Judging solely by Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard’s decline in performance this year, this summer doesn’t look like the time to trade the 26-year-old. But going by Syndergaard’s pre-2019 numbers and the amount of club control he has remaining, Thor would warrant a haul leading up to the trade deadline. For almost the entire season thus far, there haven’t been rumblings on MLBTR’s pages about a possible Syndergaard swap. The rumor mill has begun picking up since Tuesday, however.
With the deadline exactly three weeks away, the Brewers, Astros and Padres are among those who have demonstrated interest in Syndergaard. It’s probably fair to say even more teams will eye Syndergaard, if they haven’t already, though the Mets don’t seem as if they’re shopping him aggressively.
Little has gone right this year for New York, which has stumbled to a record (40-50) that betters only the Marlins’ mark in the National League. Contention’s highly unlikely for this year’s Mets, but unlike with impending free-agent starter Zack Wheeler, they shouldn’t necessarily feel urgency to part with Syndergaard this summer.
Syndergaard, who’s making an appealing $6MM salary, is eligible for arbitration two more times after 2019. Therefore, the Mets could keep him in hopes they and he bounce back during that two-year span. Alternatively, the club could retain Syndergaard through this season, see if he returns to his typical form in the second half and then solicit offers during the winter. At that point, teams unable to win what should be a hotly contested derby for free agency’s top starter, Gerrit Cole, might view Syndergaard as an enticing consolation prize.
On a per-inning basis, Syndergaard has been a Cole-caliber producer since he broke into the league. Between his 2015 debut and last year, Syndergaard parlayed his high-90s heat into an ace-like 2.93 ERA/2.66 FIP with 9.95 K/9, 2.01 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent groundball rate over 518 innings. But injuries limited him at times, including during a 154 1/3-inning campaign in 2018, and they’ve reared their head again this year. Syndergaard missed time earlier in the season with a hamstring strain, though he returned after missing about two weeks. He has not, however, logged a quality start in any of his three outings since. Overall, Syndergaard has paled in comparison to his 2015-18 self, having notched a 4.68 ERA/3.98 FIP, 8.6 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, and a 46.7 percent grounder mark across 105 2/3 frames.
While Syndergaard’s continuing to throw hard, his aforementioned K/9, career-low chase rate, career-high contact rate and personal-worst swinging-strike percentage show he’s fooling fewer hitters than ever. On the other hand, Syndergaard’s still a Statcast darling whose 34-point spread between his weighted on-base average/xwOBA against (.314/.280) suggest bad luck has played a part in his issues preventing runs. The fact that Syndergaard’s tasked with pitching in front of a dreadful defense also hasn’t done him any favors.
All things considered, the Mets are facing an interesting decision on Syndergaard as zero hour closes in on July 31. If the Mets were to make Syndergaard available by then, he’d perhaps end up as the most popular player on the block. What should they do?
(Poll link for app users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dixon Miaz
His value isn’t exactly at a high. He needs to show he can be an effective consistent frontline starter. Trade him next season if his numbers improve. I’m sorry I may be stupid. Be free to tell me why I’m wrong. I’ll listen and learn.
petrie000
This off-season is probably more likely. Given the general conservative trend pervading baseball deals it’s unlikely they’ll get a great mid-season deal.
He’s still Thor and he’s still younger than most free agents, so somebody will pay a good price for him, there’s just too many negatives right now to get somebody to overpay
Of course this being the Mets they’ll probably be the ones to panic and squander his value trying to get major league talent for him instead of prospects…
bencole
You’re right.
Willy Mays
Well his vakue is still pretty high just not Jacob Degrom high.The problem is one more injujry would killThors value.If youdon’t trade him and he goes down forget about him as a big time chip
of9376
His numbers are extremely similar to Gerrit Cole’s when he was traded. Prob looking at a similar return for Thor if they make him available.
Willy Mays
It seems Syndegards era is almost a half run higher then Coles was and Cole did not have his injury history so I really don’t see the comparison. Also since Thors trade comes during the season it changes the dynamics. Truthfuly Thor comes with a worse history when you include his injury problems but would probably get more in a trade because of the timing if traded now
xSpecBx
Similar to the Archer trade, I could see a team trading for him based on his potential to be who he was and has been in the past. He is still young and some team may think they have the staff to fix whatever is may be wrong with his delivery. Look at Justin Verlander. Everyone thought he was done a couple years ago and than he went to the Astros and is back to being a top pitcher. If a team with a really advanced analytical department thinks they know what the issue is they may be willing to take a chance.
Willy Mays
I agree with you. If you look at one of my comments I said he would get back a top 50 prospect easy. However you do Thor a huge disservice in comparing him to Chris Archer Archer has not been under a 4 ERA since 2015 Noah Syndegard has a lifetime ERA of 3.23. Syndegard had 2 years where his ERA was under 3. I don’t like the Mets but a Thor trade especially during the season would net them a big haul Teams would be lining up for Syndegard .You’d have him for the stretch run and 2 years of team control at a very reasonable cost
Harry999
What would happen if the Yankees got him? They would be over joyed and would not like to trade anything good like always do! If they want Noah now they would have to give up a few bats for him!!!
Jerryred
to rangera for willie Calhoun, hans crouse, Julio pablo martinez and another pic prospect
bencole
The Rangers aren’t going to give you a return near that though.
throwinched10
He hasn’t been consistent enough or healthy enough to justify that return.
petrie000
Why would the Rangers do that? They’re much more than 1 starting pitcher away from contention
Jerryred
actually they are already contending just dont have the pitching other than minor and lynn
bencole
Can’t get Calhoun straight up for Syndergaard. The other two maybe, providing the third pitching prospect is more of a lottery ticket.
bravesfan
Yes, to the braves, for next to nothing please.. thank you lol…………..
reflect
It’s time for the Mets to trade Jeff Wilpon.
humphrey x boegarts
Who would take him though?
robluca21
Marlins fans. At least he spends money and sort of tries
Willy Mays
Did you say Wilpon spends money?He owns a team from NY and spends like his team is from Texas Rangers or Milwaukee.Brewers. When you take in the fact that the Mets this year will get back about 20 million of Cespedes’ contract and are getting 20 million from Seattle in the Cano trade there real payroll is at about 120 million. That is a ridiculous amount for a NY team
king beas
Gore for syndergaard and if the padres wants more gore for syndergaard Lugo and a lottery ticket arm
bencole
There absolutely no chance in the world you can get Gore in a Syndergaard deal, no matter how much you add (I mean, unless it’s DeGrom, but that won’t happen). Not even worth dreaming about, and I don’t even like the Mets.
saavedra
Gore or Patino are going nowhere, unless it’s for Degrom, however, I dont think the padres would do such deal. Try top 8 and below for a package for Thor.
Codeeg
Rather than trade the ace player who is underperforming on a meh team why isn’t the 31 year old pitcher who’d command a greater return being talked about?
Lennon's Dad
This wasn’t enough?
mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/mlbtr-poll-should-mets-…
dswaim
He’s due up next for TJS. Hasn’t had it yet. Id go ahead and trade him now or this offseason but you have to get a huge return
robluca21
How did you gain access to his medical records?
Willy Mays
Really so I guess all great pitchers have TJS. Scherzer nope Verlander nope Sabbathia nope.I guess they didn’t throw harder enough lol Maybe it will come when there 45 or 50 right
saavedra
How about Thor for Xavier Edwards, Edward olivares and Blake Hunt?
They are all having decent to great seasons and are the ranked no.8, 18 and 25 prospects in SD, respectively. I would consider this an overpay from SD, but not by much.
Show Me Your Tatis
Careful trading Edwards. There’s some serious helium there.
saavedra
i agree. but you gotta give in order to take. maybe switch edwards for another top 10 guy?
bencole
Yeah Edwards wouldn’t be in that deal most likely. Maybe if Syndergaard has been good and healthy. I think Baez could be a reasonable target, along with another guy in that territory.
Show Me Your Tatis
I know you have to give to get. What I’m saying is Edwards’ stock will be significantly higher a year from now.
Willy Mays
I think you guys are delusional.Cole coming off a mediocre year got a trade offer from the Yankees of Clint Frazier who was rated as a top 30 MLB prospect.During the season even with his current problems Thor would get at least that. Also Frazier was MLB ready. Edwards isn’t currently ranked nearly that high and the other two guys listed are crapshoots. In a trade just based on his past numbers and his stuff Thor would bring back a top 50 prospect easy.I love when you guys said yeah but remove Edwards.Imagine the headlines. Syndegard traded for basically no one.That would go over big in NY
saavedra
Thor hasnt been any good. Right now I honestly think he’s worth no more than a top 100 and 2 decent prospects, which is what I stated. Have you seen the seasons they are having? Edwards will be top 50 by this time next year. I sincerely believe it’s an overpay for current Thor.
jbigz12
They’re going to keep him if the best teams are offering is a Logan Allen or Michel Baez as the headliner. That’s just the reality of it. Baez is already a reliever. He’ll probably be a dominant reliever but he’s a reliever nonetheless. You can’t trade Thor for a package headlined by a relief pitcher. Now I could potentially see BVW taking Urias and Baez for him solely because he’s interested in turning this around ASAP for fear of being canned.
saavedra
I don’t think anyone would offer a top 20 and a top 70 for Thor, let alone a 500 team. At that point you offer an extra piece and ask for DeGrom. A top 50 and more chips seems more realistic to me.
king beas
Mets would consider that no deal
saavedra
the Mets would be dumb not to make this deal, IMO.
hockeyjohn
I would think that other teams could beat that offer.
saavedra
It could happen, it all depends on the market.
king beas
Mets would have to be blown away. A fringe top 100 and two guys who have a good chance to never become anything would have them just hold onto him
saavedra
have you seen their numbers? especially Edwards, who will likely be top 50 by this time next year. i now think it’s way too much for Thor.
king beas
An over pay would be 3 top 100
saavedra
an overpay would be 1 top 50. 3 top 100 is day dreaming.
T.T.P.
Interesting if they trade him to the Twins
BravesNomad
I could see the Astros being in on Thor. Houston had good success with JV and Thor could slot in behind Cole this yr and replace him for the next 2.
ElMagoN9ne
If the astros can get him they are not only winning the world series they’re gonna go 11-0
They not sure who the astros have but if anyone can pull it off its Houston.
Oxford Karma
I’dkeep him til trade deadline next year if they aren’t in it, unless someone overpays like the Archer trade. Ramos, Gsellman to the a’s. Frazier and Wheeler to Rays. Both teams could give you back some prospects, everyone wins.
bencole
Red Sox probably the team most likely to overpay for a SP
baseball10
Yes, before be becomes Matt Harvey
Show Me Your Tatis
By not trading Thor, they are banking on:
1. Him staying off the IL
2. Him returning to form results-wise when healthy
3. Him doing enough of that to make up for some of his remaining club control and the right to use him in the 2019 postseason evaporating
FSF
“Listen to offers and consider moving him for a huge return”
This is kind of a silly option. Shouldn’t that be the case for just about every ballplayer in MLB. No player is untouchable, nor should they be.
Show Me Your Tatis
Acuña?
stan lee the manly
So you wouldn’t move Acuna for Gore, Urias, Paddack, Machado, plus cash for the contracts? Nobody is untouchable if the return is big enough.
Show Me Your Tatis
Machado being in that package makes it worse, not better. And no, I don’t think the Braves say yes without his inclusion.
mets1536
If they TRADE HIM it will be to the Astros, or Padres a team with a DEEP FARM
jkurk_22
I hate when people say teams should get huge returns for players like this. Sure couple years ago when he was pitching great, of course you get a huge return then, but hope for a return to greatness is not worth a huge return. Hope for a return to greatness is worth a few so so prospects and a lotto ticket or two. I’m just saying if I’m giving up a big return, I’m getting a sure thing. Not a maybe. A maybe gets a maybe return. And sure they probably won’t trade him for a maybe return and that’s their decision. Good for them. Although, looking at that team I’d say a full tear down should be in the cards. Going for it has gotten them no where the last several years and the Braves, Phillies, and Nats aren’t going anywhere. The only guys they should potentially keep to build around are Alonso and Degrom. Although trading one of them would net them that true huge prospect load
Rob Finkmeyer
Mcneil is a hiittng machine, leading the majors, the mets should keep him, dude makes things happen every game.
mgrap84
Man i thought being an Orioles fan was tough
king beas
At least the Mets don’t have 20 awful players on their mlb roster
krillin89
I know the Mets probably would need to be absolutely blown away by a divisional rival, but let’s say hypothetically they were not in the same division. I wonder if a prospect of the Kolby Allard type could be a headliner that the Mets would consider
king beas
Why would the Mets take a deal with a non top 100 as a headliner
krillin89
He was one last year. I’m just trying to gauge where the Mets are at on discussions
king beas
They want an overlay meaning multiple top 100 not former top prospects or guys who’s fallen off the list