We last checked in on the 2019-20 free agent class at the end of April. No extensions have been signed since then, but otherwise there’s plenty of movement in the rankings. As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. To view the entire list of 2019-20 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Gerrit Cole. Cole maintains his spot atop this list, earning a second consecutive All-Star nod and cementing himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. We haven’t seen a starting pitcher sign a seven-year deal since Stephen Strasburg inked his $175MM extension in May 2016. The largest contract signed by a starter remains David Price’s seven-year, $217MM deal from December 2015. The way free agency has been trending, it’s difficult to say whether Cole can reach the $200MM heights of Price, Max Scherzer, and Zack Greinke. For more on Cole’s free agency, click here.
2. Anthony Rendon. In the midst of his best offensive season yet, Rendon was finally voted into the All-Star game by his peers, though he was unable to participate. Rendon quietly keeps putting up six-win seasons as the Nationals’ third baseman, and he’s on the cusp of a huge contract. Rendon’s agent Scott Boras and the Nationals discussed an extension this month, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, but Boras suggested the ball is in the club’s court. A six-year deal could be a reasonable goal.
3. Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is adding another fine season to his resume, if a bit homer-prone. It’s shaping up to be his first three-win season since 2016. He’s one of baseball’s most likely trade candidates this month, though the Giants are complicating matters by playing well of late. San Francisco is only three games out of the Wild Card, and if that holds up over the next two weeks, I can see the club holding onto him. That’s relevant to this post in that the team would saddle him with a qualifying offer in that case, reducing his earning power. In such a scenario, an extension with the Giants could begin to make sense.
4. Zack Wheeler. Wheeler’s spot on this list is precarious, as the 29-year-old righty recently landed on the IL for shoulder fatigue. The timing of the injury gives scant time for Wheeler to re-establish his health in advance of the July 31st trade deadline, and also stings from the pitcher’s standpoint if it leads to a qualifying offer after the season. Mike Puma of the New York Post suggests a qualifying offer from the Mets “seems unlikely” for Wheeler, but I think if he pitches reasonably well to close out the year, he’ll get one. Though Wheeler’s ERA is up to 4.69, he’s demonstrated skills that typically lead to something closer to 4.00.
5. J.D. Martinez. Martinez has the ability to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM on his contract after this season. He owns a solid 129 wRC+ to date, though that’s short of the lofty standard he set in years prior. As a DH who turns 32 in August, I don’t believe Martinez would do much better than $62.5MM on the open market, but his earning power still secures a spot on this list.
6. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his contract after the season, and there’s a decent chance the Yankees’ closer exercises that right. The Yankees could also get out ahead of the situation by adding, say, an extra year and $20MM to the deal. But Chapman turns 32 in February, and the Yankees may be content to let him leave even after another excellent season. Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal from December 2017 could be a target for Chapman if he hits the open market.
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu’s 1.97 ERA in 15 starts last year seemed impossible to beat, yet this year his ERA sits at 1.78 and he started the All-Star Game for the NL. The 32-year-old lefty has walked a mere 2.5% of batters faced this year, best in baseball. Though Ryu has not pitched 150 innings in a season since 2014, his injuries have not involved his arm or shoulder following his September 2015 elbow debridement procedure. If Rich Hill can get three years and $48MM heading into his age-37 campaign, it stands to reason that Ryu can get something similar heading into his age-33 season, particularly since he’s ineligible for another qualifying offer.
8. Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is having a respectable bounceback season for the Cardinals, with a 118 wRC+ in 326 plate appearances. However, he’s a bat-first left fielder and is currently on the IL with multiple finger fractures. Ozuna will be just 29 in November, but he won’t be hitting the same market that saw Justin Upton snag a five-year, $106MM extension in November 2017. Ozuna also may come with a qualifying offer attached, and seems like a player who could face a difficult free agency.
9. Jake Odorizzi. A new entrant to this list, Odorizzi made his first All-Star team this year and owns a 3.06 ERA through 94 innings. 30 in March, he should be in line for a healthy contract with a strong second half. However, he may be saddled by a qualifying offer and could fail to reach the new standard of four years and $68MM set by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas.
10. Yasmani Grandal. Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year offer from the Mets in excess of $50MM during the offseason before signing a one-year, $18.25MM deal with Milwaukee. He’s matching last year’s excellent offense thus far and won’t have to contend with a qualifying offer this time, and should come out ahead on the gamble.
Honorable mentions: Stephen Strasburg (can opt of remaining four years and $100MM, Kenley Jansen (can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM), Josh Donaldson, Yasiel Puig, Didi Gregorius, Nicholas Castellanos, Will Smith, Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Gibson, Cole Hamels, Mike Moustakas
Zach wheeler as number 2 despite only being good for 2 months last season ?
Wheeler is actually listed at #4 but it’s still difficult to see how he tops Ryu.
“these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2019-20 open market earning power. ”
I wonder if Tim does it based on predicted AAV or total contract value. I could see Wheeler having a higher AAV than Ryu maybe since I assume Wheeler would accept an offered qualifying offer. It’s hard to imagine him getting more total money though. I feel like JD is likely to get a higher AAV and total money than either one
Total contract value. So getting more years is crucial.
The thought process is that Wheeler, if his injury is minor and he’s decent the rest of the season, has a chance at a four-year deal. Whereas Ryu will play next season at 33 and will likely top out at three years, possibly two.
I assumed the number of years made a difference, but looking at Wheeler’s career work it’s difficult to see him as much better than a journeyman. Ryu has performed at a much higher level. He is by no means a power pitcher so despite his age it would be shocking if he got less than three years at under $20m per if he finishes the season anywhere close to where he’s been so far. It’s overused term, but Ryu has without a doubt pitched at an ace level. He’d be number one or two in most rotations.
Ryu has performed at a higher level, but his injury history is more troubling than Wheeler’s. Over their careers they’ve both made exactly 114 starts. Not counting the year each was out for the entire season, Wheeler did that in 5 seasons, and Ryu did it in 6. With Ryu’s age, and don’t forget he had 180 starts in Korea. I don’t see a GM gambling on anything more than 3 years. Wheeler just turned 29 a month and a half ago. He’s definitely in line for a longer contract.
Ryu has no chronic injury history. His most serious and potentially concerning injury was to his shoulder, but that one is well behind him now. Ryu is performing at a level very similar to Greinke when he signed his very rich contract at only one year younger. Just something to consider.
Let me ask you a question: are you seriously using Rich Hill as a comp for Ryu who is currently the best pitcher in baseball, and also easily the best one among this free-agent class?
– Active leaders for career ERA –
1. Kershaw: 2.42
2. deGrom: 2.73
3. Ryu: 2.95
– 2018-19 ERA leaders –
1. Ryu: 1.86
2. deGrom: 2.22
3. Scherzer: 2.44
4. Verlander: 2.70
5. Morton: 2.80
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12. Cole: 3.01
26. Bumgarnder: 3.54
45. Wheeler: 3.85
He wasn’t using Hill as a compliment but more as an example of the length for older pitchers with histories of injury.
Rich Hill is 7 years older than Ryu… Ryu at 32 years old is not THAT old.
Is your position that Ryu is going to get a four-year deal in free agency?
Yu Darvish entering free agency at 31 years old received a 6 yr deal. I would stand to assume Ryu would receive a similar offer for 4 or 5 years. He certainly deserves it considering how well he’s pitched over the past 2 seasons.
ERA is a misleading stat, and good analytics departments wouldn’t use ERA to determine contract value.
I think the Darvish deal sits as an example of a bad contract. I doubt you could say if Darvish got that much Ryu can get 3-4 years.
That statement may be true short term but over a 3-4 year period it averages out and becomes a most reliable one to determine contract value..While won=lost record over that middle length period can be misleading ERA would be very reliable as it is based on actual records.
Baloney. I’d look at a wide variety of stats but if limited to one, I’d choose ERA.
But ERA can be flawed. Lots of factors go into it. Where does the pitcher pitch his home games ? What kind if defense is behind him? How many of those runs are due to relievers allowing inherited runners to score or how many of them were due to passed balls by a catcher
Look into FIP and ERA+ they’re a bit more accurate than ERA
I am not an expert on FIP or ERA +.But If factors are introduced into the equations used to calculate them that are manufactured from general data that have nothing to do with that particular pitcher then they themselves may very well not be accurate.
The things that you mention could affect ERA in varying degrees.Remember that passed balls and errors do not affect it.A very poor relief group may affect it but probably not to a great extent.
I have questions about the accuracy of many of the new statistics but do not have enough knowledge to intelligently argue about them.
So you question the accuracy of something you have little to zero knowledge of?
To some extent,but I am mainly disagreeing with you that ERA is a statistic that “ good analytics departments wouldn’t use ERA to determine contract value”.Those are your words.ERA is still used in many circles as an important statistic.
Do you foresee FIP and ERA+ being used by the HOF voters,for instance?Cited on HOF plaques?Used extensively by sportscasters?
I am willing to listen to your analysis of why these are better,and what parameters are used in determining them.Why are there two?Do they predict the same thing?Are they used for future predictive reasons or as past record?Perhaps you can educate me briefly on why anything other than real numbers should be used to determine contract amounts.
I never said that or wrote that . Stop reading into things . I never once wrote what or what not a team would use to evaluate a player. All I said was there are better metrics than ERA.
Most teams nowadays dont even use fip or era+ for evaluation anyway. They look a velo , spin rates ..walk /k/hr rates…contact rates and exit velocity per batted ball
but NOT ONE TIME did I mention in my first post that a team would NOT use ERA. Read entire posts. Dont stop at the first sentence and reply ..jackass
It is a direct quote from your first post.
You have been caught with your hand in the cookie jar little boy.
I didn’t think you knew what you were talking about.
Your other statistics do make sense as far as evaluating a pitcher.
You have been proven wrong.I will not call you the name that you really deserve.When I see posters like you go this route I know that you should not be on a public forum.
Lol how exactly did you prove me wrong old man.
You dont like statistics you can not understand . I know math is hard and you dislike change but thems the breaks
Please elaborate on how you proved me wrong
Also my OP included nothing about what teams use to evaluate pitchers. You grasped that out of thin air
Simply look at your first email,the one that I responded to.
You basically said an absolute which is a Nono among old men who know what they are doing.
I can assure you that “math” has come easily to me my whole life.
I have dealt with analytical models in engineering and know that “garbage in garbage out”applies.That does not mean that the “new” statistics are not useful,but the old are still so on longer term bases.
You are just one of a number of smug posters on here who think that they know it all.
1. You misquoted me and refuse to acknowledge that
2. You failed to cite why you proved me wrong
3. I dont care about your fantastical accolades
4. Dont forget to ask the nurse to help you put on your depends . That’s why you pay her
I have to apologize.You came in half way through.My original post was responding to a previous poster.
You do have a very vivid imagination though.
My guess is that you are very young and easy to rile.
My imagination is not fantastical.
You are still smug.
such a weak class
And, it could get weaker if the opt outs don’t happen.
This is a trend that is going to continue as better players will keep signing contract extensions with multiple opt-outs. It offers potential free agents more security as well as flexibility. The salary arbitration system is antiquated and broken and you’re going to continue to see more young talent bypass it alltogether.
Five playoff spots with ten teams ahead of the Giants, who are we kidding here? San Francisco is stupid if they hold onto MadBum. They will get absolutely nothing in return.
I think he may return to San Francisco in Free Agency. That’s assuming the Giants will resign him.
Or a trade shows MadBum what playing for a different team isn’t so bad, so he doesn’t re-sign with SF, like Lester and Bos.
Lester signed with the Cubs because they offered him $20m more than the Red Sox did.
Ao you ignore what Lester himself said?
And you ignore $20m. And the fact that if the Red Sox hadn’t traded Lester, they might not have even offered him $135m because they would have stood to gain an extra first rounder by letting him walk.
As a Giants fan, I couldn’t agree more. Time to start thinking about who is going to be playing with Bart and Ramos, not trying to go for some miracle wildcard birth when you have 3 or 4 semi valuable chips to cash in at the deadline and a thin farm.
3 games back with 2.5 months to play is not insurmountable, especially with everyone in front of them playing crappy.
It is once you realize the Giants, like those teams in front of them, are crappy. They hit a hot streak against bad teams. They’ll start playing against better teams, teams with actual playoffs aspirations, in the last two months.
There’s an argument to be made that, except for probably the Marlins (though not mathematically out), no one team is insurmountably out of the wildcard race in the NL. After 93 games last year, the Mets were 39-54. This year, they’re three games ahead of that at 42-51. They finished 38-31 the rest of the way last year. I see no reason they can’t match or beat that this year to at least reach .500.
They have the reigning Cy Young, though he’s not going to repeat, but still is showing flashes of what got it for him last year. They have the probable NL rookie of the year and newly crowned HR Derby champion, who could easily eclipse 50 homers. They have a contender for the batting title who, if he didn’t have too many plate appearances last season, would have qualified to be in the rookie of the year race as well. They have a bullpen with a closer who could regain his confidence and a few talented relievers who are capable of putting it back together. I don’t expect them to be major sellers outside of expiring contracts. A record slightly above .500 could compete for a wildcard spot.
In the past week they beat both the Cards and Brewers. They have been playing quite well for a month and half now.
Their last 8 games were against the Cards, Brewers, and Rockies, (they won 6). Are you saying those teams don’t have playoff aspirations? 48 of their games have been against teams over .500, with 46 against teams under. They’ve played 12 games against the Dodgers going 5 and 7.
Yes, they’re a long shot to make the WC, and how wise it would be to not make moves in that hope is questionable. But characterizing them as playing only crappy teams with a much more difficult road ahead is just wrong.
“They will get absolutely nothing in return.”
I love how everyone plays down what the Giants would get in a trade, but then how they’ll lose out big (on a minimal return) if they keep him?
If they can’t get a top 50 guy in trade, as many assert, they may just do better with a QO.
So you believe that a player drafted in the supplemental round 33 to 40 would have more value than a player ranked 51 to 100?
So in you believe that the QO DP will be ranked 51 to 100?
Never in the history of Baseball has the last two weeks of July been more important. So many teams on the cusp. So many buyers and sellers defined. Sure is fun!
Takahiro Norimoto would’ve been at least an honorable mention if he didn’t sign that big extension with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles since he was going to be posted after this year.
Ryu is better than Bumgarner
This year maybe but if I had to choose which player is going to be more productive for the next 3 to 4 years I would pick Bumgarner. I mean aren’t you holding your breath for his next stent on the injured list?
He is rather young for cardiovascular disease. I doubt he’ll need a stent.
Bumgarner hasn’t exactly been a picture of great health over the past two seasons either, maxing out at 129 IP last season.
His injuries were freak, not chronic. HUGE difference.
Ryu has no chronic health issues, either. All of his injuries have been one-offs. Ryu has been hugely underrated since the day the Dodgers won his posting rights and he continues to be underrated today by fans who pay more attention to brand names.
SalaryCap I have no idea what your smoking but WOW. To all of that.
No doubt. I’m not sure why MLBTR seems to think any different. If we’re basing this on the last two or three seasons, Sure, maybe four or five years ago, Bumgarner would be the easy choice but now? It’s Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Call me crazy but if I’m ranking the free agent starting pitchers, I’d go:
#1 – Gerrit Cole
#2 – Hyun-Jin Ryu
#3 – Zack Wheeler
#4 – Dallas Keuchel
#5 – Madison Bumgarner
#6 – Jake Odorizzi
#7 – Cole Hamels
#8 – Alex Wood (If healthy)
#9 – Tanner Roark
#10 – Kyle Gibson
Ryu and Strasburg (assuming the opt out) are the 2 best pitchers in this class. No team would put Bumgarner or Wheeler above them.
*starting pitchers
There is an edit option
Ryu is injury prone and 4 years older than Bumgarner.
There is no way thy comes close to repeating this season
Vince Ryu is injury prone? Why as a Dodger fan who watches 150 games a yr don’t I know that? And just curious, how many games as Bum missed to non related baseball injuries. WAY more then Ryu that’s for sure. Gets old reading posts that people are just spouting off w no clue.
Gerrit Cole says hi.
Apologies, meant more above the 2 guys referenced. Cole is the top of the class.
Does anyone really believe Strasburg is going to opt out of four years and $100M?
yes, he will get a 200M contract with such a weak free agent class. You also have to consider that some of that 100M is deferred, so the actual value is less.
No
Stras isn’t opting out
It should be mentioned chapman has a signing bonus of 2 mill each year so it’s really more around 2/34 mill
All $11MM of that has already been paid.
Guys that get QOs should just look for high $ one-year deals and come back for the big year. Obviously there’s still risk there but they’d be better off doing that and hitting the market next year than overplaying their hand all winter long and the way several have. QO system is far from perfect, but it’s a known quantity that the players agreed to and they’ve done a terrible job adjusting their strategy to meet the rules of the game.
I think it’s a little unfair to blame the players since they have no way of knowing which teams/owners are going to have offseason shopping sprees. Who would’ve thought the Mets were buyers this past winter? Or that the Nats would value SP (Corbin) over Harper? And you can’t lump pitchers and hitters all in the same pool.
Curious to see how Donaldson does. Assuming he keeps up this kind production he would prove he is still relavent. But how much can he get turning 34 at the start of next season.
I’ve been an advocate for Donaldsom among an irrational faction of Braves fans who don’t like him and even I have to be skeptical of a long term deal. I wouldnt want to even give him a 3 year deal.
I want to see the Braves resign Donaldson for 2 yrs with an option for a 3rd and move Riley in the offseason for a SP or young closer. I see a lot of holes in Riley’s game and I don’t want to see Pache or Waters dealt l
There are a lot of holes in Waters game too, Pache is no sure thing with the bat. They didn’t move Riley for Realmuto, I doubt they move him this off-season.
Donaldson has been a great pick up for the Braves, but I rather have Riley at 3rd. Where you see holes in his game, I see a young player that is making adjustments as he goes. He will be the protection that Freeman and Acuña need in the line up.
If signing ryu just know he has a bad health history and paying him off of this season is a mistake. Good pitcher but not this good
Gerrit Cole is going to become a very rich man.
And that is why the Pirates had to trade one of the best pitchers in baseball when they did.
No they didn’t.
It’s true. They traded a guy coming off a 4.26 ERA 4.08 FIP and league average 100 ERA+ season who was hurt the year before that, as well.
Not “one of the best pitchers in baseball when they did”.
Tatis-Do you really think that the Pirates would have made the playoffs either last year or this year with him?Even the wild card?
Do you really think that he would resign with Pittsburgh?
1. They’d have gotten more if they’d waited a year, even with a year of control evaporating.
2. If they aren’t going to contend why did they trade for Archer?
It is true JOSH that he had had a couple of down years on lesser teams,but the competitiveness,talent and ability were always there at a very high level.Plus his injuries were relatively minor compared to those of the current crop of Pirates who cannot seem to get back on the hill.
Tatis-NH was afraid that an arm injury would occur and he would get little or nothing in return.The extra year also sweetened the deal.
NH went out of character and thought Archer could put them over the top and into the playoffs once he saw the advancement of the team last year.The five game sweep of the Brewers gave him visions of plums for the playoffs.He thought that Archer could be a number one or strong number two.Meadows and Glasnow had never quite advanced like he had hoped and he got frustrated with them.
which one signs with the angels? 1 or 7?
Cole Hammels is another good option.
Cole Hamels re-signs with the cubs..less than this year. He’s an asset to the team.
The cuhs dump chatwood and go after Gerrit Cole.
If Kyle Gibson is an honorable mention, this is one very weak class.
1% Astros
1% Yankees
98% Angels, Padres, Giants or Dodgers
Josh I know that Cole wants to play on the west coast but the Yankees are going to throw a lot of money his way since they will realize this year that good pitching is still the name of the game.
It’d be pretty funny if NYY lost out on Cole a third time
I wonder what Xander Bogaerts could have gotten had he not signed an extension. Would have drawn major interest as a FA on the younger side after putting up elite numbers.
Probably slightly less than Machado ($255m/10 yrs.?). He does currently have an opt-out after the ’22 season so I don’t think he’s left a ton on the table and will certainly elect to be a F.A. if he maintains his production.
Cole to NYY 7/200, QO
Rendon to LAA 6/189, QO
Wheeler gets QO, takes it (lol Mets)
Bumgarner to MIL 3/52, QO
JD does not opt out
Chapman opts out, re-signs with NYY for 3/63
Ryu to SEA 3/39
Ozuna takes QO
Grandal to HOU, 3/45
Odorizzi to TEX, 2/24
Donaldson to MIN, 2/44
Puig to CLE, 2/20
Gregorious to LAA, 4/56 (Trade Simmons at deadline this year)
Castellanos to DET, 1/10
Will Smith to WAS, 3/36 (70% deferred until 2030)
angels already found candidates for 3b next season. maybe 1/60 of salary of rendon. on the other hand, cole comes back home to win multiple world series.
I think the Reds might QO Puig. He seems to be pretty well liked by teammates, fans and coaches and so he might be the type of guy who the Reds would gladly bring back on a 1-year deal, even if they have to pay a bit of a premium for it.
Why would the Twins want Donaldson, especially with Arraez, Adrianza, Gonzalez, and Sano?
troll. what else?
I think Bumgarner will get 20 per and Will Smith, unless he continues to blow saves the rest of the year, will probably get 15 per.
No Will Smith?
Cole and Rendon are going to benefit from a weak list.
Wheeler will sign with the Braves next year or go back to the Mets.
Shouldn’t Ryu be ranked higher than #7?
If you read the entire article you will see they are ranked based on total contract value potential
Is this list supposed to be a joke?
What has Zack Wheeler accomplished in his career that is even remotely close to what Chapman and Ryu have done this season alone?
And Ryu is only going to command 3yr/$48 million? He’s been the best pitcher in the NL this season and has a sub-2.00 ERA the past 2 seasons. Comparing Ryu to Rich Hill is just hilarious.
He wasn’t comparing the 2 . All that was written was if hill can get 3/48 so can ryu. Did you even read the entire blurb or did you just see hill and ryu and went into rage mode