Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman is one of several prominent major leaguers who will have a chance to opt out of his contract after the season. Unlike a lot of his peers, there’s seemingly a realistic shot Chapman will vacate the remainder of his deal.
The Cuban fireballer briefly discussed his future with Ken Davidoff of the New York Post during this week’s All-Star festivities, saying through an interpreter: “Honestly, I haven’t been thinking about that at all because through these years, I’ve dealt with some injuries. So the concentration and the focus was to stay healthy this year and try to have a good season. It hasn’t even crossed my mind.”
Chapman’s in his second go-around with the Yankees, who acquired the superstar left-hander for a fairly underwhelming package of players from the Reds in December 2015 amid troubling domestic violence allegations. The league suspended Chapman for the first 30 games of 2016, but he came back to dominate on the mound with New York that year. The Yankees weren’t surefire contenders when the summer rolled around, though, and Chapman was on the cusp of free agency. Consequently, they traded him to the Cubs in a win-win deal. The Yankees landed middle infielder Gleyber Torres, then an excellent prospect and now a terrific 22-year-old major leaguer. The Cubs, with Chapman’s help, won their first World Series in 108 years.
Fresh off his championship with the Cubs, Chapman rejoined the Yankees heading into 2017 for a five-year, $86MM payday. That’s still the largest guarantee ever awarded to a reliever. Chapman will have another two years and $30MM left on his contract after this season, but considering the way he has pitched, the soon-to-be 32-year-old could try his hand in free agency again.
Now a six-time All-Star, Chapman has avoided injuries in 2019 and recorded a matching 1.82 ERA/1.82 FIP with 12.98 K/9, 3.12 BB/9 (one of the lowest walk rates of his career) and a 45.2 percent groundball rate over 34 2/3 innings. Chapman has racked up 24 saves in 27 tries in the process, giving him 260 on 290 tries in his career. Adding to Chapman’s appeal, Statcast regards him as elite or close to it in strikeout percentage, hard-hit rate, exit velocity against, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average.
If you’re looking for negatives, Chapman’s K/9, although hefty, is the second-worst mark of his career. Meanwhile, Chapman’s swinging-strike percentage (12.3) is a personal low, merely above average and far less than his lifetime figure (16.8). A drop in four-seam velocity has possibly contributed to Chapman missing fewer bats, though his 98 mph heat remains plenty imposing, and the 99.9 average on his sinker – a pitch he uses just over 10 percent of the time – is jaw-dropping.
All things considered, Chapman has a legitimate case to head back to the open market, where he’d again be the most proven closer available. Unlike his previous trip to free agency, though, Chapman would surely come with a qualifying offer attached. The Yankees wouldn’t simply let him walk for nothing.
Why would he even bother after watching what happened to Kimbrel?
as much as you can see how he can make more money, the relief market was quite weak last offseason, and he’s getting a QO if he opts out. Kimbrel 2.0 most likely.
A 32 year old closer walking away from $34M to go back into FA is a risky decision. I guess since Kimbrel got 3/43, there’s a chance Chapman could get that extra year too. Closers are just so fragile, and most teams are steering away from their large contracts.
A big second half for Chapman would open the opt out possibility. Like Cespedes. If Chapman wants more years of guaranteed money he will get it, but maybe only for 1 extra year. Dominant Chapman opens that door.
Then again, JD Martinez could in-theory opt out and re-sign with Boston for, say, 4 years at 70 mil. Less per season, gives Boston (some) breathing room at the Luxury. Not saying it would ever happen. In fact, it probably won’t.
Chapman will obiliterate a 2/34 if he keeps this up. He’ll easily get 4/60 from any number of teams. Kimbrel could’ve gotten that also had he not played around with 100 million dollars in his head all spring.
Considering he doesn’t want to play for a west coast team, that eliminates the deep pockets of SF, LAD and LAA. Boston already passed on Kimbrel, so why would they give a big offer to Chapman who is older and his K rate is decreasing? And if he walks away from the Yankees, he has now eliminated 5 big market teams. 4 years would be a big risk.
Striking out nearly 13 per 9 is still elite. They put that in the article because he averaged an insane 16 per 9 last year. He has had some fluctuation in his K rate over his career. His numbers are absolutely elite. I’d rather him striking out 13 per 9 and walking 3 than K’ing 16 and walking 5 last year anyhow. There’s no shortage of teams who would die to have him at 2/34. If he opts out and can’t find the 4/60 (which I seriously doubt) he’ll get a 2/36 in a heartbeat. There is no way he can’t match that offer. There’s just no argument for that.
And where do you hear that Chapman hates the west coast? That sounds like another, “Patrick Corbin loves NY so much he’ll take a discount” crap. Feelings tend to change when there’s millions more coming your way
Chapman’s list of no trade protection is Seattle and any team located in California. That’s where I got that.
That’s a fair point. But if 60 million dollars is on the table versus 30. Preferences can easily change. I’m sure his preferred solution would be an extension from NY. But if that doesn’t materialize he has to test the waters with only 30 million bucks left on his deal.
Chapman will likely threaten to opt out, and in return get an added year of $15M and possibly full no trade. Or they could throw away the remaining 2 year $30M and give him 2/40. It’s anyone’s guess how this will pan out.
We definitely don’t know but there’s no way his market isn’t much stronger than 2/30. Whatever the decision is I’m sure it’ll involve Chapman getting more money one way or the other.
Will he do better than 17 mil per on the open market? I don’t think so
If gets a 3 year deal he will get more.
Question off topic but closer related
If Francisco Mejia brought in an All Star RP in Brad Hand and a very good RP in Adam Cimber
What could/would Christian Pache realistically pull in a similar trade scenario ?????
Will you please stick to the subject of the article.
The subject of whether the closer of arguably the best team in baseball will opt out of his contract at season end ????
17 days from the 1st ever single trade season date and the topic of an opt out is what is being posted.
Sorry the topic is stupid and I want to get the opinion of the many intelligent ppl on here on a topic that is more relevant than an opt out clause in mid July.
And I am limited in time today to wait around until a post that may be relatable pops up.
I stated it was off topic and I am far from the only person on here to ever post unrelated to a topic.
Saying you’re not the only one don’t make it right bro!
Giles and Stroman.
Doesn’t matter. Pache isn’t going anywhere. They’d trade arms, not bats.
Dodgers needed him. They should have grabbed him when they had the chance……
He may find a taker in FA, but any team dumb enough to give Chapman a 3rd or 4th year deserves the decline the’ll get.
If I’m the Yankees and he opts out I’d offer him the QO and let him walk. Chapmans success is base on throwing 100 mph gas. As he moves into his mid 30’s that velo is likely to begin its decline. I’m fine with 2/$30m going forward, but I would be hesitant to go any longer than that.
It’s going to be an interesting decision for Chapman should be continue to perform without issue till seasons end. Relievers are getting paid, but Kimbrel’s situation has thrown a little shade on the FA closer market. A 33 year old Chapman on the open market gets……..? It’s an open question. I could see a team in need of some certainty in the 9th throwing 3 years at him, but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if teams limit offers to 2. It’s going to be interesting to see. The AAV is another curiousity. Does he get more than $15m per? I think he opts in personally, but I’m not certain of it.
He’s pitched better this year than Kimbrel did last year. Unless he blows up down the stretch, he can absolutely do better than 2/30m.
I think the most likely scenario is the Yankees add another 2/30m onto the end of his existing deal in exchange for him not opting out.
The problem guys like Kimbrel and Chapman face isn’t that they aren’t inarguably great pitchers, it’s that there’s a point of diminishing returns with pitchers like that. Not that they aren’t the best late inning relievers out there, but a lot of pitchers can provide the same basic results without being quite as dominant. That’s going to be reflected in their contracts.
The focus the Yankees have put on stacking it over the last few years suggests they don’t agree. It’s a good strategy for a team with essentially unlimited resources that expects to be in the playoffs every year.
Not sure what that has to do with what I said.
You said there’s diminishing returns in stacking a bunch of great relievers. Based on the personnel decisions the Yankees have made, I don’t think they agree.
Except he has a filthy slider too. And he’s a lefty. Pay attention to the deadline and see how much a guy like Watson or Smith get relative to rhp counterparts.
Will Watson or Smith get more than Kimbrel? Highly, highly doubt that.
Smith may.
Not because he’s a lefty, just because he’s 5 years younger and having a better season. He has a much shorter track record as an elite reliever, though.
I don’t think righty or lefty matters, although there’s probably a premium for either if they don’t have a severe platoon split.
Smith is 30 years old with just 38 career saves. In my opinion, I don’t give him more money than Chapman or Kimbrel. 3/36 would be the offer I give Will Smith.
I can’t see smith going for less than 4/48 or maybe a Kimbrel-esque 3/43. I don’t think 36 does it. Too good and left handed. If he topped that it wouldn’t surprise me.
Smith has almost no track record. Look at his career ERA: 3.53… or career rWAR: 3.7… he’s 29 and his whole career is worth like one elite season of an elite closer and you want to pay him like one.
Clown take. Put Smith’s last 2 seasons up against anyone in baseball. Take a look at his last 4 while you’re at it. They’re very good to elite seasons. Btw if you’re going to give me a career ERA please don’t do so for a guy who used to be a Starting Pitcher. Absolutely useless number you just slapped up there that was inflated by his year as a starter.
And to stay on topic if Chapman were to opt out it would be the best thing to happen to the Yankees. That bullpen is stacked and the closer position could easily be replaced. Maybe not as good as Chapman but definitely cheaper.
I don’t know if they can offer a QO on an opt out but if they could that could keep negotiations in their court cause a team would not want to give up that pick
Again a terrible topic this close to the only trade deadline date. And a waste of time.
If you’d like to choose the topics, then start your own website.
Stating my opinion if you don’t like it don’t read it
My guess, Chapman threaten to opt out unless the yankees tack on more money and more years. An extension will be signed, end of story.
Oh good, end of story. We can all log off now.
I see that MJ reported me to the moderators because I was making him look foolish. Harper didn’t take the highest AAV. Neither do many players. It’s about the guarantee and total money for security. $25M was NOT Harper’s highest AAV offered, but $330M was.
MJ took his ball and went home.
Then he told his mother to call your mother.
His opinion is the only one that counts.
Well, he did call “checkmate” even though my bishop took his king.
It’s all fun and games until a narc reports you
He reported you? Maybe he’s JDGoat’s burner account?
When you reply to a specific person and it pops up, “under moderator review”, that means that person flagged you. i.e. reported you.
Weak….
Can’t see it being worth the risk. Would anyone really offer way more than NY is already on the hook for?
Holy cow there is some dummies up top. First off, Chapman is a lefty. Way more valuable than a comparable righty. Also, he does love NY, so I wouldn’t put it out of question he resigns for less money to stay than to go, but yeah, he’s definitely opting out. Guy could get a 3-4 year deal. The dodgers are likely interested. The cubs have $$ coming off the books. Other contenders like Philly and the Nats could use a closer. This guy will have no worries finding a suitor. My guess he sticks with Yankees on 3yr-51MM deal with option for 4th year.
Chapman’s current contract of AAV is as follows. $16M in 2017. $20M in 2018. $20M in 2019. $15M in 2020. $15M in 2021.
So basically you’re saying Chapman should/might get a 1 year, $20m extension? That’s the same as opting out and getting a 3 year/$51m deal except this let’s us backload his contract a little bit. So I agree!
The Yankees could trade Chapman after the season to any team except Seattle, SF, SD, Oakland, LAA or LAD. They could offer full trade protection to keep him from opting out.
What are you talking about?
Those 6 teams are on his no trade list in his contract. That means there are 23 other teams the Yankees can trade him to. If they give him full no trade protection, he might not opt out. That’s what I’m talking about.
I don’t see Chapman opting out, as he said he has had some injuries, and the Yanks are the only team that could withstand an injury to their closer and stay in contention.
Would love to see him opt out, and Boston offer him a three year contract, maybe 4
If he opts out Yanks should let him walk and resign Betances and ya him, Britton, and Green in a shared closer role!
Save money and use somewhere else perhaps for Garrit Cole.
Or the Yankees could still go after Gerrit Cole with Chappy because they’re the Ny Yankees . They have no need to operate like the Cleveland Indians.
The Yankees will be going after Gerrit Cole no matter what.
The only competitors will be on the west coast where he can surf all year long.
His brother in law Brandon Crawford is the shortstop for the Giants.
It’s close. Usually when it’s close the safe bet is on the player not opting out.
I don’t see how it’s close. Take a 2/34 and go to FA when you’re 33 or opt out and try to get a longer deal at 31 off a very good/elite season. Barring a collapse or injury how does he not opt out? Kimbrel would’ve beat that deal this offseason had he been amenable to it from the get go. Coming off a statistically worse season and an awful postseason.
This isn’t Kenley Jansen who is showing serious signs of regression. Chapman looks about as good as ever. Don’t think this is a close call at all personally.
It is close because he seems to enjoy his stay in NY and the QO inhibits signing.He may also not want to go through the pain of free agency.I think that Chapman still is one of the best and has stayed that way for many years.My guess is that he tries to get an extra premium year from the Yankees then at 35 it will become a free agent crap shoot as to whether he can demand any AAV or years.
He’s too good, he won’t experience pain in FA. No way. But Yanks may extend anyway.
I don’t think he’ll have any issues finding a 3 year deal at a premium AAV. If the Yankees put him up for sale right now they’d have the phone ringing off the hook trying to get this guy. I’m positive the Dodgers would love to add him to their back end. QO compensation is not going to limit his market lower than 34MM. The price isn’t all that steep if he signed under 50MM either. That comfortably gives him space to beat the deal he currently has. But I’m sure a team like the Dodgers would gladly pay the over 50 MM draft pick compensation price as well.
30 million. I kept putting 34 on my posts I see. That makes the opt out that much easier of a decision. I don’t see anyway in hell he doesn’t opt out of a 2/30. Kimbrel got a 3/43 and skipped 1/3 of the season. This should be a cut and dry case assuming he doesn’t get hurt or completely implode.
It would have to be at least two years. The Yankees may let him walk. They have other guys who can close.
An opt-out, followed by a QO, followed by a multiyear contract with another team might make the best sense for both parties.
How does he not know English by now?
He does speak some English, haven’t you seen him talking to teammates? What language do you you think CC & him were speaking when Sabathia made a mound visit in the all star game? He just doesn’t feel comfortable enough with his command of English to speak to the media, which is understandable. Same goes for a lot of our Spanish speaking guys
Have you guys watched Chapman pitch this season? His numbers look good but on the field he looks significantly worse. 3/4 of the time he can’t get his fastball over the plate and is going to his slider on 3-0. At some point his luck is going to run out and the money you’re talking about is going to look amazing – he’s worth 20/2 or 25/2 tops – he’d be smarter to stay on (although I REALLY hope he doesn’t).
I think the biggest point some people here are missing is that neither the Yankees nor Red Sox were bidding for Craig Kimbrel this past offseason. That can change for Chapman if he opts out.
I doubt he opts out because the Yankees are going to prioritize keeping him. Cash will probably offer him another 2 year deal worth around $30m. So, in that scenario, he’d then be signed for 4 years (2020-2023) for $60m. That’s a lot of financial security for a reliever – and probably enough to keep away any potential suitors.
Even if my 2 year/$30m extension idea isn’t enough, I’m sure Cashman will offer whatever IS enough to extend Chappy & avoid the inevitable bidding war that will ensue if he opts out.
Zero chance he opts out. He’s already rich and after the Kimbrel fiasco any reliever that opts out of a guaranteed $15 million per for the next two years is silly. No team will offer him more than 3 years or more than his current annual salary of $15 million. It’s simply not worth the risk.
You’re setting yourself up to be floored in a couple months.