The opt-out clause is now a permanent fixture in the large-contract toolkit. Not every deal has one, but they’re a common mechanism to allow players and teams to tweak otherwise rigid structures to find accord. Fortunately for hot stove watchers, opt-out clauses — really, glorified player options — create added layers of complexity and intrigue for significant players.
Let’s check in on the opt-out decisions forthcoming at the end of the 2019 season:
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Three years, $43MM: Andrus is in an interesting spot as he nears his 31st birthday. He’s posting league-average numbers at the plate thus far in 2019 with a blend of a high batting average, scant walk rate, and decent power. Statcast indicates he has overperformed a bit, which was also the assessment based upon the batted-ball data in his successful 2016 and 2017 campaigns. (The opposite was true last year, a down season at the plate.) There’s a split on the defensive side between UZR (which grades Andrus as excellent) and DRS (the opposite); given his long history, it seems fair to say Andrus is still plenty capable of handling short. He’s ticking up on the basepaths, having already swiped 19 bags after taking just five last year. It’s still possible to imagine this situation going one way or the other, depending upon how Andrus finishes out the year and what his personal preferences are. On balance, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll have much greater earning power than the existing contract — particularly since he’d assuredly be dragging draft compensation if he opts out (which would make it an easy choice for the Rangers to issue him a qualifying offer).
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Phillies: One year, $20MM (unless Phillies exercise two-year, $40MM option for 2021-22): Unless Arrieta completely flips the script hard down the stretch, there’s almost no way it’ll make sense on paper for him to opt out. His useful but uninspiring 2018 effort has given way to a messy 2019 campaign, with the problem areas of the past few seasons coming fully to roost. Arrieta is through 108 innings in 18 starts, so he remains a dependable rotation piece, but he’s coughing up 4.67 earned per nine with just 7.1 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. While he is again drawing grounders on over half the balls put in play against him, he’s also allowing dingers on one in five flies. At 33 years of age, Arrieta seems to be on the career arc of James Shields moreso than that of Zack Greinke.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Yankees: Two years, $30MM: We initially missed this one when we rounded up the year’s opt-out opportunities. That stings doubly since Chapman arguably has the best case for bailing on the rest of his contract. 32 next February, the southpaw remains a force at the back of the Yanks’ bullpen. Through 34 2/3 innings this year, Chapman carries a 1.82 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. While many other pitchers are seeing their dinger rates rise, he has allowed only a single ball to leave the yard. His swinging-strike rate is down to a personal-low of 12.3%, and Chapman is averaging only 98.2 mph with his average four-seam fastball — though he’s still over 100 with a sinker that he has utilized more than ever. There’s some market competition from excellent lefty Will Smith, and Chapman can be issued a qualifying offer by the Yankees, but there’s plenty of reason to think Chapman would be hotly pursued in free agency.
Yu Darvish, RHP, Cubs: Four years, $81MM: Darvish is consistently making starts, which is more than could be said last year, but the Cubs’ Arrieta replacement has not been anywhere close to good enough to spurn those remaining earnings. As he closes in on his 33rd birthday, Darvish is giving up free passes (4.5 BB/9) and long flies (1.86 per nine, 25.3% HR/FB) by the bucketful. There are some positive signs that leave the door open for a turnaround — his 93.9 mph average fastball and 12.2% swinging-strike rate sit right at his career means — but they aren’t going to change the contractual outcome here.
Jason Heyward, OF, Cubs: Four years, $86MM (assuming he makes 550 PAs): Heyward still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday and is in the midst of a bit of a renaissance at the plate. After two brutal campaigns, he crawled back to league-average production in 2018. Now, he’s slashing .266/.355/.457 (110 wRC+) with 14 home runs and a career-high 12.0% walk rate through 332 plate appearances in 2019. We haven’t seen this kind of pop from Heyward since way back in 2013. There are some limits to the good vibes, however. Heyward continues to grade well defensively in right field, but metrics have panned his work in center. And he has been abysmal against left-handed pitching, cobbling together a .188/.246/.281 slash without the platoon advantage. That profile isn’t going to command a payday that comes close to what Heyward already has in hand.
Kenley Jansen, RHP, Dodgers: Two years, $38MM: Much like teammate Clayton Kershaw, Jansen is now merely excellent, rather than exceptional. The veteran closer looks much the same this year as he did last, with still sparkling K/BB numbers (11.8 K/9 vs. 1.7 BB/9) but a vulnerability to the long ball that did not exist at his peak. Over his past 108 1/3 innings, dating to the start of the ’18 campaign, Jansen has allowed more than 1.5 dingers per nine with a HR/FB rate of greater than 15 percent. Though his swinging-strike rate has trended back up this year (to 16.0%, just over his career average but below his ceiling), his average fastball velocity has continued its inevitable descent (now to 92.0 mph). Jansen will turn 32 at the very end of the season. There’s still a possibility that he could secure a slightly larger overall contract on the open market if he finishes strong, particularly since Jansen can’t be hung with a qualifying offer. Wade Davis got $52MM over three years at the same point on the age spectrum. But that possibility may not be worth the risk, particularly after Craig Kimbrel fell shy of expectations in free agency.
J.D. Martinez, DH/OF, Red Sox: Three years, $62.5MM: This one could be interesting, particularly given that several of the most productive potential free agents decided to avoid the market by inking extensions. Martinez is going to have a fairly limited potential pool of suitors, which will impact the decisionmaking. He’s also a candidate to receive a qualifying offer, which won’t help. It doesn’t sound as if he much of an idea yet whether he’ll trigger the opt out. The second-half performance will be key here. Martinez has now fallen off of the phenomenal levels of offensive production he carried in the prior two seasons. Through 357 plate appearances, he owns an impressive (but mortal) .304/.376/.541 batting line with 18 home runs. Statcast has some mixed news: Martinez is exhibiting clear declines in hard contact but still seems like a candidate for positive regression (.383 wOBA vs. .416 xwOBA). Edwin Encarnacion took down $20MM annually over a three-year term entering his age-34 season, so there’s a realistic possibility that Martinez (32 in August) could beat the earnings he already has secured.
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals: Four years, $100MM: As he nears his 31st birthday, Strasburg continues to turn in excellent work on the mound. He has underperformed his peripherals again in 2019, but has been in good health (knock on wood) with 116 1/3 frames over 18 starts. Stras carries a 3.64 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 and a strong 52.4% groundball rate. He’s sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (14.2%) and chase rate (38.6%) despite losing a tick on his average four-seamer, so the stuff is still plenty crisp. The opt-out chance — there’s another next winter as well — could well prove tantalizing so long as Strasburg keeps up his present pace and stays healthy down the stretch. It’s important to bear in mind that the contract’s deferrals reduce its present-day value. Still, it’s a big number to top in free agency. And while the upcoming class was severely weakened by pre-season extensions, it does feature some strong rotation competition — particularly the more youthful Gerrit Cole, but also including Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Kyle Gibson, and Cole Hamels.
As posted on the separate JDM article, the Sox will be fine if he opts out but I don’t see it nor do I see the team trying to extend the deal. Look how hard it was for him to get the contract he has. Teams are trying to tie up their younger stars and who will have the need and money to give him more? Only question to me is whether he’ll be happy with Boston and the team parts moving forward. No negative signs so my guess is he stays.
No way JD beats that number in free agency. His market will be sooo limited.
Sox should focus on locking up their elite young core. JD is not attractive to an NL team and many teams these days are using the DH as a day off from the field for their players. Lots of teams are getting away from the big power hitter as the permanent DH. JD would be stupid to opt out, he wont have much of a market.
As a general rule of thumb, if the team “would be fine” if the player opts out, he’s not going to. Situations like AJ Burnett with the Phillies are the exception, not the rule.
Its a 100% guarantee he’s opting out… GET REAL!!!
Nope!
How can the 2 defensive metrics for Elvis Andrus give completely opposite results?
His reputation is as an excellent defender.
Any rangers fans have a naked eye assessment?
The defensive ratings on Jose Iglaseas were very similar. He was excellent for a number of years and then one year below average. He looked the same to the fans. Making breathtaking stops and very few errors.
Because the defensive stats are very suspect. You can’t take DRS and UZR and call it a day
This is what drives me crazy. The focus on team friendly contracts. For every team friendly where the player out performs his contract, there are 10 such as those above, that far underperform them.
Agreed. That’s why teams are now willing to pay more but give less years.
Or if your smart like the Braves you offer a bunch of years early at an extremely low AAV. $150 mill total for a decade of Albies and Acuna together. Genius. In a few years Acuna would have likely easily topped that for fewer years of just him by himself.
Right….but the chatter becomes WHY did so and so sign such a team friendly? The risk on that is totally on the team….the player will get paid millions no matter what. Poor guy.
Nothing wrong with players that appear to be establishing themselves to see if they are interested in security. Such is great for a smaller payroll team but established playoff contenders with high commitments already need the team friendly pre-arb contracts to balance their payroll budget.
Yeah. People like Scott Boras hate it and call them “snuff contracts.” I bet that has way more to do with Boras wanting to get more money out of his players commission percentage than anything else. If they had done a deal like Acuna’s with Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward (all extremely highly regarded prospects at the time and with the exception of Marte each had already had at least one very productive rookie MLB season) they would have had to deal with the downside of the risk they inherited. I believe they actually made big offers to Heyward and Francoeur but those guys turned it down. Francoeur is quite vocal about the fact that he regrets it. If Acuna gets a career altering injury like Hanson did the Braves are screwed. What a lot of people don’t realize is that Acuna is also now far more likely to get his family to the U.S. via immigration now that he has a guaranteed contract. Anyone that thinks he should have held out is just plain selfish. He is from Venezuela. That country is basically going through a revolutionary war. Now he gets $100 million and the piece of mind knowing that his family isn’t going to get killed at some point over the next 6 years while being stuck down there. What person worth $100 million dollars would be willing to risk their entire family’s lives for a couple hundred million more?
Good point Seks. One thing AA was good at in Toronto was recognizing who and when to lock up with an extension. Did it with Bautista and Edwin. They got their money, Jays wound up saving a ton thanks to good timing.
Venezuela is a mess. Now he can properly take care of them and himself.
Yeah. I feel bad for the players in those situations when agents and the MLBPA criticize them for reasons that have to do with nothing but money. Back when Johan Santana was one of the best pitchers in baseball his mother got kidnapped in Venezuela. He had earned the right to bring her here but she wouldn’t leave her home country. Kidnappers held her for ransom. Albies is from the Dominican Republic but that’s obviously not too much better if David Ortiz can get shot in public by people that were actually fans of his. Let them make their own decisions and don’t complain about it. $100 mill is nothing to sneeze at. Having loved ones kidnapped or shot is much worse.
I’m pretty sure Chapman has an opt out after this year.
Darn, somehow that fell off our radar. I’ll edit the post.
He does
As a Sox fan, I thought Chapman should have been MVP if there really was one. Striking out the side as the closer was more impressive to me. I realize it was in part because the game was in Cleveland. Sad state of affairs if that was the deciding factor. “Hopefully by not getting the award, it won’t cost Chapman on his next contract”.
Aroldis Chapman – 2yrs/ 30 mill with 2.2 mill signing bonus each year. Going into ages 32, 33.
I think we need to adjust our expectations of what a “good” HR/9 is. The way these balls are made, and the way they are flying out of the park, the acceptable numbers hsould be bumped up a bit.
Certainly, but with Jansen we’re talking about a rough doubling of his prime HR rate.
Very hard to judge HOF talent, comparing today to other generations. For HRs, will 700 be the new 500 if this continues? Hopefully the ball or bat get fixed before someone gets hurt.
Thanks Todd, we always appreciate when you join in on the discussions. And keep up the good work.
And yes, doubling his numbers is not good. And of course, his number should be well above the league average when looking at his expectations and pay.
I can’t see any of them opting out. If any of them did they themselves would have to think he would be interested in their services. Are there that many teams out there looking for that player with that skill set and willing to pony up the dollars?
Wait… So could Joe Maddon theoretically inconspicuously throttle Heywards plate appearances to make sure he tops out at no more than 549 plate appearances and get the Cubs out of that albatross of a contract? I’m sure there would be a grievance filed by the MLBPA and everything but it seems like they should at least try, right?
I think him reaching 550 PA triggers his ability to opt out, not a club option vesting type of situation. I could be wrong, but Heyward should fire his agent if I am.
Correct…”Heyward may opt out of contract after 2018 season or after 2019 season with 550 plate appearances in 2019″
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/na…
This seems to be the time (if there ever is a time and if there is a desire) for Strasburg to make his move back to San Diego. They seem willing to spend money and may be in a spot to compete moving forward.
Nats would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Why would they want to trade Stras?
I don’t see Martinez opting out. The NYY will likely reserve the DH slot for Stanton. Detroit and LAA have their DHs locked up through the early ’20s. Most of the other teams either lack money, or need, or are in rebuild.
The only ones I could see are Jansen & Chapman. $38M/2 is a lot for Jansen, but he could get closer to the $$$ and definitely at least one more year. Having said that, I am surprised the author didn’t mention his heart issues. He’s had two operations.
IRT Chapman, as a RS, I’m sure we can’t afford him, but the dude is a monster. If FLpinstripe is right, then he effectively has a $34.4M/2 deal. He should do much better on the market. If we had the money, I’d offer him $51M/3 in the blink of an eye, and that would only be ,y opening bid.
jensen will opt out after the dodgers lose another ws
Don’t count on it
I don;t see any of them opting out. I don’t think using Encarnacion as a comp is relevant since that contract I think is not regarded well. He has been traded twice since the deal and both as salary dumps. I don’t think using Davis as a comp is relevant since that contract I think is not regarded well but I could be wrong. Strasburg is the only one I think that has a slight chance.
The point of making contract comparisons is to understand how the market has valued players that shared certain characteristics at the time their deals were signed. It is somewhat relevant when said players have not performed as hoped, but that’s really only a small part of a larger and very different kind of evaluation. I’m not directly comparing Martinez to Encarnacion or Jansen to Davis; I’m citing the prior contracts as evidence for what the market might bear on the forthcoming free agents.
Jeff, purely speculatively, with the opt-out becoming a less valuable tool for the player given the shifting dynamics of the market, especially for older players is it possible they just go out of style? Could they be replaced with a different type of economic incentive?
I don’t think they’ll go out of style entirely because it’s still a pretty easy way for teams to provide some value to players. These guys are highly competitive and also probably desire to have flexibility for other personal reasons; perhaps the opt-out generally has greater value to players than it does negative value to the team.
Mostly, I think it’s just now another standard possibility for tweaking things. My guess is we will continue to see complicated contract structures that are hard to characterize as x years/y dollars. Arrieta and Pollock are two notable recent examples with a variety of back-and-forth terms and floating values.
I get your point but you could also note that these were potentially the outlier contracts of that off season. Especially the Encarnacion deal. I guess I thought both were somewhat of a reach as a comp. In only takes one team to make a “ridiculous” offer but many teams learn from that ridiculous offer the next time around.
Either way always enjoy your articles.
Appreciate it.
I don’t believe these were outlier contracts. We predicted both players to earn more than they did in their respective free agencies. We guessed Edwin at 4/92 (this was just as the market fell out for sluggers) and Davis at 4/60 (which isn’t too far from what he got, since he took a bigger AAV with one less year). Often, premium free agents do land deals when one team goes a bit beyond the competition to get it done, but that’s sort of the nature of the game and something you have to account for in estimating what a player is likely to command.
I guess I look at these two contracts (Edwin especially) as late off season overpays that turned out bad as I expected. Reminds me of how the all most entire market (Mariners and Carlos Silva exception) response to the many starting pitcher overpays in the year prior to Siva’s deal.
How many people would bet $63 million in the hopes of making $68 million?
Can’t imagine Martinez would opt out.
THEN AGAIN, I could totally see Boras make that bet….with Martinez’s money.
But it’s not just Martinez’s money, isn’t it also Boras? He makes a percentage of the contract, presumably as it comes in? So the opt out would void what’s already promised.
Boras has shown that he is willing to take high risk wagers with his clients’ careers because he has enough volume to win in the aggregate.
For all his many successes, I can’t think of an agent in any sport who has led big name stars into terrible contracts nearly as often as Boras has done.
It’s interesting how the landscape has changed. I don’t know if people remember JD Drew, who exercised one of the early opt-outs on a contract with the Dodgers to sign for more with the Red Sox. It was pretty controversial at the time because Drew had missed half a season in his first year with the Dodgers, had a strong second year with them, and the opted out. A lot of folks thought Drew was being greedy and ungrateful.
Albert Belle opted out of his contract with the White Sox after a monster season to sign a long-term contract with the Orioles. I think he was guaranteed one of the top salaries in the league. Yes! Reinsdorf actually signed someone to a record-breaking contract.
I think Stras probably opts out after next season if he produces again in 2020. At that point he’s opting out of 3/75 and I believe he can probably top that at that point. Not to mention his last 3 years are strangely backloaded where he gets 15,15, and then 45 million. Assuming good health and results I think he could probably secure himself 90-100 MM after next season.
Is there even a technical difference between an opt-out clause and a player option?
I suppose the contract can be written up in either form. It doesn’t impact cash for player or team. We generally see opt-out used for multiple years and player option used for one season. But I’m not sure that’s more than convention. It doesn’t come with luxury tax implications. So unless there is some accounting difference for teams or players that I’m not versed in, it shouldn’t matter at all except for the way the contract is presented publicly.
Both sides might have reasons to prefer it be presented in one way or the other. We almost always see them framed as opt-outs except for smaller contracts with one-year player options. I would guess that’s b/c agents want deals to look big and teams either don’t care or prefer the opt-out narrative in the long run. Serves all sides.
Otherwise … the only practical impact even in terms of drafting the document might be w/r/t options that can vest at different price points – that would be easier to frame as a player option.
absolutely all of the these players will opt out. Clearly Arietta can do better, even with a bone spur and mediocrity so can wayward and his 250 BA and YU who has yet to win a game at wrigley..
Doesn’t Tony Watson have an opt-out?
Only guarantee to opt out is JD Martinez… Other then that only Jansen, and Strasburg may but are 50/50 at best…
The only one that I see possibly opting out is Chapman and I doubt that he will will do so because of the QO.
The others would be stupid to do it.Most are
underperforming,Strasburg has too much money left,and Jansen has health issues.