A long-term deal between right-hander Lucas Giolito and the White Sox “hasn’t been talked about at all,” Giolito tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “I know that’s kind of like the new thing, organizations coming to young players. But I haven’t thought about it myself, and I don’t know where the White Sox are at, either. Just keep playing, play well, and all that stuff takes care of itself,” Giolito said.
It isn’t surprising that the club has yet to broach a deal with Giolito’s reps at CAA Sports, as players in general prefer to stay away from in-season extension talks for fear of distraction. Needless to say, the Sox don’t want to do anything to throw Giolito off during what has been a breakout season for the 24-year-old. Giolito has a 2.74 ERA, 10.97 K/9, and 3.59 K/BB rate over 85 1/3 innings for Chicago, with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate that easily tops his previous career high of 10.1% (in 2017), and a drastic reduction in the home run issues that plagued Giolito over his first three seasons in the big leagues. The righty has only an 0.8 HR/9 in 2019, as opposed to a 1.6 HR/9 in his 240 innings prior to the current seasons.
There isn’t any particular rush for the White Sox to seek out an extension, as Giolito isn’t eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 season and free agency until after 2023. Plus, it could be that the front office wants to see just a bit more positive evidence before making a big financial commitment given how Giolito struggled last season, though MLB success has long been predicted for the right-hander. If it weren’t for elbow problems that eventually required Tommy John surgery, Giolito might have very well been the first pick of the 2012 draft, and was still taken 16th overall by the Nationals. After returning to health and becoming a staple of top-prospect rankings (Giolito was a consensus top-five prospect prior to the 2016 season), he was part of the trade package the Nationals sent to the White Sox for Adam Eaton in December 2016.
As Van Schouwen notes, the White Sox have been proactive in extending young talent since Rick Hahn took over as general manager. Such notable names as Eaton, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, Nate Jones, Tim Anderson and (just this spring) Eloy Jimenez have all signed extensions under Hahn’s regime, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if the Sox approach the likes of Giolito or Yoan Moncada about a multi-year contract in the offseason.
In terms of possible comps, Giolito will have between two and three years (two years, 80 days) of MLB service time if he remains on Chicago’s 25-man roster for the rest of the season, which seems like a lock. German Marquez had a similar amount of time on his MLB clock when he inked a five-year, $43MM extension with Colorado in early April, though Marquez is about seven months younger than Giolito and had more of a proven track record at the Major League level. Luis Severino also has had more consistent big league success than Giolito, though Severino’s four-year, $40MM extension with the Yankees may also have not have been an ideal model since that contract covered four arbitration years (Severino is a Super Two player).
Too early to consider an extension after last year. The agent would simply use an offer as a floor. He’s been great in 19 so far but look at Wheeler. 1/2 a season just isn’t much to base it on.
Approaching him now is how you get the bargain extension. The longer he performs the more dollars that’s going to cost the ChiSox. He was supposed to be this guy all along. It just took some time for him to find his footing. I’d try to extend him at a rate just below that of German Marquez. That’d be fair to Giolito at this point given his limited track record. He’s only 24 years of age. If you can lock him until he’s 31 at that kind of rate I don’t see why you don’t give it a try.
Zack Wheeler? I don’t think the Mets would’ve regretted locking him into an extension either. He’s a 3.7 FIP guy this year and has shown more in the past. He’s probably looking at an Eovaldi size contract this offseason. If he gets that as I suspect he will, an extension likely would’ve cost a little bit less. They would’ve made up for the overpayment of his arb years with the additional years of control they would’ve gotten moving forward
I agree with Bleacherbum. I brought up Wheeler because the end of the year in 18 he was a stud. I don’t look at new wave stats. Anyone who watched him this year would not resign him for big money. Too much risk. jbigz, my concern is no longer likely will sign at a bargain rate so why not make sure 19 in not the aberration?
I can’t imagine any gm giving wheeler eovaldi money. Eovaldi shouldn’t have gotten eovaldi money.
Eovaldi is Brandon McCarthy 2.0.
Technically I agree but someone was paying him. Sox gave him and Pearce rewards for their heroics but the six million or so extra for 2019 could have helped in the pen.
4/67 is all Eovaldi got. Wheeler has the same electric arm and is on pace to throw 185+ frames. I think he’s going to get paid pretty well.
Eovaldi got hot at the right time. If Wheeler gets trades and turns it on to help a team win then he could. His injury history also hurts but NE proved it’s not a killer when you perform. As of now, I see a one or two year prove it to us deal
Time will tell but Wheeler has now been durable for 2 seasons. Assuming he finishes this one out. FIP And XFIP peg him around 3.70. He does that or better for around 200 frames again and I think he’ll have no problem getting paid. Time will tell on that but pitching is always a scarce resource. Particularly for guys who are on 190-200 innings pace.
In a pitchers park.
Wayyyyy to early to be discussing an extension with him.
way too early for this. this season could very well be a blip.
….because the Blake Snell extension is working out soooooooooooo well for Tampa……
MOST extensions are terrible ideas. The Astros let three high-quality performers (Kuechel, Morton, Marwin) go last winter; obviously they’re suffering profusely.
Sure, you might save yourself a few bucks. So with that hope (faint as it is), you remove one of the prime motivators (not the only one, I grant you) that inspire performance. And you limit available funding for player development, et al; it all comes out of the same pot.
The ONLY legit reason to extend is fan identification with a certain player. But that’s a factor disappearing before our very eyes
I’d argue the opposite regarding extensions. Most are calculated risks. Look at what some extensions have done for teams. Chris Sale, Mike Trout (1st Deal), Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Whit Merrifield all signed incredibly team friendly extensions that provided so much value. Even look at guys like Adam Eaton and Chris Archer. Their cheap, team friendly extensions are almost the sole reason they brought back amazing packages to the team that extended them.
Now if you’re talking about older guys who you’re paying into their mid to late 30’s like Cabrera or Stanton, then I’d agree. But Giolito won’t be apart of that group.
Sorry I think merrifield will provide value obviously he hasn’t yet
How has he not provided value? He’s on pace for an OPS around .850 and 4+ WAR while playing anywhere they need him to play on the field.
I don’t think his extension has even kicked in yet lol. It’s going to be one that does though. In my initial post I said all those guys have provided great value on their extensions. Not the case yet for Whit.
JD. Agreed IF you believe in the player, No one knows which version he really is. Depends on what he expects today.
Blake Snell 3.38 FIP 3.15 xFIP. 12 K/9 .301 WOBA .265 xWOBA. That extension is going fine year one. The ERA doesn’t match right now…..For Christ sake how can we say this nonsense? If he was lucking into a 3.10 ERA but was walking 6 batters per game and striking out 5 the extension would be all good? Let’s have some patience; he still looks like a very good pitcher. He wasn’t going to be the guy he was last year. All his peripherals screamed slight regression into a guy who could be a high 2’s-low 3’s guy. Even with the bad bottom line start I fully expect him to land somewhere in the lower mid 3’s by season end.
What this tells me is the Sox FO isn’t entirely sold on Giolito yet, and they’re waiting out the season to see if he truly is for real before even considering an extension. Whether or not any of us believe he is/isn’t for real doesn’t really matter, what the Sox FO thinks is all that matters.
Tonight will be a good test in determining whether or not he is for real. I want to see how he bounces back from the Cubs game, and the Red Sox (in Boston) are a great test for him. I really do hope he’s for real and he has permanently turned the corner, but I just need more evidence. The Astros and Yankees helped in his favor, but otherwise he’s beat a bunch of laughing stocks. If he’s still pitching this well into Sept, then I’m sold and the Sox FO should consider extending him.
If they do extend him, it would be better to do it late this year or next, because the AAV will be much more favorable for the Sox, and AAV is what matters now with the luxury tax (not that the Sox need to worry about that anytime soon, but in ’23 or ’24, it may matter a great deal).
He lost control in the last inning. Too much time around Cooper is taking a toll. 7 walks over the last 10 innings.
He wasn’t dominant last night, but he didn’t get lit up either. Even if he wasn’t pitching his best, he at least kept them in the game, and that’s what you want the worst case scenario to be. Let’s see how he does to the ASB and the few games after the ASB, now that he’s had some adversity.
Even if he doesn’t rise back up to pitch like a Cy Young candidate the rest of the year, he’s proven he’s worthy of a rotation spot (and more than just a #5) for any MLB team.
He actually was pretty dominant through the first 5. 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7. Doing that AT Fenway is extremely impressive. I’m fairly certain he started developing a blister that got to him in the 6th. He randomly, completely lost control and was looking at his hand frequently.
Against that team in that park, I’ll take that performance all day.