You remember Eric Sogard. He once rode his rec spec-chic good looks and charmingly scrappy play to internet stardom, nearly winning the memorable “Face of MLB” contest through a thrilling hijacking effort launched by the crafty A’s faithful.
The good times didn’t last in Oakland. Sogard was a solid contributor in 2013, but his high-contact, low-power approach fizzled as he turned in consecutive sub-70 wRC+ seasons at the plate. There was a second act in Milwaukee in 2017, when Sogard turned in a remarkable combination of 45 walks against 37 strikeouts despite a near-total absence of power (.104 ISO). But he collapsed in the following campaign, carrying a ghastly .134/.241/.165 slash in 113 plate appearances for the Brewers.
Thus it was with little fanfare that the Blue Jays inked Sogard to a minors pact this past offseason. He was a solid depth piece, destined to open the year at Triple-A. At most, Jays fans might have hoped they’d finally have an organizational replacement for fan-favorite Ryan Goins, a utility infielder who was feted as a hero upon his return to Toronto. He had been dumped unceremoniously the winter prior after appearing in a career-high 143 games, sneaking the ball over the right field wall nine times and producing 62 ribbies. (That last state is the one that Jays announcer Buck Martinez chose to support his questionable assertion, in the above-linked video, that Goins had a “great year” in 2017. Goins slashed .237/.286/.356.)
As it turns out, Sogard was called upon by the Jays when youngster Lourdes Gurriel Jr. got the yips. Sogard had hit well at Triple-A, mostly by hounding young pitchers into walks. He drew seven free passes against just four strikeouts in 38 plate appearances while socking a dinger and a pair of doubles among his eight base knocks.
There was nothing remarkable about any of this … until the ghost of Goins inhabited Sogard’s spectacles. Those nine long balls Goins hit in his legend-making campaign? Well, Sogard has matched him already in nearly half the tries. The 33-year-old journeyman is now through 261 plate appearances of .294/.364/.478 hitting in Toronto, handily topping even mid-prime Goins in output. He’s hitting well against righties but doing even more damage against same-handed pitching (137 wRC+).
Just what is going on here? Is it remotely sustainable? Is Sogard a legit deadline trade chip for the rebuilding Toronto team?
This Goins-Sogard thing has had far longer legs than I anticipated when I sat down to write this, but it will help illustrate one more point. In large part, it seems Goins just happened to loft a few over the course of the season. His nine homers averaged 400 feet with a 27.6 degree average launch angle. Otherwise, he averaged only an 8.3 degree launch angle that season and has typically sat lower even than that.
Sogard? Much as with his predecessor, every single one of his homers has gone down the right field line — two-thirds of them at the Rogers Centre. They’re likewise flying on fairly lofty flight paths — moreso, in fact. Sogard’s mean dinger is taking a parabolic path of 29.6 degrees, placing him 122nd on the list of all home run hitters in the majors this year, sitting comfortably among between a bunch of double-digit dinger men.
That’s about where the similarities end. Sogard is producing some true wall-scrapers. His long balls are averaging just 380 feet, good for 399th of 452 players registered by Statcast. They have left the bat at a meager 96.5 mph average exit velo. That’s just 445th of 456 players in the database; you have to run up the board to Yuli Gurriel (14 homers at a 99.4 mph average exit velo) to find another hitter with more long balls.
The baseball may not be juiced, per se, but it sure is flying like never before. And Sogard is taking full advantage, maxing out his meager power to the breaking point. He currently owns a .184 isolated power mark — more than double his career average (.090) — despite a meek 20.7% hard-hit rate, 85.3 mph average exit velocity, and grand total of three barreled balls this season. Oh, and he’s also sending the ball skyward like never before, with a hefty 19.2 degree average launch angle.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Sogard absolutely can’t keep things going like this. But Rogers Centre has borne witness to more long balls than any other MLB stadium this year. The Jays’ pitchers are playing their part in that, to be sure. But let’s just say that teams weighing a move for Sogard will want to do some ballpark dimension overlays before pulling the trigger.
Even if many of his dingers would’ve snuck out elsewhere, it seems wise to bake in a healthy amount of anticipated regression. Sogard does possess undeniable mastery of the strike zone and outstanding contact ability. He carries a 3.7% swinging-strike rate this year and sits under four percent over his career. This isn’t a player selling out to put the ball over the wall. But it’s also not one who’s newly stinging the sphere.
Sogard, a poster boy? In a sense, yeah. Teams considering him will need to closely parse the changes to the broader state of play and try to assess how he’ll fit in moving forward. Can Sogard keep tucking balls into the front rows of the right field bleachers? That depends not only upon a look at Sogard, but other matters. Can pitchers find a way to adjust to these universal changes? Will the baseball undergo further physical change? Likewise, other deadline targets — those performing well and those struggling to adapt, hitters and pitchers alike — will be viewed with one eye on the ever-flying long ball.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
iplay_in_traffic
With the balls being juiced and all, I can’t tell whose numbers are propped up and who has legitimately improved.
It’s hard to guess which pitchers have legitimately gotten worse or which ones are effected by the change.
VonPurpleHayes
If the balls are juiced league wide, then all the pitchers who have been affected by the change have gotten worse. It’s not like they’re changing back.
iplay_in_traffic
that’s the problem. How do you identify who is pitching worse due to the balls being juiced, or due to lack of ability. Just another variable to think about when trying to assess some of these guys…
DodgerNation
Does it matter though? It’s not like the MLB is going to unjuice the baseballs. It’s the pitcher’s job to adjust to this and keep the ball in the yard.
jlhornbe
Amen iplay!
TheBoatmen
If balls are juiced how come Billy Hamilton can’t hit 1 HR?
DarkSide830
nerd power!
Not Xabial
This whole article is amazing.
Jeff Todd
Appreciate it!
zcoughlin2 2
Soon, we’re going to have to adjust what we know about home runs. Double digits is going to be commonplace, and a guy with 10-15 homers isn’t going to be that special due to whatever has happened to the baseballs. All of our metrics will have to change as all offensive numbers climb, assuming baseball doesn’t revert back to the previous iteration of baseballs.
snotrocket
Maple roids?
$crewBaLL
look its Clark Kent
OilCanLloyd
I wouldn’t mind if the Jays kept him. He does influence the younger player from what I can see when I watch on tv. Always chatting with the kids.
DVail1979
Might as well keep him honestly … as much as I root for him I doubt Toronto will get back enough in a deal to justify moving him
jdgoat
I hope he’s the backup infielder next year. It really is amazing how much of a leader he has been. He been pretty much the only one to put up professional at bats day in and day out as well the entire year. He would’ve probably been quite the player if he was born 20-30 years earlier lol.
padam
Chicks dig the long ball. But his power must be coming from the sunflower seed tattooed on his forehead (see pic). I’m sure someone will deal for him at the deadline.
its_happening
The real question is which contending team needs Eric Sogard. I’m sure they’d like to have Sogard, but need? Unless there is a need by at least 1 team there won’t be much of a return for Toronto. However, a nice small investment.
Next year Sogard will not have a true starting position in Toronto. He’d be a 10th man. At this point the team needs to find out if Urena can be the backup infielder and give Bo a real shake at SS or else he moves to 2B and Biggio moves elsewhere. Same with Vlad at 3B. He has 1 more year to show he can make strides defensively or else he’s going to 1B/DH.
As nice has Sogard has been, Jays need to find a trade partner and hope between now and the deadline there is a need.
citizen
If Sogard is not traded, Tony Clark will file a grievance with the union saying a Sogard trade is not marketed enough.
jaysfan77
Nice of you to bash anything to do with the Jays organization. Wow classy much? Typical American attitude however.
A good season is much more than home runs and launch angles, especially for a middle infielder, it’s playing good defence in different positions, being a good teammate, hitting the ball the other way, having good at bats, mentoring younger players, being a good teammate, being a pro, Etc etc gee whiz. One of the more idiotic posts on MLB trade rumours ever. Let me guess…you never played past little league and realized your career was destined to be writing about how everyone who plays sucks?
Jeff Todd
I have no interest whatsoever in bashing the Jays, least of which because they play in Canada.
I can assure you I do not hold a “typical American attitude” on this or any other matter. I think for myself, thank you .
I focused here on the matter of home runs because it is the one thing that has changed for Sogard.
Oh, and I played through high school and in decent quality adult wood bat leagues, not that it matters.
TheBoatmen
Also a Jays fan and Canadian, didn’t take take your article as bashing the Jays or Canada. I am sure he will apologize later. You mentioned about Jays pitchers being a large part of Rogers Center bring #1 for HR’s but you didn’t mention about the Jays HR’s. I believe it was on MLBTR maybe it was somewhere else that the Jays lead the league in HR’s since the middle of May.
humphrey x boegarts
Awesome article Jeff, one of the best written sport pieces I’ve read. I really enjoyed reading it.
its_happening
I didn’t see Canada bashing either.
Balls have been flying out at Rogers Centre. I’ve played there in exhibition games; the ball carries very well. Some also attribute the recent surge to the CF flight deck. They used to have windows to cover the restaurant. Some believe the elimination of the windows have allowed balls to carry better, especially with the dome open. Not sure if that is true but the numbers help make that case.
Rogers Centre should push the fences back to the lower facade now that they do not share the field with the CFL team. Revamp the bullpen and move it between the current spot and the scoreboard. They have the space.
jaysfan77
I’m not sure what the need was to include Ryan Goins or Buck Martinez, Buck calls every game, and is around the team for the season. Ryan was known for his never give up and at times spectacular defence, and he was always hustling, which is why the fans appreciated him so much. Sure, he wasn’t very good at the plate, but that season in limited at bats he did drive in quite a few runs.
If your going to be a non believer in Eric Sogards good season FOR HIM , sure, convey his stats and that facts, instead of throwing former players and managers and broadcasters u dear the bus.
its_happening
Jaysfan – I’ll agree with you on Goins. Metrics are unfair to him (and Roberto Alomar BTW), but we know how great defensively he was. Jays were better with him at SS than Jose Reyes. Goins at 2B was marvelous. He deserved better from the organization. In fact he’s hitting well in AAA and should be given another look at the big league level. Heck, couldn’t be any worse than Descalo or Owings as a backing INF.
Knocking Goins for driving in runs is insanity. That’s today’s generation. Unfortunately those who knock RBIs have been brainwashed. Every team needs players with the ability to get that runner home from 3rd base. Ask every Oakland team that’s ever lost in the ALDS.
jaysfan77
That season was actually Goins best offensive season I believe, even though it wasn’t great, it was for him, and he played superb defence all over the diamond. He just never seemed to develop a patient approach at the plate and tried to pull the ball at times, but those Jays teams were actually known for doing way too much of that.
btuck
I’m sorry you had to respond to that. There were no signs of bias in your writing. Based on historical data, there is no reason to trade for Sogard, yet o can’t help but hope there is sone Scooter Gennet in his story. I hope his success continues, but if he can’t keep it up, he is still a very healthy presence around the team. His help to the baby Jays hitters appears to be constant and immense. Proof will come if/when Tellez figures out the strike zone.
jimmertee
Great article.
jaysfan77
I’d just like to say to everyone that, whatever team you cheer for, who ever used to manage your team or broadcasts for your team, or used to play for your team that wasn’t as good as Mike Trout well, they all sucked, and still suck, just look at their launch angles and their home run distances.
raydh
Even though the launch angles and exit velocity numbers aren’t good, and the home runs may barely clear the fence, these home runs count the same as upper-deck shots. Sogard is on a cheap deal, producing good numbers, apparently being a team leader. Why would the Jays trade him? So they can get back a player who will probably never make the majors?
ElMagoN9ne
Doubt any teams want him. He’s a judy hitter
jimmertee
The ball is juiced, the Rogers centre is juiced for hr’s, Sogard is having a career year at 33 years old.
It is not likely to repeat next year or even in the second half of this season. If possible, trade him now.