We’re nearing the one-year anniversary of Pittsburgh acquiring right-hander Chris Archer from Tampa Bay in a whopper of a trade. The Pirates, under the impression they were getting back a front-line starter, sent high-caliber prospects Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to the Rays in exchange for Archer last July 31. Unfortunately for the Pirates, the deal has been a catastrophe to this point. Archer has flopped, while Glasnow and Meadows may be turning into core pieces for the Rays.
With two-plus months left in his first full season as a Pirate, Archer’s on pace for a career-worst campaign. The 30-year-old has offset an impressive strikeout rate (10.07 K/9) with control problems (4.69 BB/9) and home run issues (2.29 HR/9) en route to a 5.49 ERA/5.91 FIP in 78 2/3 innings. Stunningly, among 110 pitchers who have thrown at least 70 frames in 2019, the once-excellent Archer ranks sixth from the bottom in ERA and second last in FIP.
Now, Archer’s in the process of trying to turn around his fortunes, as he explained to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Archer will hope to do a 180 with a different repertoire. He dumped his two-seam fastball in a June 22 start against the Padres and plans to rely more heavily on his signature slider. Archer told Mackey batters’ “slugging percentage on my two-seamer was extremely high. One way to eliminate the damage is just to not throw the pitch that has the most damage. It’s not a complex thing. It was just getting banged. I got rid of it.”
Archer’s right. Hitters own a ludicrous .867 slugging percentage against the pitch – one Statcast classifies as a sinker and says he has turned to 15.8 percent of the time this season. Archer didn’t throw a sinker in any of the three full seasons before the Pirates acquired him, but it became a prominent part of the mix last year. While Archer told Mackey that “I probably tried to change too much” upon relocating to Pittsburgh, he and pitching coach Ray Searage insist the hurler – no one else – determines what he throws. Searage indicated he and Archer have a great relationship.
Whereas Archer’s two-seamer was a disaster before he scrapped it, his slider has been eminently effective throughout his career. That includes this season, during which hitters have mustered a toothless .290 weighted on-base average/.293 expected wOBA against it. Archer believes it’s “one of the best pitches in baseball.” And yet, he has leaned on it far less than usual this season, having tossed it at a 35.1 percent clip. That’s down 6.6 percent from last season and 9.5 percent compared to 2017.
Simply throwing more sliders and fewer sinkers won’t be the solution alone, according to Searage, who told Mackey that Archer also must improve his four-seam fastball command. In Searage’s estimation, that will lead to a decrease in homers against Archer, who had never allowed HRs on more than 16.2 percent of fly balls in a season until 2019. This year, he’s giving them up at a 23.8 percent rate. Only two starters have been worse in that department. Archer has had enough.
He honestly has the arm slot and hand/wrist action for a Wainwright curveball, I don’t know if he’s ever thrown one but mixing speeds, from mid 90’s, down to his slider to a curve in the mid to high 70’s seems like it’d be effective.
Interesting. Interesting.
Well at least you’re honest about your 2 seam. Good luck and Godspeed
I feel so bad for the pirates fans… yet at the same time I’m kinda happy cause we gifted you guys Bryan Reynolds
…and Kyle Crick. That trade was a huge win for the Bucs.
Pirates fans were on here ripping the Crick trade. I watched him several times while he was in the Giants system. I knew he would end up being a strong BP piece.
Looks like Searage still hasn’t learned. Hey, remember Gerrit Cole? The elite pitching prospect that never reached his ceiling with the Pirates? Dealt to Houston, Brent Strom has him scrap the two-seamer and go high four-seamers and curves, boom, elite ace.
Now Archer, an ace, moves to Pittsburgh, starts throwing a two-seamer, and falls apart. Good job, pitching coach.
Gerrit Cole will never be an Ace. He is a high end #2. Cole only excels with there is another veteran in the rotation ahead of him to babysit him. Cole’s best years in Pittsburgh were when he had AJ Burnett ahead of him and now he has Verlander.
Great observation. Watched Cole since the pirates drafted him. He had one good year then layer an egg in the playoffs..
You know playoff performance is kind of random right? And how can another pitcher “babysit” you? Are we all listening to sports radio again?
He doesn’t need to be the guy. It’s a mental thing. He is not the one who shoulders the load, he doesn’t have to be a leader, he can just go out and pitch and be himself.
Cole is an ace. He pitches to the same batters after JV does the next game. His numbers are outstanding and would be an ace on 75% of the teams or there easily. Just because he didn’t hit his ceiling with the Pirates doesn’t mean he couldn’t turn the corner in his career. Sometimes it takes time.
Obviously haven’t watched much of him with the Astros. Dude is straight up dominating with them. That’s like saying Cliff Lee wasn’t an ace for the Phillies because he had Halladay in the rotation.
#2? Have you seen his numbers the last year and a half? On pace for 300+k’s this year. Sub 3 ERA last year with a 3.00 FIP through the first half this year. He’s an ace for the Astros. Plain and simple. They just have the luxury of having two of them.
I think Brian Stevenson is making the argument Cole isn’t an ace because he needs to be protected by another ace? If Justin Verlander wasn’t there taking the lead, Cole would wilt like a flower pulled out of the ground on a hot day.
Obviously, when Cole utterly dominated with the Pirates in 2015, it must have been because future first ballot HoF’er Francisco Liriano was protecting him.
Archer was never an ace
Only if being called an ace means several dominant years. His stuff was ace quality but his inability to slow the game down has always hampered him.
Correlation does not imply causation. I don’t buy into your theory. Cole is an ace
Archer was never an Ace! Never has never will be!
Archer was and never will be “an ace”!
He hasn’t been good in a few years. Not sure why it took him a his long to seek a change. I thought Pittsburgh was where guys went to get fixed.
It’s the same old story with Ray Searage. He has a history of making bad pitchers good, but he has not once made a good pitcher great. He has a cookie cutter way of teaching and rather than letting pitchers do what has made them successful in the minors/majors in the past, he forces his methods upon every pitcher regardless of skill set. I really don’t understand how he still has a job. I don’t believe Archer is an ace, but there should be major red flags being raised and questions being asked within the organization as to why all of a sudden Archer is no longer even an average pitcher.
Uhh…Felipe Vazquez? How many All Star games did he make with the Nats?
Trevor Williams has had an injury marred up and down year so far, but he was one of the best pitchers in MLB in the second half last year. The guy who was traded for an assistant pitching coach was developed into a #2 starter.
Go back and check JA Happ’s career numbers and earning before he got to Pittsburgh. He should send Searage a check once a month.
Also, I read an interview with Glasnow, the mechanical change that fixed him occurred in Pittsburgh under Searage a few weeks before the trade. But, Hurdle had long lost faith in him, so the Rays get the credit.
This idea that Searage has to be declared a God or a bum with no in between is silly. He has an approach that works with some people, but not others (Cole, for sure), like every other coach ever.
Those guys all bought into his methods. He has a different philosophy for relief pitchers, notice how the Pirates love to go after flamethrower types (Feliz, Camenero, Vazquez, etc.) for the pen but then teach their starters to throw a sinking fastball, Williams, Kuhl, Glasnow, Morton, Cole, the list goes on. Now Cole, Glasnow, and Morton have all went to different places and blossomed. The teacher adapts to the student, the student doesn’t adapt to the teacher.
Couldn’t agree more, Josh.
But if you say that then people will have to find other targets to whine about.
Sometimes it takes a little more patience than others
It’s weird, I was just talking about Dave Duncan on here the other day, and your analysis of Searage made me laugh at how similar it sounds to him. Dave Duncan was the same way. He learned the cutter before most guys and taught it to 30-somethings coming off TJ surgery. Every pitcher he ever developed learned the cutter. Every one. Don’t get me wrong, there was no one better at taking scrap heap pitchers and making them very good again, but he was not someone you wanted touching prospects. The Cardinals had the most talented young lefty in the MLB since Carlton in Ankiel and while I don’t blame him totally for his fall, I do know that there were some serious mechanical issues that grade school pitching coaches should have been able to see and correct.
Exactly this, Searage teaches everyone a sinking fastball and wants everyone to throw it heavily. Not everyone can be effective with a sinker, sometimes you need to let guys be themselves.
He needs to revamp his haircut.
Why? Josh Bell too? God forbid a black player have an ethnic hairstyle.
To be fair John Jaso’s hair was pretty bad too and McCutchens was dope. I don’t think skin color has anything to do with it. I think it correlates to the hat size required.
I’m still bummed Cutch cut his hair.
IM OFFENDED YOURE OFFENDED WERE ALL OFFENDED
Why were the Pirates ever under the impression they were getting back a front-line starter? And this isn’t revisionist history. When that trade happened was there anyone—aside from the pirate’s front office—who wasn’t perplexed by what they gave up?
Archer’s ERA in his last three years with TB was 4.02, 4.07, and 4.32. There’s a lot of variance with ERA, but 2 years and 4 months of a league-average ERA+ should be a warning sign.
But even more troubling is that he traded away Cole, and traded for Archer, in the same year. So you got a worse SP in the two deals, and worse prospects.
It shouldn’t have turned out this bad, and Meadows is in free-fall, but it never made a lot of sense to me.
ERA is fine but I tend to go with FIP for a better stat on pitching success, and according to that Archer was one of the best pitchers in one of the most difficult divisions to pitch in. Even the Blue Jays and orioles had potent offenses during his time in the AL East.
What has happened since he arrived in Pittsburgh is wild but I think it’s correctable. He doesn’t appear to be injured so hopefully he can get back to being an above average pitcher
FIP isn’t perfect. Archer was giving up a lot of really hard contact, but FIP doesn’t calculate that in. FIP has also shown some pretty significant cracks in the armor when it comes to the ultra high K and BB rates we’re seeing these days. Pitchers as a whole are no longer performing as consistently between ERA and FIP.
ERA is significantly better than FIP at determining how well a pitcher actually performed and might be expected to perform over a period of 2+ years because ERA is what actually happened and includes every possible variable.
Didn’t know this. Thanks!
A one month slump for Meadows isn’t a free fall. Of he’s still is scuffling come Aug then maybe then.
I thought Meadows was already in the HOF
Everyone in the fantasy community was screaming, “Anywhere but Pittsburgh!” Searage is known for making pitchers throw more fastballs, which doesn’t really work if you fastballs are not your best pitch (e.g. Archer). The metrics said this was going to happen. Why trade substantial pieces for a guy whose skill set is opposed to your philosophy? AJ Burnett played everything off his fastball and made Searage look like a genius. Meanwhile, he zapped Garrett Cole’s ability to become an ace by not letting him play off his secondaries and making him throw a bunch of mediocre fastballs. Archer probably said enough is enough and just canned the two-seamer on his own. Players have access to these metrics just as easily as coaches do. He knows what’s happened.
Chris has three main problems, two of which are under his control/his fault and one that is not.
1) He only has two pitches. We don’t need to look much further than this, really.
That’s why Searage tried to add the two seamer to his mix. He has a great slider and an average 4 seamer. That’s a mix for a reliever, not a guy who was brought in to eat innings as a starter. You can have the two best pitches in the world and MLB hitters will sit on one and crush you. He has to get a third pitch.
Bottom line, he has to figure out how to use his change up. And it has to be effective. Or he won’t be.
2) He gets flustered.
Chris is an athlete who is fueled by swagger. When he’s going well, you can see it. It feeds him. But swagger doesn’t last very long after you get lit up and he loses his focus. Once that happens, he just starts guessing and hoping. He needs to just focus on each pitch. At one point, he kept talking about “pitch execution” so it’s clear he and Searage know this. He has to fix it.
3) Except during this year’s NHL playoffs, I’ve seen most of Archer’s starts. There is no pitcher in baseball that needs an electronic strike zone more than him. Yes, every pitcher gets bad calls, but nothing like I’ve seen with him. I’ve seen 5 strike walks, many many 4 strike walks and 3 strike walks all the time.
And I said above, he has to control his frustration and maintain his focus, but it has to mess with your mind to make perfect pitches only to be punished for them on a regular basis. You just executed exactly what you want as well as you can….
What do you throw the next time?
But 3) is really more about what MLB can do better…Archer needs to focus on the other two. It’s on him.
Rays fan here, 1. Archer would be a lights out back end bullpen guy. 2 he will say it until the cows come home how good he feels he just needs to be better to the point it will make you so mad you’ll wanna punch the tv, there is 0 responsibility from him. 3 he wasn’t very good here but making him throw a sinker and watch it continue getting lit up us just funny to me after reading for years how great that pitching coach is. The rays teach sliders and changeups and they’re extremely good at it but Archer never wanted to put in the work and throw it and try and perfect the changeup. He’s a baby and he whines about everything and was never an ace and never will be. Best chance to get value out of him and maybe flip him to try and get some prospects back is by converting him to a late inning arm
Rays fan here also. I always wondered why the baseball world was infatuated with Archer. Us Rays fans would routinely watch him give one good performance in five. One bad inning. When he started playing with his hat was the key and still is….that he’s lost it mentally.
“When he started playing with his hat was the key and still is….that he’s lost it mentally.”
This is the most accurate thing I’ve ever read here.
Thanks FWTJBT. As a Bucs as well as a Rays fan it comes from watching his act for several yrs. If he could match his confidence level off the mound with his on it…..maybe the Bucs will have something.
The stats guys always say that wins don’t count. But from what I’ve seen, guys with good stuff, and bad records, don’t usually improve. Fro the grief that TB gets, they were > .500 when Archer was on the team. And his winning % was .443. One year, maybe two, you can be unlucky. But he was with TB for 7 years, and only managed one year when he was one game above .500.
interesting. i wonder if the team would be willing to buyout and then resign him for a year to see if he can make good on it.
Strike one.
I think it is important to point out that there is a difference between “Ace” and “club Ace”. Archer was a club ace at some points as a Ray. However, he was never a true as like a JV or Scherzer
dont forget Shane Baz was also in the deal, oof!
Love the locals here in the Burgh. Both the talking heads and the fans who praised the trade last year and have been bashing it all year this year all are clambering for the Pirates to trade top prospects for even rental pitchers like Baumgarner. or package a bunch of them for Thor, who is having a down year. These are the same people complaining about trading away stars for a guy who is on the down side. Just shake my head listening to these mindless people.
“he and pitching coach Ray Searage insist the hurler – no one else – determines what he throws..”
My follow up question to this is who was determining his pitches in Tampa Bay where he had more success? Maybe this dude NEEDS a bit of help determining his pitches.
“The Pirates, under the impression they were getting back a front-line starter”
Maybe they were frequent MLBTR visitors. The site’s staff swore up and down for months that he was good, 400+ innings of poor ERA be damned. Just look at those peripherals!
If I heard the “Archer to the Cardinals” yellers once I heard them 1000 times. I just could not understand why he was so hyped. Yeah, his FIP was lower than his ERA, but it was always that way. It wasn’t as if there were any aberrations, there were 3 years of solid data suggesting he was not an ace.
And that is the problem with peripherals nutbunnies.This new stat is fine but it is not the be all tell all.
NH was enamored with the years of control of Archer’s contract.So what!He needs to be a good pitcher first and foremost.
I was not totally against the trade but I do wonder how the Rays suckered him out of Baz.
ERA is a very telling stat for a large data base.
Archer should try cutting his hair. Maybe his floppy locks are throwing him off balance a bit.
I have to say something before I talk about Archer. Cole is absolutely a ace Whoever said his not is delusional and Archer was a ace he first couple seasons with the Rays but now hes just horrible he leads the league in homeruns giving up Neal Hungington needs to be fired for making that horrible trade Austin Meadows made the All star team Glasnow is playing like a All Star and Baez is playing great in the minors That might go down as one of the top 3 worst trades in baseball history. He might be better in the bullpen but really if he don’t turn it around in his next couple starts Pirates need to trade him to cut there losses because keeping him is just making fans sick watching the worst mistake in Pirates history
Cole is not an ace. He’s had two ace-like years, ’15 and ’17. Otherwise not too shabby, but also not brilliant.
Would I want him pitching for me? Absolutely
Would I prefer someone else as a “lead horse”? Same answer.
“JasonAllPittsburghSportsFan9115”, punctuation matters, it really does.
Your mistake riddled, run-on sentence was too hard to decipher.
Decipher means “to succeed in understanding.”
Cobe I deciphered it with difficulty but it was a typical Yinzer rant so it was not worth the time.
Gerritt Cole is without a doubt an “ace”.He will be getting a contract better than Corbin’s this year and he deserves it.
Benedict was the other Pirates’ pitching “consultant” who went to Miami,and the Pirates subsequently received Williams in a “trade” for a low level prospect since Miami had taken a front office guy from the Pirates previously.
Benedict advised pitchers in reshaping their pitching style in conjunction with Searage.I think that they have missed the second opinion in the 3 1/2 years since.One size does not fit all.
Jim Leyland recently called Archer a talented pitcher.I think what was left unsaid was that he does not have the head to prosper.Look at the concentration of the other Pirate pitchers with less ability and you can see why Archer will never be close to an “ace” if he does not wise up.
The great pitchers have an understated swagger developed through confidence and positive results over time.Chris needs to revise his attitude and let his natural ability take over.