The Red Sox and Indians entered the 2019 season as popular picks to earn playoff berths. Both teams have been powerhouses in recent years, including in 2018, when the Red Sox went 108-54 en route to a World Series title and the Indians took home their third consecutive AL Central crown. Two-plus months into the season, though, Boston and Cleveland have had to sail through rougher waters than expected. Both teams are just a tad over .500 (the Red Sox are 34-32, the Indians 33-32) and currently sitting outside the AL playoff picture.
Just about everything that could have gone right did for the Red Sox a year ago. Their position players paced the entire league in runs and led the AL in fWAR, and their pitchers were toward the top of the game in ERA and fWAR. None of that’s true this season, however. While Boston continues to enjoy a formidable offense, it’s not the juggernaut it was a season ago. Last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Betts, as well as J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, World Series MVP Steve Pearce and Jackie Bradley Jr. have all seen their numbers dip. Much-improved production from Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez hasn’t been enough to offset the fallen output of that important group.
On the pitching side, ace Chris Sale has come back with a vengeance from a dreadful start, while David Price has also been outstanding. At the same time, though, late-2018 hero Nathan Eovaldi has barely pitched because of an elbow injury (and has struggled when he has taken the mound). Meanwhile, Eduardo Rodriguez’s run prevention has tailed off, though his peripherals are encouraging, Rick Porcello hasn’t been close to his best self and enemy offenses have roughed up Hector Velazquez. Those starters have handed off to a bullpen that has been somewhat shaky in adjusting to life without the departed Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly.
The Indians’ relief unit has taken enormous steps forward since 2018, on the other hand. It’s the rest of their roster that has gone backward. Top starters Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger have either battled serious injuries/illnesses or drastically underachieved. Francisco Lindor is having another great year, but his pal Jose Ramirez has gone from an MVP-level player to someone who can barely lift his OPS over .600. Michael Brantley’s now in Houston, replaced by players who have been incapable of matching his 2018 production. Jason Kipnis has been horrific, and the Indians’ offseason decision to trade Yandy Diaz for Jake Bauers simply hasn’t worked out to this point.
The Indians’ mediocre play has left them a whopping 10 1/2 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. As a result, the Tribe may have to consider making some difficult decisions this summer as the July 31 trade deadline draws nearer. For now, though, the Indians are very much in the wild-card hunt, behind the surprising Rangers by a game and a half. Boston’s even closer to Texas, which it trails by one and began a four-game series against Monday, but might have trouble overcoming the seven-game advantage the Rays and Yankees have built in the AL East. By the time the regular season wraps up, do you expect the Indians and Red Sox to be part of the league’s playoff field?
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Minnesota has nearly the highest run differential in all the baseball and especially the highest in their division by an enormous margin, with or without Kluber and Clevinger for as long as it’s been, Cleveland has a nearly nonexistent offense and they’re not trying to fix it anytime soon.
The Bosox have too much talent not to qualify for the postseason at least as the second Wild Card team. The Indians are still searching for their identity. They did complete a week at home during which they took two out of three from the Twins and two out of three from the Bronx Bombers. But there are too many question marks surrounding this Cleveland club, and the anemic hitting tends to take the wind out of the sales. Kiss a chance of catching Minnesota goodbye. A Wild Card berth would be nearly miraculous for the Tribe.
It’s amazing that CLE is above .500 given the endless number of problems on this roster. Yes, they’ve fixed the bullpen but failed to address anything else, and the needs have become so great that making any trades seems pointless. Kipnis continues to be a dead spot in the order, and all of us are just waiting for his contract to expire at this point. The OF was the worst in the majors on paper heading into the season, and to no one’s surprise that became reality. I can’t imagine ownership will approve any trades at this point, so Francona will have to make do with what he’s got the rest of the way. They’re only a bad week away from being deadline sellers, and I see that as the most likely scenario.
We will see in October won’t we? What stretch of an article.
What a stretch of a comment.
If you wrote about it in October, it’d just be, “look @ the standings”. Is the article a stretch? Sure. But it’s still interesting to think about, considering where the teams were last year vs. this year.
5.64% so far think they’ll both get in! That seems INCREDIBLY unlikely
No
Where are you, Sufferingtribe my friend?
Suffering through another Kipnis/Martin/Ramirez/Bauers at-bat.
That’s not quite as bad as a Matt Barnes meltdown in a closing situation. Yikes. Another blown Save Tonight.
Well, his stat line looks bad from last night, but he’s only blown 4 this season.
Now, take a look at the stats of Fearsomeless Foursome that I sited. That’s way, way worse than your example, because it’s been an entire season of it. In the case of Ramirez, even longer.
Plus, until he got kicked down to AAA, we had a worse example of a pitcher who was great at blowing games — Neil Ramirez.
Only blown 4! 4 is a lot! That’s 4 games that the Yankees, A’s, Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Giants, Brewers, Nats, Cards, or Pirate’s closers would’ve had
Indians window is closing. Boston might get a wild card.
Rays vs. Red Sox wild card and the Indians miss out.
Yankees will probably get the wildcard. The r
Rays will probably win the division. Tampa has played the tougher schedule between the 2 teams. TB played 10 more games against above .500 teams, scored 29 less runs (310/339) but have ALLOWED 60 less runs (210/270).
Are you kidding me? The Rays will not keep this up.
I mean id take the Yankees winning the division but the Rays undoubtedly have a very good team that is set to get Tyler Glasnow back at some point around the AS break. Is ownership extremely cheap? Yeah, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a very good team on the field right now. If ownership decides to open up its pockets at the deadline they certainly have a number of prospects to pull from.
I am hoping the Rangers somehow pull it off with a god awful rotation. But I’d be surprised if it isn’t the Rays and Sox taking the WC home.
One of them might make it, but I doubt both will. I’d love for the Indians to right the ship and make it in (they’ve always been slow starters since Francona was hired), but this year just kinda feels different.
I’m starting to come to terms with the fact that this probably isn’t their year. They or Boston could be the second wild card (the loser of the Yankees/Rays race will be the first), but I definitely don’t see the Indians AND Red Sox making it.
I think the slow starts far predate Francona. I remember them with Wedge and Acta too
Bosox squeak by into a wild card spot in the east, unless the yanks or rays completely implode.
Yankees will not implode much to the dismay of many. Rays are the sleepers this year. They’re better built for a playoff run than any team.
Any team?
Yep. Dodgers have proven they can get there just to be the choke artist of the NL. The only two teams in the AL that can hang with Tampa are the Astros and Yankees. Whichever team wins the AL will win it all.
Wouldn’t count out the twins. Especially if they get a reliever
Cleveland will make the playoffs…….next season?
The Red Sox will, yeah. The Indians will sell people off at the deadline.
I’d soft sell Boston if they are playing .500 ball a month from now. Deal the expiring contracts like Porcello, Moreland, Nunez, Pearce. See who’d be interested in Jackie Bradley. That might mean Rusney Castillo time which may not be a good thing (Red Sox fans would know better).
As for Cleveland, they buyout Kipnis and save $14-mil. If they can get a bat this offseason they can contend in 2020 with their starting pitching health and intact. Otherwise they may want to begin the slow teardown.
I would not do that. Those players all have next to no value on their contracts. Moreland might bring back a lottery ticket and it’s not as if Boston has a bunch of high level prospects waiting in the wings. The only way I’d sell off I were Boston would be if I was 9-10 games back. But even then all those guys give you is salary relief.
– Sam Travis gets to play in Boston as the everyday 1B
– Tzu-Wei Lin, when you’re healthy you get some playing time
– Other guys get playing time
– Castillo, come on up and make a case for 2020
– Bring up an arm or two from Pawtucket, let them make a case for 2020
– PORTLAND SEA DOGS…hey guys, which one of you wants a promotion to AAA?
See, the Red Sox might get a prospect out of these guys and they might not. Or a move triggers a positive reaction from a current minor league player in the system. Giving your guys a chance to play breeds optimism and shows Dombrowski where he needs to put his focus this offseason and how to convince the board why they need to spend above luxury.
For the record, Nunez brings nothing back. They could QO Porcello but the other two guys could potentially bring back a diamond in the rough, and the Red Sox should strongly consider that option.
Pearce and Nunez will bring nothing. Sam Travis had a sub .700 OPS in AAA last year and this year has a .739. Not very good for a first baseman. Lin’s about the same. Im not even sure a contender really wants Nunez or Pearce with the way they’re playing right now and the amount of teams that project to be selling similar but likely better performing players. Porcello could bring something back but they’ll likely have to eat salary because he’s making 20 mil this year. Anyway I highly doubt the Red Sox are out of contention by July 31st anyway. I don’t see that happening
A contender needing a RH bat against lefties would absolutely want Nunez and/or Pearce, garbage numbers included.
You won’t know what you have until you have those players play at the highest level. If Boston’s best case scenario is 5th overall, it’s not worth it.
Boston being buyers would be a waste of time. They aren’t catching the Yankees and they will have a hard time running down Tampa. Soft reset. That’s the best they can do – unless the next 5 weeks they get red hot.
Even if by some long shot the Indians do make the playoffs they are not built to go very far in the playoffs. So go ahead and trade Hand (for a kings ransom) and rebuild for 2022.
They’re too good for a rebuild. Their #6 SP is probably a #3 on a lot of teams. They probably missed about 20 starts so far from Clevinger, Kluber, & Carrasco. Combined with Ramirez’ horrible start, I’m guessing it’s probably cost them at least 6 games. And they don’t really have any bad contracts except Kipnis, which expires this year.
I might do a mini-rebuild by trading off Kluber or Carrasco for a young outfielder, and then using the payroll savings from that trade, plus Kipnis’ salary, and sign a better OF or 2B.
Trade Carrasco? Carlos has been diagnosed with a blood condition. “Cookie” is on the injured list and has stepped away from baseball activities for the time being. Mystery shrouds the diagnosis. Who really knows exactly what we’re dealing with in this matter. In view of this, Carrasco seems very unlikely or perhaps impossible to be considered a candidate for a trade. May everything go well for Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco has some kind of blood condition. We don’t know if when or even if he’ll return to the mound. He’s not trade able .
CLE can make the playoffs (most likely as a wild card), but I just don’t see ownership green lighting the FO to make any significant additions for the stretch run. The OF situation remains a screaming need, Kipnis is nothing more than dead weight, Ramirez’ slump has endured for almost a year now, and the bench is thin. I don’t see them making any substantial moves to address these issues aside from dumpster diving in July.
I reply to Solaris602 with three dreadful words: You’re probably right.
No,one or the other,I say Indians because of their Division
Indians suck
Yes, because taking series from Boston, Minnesota and the Yankees lately, as well as a walk off win tonight against the Reds, who have the best bullpen in the NL, are all examines of suck.
Anyway, Minnesota will start losing soon to the Red Sox and White Sox. Others will follow. Indians catch up by mid July.
I have the RS making the playoffs, but as a RS fan, I am also not that far off from selling. I think they are clearly better, but a month from now, if they are tied with 4 other teams for the 2nd WC, the chances of them making the WS is probably .25*.45*.45*.45, or 2%.
If this were the WS or SDP, for example, I might be fighting to get in. But we just won, so it is less important to me. And we have enough guys locked in for a few years, and a second tier farm maybe 2 years away from contributing. Porcello, Betts, and Holt should be on the table.
100%. Warned of this preseason. The roster is good enough that if they wanted to go out and make some midseason trades and pick up some salary, they could be a world series contender again. But the better option is to consider the unthinkable and use this opportunity to transition to the next version of the Red Sox. Betts would bring back a haul for a year and a half if you just want to make a big move or 2 and not blow things up. Then swing Martinez as a rental to another AL team considering he’s going to opt out of his deal more then likely for a few more. Can consider some lesser dumps for salary relief or low-level prospects. The team would fall this year and give way to the surprising Rays, but would be better prepared in the likely event both the Yankees and Rays continue to take steps forward in 2020. I was called nuts at the time but it’s a tricky situation and I had a feeling it was coming. There’s a lot of low-cost talent with some years left to build around and a core of pitchers you can’t deal. A fast rebuild by selling in 2019 is the best way for this group to keep rolling.
If they intended to be buyers, Kimbrel would have been brought back. This team is in a seller’s position in a seller’s market. They should use it.
Indians won’t at all, but Red Sox might make the cut
Red Sox need to trade for a reliable closer for sure. Brazier and Barnes are both failures in closer role.
I would try to get Greene from Tigers to close for Sox but not at any price.
Both – NO
Indians took series from Boston, Minnesota and the Yankees this home stand, as well as a walk off win tonight against the Reds, who have the best bullpen in the NL.
Minnesota will lose series to the Red Sox and White Sox. Others will follow. Indians catch up by mid July.
Brad Hand has been exceptionally effective for the Tribe. That was a good trade last summer for the Indians.