In case you haven’t noticed, the Tigers are rebuilding. General manager Al Avila has spoken often in the past about the need to build toward a better tomorrow, and he was frank during Spring Training about Nicholas Castellanos’ trade candidacy. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi wrote today that the Tigers are willing to listen on veteran players, but that’s already a well-known fact — not exactly a new revelation.
The greater question is: just how many appealing pieces do the Tigers even possess? Morosi lists the usual suspects, citing Castellanos, Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene as potentially movable assets. Beyond that trio, appeal in Detroit veterans will be limited.
Most of the one-year signees the Tigers added over the winter have minimal value because they’re on the injured list and/or performing poorly. Josh Harrison underwent hamstring surgery this month and didn’t hit when healthy. His double-play partner, Jordy Mercer, is on the IL for the second time and has turned in the worst offensive rates of his career in the 19 games he’s managed to play. Tyson Ross is out indefinitely. Matt Moore looked great for two starts… before he had season-ending knee surgery. Jordan Zimmermann’s contract has looked impossible to move since 2016, and now he has a UCL injury (though he’s trying to pitch through it). Miguel Cabrera? No one was touching that contract even before the Tigers announced the “chronic changes” to his knee that will impact the rest of Cabrera’s career. Aside from Greene, the bullpen’s numbers aren’t especially impressive.
Detroit does have a pair of somewhat interesting, relatively young options it could market in addition to Boyd, Greene and Castellanos, although neither is anywhere near free agency.
Super-utilityman Niko Goodrum has played all four infield positions and all three outfield slots since the Tigers picked him up as a minor league free agent in the 2017-18 offseason. In 740 plate appearances as a Tiger, Goodrum has batted .241/.315/.419 with 22 homers and 16 steals. This season, his average exit velocity (89.3 mph) is in the 77th percentile, while his average sprint speed is in the 93rd percentile of MLB players, per Statcast. In some respects, he’s like Detroit’s version of Marwin Gonzalez — albeit with a lesser overall track record. He’s controlled for four years beyond 2019, so there’s no urgency to move him, but teams looking for a versatile upgrade on the bench could look at Goodrum as an intriguing possibility.
In the outfield, Detroit has seen JaCoby Jones explode at the plate recently. On May 4, the 27-year-old Jones’ OPS sat at a lowly .413. In 127 plate appearances since that time, he’s mashed to the tune of a .315/.389/.595 slash with 16 extra-base hits (eight doubles, a triple, seven homers) and a perfect 5-for-5 in the stolen base column. He’s had his share of BABIP luck, but Jones’ K/BB numbers have improved over that stretch as well. Contact seems like it’ll always be an issue, but there’s a fairly interesting blend of power and speed with Jones. Stastcast puts him in elite company (93rd percentile) both in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. He’s in the 81st percentile in terms of sprint speed.
Defensively, Jones was excellent in 2018 (10 DRS, +6.1 UZR, 7 Outs Above Average), but those same metrics have soured on his center field glovework in 2019 (-7, -6.4 and 0, respectively). Like Goodrum, he’s controllable through 2023. I don’t know that teams are going to line up to acquire Jones based on what amounts to five weeks of strong offensive output, but he’s at least worth monitoring over the next several weeks. There aren’t going to be too many appealing center fielders on the trade market, after all.
As for the three most logical chips — Boyd, Greene and Castellanos — they’ll face varying levels of interest. Boyd is appealing to any club within a stone’s throw of contending, as he’s in the midst of what looks to be a legitimate breakout season. The 28-year-old is controlled through 2022 and has thus far pitched to a 3.08 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9. Fielding-independent metrics are buying him as a breakout star (2.91 FIP, 3.20 SIERA), and only five qualified pitchers have a better K-BB% than Boyd’s 26.2 percent mark. The cost to acquire him should be enormous, given the time he’s still controlled.
Greene won’t carry as high a price tag, given that he’s controlled through 2020. But he’s sitting on a 1.00 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (27.4 percent), walk percentage (6.6 percent) and ground-ball rate (52.2 percent). He’s unequivocally elevated his stock in 2019, making the Tigers’ decision not to move him at last year’s deadline look wise. Like Boyd, Greene is appealing to any contender.
Castellanos, meanwhile, faces a less robust market. Defensive metrics suggest he’s improved in right field but is still below average there. More concerning is the fact that Castellanos hasn’t hit that much in 2019. His 21 doubles lead the AL, but his overall .263/.315/.454 slash is roughly league average, per OPS+ and wRC+, and he’s on pace for fewer home runs than last year’s 23. Casteallnos has seen his line-drive rate dip by more than seven percent, and his hard-hit rate has fallen off a bit as well. Corner bat rentals never yield all that great a return these days — as the Tigers learned in trading J.D. Martinez two years ago — and Castellanos’ downturn in production won’t help the team’s cause. There’s certainly time for a rebound, but it’s tough to see Castellanos fetching a sizable return even if his bat wakes up in the next few weeks.
The general expectation is that the Tigers will continue their tear-down this summer, but the pieces they have to market, in the end, aren’t that plentiful. Greene seems like a lock to be moved for a decent haul, and because Castellanos isn’t playing like a qualifying offer candidate, it’s probably best to move him even if the return is modest. But the Tigers’ best asset, Boyd, is controlled for three more years and the only other somewhat interesting pieces are controlled even longer. If the team doesn’t move Boyd between now and July 31, the summer market might not boost the Tigers’ farm as much as fans would hope.
ntorsky
I’m predicting that Castellanos will really turn it on in about a week and absolutely mash until the deadline, JaCoby Jones style. If he doesn’t, maybe Detroit can extend him for a more modest price, but I’m certainly not about to hold my breath on that.
racosun
That might be exactly what the Tigers need him to do, bump that value up beyond a bucket of baseballs into a Arby’s roast beef sandwich territory.
Johhos
My first thought at the headline was “ more than the Orioles”. For my Phillies though, I’d love to have Boyd and/or Greene.
lowtalker1
If someone wanted Castellanos. Then someone would have him. No one wants him. Tigers pushed hard to move him in the off season.
ScottCFA
Difference is that no one needed him in the offseason. No one can predict injuries, but they will happen. He has worked on his defense and it shows – subpar still, but not disastrous. There are several teams that could use Castellanos. The question is will anyone give the Tigers enough to justify doing a deal. That was the big hangup during the winter, the Tigers’ high asking price for a good, but definitely not great, ballplayer.
jbigz12
It shouldn’t take much. If you offer Castellanos the QO he’s going to accept it. Or if he doesn’t, he’s making a big mistake. They certainly won’t get a lot for him but unless they want to extend him long term I’d get something for him.
SalaryCapMyth
The Braves needed a right fielder and moved to Markakis. There was a lot of talk about thw Braves/Tigers linning up. Also the Phillies signed two outfielders one of which was not named Harper so the Phillies line up.
The Tigers simply were not interested enough in what they were being offered or they overestimated how valuable all bat no glove outfielders were. NC has improved his glove bur from the perspective of the 2018 season he was a catastrophe in the field.
Melchez
Castellanos will be a tough sell, but he does hit well against lefties. .293/.388/.537 this year and very similar to his career marks of .295/.350/..505. A team like the Rays who face a bunch of lefties from NY and Boston should have some interest. Meadows batting average has dropped 30 points in the past week. He could be a DH that can play RF every now and again.
Milwaukee might have an interest. They play the Cubs who have 3 lefty starters and the Dodgers have a bunch of lefty starters. He would be more of a 4th OFer for them with Braun getting some off time and playing 1B every now and again. Aguilar is having a terrible season, so there might be a need for a right handed hitter there.
The Phillies lost McCutchen for the season. Philly is a hitters park, so less area to cover. Put Bruce in left, Harper in center and Nick in right. It’s a terrible alignment, but if they get an early lead, they could put in a defensive OFer or two late in the game.
therealryan
I don’t see Castellanos as a fit for the Rays. The Rays already have a Castellanos clone on the roster in Avi Garcia and Garcia’s contract is less than half of Castellanos’.
bjupton100
Garcia is the same only better for TB. He has turned it up a little bit the last few weeks and steals some bases while playing good defense. I had thought of him playing some dh for TB but I think they could get someone better for the price.
SalaryCapMyth
If the Brewers were going to trade the remainder of their farm for anything it would be pitching. Even if they were going to trade for a position player they have bigger holes than the OF. They have worse problems at 1st and 3rd.
As for the Phillies, every Phillies fan should cringe at the thought of an outfield of Bruce/Harper/Castellinos. I know NC has improved but with that outfield you might be better off replacing them with three baskets out there and hoping the ball falls in them.
Ejemp2006
Oh my, the old three basket outfield made famous by Sparky Anderson’s Tigers. Great reference!
Wish Tigers would trade Nick and commit to a speed team that plays to their park. Why not trade him to a fringe contender and maximize return by eating a bad contract? Tigers send Jones and Nick to Rockies. Rockies send back Desmond and beautiful prospect. Nick plays first in Denver. Desmond plays center in Detroit. We like? A lot?
its_happening
Still can’t believe the Tigers didn’t deal Castellanos in the offseason. Now before you step in to say, “well, few teams were willing give up much because of _______”, all Detroit would have needed was 1 player coming back that would be a hit. Then they fade in the standings, draft near the very top and suddenly they are on-track to compete in 2022. Sometimes a trade helps you in other ways besides the players you receive.
andyg37
Their place in the standings wouldn’t change with or without him so I’m not really sure I see your point. All that matters is what they receive.
its_happening
The point was leverage. Even if Castellanos was hitting better the Tigers had good leverage, and a team trading for him could QO him at the end of the season. That was the point. And yes, I’m sure they’d be lower in the overall standings without him. Two more losses at this point puts them below Toronto and Miami, good for 3rd last overall.
Melchez
I thought Houston would want Niko Goodrum to replace Marwyn Gonzalez. They are very similar… Niko is a poor mans version of Gonzalez. Switch hitter that’s very versatile and has some speed and power. Dodgers might be interested with the loss of Seager.
As desperate as teams are for arms, I thought Daniel Norris might be on this list. He’s not very good, but he’s still young and can give you 5 innings. His era is skewed by two terrible outings. Minus those two his era goes from 4.52 to 3.63. His K rate is decent at 7.2/9. He was over 10 last year. He’s young, controllable and breathing…
Finally, Brandon Dixon might be a decent player. Reminds me of a right handed Max Muncy. Big powerful guy that will play anywhere you ask him to play. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, OF… he’ll do it. His OBP is nothing near Munc, but maybe with some coaching… he might improve.
None of these would cost much and could help a contender. Hopefully the Tigers can get a young prospect that has a high ceiling and hope he reaches it. They need to gamble on some teenagers, they have time to develop them.
Melchez
I wrote off Jacoby Jones… he has really improved the past three weeks. .254/.328/462… not bad considering the beginning of May he was at .138/.206/.207. I was listening to a recent broadcast and the announcers said he changed his batting stance and it’s really helped. I know before he was stepping in the bucket… not sure what his stance is now.
Oxford Karma
Shane Greene has a good stint on the Yankees. If Betances can’t go, he would be a decent option, and wouldn’t cost more than a mid level prospect or two.
Melchez
I think a team like the Braves would be more willing to part with better prospects than the Yankees. Greene would slide into the closer role and push everyone back one spot. It would make their pen deeper. Braves got Kuechel, now they need to get their closer.
Last year it seemed like Greene was struggling to get through his one inning. He’d walk a guy, give up a hit. Maybe a run… this year he’s getting the batters out fairly quickly. Twice in the last 6 games, he’s thrown 7 pitches to get 3 outs.
Dustin Michels
Muller for Green?
Tigers need hitting but Waters is to much of an ask imo.
jbigz12
I think they’d probably try to deal Wentz or Allard for Greene first. Assuming that’s atlanta’s Target. I suspect if they add Greene they’re going to look for another reliever as well because I think Greene profiles better as a set up man.
Dustin Michels
Good info thank you
Though from the Tigers perspective I would not do it for Wentz or Allard. I would trade Greene for Muller and have Muller join Mize/Manning/Faedo in AA Erie as the future quartet SP in the Tigers rotation by mid 2020
jbigz12
Yeah I mean honestly you might get both of those guys in a deal from Atlanta. They’ve both hurt their stock. I’d just look at the Kelvin Herrera return the Royals got last year as a comp. That package wasn’t all that great but none of the packages for rental relievers really were. Britton, Familia, etc. Greene has a history of shaky performance even though he’s shown improvement this year those questions will still linger. I just don’t imagine the Tigers getting a whole lot for him. A guy like Allard is major league ready and could step into the rotation and give you innings. Even though I don’t see much upside beyond a #4 or 5 guy there.
Dustin Michels
I see your points but Allard would get smoked period imo let alone the AL. I see long reliever type with him. Sorry no deal can be struck lol
jbigz12
That could certainly be the case. I don’t know where Greene May wind up and I’d personally target some 18 year old lottery ticket types if I were Detroit because he won’t bring back a top prospect today. But a guy with the upside of an Allard or a Wentz is also a possibility. If this years market is anything like last years the return will most likely be one of those options.
jdgoat
This is not a rumour or transaction…. am I doing this right?
scarfish
Guess you’re just ruffled
DarkSide830
only those three are options to get any return, ane maybe goodrum if you’re lucky. Jones will come back down to earth soon enough.
Doc_Retro
What about Spencer Turnbull? He’s an unhearalded rookie having a ROY type season for an organization deep in pitching prospects. Would a cheap, controllable arm bring a decent return?
Melchez
Turnbull has been fantastic and I doubt many people know it. He was never a top prospect, he just came out of nowhere. Last year he had an era over 6, but his FIP was 2.85. This year his era is 2.78 and his FIP is 3.70.
Another surprise has been LHP Nick Ramirez. 2.25 era out of the pen. He usually pitches multiple innings and could possibly start.
GarryHarris
Nick Ramirez is walking too many batters but, there’s hope.
GarryHarris
The Tigers have some players that are desirable and therefor, tradable: Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Daniel Norris, Shane Greene, Niko Goodrum, Brandon Dixon and JaCoby Jones.
No one wants the players the Tigers most want to trade Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann and Nick Castellanos.
The front office completely failed in free agency this season. However, I made a list of free agents I hoped the Tigers would sign in a past post. I wiffed on the pitchers too but I’m not a pro scout:
Asdrubal Cabrera, Freddy Galvis, Adeiny Hechavarria, Eric Sogard, Derek Dietrich, Martin Maldinado, Derek Holland, Matt Shoemaker, Matt Moore and Matt Bush.
kevin73
Boyd will probably be shipped off and the Tigers are hoping that he keeps up what he’s been doing so that they can a get a pretty good package for him, Castellanos is also another one of the Tigers limited number of good trade pieces.
GarryHarris
I can’t find a single team that wants Nicholas Castellanos, not even the Tigers. He’s reverted back to losing games with his lousy defense.