Owners of a major league-worst 30-68 record, the Tigers figure to be one of baseball’s most active sellers prior to next Wednesday’s trade deadline. Three of their players – starter Matthew Boyd, reliever Shane Greene and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos – stand among the most discussed trade chips in baseball. But they’re likely not the only Tigers who are on other teams’ radars as the deadline approaches. The club also has an underrated reliever, right-hander Buck Farmer, it could market.
As is the case with Boyd, who’s under control for the next few years, there isn’t necessarily any urgency to deal Farmer. He’s earning a minimal salary right now and won’t make his first of three potential trips through the arbitration process until the offseason. That said, Farmer’s a soon-to-be 29-year-old on a team that’s not contending now and won’t in the immediate future, which makes him a sensible piece for Detroit to consider parting with in the next few days.
Farmer has been a member of the Tigers since they chose the ex-Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket in the fifth round of the 2013 draft. Although he wasn’t a particularly high selection, Farmer climbed up the team’s system to become the Tigers’ second-ranked prospect at Baseball America after the 2014 season, during which he briefly debuted in the bigs. At the time, BA contended Farmer could become a useful back-of-the-rotation starter, though it noted the Tigers may decide he’s better off in the bullpen.
Five years later, Farmer has indeed found his niche in Detroit’s relief corps. After a few seasons of posting mediocre to worse numbers as a starter and reliever, Farmer has morphed into a pleasant surprise this year. Farmer has logged a 3.70 ERA across 41 1/3 innings (45 appearances, one start) thus far. That’s not going to blow anyone away, but Farmer’s strikeout and walk rates (10.67 K/9, 2.83 BB/9) are impressive, as is his 13.3 percent swinging-strike rate, while his 3.20 FIP, 3.36 SIERA and 3.37 xFIP all suggest he has deserved better in the run prevention department. He’s generating groundballs at a 51.4 percent clip, which is exactly 11 percent higher than the GB rate he recorded over a full season of relief work last year. Along with inducing grounders at a below-average rate over 69 1/3 frames then, Farmer put up just 7.4 K/9 against 5.32 BB/9, helping lead to an unspectacular 4.15 ERA/4.46 FIP.
Like last year, Farmer has continued to fire four-seam fastballs at around 95 mph. However, Farmer has somewhat changed his pitch mix since then, per Statcast. He utilized his four-seamer approximately 57 percent of the time in 2018, but it’s down to just over 48 percent now. Meantime, Farmer’s slider usage has climbed significantly – from 17 percent to 27 – while his changeup reliance has continued to hover around the mid-20 percent range. The adjustment to Farmer’s repertoire has worked out. While batters have destroyed his fastball (.436 weighted on-base average, .422 xwOBA), they’ve done next to nothing against his slider (.240/.148) and change (.224/.271). Thanks largely to his hittable heater, Farmer ranks in the basement of the league (its sixth percentile) in hard-hit rate against. Still, his quality offspeed offerings have enabled Farmer to limit hitters to a respectable .320 wOBA/.313 xwOBA overall.
In Farmer, an acquiring team wouldn’t exactly be landing the most exciting option prior to the deadline. Nevertheless, Farmer’s an effective, cheap, controllable reliever who has helped the Tigers this year and would likely aid a contender. It would make sense for Detroit to consider selling high on Farmer in the coming days, and it would be logical for better teams to come calling.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
good point Conner. never even crossed my minf.
Experts on MLBTR comment section::
Don’t trade for Boyd. He is unproven and has no track record despite having a solid year.
Don’t trade for Bumgarner. He is proven, has a track record, is having a decent year, but he is not good anymore!
agree and agree. problem is, that leaves the SP market really thin. you have to hope another team gets each so your targets have less competetors for them.
Boyd isn’t having a solid year. He had 2 good months and has been shaky at best the other 2 months.
As for Bum, he likely isn’t available for trade anyway.
im sure anyone in SF is available for the right price. they can say they are buying all they want, but at some point an offer gets too good to refuse.
I looked at Boyd’s stats. . . He actually has less stikeouts per game it seems, When he was having his good first two months. The following two have been poor I think. With tons of Ks. Seems he’s pumping fastballs. Giving up home runs. Also pitching in an extreme pitchers park. . . Don’t know the tigers outfield defense. But this guy is gonna get Better. ? Pitching for a contender. For blue chip prospects. . . I don’t think there is a slam dunk with this guy. Plus I think a trade with him having more years till free agency, Ups the anti. I wouldn’t pay more… He still might be a project… If the price is low enough. . .
No chance Tigers take any “lowball offers” for Boyd. Some teams want a very big something for nothing and/or unproven “lottery tickets”, and scrub prospects they don’t want…
Tigers have some very good, experienced scouts also…They discovered and signed Cabrera with the Marlins…They took a chance on JD Martinez when he washed out with Houston….
Give them some credit…
Cabrera was already a premier player before the Tigers traded for him. Wasn’t much to scout there…….
Again, your lack of knowledge of baseball and players is revealed, again..
Tigers GM Al Avila and his former boss, Dave Dombrowski, ,discovered Cabrera when they both ran the Marlins front office and built the Marlins into a WS championship team.
They signed Cabrera as a teenager out of Venezuela..
Those two thoughts can co-exist. Bumgarner has a track record of declining velocity and peripherals. Boyd doesn’t have anything that approaches his performance this year. His top K/9 in his entire career was in A ball and that was just over 10.
Boyd is having a #3 starter season (which he is on a good team) and Detroit is asking for an ace return.
The Pirates overpaying for Chris Archer last year continued the trend of desperation at the deadline.
Someone — despite all analytics and logic — will overpay for Boyd.
Bums isn’t moving.
Boyd would be the #1 Starter on the Yankees/
Boyd would be a #2 or #3 on the Astros..
Depends on the team,
Again, someone who either works for the Yankees and is trying to drive Boyd’s trade value down
OR a troll who has little or no knowledge of baseball..
It’s funny how every analysis of a hitter in these comment sections includes WAR, yet it’s never mentioned for these pitchers. Boyd has a 2.8 WAR, had a 2.1 last year. He was good last year and is great this year. His trajectory is in right direction and he was a well regarded prospect.
tigers can have drew anderson for him
See Dayn Perry article rating Boyd as the top trade chip at this trade deadline…
Dayn’s also buddies with a certain sports writer who was arrested last week. His judgement isn’t quite up to par.
Don’t know what you are talking about.
Trying to tar an honest, hardworking baseball expert with fake news, fake facts unsubstantiated made up rumors
that have zero to do with baseball?!
Thanks Dayn. I see you keep hawking your crappy columns. Keep your hands in your pockets to stay out of trouble.
Interesting, especially since Matthew Boyd is arguably the most overrated trade chip this season.
Boyd is listed by many baseball experts as the top trade target who would garner the biggest return this trade deadline despite what the unknowledgeable trolls post.
Not on any lists I’ve seen. . . It’s Will Smith. Bumgarner. Stroman. . . Now possibly Thor.
This guy’s on the list. Just not the number one trade target. . .
And? Your post pretty much defined was it means to be “overrated”. A guy who has a career 4.85 ERA, has a 4.07 this season and suddenly he’s a breakout star? Why because he’s got a phenomenal K/BB ratio? OMG, Trade the farm!
Arguing that he’s not an overrated trade chip because “experts” say he’ll bring a haul, doesn’t make you knowledgeable. I realize what experts are saying and I disagree, which is why I think he’s extremely overrated as a trade chip. Trading multiple prospects for Matthew Boyd is going to put a club over this year?! Are you kidding me?
Not sure you really know what the definition of a “troll” is either.
Are you suggesting giving up over 4 runs per 9 innings won’t get it done in the playoffs?
Ok fine, Boyd is overrated. You twisted my arm.
Again why does everyone reference his ERA? If you were all arguing hitters based on their BA you would be laughed at. Boyd’s FIP is the same as Stromans. He is near the top of baseball in K/BB.
Anyone that thinks Boyd is a top target isn’t an expert. He outpitched his ability for 2 months and now the real Boyd is back.
See that last start?
Either an employee of a competitor and interested party like Yanks or Astros etc. trying to drive down Boyd’s trade value.OR youi have not been watching Boyd pitch.
..
Boyd has been going 6-7 innings with douible digit strikeouts just about every game..
Boyd dueled and out pitched Phillies ace aaron Nola.
Said young Phillies star Rhys Hoskins after the game interview
“Boyd is going be a big star in this league (AL).”
“He would look great in a Phillies uni”..
Just about every pennant contending team and even non contending teams like the Padres want Boyd and are scouting him.
The only negatives I am reading about Boyd are frustrated fans on these boards who know less about baseball than the MLB Media, the players, the GMs, the scouts, the experts etc…
who are all raving about Boyd..
Everyone says how overrated he is, but for the Tigers fans that watch everyday know he’s special. I think he was a late bloomer, and would be more than happy holding him over any other trade chip we have. I believe he would be an outstanding closer.
Not saying he’s overrated, per se. Just that he’s overrated as a trade chip, considering what is being talked about for a potential return.
I agree, but Detroit would be foolish to sell lower than what the market indicates. The story should read – Detroit wants to keep him, unless someone is willing to over pay.
Paxton gives up 7 in 4 innings. Yankees might have some trouble in the playoffs against a team that can hit. Twins the past couple days, now the red sox.
Yankee fans have assured everyone on this website they are fine. They own the American League and own every team. They have great overall records since the 1920’s. We cannot forget that. It all matters in the end.
Uh, … not happening.
As a Mets fan I would trade for Boyd,Greene and Farmer for Dom Smith,Gimenez,Matz and Familia here’s how it can work: Miggy needs to DH so Dom Smith takes over at 1b,Gimenez can play ss,Matz takes over for Boyd and a change of scenery Familia can take over for Greene. The Mets get 2 BP pieces and a SP.
Extend Wheeler and trade Syndergaard to LAD for (c) Will Smith,Pederson and May.
2020 rotation: deGrom,Wheeler,Boyd,May and Kay
C- W.Smith, 1b-Alonso 2b-Cano SS-Rosario 3b-JD Davis LF- Cespedes CF- Pederson RF- Conforto
This lineup is because I know the Mets most likely can’t trade Cano or Cespedes
kind of one sided deal favoring the Mets don’t ya think?!
Tigers would never go for that..
Most proposed trades from any team fan are one sided almost by nature,
That’s not even close to a fair deal… the Tigers are getting crushed on that one lol
it’s an al avila trade man he’d probably accept it
Baseball experts say Boyd is the crown jewel of the mlb trade market..
” If the Tigers do opt to flip Boyd before July 31, then he might command the biggest haul of anyone. That’s with good reason.”
Dayn Perry…
cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-why-matt…
Crown tool maybe. Crown jewel will be the pitcher traded to the World Series champions. Maybe Boyd drives an electric car or is a vegan or something that drives the baseball writers wild. The love fest for him is a bit much.
I would hope the Tigers not only explore other team’s farm system, I hope they heavily scout established but underused MLB players much like players DD acquired when he traded for Placido Polanco and Carlos Guillen.
Players like Tommy La Stella (LAA) and Danny Santana (TEX) broke out when given a chance for full time work. To me, they’re worth trading Nick Castellanos for, even on contending teams.
Tigers ae not going to get much back for those three, ouch
BS
Every announcers worst enemy, Fu*k Barmer.
Would love the braves to go get farmer. Hometown boy. Played against him as a kid, heck of a player then
He’s really not much of a trade chip… I mean plenty of bullpen needy teams would be glad to have him but he’s nothing more than a solid middle reliever. He’s not a closer or even 8th inning guy really – he’s decent but certainly not a big difference maker.
When u have a bullpen like the braves, he’s a difference maker lol
I don’t buy into Boyd’s success this late in his career….he has never shown he has TOR ability and he only holds the Ace title by default on a poor team….most rotations he sits at 3 or 4….he gets Ks for fantasy owners etc but he isn’t a true Ace or even a solid 2….he is in my opinion….a poor mans Robbie Ray…..well said….thank you
Maybe this is the guy wheelin and dealin dombrowski gets for the Red Sox
Dombrowski,he gutted Detroit’s farm team(s).now he’s doing it in Boston.
Furthermore to think he is worth a young star like Verdugo, Riley, Senzel or another young player on the rise is ridiculous….not only is he not worth those types of players….the Tigers are not going to compete for 4-5 years so getting a player that is already a proven rising star would be a mistake….they need to acquire guys still 2-3 years away from the majors to line up with their window of contention….the Tigers should be happy with 1 top 75 prospect and a couple prospects outside the top 100….I don’t even get how they are asking for a young star….Albies….Torres…..and the guys I mentioned above could fetch much better pitchers than Boyd….lol
Really, in this market? Who?
When I said those young stars could fetch much better pitchers than Boyd…I meant just that….I didn’t mean this year as not much else is available….I was saying that why would the Braves move Albies or Riley for instance on a Boyd trade this year when they can go after a better pitcher next year that may be available….or they simply don’t trade their young star for a pitcher or anyone else for that matter….Dodgers don’t have to move Verdugo and the Braves don’t have to move Albies….these teams are in the captains seat….they don’t need to trade their very controllable young stars for anyone no less a mediocre 3rd starter…..good luck Tigers with that demand….they will get an offer like Peraza and Ervin plus a low prospect from the Reds….that’s the type of deal they are looking at….not Albies or Torres or Senzel or Verdugo….if someone offers more than that they are dumb….but we’ve all seen dumb GMs so it could happen….
it’ll take at least 3 prospects back with one of them being a young impact bat right now.and another top 25 guy.
lol!
Same old Yankees BS.
Lowball other teams.
Miss out on Verlander and Gerrit Cole for lowballing teams in trades
and getting turned down.
Yankees have themselves to blame for their bad rotation.
Yankees will not win a championship this year either…
But, maybe they trade for or sign another DH LMFAO..
Sounds like you have little concept of what a prospect actually is. Trading for younger players who may or may not amount to anything is something you trade players on expiring contracts like Castellanos or Baumgartner for. They won’t help the contending team during their window & they’re upside is the best the non-contending team can get. Players with years of control left are traded for proven prospects that will play in the bigs and may be stars. Top/proven prospects still come with risks and most don’t become stars. If Boyd continues to improve he can become a needed vet for the Tigers and will have a track record that silences critics. If he doesn’t, he gets the same type of low ball packages critics are proposing. Either way there is no downside for the Tigers in waiting except injury and any player can get injured at any time.
@ stat_head….I know all of this….but Boyd isn’t a proven stud so why would another smart team trade top prospects for him?
I know teams give up marginal prospects for expiring contracts and top prospects for proven stars but Boyd is neither a proven star or on expiring contract do at best he nets the Tigers 2 prospects outside of top 75 and maybe a young bat but it won’t be Nate Lowe or any of the studs I mentioned previously….unless a dumb GM gets desperate but that certainly doesn’t mean Boyd is worth that type of haul just as Q wasn’t worth the haul the White Sox got in return….
A smart team trades for him when they need a solid starter with upside and additional years of control to compete this year. The issue is why would the Tigers would trade a stater with years of control for a low ball offer when they will likely get as much or more next year when he continues his superior performance? Even the if he regresses the low ball price remains the same. The only reason to move Boyd is for a package of high level prospects.
Superior performance…..lmfao….he hasn’t been superior nor will he be in the future….they should cash in now because the years if control is the only leverage they have…..get a couple top 75 prospects and call it a day….hold out until next year and he regresses and loses a year of control which is the Tigers bargaining chip…..the Astros are reluctant to deal Tucker for Thor…..yet Tigers fans are expecting the #1 prospect Franco for Boyd….gtfo with that….
please,please take Stumph too! dude is a hot mess.every time I seen him pitch it turns into a dumpster fire.
I agree that Boyd will cost 2-3 prospects but none that are in top 25 or even top 50….now if it’s an organizational top 25 yes….maybe 2 of them….plus a lottery ticket but they won’t get Albies….Riley….Verdugo….Senzel….or Torres type player….those teams wouldn’t trade them for Thor so Boyd isn’t bringing back a young star….just saying
You would be wrong.
Boyd is worth the same or more that the Pirates paid the Rays for Chris Archer: Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz for and an A ball lottery ticket..
I disagree….Boyd is not as good as Archer or Q for that matter….Boyd is a guy having a decent season in his late 20s….he racks up Ks like Ray did for past few seasons….hence the poor mans Robbie Ray or younger version of Robbie Ray comment I made….though Ray has had down season I still consider him as good or better than Boyd and his half good season….I think a GM would be dumb to part with more than 2 lower prospects in organizational rankings….
All I’m saying is they aren’t getting Verdugo plus May or Riley plus Anderson or Senzel plus Trammel…..they should be happy getting a Renfro or Winker type deal straight up or Frazier and a couple low prospects from Yankees unless some team gets desperate and trades their future for what could be a fluke half season from Boyd….
Also Pirates overpaid for Archer because Glasnow alone is just as good as Archer plus they threw in Meadows and Baz….the Pirates got fleeced but were desperate after moving Cole….tigers will get nothing close to this deal and the only ones who think they will is Tigers fans….lol
If it takes a top 25 plus an impact bat I will keep my top 25 and my impact bat….over a 3rd starter on a bad team….where he is the “ace” by default….no thanks keep your scrub….
What are you talking about?
SO9 12.0
FIP 3.56
Whip 1.13
Is considered a scrub. He’s a number three or four starter on a good team and has three and a half years of control. I think thats worth atleast two top one hundred prospects and a young bat.
He is an average pitcher at best….poor mans Robbie Ray….no team is gonna give up 2-3 high end prospects for him plus a young stud and if they do they are dumb or desperate….
You are saying contending teams will always be in contention next year so why risk prospects. Smart GMs trade prospects when they believe they can go all the way, like Houston in 2017, because they know this may be their only chance. They also know their window may close before that prospect makes the team or contributes, if they ever contribute. Dayton Moore was widely criticized by Fangraphs & others for trading Wil Myers & Jake Odorozzi for James Shields & Wade Davis because Myers was a can’t miss prospect. KC won a WS & Myers has 1 good year. KC doesn’t make that trade it is unlikely they ever even make the playoffs.
I know how it works and I get what you are saying….but the Astros for instance would be better next year with Tucker and Alvarez than they would be with Boyd so why trade potential studs for a 3rd starter….?? Just saying….we both have valid arguments and the Tigers could get 2 decent prospects for Boyd but they will not get High end prospects….it also depends on which team trades for him….teams have different level of prospects so say the Giants go all in and trade for Boyd (even though they will not make the playoffs) the Tigers could get the Giants best 2 or 3 prospects but if the Astros or Dodgers trade for Boyd then the Tigers will get the same level prospects but they won’t be in their top 5….because they both have better farms than the Giants….so it really depends on what team trades for him….that will determine the prospect package whether it be a team’s top 3 (Giants) or a teams 8,10,15 (Astros or Dodgers)
It’s obvious that you haven’t seen Boyd pitch, either this year or last year. He has an excellent slider and four other pitches to go with it and all he needs is a minor tweak to improve his location. He’s FAR above an average pitcher. Having said all that, it doesn’t follow that he’ll bring far above average prospects-iit’s a lot more complicated than that.
I’ve seen him pitch….a lot if pitchers have filthy stuff but are #3 starters….stuff is only part of being a pitcher….composure is another and then there is mental approach and other intangibles….point is he is good but not great and his years of control seem to be the biggest asset right now….but u don’t know what those years of control will be like….take Homer Bailey for instance….having him signed for 1 million over 5 years is a bargain to some….but at what cost? Those 5 years will be a disaster….Boyd is better than Bailey I get that but are u getting ace stuff over those remaining years or 3rd starter stuff or does he regress to 4ty starter again….not worth top end prospects…..wanting Franco from TB is ludicrous…..I can honestly say that WILL NOT HAPPEN….
Robbie Ray Matt Boyd comparison
Ray
SO9 11.9
FIP 4.27
Whip 1.30
HR9 1.5
War 1.1
Boyd
SO9 12.0
FIP 3.56
Whip 1.13
HR9 1.6
War 2.9
Boyd also has an extra year of team control than Ray. By the way, when I said young bat I ment like a Nate Lowe type of player.
Boyd is worth more than Ray.
Both pitched for the Tigers..
Boyd this year may have better peripherals but over past few seasons Ray has been better….200 Ks machine….I meant that Boyd is basically taking over what Ray was last few years….younger version of Ray or clone of Ray etc….this year is all crazy…..I mean did anyone think that
Anyone think that Katel Marte would be a top 5 2B? Doubt it. How about Votto being dumped by fantasy owners and not even being injured…..I mean this season has been crazy….Morton cy young voting really? Betts having down year? I don’t go off of 1 season….I go off of 3-5 years and consider age etc when evaluating players….Lynn and Cashner have had decent seasons but does that mean they are more valuable than Flaherty who is struggling? Hell no.
Ray is a solid #3 and maybe even a #2 on some teams….this year he is pitching like a 3 or 4…..Boyd is a #3 starter at Best Buy this year pitching better than Ray and other pitchers that I consider better than Boyd….that doesn’t make Boyd better or more valuable….I have been evaluating players for over 30 years….
Furthermore Nate Lowe is going to be a 30 plus HR stud at 1B….why would the Rays trade him for Boyd? The Rays could package Lowe in a Stroman or Thor deal is all I meant….I didn’t say Boyd was crap….I just don’t buy into the 1 good season thing like some people do unless it’s the players 1st couple seasons and he is already good….Boyd is late 20s and is a late bloomer but I’m not buying that he is an ace in the making and I think of any team gives up more than 2 top 100 prospects plus a young bat like Ray it would be a huge mistake…..Tigers fans want McKay and Honeywell plus Lowe for Boyd…..lmfao…..get outta here with that….
Young bat like Lowe not Ray*
It’s pretty hard for someone to fluke a 12.0 SO9 and a filthy slider.
How about a deal like this,
Matt Boyd, Shane Greene, and Buck Farmer for Vidal Brujan, Shane Baz, and Moises Gomez? That’s reasonable enough right?
That is not out of the question….in fact it helps both teams….
Tigers will turn down that deal.
Boyd by himself is worth multiple 100 prospects on the high end of the scale with additional high end prosects thrown in the deal.
That is one weak package offered:
Brujan has little or no power(Tigers have multiple better 2nd base prospects in their system already including Cody Clemens son of Roger)., Shan Baz was only the 3rd piece in the Chris Archer deal Moises Gomez is rated as a below average hitter who has power if he can make contact)…
For multiple high end pieces of controllable All Star level talent, the Tigers will want to discuss:SS Wander Franco, OF Jesus Sanchez, LHSP Matthew Liberatore, C Renaldo Hernandez etc…
The question is this….will the Tigers get 2 top prospects and a young bat for Boyd vs is Boyd worth 2 top prospects and a young bat? I say no he isn’t worth that but not saying some dumb GM won’t give up that much for him…..but then later regret it….like the Cubs regret the Q deal
LMFAO!
Boyd is rated one of the very top players available: LHSP, cost controlled for
3 ` 1/2 years, leads AL in walks to strikeout ratio, analytics rate Boyd in the same statistical neighborhood as Verlander and Scherzer etc..
Teams will need to do better than that or Detroit will just keep Boyd.
Tigers do not have to give Boyd away for nothing.
Lowball offers will not work with the Tigers…
Boyd is closer to Robbie Ray than he is Scherzer or Verlander….lmfao…..he is jut bringing back Franco the #1 prospect in all of baseball….maybe Boyd and Manning for Franco but come on u are obviously a Tigers fan….we get it….but no team is gonna give up their top prospects for a 3rd starter that may not even be good the next 2 seasons….he is decent this year but he may regress next year….at best a couple of top 75 prospects meaning organizational 7-12
He will not bring back Franco…..it would take a Buehler type to get Franco….and the dodgers have Seager at SS anyways so they won’t do that trade….
It could happen.
The San Diego Padres acquired right-handed pitcher Erik Johnson and infielder Fernando Tatis Jr. from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for right-handed pitcher James Shields and cash considerations
And, Shields was going downhill with a big ERA and a huge contract…at the time..
Overpay and it happens but Shields has track record of being a solid #2 workhorse….the Pirates overpaid for Archer big time and the Cubs over paid for Quintana too but all of these pitchers had track records of being TOR type pitchers….Boyd does not….Boyd had several years of control and that is the only bargaining chip the Tigers have with Boyd unless Greene is also involved….in which case it will require a much better package but for Boyd alone they won’t get top prospects
“Boyd is worth multiple top 100 prospects alone on the high end of the scale plus other prospects”
Lmfao….read this 20 minutes ago still laughing….almost pissed myself….Franco really? The #1 prospect in baseball plus more for a 3rd starter….still lmfao….are u a young kid that loves the Tigers? Just curious….this year he has pitched well….but what about the last 3? What about the next 2? Small sample of him pitching like a true 3rd starter instead of his previous 4th or 5th starter type seasons….he is 28 now….not 22 pitching like a 3rd starter….read my lips….the Tigers will not get anything better than a couple of top 75 prospects….of some desperate GM trades for him they may offer the 50th and 80th prospect and a couple low ball lottery tickets but again read my lips….they are not getting a significant return….smart GMs will say “keep your 3rd starter” lmfao
It’s obvious that you haven’t seen Boyd pitch, either this year or last year. He has an excellent slider and four other pitches to go with it and all he needs is a minor tweak to improve his location. He’s FAR above an average pitcher. Having said all that, it doesn’t follow that he’ll bring far above average prospects-it’s a lot more complicated than that. BTW, I’ve seen a LIT of people with 30 yrs experience and they’re STILL incompetent.
Not incompetent….I am wise and I know teams make dumb trades but no team is giving up top end prospects for Boyd….Tigers aren’t getting Tucker or Franco or any other top end prospect unless Greene is also in the deal….now lower end top 100 sure….a couple in the top 75 range or 1 top 50 and maybe another in the top 85 range….good prospects but not the top prospects….they will either hold on to him because they want more than he is worth….or they will trade him for lower end prospects….
The Astros are reluctant to trade Tucker to Mets for Thor…..so the Tigers want Franco plus others for Boyd….u see where I am going with this? They are not getting top end prospects just because Boyd has 3 years of control….because those 3 years are not guaranteed to be TOR type years….it’s a risk it always is….but there are better pitchers to be had next year….why would the Braves trade their top pitching prospects for Boyd when their top prospects will be as good as Boyd as early as next year….Soroka is already better imo….Anderson is right behind him….Boyd will not get a team over the top….now a Boyd plus Greene trade could get a team over the top and would require better package
Just keep your 3rd starter as no team wants to meet your outrageous demands for top prospects plus an MLB ready bat like Riley or Lowe or Verdugo….when all of their WAR will be as high as Boyd’s over next few seasons….why trade Verdugo who could be around 3 or 4 WAR per season which is what u get from Boyd….plus throw in top prospects….KEEP HIM….unless u throw in Greene….
Timid GMs on certain teams lowball the top quality starters and are left sitting on the couch with no World Series trophies for at least 10 years lmfao…
Keep trading for garbage and get no title..
Disagree with your analysis of Boyd.
Read the Dayn Perry piece :Boyd could be the biggest fish in trade market.
Dayn Perry is a top ranked and respected national media baseball analyst, columnist, commentator and reporter..
cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-deadline-why-matt…
More garbage.
Says the person who cannot defend their position..
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Matt Boyd has had two good months and an addition two months of being Matt Boyd; a #3 at-best pitcher probably closer to a #4 with a great strikeout to walk ratio along with a solid WHIP. Except he can’t stop giving up runs. Does not pitch well on the road (you can look that up) and does not have a long track record of success.
I can go deeper. Please don’t tell anyone they cannot defend their position on a player like Matt Boyd. Reserve your lines for a more worthy player.
False, False, False and False…
You are making yourself look bad since the facts do not support your statements.
Averaging double digit strikeouts of opposing teams on the road like 13 strikeouts at Yankee stadium., 10 strikeouts of Mariners in Seattle,10 Royals in KC, 13 White Sox at Chicago..the list is long…
Mariners…White Sox…and Royals all rebuilding teams….such a feat….it Stroman couldn’t get top 100 prospects Boyd won’t get multiple top 100 prospects….only reason he will get maybe 2 top 75 prospects is his control and cost….
Yankees, Phil;lies the list is long.
Stoman to Mets is a surprise.
Mets probably trading Thor to rebuild on the fly..
“All of that — his scant service time plus his sustainable excellence in the current season — means that the Tigers can rightly ask for a great deal in return. A package involving multiple top-100 overall prospects is probably a starting point.”
“If the Tigers do opt to flip Boyd before July 31, then he might command the biggest haul of anyone. That’s with good reason.”
“Boyd has a deep, five-pitch repertoire, but he throws either the fastball or slider more than 80 percent of the time. He’s got solid velocity by lefty standards, and this season he’s increased his spin rate on both pitches, possibly in part by lowering his arm angle just a bit. Prior to his soft breakout in 2018 (101 ERA+ and 3.12 K/BB ratio for the year), Boyd added a great deal of vertical movement to his slider, which helps explain his increasing willingness to use it against the opposite side. While Boyd is indeed fastball-sinker heavy, he throws his change, curve, and sinker often enough to keep hitters thinking about them”.
“The changes have added up to a strikeout percentage — i.e., strikeouts as a percentage of batters faced — of 32.1 for Boyd this season. Among qualifiers, that figure ranks behind just Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Chris Sale. That’s rarified air. It’s also part of why Boyd projects well going forward”…
He is not the beast u guys think he is….I remember Dan Straily flirted with 200 Ks also on a couple of occasions but he was nothing more than a 4th starter….that had 2 decent seasons….all pitchers have 4-5 decent or good pitches….or they wouldn’t be there….most don’t find their potential though….so saying he has a nasty slider is like saying Straily has a nasty slider or saying Lyles has a filthy CB….they all have their go to pitch and yes Boyd gets Ks but don’t act like he is the next Snell or next Sale….he is a Robbie Ray clone….good #3 starter having a good half season of starts….a desperate team may offer more than he is worth but that doesn’t mean he is worth that much….it would be a desperation move….but to think he will get Franco or Riley or Lowe or Senzel or Verdugo is ludicrous….the Astros are not even willing to part with Tucker for Thor….Franco listed as higher end prospect than Tucker and Thor is better than Boyd….so gtfo with that and settle for 2 top 75 or a 50 and 85 prospect package or include Greene to get better package it keep your 4td starter who will in my opinion regress next season and is not worth the package the Tigers want for his cheap contract and years of control….that is what this is about not his skill set…..if he gets a return of better prospects than I am saying he is worth it is because of the years of control and the low cost of his contract or the Tigers threw in Greene to get better package….no track record and all he does is gets Ks….a smart GM will have better chance at competing without him….he adds a couple Wins to your record this season maybe….or u keep your prospects and they together get u 5-6 extra wins next season….he is not worth what they are asking for….I had to actually screenshot the comments about him being SUPERIOR and the one that said he could get Franco from the Rays…..just to show to other friends to get a good laugh….thanks for that by the way……if he gets Franco from the Rays it’s because the Tigers threw in Greene and Farmer and the Rays threw in other stuff too….in a blockbuster….but too many teams have seen the Pirates and Cubs get fleeced in deals for Archer and Q….
My guess at this point he stays with Detroit because no smart GM will give up the dark for limited track record….I here people argue that Shields and Archer and Q got a bounty in return….those were all aces it #2s with track records….Boyd is a #3 with little track record of success….won’t get the same type of haul and the only enticing thing about Boyd is his control and low cost….but teams can get low cost controllable guys from other teams giving up less than what the Tigers are asking….they won’t contend for years but want a proven young star….wtf
Boyd is a #1 on the Yankees and many teams…
Houston is looking at Boyd to slot right in between Verlander and Cole @2.
Brewers have interest and Boyd would be their #1
Braves are also looking at Boyd and Greene etc…
Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Cardinals, Padres have all shown strong interest in Boyd and some of these other Tigers players.
On the Dodgers, Boys would be a #3 or 4, but they have a few free agents that won’t be resigned so Boyd would be 2 or 3 max next year on the Dodgers..
I have been posting here and elsewhere that Boyd is worth a package of top young players and prospects.
I stand by my statement.
Many top baseball analyts, GMs and Scouts agree with my statement.
Will some team do that deal Boyd for a package of players and prospects…?!
It depends on the market, how it develops, other deals that are made or not made…so many factors enter into it that the public is not privy to.
And, I have also been posting here and elsewhere that a Tigers deal could expand into a blockbuster package deal.
It is the next logical progression…
I can see lhsp Boyd , All Star Closer Greene and Castellanos…maybe set up guy Buck Farmer (some of those players or all of those players becoming a major blockbuster package of one stop shopping for a BOLD GM AND BOLD TEAM…(Rays, Braves etc)…
The Rays could use all 3 or 4 of those guys to get back into the Division Race.
Rays have a very deep farm system that could do a major blockbuster and still come out of it with a better farm system than most other teams…..
Ditto with the Braves and a few others loaded systems…
If Your team gets 2 or 3 Veteran All Star caliber players, then yes you will be paying with at least a handful of your top young players and prospects….including some experienced major leaguers,…
Teams and GMs will not take “lottery tickets” in exchange for top, cost controlled talent, unless you are adding those sweeteners on the end of a package deal of top producing players and prospects,
Do any of these GMs have the nerve and confidence to “go for it” and shoot for the moon and the championship trophy?!
Dunno!
We will find out this week.
Dave Dombrowski went “all in” and landed the World Series Trophy for his team last year.
He made great sacrifices in sending top prospects away for needed pieces for that championship.
Is he crying about it or having regrets?!
I doubt it….
He has another World Series Championship ring on his finger…
Boyd would not be #2 in Houston….lol
Verlander Cole Boyd….the only reason they would put him between JV and Cole is to get the R-L-R rotation going but he isn’t better than either of them….just to be clear
McCullers though he is injured is also better than Boyd….so in a healthy Astros rotation Boyd sits at 4 or 5….same with Dodgers and most other playoff caliber teams….
These teams would be trading for a 3rd or 4th starter….not Stroman not Thor just your every day 3rd starter Boyd….I can’t think of any team desperate enough to trade multiple high end prospects for the chance that Boyd is good the next 3 seasons because I don’t think he will be….
Now if they include Castellenos and Green or even one of them then u can talk up the package to 3 or 4 good prospects but for Boyd alone they will get 2 prospects in the top 75-100….not Franco….or Gore or any of the top prospects….sports analysts are never wrong though so neither are u in saying that they get multiple high end prospects for Boyd alone…..lol…..u still have me laughing about the Franco thing and the superior performance comment….he is not elite nor has he been superior in any way EVER…..a few good games that’s it….they ain’t getting Franco or any other stud….not just for 3 years of control for a 3rd starter….the only reason he would be the ace of any team is due to injuries to their teams rotation like the Yankees and Brewers….other than that he is not a true ace….at least not on a playoff team other than the ones mentioned with injury problems….
Lastly….teams don’t know what Boyd they are getting….the career 4th/5th starter Boyd or the 3rd starter with #2 potential on bad teams….or injury riddled teams….I wouldn’t risk my future on a maybe….yes he has 3 years of control and yes he is cheap but so is a lot of other guys that don’t cost what the Tigers are wanting back….
Look at the Pirates deal where they got fleeced by the Rays….Rays won that deal….
How about Q to the Cubs….the White Sox fleeced the Cubs….Cubs won that deal
These are 2 good pitchers that were on the losing side of 2 big trades….u think any GM wants to be added to that conversation as another GM that got fleeced???
If Boyd was a proven stud yes take the chance on him….just as the Cubs and Pirates did….but he is no Q nor is he an Archer or even a Stroman who was just traded for 2 prospects outside the top 100….
Don’t believe everything u read….make your own analyzations of trade possibilities….in other words….
“Don’t believe the hype”
Oops….meant White Sox won that deal not Cubs*
Disagree with most of what you said there.
SF Giants top scouts are also watching Boyd and looking to “buy”…
Teams looking to “lowball” the Tigers should have a backup plan available..
Bartolo Colon is looking for a job?!
Is that you Cash?
Debateable whether Lance McCullers Jr is better than Boyd.
Jr has never won more than 10 games
Juniors strikeouts per 9 innings are lower
Junior’s ERA was what 3.8 in 2018 on a World Series Championship team with gold glovers everywhere and a shut down bullpen?!
Boyd’s analytics ERA is calculated at 3.2-3..3.
Calculate in All star defense of the Astros
& much better bullpen,
run support on offense to take the pressure off Boyd to
always pitching to be perfect and not rely on a shaky D..
Then, arguably, Boyd’s stats are much better than McCullers
if Boyd is in the Astros rotation..
I still don’t get how they want a proven young stud hitter plus multiple high end prospects JUST FOR BOYD ALONE….
When Boyd is not a proven stud himself….lmfao….so in other words they want to win that trade….”we want the better player plus prospects for Boyd”
Now I can understand wanting 2-3 prospects around the top 100 or top 120 range maybe 2 inside the top 100 and the other outside the top 100 but to also want a proven young stud when Boyd is not a proven stud himself they are essentially saying “we want the better pieces plus prospects for our late blooming onion”
There is no guarantee to prospects I get that….but Boyd is no guarantee either….he alone takes no playoff team to the WS….so why give up 3-5 prospects or a proven stud….
Ask yourself, would you sit on your hands like some teams and lose out on Verlander and then Gerrit Cole and then Strohman and probably Boyd because you want teams to take your lowball offers
and refuse to up the ante?!
Is winning a World Series important to you
or do you just want to fill the seats and make the playoffs almost every year?!
Ask yourself this….would u rather have Alvarez and Tucker or Boyd? 95% would take Alvarez and Tucker so u can keep Boyd….I hope u see where I am going with this….will Boyd make the Astros better? Yes by maybe 3 games….but Alvarez and Tucker will combine for more than that next season….just like a prospect there is no guarantee in a veteran either….look at Archer and Q….I like most people think the Pirates and Cubs got fleeced….but that was the risk of trading for a TOR type arm but Boyd doesn’t have the track record to warrant such a deal….a desperate team may offer 2 top 75 guys that’s it unless Greene or Castellenos is included….then the Tigers could expect a better return obviously but give up the thought or wish that they will break the bank with top prospects….
#notgonnahappen
Read the Astros Analytic reports on Boyd,,,It is “off the charts” Astros with their advanced analytics, great defense, offensive run support and bullpen….Boyd’s stats would be much better on such a team and they know that since they have done the analysis on Boyd as have many Astros fan boards…
By himself or with others, Boyd is one of the most valuable trade pieces that could be obtained on the market…..
No they would not…
Ask Dave Dombrowski. who traded guys he knew could become stars in MLB to get the Red Sox another WS Trophy…
Yanks have not won a WS in what 10-11 years?!
Dodgers have not won a WS since the 1980’s with Gibson and LaSorda..
Isn’t baseball about winning the World Series Championship?!
If Boyd gets you there, then you do it.
Verlander put the Stohs over the top.
Without Verlander, no championship for Houston…
I am sure they realize that they had to give up talent to get there
and that it was worth it..
Hear people*
Stroman gets traded for Anthony Kay the Mets #4 prospect….and the Mets #6 prospect….the Tigers want the world for Boyd….multiple top 100 prospects plus an MLB ready bat….gtfo….
I TOLD U IT WOULDN’T HAPPEN….
Boyd May be traded for a similar package but not a better package and the only reason he comes close to getting a similar package is his cost and his control….has nothing to do with him being the next big thing….get over yourselves Tigers fans….
Nope!
No reason to trade Boyd for a lower level package.
Boyd has 3 1/2 years of team control.
The prices will only be going up if teams wait…
Tigers now have the 10th best MLB farm.
They are stocking up and may get the #1 pick, again.
Everyone is surprised the Jays took the Mets offer.
Jays could have waited and got more than that..
Mets probably jumped in to keep Strohman from the Yankees..
Astros, Yankees, Braves, Rays, Phillies would have given the Jays more than that for Strohman..
I get what u are saying about Boyd I really do….at times he has been filthy but it’s not consistent….sometimes he implodes (as do most pitchers) but I don’t see a team giving up their best 3 prospects plus a proven hitter for him until he shows he can be relied on more consistently….a ton of people feel the same way while tons of other people are thinking like u….both sides make sense and neither of us are 100% right or wrong and like u said it will all come to light depending on the circumstances or the market if u will….with Stroman off the board more teams will covet Boyd and the Tigers may get a better package than I have posted….u could be right and I appreciate the clean argument….I love baseball as do u and the rest of us here for the most part….but I have seen nasty comments throughout my time reading these posts….so again I appreciate the clean fun argument/debate….it’s fun talking Baseball with others even if we don’t agree on things…..
However I still don’t think Boyd is worth the #1 overall prospect Franco unless Greene or Castellenos is added to the deal….
If it’s just Boyd I can see Honeywell or Yarborough included with Brujan and others but not Franco….just saying….
I don’t remember when the last time it was that Boyd “imploded”…Maybe a year and a half ago.
Boyd’s ERA has to do with playing on a lousy team with lousy bullpen, lousy defense and little or no run support.
He has to pitch practically a shutout every game or he loses.
Good comments and discussion.
The value of any asset whether it be players or whatever is usually determined by a variety of factors including supply, demand, market forces, the value to the acquiring party etc…
Every asset may not be worth the same to every potential buyer or acquiring party.
If acquiring a certain player or players gets your team to the playoffs, the WS, wins your team a WS, then the value of the acquired assets can be even higher than the market or bid prices…
Projecting future value of acquired assets can be a challenge also what with improvements, regressions injuries etc…
If an asset like Boyd (and/or other players in a package) gets your team to the next level or even higher, than paying a premium for reaching those levels can be justified as a value for your ballclub/organization..
The ballclubs that accept prospects and young players gamble on the long term investment and returns. Ballclubs getting established players bet on this year and shorter term returns on value.
Acquiring Parties will always try to drive down values to get the best deal possible.
Selling Parties will try to maximize return on their assets…
Most trades should be evaluated in a 5 year window to determine if value was delivered to both sides.
The Trade market this year has been confused and slow moving. Some teams are already calling for a return to the old system of 2 trade deadlines Non Waiver July and August waiver trade deadlines to get the market moving again.
We still could see a lot of action in the next few days.
Right now, it does not look like Boyd is moving.
With Strohman and each player going off the market, however, the prices could rise higher for remaining desired players..
GMs and ownership must decide when they wake up Tuesday whether their team wants to “go for it”.
All I gotta say is get the BUCK outta here. Take Jiminez sincehe doesn’t want to get into shape. You won’t get much of a haul for either one to be ho eat but you’ll open up roster spots to bring up from triple A. I was really hoping Jiminez would take the next step but he’s regressed so much compared to last season. Yes I k ow he’s young but with the firepower he has he should be dominating.
Hold that thought Tigers fan.
No need to trade Jimenez or Farmer unless some GM gives you an offer you cannot refuse or unless one or both are part of a much larger deal and you are getting multiple great young players and top 100 prospects back in a blockbuster deal.
Jimenez was an All Star last year.
He will get straightened out..
Selling low on a guy under team control until 2024 is usually a bad idea..
Farmer is a quality set up guy. under control until 2023
From New Jersey.com
YANKEES
: Tigers’ Matthew Boyd puts on a show for scouts | Was Sunday his final start for Detroit?
Updated Jul 29, 9:10 AM; Posted Jul 29, 9:08 AM
He gave up one run on three hits and three walks while striking out 10 in 6.1 innings against the Seattle Mariners. He received a no-decision in the 3-2 loss, but lowered his ERA to 3.94.
He is getting better every start, not worse.
Don’t know what is with these completely uniformed posters bad mouthing Boyd for no legitimate reason..
Years of control and a cheap contract will get the Tigers a decent package but without the track record of Q and Archer the return will be less than what the White Sox and Rays got….
Q and Archer were on team friendly deals that had multiple years of control left….PLUS they had track records of being TOR type arms so the White Sox fleeced the Cubs and the Rays fleeced the Pirates….no GM wants to be in that same conversation on the losing end….every GM wants to win trades like these….
With Boyd the contract is enticing but teams don’t know if they are getting a TOR or just a cheap contract for the next 3 seasons….
I still say it’s 1-2 inside top 75 and 1 outside top 100….or Boyd stays in Detroit….unless Greene is added to the deal in which case prospect package gets much better…..just saying….
Example: Say Homer Bailey has 5 years of control at 1 million per season….that’s a bargain for sure….or is it?
That’s 5 years of watching him pitch like a 4th or 5th starter and that is not worthy of hitting the farm….
Multiple years of a cheap contract is great but teams also want proven success when dealing their top prospects….
That said….Franco and Lux and Riley and Albies and Gore plus many more are off the table unless Greene is included and even then it’s a long shot to get any of those guys just because Boyd has 3 plus years of control and that is because they don’t know that they are getting
Gutting the farm*
I would rather pay less in prospects for Duffy and Kennedy than to gut my farm on Boyd and Greene….I bet the difference in wins between those 2 sets of pitchers is only 2-3….