Tigers lefty Matthew Boyd has been among the most chatted-about players in baseball in recent months. But with the deadline approaching, it seems the likelihood of a deal is waning.
It’s not that the 28-year-old’s ERA is on the rise — though it has been. He’s still sitting under four earned per nine for the year, with highly promising peripherals (in particular: 12.1 K/9 vs. 2.0 BB/9) that suggest he’s in the midst of a real breakout.
The issue seems to be one of valuation, with the Tigers declining to slash a lofty asking price. Contenders, perhaps still hoping to score a deal from Detroit or another sell-side outfit, are still experiencing sticker shock.
At the moment, Boyd seems “likely to stay put” in Detroit Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. It appears that the Tigers have yet to receive an “enticing offer,” or at least one enticing enough to force the Tigers’ hand on a pitcher who comes with three future seasons of arbitration control. Put differently, the Tigers “seem resolved” not to move Boyd, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link).
It seems clear that the Detroit club will not be parting with Boyd if it doesn’t get an offer that satisfies a certain, fairly lofty threshold. But presumably the club would reconsider its stance if a contender comes calling with more appealing prospect chips.
Rivals are evidently not giving up on Boyd entirely. The Astros have “continued interest” in the southpaw, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter), though there’s no indication that the Houston org will stretch its offer to include top prospect Kyle Tucker — the player the Tigers have evidently tried to achieve in initial talks.
Michael Fulmer round 2?
Totally different pitcher/skill set than Fuller but ok
His point was the tigers would miss the opportunity to trade him while his value is the highest. i dont thknk he was compairing the skills of the players
2016; 4.53, 2017; 5.28, 2018; 4.23! I think the only people that have forgotten these seasons are the Detroit Tigers. As a Yankees fan would be happy to get him based on what he’s doing right now but I would be so worried what if he goes back to his previous performances next season. The crap smoking demands of the Tigers would scare me if my team gave up that much he is not worth what the Tigers want and I think in the future if he is dealt with him the deal with him whether he is good or bad will regret what they had to give up.
You got that as well
you also gotta realize the Tigers are big deep in a rebuild with really no hitting prospects, hence why they’re trying to hard
Boyd’s value is NOT at it’s highest, not even close.
It’s why it’s referred to as a “breakout”. Metrics like Boyd’s are no fluke; it’s not as if he just been incredibly lucky to throw strikes AND get plenty of K’s in the process.
I have no idea what the ask is but his success seems to be centered around him using his slider more and using the curve ball and change up more as show pitches.. He’s more finesse than power. He does two things well. Limits hits per 9 and strikes out more than innings pitched. He still allows too many homers (1.8/9 IP which is troublesome considering how Comerica (if that’s what it’s still called) is usually known for suppressing homers.
What kind of prospects are Detroit looking for in terms of pitching or position players?
If you are scared, then don’t bother trying. Cashman will have to go picking from the discount bin. Best get shopping, Vargas and Cashner are already taken.
You have no idea so you can’t say that. He can very easily regress. He’s changed by using his slider more often. What if the league adapts? Most sliders are deceptive by nature. What if they lay off of it? How well would he adapt to opponents then? I’m not saying he CAN’T get better but there’s no way you can say this isn’t him at his best.
did you look up the first few years of Max Scherzer? Glad the Tigers didn’t wait until he was “proven” to trade for him. (And now they have Jackson back in their minor league system to boot).
He’d move from 1st to 2nd best Yankees starter.
Exactly. Same comments would apply to Max in 2012. Similar adjustment to Boyd’s.
In fairness it is on par with the crap smoking Yank fans that think they can get anyone they want without giving up anything.
You can’t begin to compare the two. Max was a very high regarded 1st round pick with pure power stuff. Boyd was a 6th round finesse guy, Max had levels of success much faster than Boyd. Boyd is in his 4th season and may, for the first time, end the season with an ERA under 4 (and yes I know ERA isn’t king but it shows what the results were). Max in his first two years in the majors with the Dbacks had peripherals that stood out. 95+ fastball. More strikeouts than IP. Fewer hits allowed than IP. His performance was starting to match his his pedigree..
But at the end of the day, Max and another prospect (Daniel Schlereth) were traded, in a 3 team trade, and received Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy who was a pretty well regarded prospect who needed a change of scenery before blossoming with the Dbacks.
So using Max as an example., he was thought to have a much higher ceiling than Boyd and yet his return wasn’t exactly exciting.
But that being said, I do believe that a player CAN get better. I think that’s common sense. But if I’m a team looking at Boyd I’m not looking at a prospect in the minors who has a high ceiling. I’m looking at a pitcher who’s thrown 500 IP and having a good season. Maybe he will be better than a #3 but I’m not paying the prospect price of a #1 or even a good #2.
Looking at stats is nice but doesn’t tell the story. Both Max & Boyd have been frustratingly inconsistent during the initial years of their career. The Dbacks traded him because they presumably believed he could not get consistent. Then suddenly in May of 2012 something clicks & he becomes the Max people know today. Through hard work he developed that consistency that was missing. Boyd’s done the same. He’s not at Max’s level but it is reasonable to assume he will continue to perform as he has this year.
Obviously the “trade value” is not there, on both sides. I would be more than happy keeping him, as it’s pretty evident no one else wants him. Avila hasn’t completed 1 successful trade yet anyways. I really enjoy watching Boyd, and believe he has a bright career ahead of him. Can’t wait to get Fulmer back next summer, I’m confident he’ll be just fine.
Looks like the Tigers are going to Fulmer up this opportunity too.
What was wrong with the fulmer trade? It was for a rental and they weren’t winning. Fulmer was a solid starter until he got hurt. I don’t get the calculus of this comment.
The Tigers didn’t trade Fulmer when hus value was at its highest. Now he has little value with injuries and poor performance.
MLBTR has hit an all-time low… Fulmer has little value because he had one down year and is coming off a tommy john. Lord knows that’s such a death sentence for pitchers these days. Only highschool kids are having the surgery now.
Tigers didn’t trade Trammell or Whitaker, or even Gibson when their value was the highest either. That’s because they were rebuilding, and you don’t trade the young players that develop, You build around them. The goal is to improve the major league team, not have a highly rated minor league system.
This is no calculus. This is the typical garbage that gets posted here on MLBTR. Has been for years. People have no concept of value and prospect hug. But when it comes to an actual major league pitcher that is the definition of “cost control” something everyone, including MLBTR armchair general managers, supposedly covet, suddenly people don’t value it.
It’s all noise. There is nothing wrong with the Tigers holding on to Boyd. They still get a viable major league pitcher for dirt cheap for the rest of the year and until someone gives up value or he starts to hit arbitration.
The people thinking Fulmer (and Boyd) are not valuable are the same people who were posting on here claiming Verlander was going to massively decline back in 2014. I’m sure the Astros really regret trading for him 3 years into that decline…
@civilization It’s not hard to understand why ppl are saying what they are about Fulmer. He regressed ever year since his great rookie season and then came down with an arm related injury..
Secondly, value is relative. Yes, Boyd is cheap. However, what’s the value of what Detroit is asking for him? If they want top 50 prospects or a package of guys who are or could be top 100 prospects as soon as next year then the value is cheap in terms of dollars but certainly the prospect cost might seem too high. It’s not about “prospect hugging” it’s about getting the most value for your assets.
Detroit is certainly within their right to get the most they can but Boyd, such as with all pitchers, comes with risk whether it’s health or regression. Don’t be so insulted by the process.
Fulmer is not valuable at all relative to what he was. If you don’t understand a relative argument there’s really no point in conversing with you. Fulmer is a complete wild card who had been pitching like a #4 starter prior to getting hurt.
Fulmer put up 300 innings of 3.5 ERA, 3.7 FIP baseball over 2 seasons before having one season where he took an injury and now everyone is rushing to retcon away his previous work because of his 2018 season. It’s the same stuff people said about Verlander in 2014, here on this very board.
People writing Fulmer off pre-injury are crazy. Any real look at his numbers doesn’t show any worrying regression until the 2018 season and how much of that was injury and how much of that was an actual regression?
I’ve been around long enough to hear it. I’ve seen both sides of this scenario. Some guys come back just as strong. Other guys never make it back to the majors. Pretending the Tigers “messed up” by not trading Fulmer before his injury is just the height of hot takes.
Just as it’s pure a hot take to suggest the Tigers should do anything but hold out trading Boyd unless they get a return befitting what the very narrative in baseball (and within this community) has been over the last few years: “cost-controlled” players are “extremely valuable.”
I am looking forward to seeing Boyd and Fulmer in the rotation next year. Turnbul and Norris and Mize and Manning…. Should be a very good rotation.
Curious what the rumors were that the Tigers turned down for Fulmer.
The reason Fulmer was pitching like a #4 Starter is because he was pitching while hurt. The Tigers finally shut him down. I believe he has a very good chance of coming back strong. I expect a slow start next year just like Verlander had when he returned from his surgery. By the middle to end of 2020 season I think the Tigers will start to see him returning to his normal pitching performance. Norris is just recently started to go a little bit further into games. He will start strong next year. I will not be surprised to see the Tigers Team be much stronger next year.
I hope they keep Boyd and Greene. Let the Contenders shop somewhere else. The Tigers are building for the future, keep the building blocks Dombrowski brought to the Tigers just before he was fired. He knew what he was doing, keep them all and build around them.
2020 Pitching Staff
Boyd
Fulmer
Norris
Turnbull
Manning
Mize
Burrows
Faedo
Funkhouser
Skubal
This is a good Spring Training Battle waiting to be solved.
Here is what will happen tigers will keep him then next season when his ERA goes back up over five they will say “we should have dealt him when we had the chance“
Then he’ll be lifted from an early season game due to forearm tightness, and after weeks of therapy and rehab DET concludes he needs TJ surgery, and there goes 2020 and most of 2021. Yeah, trade him now for the best offer.
His advanced stats are saying he is legit. Late breakouts do happen folks and when the real numbers show it is legit than there is a good chance he is a mid 3 ERA with a lot of Ks in years to come.
The other side of that coin is that it is just as probably that he is a total flop and nothing more than a could/would have been for the Tigers. Those advanced stats don’t cover up for past performance, and he sure is legit for 4+ ERA and 5+ innings of work so unless he goes to an offensive powerhouse that goes into each his starts knowing they need to score often and lots of runs.
Finally, where did these :””advanced stats” come from….his uncle?
It has been examined by Fangraphs and others that Boyd is a different SP this year with a more deadly arsenal. If he had the same stuff as previous years and was just fortunate this year with a lucky BABIP etc then your points make more sense. Boyd is not turning into a pumpkin at midnight folks. He is just simply better which he worked hard to get to last year and in the offseason. He basically Astroized (copyrights on that term) himself this offseason:)
@dustinmichaels
One has to ask tho. If the Tigers feel that Boyd is legit and thus worth a high ask then why are they even considering trading him since they are rebuilding and he has 3 more years of control and likely would agree to a team friendly extension given his shaky past performance?
Probably because they have 5 stud pitching prospects in the minors and zip for hitting prospects.
This
If Teams are scared about his performance, then why are they interested in him at all? Go shop somewhere else.
The Tigers could use a good Bat and would consider trading to a Team that could use a good Arm. Simple as that. Tigers can buy a Bat in the Off Season without loosing any of our young Pitchers!
Lots More $$$$$$ falling off the Accounting Books at the end of this season just like Last Season. And Zimmermann falls off the Books at the end of 2020.
Doubtful. The one thing Boyd is, is durable.
Hopefully Al Avila has bought into his own hype, because Boyd will have to be the “young established star” he wanted in a trade.
On MLB Central today, they said that the Tigers have a #1 starter value on Boyd, while teams interested in him view him as a #3 starter. That makes for a chasm in what each side thinks is fair value
He’s definitely not better than a #3 on a contender. It’s the 3 additional years of control, low price tag, and chance that it’s a true breakout that is driving up the ask.
I don’t see this as a Michael Fulmer 2.0 deal as Fulmer had much higher trade value at the time and there was the hope of building around him for the next window of contention. No chance of that with Boyd unless they sign him to an extension
I think they only have one additional year of control over Fullmer than Boyd. A couple good signings and a couple of players on offense develop, and the Central is pretty weak.
That vastly depends on what team you’re talking about. The Yanks and BoSox could certainly use him.
Only to eat innings through the end of the season.
You’re talking about a guy that has only topped 135 innings once and that was last year with 170.
Neither the Yanks nor the Sox, need another backend starter that tasks the bullpen and can’t pitch an entire season because he’s on an innings count.
The Tigers are asking as if he’s a legitimate #1 or 2 with a proven track record of success.
Boyd is better SP than any NYY pitcher Rocky7. Have you looked at your mediocre rotation?
Probably because he is pitching like a #2. The Tigers have nothing to lose and everything to gain, and these teams have a WS to win. If your #3 and 4 aren’t as important as your 1 & 2 in the playoffs I would agree with what you’re saying. I agree his track record isn’t there, but he isn’t 34 either. I would honestly take Boyd over Noah and not lose my entire farm, given his current track record vs Noah’s previous.
I wouldn’t say he’s obviously better than German at this point. I think both guys are trying to sustain success start to start.
But we can’t ignore the splits. Boyd’s ERA is a full run ++ Away/Home. Much the same with the Yanks where the entire pitching staff’s (starters and relievers) are a full 2 runs ++ higher at home vs on the road.
We’ve obviously seen how much some pitchers are effected by Yankee stadium. It’s not out of line to question what Boyd’s ERA would look like away from the spacious Detroit stadium and in NY. A 3.96 ERA needs to be viewed with context and that context suggests he’s good but not great. I’m paying for what he is not what he might turn into. You can do that with draft picks but for mlb player’s I’m not paying above what the numbers suggest because it’s no guarantee he can sustain that especially in NY.
Tanaka era home 3.23 Away 7.40
German Home 2.13 away 5.60
CC Home 2.60 Away 6.95
While Happ and Paxton are better on the road by 1… the other 3 are better at home by at least 3. Putting that into context… Boyd might be better in Yankee stadium… or not.
@Melchez Not sure how your info is to be used but I do know that Boyd is worse away from Detroit’s pitcher friendly park. It’s just a fact. How much it plays into negotiations is debatable.
Detroit’s Comerica Park grades out as a very neutral stadium and has been for years.
Those are just facts… use them how you want. Or you can just say “Boyd will do worse in Yankee stadium” because you think he might.
Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, and Scherzer? How about Zimmerman now compared to his days In Washington? They might say otherwise knicksfan.
Guys im not saying Boyd CAN’T improve. But im not paying a price assuming he does. We HAVE to project when it comes to rookie prospects but we’re talking about a guy who has logged over 500 innings. why is this hard to understand? he should be valued for what he is today instead of insisting he’ll be even better next year.
@KnicksFanCavsFan
Boyd’s ERA By Teams Ballpark 2019:
Baltimore: 0.00 (1 game)
Yankees: 1.42 (1 game)
Mariners: 1.42 (1 game)
Detroit: 3.32 (10 games)
Boston: 3.86 (1 game)
White Sox: 4.76 (2 games)
Royals: 5.14 (1 game)
Blue Jays: 5.40 (1 game)
Braves: 5.40 (1 game)
Indians: 7.50 (2 games)
Royals at Amer Park: 9.00 (1 game)
Tigers defense has hurt him much more than smaller Ballparks.
Hard to see the right fit around the league. Cardinals may be a good partner. They’re in first, farm is position player heavy, and they badly need starters. Their park is also tolerable for fly ball pitchers like Boyd, unlike New York or Milwaukee.
And the Red Birds could use a lefty starter. Plenty of trade pieces.
As long as they leave Gorman and Knizner out of it, get it done. Dunno if the Tigers will accept anything less though from the way they’ve been posturing.
Does anyone else remember when Boyd was like a 7th starter with 5th starter upside, or is that just me? The Tigers didn’t stumble into a legitimate star. He was filler in the David Price deal.
@js20011041….I certainly remember the Jays using him as a swingman/spot starter or 7th starter as u said….I still think he tops out as a #3 on contending teams but sure he could help anchor a weak staff….I also don’t think he is worth what they are asking for….which is why he will stay put unless Greene is added to the deal to get better prospects…..that said Boyd will bring back a couple prospects just inside the top 100 but they will not get elite prospects
Yeah I remember Mark Appel too.
Detroit Tigers have him valued as a number one starter? Based on what? 75% of one season? If you calculate the last three seasons not counting this season his ERA comes out to an average of 4.67! That might not even be a number three like most teams have him listed as The thing is the Tigers have to say they value him as a number one starter to justify they are unbelievably overpriced demands.
Having watched his improvement each game this season, I have no problem if they keep him. He is the type of player teams build around.
The key question is….do the Tigers believe this season is a fluke or is he now a much better pitcher?
If they think it’s real, they should keep him and allow him to prove himself further, which will only enhance his value. If they don’t think it’s real, they’ll take the highest bid.
If Houston wants that edge on their opponents, they will trade for bumgarner. Plain n simple
With Stroman off the board, I agree. If not Bumgarner then Robbie Ray. Syndergaard and Wheeler have far too many question marks at this point to justify the high return cost.
Boyd will be a Tiger at the end of this season and every other season for the foreseeable future. At his very best he has never been better than an average pitcher before 2019 and his 5.94 ERA over his last 9 starts is more indicative of the Boyd we have seen in the past. No team is going to give up Top 100 prospects for him.
Like all people who are clueless…… Boyd is a different pitcher, he has become a pitcher. he uses all parts of the strike zone and has a wipe out slider. That had lead him to a top 3 strikeout pitcher in the AL. is he a #1 starter …. No. he is also 1-0 with a very low ERA over 12 innings in Yankee stadium with like 17 K’s.this season. With the upside he is starting to build and 3 plus years of control he should get 2 top 100 MLB prospects or he doesnt get traded. that’s plain and simple. If you dont think so u have not seen him pitch this entire season. You only value him because he is on the worst team in baseball with bad defense.. Hence 90% + people who make comments havent seen him pitch!! NUFF SAID
Found the Oriole fan
@rmenzel You can point to that stat about what he’s done vs the Yanks if you wish but that was back in April. In his last 8 starts he’s given up 4 runs or more in 6 of those games. He appears to be a lot like Paxton is in the sense that he seldom goes more than 6 innings, throws around 95-110 pitches and gives up 3 -4 runs during his starts. That’s a middle of rotation guy at best. Not a knock on him but it is what it is. Top 100 lists are subjective imo. Would be interested to know what prospects with the Yanks they’re asking for in return.
Even with his last 9 starts, he still has a better SIERA (4th best in league), FIP, xFIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9 than Justin Verlander.
Now, that’s not to say he is better than Verlander, but lets not pretend that pitchers can not make significant strides in development, especially at a young age..
Overvaluing your players is worse than undervaluing them.
Dude is striking out 12/9 and walking less then 2/9. He is a very heavy fly ball pitcher so he has a homer issue this year with the Titleist’s they are playing with. He is controlled for 3 more years after this one so the Tigers ask is justifiable. They should only move a guy like this if they are blown away. The Tigers have some great pitching prospects coming with Mize and Manning possibly as early as next year. A Boyd, Mize, Manning, Norris staff will be pretty good with really high upside. The Tigers really should hold onto him.
He’s 28 years old and has been a soft tossing, low upside 5th (at best) starter his entire career. He raised his K/9 by nearly 4 this year while reducing his walk rate. That doesn’t happen. Either he’s taking HEAVY doses of PED’s, or more likely, he’s experiencing unsustainably high performance. He has a career 4.50 FIP. I’m not trading anything more than a marginal prospect for him.
That’s why he is staying. Three more years of control they don’t have to only time will tell but he looked pretty good when he played my Red Sox. You throw his name out there and if someone bites so be it otherwise if I’m the Tigers I’m plenty happy to have him front what should be an excellent rotation in the next two years.
I agree in that I think he stays. Honestly, I think if I’m the Tigers, I think hanging onto him is probably the right move, unless some team offers something stupid. It’s probably a better bet to keep him and hope that his production continues, where you can sell him next year, rather than to sell him now when he is still a fairly unproven pitcher.
Or he’s learned how to more effectively use his arsenal of pitches. Not everything needs to be 99 mph gas to strike guys out. Patrick Corbin is highly successful w a similar pitch mix. But Corbin also gets the ball on the ground a lot better than Boyd. Which in today’s game is pretty valuable w the way the balls are flying out. Boyd’s detractor is the HRS. It depends if teams see that as a fixable issue or not. No team is going to gamble the farm on a guy w that issue but they’ll give something valuable up. Whether or not that’s enough for Avila to pull the trigger is anyone’s guess. He’s not getting multiple blue chip prospects, for sure.
@jbigz12
Plate Appearances Against: Boyd: -548 Verlander -558
Hits Against:: Boyd -120 Verlander -90
Home Runs Against: Boyd -22 Verlander -28
Verlander has faced 10 more batters this year than Boyd and has given up 6 more Home Runs. Verlander has given up 30 less hits but look at the Tigers defense compared to the Astros.
Boyd has pitched 10 games in Detroit & 12 on the road. He has given up 10 Home Runs on the road and 12 at Home.
Verlander has given up 14 at home and 14 away.
Boyd has given up Home Runs in these Parks in 2019
Detroit-12 in 10 Games
Cleveland-5 in 2 games
Chicago WS-2 in 2 Games
Boston-1 in 1 Game
Atlanta-1 in 1 Game
Against Kansas City but in a different Ballpark & City -1 in 1 Game for a Grand Total of 22.
He gave up 0 Home Runs against the Yankees in New York, 0 in Seattle, 0 in Toronto, 0 in Kansas City, and 0 in Baltimore.
He has faced Cleveland 3 time for 18 innings, twice in Cleveland & once in Detroit.
He has faced Kansas City 3 times for 18 innings, once at Home, once in Kauffman and once at Amer Park.
He has faced Chicago White Sox 2 times for 11.1 innings both in Chicago.
js20011041, your first comment sounds like 75% of the people here who have never seen him pitch. Living in the Detroit area, I unfortunately have to watch them. Don’t know where you get the “soft tossing lefty” stuff from. His velocity is actually lower than previous years which allows more movement. Didn’t know 94mph was soft. That’s quite an accusation about “heavy PEDS”. Ask for the moon, maybe you will get it. Hope they keep him, they will need a veteran when the kid pitchers are ready
Per fangraphs, his avg fastball velo is 92 mph. Maybe that was a power pitcher 30 to 40 years ago, but it absolutely is not now. Soft tossing is accurate.
@bruin1012 His career 1.5 HR/9 is the same as it is this year so it’s really not just about a juiced ball. It’s consistent with his career numbers.
A player can earn league minimum and is “cheap” but if the asking price is a collection of top 100 guys then no, he’s not “cheap”.
Actually his HR/FB has spiked sharply this year yet he has pitched much better then years before likely caused by the ball. A lot of pitchers are giving up career highs in HR/FB this year once again due to the Titleist baseball.
@bruin1012
I’m not sure which is more relevant HR/9 or HR/FB but his career HR/9 is i.5 the same as it was this year and a minuscule difference between last years 1.4
Who cares about the pitching staff, where are the bats!
It’s not that the 28-year-old’s ERA is on the rise — though it has been.
Oh the ERA’s a risin’
And the wins a gettin’ low
And I scarcely think
We’ll get a trade
Till we get to August oh.
With apologies to Burl Ives fans.
Valuation is subjective and often we use past performance as an indicator for future performance. Many may filter current performance thru past performances, thinking someone is better than the numbers show.
For Boyd you get a low cost, high control, solid SP who’s has shown improved numbers from year to year. His projected ARB costs for the next 3 years may only be $30-35MM total(EST.$5MM+’19’; $8-10MM’20; $15MM+ ’21). He is making $2.6MM with a 3.3WAR this year. I would think it is safe to say he will “over-perform” his income the next 3 years.
Many have said that Boyd is not a top-of-the-rotation guy and I agree that by some guidelines it is currently true. The most common reasoning is his track record, but he has made some major strides this year. When comparing his record to the other major top starting pitchers available: Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, and Wheeler he does quite well. I don’t think either Bumgarner or Bauer will be moved.
These Boyd ranking compare to the other four. The numbers were from Baseball-Reference : GS#2; IP#2; ERA#3(.03 behind Ray); FIP#1; WHIP#1; ERA+#2; ER#3; HR#4; BB#1; SO#1; BB/9 #1; SO/9 #1(tied-Ray); SO/BB #1; WAR#2.
When looking at possible suitors he fits right into a top rotation slot for several teams. Yankees, Philadelphia, and St. Louis could put him in a #1 or #2 spot. Minnesota, Atlanta, and Milwaukee in a #2 or #3 spot. The point being, Boyd would fill in as well or better than the other 4.
He is the least expensive and has the most team control. I think Detroit should hold firm and demand top dollar since his “valuation” for the next 3+ years will be very high.
With what offense though ? And defense ? Best they can hope to compete for in the next few years is a wild card. The only way they justify holding on to him is if he finishes strong and they get a good haul over the winter.
If the trade doesn’t bring back the offensive player(s) they need, it makes no sense to trade him. It’s not like they have pitching other than him, either. It may be coming but hasn’t arrived yet.
Yeah Tiger fans! Just give him away! I’d hold out til the offseason and make these pukes pay up. No Tucker, No Boyd! Same with the rest of them. Didn’t Tucker suck last Fall? It’s not like they aren’t taking on risk too. But I’d dang sure get who I wanted or keep my guy.
Guess Avila’s growing a backbone after embarrassing trades like JD and Suarez.
Detroit should (and will) insist on a lot more than Tucker.
With how Avila is talking I’d be willing to bet he’s asking for something like Tucker and Beer for Boyd and Greene (“Young star + assets”)
Boyd’s peripherals fit what the Astros often target (K% and swinging strikes are good) with solidly above average movement to go with great control so far. The makings are there from the pitches he has but he does get slammed by hard hit balls. Either way, Avila won’t be getting much this deadline for anyone
Astros also target groundball pitchers who bring heat, and neither of those describe Boyd. Beer would be tough to let go, but it doesn’t hurt like Tucker. If they give up Tucker, it has to be for a legit 1-2 SP. Boyd is not that on a playoff team, regardless of what Tigers fans think.
I agree. I have to see what he does rest of the year and good portion of next. If he keeps it up then yes he’s a Ace but there has to be some consistency. I agree he’s having a really nice year and putting up good k rate while also putting up a low walk rate. But Too many players have a a bang up year then follow up with a year that there on verge of getting designated for assignment.
What legit #1 or 2 in this league would you get for only Tucker?
@bobsacamano Are you valuing Boyd as a legit #1 or #2?
Literally just asking him – “what legit #1 or #2 you expect to get for only Tucker?” But to answer your question – yes IMO he’s pitching like a #2 this year; I understand his history tells otherwise. But he’s young, affordable, and has 3 more years of control. I don’t think Tucker is worth a proven #1 or #2.
It’s funny when you talk about bottom of the rotation lefties having break out seasons that aren’t sustainable. Then I think of a former Red Sox pitcher named Jamie Moyer.
July 30, 1996: Traded by the Boston Red Sox to the Seattle Mariners for Darren Bragg.
Another decent comp for Boyd is Pomeranz. Was having a great breakout year in 2016. Had shown more flashes in prior seasons than Boyd has but also had an injury history and one less year control.
He netted the Pads MLB’s #20 prospect , and nothing else.
Could Boyd go straight up for Pache, Kiriloff, Whitley, Uriah’s, Waters, Gorman, et al?
I’d think hard about a Kiriloff plus smaller pieces deal if I were the Twins.
Seems like Detroit is asking far more than that, though.
Lefties seem to take longer to develop, and he looks to have tuned the corner and had a real shot at being a consistent #2 at best, #3 more likely guy. Very similar to the Quintana situation, but since he never progressed beyond #3 status and the Cubs have been seen as overpaying with Eloy + +, its a little harder for Avila, especialy with Syndergaard surprisingly coming on thr market.
The Tigers should ask high until thr last second…and it will likely be a last second deal, but I think it gets done for 2 Top 100s, one in the upper half. Not sure yet who it will be, but this smells like Yankees, Braves or Padres at this point, possibly with Greene tagging along to boost the take.
When Boyd was traded to Detroit for David Price,Daniel Norris was supposedly the centerpiece. I objected, noting that Matthew Boyd’s minor league stats were both better, and more consistent.
Over the last 4 years, I’ve watched Boyd become a better pitcher. Not only is his stuff sharper, his confidence and competitiveness reminds me a little of his old teammate, Justin Verlander.
I think some of Boyd’s detractors would be of a different opinion had he garnered more wins. Been able to pitch with a lead more often. And, had more plays made behind him.
While Boyd may never be a Justin Verlander, I think he’s going to have a long and stellar big league career. Given his club controlled status, I think a hefty price tag is justified.
They don’t need to trade him…
I’m a Boyd detractor and it has nothing to do with his win/loss record. It has everything to do with the fact that he’ vastly outperforming both his stuff and his previous history this year. He’s raised his K/9 by 3.7 this year and his K% by 10%. While he’s throwing about 1 mph faster than last year, it’s still only 92 mph and right in line with his career history. There is nothing in his statistical profile or his scouting report that indicates this type of jump in performance. What’s he’s doing most likely isn’t sustainable. Now that means that the Tigers should likely hang onto him and hope that the performance continues. I just don’t think it’s likely.
Raising K/9 by 3.7 and K% by 10% without upping speed is a big sign his stuff is improving.
Please don’t teach others your baseball philosophy. It is not good.
My philosophy is that a 28 y/o pitcher with a history 4.50 FIP and a 92 mph fastball suddenly raising his k/9 by 50% is abnormal and probably unsustainable. Betting on players like Boyd to continue their performance is like hitting on 20 at the blackjack table. It ain’t smart and I know which one of us is going to go broke.
I also like Boyd as a number 3 type pitcher, but what’s the point of holding on to him and letting him pitch through which will likely be 100 loss seasons through the rest of his contract? Tigers need controllable and affordable position players to stock their system with. Something they lack greatly. His value will never be higher than it is this season. I think looking back on his career, this might be his best season. This will be Fulmer 2.0 if they don’t deal him.
Tigers agree that they need controllable and affordable position players. If they don’t get offered a quality player(s) back, what’s the point of trading him?
Within reason, what would it take for Boyd to go to the Dodgers without giving up May or Lux?
Could a deal including Peterson, Ruiz and a pitcher be something that would work?
Alex Verdugo would have given the Dodgers Verlander and likely a championship. What a bunch of morons in LA.
Verdugo in the long run was better than a tiring Verlander.
If Verlander is “tiring”, what does that make Kershaw?
One championship banner is worth the price of one top prospect. Dodgers could be working on a threepeet if Verlander had gone to LA. I guess some people’s priorities is flashy offense. Astros prefer championships.
Propose the Braves send top prospects (MLB #25) starter Kyle Wright, (MLB#96) starter Bryse Wilson and Drew Lugbauer (Braves #29 and Michigan Star) to Detroit for Mathew Boyd and Shane Greene. Two MLB 100 prospects plus a Univ of Michigan idol.
Tigers need bats not pitching though.
Because DET has an excess of pitching in MiLB. There’s no guarantee that all or any will ever pan out.
There is even less opportunity for the non-existent position players to pan out. Given their choice, they have to hope for the pitchers to come thru, and look to acquire offense.
Not unreasonable. If I’m the Twins, I maybe consider Kiriloff and Graterol. That hurts, but it might be worth it. If the Tiggers want more than that, well, so long and good luck.
Twins are not giving up both Graterol and Kirilloff for Boyd. In no world that does that occur. If the Tigers got one that’d be a homerun.
Two #50-ish prospects for a #2-ish starter with 3+ years of control and ace-like peripherals? Doesn’t seem totally unreasonable to me, and I’m a Twins fan.
Two #50-ish prospects for a #2-ish starter with 3+ years of control and ace-like peripherals? Doesn’t seem totally unreasonable to me, and I’m a Twins fan.
I also still think Royce Lewis for Boyd straight up would be a fascinating challenge trade.
Metrics around a 3.45 FIP/xFIP aren’t ace type peripherals. That’s a stones throw away from Zack Wheeler’s underlying numbers. Look at how the game is moving. Blue chip Prospects are the most highly valued commodity in the game. Paxton had Boyd’s peripherals and fetched 1 top 100 prospect and 2 nobody’s. You can look at the Stroman return as well. Boyd doesn’t even have their type of track record. Even The consensus best catcher coming into this season only fetched 1 top 50 prospect + some lower fillers.
Teams do not pay that kind of value. Boyd won’t get it. ITs how the game is shifting. That’s not a debate about whether that’s a good thing or not. It’s just the reality of it.
OK, Boyd’s 3.35 xFIP is 9th, between deGrom and Kershaw. His 3.47 FIP is 11th between Corbin and Berrios. Fair question as to whether his breakout is sustainable, but that also provides the opportunity to get an ace for cheap if it is.
Boyd and Lewis were both on Fangraphs’ top 50 trade list as honorable mentions.
I’ll admit the Blue Jays return for Stroman sets a very low bar, but it’s also really hard for me to believe that was the best package they could get. Hard to understand why they took it, especially several days before the deadline.
The Yankees gave up 1 real prospect for Paxton too. It’s not a complete sham of a return here. Teams don’t give up packages of top prospects. A select few players command that kind of return. The GM’s that have those blue chip prospects also aren’t DD or Hoyer/Epstein. Those two were really the guys willing to give them out. There’s no more Dave Stewart’s hanging around front offices. Really the polar opposite.
I love all of the negative comments on how Boyd is not worth a top prospect. The Tigers don’t have to trade him, and yes they should be asking for the moon and stars for him to see if anyone bites. They don’t have anything to lose in that scenario.
exactly, they have no more payroll to shed. They can just hold on to him.
Hope they keep Boyd. Soon as Zim and his contract is gone Tigers will have good rotation and low payroll. Playoffs soon to follow.
Boyd forTucker and Nova.
Boyd for Waters,Muller and Shewmake.
Boyd for Frazier,Florial and Garcia
Boyd for Sanchez,Brujan and McClanahan.
Take your pick.
Aren’t all you Astros fans panning Boyd the same ones who were screaming about not wanting Verlander because he was too old, washed up and no better than a 3 or 4 on your staff 2 years ago. Bet you were glad they made that trade after the parade. I know Boyd is no Verlander and the Astros pitching staff is much stronger now, but what if he was a key figure in winning another ring? Wouldn’t that be worth a top hitting prospect on an already loaded and fairly young team?
Exactly!!!!
I don’t subscribe to the foolhearty concept of smaller market and nadir teams being developmental organizations for large market and apex teams. They are acquiring high risk free agents and assuming all the health and comeback risk for the eventual trade in return for a high risk prospect. DET dumped Mike Fiers last year for two Logan Neverwill bes. DET would’ve been better off signing him for three years with the intent for him to pitch for the Tigers three years vs signing him one year with the intent of trading him after 1/2 season for more high risk, high probability of miss, prospects. Its just folly.
I will be disappointed if DET trades Boyd for another team’s waiver wire trash or high risk prospect. Starting pitchers are more valuable than most position players and DET already did the work to develop Matthew Boyd. He is better than most prospects will ever become.
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Someone should inform Jeff Todd that Boyd’s era has lowered the last 2 starts.
All of the contending teams have much better starting pitching than the Yankees, a team not built for the postseason.
Yanks won’t make it past the first round.
You don’t need 5 great starters to win 4 games with days off in between.
The Yankees are going to be riding Green, Ottavino, Betances, Kahnle, Britton and Chapman all postseason regardless of what starter they do or don’t acquire. The bullpen is going. To be the reason they take home the crown.
Dodgers are rooting for the yankees. A high powered offense like the dodgers should light up that rotation.
Yup they will be riding there bullpen but that bullpen will be toast before they playoffs from overuse.
Look I think everyone misses the point with a guy with this much control. The Tigers aren’t looking for a fair market trade they are looking to be blown away. They don’t have to trade this guy. They probably aren’t even expecting to trade him but if someone gets desperate then they will trade him.