Tigers left-hander Matthew Boyd will be one of the most coveted players available leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, owing to his performance and affordable team control. Contenders aplenty will call the Tigers about Boyd in the next few weeks, if they haven’t already. Count AL West-leading Houston among the clubs interested in the 28-year-old, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. To this point, though, the Astros have not shown a willingness to trade high-end outfield prospect Kyle Tucker for Boyd, according to Morosi.
Tucker would give the offensively challenged Tigers a much-needed player to build around in the field. Their interest in Tucker goes back multiple years, Morosi notes, as the Tigers tried to acquire him from the Astros when the teams made a deal around right-handed ace Justin Verlander late in the 2017 season. Almost two full years later, Tucker remains a potential star in the making for the Astros. MLB.com ranks the 22-year-old as the game’s 10th-best prospect and notes he has high-average, 25-home run upside. Tucker has already slammed 24 homers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this year, moving past a slow start to log a .274/.348/.606 line (123 wRC+) in 330 plate appearances with Triple-A Round Rock.
Although Tucker posted disastrous production in his 72 major league-PA debut a year ago, it’s clear the Astros aren’t going to let that define him. If the team keeps Tucker, he could follow another excellent Astros prospect, slugger Yordan Alvarez, as an in-season difference-maker in 2019 or perhaps become a regular next year.
Speaking of 2020, the Astros are set to head into then with questions in their rotation. Verlander and Brad Peacock will be back, Lance McCullers Jr. should return from 2018 Tommy John surgery, and any of the Astros’ starting prospects might step up to claim a rotation spot. Gerrit Cole will have a chance to leave for a mega-deal in free agency, however, and Wade Miley and Collin McHugh could also depart. Boyd would help cover for their losses, and he’d do so at an affordable price. He’ll make his second of four potential trips through arbitration during the upcoming winter, when he’ll earn a raise over his relatively negligible $2.6MM salary.
While Boyd could make a long-term impact for the Astros, they could also use a complement now to slot in with Verlander and Cole atop their rotation. Boyd arguably didn’t look up to the task in June when he allowed 19 earned runs and 10 homers in a five-start, 29-inning stretch. He still put up 41 strikeouts against five walks during that span, though, and boasts a more-than-respectable 3.72 ERA/3.57 FIP through 101 2/3 frames this season. Furthermore, with a stunning 11.42 K/9 against 1.77 BB/9, Boyd’s K/BB ratio ranks fifth among starters.
The Tigers are within reason to want a prospect-driven haul for Boyd, and the Astros just may be the ones who give it to them sometime this month. However, if Detroit’s dead set on getting Tucker as part of a Boyd package, it appears the club will have to look elsewhere.
Lets make this simple.. Boyd has no history of being successful, other than half a season and doesn’t have anything in his repertoire going forward to bank on going forward to dream on that continuing. boston gave up a pretty much non prospct in Jalen Beeks for eovaldi last july when he put together half a season prior and he throws 98+, then started using his slider more to keep hitters off balance.
Where is all this lunacy about Boyd being worth a fortune coming from? More than half a season of control for a journeyman pitcher?
Yeah it’s crazy, although the one difference is Boyd is that he has several seasons control. I don’t think he brings a top 50, maybe not even top 75 prospect back.
Problem? Astro have best pitcher current develop program. Boyd will be worth more after come and polish but not before.
So trade? Yield? Yes. And maybe top 100 and some low A ball lottery tickets.
Exactly. Look at Charlie Morton, for example. Or Ryan Pressly. Although it’s up to the individual to make the improvement, Strom, et al, sure seem to get the best out of pitchers.
Houston has a glut of good outfielders. I can see Derek Fisher going in a deal, along with, say, Tyler White and a lower tier prospect. Overpay? I don’t think so. Fisher is good and White needs a change of scenery.
Are you suggesting a Fisher and White for Boyd?
If they are the 2nd and 3rd parts of the deal maybe imo
So spare parts for Boyd? Nice try.
No, this is fine. It’s when people start talking about guys like Kyle Tucker that it gets nuts.
Nobody, I repeat NOBODY, wants Tyler White. Love or hate him, the Astros are stuck with him.
The Astros could DFA him, and they may, but I do think someone would sign him for cheap.
It’s the trade deadline. He’s a young, controllable pitcher with a sub 4.00ERA. For some reason they are worth the farm this time of year.
Ben I know we already debated (in a good way) Boyd’s value but I think you and others are underestimating his value. I totally understand why you have your opinion for sure. I think most people around baseball see his breakout as legit and if it is legit than why wouldn’t the Tigers put a huge price tag on a potential #2SP that is cheap and under control for 3.5 yrs?
Dustin, honestly I don’t think the Tigers move him. When you you trade for a guy like this you trade for his present value or just over, hoping you get his future increase in value as surplus. If you’re 60% sure he’s much better, you don’t pay the price for the much better guy and hope you’re right, you try to buy a little over his present value. I actually believe in some of Boyd’s breakout, but no team is paying for Boyd as a #1 or #2 based upon three months results. And let’s be honest, the “breakout year” we’re talking about is an improved Boyd, not a number 1 or 2 type starting pitcher year. He has a 3.72 ERA and a 3.58 FIP. The strikeouts and WHIP are good, but he’s playing in a huge park and a bad division. A 3.58 ERA estimator is probably accurate given park and opponent adjusted figures. That’s three months track record as a #3, maybe a #2.
The Tigers on the other hand, should have no desire to move him unless they get real quality in return, which you’re unlikely to get because of the above. They have plenty of control, and with the current value are better off just waiting a year to see if they can increase his value with a track record, rather than just taking a non-franchise altering return now. They ultimately probably will have to move him next year, as he’s unlikely to be around when the team contends again, at least not for more than a year. But the Tigers should hold unless they get a good return, if they believe in Boyd, and drive up the price by getting the track record there.
Great points Ben. I will say all it takes is one team who believes in this Boyd and a little desperate to make that offer…
My prediction is Philly gives up Brohm+ to get Boyd this deadline.
Sure Dustin, Bohm has struggled a bit, at least with power. I could see that deal.
“Lets make this simple.” – said about a thing that is not simple at all.
“Boyd has no history of being successful, other than half a season” – ah yes, the “hes been bad when he was bad and good when he was good but Im saying he’s bad because he was bad one time” narrative, like a dumb wine it gets dumber every year.
“journeyman pitcher” – been on the same team for like almost all his career / you don’t understand how players can improve over time / worst post ever
Troll.
Well put Strike Four… well put.
Great job, strike four. You are wonderful at putting window dressing on garbage. You dismiss out of hand a players track record. Good when he was good? When was he good? Oh right, right now! You could be the worlds best used car salesmen. The car is running great right now!
The fact is track record DOES matter. Everyone thought Corbin was really emerging but once he was figured out, that he depends to much on swing and miss out of the strike zone, he went back to being a no.4 pitcher.
Lets just let the Astros decide if his non-existant track record of success is worth it. Good when he was good? Right. It’s so so when he was so so with one fleeting moment where he was pretty good. Saying Boyed is good is like saying its sunny outside on an overcaste day because we saw sun light for a fleeting moment.
This is a terrible take. Boyd’s changes are real, every stat backs it up…including the statcast data and the changes he’s made to his repertoire. The Astros know this. Matt Boyd is not the same pitcher he was. Teams look at future performance, not past performance…at least the smart ones.
CURRENT performance shows him regressing back to the mean. He’s not an ace pitcher, so he doesn’t deserve an ace haul. He’s a solid #3, and a #2 for probably 12-15 teams (non playoff bound). He should fetch a decent package, but for people to assume he deserves elite prospects is silly.
Additionally your last statement is completely false as historical data backs up the fact that teams pay for PAST performance, not future. They overpay for future hopes, but it’s rooted in past performance.
A solid #2SP/good #3SP for a playoff rotation with 3.5 yrs control gets more than a “decent” haul imo.
That is a very valuable commodity!!
Decent to me means very good. He’s just not going to fetch an elite prospect is all I’m saying. He will get 2-4 very good prospects in a return though.
That is how teams did it in the past. They tried projecting future stats by looking at past stats. I can tell you from first hand experience that is not how the good teams operate anymore. They project based on what they think they can get in the future alone. With an arsenal like Boyd’s, which is getting better, it does not surprise me that the Astros one of the most forward thinking teams have interest. Matt Boyd is not a middling #3 starter.
Jose Quintana was considered a solid 2 or 3 when he was traded. He was also controlled for about he same amount of time and wasn’t in the top 5 for k to bb ratio which definitely foretells good times ahead. White Sox only got Cease, Eloy and two more prospects for him.
Boyd is considered only a solid 2-3 outside of Detroit. Quintana when traded had a 9.4 K/9 which isn’t far off from Boyd. The two are actually a good comparison all things considered as well.
Valuable, but you don’t trade franchise-altering pieces for it.
9.4 compared to 11 is pretty far off lmao
They pay the price for current performance though, while looking at future performance. And dude, he has a 3.58 FIP. That’s decent, but not #1 or top end #2 even.
That’s 14th in baseball ahead of Kershaw and Verlander. That’s a 1 or 2 bud.
3.58 FIP is? It’s actually 20th, which is better than one would expect. You may have been looking at XFIP. But FIP takes out the outliers that ERA let’s in. Here’s what’s wrong though, or I should say what’s missing. Certain pitchers, like Verlander especially, but Kershaw as well, consistently outperform their FIP. Many of the #1’s and a chunk of the #2’s do. The problem is that we don’t have that kind of track record on Boyd. And it takes that to say a guy is a one or a two. Are you saying you’d rather have Boyd then them? Of course you’re not. Because he’s not on that level. The point was, his breakout looks pretty good but not crazy, and given his history there’s reason to question whether it will continue on this sample size.
Looking at the drastic changes he made his stats are for real and yes I was looking at XFIP. Top 20 in FIP is still a top 3 guy. Quintana with the same amount of control coming off a down year got the white Sox eloy, cease and two other minor leaguers. If you think Boyd won’t command a similar haul then you don’t know baseball. ESPECIALLY when there are no more waiver trades past the deadline.
If Luhnow wants him, he’s been right much more than he’s been wrong, which is why he remains GM. I’ll trust him if he trades for Boyd. Important thing: we won’t get him without a valuable trade piece. My own opinion is he’s worth Tucker. He might even be worth Alvarez. The objective is to win the World Series, last I heard, and you don’t do that by giving away run after run with unreliable pitching, rotation and bullpen. Other than Verlander and Cole, Houston’s 2019 pitching has been a comedy of disaster.
People go on and on about wanting to throw Tyler White into a trade, but if you don’t want him with the Astros, what makes you think anyone else wants the boy? Give up the pretense that White has value, and embrace the fact that we’ll have to give them something valuable to get Boyd. One way or another, Luhnow has proven his worth as a GM, so let’s trust the guy to make the right call here.
Tucker maybe but not Alverez. I wouldn’t take him straight up for Yordan.
I have read some of the Astros and Astros fan analysis on the web…Astros know Boyd is the “real deal” and probably lowers his ERA at least 1 full point pitching with that great Astros Defense behind him and with the benefit of the Astros very strong analytics dept..
Actually, not even that. Two good months last season, two good months this season. Both times, April and May. Not sure why any team would want to give top prospects for a guy who can only pitch well the first two months of the season. And this is coming from a Tiger fan.
Don’t blame Avila for asking for the moon and stars for him. Never know what you can get until you ask. What would disappoint me is if Boyd gets traded for middling prospects. That is probably all he is worth, but we have enough of them in our system. We need impact prospects. IF Avila can’t get them, Boyd has more value to the Tigers and he should stay a Tiger.
Tigerdoc
Is a similar ERA in back to back June’s mean the two years will mirror each other the rest of the year? If you dig a little deeper you will see this June is different than last June. Boyd still having elite K/BB rates THIS June suggest the rest of the year could easily be similar to April and May.
Boyd is not the same pitcher as last year not sure why you continue to assume he is and will be. Saying he is only worth middling prospects is not what neutral baseball experts would say imo.
Eovaldi was an injury prone rental. Players with several years of control always bring a higher return. Since when is Boyd a journeyman pitcher? He’s been on 2 teams in 7 years.
Eovaldi was also a pending free agent…
Matthew Boyd has no less history than anyone Houston would trade for him.
Well, yeah, of course when you’re trading for prospects, that has to happen.
Yes he does either Stroman or Minor would cost less and have much more history.
Preach! I don’t understand the hype around Boyd. Hope my team doesn’t go after him, and much less give up anything significant for him if he is the route they go for pitching
If you don’t understand it, then leave it to the baseball pros….Astros, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals etc all seem to understand Boyd’s value and high market value….Not many starters available…Big Demand for Starters….Big Demand for cost controlled for 3 1/2 years, young LHSPs….
Analytics have rated Boyd in the Verlander and Scherzer territory for much less money and many more years of control and younger too…
Boyd is not a guy a club is going to pick up for a low ball offer for scrub players or almost DFA guys that your team does not want….
Astros need to either use Tucker or trade him
Sure, but this isn’t how. Also, isn’t Tucker only 22?
No. But they do need to use Derek Fisher or trade him…
This. Springer is gone next year so we still need Tucker. Fisher is expendable. Keep Marisnick and Straw as the 4th/5th OFers.
Doesn’t Springer have next year too? I think he’s a free agent after 2020.
Springer FA after 2020
Bukauskas may be a guy here. There’d have to be more but that’s realistic. Not sure if the Tigers would value Boyd more though, I probably would.
Bukauskas and a hitter like Derek Fisher or Tyler White. Maybe throw in a low prospect.
That’s a very fair package.
If the package does not hurt you to give it up than most likely it is not fair…Just saying…
Bukauskas WOULD hurt as his ceiling is arguably higher than Boyd’s. That’s why I said it’s a fair trade.
lol……a guy who can’t pitch in AA and a 4A player for a sp with 4 years of control who is on pace to put up 7 WAR? What are you smoking? Going to take 2 top 100s as a starting point to get boyd. Astros don’t have to do that,tigers will just go to the next team then.
You’re no guru. Nobody is giving up 2 top 100’s for Boyd.
Stick with what you have then. Thats what his surplus value is. Not going to get a 7 war player for all the scrubs you don’t want.
7 War * 8$MM/War *3.5 years of control – Arb dollars = surplus value of 100+$MM. Tigers need 100$MM dollars of prospect value or something close to it. Even if you discount his war to 4, its still over 100$MM. Corbin Martin is worth 20 $MM as a propsect according to FG. You do the math. Kyle tucker is probably worth around 50$mm, maybe even less as he cant hit in MLB.
Yeah I appreciate the Fangraphs evaluation, but you’re just looking at this year and not his track record. Those evals in terms of prospect $ to WAR include the player’s whole history, not just the last 3 months. He’s not going to evaluated as a 7 WAR player, and probably not even a 4 WAR player. You’re vastly overvaluing Boyd in this equation. Average out his career WAR, then get a value on Boyd. Then the equation works.
White is a .694 OPS DH. He’s not going anywhere but AAA.
Would the Tigers take white as a fourth piece? Probably. Their offense is pretty anemic. Fisher, Bukauskas, and Freudis Nova. That would be a haul for Matt Boyd. Boyd with all his improvements still has a HR problem. Unless he fixes that HR problem he can’t be better than what he is now. That’s a great haul for him if they could get that. I don’t see any chance they get Kyle Tucker and certainly not Whitley.
He’d be an upgrade at 3B over what Detroit currently has, and that’s plain sad.
Tyler white hasn’t started a game at 3rd in his major league career.
Take one look at him and tell me you think he’s capable of doing so.’I don’t think so. They might take White if Houston would rather lose him that way rather than a DFA but he’d add literally nothing.
And as I say that they might not want to include Nova. They may prefer to give a guy up like Beer if they’re concerned about ultimate upside. Nova is obviously the poster boy of a high variance player. Could be a complete stud or a zero. At 19 we don’t know. But if he was the sticking in point in a Boyd deal and they truly believe in him I’d send him packing too. The Stros seem to find a way to unlock more out of the arms they like.
He can prep the daily buffet for Detroit!
Derek Fisher and Tyler White are days away from being DFA’d. They are not going to be a significant part of any package. Astros will probably have to pay extra to throw in Tyler White.
Since Tucker has regained some value this may be the time to trade him. 70 at bats does not define a MLB hitter, but he has looked lost against MLB pitchers thus far.
I don’t think they’ll want Tyler White because he doesn’t fit their window and hasn’t performed. At least not as the major piece. Fisher maybe.
I repeat: Nobody will want Tyler White. I doubt you could trade him to Detroit for more than a case of hot dogs. LOL
He’d devour the dogs before the Astros got em!
First question. Who? Second question. Is he having a career year or did he actually do something major to improve?
He has a dramatically improved slider. His slider is one of the most un hitable pitches in baseball. I’m pretty sure he’s top 5 in the league in strikeouts off his slider and batting average off his slider. And he’s 7th overall in the majors in Ks
Not impressed in the least….see John Silvers post and you’ll know how many feel about his unimpressive career to date…..
Yep breakout seasons are only allowed to be recognized in hindsight after multiple good years…Breakout seasons cannot be viewed that way in the midst of that said breakout season??
The term “breakout season” is grossly misused and overused, and it applies here. If he sustains the success over the entire season, it’s a breakout season. If he has two really good months and then shows regression, then it’s a breakout two months.
He could win the CY Young next season for all any of us know, however until he has sustainable success, there will be doubters. Heck, if he wins the CYA next season there will still be doubters.
Good luck Astros, they asked the Yankees for Torres, they’ll probably demand Altuve for him.
Yeah I don’t believe they asked for Torres. No one is that silly.
I am the Detroit Tigers. Can we have Torres? There. They just asked for Torres in front of your face. Now do you believe him?
No, I only believe you are that silly, not the Tigers.
They can ask for whatever they want. Means nothing.
The way it went was, Yankees offered Ellsbury for Boyd. Tigers said no and asked for torrez. It’s the only way to shut the Yankees up.
None of what he claims is true.
Yankees originally offered blake Rutherford, then they realized he was no longer with them.
Jealousy is a serious illness isn’t it?!
“Jealousy is a serious illness isn’t it?!” What are you going on about?
Estrada takes Rutherford’s place now….So…
Abreu
Estrada
Adams
Some NYY fans think that will get it done most of the time…It does not matter for who lol
Now there’s something we can agree on.
Yup, I’m jealous… I wish I thought so highly of “prospects” that never amount to anything.
Astros need in on MadBum and Will Smith, Myles Straw would be nice and Seth Beer and day Dean Deetz
If Houston is getting both of those it will take a much better headliner than Seth Beer.
Nah. Seth Beer would only be the #2 prospect in that deal. The headliner would be day Dean Deetz. You’ve probably never heard of him. Either that or you are confusing him with regular Dean Deetz. No player could be further from the truth. day Dean Deetz is the best prospect in baseball. He is a level 80 player. The Stros should actually be able to get MadBum, Smith and then some in return for day Dean Deetz straight up.
Astros should be ready to overpay in any trade with the Tigers after the way they robbed them in the Verlander deal.
Perez, Roger’s and Cameron for jv and tigers pay part of the cy young annual contender.
Perez has been hurt.
Roger’s is a defensive catcher.
Cameron is a strike out machine.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing not to mention predicting future injury issues…
Remember JV and his 2/56 million left was not so attractive at the time. No one was really beaten down Detroit’s door back then. JV passed through waivers in August BTW
I remember… mlbtr was saying Verlander was done and his contract was terrible.
What we actually said: mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/astros-to-acquire-justi…
Jeff, don’t let your facts ruin fans opinions on what never happened
Melchez V mlbtr round 10. MLBTR better watch their back if he hears one thing about Castellanos!
“$56 million over two years seems steep”…
“But Verlander is already 34 years of age and has quite a lot of mileage on his arm — durable though it may be — after 380 regular season MLB outings. While he owns a 3.49 ERA through more than 2,500 innings on the Major League hill, it’s fair to wonder when he’ll slow down. Indeed, those concerns rose to the fore as Verlander labored to a 4.96 ERA through his first 17 starts this season.”
Ahhh, thanks Jeff.
MLBTR has changed their story…. Castellanos is no longer “Unplayable”. He’s actually doing better of late. He might have some value.
Tucker and Whitley
Or
Kemp and White
Lofl on the second set.
And the first one. Both are unrealistic. Just pointing out the stupidity that will be on both sides. lol
Sorry bruh. With some of these Yankees fans offers you never know?
But it’s not just yankee fans. Their’s have been out there lately, but every team does it.
The Astros can’t give up Tucker for Boyd in part because Boyd doesn’t help them a ton against the righty heavy Yankees. Give me Anthony DeSclafani. No, he’s not as good as Boyd, but he wouldn’t be as expensive either. If you want a top guy then go with Stroman.
Boyd’s one start vs the Yankees this season: 6 1/3 1 run 13Ks. That’s the most the Yankees have struck out in any game this season.
Bird, Tauchman, Tulo and Wade were in that lineup. It was the 6th game of the year.
Boyd has a 5.90 era this June.
He’s an interesting arm. To expect him to be an Ace in YSIII in a pennant race and postseason is a significant gamble.
Thanks for bringing some relevant facts into that post from diller1340.
How’s is going for Boyd since?
His career numbers vs the Yankees are very good. Wade pinch hit for Tulo so not all of them played the whole game. He is also 7th in the mlb in Ks and is under arbitration control until after the 2020 season. Would be a quality #2 or 3 on any team. Especially if the Astros lose Cole after this season.
Under arb. control until after *2022 season my bad
He pitches tonight against the White Sox on the road.
Not making a judgement call on Boyd. I really don’t know what he is at this point. I like the K9 and bb9 stats, which have improved a lot this year.
I think we saw some regression in June and he’s never thrown more than 180 innings. 171 last year, already 101 this year.
Don’t know enough about him. He’s not a slam dunk Ace that you unload the farm for. Hopefully others who know more weigh in.
I have watched every single one of his starts since being traded to the tigers for David Price in 2015. He has improved every single season and could have much better stats this year if it wasn’t for the tigers having such awful defense behind him. I believe he will continue to improve for years to come. He has a elevated ERA in June solely due to the fact that he has been hurt by the home run ball but if he improves on that he could be the #2 or #3 on almost any team in the majors and is a huge discount in money to anyone near his level and is under team control until after 2022
Career 1-2 with a 5.57 era against the Yanks in 21 innings
Pitched 12 innings At YSIII 2.92 era 2 HR.
Not a whole lot to hang your hat on.
I don’t think you can derive much from an April start with 4 guys who weren’t replacement level.
He’s probably a better fit on the Astros with their ability to maximize potential. Yanks haven’t had the same results bringing in starters.
His Hr9 is right at career numbers at 1.5 per 9. So, I guess he regressed in June.
Putting Boyd in the ALE in YSIII and Fenway isn’t going to help him keep the ball in the park.
2 or 3 is nice, money is the concern of the owners. I think Yanks need more of a sure thing. They likely won’t get it because those guys are rarely available and they cost too much for Hal’s liking.
DJ, judge, voit, Sanchez, torrez, and superstar Frazier were in that lineup. Tulo only lasted 1 ab… wade replaced him.
Boyd is doing better season than cc, happ, and Paxton. But who cares about stats, right?
It’s one game, in April, against 5/9th’s of the full lineup and Boyd didn’t even get the win.
Can’t put much weight on that performance.
Your Twinkies should trade for him.
If he is homer prone in Detroit, what do you think would happen in Houston?
Verlander knows him. I’ll bet he’s weighed in.
Matt Boyd was pretty bad when he was JV’s teammate so Im imagining that kind of consultation isn’t what you’re hoping for.
They’re questioning whether is stats are somewhat lucky and likely to regress. That’s the evaluation here.
Yankees struck out 18 X in that game.
Boyd struck them out 13X
Yankees brought their “A” lineup: Judge, Sanchez, Torres, La Meiu, Voight, Bird, Frazier..etc..
Stop making lame excuses!
Syndergaard and lugo for Whitley and tucker
That’s intriguing.
Really astrosfan4life??
All the prospect loving you have shown and you are intrigued by that offer??
Give up Tucker for Boyd is crazy but to give up Tucker and Whitley for Syndergaard and his high 4 ERA and just 1.5 yrs of control is intriguing?
Thor has pitched at an elite level, Boyd has not (and hasn’t come close). Stop obsessing over someone who is not as great as you think.
2.5 years of control. Syndergaard wont cost that much at this point. If you said Whitley for Syndergaard and Lugo, the Mets better say yes. BVW might not but he’s going to have to face the reality of the team he has. Not good enough to win a thing.
Solid point.
Until Thor’s arm falls off. Again. I don’t think he’s durable enough to depend on, unless you’re the Mets” Circus.
Mets have over rated their farm system also…
Mets do not have the prospect capital to get Boyd and/or Greene
I think Matt Boyd is a good pitcher, but if the Astros were to trade Tucker for a SP, I think it would be a higher end SP, like Max Scherzer. That deal would be Tucker + for Max and some cash (since he’s owed so much)… part of me wonders if the tigers don’t want to trade w the Astros after the JV deal turned out to be pretty bad. Astros traded some “meh” prospects for him and the tigers paid the Astros money to get the deal done.
I think they would do it for Robby Ray, though.
I take that back – I thought he was doing a lot better than he is.
To the fans the JV trade was bad…to Chris Illitch, 40m in salary relief was a win. As a life long Tiger’s fan it’s been pretty obvious he’s not about winning as much as about saving money. (Although the garbage they signed in the off season begs to differ)
It was a terrible trade… I’m glad Verlander got a ring though.
If not Tucker, how about Straw, Bukauskas, Beer, and Nova for Boyd instead??
I think if you don’t get Tucker, Nova is an absolute must. tigers currently do not have a true top shortstop prospect in the organization.
That’s an overpay on the Astros part unless Greene is also included. I also don’t foresee the Astros parting with Nova as he is the replacement for Correa when his contract is up.
Tucker,MLB 72ab,0 hr 4 RBI 13k .141BA .236 OBP .203 SLG .439 OPS. Small sample but who is being realistic? Astro fans think because of Verlander they can get everyone cheap, remember only Houston bid on Verlander, with Boyd there is competition. Get him or face him on playoffs.
72 major league at bats has absolutely no effect on his trade value. Nowhere near a big enough sample size for teams to care.
And he wasn’t used correctly. You bring him up to play him. Hinch didn’t do that.
I don’t remember the exact numbers, but Bregman started off horribly in his first 50 or so AB.
Way off topic: Why aren’t the Astros looking at playing Yordan Alvarez at 1B? Why left field? We already have an outfield logjam between the Majors and the high farm system.
Verlander is at $27MM more per year than Boyd. Thats why they got him “Cheap”. Boyd is younger and less expensive, (though I am not comparing quality.) Excess value costs prospects. Verlander did not have foreseeable excess value to the extent Boyed does..
The prospect packages are terrible. I see Tyler White many times. He’s a DFA candidate.
I don’t see Boyd as anything more than a stabilizing force on the backend of the rotation. He’s worth adding, but not at a high price.
I could easily see him turning into the next Jose Quitana.
I think anyone saying White is being sarcastic. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s just thrown into whatever trade the Astros make. He’s not worth anything except a filler spot.
Maybe he can rediscover last year on another team?
I said that on here recently that he’s the current Quintana. Overhyped and will be a bad get if you pay high prospects (think Harder for Carlos Gomez).
Or Chris Archer, or even Marcus Stroman. This tier of pitchers is a crap shoot.
they will have to include tucker or the deal wont get done. book it.
on top of that Tucker hasn’t hit in MLB, i don’t even know if the tigers want him.
I don’t even think they close to a Tucker-caliber return.
6th in SIERA
14th in xFIP
7th in K/9
Those are the stats that the Yankees and Astros are looking at, and why the asking price is high.
Baukaskas, Stubbs, and either Fisher or Straw. Who hangs up?
Detroit would hang up. Remember, Detroit does not have to trade him. Remember also that there will be other teams shopping at the deadline and one would likely beat that offer. Don’t call me a homer either. I don’t root for either team.
That wouldn’t be a bad haul. I don’t think it will work on July 2 but it may get it done on July 31.
those are all 4a players. thats not even close to getting boyd. 4 years of control remaining and putting up stats as one of mlbs best this year. probalby going to have to include 2 top 100s. Boyd is on pace for 7 war this year, and you think astros could get him for garret stubbs, fisher, and jb buukaskas who struggles in AA?
They gave up 3 of astros top 10s for verlander who at the time had an era 4.5 and was already making 30$MM/yr….had very little surplus value. If Astros want boyd, they will likely have to include Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, or Tucker and Corbin Martin as a starting point. 3rd propsect would have to be a top 15 too.
When is the last time you’ve seen two top 100’s in a trade? And you think it’ll happen for Matt Boyd???
Your take for what the Astros would have to give up is absurd. It shows you aren’t a guru at all. The Astros wouldn’t trade Alvarez and Tucker together for ANY pitcher, much less Boyd who isn’t even a #2 on most (if not all) playoff teams.
The Astros wouldn’t trade Tucker for Boyd straight up. I am unsure if your take was even meant as being serious or if it was to be a troll.
Then, they won’t get Boyd!
I would be mightily tempted if the pitcher was Max Scherzer. However, Alvarez is tearing it up, and Tucker is still only 22. Bregman started out crap, and look at him now.
Avila’s problem is he expects teams to just roll over in negotiations. These teams are not budging and as the tigers continue to lose and get closer to trade deadlines they have less and less leverage. Hopefully they handle the trade with Boyd better than they did with others like JD.
Avila is playing it right….
Tigers are not going to just give Boyd away…
Teams either pay high market or “over pay” for Boyd realizing
that his value will rise on a pennant contending team with better defense and better analytics
OR Tigers just hang onto Boyd and the price is even higher next year..
The “value” of prospects vs. a current Major League player is a discussion that will go on as long as there is baseball. One factor not mentioned is what amount of “value” is placed on an “established” Major League ballplayer. By “established” I mean a player that has been able to successfully adjust to the rigors of MLB. The percentage of prospects that make it to the Bigs and stay for 4 or more years is very small.
Boyd had 18, 25,and 31 starts in the 2016-18 seasons. His IP have increased while his ERA and FIP has decreased every year. This year he is on track to improve on all those numbers too. He is moving in the right direction and is controllable for 3 more years at a very low base salary point. Nobody can guarantee any prospect will be having the same career path success.
Detroit does not have to trade Boyd by Aug. 1st and is in a strong position. You won’t get the World unless you ask for it. Now, the naysayers are also justified in looking at the June numbers with caution.
The type of package that Avila can demand will be decided in the next 2 starts before the All-Star break and the 2-3 starts afterward. If he performs well, my guess is Avila will not let him go for anything less than a “Tucker” quality like headline piece. He can just wait and have several more teams in the mix this Winter. Boyd’s value does not decrease by using up those two months to them. But his value in much greater in those two months for teams with the dream and opportunity of making the playoffs in 2019.
My guess is Avila will be looking for players that are expected to reach the Majors in late 2020 or later since Detroit will not be in the playoff hunt until ’22. It doesn’t make sense to get players that will have,(or have had) time running off their controllable clocks any sooner than that. Anybody who likes to put “realistic packages” together for fun between now and the deadline should think about that.
3.5 years of control and on pace to put up 7 war. Astros would have to give up 2 top 100s…starting with Kyle Tucker. The other would have to be Yordan or Martin. If astros don’t want to do that, then tigers will move on or keep him.
Yordan is literally untouchable. He’s probably one of the ten most valuable assets in the game at the moment based on price, control, and production.
I could understand if the Astros bit the bullet and traded Tucker and Martin. A steep price, tolerable.
Boyd’s next few starts really matter. Honestly though, I would prefer the Astros target a rental.
agreed.
Looking at Wade Miley’s sudden success, one would think Boyd would be ok in Houston.
Still, two questions for Houston….
– Is Boyd a lock to be one of your 4 starters in the postseason?
– Is he worth giving up what Detroit is looking for?
Houston would be better off going after a better pitcher with a shorter contract to give up less. Boyd would be the #4 at this point, Stroman would be the #3. Stroman is better, he’s the better option.
I prefer Stroman personally, but either him or Boyd would absolutely be the #4 starter at this point.
And, if that means 1 less prospect leaving the Houston organization you do the deal with Toronto rather than Detroit. Plus Houston can always QO Stroman when the time comes.
Shorter contract equals lower long-term risk. That’s all the more reason to go after Stroman.
they would not be able to QO Stroman if he is traded midseason so that lessens the value unfortunately for the stros
But also gives them leverage in trade talks.
If Hou trades for Stroman this year they could offer QO after his 2020 season and entering his free agency off season
Stroman is not a free agent until next year. Houston could QO him. Thank you for offering nothing.
Boyd is better than Peacock and Miley imo. I actually think Hou might slot Boyd between the JV and Cole in a playoff series.
He is better than Peacock, but Miley is statistically better than Boyd on the season. Boyd essentially only has more Ks and 11 less BBs than Miley. Miley has him in pretty much every other category.
Boyd may beat him in hype, but after looking at the stats…I’d take Miley thus far YTD. Boyd’s WAR is inflated by his Ks, but his WHIP is not good, which is telling of his ERA. He puts too many guys on that he cant strand.
Astrofan come on buddy. Boyd’s WHIP is lower than Miley’s and sits at 1.09. I bet that’s top 15-20 among starters without looking at any comparison. Miley has a lower ERA and XWOBA. The two pitching atyles are completely different. Miley is a GB generator while Boyd is a K pitcher who gives up more fly balls. Let’s keep things accurate. I’d start Boyd over Miley today in a postseason game. That’s not a ringing endorsement of Boyd either it’s just that Wade Miley is Wade Miley.
Really Astro4life??
Literally the only stat Miley has on Boyd this year is ERA and that is standard ERA only.
Boyd has a lot better K rate and BB rate. He pitches more innings per start.
He has a better WHIP and advanced stats like ERC etc…
That is all in front of bad overall defense with mostly AAAA guys around the whole diamond compared to multiple + defenders that Houston has around the diamond.
BABIP shows some luck Miley’s way as well:
Miley .245
Boyd .296
WHIP:
Boyd 1.09 16th
Miley 1.17 29th
K/9:
Boyd 11.42 7th
Miley 7.53 59th
BB/9:
Boyd 1.78
Miley 2.93
ERC:
Boyd 3.29 27th
Miley 3.37 31st
etc etc
Boyd doesn’t generate a ton of groundballs. He does generate a ton of flyballs so the bad defense theory wouldn’t really impact him very much. Now, if A GB pitcher like Miley was in Detroit that would make a big difference. Per statcast Miley has been generating a lot of soft contact .279 xWOBA v .313 for Boyd.
I’ll take Boyd over Miley in my rotation tomorrow if I had the choice. The rest of the numbers you listed above are in Boyd’s favor. If Miley didn’t have his own HR issues 1.3/9 (also far and away Boyd’s biggest problem at 1.5/9) you’d probably lean Miley here. I’ve also seen enough of Miley to form an opinion against picking him.
I misread and looked at career WHIP, so I will admit that mistake. They are two different pitchers to your point, but ultimately they have similar results. Many homers are trying to compare Boyd to #1s and he just simply isn’t a top tier SP. He’s much closer to Wade Miley than Max Scherzer.
Don’t apologize. JBigz and Dustin aren’t necessarily right and you aren’t necessarily wrong. I’d rather pitch in Detroit facing that division than Houston in the west. Sure, they can compare opponents and make the claim that Boyd is still better.
What they don’t understand is obtaining Boyd is not worth what Detroit is looking for. It would be a trade that could destroy the future of the organization, and Matt Boyd is not good enough for that. Bottom line, Stroman is the better pitcher and the guy you’d want to give the ball to in October over Boyd. It’s that simple. Spit Fangraphs all you want kids, you’d be that guy that really doesn’t watch baseball but want to talk about it.
Don’t expect him to get traded until this offseason unless he really lights it up the next 3 weeks. Too much ambiguity surrounding his future outlook but a full season of sub 3.70 era and improved K% will have several teams calling at the winter meetings.
Alvarez and Whitley are untouchable, Tucker seems to have lost that status though.
Tucker was matching Alvarez in terms of production in AAA before he was called up.
If any of the three (imo none of them are touchable) are touchable it is Whitley because of the dead arm issues this year.
Nova, Bukauskas, and Straw.
At some point teams need to stop asking for Tucker and Whitley. It’s really costing them excellent players to build around.
Almost every trade the Astros made in what people thought were below par value have turned into excellent players in comparison to what was traded or gave the team much needed value. Domingo Santana, Josh Hader, Joe Musgrove, Vincent Velasquez (when healthy) Colin Moron, etc.
I guarantee you the Astros have previously offered up Yordan Alvarez before this season in a trade and now everyone is kicking themselves for not taking him because he was Tucker or Whitley.
I get aiming high, but there is a need to realize just because someone is barely making the top 10 in the Astros organization doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable. It means the Astros are that deep and that number 9 prospect will probably be your number 1 rather easily.
Matthew Boyd for Wandy Rodriguez
Boyd is a #1 Starter who was on the short list for the AL All Star team….Struck out 13 Yankees in an April start at Yankee stadium. Just struck out 13 White Sox…
Recent analytics have Boyd rated as one of the top starters in MLB with analytics very close to Verlander and Scherzer for much less money and for 3 1/2 years team control for a coveted LH starter.
Boyd, like Verlander, is a Yankee killer who struck out 13 Yankees in an April start at Yankee stadium.
Lowballing the Tigers will not land Boyd….
Tigers probably looking for at least a Chris Archer return for Boyd
(Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz etc)…..
It will probably take a package of at least 4 top young players and prospects with big upside to land Boyd…
I don’t see the Tigers taking a lowball offer…
Tigers can just keep Boyd and roll him out there for 1, 2 or 3 more years until they get the right offer for Boyd…
Boyd would be the #1 Starter on some teams including NYY.
Boyd would slot in between Verlander and Cole on the Astros.
I have read extensive analytics reports posted by Astros fan sites on Boyd. They have info similar and more detailed to what I posted….
Boyd, like Verlander and Cole would blossom and become an even better LHSP
using the Astros analytics and pitching coaches…
Astros know this and that is why they are scouting Boyd heavily and will make every attempt to land Boyd.
Astros owner is very cognizant of keeping payroll under control..so he wants a controllable starter or 2 like Boyd to fill in the gaps in the Astros rotation by injuries and impending free agency of Gerrit Cole and others.
Astros do not want to pay top dollar in free agency and that is why they let Dallas Keichel go and why they are letting Gerrit Cole go…
Tigers have much more leverage with the Astros and they know it.
Ditto the Yankees who are also running up against the luxury tax…that Hal Steinbrenner does not want to go there…
Yankees know they are 1 or 2 impact Starters from another WS Championship.
Astros are in the same boat.
They have to pay high market value or overpay to get an impact top of the rotation piece like Boyd making only 2,6M and under team control for 3 1/2 years…
OR NO DEAL…
New Comment
Boyd is a #1 Starter who was on the short list for the AL All Star team….Struck out 13 Yankees in an April start at Yankee stadium. Just struck out 13 White Sox…
Recent analytics have Boyd rated as one of the top starters in MLB with analytics very close to Verlander and Scherzer for much less money and for 3 1/2 years team control for a coveted LH starter.
Boyd, like Verlander, is a Yankee killer who struck out 13 Yankees in an April start at Yankee stadium.
Lowballing the Tigers will not land Boyd….
Tigers probably looking for at least a Chris Archer return for Boyd
(Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz etc)…..
It will probably take a package of at least 4 top young players and prospects with big upside to land Boyd…
I don’t see the Tigers taking a lowball offer…
Tigers can just keep Boyd and roll him out there for 1, 2 or 3 more years until they get the right offer for Boyd…
Boyd would be the #1 Starter on some teams including NYY.
Boyd would slot in between Verlander and Cole on the Astros.
I have read extensive analytics reports posted by Astros fan sites on Boyd. They have info similar and more detailed to what I posted….
Boyd, like Verlander and Cole would blossom and become an even better LHSP
using the Astros analytics and pitching coaches…
Astros know this and that is why they are scouting Boyd heavily and will make every attempt to land Boyd.
Astros owner is very cognizant of keeping payroll under control..so he wants a controllable starter or 2 like Boyd to fill in the gaps in the Astros rotation by injuries and impending free agency of Gerrit Cole and others.
Astros do not want to pay top dollar in free agency and that is why they let Dallas Keichel go and why they are letting Gerrit Cole go…
Tigers have much more leverage with the Astros and they know it.
Ditto the Yankees who are also running up against the luxury tax…that Hal Steinbrenner does not want to go there…
Yankees know they are 1 or 2 impact Starters from another WS Championship.
Astros are in the same boat.
They have to pay high market value or overpay to get an impact top of the rotation piece like Boyd making only 2,6M and under team control for 3 1/2 years…
OR NO DEAL…