HS kids 5-7 years before cracking MLB rosters.
I was thinking Tampa also. They need a right handed power hitter. They were in the mix for Encarnacion. Tampa bullpen has been overworked.
Who will walk with Elias?
Maybe the twins will serenade him with a guitar solo.
Santana, for whatever reason, was not able to make a shift to left field. Most of the knocks on his defense stem from his time in left at the start of the season. Since the switch into right field his defense has become almost passable.
You guys know all of this could be fact checked by going to Fangraphs? He’s rated just as poorly in RF.
Not really. Defensive stats are extremely misleading with small sample sizes. This is definitely a situation where scouting is superior to stats.
Cubs don’t need a horrible defender
dodgers should check in on elias…. perfect for them.
It’s perfectly clear that Santana’s poor defensive showing is primarily in left field. Though he isn’t a great right fielder, he’s clearly more comfortable there and the statistics reflect as much.
He has looked much better in RF
Did you close your eyes and not look at them?
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10348&posi…
-6 DRS in 311 innings in RF.
-7 DRS in 500 innings in LF
This is just factually not true. Even if you wanted to go by fielding percentage he rates as a pretty garbage defender at both. Though if you went by fielding % he would be astronomically bad in left field.
Dang you right. Sorry for upsetting you
Gotta look at more than DRS and consider the fact that he has a passable history in RF and the bat is far more important.
If you haven’t watched him in RF this year, and I suspect you haven’t, you should do so. Most fans agree that he’s perfectly passable.
jbigz
Even the people at Fangraphs admit that defensive stats are unreliable and EXTREMELY unreliable in short sample sizes.
Now… do you think they would consider 36 games a stable sample size or a small sample size? Let us know.
I’m well aware of the sample size bias. They also say in that article it’s preferable to the eye test if I remember correctly. Don’t get so worked up though, Gav. Santana has a long career of being a below average defensive outfielder. Not bad to this level, but it’s mostly been bad.
If he’s truly that abysmal it’ll hurt his value. If he’s more of what he was in Milwaukee then it’s only bad. I don’t think you can jump the gun and say that everything is all peachy either. Especially when everything paints the picture of him being bad out there this year.
Rays make some sense. Santana playing some Lf and Dh he would get plenty of at bats.
M’s tried to shift Santana to LF- he was horrible. He’s by no means an elite defender in RF but he’s far more comfortable there, the difference is night and day. It would be a huge mistake putting him back in LF
Poor defense and tons of strikeouts. Perfect to replace Bruce for the Phillies.
DiPoto making a deal? I’m SHOCKED!
I’d agree the Rays make a lot of sense here. Another angle is that they’ll be stuck paying Pham somewhere in the 8-10M range next year, which they probably (understandably) find distasteful. With no RH power anywhere in the system. Santana fits for 2019 and 2020. And he’ll be closer to the 4-6M range.
I would think Santana and Elias for a couple of guys in the #11-#20 range of the Rays system (remembering that their #11-#20 guys are top 10 in most) would work for both teams. Maybe add in a lottery ticket type.
I agree Santana probably won’t net a top 100 prospect since there are a couple alternatives to him on the market (Pence, Puig. But getting a couple fringe guys in the rays system would be nice
Nico Hoerner OR Adbert Alzolay as the return!
Santana and Elias are both cheap and having solid seasons. Not to mention, both are relatively young.
Santana is easily the best value outfielder on the market in terms of performance and cost.
For both to the Cubs. Not just one.
His defense is likely suffering because he was s shifting back and forth between LF and RF. Never did that before.
Kikuchi to the Yankees for Garcia, Frazier and Andujar. Brilliant for both sides! I should be a GM.
Lol I wish.
Arguably the worst offseason trade… Brewers gave away Domingo and their lineup could now use his services mightily. Pirates are a good fit. Or the Rays. Any team starved for power. Elias gets moved. In the Diekman quality, every contender needs another left handed relief option.
Are you joking? Santana was a walking error in right and a strike out machine. Brewers got the utility outfielder they needed. Santana was never going to start over Braun or Yelich and Gamel provides much more value.
Rockies OF, Desmond, Blackmon, Dahl and Tapia are 4 of the worst 8 defensive outfielders per DRS. There are like 60 qualified outfielders and they are near the bottom.
Just thought it was interesting.
Santana is having a productive season similar to 2017. The only things that concern me about him are his high strikeouts and his horrible defense. I think the Ms should wait til the off-season to possibly find a taker for him. Tampa Bay makes sense or even Houston. I think Santana can be a 30+ hr 100+ rbi guy if only he works on his plate discipline and he’s still young enough to stay as a building block for the Ms.