With July 31 approaching, the AL Central-leading Twins have reportedly shown interest in an array of pitchers who are potential trade candidates. The club has been connected to Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Marcus Stroman, Ken Giles and Kirby Yates in the rumor mill over the past few weeks. However, if the Twins are going to make win-now moves this month, it doesn’t appear they’ll come at the expense of any of their absolute best prospects. Shortstop Royce Lewis, outfielder Alex Kirilloff and right-hander Brusdar Graterol are “off limits” in trade talks, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune.
It’s especially unsurprising the Twins don’t seem to want to give up the 20-year-old Lewis, whom they drafted first overall in 2017 and then signed to a record bonus for a high schooler. Two years later, FanGraphs (No. 2), MLB.com (No. 7) and Baseball America (No. 10) all regard Lewis as a top 10 major league prospect. ESPN’s Keith Law, who just released his latest top 50 (worth checking out in full), is somewhat less bullish on Lewis. In ranking Lewis 34th, Law explains that “massive” mechanical changes the player has made at the plate haven’t benefited him. Lewis, for what it’s worth, has only hit .239/.288/.373 (95 wRC+) in 358 plate appearances at the High-A level this season. Beyond that, Law’s skeptical of Lewis’ ability to stick at short, writing he’s likely a better fit to play center field.
In Law’s estimation, Kirilloff (No. 15) is a superior prospect to Lewis. The other prospect gurus are similarly high on Kirilloff – BA ranks him 11th, MLB.com 13th and FanGraphs 26th. The 15th overall pick of the Twins in 2016, Kirilloff has made a 216-PA debut with Double-A Pensacola this season and slashed .283/.366/.429 with four home runs. That doesn’t look like a world-beating line, but by wRC+, the 21-year-old Kirilloff’s production has been 33 percent better than the Southern League average. Furthermore, even though Kirilloff hasn’t been particularly powerful this year, there aren’t many concerns over him developing into a solid power hitter in the majors, according to Law.
Graterol, meanwhile, didn’t crack Law’s rankings, though he’s in the top 50s of Baseball America (No. 36) and MLB.com (No. 50). FanGraphs places him just a few spots outside (53rd). BA credits Graterol, 20, with possessing “wipeout stuff,” adding there’s room for him to improve his command. Like Kirilloff, Graterol’s in the midst of his first Double-A action. He owns a superb 1.89 ERA/3.28 FIP with 8.69 K/9, 3.59 BB/9 and a 52.1 percent groundball rate in nine starts and 47 2/3 innings thus far.
Although the Twins don’t look willing to move any of Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol, that shouldn’t necessarily preclude them from adding impact MLB talent before the deadline. The club does boast FanGraphs’ seventh-ranked farm system, two more top 100 prospects at MLB.com (93rd-rated outfielder Trevor Larnach and 99th-ranked righty Jordan Balazovic), and likely plenty more farmhands who’d pique the interest of other teams in negotiations.
Balazovic isn’t far behind Graterol. Would be a fine headliner for a package.
That’s what could get Boyd
No it would not get Boyd.
Putting the Twins best prospects in a “lockbox” makes the Twins
not competitive to get Boyd.
Tigers must have some incentive to trade in their Division with the Twins.
and watch Boyd pitch against them year after year…
Unless Twins top prospects Royce Lewis, outfielder Alex Kirilloff and right-hander Brusdar Graterol are “on the table” for Boyd.
I don’t see the Twins getting Boyd..
They want stroman and Giles but there too prospects are off limits as well so I guess they’ll be dumpster diving for an ace and closer shatkims better just hang up
Totally untrue. Boyd ain’t Verlander and he’s a rental. He could be had for Balazovic.
Wrong Boyd is not a rental.
Boyd isn’t a rental…he has three more years of control
Oh bullshit. That’s the problem with all of this. Teams and Fans over-value the hell out of these prospects. I get that Lewis was #1 overall a few years back, but he’s absolutely lost at the plate right now repeating Hi-A and without major adjustments probably doesn’t crack the MLB roster til 2022. Boyd is probably the top SP on the market and has 2 years of control left. If you think some combination of Balazovic/Larnach/Rooker/Gordon or whatever other organizational fodder you can dream up is gonna land Boyd you’re delusional. Better make 1 of these three “off limits” prospects available if you wanna land him. They’ve got a legit shot to win it all in 2019. Gotta go for it
Good. I don’t see much supporting Boyd’s results and his history isn’t impressive. The Tigers likely have a massive sell high opportunity.
People seem to value Boyd way higher than is probably true in real life. Boyd has had one good half a season and has a career ERA of almost 5, the Twins would be idiots to trade any of those three for Boyd straight up not mention if you want more than just one guy.
Twins would be idiots to trade Balazovic as well. He is 20, dominating high A, with great peripherals and growth potential. I actually value him higher than Graterol right now, as I think Brusdar is a future stud in the bullpen, while Jordan is potential front of the rotation stud. After this year everyone will know about Balazovic, and he is the type of arm and prospect who gets traded for pitchers of a much higher caliber than Boyd, who has been good for a half season.
If the little twins want to play in the big waters they are going to have to sacrifice at least one of those guys to get a piece that can put them over the hump. These are moves Yankees or Astros make at the risk of sacrificing top prospects and that’s why they’re always in the thick of things.
They have Larnach and Balazovic. They’re as good as any prospect the Yankees have in their system right now. Other guys down there as well I think Duran is a real solid piece. They have prospects to play with.
It’s not what they have it is what the team that is holding the piece you want is demanding in return.
The days of teams settling seems to be gone teams seem to be willing to let guys walk and settle for the compensation draft picks.
Well if a team wants to take a draft pick over a top 100 arm like Balazovic that’s their choice. It’s a very poor choice but it is a choice. And that’s assuming it’s a rental. I don’t think those days are here either. Maybe if a team is a playoff contender that’s the case but most teams try to flip their expiring assets.
I don’t see that changing and only a certain subset of available players are even going to be in consideration for a QO. Bumgarner is the only guy I could possibly see that happening to this year. And that’s just because Giants fans hold him up on a pedestal.
Balazovic is a 5th round pick pitcher in A ball. You get a 2nd and 5th Round pick for a QO’d player who signs over 50M. You can draft a lot better than Balazovic in the 2nd round.
All teams wanna get top talent for their spare parts.
Yes, very sound argument. You can do a lot better than Balazovic who is 20 years old in HIGH A ball drafting. Yep, you absolutely nailed it. Absolutely no chance you draft a Matt Hobgood or a Donovan Tate in round 2. Absolute certainty you’ll get a better prospect than a guy who is in the top 100. Yep, you really hit that one on the head MattyIce.
Boyd has 3 1/2 years team control left right now…
Boyd is not walking.
A Team must pay high value or overpay to land Boyd.
Otherwise, the Tigers just roll him out there for another 3 1/2 years or until they get an offer they cannot refuse…
Boyd wasn’t anywhere in this argument at all.. Nor is he the only pitcher available this offseason. Larnach and Balazovic + being on the table should be enough to land a nice starter and a reliever.
It always works when the team wanting a trade dictates what the other teams should want. Locking up your top 3 prospects will not land you much of anything in the realm of premium talent. Chapman was traded for Gleyber Torres as a rental. Sox got Eloy and Cease for Q, who is a similar case study for Boyd. I’m sure Larnach and Balazovic could net something, but there arent many prospective sellers this year, and even fewer have any impact level talent, which means you will have to pay high to be taken seriously.
That’s an unintelligent comment. Balazovic has electric stuff and would definitely go anywhere from 5th to 10th overall if we were to be released into the FYPD pool.
Balazovic is also on some top 100 rankings and just outside on others and he was the TWINS like 15-20th ranked prospect to start the season, that’s how much he stock has gone up this year. I’m willing to be more teams want him than Graterol. The point is to say that teams want Balazovic over any pick because he’s what you’re hoping the draft pick becomes, it would be stupid to want the pick instead. You can’t “draft a lot better” than a top 100 prospect, unless you’re foolish enough to think all your picks will turn out to be top 50 players.
The Yankees & Astros didn’t sacrifice their elite prospects to get where they are now. The Astros protected Springer, Correa, Bregman, Whitley & Martes et al, and the Yankees protected Judge, Torres, Andujar and Sanchez, hence each team has a young core with which to be successful. The same pattern was true of Cleveland & Kansas with their recent runs.
To say that the reason the Yankees are always in the thick of things is because of their willingness to sacrifice top prospects is odd. I can think of a few other reasons why the Yanks sustain their $ucce$$!
I would include Lewis. The Twins gave Polanco a 5 year deal. If they could get Stromen and Giles in the right package or Diaz and SP from Mets.
Don’t think the Mets will trade Diaz think that would be BVW admitting he got absolutely fleeced and just don’t see many first year GMs doing that
No the twins I’m pretty sure are going to play polanco at 2nd and Lewis at short and then play kiriloff at first and kep in right I’ve heard
The Blue Jays would be more interested in Kiriloff than they would be Lewis. They have Bichette coming soon at short. Lewis is off no use to them. The Jays need pitching & outfielders, not another shortstop.
Bo’s gonna need to really step up on D to be their SS. From what’s being said about Bichette it sounds like he’s up for the challenge. Besides, Lewis isn’t matching what Bichette did at the same age or level, so I’m not convinced Lewis would be better than the option the Jays have.
Balazovic has to be in a deal with Stroman. Twins have some good prospects beyond their Top 3.
Here we go with a trade proposition…lemme know what yas think ( NOTE : prospect ratings from “MLB.com”
From TOR:
M. Stroman – SP
+ D.Hudson – RP
From MIN:
T. Larnach – OF (55)
+ Balazovic – RHP (50)
+ B. Enlow – RHP (50)
+ Lottery Ticket
Sorry. Balazovic rated 55 not 50.
Hudson isn’t going to fetch anything. A 4.41 FIP isn’t goig to be very appealing to most teams. That’s too much for Stroman alone. That’s more in line with what I think Stroman and Giles bring back. I’d probably say add Duran to the package and that’s solid value for stro and Giles.
That is WAY too much that the Twins are giving up. They aren’t going to give up 3 of their top 10 prospects including two that are, depending on what publications you are looking at, top 100 or just outside the top 100 on the overall prospect rankings.
Twins say no? Ok….
Atlanta offers something better for Stroman and Giles. Then Atkins calls Minnesota to say they have a deal on the table with Atlanta that’s better than Minnesota.
Minnesota calls Detroit, who’s asking price is too high for Boyd. They call the Mets and they decide to keep Syndergaard. They call San Fran and they say Houston has a better deal on the table for Bumgarner. Then Toronto calls back to say the Dodgers jumped in and made a strong offer for Giles.
Suddenly, what appears to be WAY too much becomes the offer to Toronto.
Call it way too much. The truth is that may be leveraged close to deadline day. We will see.
Exactly. Agree 100%
Larnach, Balazovic and one more arm I think does it for Stroman and Giles. I think that’s probably right. Could be less of an arm than Duran I don’t disagree w that. We’ll have to see.
Not even close for both I think. Jays just get a better package elsewhere
Well, I guess the according to the fans, Minnesota and Toronto don’t line up for a trade
Yes, what you just described is how trade negotiation happen. I would be fine with that deal if you through in Giles, even adding to the twins side by say adding Nick Gordon but just because other teams make offers that beat your doesn’t mean you have to go and do something incredibly stupid. Take away one of the three players on the list and thats probably what Stroman goes for. Look at the Sonny Gray trade(to the yankees), that’s pretty much what you can expect for Stroman.
Kleppy I agree. I wanted to paint the scenario to show what could happen and how teams are enticed into a very difficult decision.
As for the Stroman/Gray comparison….fair, but Stroman pitching the AL East gives him an advantage. We saw how Gray handled it. Stroman has been handling it since Day 1. If he’s traded to the NL, Marcus Stroman will be even better.
You swap out Hudson for Giles and you’ve got a deal.
very True Trim I like Stroman more than Gray and wouldn’t even care if they made that deal to get him just based on recent trades and how the Twins FO seems to operate I don’t think they would go that far or if they are they would just added Gordon or whatever and get Giles with it.
Lewis could always be moved to CF if he were to be traded to Toronto. Teams usually don’t worry too much about what position a player plays as a prospect. If they are a good athlete, then there will be a spot for them somewhere, even if it’s not their natural position. (Think about M.Machado, who was a SS but moved to 3B and became a perennial gold Glover)
Lewis is a struggling hitter. Blue Jays have a greater need at pitcher and should avoid Lewis altogether. Anthony Alford is a great athlete. Means nothing if you are a prospect that can’t put up numbers in the minor leagues.
There’s nothing Toronto has to offer where Lewis or Kirilloff would be traded. Giles + Stroman isn’t remotely close.
Then I guess Stroman and Giles wouldnt be packing for Minn
struggling hitter? You’re joking right?
Yes Niedenfuer, Royce Lewis is struggling with the bat. You can check it yourself. In fact, he’s struggling as much as your namesake in tight playoff games.
Athletes are always of use. Just because Lewis is a SS in the Twins organization now, doesn’t mean the Jays would pass up a chance at him. This article even mentions it- he could be moved to CF.
Lewis could be a descendent of Carl Lewis. If he can’t hit he won’t cut it in the major leagues. Hard pass as a Jays fan. That SS/CF need can wait. Pitching, pitching, pitching. Twins can keep Lewis.
So far, none of the pitchers listed are worth either Kirilloft or Lewis. The only way the Twins even start talking about those 2 is if the names Scherzer or DeGrom are coming from the other side of the phone. Yes, I am over-valuing both of these prospects with that statement. But every fan out there over-values their prospects. If a team wants a Top 10-20 prospect in a trade, they HAVE to be giving out a GREAT player in return. So far, nothing listed above has been on equal ground.
The Astros, Red Sox, Cubs, Royals, and Giants didn’t win the last several World Series by hoarding all their prospects.
The Twins (and other teams) should take note.
But the cubs farm is almost bare ( and eventually they’re going to have to face the music and “tank” to rebuild that farm).
The royals are in rebuild mode after winning the WS 4 years ago. Their farm is being refilled though it’s slow going at the moment (Though going college heavy pitching in the 18 draft did help + drafting Bobby Witt, JR this year).
Why fo you think those farms are barren?
Because it costs prospect capital to get the players necessary to help win a WS.
If Royce Lewis played any position other than SS he would barely be a top 50 prospect. He’s just another average prospect way overrated because he plays SS. The Twins would be smart to move him now while his value is still high
I doubt the Tigers would take him.
At the moment, Lewis projects as an elite CF if he can’t stick at SS. Lewis’ value wouldn’t be heavily impacted right now as most scouts had their doubts he was ever going to be a SS.
That said, if Lewis doesn’t find his groove, his performance is going to drag him out of the top 100 this year.
The Twins already have Buxton in CF so if that’s the case then I really don’t see why they wouldn’t look to move Lewis now for a big piece
Lots of assumptions there including Buxton even being with the Twins when Lewis is ready for MLB level action.
Lewis is in A+. Assuming he can hit well in A+ the rest of the year (which is a big if right now), he’ll start next year at AA. Since Lewis struggled at A+ so much, the Twins aren’t likely to promote Lewis quickly going forward.
2019 A+
2020 AA
2021 AAA/MLB? (last year of Buxton’s control).
One would have to think that Bucton along with Berrios are next on the Twins list of players they want to extend.
Takes 2 to tango and my guess is Berrios won’t stay with the Twins. He’ll go to free agency and a team which will pay him. He’s not going to get all team friendly like Kepler and Polanco. The Twins were already trying to extend him last year.
Buxton isn’t about to bend over backwards for the Twins at this point, either. His stock is skyrocketing and he’s only a couple years from free agency.
With players like Acuna, Tatis, Vlad Jr. Soto and Alonso it shows just how valuable prospects are and if you have a potential franchise player then you keep him unless you can get a superstar not just an all-star but a player that tips the scales and usually with multiple years of control.
The days of gutting a farm system for a player with less than 2 years of control like the Teixera deal are going to be a thing of the past.
It’s been a thing of the past. Look at the trades for the last 3 years. Most of them don’t include teams top prospects it seems like prospects rank 7th, 9th, 15th and some lottery ticket type.
Reaction is team who got the prospects got fleeced because everyone on here thinks all teams should try and win every year even though the team is garbage, because that’s how their pea brain envisions “their perfect” mlb.
To quote the great Casey Stern:
“Prospects are cool, parades are cooler.”
If you are close and need to get that extra “it,” then move a prospect or two. The hoarding of prospects really hasn’t won anyone a championship. You have to make sacrifices to dance with the big boys. Don’t miss out on the opportunity in front of you.
It’s kind of a “chicken/egg” situation here.
Well good luck with that over the last 3 to 4 years trading for top pitchers starters and relief guys under control has cost teams dearly .
Namely the Indians Miller trade and the Pirates Archer trades and others.
This is exactly why the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees and Houston took a back seat and held onto guys like Lux, Verdugo, Florial, Frazier, Gore and others this past offseason duri g the winter meetings the price was steep then and is still steep now.
I do not see a way that the Twins get a Controlable pitcher without parting with 2 of there top 4 prospects as the front part of a package deal.
for example see previous deals.
Lewis for Boyd straight up would be an interesting proposition.
That would be rejected by the Tigers as a non competitive offer
The #2 prospect in baseball would be a nonstarter? Ok, whatever.
Lewis is now ranked #34. He fell 32 spots. (see article above).
He is ranked 2, 7, 10, and 34. Choose whatever ranking pleases you most I guess.
Apparently Keith Laws word is gospel and everyone else should be ignored.
Keith Law’s career in scouting may have been the worst in the history of modern expansion era baseball. He helped ruin the Toronto Blue Jays.
Yes. Absolutely it would. See Jose Quintana.
I will continue to laugh at people who think Boyd is worth 45 top 100 prospects based on at half a season of good pitching. The tigers wouldn’t let the Twins finish talking before they accepted a deal for Lewis.
No chance….Tigers don’t want Lewis…Tigers already have better SS prospects than Lewis in the minors…Tigers just let a young defensive SS leave for FA in Jose Iglesias.
Lewis for Boyd would get a quick hang up by Al Avila.
Lewis is over rated…cannot hit enough, has little or no power..
Why would the Tigers do that when they let SS Jose Iglesias with great D and little power but an average bat walk out as a FA.?!
Tigers want a 5 tool SS.
Lewis is not that nor will he ever be that..
Detroit would jump at the chance to get Royce Lewis. Albeit Boyd is striking out a ton of guys rn, but so was Chris Archer. If you can’t limit the home run then it doesn’t matter how many you strikeout.
I’d trade any prospect for any better-than-average Major Leaguer.
Do that often enough, and you’re more likely than not to hit than miss.
Of course, you may run out of prospects eventually.
Miller played a huge role in getting the indians to gm 7 of World Series. Is Sheffield better than Bieber, Plesac or Civale? Frazier is a decent player but worth a legit WS run? Did it really devastate the indians farm system?
How did Chapman workout for 2016 cubs, or Verlander for 2017 Astros, or Sale for 2018 Redsox?
You don’t trade can’t-miss prospects during the off-season, because they are cheaper alternatives to patch holes. Trade deadline is another story if your window is open.
Sale was acquired during the off-season, so the inclusion of his name in your comment doesn’t support your argument
Scratch Sale, put Evoladi for 2018 Red Sox and Cueto for 2015 Royals. The prospect(s) for vet(rental of not) trade is perfectly fine for a team in actual contention. It’s the execution that matters.
Why not add in an impossible qualifier to make your position untouchable? Of course Sale’s acquisition is relevant. The date of the transaction is largely irrelevant. The remaining contract and control on players being discussed or compared is the most important thing. Timing matters a little, but it doesn’t matter nearly as much.
I know there will be the ‘Big Papi’ comparisons, but if I were the Twins, I’d be looking to see how much you could tempt people to give up for Sano.
The Twins tried Sano as a headliner for Archer, Rays hung up on them. That’s when Sano had legitimate value.
Sano has little to no trade value right now. At least, I can’t imagine any GM wanting him given the extreme risks associated with his off field behavior and on field performances over the past 2 calendar years.
free to ask is all I’m sayin’.
It would be nice if the Twins could just throw him in on a deal, just so they don’t have to be responsible the next time he causes trouble.
I get Kiriloff and Lewis but Graterol? Do they just not care about going far in the playoffs while they have a golden opportunity?
Are larnach and Balazovic not enough? Some teams don’t have 2 prospects on the table that are that well regarded. I think they’ll be alright.
Depends if whoever they are trading with wants two decent headliners or one really good headliner.
I don’t see them getting a controllable difference maker without at least putting Graterol on the table.
Have to disagree. The Twins have good prospects. I’m not giving up anymore than Balazovic and Larnach for any pitcher available. That’s a good base for a Giles/Stroman trade. They certainly have secondary pieces that can be added from there. Duran is another quality arm they have.
It isn’t a good base for a Stroman or Giles trade at all. The Jays need pitching that is or is close to beinh major league ready back. They’re looking for young players who can stepnin & join Vlad Jr., Biggio, Bichette & Guriel. Neither Larnach or Balazovic are anywhere close to being ready
For ONE of Stroman or Giles they may be able to do it without adding Graterol…but for the package, I think it would take Graterol, Larnach, Balazovic, plus a couple lottery tickets. Any less than that, I believe they could get a better package elsewhere
This I’ll agree with unless they give up like 7 top 15 prospects which at that point play the odds that one of those 7 will be just as good/impactful as Graterol and just trade Graterol.
I think the point that you are missing on here is whether Stroman and Giles are actually difference makers. Both are ok pieces, but are they difference makers to put a team like the Twins in the WS? IMHO, they aren’t. No team is going to give out their top prospects for players that are much more then the status quo. If it’s a player (or two) that have the proven track record of being dominant at times at their position, then teams will fork over their top prospects. Everyone is making Stroman sound like the second coming of Cy Young. And Giles has shown in the past that he is good on poor teams, but when things get tense, he folds.
Depending on the team. Some teams want prospects who are closer to the majors. Those two guys are a few years away. The Blue Jays, for example, would be more interested in pitchers who are close to being major league ready than prospects in A ball due to their lack of pitching depth. Another team may be okay with adding players who are further away. It depends on the time line the team selling as for their rebuild
The guys are in high A ball. That’s not rookie ball. The Jays window for the playoffs doesn’t open until at least 2021(Realistically 2022) and Larnach and Balazovic are both coming up before that. If they were rookie ball pitchers I may agree but being in high A ball is not far off from the big leagues.
Which is a moot point when discussing the Twins anyway because Graterol isn’t any closer. Neither is Lewis.
That’s why they wont be in the conversation. Using him as an example, but the Twins dont have a Clint Frazier, who has shown an ability to play at the MLB level already, and is blocked by far more talent ahead of him
Both Lewis and Kirloff will play at least one game in the majors next year.
They also have Rooker. Sure he’s not in a top 100, like that matters, but he’s a valuable prospect. Along with Lewis Thorpe and Lewin Diaz, they have chips to play with outside of the top three:
They also have Rooker. Sure he’s not in a top 100, like that matters, but he’s a valuable prospect. Along with Lewis Thorpe and Lewin Diaz, they have chips to play with outside of the top three.
Just check Graterol’s stats…I’d say the guy’s pretty good..
Graterol is 20 years old with high velocity and dominating AA. You don’t move a prospect like that.
Graterol hasn’t pitched in almost 2 months because of a shoulder injury. He’s not bringing anything back right now.
I’d trade Graterol over Balazovic. I think Balazovic will be better. Just my opinion.
I would have traded Romero years ago as well. That ship sailed. Now it’s just hoping he can actually make it as a reliever which isn’t looking great now.
I do not see The Tigers trading Boyd within their own division.
if they trade him they are nm it going to want to face him multiple times over the next couple years.
They’re going to suck for two years either way. Maybe if they trade him it can be two instead of 6.
“The days of gutting a farm system for a player with less than 2 years of control like the Teixera deal are going to be a thing of the past.”
That is until a few overvalued prospects result in not getting an important piece that could have been the difference between getting to, and missing, the PS.
Package headlined by Larnach might get you Will Smith. Doesn’t net you Bumgarner, and wont pull in the controllable guys.
I agree with alot of the comments on here, Lewis is a massively overrated guy. He isn’t even one of the top 3 players i’d want from that system anyhow. Weak bat, and miles away from the big leagues, with HUGE bust potential.
I’d actually take Larnach over Kirilloff truthfully.
Yes, yes. A rental reliever will definitely take a top 100 prospect. Why not add in Kepler, Polanco and Garver just to make sure the Giants are willing to take the trade offer without considering possible other better offers?
I agree. Larnach is WAY better than Kirilloff. I mean, just look at what they’re doing!
Larnach (22) is raking in A+ right now! wRC+ 142.
Kirilloff (21) only hit with a wRC+ of 30% better than Larnach at the same level, at 2 years younger after missing a full season from surgery. After all, Kirilloff is only hitting with a wRC+ of 129 at a younger age, at a higher level, than Larnach despite a lingering wrist injury.
Balazovic is a 5th round pick in A ball. Probably never makes a big league start. No thanks.
Excellent scouting report, thanks. While we’re saying ridiculous things. Matt Boyd is an 8th round pick in the majors. No thanks.
And his career numbers are of a typical 8th rounder
“Typically”, 8th rounders don’t make the majors.
Who cares what round draft pick Matthew Boyd was?!
Only someone who does not know baseball.
John Smoltz was a 22nd round pick
Brett Saberhagen 19th round draft pick.
Nolan Ryan 12th round draft pick
Roy Oswalt 23rd round draft pick
the list is long of top players, even Hall of Famers drafted in later rounds.
Buddy you gotta work on the reading comprehension skills. I don’t know how you didn’t notice that was a clear joke in retort of the nonsense MattyIce said. Let’s cool it w the Boyd talk anyway, I’m sorry I even brought his name up there.
Did you read what he was replying too? I didn’t think so. Jeez.
Matt Boyd is a 6th round pick… just like Scott Frazier, Casey Shane, Luke Ferrel, Trevor Gott, James Dykstra, Jacob Rhame, Jimmy Reed, Calvin Drummond, Harrison Cooney, Stephen Woods, Sam Wolf, Kyle Finnegan, Nick Vander Tuig, Steve Janas, and Zack Weiss.
Except Boyd’s WAR is 23 times higher than the next best pitcher. In fact, Jon Gray is the only pitcher with a higher WAR in that entire draft. Gray was the number 3 overall pick in 2013.
He’s a troll. Jeez. Just figured it out. I thought he was just a moron.
Typical clueless troll comment by you
I can see all the teams in the league lining up to get Balazovic and Larnach… yeah right
Their stats look very good to me. And they are very young (a positive!). Not sure what you don’t see in them.
Had a scouting friend (no, not Jimmer) down at the Futures game and besides being high on Garcia from New York, he really liked Balazovic.
Twins can say certain guys are untouchable. If they are looking at Stroman and Giles, or Syndergaard or Bumgarner, they will have to compete with the Atlantas and LA Dodgers and whoever else is looking for arms and are willing to part with prospects. Minnesota can say these 3 guys are untouchable until they realize the player they want will go elsewhere because another team’s offer was more attractive.
Then we’ll see how badly Minnesota wants a player at the deadline.
What about for syndergaard?
Last time I checked Rooker, Larnach, Gordon, Thorpe, and Javier were still considered very good prospects in their own right…
You all act like the Twins are not gonna be able to land anyone without giving up their top 3 prospects. The Twins system is pretty deep so you’re just wrong.
Lewis shoudnt even be a top 100 prospect. His Offense is horrific
The twins should protect some top prospects. This is the first year their getting production out of some young players. It would be knee jerk to go all in on this year. If they regress next year and have no one to give them a boost from the minors then the team just wasted five years making one decent playoff run.
All the arm chair GM speculation is pointless, because not a single GM is making calls based on where a person is on the prospect list and draft spot might weigh on how much they invested in a player, but they’re going by their scouts, and data and employees who work long hours year round studying the sport. There are hundreds of factors at play… and yet so many fans just break it down like trades are based on stat lines, prospect ranking, team control or other basic stuff.
You know the scouting reports are what make up the prospect ranks… right? You sound like the kind of guy who likes a “competitive team” which might get a 1 and done wild card game every couple years or a quick sweep out of the playoffs a couple times a decade.
Division titles don’t grow on trees for mid market teams who operate like small market teams. The following sample players have 2 or fewer years of control left for the Twins.
Gibson (2019)
Odorizzi (2019)
Schoop (2019)
Harper (2019)
Pineda (2019)
Parker (2019)
Cron (2020)
Adrianza (2020)
Cruz (2020)
Gonzalez (2020)
Perez (2020)
May (2020)
Funny thing is, at the beginning of the year, the Twin’s brass were probably salivating at what kind of prospects all these expiring contracts could bring in, but low and behold, they went ahead and won. Going to be an expensive off-season if they plan on keeping all these guys.
None of those guys are really core players and that’s probably a better argument to keep your top prospects because you’ll have holes to fill in the immediate future. You act as if this is the year the Twins have to go for it all. They Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, Berrios, Rosario, Rogers, and Sano under control for years. If they get Giles and Stroman are you telling me they’re all of a sudden WS favorites?? I don’t think so.
As soon as they get Giles or Stroman the Yankees are going to add another starter and maybe a reliever as well. There isn’t a reason for them to go all in tomorrow. That’s a great way to have a one shot load and ruin your next 4-5 year run because you traded all your potential impact prospects away. They can do both. Go for it this year and not mortgage the future if it doesn’t work out. Who had the Twins winning the division this year? Let alone the American League.
The Twins do not have lengthy team control for 50% of their current year’s value production. Prospects cannot and will not replace that in the next 2 years, especially in the pitching department.
But, maybe you’re right. Unless you’re the favorite, why even try?
Look I just listed a list of impact players they have under control. They also have very limited salary on the books. Trading Larnach and Balazovic is giving up talent anyway. I believe you may root for one of the teams in the division and it’d certainly be advantageous from your point of view for them to dump their team for one run at a World Series but that’s not really the best move in reality. The core players will all be here for the next few seasons with salary flexibility to go out and get a TOR starter and some bullpen arms. I think Larnach and Balazovic + brings back solid talent anyhow. They’re good prospects. Stroman and Giles would fit nicely. Those 2 are a good start to a package for them.
They locked up Kepler and Polanco on bargain deals for the next half decade. They have arguably more salary flexibility than any team in baseball and have a very nice prospect and young major leaguer base to build on. To suggest they need to go all in and gut their farm to go for a WS this year is a bit foolish to me. This isn’t the Cleveland Indians who are facing a closing window and have been close but not quite there many times in the past. This looks like the opening of a window for me.
I agree with you on Larnach and Balazovic for Stroman and Giles. I think it’s actually too much for the Twins to give up with Balazovic’s fast rising stock.
I’d be more like
Larnach
Rooker
2 other 10-20 level system prospects.
That’s fair. Stroman will cost $12M next year and Giles $10M. They’re not huge payroll bargains, they don’t come with a ton of control and Giles isn’t a great QO candidate in the current environment.
Otherwise, I’d be much happier to ditch Kirilloff and or Lewis and bring in a better pitcher with more control. #4-5 starters are easy to come by and #3’s aren’t too tough. It’s the guys at the top of the rotation, the ones who win playoff games that really cost.
Who is this top of the rotation pitcher available? The guys floating on the market are Boyd, Stroman, Wheeler, and Bumgarner. Possibly Thor who I wouldn’t pay for if I were Minnesota or Bauer, who I’m sure Cleveland will not trade to Minnesota. Even if they said we’ll trade all 3 of their top guys the front of the line pitcher has to be available. And you tell me where that is? I don’t see anything better than the Boyd/Stroman tier. Which isn’t a #1
I’m not overpaying for Thor if I’m Minnesota. If I’m Houston, sure. I’ll roll the dice in their shoes.
Well, I’d say anybody is technically available for the right price. I think the following 4 guys could potentially be had for that “right price” which would vary greatly on contract cost, control and prospect cost.
Strasburg (if his opt out can be canceled). Syndergaard. deGrom. Greinke would be the ones I’d start with. Different contract and control situations. All of them have the ability to be elite and enough track record to back up the ability.
It’s honestly pretty tough to say, but the Twins need a front of the rotation starter if they are going to be contenders to advance in the playoffs. It sure would help to advance their position to win the division as well.
I didn’t realize Harper is gone after this year.
He’s become my favorite player.
Of course, a guy with the repertoire of pitches he has, is likely to get lit-up in the post-season.
He’s not.
The Twins front office seems to enjoy outmaneuvering fans for some reason. I’m not sure why, but they remain pretty secretive and they operate in a manner which isn’t easily figured out.
Earlier this year, Thad Levine made comments about when the Twins would spend or make moves. Apparently, Levine is all about it when the Twins are already favored. There has not been a better scenario to show the philosophy than what the Twins currently present… and yet the Twins are showing they’re not interested in pursuing a World Series.
Prospects are seriously overvalued in today’s MLB.
With Nick Gordon pretty much ready for the majors and Buxton not going anywhere, it seems strange to keep Royce Lewis off the table. Where exactly do the Twins see him on future teams?
Buxton’s team control runs out before Lewis is going to be ready… Just sayin’
Polanco can’t field worth a hoot at SS. Maybe the Twins would like to keep an MLB ready SS in Gordon?
There are almost always good reasons to keep prospects. Passing on an attempt to improve a team on the borderline of playoff relevance now for the hope a completely unknown team years ahead into the future might benefit from a prospect who might pan out is not typically one of them.
There is a negotiating technique (called “anchoring”, for you google fans) where you start your negotiation with an extreme ask. Psychologically, the other party is tempted to “meet in the middle”. So if you know the bracelet is only worth $20 but the flea market merchant is asking $100, you may find yourself paying $40 – and thinking you got a great deal!
The Yankees did this a few weeks ago when they said that they could not possibly trade Clint Frazier (he of the negative career WAR and the personality issues) for a mere 1.5 years of a top starter. Could the Twins be doing the same thing here, saying LewKilGrat are totally untouchable at any price … but how much are you offering?
Kind of like Trump and “the Wall”
Exactly like Trump, actually. Remember when he said that he was going to tear up NAFTA? Canada and Mexico rushed to make concessions to preserve the deal. If Trump had just asked for a renegotiation, he would likely have met with far less enthusiasm. Weasel 101.
Let’s keep in mind that — with attendance faltering across the league — our beloved Twins want to remain competitive for many years to come. Boosting YoY attendance by a few hundred thousand drops an additional $10M+ in the bank this year. Not that the game is entirely a business… but a few post-season games, as exciting as they are, aren’t worth fighting for if the cost is quality prospects. Quality prospects are crucial to sustained success for teams like ours.
Getting to or winning a World Series does more for a team’s sales, fan interest, TV contracts and attendance than fielding a continuously .500 ball club will ever do.
I think it depends on Twins’ management viewpoint of the future. If they see 2019 as something of a perfect storm – like the rSox had in 2018 – they might want to carpe the diem, even at the cost of some good prospects. If they see 2019 more as the beginning of a Twins dynasty, then perhaps not. Personally, with so many good teams in the AL (and others coming up fast) I would want to make the most of 2019. Not trading the whole farm, of course, but if I had to move one of Lew/Kir/Grat for a package that would significantly improve my chances of new jewelry …
here is the problem with royce lewis being “off limits”, they just signed polanco to an extension. so your gonna make a prospect who is blocked for 4 years “off limits”???? how does that make sense? yes one of them can switch positions but his value takes a hit i think. not to say that means the twins have to trade him, but certaintly not off limits
Damn straight.
Lewis is expendable.
Let him go through growing pains someplace else.
If you think those names you just listed are fodder, youre dumb. Just dumb, and don’t even deserve a response beyond that, other than Tigers fans are delusional if they think a guy with half a season of good results, can scoff at the players you listed above, 2 of whom are top 100, one, Rooker, is demolishing triple a, and oh yeah, Jordan just performed in the future game and is probably headed for top 50 or better status after this year he is having. And do some homework on Lewis. He isn’t repeating high a, and if he was he is still over 2 years younger than average age down there, and has been raking the last 6 weeks. Kid just turned 20 June 5th. Lmao.
Lewis is repeating A+, dude. Since 7/14/2018, Lewis has been with the Fort Myers Miracle.
127G, 566 PA, .245/.302/.382, OPS .684, wRC+ 101 and he’s worse this year.
2018 A+ wRC+ 110 (impressive for a 19 year old)
2019 A+ wRC+ 95 (very concerning to see a significant decline at the A+ level year over year at this age)
Raking over the last 6 weeks you say? .266/.281/.430, OPS .711, wRC+ 106. If that’s what you call “raking” 1/2 the prospects in baseball are top 50 guys.
Lewis can reverse the fall off, and for the Twins, they can’t sell low right now, but to think his stock hasn’t fallen for a lot of potential trade partners? That’s ridiculous.
Prospects Schmospects.
Trade whomever away.
It just saves us from disappointment down the road, when the coveted prospect ultimately struggles.
Mauer/Morneau: decent for a few years
Buxton: Always hurt
Kyle Gibson/Aaron Hicks: Easily replaceable
Willie Banks/ Rich Garces: Horrible
Miguel Sano: Replaceable, often injured, and a sex-offender
For every Kirby Puckett or Torii Hunter, you get 5-10 stiffs.
Trade whomever.
Lol Mauer and Morneau: “Decent for a few years”
The sad part is you’ll probably have people agreeing with this nonsense too.
Remember when the Twins got Don Baylor or Jim Dwyer to fortify for their WS runs?
I’d be shocked if the Twins ever make a bigger pick up than one of these…
Everyone needs to ignore Stromans ERA. It’s telling a story that isnt true and I dont mean just this year either.
His ERA is saying he is better than he really is just as last year it was saying he was worse than he really is. His FIP is 3.81 and BABIP against him is .289
That BABIP is to low and that FIP is to high in reference to his ERA. Baseballsavant has his hard rate slightly above average and his exit velocity above average as well.
Im not saying Stroman a bad pitcher. If you need him to be your no.4 pitcher than Stroman is a strength to you. If an FO uses top prospects to get Stroman than the fans of that team need to know you are getting a middle of the rotation guy.
I’m a Braves fan. I would love to see Stroman in the rotation but of it’s at the price of Pache, Anderson or Wright, no thanks.
#4….oh boy…..
Never, ever forget Marcus Stroman pitches in Toronto and routinely faces Boston and New York with a tough Tampa team and a Baltimore franchise who raked prior to last season.
Stroman’s numbers in Interleague would make him an Ace/Fringe Ace. Pitching in Atlanta he would thrive in New York, Washington and Philly. Miami would be an obvious.
#4…..please. He’d be one of the best pitchers in the NL and become a difference maker. AL East ballparks and hitters are second to none to the rest of the league.
Stroman is a #3 guy. He’ll never be an elite pitcher since he just doesn’t have the stuff for it. He’ll always be a bit sporadic and isn’t the kind of guy you turn to when you need somebody to stop a loss streak or win a playoff game against another team’s best pitcher. He’s a bit like a more consistent, smoothed out Kyle Gibson, really.
The Braves have prospects to get Stroman without giving up Pache, Wright or Anderson. Bryce Wilson and Kyle Muller would certainly be options to send in return. Gohara’s stock is down so I wouldn’t include him at this point. I suppose you could add Touki to the list of potential arms you could move as well. Definitely have some options to shuffle around.
Wilson, Allard, Weigel. Throw in Justin Dean. Fair?
Probably send Daniel Hudson back as well cause the Braves need pen arms and he doesn’t add much value to a deal. But I don’t think that’s a very costly deal. Looks pretty fair to me.
Waters might be a good fit too. He loses a lot of value if moved from CF to a corner, but it is hard to imagine Atlanta moving Pache from CF. So Waters + a good pitching prospect not named Wright or Anderson?