Outfielder Jason Heyward entered the majors as a can’t-miss prospect in 2010, three years after the Braves chose him 14th overall in the 2007 draft. Heyward made good on the hype in his first at-bat on Opening Day, smashing a three-run homer off Cubs right-hander Carlos Zambrano, and never really looked back from there in his first season. During a rookie campaign in which he didn’t turn 21 until August, Heyward posted 4.6 fWAR on the strength of tremendous offensive production and right field defense. Little did anyone know Heyward wouldn’t again approach the .277/.393/.456 slash and 134 wRC+ he recorded as a rookie.
Heyward did remain a quality hitter from 2011-15 with the Braves and Cardinals, albeit not as formidable as he was during his initial campaign. Still, combining the above-average offense, stellar defense and well-regarded base running he displayed over his first several seasons, he landed an eight-year, $184MM contract from the Cubs entering the 2016 campaign. Heyward was part of the Cubs’ drought-breaking World Series team in the initial year of his deal, in which he delivered a behind-the-scenes rain delay speech that may have helped the team overcome the Indians in Game 7.
Title aside, the Cubs mostly haven’t gotten the bang for their buck they wanted from giving Heyward one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. During his first three years in a Cubs uniform, Heyward slashed a paltry .252/.322/.367 (85 wRC+) in 1,562 plate appearances. Heyward continued to flash terrific defense during that period, but the overall package was worth just 4.1 fWAR – less than he registered in four individual seasons before heading to Chicago.
Heyward did manage a league-average 2.0 fWAR in 2018, indicating he was hardly a lost cause, though his offense was middling at best for the third consecutive season. This year has been a different story, however. Across 320 trips to the plate, the 29-year-old has hit .273/.364/.471 (116 wRC+) with 14 home runs – already his highest total as a Cub and his most in a season since 2013. With 1.4 fWAR at the 80-game mark, Heyward’s on pace for his most valuable year as a Cub. The figure’s still not excellent, in part because Heyward has struggled as a center fielder this year, but it’s respectable for a player whose Cubs tenure has been a disappointment overall.
The question is whether the above-average offensive version of Heyward has truly returned. If we’re to believe Statcast, maybe not. Heyward’s expected weighted on-base average, .324, ranks below the league mean and lags well behind his .355 real wOBA. Likewise, Heyward’s expected slugging percentage (30th percentile), hard-hit percentage (37th percentile), average exit velocity (54th percentile) and expected batting average (61st percentile) all range from well below par to a bit above it. The left-handed Heyward’s also continuing a career-long trend of having difficulty against same-handed pitchers, who have held him to a horrid .200/.262/.300 line and a 48 wRC+ this season.
On the other hand, Heyward’s showing off an impressive ability to draw walks that has helped buoy his numbers. With a 12.5 percent walk rate (his highest since his rookie year) against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate, Heyward’s K/BB ratio ranks 25th in the majors. Heyward’s also displaying way more power than he has in recent years, evidenced in part by his aforementioned home run spike. His isolated power (.199) is his greatest since 2012 and sits 84 points higher than the ISO he combined for during his first three Cubs seasons. Heyward’s doing much more damage throughout several zones compared to last year, as FanGraphs’ heat maps show (2018, 2019).
One cause: Heyward’s hitting far fewer infield fly balls than he did earlier in his Chicago stint. An infield fly’s essentially an automatic out, and Heyward hit them at a 16.9 percent rate over the prior three seasons. That number has shrunk to 10.4 this year. With that in mind, it’s no surprise Heyward has upped his hard contact by 6.1 percent compared to 2016-18 and decreased his soft-hit rate by almost 8 percent, according to FanGraphs. Heyward has also logged a 12.2-degree launch angle which ranks as his loftiest in the Statcast era.
None of this is to say the Cubs should be content with what they’ve gotten from Heyward during his run with the team. In fact, they’re stuck with Heyward, who won’t be opting out of the remaining four years and $86MM on his contract during the upcoming offseason. However, he has been a legitimate bright spot this year on a team that has been something of a letdown overall. The Cubs do hold a National League playoff spot at the moment, but not by much. They’ve been slumping since late May and have won just 45 of their first 85 games. Heyward certainly hasn’t been part of the problem, though.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Don’t get excited everyone lol it’s just the juiced balls is why his numbers are up this year.
His numbers are pretty good in a league context though
still though, the balls composition has been altered this season (maybe not the first time) to have extra pop and carry. Its very noticable when typical flyouts are leaving the park and ricocheting off the walls like a rubber ball.
You have zero proof of this claim. Every year people say this.
cbs article titled “Major League Baseball sets home run record for second consecutive month as homer-happy 2019 season continues” don’t forget they manufacture balls daily, so a change of formula here and there isn’t impossible.
also no way these thiner and more athletic athlets are out slugging stocky dudes of past.
how many links can you handle
He’s still not $23.5M a year productive, which is the entire problem people have with him. He’s a very good defender, he’s got certain intangibles that you would probably not consider and he’s been okay with the bat this year, but that was a huge contract that isn’t looking all that good in the grand scheme of things.
Until Heyward gave that speech, the Cubs weren’t motivated to win Game 7 of the World Series in extra innings.
Clearly worth every penny.
Oh brother
If that is how you cope with an awful contract — you do you. I start every Thanksgiving prayer with no title and Freeman than a title, that contract and Heyward.
Are people confused around the table?
No, the table is in ATL so they are thinking the same thing.
Psst… this comment is obviously from a trolling Pirates fan. You are making yourself look silly
I have no idea how I could have made that sarcasm more obvious.
Having said that…Cubs fans. So, the confusion is understandable.
That sounds like some Giants level nonsense. “He’s a fan favorite, therefore his gross contract is entirely justified.”
This is what I say as a Giants fan whenever someone rips on the Barry Zito contract. If it wasn’t for him the Giants would have been eliminated in Game 5 of the NLCS against the Cards.
Does it work for you?
Yo Connor I really like these types of articles
Thank you!
The Braves 100% made the right decision by building around Freeman instead of Heyward. Also, we turned Shelby Miller into Dansby Swanson + Ender Inciarte. Win, win.
The Braves “turned Shelby Miller into Dansby Swanson + Ender Inciarte” you mean.
Dave Stewart “turned Dansby Swanson + Ender Inciarte into Shelby Miller” you mean.
No, I meant we. That’s why I said it. The Braves are publicly traded and fans are what make sports matter. If it weren’t for us, there would only beer leagues and pickup games.
The Braves aren’t publicly traded. The only North American sports franchise that people own stock in is the Green Bay Packers. Fans are consumers.
Wrong again. The Braves are publicly traded. A quick google search would save you some embarrassment.
Do you own any majority stock in “Liberty Media”? If not you have no say in the way the Braves operate..period.
Are you another one of those that don’t like that sports teams for decades now have encouraged their fans to think of themselves as part of their culture? And for that matter, what does this stupid statement contribute to the conversation?
One of the best signing the Braves didnt make. Even when he was having good
years he was maddeningly inconsistent.
He’s obviously a troll. An uneducated troll at that.
hindsight is 20/20
Dansby Swanson is a soft Shawon Dunston at the very best. Congratulations.
Maybe, maybe not. IMO, he is 25 years old and just scratching the surface of what he can become.
Fine. But the negativity towards Heyward because a team chose to pay him a truckload seems really petty. Especially when you’re comparing him essentially to a jag.
That could be the worst comp I’ve ever seen.
Awful contract. Every team has or had one, though we currently have a few.
Either way, I love Jason heyward. He has handled himself incredibly well despite his poor results. He’s been supportive of teammates, acts like a total professional, and at least appears to be a good dude.
I’m glad that he’s having the year that he is. It would be great if it continued.
So money does buy class.
No, it’s the only thing you can’t buy.
As a Chicago baseball fan I have always respected Jason Heyward as a fine all-around MLB player as well as his contribution as a leader in the clubhouse.
I also believe part of his problem with the Cubs is related to his misuse by manager Joe Maddon including when the “genius” decided to bat Heyward #2 to begin his North Side tenure. That role was not something that Heyward was accustomed to as Brave and Cardinal. To make matters worse, Maddon had the ideal #2 hitter in fellow newcomer FA Ben Zobrist on his 2016 roster. It’s not as if Maddon wasn’t familiar with Zobrist since he managed him for the first 9 years of his MLB career as a Tampa Ray.
It’s all the more ironic that Heyward’s rain delay pep talk in game #7 of the World Series in Cleveland helped bail out Maddon’s poor managing that nearly cost the Cubs their first championship in 108 years.
As a White Sox fan also, I wouldn’t mind seeing Heyward on the South Side to fill their RF vacancy while also providing a needed left-handed bat to a future batting order that looks to be heavily right-handed. I also have more faith in White Sox manager Rick Renteria’s ability to utilize Heyward properly in the field and in his lineup. Unlike Maddon, Renteria doesn’t have an ego that needs to be stroked. Renteria also doesn’t have an agenda to revolutionize baseball managing like Maddon. I feel Renteria would keep Heyward and his perennial Gold Glove in RF and find a regular spot somewhere for him in the bottom half of the White Sox lineup. As the South Side manager, Renteria hasn’t shown an inclination to play “musical chairs” with his batting orders or fielding alignments on a daily basis like Maddon does to the north.
If the Cubs still feel a need to launch Heyward then perhaps the White Sox would oblige providing owner Tom Ricketts picks up a sizable chunk of his remaining contract. I’m quite certain that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf would insist on that in any trade discussions. lol
I believe the White Sox are set on having Jiminez and Robert platoon the outfield with either Basabe, Rutherford or Walker in a few years.
I find the hatred for Maddon around the league (by fans) interesting. I wonder if it’s because he’s a bit eccentric? He has made some questionable decisions, but he also brought a very, very young team to the world series and won it. You can argue that he almost “blew it”, but the Cubs won–so that is that, right? Manager’s sometimes bail out the team, the team sometimes bail out the manager–so it goes.
As far as Renteria not playing musical chairs with his line-up. The White Sox haven’t had enough quality players to warrant needing to shift them in and out and get different guys at bat. I think that is changing now, but while he’s been a manager, they’ve been lacking. Meanwhile, up until this year, the Cubs have had a lot of solid players who could start everyday and need regular at bats.
I think a lot of criticism that falls on Maddon could be placed on Hoyer and Epstein. People don’t like Maddon’s bullpen usage, but Maddon has yet to have a dominant bullpen. He typically has 2-3 guys and then an assortment of unproven relief pitchers shuttling back and forth between AAA. When you’re Boone and have the Yankees bullpen, you can put in whoever and not really worry about it.
Maddon isn’t perfect, but the guy brought the Rays to the world series and then won it with the Cubs. I liked Renteria when he was the Cubs coach, but there was a reason they brought Maddon in and let him go.
I do agree that Heyward should stay in right field. It’s where he adds the most value.
Jason Heyward will be at the half-way point of his 8 year contract following the 2019 season. Unfortunately, I don’t view Luis Alexander Basabe or Blake Rutherford as the answer in RF for the White Sox.
Basabe just can’t stay healthy and even when he is his ceiling appears to be that of an MLB 4th outfielder. Rutherford has been terribly inconsistent since the White Sox acquired him from the Yankees. He has been on a roll since early June but his overall numbers are still pedestrian with his ugly April and May in AA. He was compared to a young David Justice in the Yankee system but looks more like the bad version of Avisail Garcia with too little power and too many whiffs.
Steele Walker now looks to be the most promising White Sox OF not named Luis Robert or Eloy Jimenez. He also has a name that needs to be in MLB, if not the NFL (lol). But this is his first full pro season after being the White Sox #2 pick in the 2018 June Rule 4 Draft. Despite having the tag of an advanced college hitter, he likely won’t make his MLB debut until late 2021 or early 2022 provided his production continues at each minor league level. Heyward’s final contract year would be in 2023. Heyward could then pass the baton to Walker at that point in time.
Clearly Heyward is not a $21-22M dollar per year player at this stage of his MLB career. But he would be a decent one at $10-11M which is why no team will touch his contract without the Cubs paying it down or assuming another bad deal in a potential trade.
“The centerfielder should bat first, the second baseman should bat second, the rightfielder third…..”
The White Sox will probably have Robert leading off then Moncada batting in the two hole and Jiminez batting third.
Luis Robert has predominately been the White Sox leadoff hitter with Nick Madrigal getting most of his PA’s in the #2 slot in the White Sox system. Since Robert and Madrigal have been reunited at AA Birmingham those has been their exclusive roles in the lineup. Each hitter offers the best combination of BA/OBP and SB potential to the White Sox. Madrigal would be the prototypical #2 hitter with his tremendous contact skills.
As for Yoan Moncada, he could become the White Sox #3 hitter if he continues to put up his current triple slash numbers going forward. Otherwise, I believe Andrew Vaughn might eventually fit that slot best once he becomes a fixture on the South Side. Of course, all this is assuming that Jose Abreu doesn’t return in 2020 with a contract extension. Abreu has been the White Sox regular #3 batter for some time now and would likely retain that spot, at least at the onset of his new deal.
Heyward can opt this off-season to test the market if he has a great year. I am pretty sure the Cubs’ front office is hoping this may happen to start paying other guys with future contracts like Baez or Contreras who are marquee players while possibly getting another starting pitcher who is younger. It’s going to see how Heyward finishes off this season.
I think even if Heyward finished 300 with 30 hrs he still wouldn’t opt out of the deal. I like having him on the Cubs, but his contact hurts. I think any team would be leery of handing him 80 million plus for 4 years if he were to test the open market, even with a great year.
Yep. Jason Heyward is not a $21-22M per year player. With his current production and continued Gold Glove defense in RF he would be worth $10-11M per season in the final 4 years of his contract from 2020-2023 when he will be 30-33 years old.
Heyward’s trade value is at it’s highest in 3 years so trade him now. Still need to kick in some cash to get a deal done. Nice guy, good teammate, hard worker, good with the media. Just not worth around 21 million per year for another 4 years.
You’d have to think that if the Cubs traded him and ate half of his contract, someone would take him. He’s definitely worth 10 million year, at least with how he is playing right now. Of course, teams might doubt that he will maintain this level of production. Either way, I think Epstein could work out some sort of salary dump. I don’t think they’d net anything in return other than another team eating some of his contract.
With that being said–who would take over in right field? The Cubs still want to win this year (regardless of how unlikely that seems). They don’t have any legitimate outfield prospects at AAA and their current outfield outside of Heyward isn’t prodcing. I’m not terribly opposed to them shipping some pieces away to try to reset and lock in some guys like Baez, Bryant, and Contreras, I just don’t think that will happen.
If Happ was playing well, he could come up and play right, but that just isn’t happening. We’ve reached this strange point where Heyward is actually one of the better players on the team, which is good.
So your answer is to trade Heyward, the most consistent player on offense and defense, while letting Baez, Schwarber and Contreras swing for the fences EVERY AT BAT? Maybe it’s time to hold THOSE players accountable for not being team players and applaud Heyward for his contributions this year. Oh that probably makes too much sense.
Lots of these opinion pieces lately on MLBTR which don’t have anything to do with trade candidates, free agents, drafts, etc. I’m not sure how I feel about it. Good content but is really out of place on a news site. Especially considering at least a few MLB players seem to read this site
If the Cubs were smart they would try to flip him NOW. His value won’t get any higher.
He’s having an ok season for a full time starter and at that salary they’re forced to play him full time. Nothing to get too excited about, still not living up to the contract and not showing enough promise that anybody else would be willing to take on that contract either.